• 25% of Nepalis live on less than USD 0.60 per day.
• Over 30% of Nepalis are unemployed or under-employed.
• 125 bandh** days occurred in 2012.
• Bladed weapons: khukuri
• Crude weapons: sticks, stones
• Firearms: pistols, rifles, katuwa
• IEDs: socket bombs, sutali bombs, remote-controlled explosives***
• Armed or criminal groups in Terai and eastern Hills
• Local strongmen in Kathmandu Valley
• Youth wings of political parties
• Security providers: police, armed police, army forces, community groups
M
ore than six years after the end of a civil conflict that claimed over 13,000 lives1 and displaced over 52,000 people (UNCTN, 2011, p. 84), Nepal’s uneasy peace is still plagued by uncertainties linked to the volatile political situation, gridlocks over the drafting of the constitution, the precarious economic situation, and sporadic criminal and armed group activities. The coun
try has also witnessed significant security improvements in this period that have left civilians feeling increasingly safe and prompted changes in patterns of violence. This Research Note provides an overview of the scale and evolving nature of insecurity in Nepal, its geo
graphical distribution, and security responses.
It draws on a comprehensive violence assess
ment involving extensive primary data collected between late 2011 and 2012,2 including the re
sults of a national household survey, interviews with community members and security officials,
At War’s End:
Armed Violence in Nepal
NUMBER 29 • MAY 2013
Small Arms Survey Research Notes • Number 29 • May 2013 1 focus group discussions, a media review,3 and a survey of 160 Nepali businesses.4 The over
all assessment is completed by two indepth studies, on armed groups (Bogati, Carapic, and Muggah, 2013) and firearm ownership in Nepal (Karp, 2013).
The complexities, scale, and manifestations of armed violence
As in many postconflict settings, armed vio
lence in Nepal (see Figure 1) involves a range of actors (such as armed groups, youth wings of political parties, criminal groups, and security providers), various targets (such as individu
als, businesses, media, and state/community officials), and a wide array of instruments (including bladed and traditional weapons, firearms, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs)). The boundaries between the various
R es ea rc h N ot es AR ME D VI OL EN CE
Figure 1. Overview of armed violence in Nepal
* Village development committee.
** See note 7 for an explanation of bandh days.
*** Khukuri are traditional curved knives; katuwa are home-made guns; sutali bombs are bombs made out of cloth or string.
Source: OECD (2009, p. 50); Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, pp. 28–29, 54, 56); Bogati, Carapic, and Muggah (2013); CBS (2011a, p. 18; 2011b, Vol. 2, p. 55); RCHCO (2012)
VICTIMS:
individuals;
businesses;
media;
state/community officials DRIVERS
ACTORS INSTRUMENTS
NATIONAL
DISTRICT
LOCAL/VDC*
categories of violence are blurred and the dynamics are evolving at the local, district, and national levels.
Crime and violence are fuelled by persistent poverty, economic inequal
ities, and political instability. With Nepal remaining on the UN list of leastdeveloped countries, almost one in four Nepalis lives below the poverty line5 and over 40 per cent of all income still goes to the wealthiest 20 per cent of the population.6 Political instability is connected to the failure and ultimate dissolution of the Constituent Assembly charged with producing a new consti
tution, and frequent bandhs.7
While incidents of armed violence figured prominently in media head
lines over the past six years (Racovita and Kafle, forthcoming), the assessment found that only a small proportion of respondents admitted to having been physically attacked or threatened between 2007 and 2011. Only around 4 per cent of the sample of households interviewed reported having experi
enced threats, intimidation, thefts, or robbery (Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, 2013, p. 35). However, these findings vary among groups or soci
etal sectors. For instance, over 50 per
2 Small Arms Survey Research Notes • Number 29 • May 2013
cent of the businesses surveyed in 2012 reported having been victims of at least one crime or violent incident in the period 2007–12 (Racovita et al., forthcoming). The police and the media also frequently report episodes of property crime (the theft of cattle, money, or valuable goods and vehicles, most commonly bicycles and motor
cycles) and various forms of threat (Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, 2013, pp. 40–41; Racovita and Kafle, forthcoming).
The majority of household survey respondents reported feeling safe during their daytoday activities such as going to the market or work
ing around the home, and contended that the security situation had improved from 2010 to 2011. Insecurity is con
centrated around political campaigns and bandhs (see Table 1), which involve crowds and can lead to quarrels or disputes between participants and bystanders.
Focus group participants in Dhanusa, Dankutha, and Banke attributed this higher sense of secu
rity to increased police patrols and greater social cohesion (Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, 2013, p. 26).
Conversely, over a quarter of businesses claimed the risk of them experiencing crime increased between 2011 and 2012 (Racovita et al., forthcoming).
