Adaptation as a Task of Communication

In Germany, outside the scientific community climate change is so far discussed almost exclusively in the context of the need for emission reductions. Adaptation to the impacts of climate change has only recently received more attention, but is still highly under-represented in public awareness and in the consciousness of decision-makers in economy, policy and administration (see also chapters 4 and 5).

With regard to this, the first step towards a Germany that is adapted to the impacts of climate change is to raise awareness of its risks and opportunities – a task of communication.

Using the Existing Awareness of Climate Change

Although in Germany at the moment it foremost the need for emission reductions that is seen as a necessary response to climate change, the underlying awareness of the existence of climate change can be used as a basis for communication measures towards a facilitation of climate adaptation. Particularly in the international comparison, Germany is characterised by a high public awareness of climate change.

This awareness is not limited to global climate change, but includes the conviction that there are local impacts of climate change in Germany, as was especially shown during the Elbe flood 2002 and the heat wave in 2003. This awareness needs to be complemented by the insight that not only emission reductions, but also adaptation to climate change is necessary. The fact that emission reductions will only become effective in the long-term, and therefore adaptation measures need to be implemented for the short- and medium-term is a very helpful argument.

It should, however, always be stressed that not an either-or strategy, but a parallel implementation of emission reduction and climate adaptation is needed. Whenever there are synergies between these two parallel strategies this needs to be emphasized, such as e.g. in the insulation of buildings, which reduces energy use and protects against heat waves.

Using Extreme Weather Events as Windows of Attention

Adaptation to a risk can be seen as a process that starts with an awareness of the risk.

Often, this risk awareness cannot be brought about by communication measures that exclusively talk of potential risks in the future. Extreme events, which exemplify the risks are a crucial trigger for the development of risk awareness.

In Germany, such extreme events, which can be associated with climate change, were primarily the already mentioned Elbe flood in the summer of 2002, the heat wave in the summer of 2003, and even the fictive collapse of the North Atlantic Current in the film “The Day After Tomorrow”. The media related these events strongly to climate

change and the necessity of greenhouse gas emission reductions.

Furthermore, extreme events are “windows of attention” to promote adaptation measures with regard to climate change. Besides extreme weather events, there are hardly any windows of attention for climate change, owing to the current economic and social problems in Germany.

An essential prerequisite to using extreme weather events as a means of communication to promote climate adaptation is that the necessary concepts of communication are readily available and can be “pulled out of the drawer”. It would take to much time to develop such concepts after an event, so that the communication measure could only be realised when the window of attention has already been closed again.

Not only be concepts for communication measures need to be readily available.

Furthermore, concepts for concrete adaptation measures that can be rapidly implemented need to be prepared, since extreme weather events are often followed by an increased readiness to act in decision-makers that will look for suitable measures.

In this way, windows of attention can become windows of opportunity for decisions that would not be taken in the every-day course of events, in which other problems have higher priority.

Promoting Trust Between Science and Society

However, adaptation to climate change should be more than adaptation to past events. Since climate change is proceeding further, exclusively adapting to events that have already occurred would always stay a step behind climate change and its impacts. For example, the preparation for heat waves should not only take place in such regions that were impacted by the heat wave in 2003. Scientific climate scenarios show that such heat waves can alos occur in other regions of Germany. Large damages of climate change can only be avoided if reactive planning of measures and their implementation (!) becomes proactive, and takes into account results from future scenarios.

The trust in analyses of past developments is often larger than in scenarios of the future. However, this trust can be increased when trust in the scientists that develop these scenarios is built. Personal contacts to scientists are often helpful in this. Some scientists appear frequently in the media to council on climate change. These scientists should be encouraged to demand not only the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, but also the implementation of adaptation measures as adequate responses to climate change.

Stressing the Link Between Climate Change and Current Societal Problems

Problems besides climate change dominate the public and political debate in Germany (unemployment, demographic development, reform of the welfare state, economic growth etc.), as already mentioned when we recommended the use of extreme weather events as windows of attention for communication measures to promote climate adaptation.

Many potential impacts of climate change are directly linked to such problems. After the Elbe flood 2002 a tax reform to boost economy and employment had to be postponed for a year in order to finance governmental damage reparation payments.

When temperatures are high, work productivity decreases and the mortality of elderly and infirm increases in buildings in which no cooling measures were implemented. As a consequence of the potential increase in vector-borne diseases (e.g. lyme borreliosis), sick leave and health costs increase and further stress the health care system (see chapter 4.5).

However, there are also opportunities. For example, productivity in agriculture and forestry may possibly be increased (see chapters 4.2 and 4.3). Economic growth also seems possible in the tourism sector, particularly at the coasts of the North and Baltic

Sea, when beach tourists look for alternatives to the exceedingly hot Mediterranean region (see chapter 4.6).

Raising awareness of the necessity of adaptation measures to climate change beyond weather extremes seems possible, when the links between adaptation to climate change and the problems and challenges that currently receive more societal awareness are communicated clearly.

