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S&W 1 1.2
Michael Wegener 03.07.2003
18.07.2003
w§würe,
§"« "1
How to Measure Polycentricity
1. Introduction
Polycentricity is one
of
the core conceptsof
ESPON.Following
the European Spatial Devel- opment Perspective (ESDP), the promotionof
a 'balanced polycentric urban system' is oneof
the most frequently cited
policy
objectives of the programme.Two
policy
options are statedin
support of polycentric development across the European ter- ritory:-
Strengtheningof
several larger zones ofglobal
economicintegration in
theEU,
equippedwith high-quality, global functions
and services,including the peripheral
areas, through transnational spatial development strategies.-
Strengthening apolycentric
and more balanced system of metropolitan regions, city clusters cmdcity
nehyorks through closer co-operation between structuralpolicy
and thepolicy
onthe
Trans-EuropeanNetworks (TEN) and improvement of the links
between interna- tional/national and regional/local transport networks.It
is hoped thatby
encouraging polycentric urban regions, the competitive potentialof
theseregions
will improve
andthat
'dynamic global integration zones' canbe
formed beyond the 'pentagon'defined by the metropolitan areas of London, Paris,Milan, Munich
and Hamburg.The interest in polycentric development
is
fuelledby
the hypothesisput
forwardin
the ESDP that polycentric urban systems are more efficient, more sustainable and more equitable than both monocentric urban systems and dispersed small settlements.The concept
of polycentricity of
settlement structures originated as anempirical
concept inthe
1930s. Central-placetheory
explained hierarchical decentralisationof cities by the
fact that different goods and services command service areas(Christaller,
1933) and market areas (Lösch, 1940) of different size.A
contrasting view was proposed by polarisation theory whichpointed out that increasing economies
of
scale lead to growing concentration in only few largecities
(Perroux, 1955;Myrdal,
1957).Both
perspectives are integratedin
recent resultsof
economic geography (Krugman, 1991; Fujita et a1.,1999)
which
show that different constella- tionsof
economiesof
scale and spatial interaction costs lead todifferent
spatial arrangementsof production and
consumption (seeFigure 1). One important contribution of
these ap- proaches is that notonly vertical
linkages are important but also horizontal linkages between citieswith
complementary economic specialisation.,---) \
rrend___l\ l. )
Policv?-ry
Figure
I.
Spatial structure asfunction
of economies of scale and transport costPolycentricity as a normative concept can be traced back to the concept
of
self-contained sat- ellite towns connectedto
the centralcity by
commuter railways promotedby
the gardencity
movement (Howard, 1900). In the 1940s the Nazis applied Christaller's central-place theory to the occupied territoriesin
Poland recognising that a hierarchical networkof
central places can also be used formilitary
control:"The
finai
dominationof
the Generalgouvernementwill
be basedon
the key positionsof
a regularnetwork of
central places. The central placein
the Generalgouvernement, centre and leaderof its
region and focusof
German culture,power
and economy,will
contain all elements required for the immediate expression of German dominance."
(Schepers, 1942) Despite this ambiguity
of
the concept, many countries adopted central-place concepts as prin- ciplefor
guidingtheir
spatial development afterWorld
WarII.
The hypothesis was that cen- tral-place systems areboth efficient (in
termsof
economiesof
scale) and equitable(in
terms of equivalentliving
conditions).o
Go
t4
o
tao
o oo ur
Disperse spatial structure
Polycentric spatial structure
Polarised spatial structure Polycentric
spatial structure
J
It
canin
fact be argued thatboth
extremes, monocentricity(all
activities are concentrated in one centre) and dispersion(all
activities are equally distributedover
space) perform poorly with respect to thepolicy
goals efficiency, equity and environmental sustainability:-Efficiency. Large centres can
exploit
economiesof
scale and agglomeration effectsbut
suf- fer from negative effectsof
over-agglomeration. Dispersed settlements enjoy nature but are too small to support efficient infrastructure facilities and units of production.- Equity.
