Citrus demand in Syria

4.4.3.1 Evolution of citrus consumption

Usually, 95% of domestically marketed citrus fruit quantities are consumed freshly, while only a small proportion is exported and manufactured (Figure 25). Meanwhile, the domestic demand on the different types of fruits is rather static (Table 42)²³². This might be related with various factors, which are certainly a type of diet transition. However, at an initial stage, which was associated with income increase and the higher availability of citrus and other fruits through the improvement of transports and marketing in addition to dissemination of cold-storage technique, the consumption of fruits tends to penetrate into most  market segments of the population. This has occurred as a result of the diet diversification increase  which imposed the consumers to diversify their consumption (new fruits varieties are

232 Consumption is influenced by domestic demand and production; as any change occurring in domestic demand leads to the same change in consumption and vice versa. see section (4.4.3.2)

139 available on the market). Thus the per-capita consumption of grapes and apples, for instance, declines due to the substitution of other type of fruits and the significant increase of citrus production.

Table 42: Evolution of the apparent consumption per capita²³³ for the main fruits during 2000-2009 in Syria; Unit: kg/per capita

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 AAGR %

Citrus 47 48 42 36 46 41 46 48 51 43 -1

Grapes 24 22 19 17 13 16 15 13 14 16 -4

Apples 17 15 12 17 18 13 13 8 14 10 -6

Others¹ 20 18 17 18 15 16 18 20 19 16 -2

1 These other fruits includes: Fig, Apricot, Pear, Plum, Cherries, Peach, Quince, and Pomegranate.

Source: Own table computed from (AASA, 2010)

As shown in Table 42, the apparent consumption per capita of citrus fruit maintained higher  levels than other fruits during 2000-2009. The trend lines in Figure 28, illustrate a slight decline in per capita consumption of grapes, apples and other fruits with less fluctuations while citrus fruit per capita consumption shows a decrease by -1% only but a more unstable trend. The apparent per capita consumption of grapes and apples has declined by 4% and -6% respectively during the study period.

Figure 28: Trends of the domestic per capita consumption for the main fruits between 2000 and 2009; Unit: kg/per capita

Source: Own figure based on (Table 42)       

233 The apparent consumption per capita is the proportion of domestic demand (available) to the population.

0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

kg/per capita

140 Figure 29 illustrates that the apparent consumption of citrus fruit per capita tended to decline down from 47 kg to 36 kg between 2000 and 2003. This declining trend of consumption could be mostly related to the instability of citrus production as a result of climatic conditions parallel with an increasing number of populations. And may be also related to the development of exports at the consumers’ expenses. Also part of this instability could be related to income level as it is perceived that the citrus prices increased during the period pointed out to. However, this consumption per capita return to rise again up from 36 kg to 51 kg between 2003 and 2008, as a result to remarkable increase of citrus production for the same period.

Figure 29: Apparent consumption of citrus fruit in Syria during 2000-2009

Source: Own figure based on (Table 42)

4.4.3.2 The commodity balance of Syrian citrus fruit: increasing surplus

Based on the above, the citrus supply chain includes the following actors: private farms, wholesalers (mediators, importers and exporters), processors, retailers, and final consumers.

The commodity balance consists of production, export, import, domestic demand (available), and the aggregate supply which comprises the local production and import. Domestic demand is estimated by deducting exports from aggregate supply. The aggregate demand comprises domestic demand and export.

As shown in Table 43, the ratio of self-sufficiency exceeded 100% in all years for citrus during 2000-2009 and reached its peak 127% in 2009. So, the domestic production was higher than the internal demand, in spite of the high populating rate in Syria. This situation refers to the existence of a trade surplus of citrus which can compete in internal and external markets.

47

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Consumption (kg/per caita)

141 Table 43: Citrus fruit commodity balance during 2000-2009; Unit: Per 1000 M.T.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 ^AAGR

% Production 800  833  746  652,5 844  777,8 907  967  1046  1093  3.5

Import 0  7  9  12  18,6  19,6  21  25  46  39  -

Export 39  45  29  28,9  27,8  53,5  75  81  85  270  24

Aggregate

supply 800  840  755  664,5 862,6 797,4 928  992  1092  1131  4 Aggregate

demand 800  840  755  664,5 862,6 797,4 928  992  1092  1131  4

Domestic

demand 761  795  726  635,6 834,8 743,9 853  911  1007  861,4  1.4 (%)

Self-Sufficiency¹ 105 105 103 103 101 105 106 106 104 127 2.1

1 Self-Sufficiency (%) is the percentage of total production to the domestic demand (available).

Source: Own calculation based on (AASA, 2010)

The annual growth rate illustrates that the exported quantities of citrus has been increased significantly by 24% during the studied period. This is due to the regional trade agreements between Syria and Arab countries²³⁴ in addition to Turkey, and the exports promotion policy which is applied by the Syrian government to encourage exporting of products which have comparative and competitive advantages, such as citrus fruit which is the subject of this study.

The increase of citrus production also helps to increase exports. Citrus production has been increased by 3.5%. The domestic demand (available) and self-sufficiency has been slightly increased by 1.4% and 2.1% respectively. Thus, the production of citrus is sufficient to meet the domestic demand with surplus to be exported (Table 43).

Table 44: Summary statistics of the citrus commodity balance during 2000–2009;

Unit: Per 1000 M.T.

Source: Own calculation based on (Table 42)

234 GAFTA

142 Table 44 illustrates the statistical description of the citrus commodity balance from 2000 until 2009, and Figure 30 shows the evolution of the citrus commodity balance during the same period.

Figure 30: Evolution of the citrus commodity balance during 2000-2009; Unit: Per 1000 M.T.

Source: Own figure based on (Table 42)

The above figure clarifies that the trend of export and import stay almost stable in spite of the variation of production during the studied period. The aggregate supply of citrus harmonizes with production variation. It also shows that Syrian citrus consumption is mainly dependent on domestic production to meet the needs of consumers. Import volumes remain low and are not exceeding 4% of production.