Mortality transition and Convergence
5.4.3. Catching-up process in mortality indicators
The catching process was examined by plotting the change in LEB, IMR and MMR during 1981-2011 among major states of India by LEB, IMR and MMR levels in initial period, 1981. The results revealed that except for LEB which showed no clear trend of catching-up process, the IMR and MMR showed clear trends of catching-up process. In case of LEB, some states with higher LEB levels also experienced greater changes along with states with lower LEB, thus, it do not showed a clear catching-up process.
However, in case of both IMR and MMR the states with higher IMR and MMR showed
109 greater progress than lower IMR and MMR, thus, there is a clear evidence of higher IMR and MMR states catching-up with lower IMR and MMR states (Figure 5.6).
Figure 5.6. Change in LEB, MMR, IMR during 1981-2010 for major states of India by LEB, MMR, IMR levels in initial period, 1981
246810
50 55 60 65 70
LEB levels in 1981
Change in LEB during 1981-2011 Fitted values
Change in LEB during 1981- 2006
Change in LEB during 1981- 2006
20406080100
50 100 150
IMR in 1981
Change in IMR during 1981-2011 Fitted values Change in LEB during 1981- 2006
110 5.4.4. Convergence in averages of mortality rates: Absolute β-convergence
In this section, this chapter assessed the convergence in averages of mortality rates.
Convergence in mortality rates was measured based on LEB, IMR and MMR. To measure the convergence in LEB and to explore the possibility of contra underlying trends during the twenty-one year period, piecewise convergence models were estimated. Piecewise convergence estimates indicated convergence process in the smaller intervals.
Table 5.3. Absolute 𝛽 convergence for life expectancy at birth across the major states in India, 1981-2006
Period 𝛽 coefficient P value Adjusted R2 Speed of convergence (% per annum)
1981-85 to 2002-06 -.015722 0.007 0.40 2.13
1981-85 to 1991-95 -.027543 0.047 0.21 3.22
1991-95 to 2001-05 -.019977 0.000 0.85 2.23
2001-05 to 2002-06 -.006587 0.763 0.069 0.67
States: n=15, df 14
The results of absolute β-convergence estimates showed statistically significant evidence of convergence in LEB during the period, 1981-2006 at the rate of 2.1% per annum. However, when convergence coefficient was disaggregated for three smaller
-100 0
100200300
0 200 400 600
mmr_1997
Change in MMR during 1997-98 to 2007-09 Fitted values MMR in 1997-98
111 intervals, the volume and speed of convergence (β = -.027543, S = 3.2% per annum, p<0.047) was higher during 1985-95 compared to later periods, 1995-2006 (Table 5.3).
Convergence in child mortality rate was measured based on infant mortality rate.
Analogous to the process adopted for estimating convergence in LEB, the β -convergence models for IMR was estimated in two stage analyses: the first stage analyses dealt with β-convergence between the beginning and end period under observation and, the second stage analyses dealt with piece-wise analyses: β-convergence for the sub-periods. Akin to LEB, absolute β-convergence estimates for IMR presented in table 5.4 also revealed that the β value for IMR during 1992-2005 was statistically significant (β = -.06527, p<0.007) indicating convergence in IMR.
However, Piece-wise regression models for disaggregated periods showed that the convergence was much greater during 1992-1998 (β = -.14834, p<0.002) than 1999-2005 (β = -.02565, p<0.427).
Table 5.4. Absolute 𝛽 Convergence for infant mortality rate across the major states, India, 1992-2006
Period 𝛽 coefficient P value Adjusted R2 Speed of
convergence (% per annum)
1992-93 to 2005-06 -.06527 0.007 0.24 6.7
1992-93 to 1998-99 -.14834 0.002 0.31 16.1
1998-99 to 2005-06 -.02565 0.427 0.14 2.6
States: n=24, df 23
The results presented in table 5.5 show an absolute convergence in MMR (𝛽= -.0003776, p<.0060) for the period, 2001-03 to 2007-09. A comparative assessment of the convergence estimates for two mortality indicators during 1992-2005 revealed that the speed of IMR (S= 7% per annum) is greater than the LEB (S= 2.13% per annum).
The convergence was more for the recent period for children full immunisation, whereas convergence was greater in the earlier period for children underweight and IMR.
