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Future scenarios of soil water availability at managed grassland ecosystems in

the Austrian Alps

TERENO International Conference 2014 | Sept 29th - Oct 2nd Hammerle A.

1

, Calanca P.

2

, Themeßl M.

3

, Gobiet A.

3

, Wohlfahrt G.

1

1University of Innsbruck, Institute of Ecology, Innsbruck

2Forschungsanstalt Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, Zürich

3University of Graz, Wegener Zentrum für Klima und Globalen Wandel, Graz

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THE BIGGER PICTURE

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CH2011 (2011), Swiss Climate Change Scenarios CH2011, published by C2SM, MeteoSwiss, ETH, NCCR Climate, and OcCC, Zurich, Switzerland, 88 pp. ISBN: 978-3-033-03065-7

Reference period: 1980 – 2009 vs. 2020–2049, 2045–2074 and 2070–2099

Future Climate in the Alps (north-eastern Switzerland)

PROJECTED TRENDS

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http://www.zamg.ac.at/histalp/

RECENT TRENDS

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CLIMATE SCENARIOS SELECTED

ETHZCLM CNRMRM4.5 AITCCLM DMIHIRHAM KNMIRACMO

M A M J J A

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SITES

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ET

max





resid crit

resid ET

ET f

f

ET

)

1

max (

SWCcrit

SWCresid SWCsat

ET = 0

BACKGROUND

Developed by Pierluigi Calanca, Forschungsanstalt Agroscope Reckenholz-Tänikon ART, Zürich (CH)

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PERFORMANCE

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PARAMETER ESTIMATES

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PERFORMANCE

RMSE

R 2

slope

0 1 2 3 4 5

0.005 0.015 0.025 0.035 0.045 0.055 0.065 0.075 0.085 0.095

Number of sites

0 1 2 3 4 5

0.05 0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85 0.95

Number of sites

1 2 3 4 5

of sites

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SCENARIOS - 1961-1990 vs 2021-2050

1

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CHANGES IN SWC - 1961-1990 vs 2021-2050

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SNOW COVER DURATION

snow on snow off

2 weeks 2 weeks

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SNOW COVER DURATION

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SNOW COVER DURATION

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CONCLUSIONS

„SoilBucket“

(i) Efficient

(ii) Good performance

(iii) Broad range of application

Snow cover

(i) less days with snow cover – increase in vegetation period length SWC-trends

(i) no clear trend among the different scenarios concerning SWC (ii) majority of scenarios leads to wetter conditions on average (iii) relative number of dry days does not show any clear trend (iv) length of dry periods is more likely to increase than not

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