The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) was established to provide a credible, integrative and unique platform for guiding and supporting activ-ities implemented within climate sensitive investment areas, notably agricul-ture, energy, disaster risk reduction, human health and water sectors in support of both climate adaptation and mitigation. The purpose of the GFCS is to pro-vide a framework for action that enables and accelerates the coordinated, technically and scientifically sound implementation of measures to improve climate-related outcomes at national, regional and global levels.
The Goals of the Framework are:
1. Reducing the vulnerability of society to climate-related hazards through better provision of climate information
2. Advancing the key global development goals through better provision of climate information
3. Mainstreaming the use of climate information in decision-making 4. Strengthening the engagement of providers and users of climate services 5. Maximizing the utility of existing climate service infrastructure
The Framework’s five foundational components, or pillars include:
• User Interface Platform: a structured means for users, climate researchers and climate information providers to interact at all levels.
• Climate Services Information System: the mechanism through which in-formation about climate (past, present and future) will be routinely col-lected, stored and processed to generate products and services that inform often complex decision-making across a wide range of climate-sensitive activities and enterprises.
• Observations and Monitoring: to ensure that climate observations and other data necessary to meet the needs of end-users are collected, man-aged and disseminated and are supported by relevant metadata.
• Research, Modelling and Prediction: to foster research towards continu-ally improving the scientific quality of climate information, providing an evidence base for the impacts of climate change and variability and for the cost-effectiveness of using climate information.
• Capacity Development: to address the particular capacity development requirements identified in the other pillars and, more broadly, the basic requirements for enabling any Framework-related activities to occur.
GFCS is a partnership with broad participation and reach; it serves as a voice for uniting many different parties, complementing the many existing
programmes and initiatives contributing to climate services, building upon existing capacities and potentials, and providing momentum and tangible progress towards this fast-growing field. As such, it directly contributes to-wards the achievement of global and national goals identified in policy frame-works such as the Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030, and the SDGs.
been a steady increase in awareness of the potential value of climate information and associated services to the health sector.42
At the heart of climate information is access to relevant high-quality data.39 However, data is not enough; transforming data into information, understanding how to use the information and applying it appropriately for improved health outcomes are critical. The evolving policy context supports or detracts from this process. Greater congruence between development processes at the global, regional and national levels provides the opportunity to strengthen the use of data in evidence-based policy and practice. Improved access to climate knowledge and information will lead to a better understanding of the dynamic interaction between climate, environmental changes and health, the changing risks and new opportu-nities for the development of prevention and early response strategies. Climate change adaptation strategies for health are now being fostered by the Green Cli-mate Fund (GCF), a new global fund created to support the efforts of developing countries to respond to the challenge of climate change. WHO is in the pro-cess of being accredited by the Fund so they can seek funding for health-related projects.
1.5 Conclusions
Here we propose the incorporation of climate information into routine epidemio-logical surveillance systems, early warning and risk assessment for climate-sensitive health outcomes as well as for all types of hydro-meteorological disasters, infectious disease emergencies and nutrition crises. To achieve this requires new and inno-vative mechanisms for strengthening observations, data management and sharing, development of relevant climate services, inter-sectoral collaboration, training and capacity building; all within an enabling policy environment. Our premise in writ-ing this book is that improved management of health risks associated with climate variability (such as the heat early warning systems recently established in Europe and North America) increases adaptive capacity of the public health sector to longer-term climate change. Understanding the policy drivers that influence pro-grammatic development, funding streams and new opportunities for inter-sectoral engagement can help ensure delivery of climate services that meet decision-maker needs.
Notes
i The Bangkok Principles for the Implementation of the Health Aspects of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, www.preventionweb.net/files/47606_bang-kokprinciplesfortheimplementati.pdf.
ii The Chair’s Summary and the full report of the Bangkok conference 10–11 March 2016, www.unisdr.org/conferences/2016/health.
iii See www.bu.edu/pardee/files/2017/03/Multiple-Breadbasket-Failures-Pardee-Report.pdf.