Spatial polarisationis built on
competition and so leadsto
spatiai segregation be- tweenrich
and poor, central and peripheral cities. Spatial dispersal is egalitarianin
its distri- bution of poverty but denies its citizens opportunities for socialmobility.
-
Environntent. Large settlements use less energyfor
transportbut
morefor
high-rise build- ings,air-conditioning
and waste management. Dispersed settlements canutilise local
re- newable resources but are wasteful in terms of transport energy and open space.It
is obvious that the optimum lies somewhere in between monocentricity and dispersal, i.e. in a balancedmixture of
large, medium-sized and small cities arrangedin
a pattern favourablelor
exchange and co-operation.This
view
was expressedby
the 'bunch-of-grapes' metaphor proposedby
Kunzmann (Kunz- mann and Wegener, 1991) as adifferent
and more 'co-operative'Leitbild for
urban develop- mentin
Europe" than the'Blue
Banana' proposedby
French geographers(RECLUS,
1989), which was viewed as "the pure expressionof
the competition between the regionsin
Europe"(Kunzmann and Wegener, 1991).
The
authors claimedthat
thebunch of
grapes was more suited to represent the polycentric structureof
the urban systemin
Europe and the fundamen- talsimilaritlt
in 5livsvsityof
the interests and concerns of its member cities (see Figure 2):.Figure
2.
The bunch of grapes (Kunzntann and Wegener, 1991)However,
until
today the conceptof
polycentricity has remained largely at the levelof
rheto-ric without
a precise operationaldefinition (which
putsit into
a classwith similarly
vague concepts such as 'city networks' or 'industrial clusters'). There exists neither a method to iden-tify
or measurepolycentricity
at different spatial scales nor a method to assess the impactsof
polycentricity (or the lackof it) with
respect topolicy
goals such asefficiency
(competitive- ness), equity (cohesion) and sustainability.It
is therefore not possible to determine an optimal degreeof polycentricity
between centralisation and decentralisationor, in
other words, be- tween the extremesof
monocentricity and dispersal. This makesit difficult
to formulatewell-
founded policy recommendations as to which cities should be developedwith
priority.Such recommendations, however, are the ultimate task
of
ESPONi.1.1. It
is therefore essen-tial
that ESPON 1.1.1 develops a clear conceptof polycentricity
and operational methodsfor identifying
and measuring the existingpolycentricity of
the European urban system, predict- ing theirlikely
future development and assessing thepositive
and negative impactsof differ-
ent degreesofpolycentricity
at the regional, national and European scale.To be more
specific,the following
questions needto be
answeredfor the territory of
the European Union at large and for different countries or subregions:- Analysis.
How
canpolycentricity
be definedin
a way that makesit
measurable? How poly- centric is the European settlement structure?Are
there countries that are more polycentric than others? Are there trends towards more polycentricity or towards more polarisation? Are these trends the samein all
countries or subregions or are there significant differences?-
Evaluation.Is polycentricity
desirable?Are polycentric
systemsmore efficient
and more competitive? Doespolycentricity
increase spatial cohesion? Isit
goodfor
the environment?Are there disadvantages, such as agglomeration diseconomies, marginalisation of peripheral areas
or
moretraffic
and congestion?Is
there an optimum degreeof polycentricity
(a bal- ance between efficiency, equity and sustainability?)-
Policy
analysis.What
should be done?Is it
necessaryto
contain thegrowth of
central re- gions? Should one strengthen medium centresor
support peripheral areas?Which
policiesare available
-
taxation, regulation, subsidies, infrastructure?-
Forecasting. Whatwould
be the impactsof
such policies? Whatwould
betheir
effects notonly
onpolycentricity but
also on regional cornpetitiveness and economic performance, on spatial cohesion and on the environment?-
Implementation.How
can the policies be implemented?Which policies
needto
be imple- mentedat the
Europeanlevel,
andwhich
shouldbe left to national
and regions govern- ments?2.
