Map 1: Overall Value Development Index
4. Conclusions and prospects
In our essay, we evaluated the latest wave of World Values Survey data. Our article is based on a standard IBM-SPSS XXII analysis of the data. Very large arrays of negative phenomena, which cannot be overlooked anymore by
contemporary social science, are clearly associated with the loss of religion.
This holds for the majority of nations around the world, irrespective of the predominant religious denominations. Negative phenomena are on the rise especially in Western countries and in the former communist countries of Eastern Europe, where they spread most rapidly, and where they endanger, in the end, the very existence of the Open Society. Our results, based on the factor analysis of the opinions of 41178 global representative citizens from 45
countries, for whom data for all our 78 variables were available, also show the following to hold:
Inglehart’s optimism completely vindicated
-
Inglehart’s optimism mostly vindicated (minor development crises only at very early stages of secularization)
Support for democracy
Inglehart’s optimism vindicated, but reversals at highest stages of
secularization:
Violent society
Severe development crises at middle stages of secularization
No trust in the state of law
Shadow economy and violence
Post-material activism
Xenophobia and racism
Distrust in transnational capital and Universities
Fatigue of democracy
Outright secularization pessimism vindicated for most stages of the
secularization process and positive turns only at very high stages of secularization
Lack of entrepreneurial spirit Outright secularization pessimism vindicated
Distance to altruistic values
Anti-Hayek/anti-Max Weber
Graph 4 now shows the diagrams of the mean country factor scores (y-axis) as predicted by secularism and secularism squared (secularism: x- axis). Graph 3, so to speak, presents the new laws of global values and development, as they emerge from this article.
Graph 4: The thorny paths of secularization. Mean country factor scores (y-axis) as predicted by secularism and secularism squared (secularism: x- axis)
An analysis of the emerging trends regarding the relationship of value structures to economic convergence also seems to suggest that in contrast to Inglehart’s secularist interpretation, value change is becoming destructive indeed and undermines the very basis of economic growth in the West. 15 Trust and work ethics all have an influence on the economic growth rate of today: no trust in the state of law, distrust in transnational capital and Universities, and lack of
entrepreneurial spirit are among the major growth bottlenecks, while our Value Development Index is positively related to the economic convergence process between the nations since the global economic crisis of 2007/2008. International economic data (see: https://uibk.academia.edu/ArnoTausch/Documentation-for-books-and-articles) also suggest that the shifting of global economic weights away from Europe and benefitting the world of Islam and the world of
immigration is absolutely correct (see Table 4 and Table 5).
15 Poorer nations grow faster than richer countries. The well-known facts of economic convergence, analyzed by Barro, suggest to test the effects of social values on economic growth by correlating social values with economic convergence, measured here by the residuals from the non-linear function of average economic growth rates, predicted by the natural logarithm of GDP per capita and GDP per capita square in the initial phase of the growth process. Other procedures would bias the results in favor of poorer nations, whose economic growth “automatically” tends to be higher; see also Barro, 1991, 1998, 2012; Barro and Sala-i-Martin, 1991.