Geographical distribution of violence and insecurity
Notorious for being home to a number of remnant insurgent factions with various political or criminal agendas, the Terai has long been singled out as a hotbed for crime and armed violence (UN Nepal Information Platform, 2012;
IDA et al., 2011; IDA and Saferworld, 2009). Indeed, some Terai districts, such as Banke, Kailali, Dhanusa, Sunsari, and Morang, displayed higher levels of victimization than Hill districts, with 7–16 per cent of these districts’
populations affected by crime or vio
lence (see Map 1).
The security situation in the Terai has improved recently. A majority of respondents in the districts of Dang and Parsa declared that security had improved since 2010 (Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, 2013, p. 36). One expla
nation is the decrease in the overall number of armed groups, which can be credited to increased police activity, but also to separate peace negotiations with the government (Bogati, Carapic, and Muggah, 2013).
However, the security situation in urban areas remained unstable in 2011. Kathmandu Valley (including Kathmandu, Lalitpur, and Bhaktapur), the largest urban agglomeration in the country, stands out as the most unstable area, with 59 per cent of respondents declaring that the security situation had remained the same or grown worse from 2010 to 2011, as opposed to less than 30 per cent in other urban and rural areas (Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, 2013, pp. 47, 49). This is due to the flourishing of organizedcrime activities such as human and red sandalwood trafficking (Saferworld, 2012) and small arms smuggling into Kathmandu (Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, 2013). The presence of local
‘goondas’ (strongmen or thugs) involved in extortion, trafficking, or contract killings also contributes to higher insecurity in the Kathmandu Valley and other urban hubs within their Table 1. Perceived safety levels, 2011
Context/time of day or night Proportion of respondents
Unsafe Safe
Walking around outside the home during the day 16% 84%
Walking around outside the home during the night 36% 64%
Being inside the home during the day 9% 91%
Being inside the home during the night 13% 87%
Walking alone from the home to the market during the day 17% 83%
Walking around the marketplace during the day 13% 87%
Collecting fodder/grass for animals on the land/in the jungle during the day 24% 28%*
Sending children to travel to and from school** 25% 69%
Walking around outside the home during religious festivities 24% 75%
Walking around outside the home during national holidays 10% 78%
Walking around outside the home during political campaigns 55% 38%
Walking around outside the home during bandhs 56% 37%
Notes:
n = 3,048. Respondents were asked the question, ‘How safe do you feel in these contexts?’ This table does not show ‘Don’t know’ responses.
* In response to this question, 44 per cent of respondents chose ‘not applicable’.
** This question refers to how safe the parent felt his/her children were when travelling to and from school.
Source: Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, p. 32)
Small Arms Survey Research Notes • Number 29 • May 2013 3 violence and high levels of confidence in personal safety during daytoday activities, which may be attributed to increased police activity and an over
all decrease in the number of armed groups. At the same time urban areas that have been signalled as emerging hotbeds for criminal activities will also require more targeted security approaches. The findings suggest many areas for improvement, such as tackling political interference in police work and judicial proceedings, and provid
ing more training for police officers.
Notes
1 The precise number of victims of the Nepalese conflict is still disputed, with figures ranging from 13,236 deaths (OHCHR, 2012, p. 14) to 16,009 (UNCTN, 2011, p. 84).
2 The nationwide household survey con
ducted in September 2011 covered 30 districts located in Hill and Terai, from which 3,048 respondents over 15 years of age were selected. To supplement this information, eight key informant inter
views with police, political party repre
sentatives, and local researchers were conducted, as well as six focus group discussions with community members
Source: Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, p. 36)
networks (Bogati, Carapic, and Muggah, 2013). Also, close to half of the respond
ents in the valley declared that, in response to insecurity, ‘quite a few’
or ‘a majority’ of households own firearms—more than any other district in the country (Racovita, Murray, and Sharma, 2013, p. 64). Firearms are not uncommon in Nepal, with an esti
mated civilian firearm ownership of 440,000 small arms, the majority of which are unregistered craft weapons (Karp, 2013, p. 2).
Responses to insecurity:
supply and performance
In response to local security issues, Nepali authorities have mobilized over 60,000 police officers (Nepal Police, 2011), and around 40,000 paramili
taries from the Armed Police Forces (Shresta, 2011). Additionally, the pri
vate sector relies on private security guards, as confirmed by a quarter of businesses surveyed (Racovita et al., forthcoming).