Concepts ofPolycentricity
In
ESPON 1.1.1the
current pattemof polycentricity
and thepotential of
urban regions asnodes
in
a polycentric European urban systemin
the EuropeanUnion,
thetwelve
accession countries andNorway
and Switzerland are being analysedat
three spatial levels: at the re- gional and local level, at the national level and at the European level,including
transnational urban systems (ESPON1.7.I,2003). As units of analysis,'functional
urban areas'were de- finedin
each country.Of
these, urban centres to be includedin
the analysis were selected us-5
ing
sevencriteria: population,
transport (airports,ports), tourism (hotels), industry
(grossvalue
added),knowledge
(universities), corporate decisionmaking
(headquarters) and ad- ministrative function. The selected centres were classified using atypology of
global, Euro- pean, national, regional andlocal
importance.In
addition, accessibility and other indicators were collected and presented for the selected centres.In
aparallel
approachof ESPON
1.1.1,CNRS-UMR
analysedpolycentricity
basedon
the relationallogic of
territories("the
spaceof flows")
proposedby
Castells (1989) focussing on trans-border co-operations (InterregIIa
andIIIa), air traffic
and co-operations between uni- versities (ESPON 1.1.1, 2003).The CPMR study (CPMR, 2002) proposed a typology of urban areas based on the indicators competitiveness (GDP per capita, labour
productivity),
economic decision-making (numberof
headquarters
of the top
1500 Europeanfirms),
humancapital
(shareof R&D
employnent, share of population 25-59 yearsof
agewith
higher education), connectivity (numberof
inter- national flights and destinations) and'driversof
change'(growth of GDP and productivity).The
Draft
Guidance Paper prepared by ESPON 3.1 (2003) proposed a three-level hierarchyof
urban areas: themacro level
(European core, European periphery, accession countries and neighbouring countries),the
mesolevel
(metropolitan areas, urbanised areas and non-urban areas) and themicro ievel
(rnetropolitan areas, cities,towns
andvillages). It
proposed that each NUTS-S region is classified by its membershipin
the macro, meso and micro categories and that each NUTS-3 regionsis
assigned to one meso level group based on the characterisa- tion of its NUTS-5 members.These approaches are useful analyses and classifications
of
urban areasbut
theyfail to
pro- vide a measure of polycentrism orof
its effects. The typologies proposedby
the CPMR study and the ESPON 3.1Draft
Guidance Paper neglect thespatial
dimensionof
polycentric urban systems, i.e. the distance between centres at the samelevel of
the urban hierarchy and be- tween centres at onelevel
and those at lower and higher levels aswell
as the functional rela- tions between centres of the same or different levels. The networking analysis concentrates on the interactions betweenthe
centres at onelevel
and ignores themultilevel
functional rela- tionships between higher-level and lower-level centres, i.e. the linkages between the cities and their peri-urban andmral
hinterlands.What is needed is a methodology which allows
(l)
to measure the degreeof
polycentricityof
aregion, a national urban system or the European urban system at large,
(ii)
to evaluateit with
respectto
thepolicy
objectivesof
European Spatial Development Perspective competitive- ness, colresion and environmental sustainability and(iii)
to forecast the likely impacts of Euro- pean, national or regional economic, transport and telecommunications policies on the degree of poly- centricity and the three policy goals.3.
The ProposedApproach
In this section a method is presented
to identify
centresin
the European urban system and to measure the degreeof polycentricity of
the urban systemsof
the member statesof
the Euro- peanUnion
andof the
accession countries andNorway
and Switzerland aswell
asof
the European urban system at large.3.1
Three Dimensions ofPolycentricity
The approach proposed here
is
toidentify
and measurepolycentricity by
three dimensionsof
polycentric ity'. s i z e, I o c at i on and c onn e c tivity.