Table 4: the bi-variate correlations of economic convergence, 2008-2013
distrust in transnational capital and Universities
-0,299 8,923
lack of entrepreneurial spirit -0,256 6,539
social democratic orientation -0,141 1,976
careless rejecting of work, global citizenship, but trusting people
-0,138 1,911
post material activism 0,163 2,669
happiness and economic well-being 0,224 5,019
Value Development Index 0,251 6,321
Table 5: the bi-variate correlations of economic convergence with global structure data
Pearson correlation with
convergence
R^2
years of membership in EMU, 2010
-0,157 2,477
social security expenditure per GDP average 1990s (ILO)
-0,139 1,944
Years of membership in the EU, 2010
-0,132 1,738
Muslim population share per total population
0,146 2,143
Membership in the Islamic Conference
0,157 2,461
MNC outward investments (stock) per GDP
0,183 3,349
% world population 0,198 3,932
Immigration - Share of population 2005 (%)
0,253 6,392
Annual population growth rate, 1975-2005 (%)
0,310 9,620
net international migration rate, 2005-2010
0,376 14,143
Appendix Map 1a: average economic growth rates 2008-2013
-4,84 -2,74 -0,64 1,46 3,56 5,66 7,76 9,86 11,96 14,06
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Appendix Map 1b: economic convergence, 2008-2013 (residuals from the regression natural log GDP per capita and natural log GDP per capita^2 by around 2005 on average economic growth (GDP per capita) 2008-2013)
-6,58 -4,45 -2,32 -0,19 1,94 4,08 6,21 8,34 10,47 12,60
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Appendix Map 2: no trust in the state of law
-1,68 -1,35 -1,03 -0,70 -0,38 -0,05 0,27 0,59 0,92 1,24
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
no Confidence: Justice System/Courts 0,783 no Confidence: The Police 0,762
no Confidence: The Government 0,738 no Confidence: The Civil Services 0,652 no Confidence: Armed Forces 0,640 no Confidence: The Press 0,574
no Confidence: Banks 0,448 no Confidence: Universities 0,426
no Confidence: Major Companies 0,411
Slovenia (2011) 0,919 Peru (2012) 0,826
Ukraine (2011) 0,616 Mexico (2012) 0,523 Trinidad and Tobago (2011)
0,515
Poland (2012) 0,514
Malaysia (2012) -0,672 Jordan (2014) -0,682
China (2012) -0,792
Uzbekistan (2011) -1,677
Appendix Map 3: shadow economy and violence
-0,54 -0,34 -0,13 0,08 0,28 0,49 0,70 0,90 1,11 1,32
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Justifiable: cheating on taxes 0,777 Justifiable: Stealing property 0,775
Justifiable: someone accepting a bribe 0,760
Justifiable: avoiding a fare on public transport 0,755 Justifiable: claiming government benefits 0,711
Justifiable: Violence against other people 0,539 Justifiable: For a man to beat his wife 0,448
Philippines (2012) 1,111 Algeria (2013) 0,728 Lebanon (2013) 0,566 Mexico (2012) 0,558 Russian Federaton (2011)
0,487
Turkey (2011) -0,434 Japan (2010) -0,440 Ghana (2012) -0,487
Trinidad and Tobago (2011) -0,530
Azerbaijan (2011) -0,545
Appendix Map 4: post material activism
-0,60 -0,40 -0,21 -0,01 0,19 0,39 0,58 0,78 0,98 1,17
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Active/Inactive membership of environmental organization 0,710
Active/Inactive membership of charitable/humanitarian organization 0,707
Active/Inactive membership: Consumer organization 0,686 Active/Inactive membership of art, music, educational 0,668 Active/Inactive membership of sport or recreation 0,606
Active/Inactive membership of labour unions 0,580 Active/Inactive membership of church or religious organization
0,401
Taiwan (2012) 0,976 Sweden (2011) 0,734 Rwanda (2012) 0,680 Australia (2012) 0,672 Nigeria (2011) 0,577 Philippines (2012) 0,536 Turkey (2011) -0,536
Armenia (2011) -0,568 Azerbaijan (2011) -0,578 Tunisia (2013) -0,600
Appendix Map 5: secularism
-1,25 -0,91 -0,57 -0,23 0,11 0,45 0,79 1,13 1,47 1,81
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
never attend religious services 0,728 How important is God in your life -0,699
Important child qualities: religious faith -0,672
Active/Inactive membership of church or religious organization -0,538
Justifiable: divorce 0,471
Democracy: Religious authorities interpret the laws. -0,407 Schwartz: tradition not important 0,318
Sweden (2011) 1,472 China (2012) 1,284
Netherlands (2012) 1,262 Estonia (2011) 1,260 Slovenia (2011) 1,097 Japan (2010) 1,081
Australia (2012) 1,042 Zimbabwe (2012) -1,059 Ghana (2012) -1,185
Nigeria (2011) -1,251
Appendix Map 6: distance to altruistic values & G'd
-0,93 -0,65 -0,38 -0,11 0,16 0,43 0,70 0,97 1,24 1,51
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Schwartz: not important looking after the environment 0,731 Schwartz: tradition not important 0,687
Schwartz: not important always behave properly 0,676
Schwartz: not important to do something for the good of society 0,670 How important is God in your life -0,367
Japan (2010) 1,241
Netherlands (2012) 0,938 Rwanda (2012) 0,777 South Korea (2010) 0,687 Yemen (2014) -0,551
Colombia (2012) -0,552 Cyprus (2011) -0,576
Jordan (2014) -0,810 Libya (2014) -0,867
Uzbekistan (2011) -0,925
Appendix Map 7: social democratic orientation
-0,78 -0,55 -0,32 -0,09 0,15 0,38 0,61 0,84 1,07 1,31
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Democracy: The state makes people's incomes equal 0,715 Democracy: People receive state aid for unemployment. 0,674
Democracy: Governments tax the rich and subsidize the poor. 0,644 Democracy: Civil rights protect people’s liberty against oppression.