Community leaders and the police were ranked as the most accessible, trustworthy, and responsive institu
tions, while political leaders trailed behind with scores ranging between
‘poor’ and ‘fairly poor’. These negative perceptions are fuelled by persistent political instability, coupled with what many respondents described as the widespread interference by politicians in police work and judicial proceedings (e.g. in the form of pressure to release imprisoned cadres). Perceptions of police performance were generally positive, with close to half of respond
ents stating that performance had improved from 2010 to 2011. Some suggested, however, that more could be done and proposed prioritizing police training over personnel increases and standardizing services, so that the quality of responses is no longer linked to individual police chiefs.8
Conclusions
With a recent history of political instability and economic fragility, the assessment of violence in Nepal found reasons for optimism about the security situation, but also some causes for concern. Data shows a relatively small scale of experienced
DHANUSA
SUNSARI MORANG DHANKUTA BANKE
KATHMANDU KAILALI
CHITWAN MAKAWANPUR LALITPUR KATHMANDU
BHAKTAPUR
PARSA
BARA SARLAHI
DHANUSA RAMECHHAP
KHOTANG
SAPTARI SUNSARI MORANG DHANKUTA
JHAPA PANCHTHAR KASKI
LAMJUNG GULMI
BARDIYA
BANKE
DANG ROLPA JAJARKOT DADELDHURA
KANCHANPUR
NAWALPARASI KAPILBASTU
I N D I A
C H I N A
( T I B E T )
BANKEE BANKE
Map 1 Percentage of respondents who reported having been victimized between 2007 and 2011, by district
>7.0%
4.1%–7.0%
2.1%–4.0%
1.1%–2.0%
< 1%
Not in the sample International boundary
District boundary 0 km 100
and civil society in Banke, Dhankuta, and Dhanusa. For more information on collection tools, see Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, p. 13).
3 The media review featured data on armed violence reporting from four Nepali daily papers over the period 2005–12 (Racovita and Kafle, forthcoming).
4 Extensive analysis of each data set can be found in Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013); Racovita and Kafle (forthcoming);
and Racovita et al. (forthcoming).
5 Over the last ten years the poverty rate has continued to decline, although the situation remains problematic. In 1995–96 more than 40 per cent of Nepalis were estimated to be living in poverty, a number that decreased to around 31 per cent in 2003–04 and reached 25 per cent in 2010–11 (CBS, 2011a, p. 23).
6 According to World Bank data, the 2010 Gini index was 32.8, while the top 20 per cent of the population earned 41.5 per cent of national income in 2010 (World Bank, 2012).
7 Bandh is a form of political or social pro
test (similar to a strike) that entails the stopping of all activity in public spaces and street circulation. In 2012 alone Nepal witnessed 125 unique bandh days, com
pared to 88 unique bandh days in 2011 (RCHCO, 2011; 2012).
8 This section draws on Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, pp. 75–77).
References
Bogati, Subindra, Jovana Carapic, and Robert Muggah. 2013. The Missing Middle: Examin- ing the Armed Group Phenomenon in Nepal.
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Karp, Aaron. 2013. Legacies of War in the Com- pany of Peace: Firearms in Nepal. Nepal Armed Violence Assessment Issue Brief No. 2. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.
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For more information on the Nepal Armed Violence Assessment project, please visit http://www.nepal-ava.org/.
About the
Small Arms Survey
The Small Arms Survey serves as the principal international source of public information on all aspects of small arms and armed violence, and as a resource centre for governments, policymakers, researchers, and activists.
The Small Arms Survey, a project of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, hosts the Geneva Declaration Secretariat.
For more information, please visit www.smallarmssurvey.org.
Contact details
Small Arms Survey, 47 Avenue Blanc, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
t +41 22 908 5777 f +41 22 732 2738 e info@smallarmssurvey.org
About the
Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
This Research Note was published in sup
port of the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development, a highlevel diplomatic initiative signed by more than 100 states, designed to support states and civil society to achieve measurable reduc
tions in the global burden of armed violence by 2015 and beyond.
For more information, please visit www.genevadeclaration.org.
Publication date: May 2013
Credits
Author: Mihaela Racovita Copyediting: Alex Potter (fpcc@mtnloaded.co.za)
Cartography: Jillian Luff, MAPgrafix (www.mapgrafix.com)
Design and layout: Richard Jones (rick@studioexile.com)
4 Small Arms Survey Research Notes • Number 29 • May 2013
Nepal Issue Brief Number 1 May 2013 16
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Sudan Issue Brief Number 6 April 2007 16
About the Nepal Armed Violence Assessment
The Nepal Armed Violence Assessment (NAVA) is a project of the Small Arms Survey. It serves as an independent re- search resource for Nepalese officials, civil society groups, and international partners. The NAVA combines primary and secondary data sources, but focuses on generating original data and analysis through field research. Methods include in-depth interviews with key informants, archival media research, focus groups, and population-based surveys.
The NAVA explores the following key themes:
Small arms transfers, trafficking, availability, and control;
The types and characteristics of armed actors;
The distribution and scale of armed violence and victimization;
Perceptions of armed violence and their economic impacts;
Media depictions; and representations of armed violence.
NAVA publications, which include Working Papers and Issue Briefs, summarize research findings and insight into issues related to violence, its impact, perpetrators and vic- tims, and strategies for prevention and reduction.