These three dimensions are
in line with
the distinction madein
ESPON 1.1.1betweennrcr- phological
aspectsof polycentricity
(hierarchy, distribution, numberof cities)
andrelational
aspects(flows
and co-operations bewteen urban areas atdifferent
scales): size and location describe morphological aspects, whereas connectivity describes relational aspects.Size
The
first
and most straightforward prerequisiteof polycentricity is
that thereis
a distribution of large and small cities.It
can be shown empirically and postulated normatively that the ideal rank-sizedistribution in
aterritory is
loglinear.A
population rank-sizedistribution of
Euro- pean cities over 50,000 population is presented in Figure 3.1 0000000
London Berlin
a a
Madrid '
Paris
Bank
Figure
3.
Rank-size distribution of cities over 50,000population
in EU-27Rank-size distributions
of
citiesin
European countriesdiffer significantly.
Figure 4 shows the rank-sizedistribution of cities with
a populationof
more than 50,000in
France, Germany,Italy
and Spain.It
can be seen that France has a predominantly monocentric city-size distri- bution, whereas Germany) has a historically grown polycentric urban system.7
A first
stepin
analysingpolycentricity of
an urban systemwould
therefore beto
derive its population rank-size distribution.A
possible indicatorof
the size dimensionof
polycentricitywould
bethe
squared residualsof
the rank-sizedistribution from
the regressionline of
the logarithmic transformed population values: the smaller the residuals, the more polycentric is the urban system under investigation. Alternatively, a combined indicatorof city
size and im- pofiance may be used, such as economicactivity,
human capital,higher
education, cultural impofiance. administrative status etc.,***a
I
Figure 4. Rank-size distribution of cities in France, Germany,
Italy
and SpainLocation
The second prerequisite
of
a polycentric urban system is thatits
centresof
equal size or rank are equally spacedfrom
each other-
this prerequisiteis
derived from theoptimal
sizeof
the catchment area or market areaof
centrally provided goods and services. Therefore, a uniform distributionof
cities across aterritory
is more appropriatefor
a polycentric urban system thana highly polarised one where all major cities are clustered in one part
of
the territory.A
second stepin
the analysisof polycentricity would
therefore beto
analyse the distribution of cities of equal size or rank over the territory.One possible approach is to subdivide the
territory of
each countryinto
catchment areas (Thi- essen polygons)of
each centre.This
can be doneby dividing
theterritory into
raster cellsof
equal size and
to
associate each cellwith
the nearest urban centreby airline
distance.tn
this waythe
area, or population, servedby
each centre can be measured. The indicatorof
the 1o-cation dimension
of polycentricity
is then the squared sumof
deviationsof
the areas or popu-lations served
by
each centrefrom
the average areaor
population servedby
a centrein
the whole country. The smaller the squared sumof
deviations, the more polycentricis
the urban system. Insteadof airline
distance also the logsumof
thetravel
times and/or travel costs by road andrail
(and at higher levelsof
the hierarchy alsoby air)
could be used. Altematively, also the mean traveltime
and/or travel cost, again multimodal,by which
each centre can be reachedby
the populationin the
areas seryed could be taken asindicator.
Figures5
and 6 show the subdivision so derived for Germany, the Netherlands and Poland.Figure
5.
Catchment areas of cities over 50,000population in
GermanyFigure
6.
Catchment areas of citiesover
50,000population
in the Netherlands and PolandConnectivit.v
A third
propertyof polycentric
urban systemsis
that thereis functional division of
labour between cities, both between higher-level centres and the lower-level centresin
theirterritory
and betweencities at
equal levelsin
the urban hierarchy.This implies
that the channelsof
interaction between
cities of
equal size and rankbut in
particular betweenlower-level
and higher-level cities are short and efficient.It
is obvious that this requirement may be in conflictwith
the postulate that citiesof
equal size and rank should be equally spaced on the territory.There
principally two
waysto
measure connectivity. Oneis to
measure actual interactions.Ideally, the analysis
would
reveal functional relationships between citiesof
equal size or rank and between citiesof different
size or rankin
the urban hierarchy. Appropriate indicatorsof
such interactions
would be flows of
goodsor
services,travel flows or
immaterialkinds of
interactions, such as telephone calls or e-mails.