References
1 Cilingiroglu, N. Health, globalization and developing countries. Saudi Medical Journal 26, 191–200 (2005).
2 Marmot, M. Social determinants of health inequalities. Lancet 365, 1099–1104, doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(05)71146-6 (2005).
3 Bloom, D. E., Black, S. & Rappuoli, R. PERSPECTIVE: emerging infectious diseases: A proactive approach. PNAS 114, 4055–4059 (2017).
4 Clinton, C. & Sridhar, D. Governing Global Health: Who Runs The World And Why?
(Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2017).
5 RBM. Action and Investment to Defeat Malaria 2016–2030. For a Malaria-Free World. 99pp (RBM, Geneva, 2015).
6 Grabowsky, M. The billion-dollar malaria moment. Nature 451, 1051–1054, doi:10.
1038/4511051a (2008).
7 WHO. International Health Regulations (third edition) (World Health Organization, Geneva, 2005).
8 St. Louis, M. E. & Hess, J. J. Climate change: impacts on and implications for global health. American Journal of Preventative Medicine 35, 527–538 (2008).
9 McMichael, A., Haines, A., Slooff, R. & Kovats, S. Climate Change and Human Health (World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 1996).
10 McMichael, A. J. et al. Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Chapter 9: Human Health 1–36 (IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2001).
11 Patz, J. A., Gibbs, H. K., Foley, J. A., Rogers, J. V. & Smith, K. R. Climate change and global health: quantifying a growing ethical crisis. EcoHealth 4, 397–405 (2007).
12 Kovats, R. S., Campbell-Lendrum, D. & Matthies, F. Climate change and human health:
Estimating avoidable deaths and disease. Risk Analysis 25, 1409–1418 (2005).
13 Costello, A. et al. Managing the health effects of climate change. Lancet 373, 1693–1733 (2009).
14 Tollefson, J. NEWS: Trump pulls United States out of Paris climate agreement. Nature 546, 198, (2017).
15 Herring, S. C. et al. Explaining Extreme Events of 2016 from a Climate Perspective. Special Issue: Bulletin of the American Metereological Society 99, 1 (2018).
16 Ivers, L. C. & Ryan, E. T. Infectious diseases of severe weather-related and flood-related natural disasters. Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases 19, 408–414 (2006).
17 Kelly-Hope, L. A. & Thomson, M. C. in Seasonal Forecasts, Climatic Change, and Human Health (eds. M.C. Thomson, R. Garcia-Herrera, & M. Beniston), 31–70 (Springer Sci-ence+Business Media, Berlin, Germany, 2008).
18 Thomson, M. C. et al. Using rainfall and temperature data in the evaluation of national malaria control programs in Africa. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 97, 32–45, doi:10.4269/ajtmh.16-0696 (2017).
19 CRED/UNISDR. The human cost of weather related disasters: 1995–2015. 30pp (CRED/UNISDR, Brussels, 2015).
20 Dercon, S. & Hoddinott, J. in Insurance Against Poverty (ed. S. Dercon) (Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2005).
21 Field, C. B. et al. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Summary for Policy-Makers. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 3–21 (IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 2012).
22 UN. Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015: 2030. 36pp (2015).
23 Hellmuth, M. E., Osgood, D. E., Hess, U., Moorhead, A. & Bhojwani, H. in Climate and Society Report (ed. M. E. Hellmuth). 104pp (IRI, Palisades, New York, 2009).
24 Martins, V. J. B. et al. Long-lasting effects of undernutrition. International Journal of Envi-ronmental and Public Health 8, 1817–1846 (2011).
25 Ng, M. et al. Global, regional, and national prevalence of overweight and obesity in chil-dren and adults during 1980–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 384, 766–781 (2014).
26 IFPRI. Global Nutrition Report 2016: From Promise to Impact: Ending Malnutrition by 2030 (IFPRI, Washington, DC, 2016).