NAVA publications are available in English and Nepali.
They can be downloaded at http://www.nepal-ava.org/.
Printed copies are available from the Small Arms Survey.
Credits
Authors: Subindra Bogati, Jovana Carapic, and Robert Muggah Copy-editor: Robert Archer (Plain Sense)
Proofreader: John Linnegar (johnlinnegar@gmail.com) Cartography: Jillian Luff, MAPgrafix
Design and layout: Richard Jones (rick@studioexile.com)
Contact details
Small Arms Survey 47 Avenue Blanc 1202 Geneva Switzerland t +41 22 908 5777 f +41 22 732 2738 e info@smallarmssurvey.org
Nepal Issue Brief Number 1 May 2013 16
Not for distribution - under embargo until 13 May 2013
and civil society in Banke, Dhankuta, and Dhanusa. For more information on collection tools, see Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, p. 13).
3 The media review featured data on armed violence reporting from four Nepali daily papers over the period 2005–12 (Racovita and Kafle, forthcoming).
4 Extensive analysis of each data set can be found in Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013); Racovita and Kafle (forthcoming);
and Racovita et al. (forthcoming).
5 Over the last ten years the poverty rate has continued to decline, although the situation remains problematic. In 1995–96 more than 40 per cent of Nepalis were estimated to be living in poverty, a number that decreased to around 31 per cent in 2003–04 and reached 25 per cent in 2010–11 (CBS, 2011a, p. 23).
6 According to World Bank data, the 2010 Gini index was 32.8, while the top 20 per cent of the population earned 41.5 per cent of national income in 2010 (World Bank, 2012).
7 Bandh is a form of political or social pro
test (similar to a strike) that entails the stopping of all activity in public spaces and street circulation. In 2012 alone Nepal witnessed 125 unique bandh days, com
pared to 88 unique bandh days in 2011 (RCHCO, 2011; 2012).
8 This section draws on Racovita, Murray, and Sharma (2013, pp. 75–77).
References
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2011a. Poverty in Nepal 2010–2011.
Kathmandu: CBS. <http://www.cbs.
gov.np/nada/index.php/ddibrowser/
37/download/219>
—. 2011b. Nepal Living Standards Survey 2010/11.
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np/nada/index.php/catalog/37>
IDA (Interdisciplinary Analysts) et al. 2011.
Armed Violence in the Terai. Kathmandu:
IDA. <http://www.smallarmssurvey.
org/fileadmin/docs/ECoPublications/
SASSaferworld2011armedviolencein
theTerai.pdf>
IDA (Interdisciplinary Analysts) and Safer
world. 2009. On Track for Improved Security?
A Survey Tracking Changing Perceptions of Public Safety, Security and Justice Provision in Nepal. Kathmandu and London: IDA and Saferworld.
Karp, Aaron. 2013. Legacies of War in the Com- pany of Peace: Firearms in Nepal. Nepal Armed Violence Assessment Issue Brief No. 2. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.
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<http://nepalpolice.gov.np/organization
structure.html>
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An Assessment of Armed Violence in Nepal.
Special Report. Geneva: Small Arms Survey.
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nepal.html>
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un.org.np/sites/default/files/Nepal_
CountryAanalysis_2011_Feb2013.pdf>
UN (United Nations) Nepal Information Platform. 2012. ‘Map Centre.’ <http://
un.org.np/resources/maps>
World Bank. 2012. Poverty and Inequality Database. Accessed 21 November. <http://
databank.worldbank.org/data/views/
variableselection/selectvariables.aspx?
source=povertyandinequalitydatabase>
For more information on the Nepal Armed Violence Assessment project, please visit http://www.nepal-ava.org/.
About the
Small Arms Survey
The Small Arms Survey serves as the principal international source of public information on all aspects of small arms and armed violence, and as a resource centre for governments, policymakers, researchers, and activists.
The Small Arms Survey, a project of the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, hosts the Geneva Declaration Secretariat.
For more information, please visit www.smallarmssurvey.org.
Contact details
Small Arms Survey, 47 Avenue Blanc, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland
t +41 22 908 5777 f +41 22 732 2738 e info@smallarmssurvey.org
About the
Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development
This Research Note was published in sup
port of the Geneva Declaration on Armed Violence and Development, a highlevel diplomatic initiative signed by more than 100 states, designed to support states and civil society to achieve measurable reduc
tions in the global burden of armed violence by 2015 and beyond.
For more information, please visit www.genevadeclaration.org.
Publication date: May 2013
Credits
Author: Mihaela Racovita Copyediting: Alex Potter (fpcc@mtnloaded.co.za)
Cartography: Jillian Luff, MAPgrafix (www.mapgrafix.com)
Design and layout: Richard Jones (rick@studioexile.com)
4 Small Arms Survey Research Notes • Number 29 • May 2013
