This paper investigates the validity of the EKC hypothesis by incorporating coal consumption and globalization in CO2 emissions function over the period of 1970-2012 for Chinese economy.
The combined cointegration approach by Bayer and Hanck, (2013) is applied to examine the long run relationship between the variables and robustness of long run relationship is tested by applying the ARDL bounds testing approach in the presence of structural breaks in the series.
The VECM causality framework is used for detection of direction of causal relationship amid the variables. Our results confirm the presence of long run relationship among the variables. The EKC hypothesis is validated. Coal consumption increases CO2 emissions dominantly and globalization improves the environmental quality. CO2 emissions are Granger caused by economic growth and globalization (economic, political and social). Coal consumption causes CO2 emissions and in resulting, CO2 emissions cause coal consumption in Granger sense.
Globalization increases per capita income and also causes technological enhancement in China, which contributes to decrease in environmental degradation intensity. Thus, our empirical study validates the nexus between globalization and environmental quality. At the low level of income environmental degradation tend to rise as people are willing to accept increasing environmental degradation in exchange for higher consumption. However, as a country reach higher living standards through globalization process, citizen demands better environmental quality. Within the process of globalization in China, we have evidence of improving social and ecological conditions. However, for current process of globalization to be sustainable in the long run, China needs to participate more in the process of market integration with its regional trading partners by lowering or removing the trade barriers. Environmental and social sustainability are necessary condition of the sustainability of globalization in the long run and thus economic development of
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a country. Therefore, Chinese government should focus on improving environmental quality. To achieve sustainable growth with an ever increasing energy demand, the Chinese government should make every effort to improve energy efficiency and reduce pollutant emissions. China’s energy policies should focus on supplying more clean and low-carbon energy. China already is experiencing serious environmental problems through energy activities as coal accounts for about 70% of total primary energy in China which is the dominant source of carbon emissions in 2011-12 (China Energy Statistical Yearbook 2012). Chinese Government’s energy policy should diversify energy source to reduce its’ reliance on coal. China should take active measures to increase the utilization of cleaner energy sources such as wind, solar, natural gas, nuclear power and hydroelectric power.
As economic development and globalization in China continues, environmental problems in general will worsen with the projected rapid increases in energy consumption. China’s energy development strategy should include an energy conservation priority policy, and at the same time developing renewable energy. Government should adopt laws, regulations, and fiscal policies to enhance efficient use of energy. Vehicle emissions problem in particular require special attention, especially those associated with increases in freight and passenger transport energy consumption. Policy makers should also emphasis on development of strategic oil reserve to sustain long term economic development. China’s long term sustainable economic growth will depend on its less resource-depleted development pattern and cut its reliance on resource and energy intensive industries. Rapid industrialization in the urban areas hugely contributed to the environmental degradation in China. China should take measures to promote the development and modernization of agriculture sector, which will slow down the rapid urbanization to alleviate environment pressure.
For future research on EKC hypothesis in China, regional and provincial data can be used as the aggregate data used to weaken the correct causality and cause the spurious feedback relationship.
The investigation of the EKC hypothesis in presence of globalization on different sector of the economy such as agriculture, transport, commerce, industry, and households could shed more light on the effect of globalization on the different sector of the Chinese economy. Such studies can be very interesting for energy policy design as these would be micro foundation for aggregate macro-economy.
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