27 WHO. Global Health Expenditure Database. Extracted by World Bank and accessed at http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.XPD.TOTL.ZS on May 19, 2017 (2017).
28 FAO/WHO. Rome Declaration on Nutrition. Outcome document prepared for the Second International Conference on Nutrition (ICN, Rome, 2014).
29 Sacks, G., Shill, J., Snowdon, W., Swinburn, B., Armstrong, T., Irwin, R., Randby, S. &
Xuereb, G. Prioritizing Areas for Action in the Field of Population-based Prevention of Child-hood Obesity (World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland, 2012).
30 Vermeulen, S. J., Campbell, B. M. & Ingram, J. S. I. Climate change and food sys-tems. Annual Review of Environment and Resources 37, 195–222, doi:10.1146/annurev- environ-020411-130608 (2012).
31 FAO. Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (FAO, Rome, 2017).
32 Thomson, M. C. Chapter 6. Climate and Nutrition (IFPRI, Washington, DC, 2015).
33 Whitmee, S. et al. Safeguarding human health in the Anthropocene epoch: report of The Rockefeller Foundation–Lancet Commission on planetary health. Lancet 386, 1973–
2028 (2015).
34 Gillespie, S. & van den Bold, M. Agriculture, food systems, and nutrition: meeting the challenge. Global Challenges 1, 1600002 (2017).
35 Tangcharoensathien, V., Mills, A. & Palu, T. Accelerating health equity: the key role of universal health coverage in the Sustainable Development Goals. BMC Medicine 13, doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0342-3 (2015).
36 Worrall, E., Connor, S. J. & Thomson, M. C. Improving the cost-effectiveness of IRS with climate informed health surveillance systems. Malaria Journal 7, 263, doi:10.1186/1475-2875-7-263 (2008).
37 Kelley, C.P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R. & Kushnir, Y. Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112 (11), 3241–3246 (2015).
38 von Uexkulla, N., Croicua, M., Fjeldea, H. & Buhaug, H. Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought. PNAS 113, 12391–12396, doi:10.1073/pnas.1607542113 (2016).
39 Thomson, M. C., Connor, S. J., Zebiak, S. E., Jancloes, M. & Mihretie, A. Africa needs climate data to fight disease. Nature 471, 440–442 (2011).
40 IRI. A Gap Analysis for the Implementation of the Global Climate Observing System Pro-gramme in Africa. Report No. 06-01, 39pp (International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, New York, 2006).
41 Thomson, M. C. et al. Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles. Nature 439, 576–579 (2006).
42 Guillemot, J. Health Exemplar: Annex to the Implementation Plan for the Global Framework for Climate Services (WMO, Geneva, 2014).
Whoever wishes to investigate medicine properly, should proceed thus: in the first place to consider the seasons of the year, and what effects each of them produces for they are not at all alike, but differ much from themselves in regard to their changes. Then the winds, the hot and the cold, especially such as are common to all countries, and then such as are peculiar to each locality.
On Airs, Waters, and Places by Hippocrates c. 400BC
2.1 Introduction
The Zika virus epidemic that emerged in northeast Brazil in 2015 occurred during an unusually warm and dry year. Both natural climate variability as well as long-term trends were responsible for the extreme temperatures observed1 and these climate conditions are likely to have contributed to the timing and scale of this devastating epidemic. Knowledge of this climate context is derived from analyses of large-scale global climate datasets and models, which provide policy-makers with broad insights into changes in hydro-meteorological extremes. However, societal response to epidemics works at multiple levels. For instance, policies and resource commitments may be developed at international and national levels, while targeted prevention and control efforts are managed at local levels by district health teams and community leaders. Adaptation to climate change also needs to be developed at multiple levels. National level information may be needed for planning, but an understanding of the local weather and climate that individuals and communities experience is also required. Once specific climate-sensitive health risks are identi-fied, information on the past, present or future climate can be used to help mitigate risks and identify new opportunities for improved health outcomes. This infor-mation needs to be provided as a routine service if it is to support operational decision-making.