Using Synergies Between the Adaptation to Climate Change and Other Issues

The recommendation to make use of synergies with other issues is tightly related to the previous section. This could concern issues that currently receive a lot of attention in Germany (e.g. unemployment). But there are also many issues, particularly preventive measures that currently receive less attention, but would deserve more with regard to their actual significance. Some of these issues will be exacerbated by climate change. Two examples are flood prevention (see chapter 4.1) and preventive measures against lyme borreliosis (see chapter 4.5). This issues urgently demand action, even without climate change; and climate change increases this urgency.

Conflicts regarding attention and resources between these issues should be avoided and synergies should be used. Furthermore, conflicts with institutions that mainly support the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions should be avoided, and synergies between emission reduction and climate adaptation should be emphasized (e.g.

insulation of buildings, see above).

Coupling Risk Communication to Communication of Adaptation Options

The goal of communication of risks and opportunities of climate change is the promotion of adaptation measures. However, increased awareness of risks will only result in an increased intention to prevent risks and adapt when adaptation options are seen. Those who do not identify options to adapt will not be forced to act adaptively even by the strongest risk communication. Instead, there will be denial (“Nothing will happen.”), fatalism (“What ever will be, will be – I cannot do anything against it.”), or pushing off the responsibility to others (“The Government must take care of this.”) (Grothmann & Patt, 2005).

Therefore, the communication of risks of climate change should always be coupled to the communication of concrete and possibly simple adaptation options. For example, if the goal is to promote the individual preventive behaviour of inhabitants of flood-prone areas, region-wide maps of flood risk, as were often demanded after the Elbe flood, will not suffice. Knowing of a risk and being aware of it does not necessarily mean that affected people will implement preventive measures against flood damages.

Avoiding Catastrophism

In tight relation to the previous section, the communication of climate change impacts should not evoke “catastrophism”, since a risk perception that is too high will quench damage prevention and lead to problem-avoiding reactions like denial, fatalism, and the pushing off of responsibilities. In catastrophism, no adaptation options are seen.

When catastrophic impacts are anticipated, the perception of lacking adaptation options is often justified. Drastic examples of possible catastrophes rather evoke feelings of fear, helplessness and excessive demands, in other cases also defence – thus they result in paralysis rather than stimulating adaptation. To promote adaptation measures, films like the disaster movie “The Day After Tomorrow”, which depicts a new ice age on the Northern hemisphere as a consequence of the collapse of the North Atlantic Current, are counterproductive, but might possibly facilitate emission reductions. Also when using extreme weather events as windows of attention to promote climate adaptation – as described above – communication concepts that stress an increased intensity of extreme events without naming possible preventive measures should be avoided.

Creating Role Models

Communication of risks and adaptation options does not have to be a pure information transfer. An often much more effective form of communication uses role models.

Particularly to communicate possible practical adaptation measures, role models are a very good means. Just as weather extremes can illustrate risks of climate change, role models that have successfully adapted to climate change can illustrate possible adaptation measures.

Such role models can already be found in Germany in various federal states and sectors (see chapter 4). Outside of Germany adaptation measures have proceeded even further (e.g. United Kingdom). To point out such role models in communication measures conveys not only an impression of possible adaptation measures and their necessity, but also a certain competitive pressure.

Communicating Uncertainty Openly

In this entire report we emphasize uncertainty of impacts of climate change through terms like “potential” impacts, “scenarios” or “projections” (not predictions!). In the following sections we will deal with uncertainty in detail: We discuss the sources of uncertainty and the related fact that projections of climate change impacts will always be uncertain, even if scientific methods are further refined (see 6.2.3), and we will show how justified adaptation decisions can be made despite uncertainty (see 6.2.4).

In this section we will start by discussing the challenge that the uncertainty of climate change impacts poses to communication measures promoting adaptation.

Many citizens and decision-makers express a need for certain statements and clear diagnosis, including equally clear recommendations of therapy. Apparently, this expectation is particularly aimed at natural scientists, to which climate researchers belong. On the other hand, the uncertainty of the future is accepted as a matter of course in other aspects of life, and adequate precautionary measures are taken (e.g. in the form of insurances). In places, uncertainty is dealt with rather relaxedly and consciously.

The communication of uncertain impacts of climate change and the necessity of adaptation measures should appeal to this aspect of normality. The future impacts of climate change are uncertain, just like future illness. Just as people attempt to avoid getting ill by precautionary measures, precaution for the potential impacts of climate change should be taken. It should be stressed that the impacts are not entirely uncertain, but uncertain within certain ranges.

It is no alternative to avoid the communication of uncertainty; this leads to incredibility when concrete predictions are not met. The example of the Bank of England shows that a transparent handling of uncertainty can increase the credibility of an institution.

The Bank of England is known for transparent communication of uncertainties in its projections of economic and currency development, and is at the same time the institution with the highest credibility in England.