0,477
Democracy: Religious authorities interpret the laws. 0,444 Democracy: People choose their leaders in free elections. 0,372 Democracy: Women have the same rights as men. 0,365
Pakistan (2012) 1,075 Turkey (2011) 0,725
Uzbekistan (2011) 0,719 Ukraine (2011) 0,670 China (2012) 0,545
Sweden (2011) -0,521 Japan (2010) -0,557
Trinidad and Tobago (2011) -0,617
Australia (2012) -0,701 United States (2011) -0,784
Appendix Map 8: support for democracy
-0,68 -0,41 -0,15 0,12 0,38 0,65 0,92 1,18 1,45 1,71
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Democracy: People choose their leaders in free elections. 0,628 Importance of democracy 0,601
Democracy: Civil rights protect people’s liberty against oppression.
0,537
Democracy: Women have the same rights as men. 0,531
reject: Political system: Having a democratic political system -0,517 Justifiable: divorce 0,395
Democracy: Religious authorities interpret the laws. -0,363 reject: University is more important for a boy than for a girl 0,338
Sweden (2011) 1,446 Netherlands (2012) 0,995 Australia (2012) 0,981 Cyprus (2011) 0,622
Japan (2010) 0,588
United States (2011) 0,562 Azerbaijan (2011) -0,503 Philippines (2012) -0,604 Pakistan (2012) -0,648 Kyrgyzstan (2011) -0,678
Appendix Map 9: the violent society
-0,55 -0,33 -0,11 0,11 0,33 0,55 0,77 0,99 1,21 1,43
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Justifiable: For a man to beat his wife 0,844 Justifiable: Parents beating children 0,802
Justifiable: Violence against other people 0,771 Justifiable: someone accepting a bribe 0,526 Justifiable: Stealing property 0,485
Justifiable: cheating on taxes 0,442
Rwanda (2012) 1,213 Philippines (2012) 0,718 Zimbabwe (2012) 0,656 Nigeria (2011) 0,547 Singapore (2012) 0,546 Poland (2012) -0,446
South Korea (2010) -0,447 Japan (2010) -0,462
Romania (2012) -0,482 Chile (2011) -0,548
Appendix Map 10: xenophobia and racism
-0,61 -0,39 -0,16 0,07 0,29 0,52 0,75 0,97 1,20 1,43
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
rejecting neighbours: People of a different race 0,810 rejecting neighbours: People of a different religion 0,769 rejecting neighbours: Immigrants/foreign workers 0,759
Libya (2014) 1,199
Azerbaijan (2011) 0,815 Lebanon (2013) 0,712 Palestine (2013) 0,681 Malaysia (2012) 0,658 South Korea (2010) 0,586 Sweden (2011) -0,575 Colombia (2012) -0,585 Uruguay (2011) -0,599 Trinidad and Tobago (2011) -0,614
Appendix Map 11: happiness and economic well-being
-0,70 -0,50 -0,30 -0,11 0,09 0,29 0,49 0,69 0,88 1,08
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Satisfaction with your life 0,810
Satisfaction with financial situation of household 0,717 Feeling of happiness (unhappy) -0,716
Mexico (2012) 0,883 Colombia (2012) 0,658 Ecuador (2013) 0,620 Armenia (2011) -0,530 Iraq (2012) -0,548
Zimbabwe (2012) -0,626 Belarus (2011) -0,635 Ukraine (2011) -0,685 Tunisia (2013) -0,698 Palestine (2013) -0,792
Appendix Map 12: lack of entrepreneurial spirit
-1,34 -1,06 -0,78 -0,50 -0,22 0,06 0,34 0,62 0,90 1,18
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Schwartz: not important to be rich 0,626
Schwartz: not important adventure and taking risks 0,616
Schwartz: not important to think up new ideas and be creative 0,575 Older people are a burden on society 0,368