Table 5.5. Absolute 𝛽 convergence for maternal mortality ratio across the major states, India, 1997-2009
Period 𝛽 coefficient Adjusted
R2 Speed of convergence for infant mortality rate
(% per annum) Maternal mortality ratio
1997-98 to 2007-09 -.0003776 (.0060) 0.71 0.04%
Note: 1. States: n=15, df 14; 2. () P value
112 5.4.5. Conditional β-convergence in overall and child health status
Although, the absolute convergence model presented evidential support for unconditional convergence, it is not reasonable to assume that all the states do share same socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, to account for socioeconomic variability of the states, conditional β-convergence was estimated by including two more explanatory variables: proportion of illiterate population and proportion of population in poor wealth quintile in the regression model. The conditional β-convergence estimates for life expectancy at birth also showed evidence of convergence as indicated by negative β coefficient (β = -.03197, p<0.016) during 1981-2006 (Table 5.6). The estimates for shorter intervals within the larger intervals also support convergence hypothesis for all the three periods under consideration. Consistent with the pattern observed for absolute β-convergence model estimates, piecewise conditional β-convergence model estimates also showed greater volume and speed of convergence and statistical significance (β= -.06573, S = 10% per annum, p<0.050) during 1985-1995 than recent period, 2005-2006, (β= -.01062, S = 2.5%). Overall, results imply that both absolute and conditional β-convergence estimates in terms of negative coefficient point to sizeable evidence of Indian states becoming similar in terms of the levels of LEB during 1981-2006.
However, conditional β-convergence estimates revealed greater volume and speed of convergence compared to unconditional β-convergence estimates.
Table 5.6. Conditional 𝛽 convergence for life expectancy at birth across the major states in India, 1981-2006
Note: 1. States: n=15, df 14 2. () P value
Commensurate with absolute β-convergence estimates, the conditional β-convergence estimates for IMR indicated negative β values for all three periods, thereby indicating
113 convergence in IMR over time. Similar to absolute β-convergence estimates of IMR, conditional β-convergence estimates also suggests that the volume of convergence (β=.-28982, p<0.000) was higher during 1992-1998 than (β= -.12649, p<0.023) convergence, the results of conditional 𝛽-convergence estimates show evidence for divergence (𝛽 = .0029621, P<.01660). However, a comparison of absolute and conditional β-convergence estimates showed that after controlling for state level proportion of illiterate population and poverty ratios, the volume and speed of convergence indicated greater conditional β-convergence than unconditional β -convergence for IMR and LEB indicators.
114 5.4.6. Sigma convergence in mortality rates
As it has been noted in the methodology chapter (Chapter 2) that β-convergence is necessary, but not a sufficient condition for Sigma convergence. In other words, a country experiencing β-convergence may not be experiencing a sigma convergence.
Therefore, it is necessary to test for sigma convergence alongside the β-convergence.
This chapter examined sigma convergence based on change in standard deviations of health status indicators over the time for the major states of India (Figure 5.7). The results for sigma convergence in LEB indicated a clear convergence in average LEB for Indian states that the standard deviation in LEB declined from 5.05 during 1981-86 to 4.33 in 2001-05. However, increase in standard deviation of (SD= 4.33 in 2001-05 to SD= 4.41 in 2006) LEB for the recent period indicated the emerging divergence trend.
Figure 5.7. Sigma convergence in average LEB across the major states, India; 1981-2006
Figure 5.8 show the results of Sigma convergence in averages of IMR. In contrast to Sigma convergence results of LEB, the Sigma convergence results for IMR indicated a convergent trend over the period that the dispersion in IMR declined from 25/1000 in 1992-93 to 16/1000 live births in 2005-06. Sigma convergence results in case of MMR show a continued decline in dispersion of MMR across the states of India. Standard deviation of MMR across the states in 1997-98 was 180 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births, which increased to 97 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (Figure 5.9).
5.05
4.87
4.78
4.51
4.33 4.41
3.80 4.00 4.20 4.40 4.60 4.80 5.00 5.20
1981-85 1986-90 1990-95 1996-00 2001-05 2011
Standard Deviation
Period
2002-06
115 Figure 5.8. Sigma convergence in averages of IMR across the major states, India; 1992-2006
Figure 5.9. Sigma convergence in averages of MMR across the major states, India;
1997-2009