At
the levelof
municipalities,infonnation
on such interactionsis rarely
availableor
considered an economic asset, asin
the caseof
travelflow
data heldby
private transport carriersor
telecommunications data heldby
private tele- communications operators.The
secondpossibility is to
measure the potentialfor
interactions. Measuresof
interaction potential could be infrastructure supply, i.e. the levelof
road connections (motorways, roads)or
thelevel of serice of rail
(numberof
trains)or air
(numberof flights)
connections. An- other way is to simply measureproximity
between centres, becauseif
tr,vo centres are close to each other, theprobability
andfeasibility
that functionaldivision of
labouris
implemented is higher thanif
the two centres are distant from each other.Figure 7 is a very sirnple analysis
of
connectivity asproxirnity.
The n"rap shows the same cit- ies in Europewith
a population of more than 50,000 population usedfor
Figure 3. Eachcity
is representedby
acircle
the areaof which is
proportionalto its
population.In
addition, eachcity is
connectedby
aline to
the nearestcity with
larger population. Figures8
and9
show excerptsfrom
the same datafor
Germany, the Netherlands and Poland.It
can be seen that,with
few anomalies, thehistorically
grown urban hierarchy in Europe emerges.Here airline distance was used. However, the analysis could also be repeated
with
travel time and/or travel costvia
networks and so measllre notonly
geographicalproximity but
also the quality of infrastructure supply.In
a furlher step, the travel times and/ travel costs between cities so derived could be used to calculate hypothetical interactions, such as commuter flows, businesstrips
or tourist visits.If
the same behavioural parameters are applied
all
over Europe, countries and regions could be comparedwith
respect to the efficiency and easeof
spatial interactions,for
instancein
terms ofaverage speed.What could be an appropriate indicator
of
connectivity derivedfrom
these results? Simply to give a premium tohigh
speeds and large volumesof traffic
between citieswould
be mislead-ing
asit would
ignoreequity
and sustainability objectives.It will
be necessaryto
develop aconnectivity indicator
which
recognises the needfor
a balance between efficiency, equity and sustainability.11
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Figure 7.
Cities in Europe over 50,000 population connected to the nearest larger cityFigure
8.
Citiesin
Germany connected to the nearest large city.t3
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Figure
9.
Cities in the Netherlands and Poland connected to the nearest large city.With
these threeparlial
indicatorsof polycentricity,
size, location and connectivity, a com- prehensive indicator ofpolycentricity
can be constructed.The proposed method
is, in principle,
independentof
spatial scale.It
can be applied both at the national and at the European level;in
factit
should be attempted tolink
the two levels.The proposed method
differs from
normative approachesto polycentricity in which
a system of central placesin
a country, e.g.taken from a national planning document, is taken as given;instead the polycentric urban system is a result of the analysis.
3.2 ATypology
ofUrban
AreasThere are innumerable ways
of
developing typologiesof
urban regions. Cities may be classi- fied by their size, their location (coastal cities, port cities, border cities, etc.), their administra-tive
function (national capitals, regional capitals, etc.), their economic function (global cities, financial centres, industrial cities, etc..) orby
their functionin
the transport network (railway nodes, airport hubs, etc.).All
of these typologies are of interest for certain purposes.However, for spatial planning the most interesting aspect for the classification
of
cities is their position in the r-nultilevei poiycentric urban system.The three partial indicators
of polycentricityproposed in
Section 3.1, size, location and con- nectivity, can be aggregated to a comprehensive indicator ofpolycentricity.