I do not see myself as a world citizen 0,354
Azerbaijan (2011) 0,898 Ukraine (2011) 0,556 Japan (2010) 0,551
Taiwan (2012) 0,497 Romania (2012) 0,494 Belarus (2011) 0,476 Zimbabwe (2012) -0,511 Rwanda (2012) -0,693 Ghana (2012) -1,125
Nigeria (2011) -1,340
Appendix Map 13: older generation with low education and high fertility
-0,68 -0,52 -0,36 -0,20 -0,04 0,12 0,28 0,44 0,60 0,76
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
How many children do you have 0,738 Age 0,692
Highest educational level attained -0,554
Philippines (2012) 0,597 Malaysia (2012) 0,458 Ecuador (2013) 0,356 Taiwan (2012) -0,302 Algeria (2013) -0,315 Russian Federaton (2011) -0,344
Cyprus (2011) -0,371
Azerbaijan (2011) -0,476 Libya (2014) -0,501
Tunisia (2013) -0,679
Appendix Map 14: distrust in transnational capital and Universities
-0,83 -0,60 -0,37 -0,14 0,09 0,32 0,55 0,78 1,01 1,24
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
no Confidence: Major Companies 0,754 no Confidence: Banks 0,675
no Confidence: Universities 0,657
no Confidence: The Civil Services 0,447 no Confidence: The Press 0,337
Jordan (2014) 1,013
Tunisia (2013) 0,856 Yemen (2014) 0,826
Palestine (2013) 0,727 Iraq (2012) 0,597
Nigeria (2011) -0,525 Estonia (2011) -0,554 Zimbabwe (2012) -0,567 Taiwan (2012) -0,596 Ghana (2012) -0,834
Appendix Map 15: anti-Hayek/anti-Max Weber
-0,99 -0,79 -0,59 -0,39 -0,19 0,01 0,21 0,41 0,61 0,82
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Hard work does not bring success 0,780 Competition good or harmful 0,748
Private vs state ownership of business 0,402
Azerbaijan (2011) 0,615 Poland (2012) 0,553
Kazakhstan (2011) 0,496 Ukraine (2011) 0,465
Russian Federaton (2011) 0,447 Trinidad and Tobago (2011) -0,471 Tunisia (2013) -0,486
Libya (2014) -0,499
Uzbekistan (2011) -0,534 Yemen (2014) -0,995
Appendix Map 16: rejecting work, global citizenship; but social trust
-0,91 -0,63 -0,35 -0,07 0,20 0,48 0,76 1,04 1,32 1,59
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
not important in life: Work 0,627
Most people can be trusted/you just can't be too careful -0,482
I do not see myself as a world citizen 0,419 How important is God in your life -0,377 Justifiable: divorce 0,345
Highest educational level attained 0,328
Netherlands (2012) 1,315 United States (2011) 1,000 Sweden (2011) 0,986 Australia (2012) 0,969 Japan (2010) 0,726
Belarus (2011) 0,703 Uzbekistan (2011) -0,727 Mexico (2012) -0,763 Ghana (2012) -0,889
Ecuador (2013) -0,909
Appendix Map 17: supporting gender justice
-0,90 -0,71 -0,52 -0,33 -0,13 0,06 0,25 0,44 0,63 0,82
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Gender (female) 0,652
reject: University is more important for a boy than for a girl 0,545
reject: Jobs scarce: Men should have more right to a job than women 0,536
Democracy: Women have the same rights as men. 0,330
Sweden (2011) 0,627 Australia (2012) 0,612 Palestine (2013) -0,636 Libya (2014) -0,693
Iraq (2012) -0,706
Tunisia (2013) -0,707 Yemen (2014) -0,774
Azerbaijan (2011) -0,799 Pakistan (2012) -0,895 Jordan (2014) -0,897
Appendix Map 18: educational value: independence not obedience
-0,75 -0,56 -0,37 -0,18 0,00 0,19 0,38 0,57 0,75 0,94
