Changes in the Marital Composition of the Elderly

In the context of social security, and especially with respect to the pension problem, the marital composition of the elderly is of considerable interest, not only because of different pension types, such as survivor pension, but also because of different living arrangements connected with marital status. In 1990, the marital composition of the elderly differs only slightly between East and West Germany. The percentage of married old age females is higher for West Germany, whereas the percentage of married males is almost the same (see Table 10). Both East and West Germany show that a majority of old age males is still married (more than three-quarters), while there is a minority of women married in old age groups (35

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Table 10: Marital composition of the population aged 60 and over, East and West Germany, 1990 (estimated) (%).

I

Country S i n g l e H a r r i e d Divorced Uidowed T o t a l Females

1

1

1

Uest Germany

The future trends for the number as well as the marital composition of the elderly are rather certain due to the fact that nuptiality dynamics are concentrated in young adulthood and mortality changes affect population numbers smoothly. In the long run, the marital composition of both males and females is subject to change towards less people being married (see Table 11). Consequently, the proportion of old age people living outside their own nucleus family is likely to grow remarkably, but to a different amount with respect to gender.

8 . 6 38.5 4 . 7 48.3 100.0 Ha 1 es

As for males aged 60 and over, it is expected that a majority of them will be married, with the exception of the Western Scenario after the year 2030. Although almost 80% of the males are currently married, this percentage will drop between 60% and 50% until 2030 for the different scenarios (see Figure 1 1).

Table 11: Marital composition of the elderly in Germany (people aged 60 and over, in percentages).

For the growing group of unmarried elderly males, the never married are expected to become the majority. The percentage of never married males will increase from 3.7% in 1990 to about 20% in 2030 (varying between 18.4% and 22.5%). In the year 2050, this percentage will be about 25 %, with the exception of the Western Scenario, resulting in 35 % never married males (see Figure 12).

Although the general trend against formal marital unions is also found for old age females, some specific features are likely to happen. For the next 10 to 20 years, there is a temporal trend towards increasing married women among the age group under consideration. This is because the age, sex, and marital status composition of the elderly will successively rectify its disturbances and imbalances brought about by World War I1 (see Table 12). The general trend, however, will clearly appear for the years after 200012015. Until the end of the projection period, the percentage of married women is estimated to vary between 25%

(Western Scenario) and 37.4 % (Mortality Scenario).

Year Males

20

1985 2000 201 5 2030 2050

Calendar Years

. . . . . . .

-

Females 60 and over

Figure 1 1 : Percentage married among the elderly, Germany, 1985 - 2050.

35

-

Females 60 and over

. . . . . . .

-

- -

i

1985 2000 2015 2030 2050

Calendar Years Calendar Years

Figure 12: Percentage single among the elderly, Germany, 1985 - 2050.

Table 12: Sex ratio of the elderly (males aged 60+ per 100 females aged 60+).

Benchmark 70.7 76.2 78.4 74.3

Western 70.3 76.0 78.6 74.3

F e r t i l i t y 70.7 76.2 78.4 74.3

M o r t a l i t y 72.5 85.7 92.1 92.4

N a t i o n a l 1 58.9 70.3 76.3 79.8 75.8 N a t i o n a l 2 58.9 70.4 76.0 79.7 77.0

3. WORK PATTERNS AND RETIREMENT--PAST AND FUTURE 3.1. Similarities and Dissimilarities--Comparison of East and West Germany

In both East and West Germany the work patterns of males and non-married females were almost similar to other developed countries. The labor force participation rates were, and still are, considerably high, more or less for all but the very young and the older age groups. In the last decade only minor changes have been observed with respect to the younger age groups as a result of longer duration of education. For divorced and widowed women, a slight trend of increasing participation in the older age groups occurred.

Strong differences with respect to employment have been observed between the GDR and the FRG for married women. In the FRG a 3-phase sequence can be observed: a high labor force participation for very young females; a drop between the ages of 25 and 35 because of inter- rupting economic activities due to the birth of children; and subsequently a rise of labor force participation, followed by a steady decrease until pension age. Although in the past the labor force participation of married women increased, especially in the older age groups, the typical pattern remains more or less unchanged.

In the GDR, rather different patterns have evolved. Since the 1950s, where the employment behavior of married women was similar to the FRG, the participation rates increased to a pattern similar to that of non-married women. For the mid-1980s, the age specific participation rates were close to 90% for age groups between 25 and 50, and no substantial influence of childbearing activities on the nominal labor force participation exists. There are two main reasons for this. First, as already stated, reproductive activities were positioned in very young age groups, just before or at the beginning of intense economic activities, when the combination of parenthood and continued labor force participation seemed to be e a ~ i e r . ~ Second, the comprehensive child-care network helped most of the mothers combine, to a certain extent, motherhood/parenthood and economic activities.

Further differences between the two German states can be observed for people older than 60.

In the FRG the labor force participation rates have dropped substantially since the 1970s for men as well as for women, which implies a corresponding earlier retirement. In the GDR the decrease was much slower for women while for men a little increase of the participation rates was seen. Therefore the retirement age was higher in the GDR than in the FRG.

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