The indicatorwill
classify each country on a continuous scale of polycentricity and at the same time assign each city a place and level
in
the national and European urban hierarchy.It
may also be possible to apply cluster analysis toverify
and validate the polycentric urban system so derived.The n-rethod can also be used
to
forecastthe likely future
developmentof polycentricity
in Europefor different
scenariosof
urban growth and linkages between cities taking accountof
macro trends such as the enlargernent of the European
Union,
further integrationof
the world economy and intensificationof
the competition between regions andcities
and the develop- ment of energy cost, transport technology and the furtherdiffusion
of telecommunications.Scenarios of the socio-economic development of NUTS-3 regions
in
the EuropeanUnion
andthe
accession countries andNorway and
Switzerland canbe
obtainedfrom the
resultsof
ESPON 2.1.1
"Territorial
Impacts of EU Transport and TEN Policy".4.
PolicyApplications
The indicator
of polycentricity
and thetypology of
urban areas can be usedin
variouspolicy
contexts.One significant application
would
beto
use thetypology for the
assessmentof
future TEN transport and telecommunications policies. The underlying hypothesisis
thatin
awell
devel- oped and balanced polycentric urban system the interactions between higher-level centres are more intense and cover greater distances than those betweenlower-level
centresor
between higher-level centres andtheir
subordinate lower-level centres, and that therefore higher-level centres should be connected by higher-level and faster transport and telecommunications links15
than lower-level centres.
In
the absence of true interaction data, thequality
of the links can be used asproxies for the intensity of
interaction;in this
casethe
analysis contributesto
the identificationof
polycentrism.In
reversalof
the argument, the analysis can be usedto
exam- ine whether the polycentric hierarchyof
centres is supportedby
a corresponding hierarcliyof
networks.
On a more advanced level, the analysis of polycentricity can be used to detennine the optimal degree
of polycentricity with
respectto policy
goals such asefficiency
(competitiveness), equity (cohesion)or
environmental sustainability underdifferent
scenariosof
macro trends such as the enlargementof
the EuropeanUnion, fuilher
integration of theworld
economy and intensificationof
the competition between regions and cities and the developmentof
energy cost, transport technology andthe further diffusion of
telecommunications.It is to be
ex- pected thatthe optimum
degreeof polycentricity will
dependon the
constellationof
these macro trends.It is particularly
herethat
co-operationwith
ESPON 2.1.1will be
important. ESPON 2.1.1will
develop model-based forecastsof
the socio-economic developmentin
termsof
popula- tion and economicactivity in
1,321 NUTS-3 regions in the EuropeanUnion
and the accession countries andNonvay
and Switzerland underdifferent
assumptions about the macro trends indicated above.References
ESPON 1.1.1 (2003): The Role, Specific Situcttion and Potentials
of
Urban Areas as Nodesof
Polycentric Developmerl. Second Interim Report
of
ESPON 1.1.1. Stockholni: Nordregio.Castells,
M.
(1989): TheInfurmational
City. Oxford: Basil Blackwell.Christaller,
W.
(1933):Die
zentralen Ortein
Süddeutschland. Jena.New
edition: Darmstadt:Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft, 1 968.
CPMR (2002): Study on the construction
of
a polycentric and balanced development model for the Europeanterritory,
Conference of PeripheralMaritime
Regionsof
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ESPON 3.1 (2003): From Project Results
to'ESPON
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&
Faber.Krugman, P. (1991): Geography ancl Trade. Leuven: Leuven University Press.
Kunzmann,
K.,
Wegener,M.
(1991): The Patternof
Urbanisationin
Western Europe 1960- 1990. Report toDG XVI of
the European Commission. Berichte aus demInstitut ftir
Raum- planung 28. Dortmund: Instituteof
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rciumlicheOrdnung der Wirtschaft.
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Myrdal, G. (1957): Economic Theory and Underdeveloped Regions. London: Duckworth.
Perroux,
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(1955): Notesur la
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(1942): Raumordnungim
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