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Important child qualities: independence 0,666 Important child qualities: obedience -0,591
Important child qualities: unselfishness -0,528 Important child qualities: feeling of responsibility 0,342
Sweden (2011) 0,754 Taiwan (2012) 0,727 Azerbaijan (2011) 0,702 South Korea (2010) 0,701 Japan (2010) 0,598
Netherlands (2012) 0,516 Colombia (2012) -0,543 Ecuador (2013) -0,615 Rwanda (2012) -0,678 Ghana (2012) -0,746
Appendix Map 19: staying away from environmental activism
-0,74 -0,57 -0,40 -0,23 -0,06 0,11 0,28 0,45 0,62 0,79
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Past two years: not participated in demonstration for environment 0,726
Past two years: not given money to ecological organization 0,724
Tunisia (2013) 0,616 Azerbaijan (2011) 0,601 Jordan (2014) 0,543
Palestine (2013) 0,458 Colombia (2012) -0,451 Mexico (2012) -0,467 Peru (2012) -0,471
Australia (2012) -0,519 Netherlands (2012) -0,556 Sweden (2011) -0,738
Appendix Map 20: „fatigue of democracy“
-0,88 -0,61 -0,35 -0,08 0,19 0,45 0,72 0,99 1,25 1,52
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Importance of democracy -0,702
Active/Inactive membership of sport or recreation -0,392 never attend religious services 0,350
Past two years: not given money to ecological organization 0,342
Sweden (2011) 1,255 Uruguay (2011) 1,110 Colombia (2012) 0,872 Australia (2012) 0,806 Netherlands (2012) 0,633 Ukraine (2011) -0,642 Kyrgyzstan (2011) -0,686 Kazakhstan (2011) -0,691 Belarus (2011) -0,776 Uzbekistan (2011) -0,881
Appendix Map 21: egoism of the rich
-1,03 -0,74 -0,45 -0,16 0,12 0,41 0,70 0,98 1,27 1,56
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Satisfaction with financial situation of household 0,620 Most people can be trusted/you just can't be too careful
0,562
Justifiable: divorce 0,463
Yemen (2014) 1,271
Pakistan (2012) 0,947 Libya (2014) 0,763
Jordan (2014) 0,627
Malaysia (2012) 0,576 Estonia (2011) -0,658 Australia (2012) -0,712 Cyprus (2011) -0,726
Sweden (2011) -0,733 Slovenia (2011) -1,025
Appendix Map 22: imagination versus ecological responsibility
-0,74 -0,58 -0,43 -0,28 -0,12 0,03 0,18 0,34 0,49 0,64
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
Active/Inactive membership of environmental organization -0,680
Important child qualities: imagination 0,506
Important child qualities: feeling of responsibility -0,460 never attend religious services 0,353
Pakistan (2012) 0,490 Turkey (2011) 0,395
Algeria (2013) 0,362 Lebanon (2013) 0,319 Nigeria (2011) 0,306 Rwanda (2012) 0,284 Chile (2011) -0,289 Poland (2012) -0,339 Yemen (2014) -0,413
Netherlands (2012) -0,737
Appendix Map 23: hating the Army and sports
-0,51 -0,35 -0,19 -0,03 0,13 0,29 0,45 0,61 0,77 0,93
source: our ow n calculations and http://w w w .clearlyandsimply.com/clearly_and_simply/2009/06/choropleth-maps-w ith-excel.html
no Confidence: Armed Forces 0,775
Active/Inactive membership of sport or recreation -0,518
Uzbekistan (2011) 0,773 Azerbaijan (2011) 0,437 Armenia (2011) 0,435 Kyrgyzstan (2011) 0,356 Zimbabwe (2012) 0,336 Ecuador (2013) -0,375 Netherlands (2012) -0,393 China (2012) -0,416
Poland (2012) -0,498
Sweden (2011) -0,510
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