THE ROLE OF RURAL-UR3AN MIGRATION IN THE URBANIZATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN KENYA
Henry Rempel
March 1978
Research Memoranda are interim reports on research being conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, and as such receive only limited scientific review. Views or opinions contained herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute or o f the National Member Organizations supporting the Institute.
Copyright @ 1978 IIASA
All ' h e resewed. No part of this publication may be repro
'3
uced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.Preface
Representatives from 132 nations assembled in Vancouver in June of 1976 to convene HABITAT, the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements. The Conference was a global inquiry into solutions of the critical and urgent problems of human settle- ments created by the convergence of two historic developments:
unprecedently high rates of population growth and massive rural to urban migration.
Rapidly growing populations strain health and education budgets, complicate efforts to utilize a nation's manpower
efficiently, and exacerbate problems connected with the provision of adequate supplies of food, energy, water, housing, and trans- port and sanitary facilities. A better understanding of the dynamics and consequences of population growth, particularly with regard to resource and service demands, is therefore an
essential ingredient for informed policy-making.
The Human Settlements and Services Area at IIASA is develop- ing a new research activity that is examining the principal
interrelationships among population, resources, and growth. As part of the preparatory work directed at the design of a case study focused on Kenya, the HSS Area invited Professor Henry Rempel of the University of Manitoba to visit IIASA in an ad- visory capacity. Dr. Rempel is a specialist on economic develop- ment and has published several articles describing migration and urbanization patterns in Kenya. In this paper, presented at a seminar in Laxenburg, Dr. Rempel draws particular attention to migration's contribution to Kenya's structural transformation.
Andrei Rogers Chairman
Human Settlements and Services Area February 1978 Papers of the Population, Resources and Growth Study
1. Nathan Keyfitz, U n d e r s t a n d i n g WorZd M o d e Z s , RM-77-18, April 1977.
2. Andrei Rogers, M i g r a t i o n , U r b a n i z a t i o n , E e s o u r c e s , and D e u e Z o p m e n t , RR-77-14, June 1977.
3. Roman Kulikowski, O p t i m i z a t i o n o f RuraZ-Urban DevsZopment a n d M i g r a t i o n , RM-77-41, August 1977.
4. Frans Willekens, S p a t i a l P o p u Z a t i o n G r o w t h i n D e v e Z o p i n g C o u n t r i e s : W i t h a S p e c i a l E m p h a s i s on t h e I m p a c t o f
A g r i c u l t u r e , internal working paper 1977, forthcoming as a Research Report.
5. Henry Rempel, The R o l e o f RuraZ-Urban M i g r a t i o n i n t h e Urban- i z a t i o n and Economic DeveZopment O c c u r r i n g i n K e n y a , DI-78-12
.
A b s t r a c t
T h i s p a p e r f o c u s e s on r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n Kenya a f t e r i n d e p e n d e n c e i n 1963 and i n c l u d e s a b r i e f s u r v e y o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l f o r c e s t h a t s h a p e d t h e u r b a n i z a t i o n p r o c e s s . The b a s i c t h e s i s i s t h a t r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i s a r a t i o n a l r e s p o n s e t o developmefit i n Kenya. M i g r a t i o n d o e s n o t s h a p e t h i s d e v e l o p m e n t , it i s m e r e l y o n e symptom o f t h e g r o w t h .
D a t a w e r e c o l l e c t e d from a s u r v e y c o n d u c t e d by J . R . H a r r i s , M.P. T o d a r o , and t h e a u t h o r i n 1968 and t h e 1969 P o p u l a t i o n
Census. The i n f l u e n c e o f e d u c a t i o n , a g e , l a n d , and income on t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i s a n a l y z e d . The e f f e c t s o f m i g r a t i o n on r u r a l and u r b a n a r e a s a r e d i s c u s s e d ; however, t h e c o n c l u s i o n s r e a c h e d a r e t e n t a t i v e b e c a u s e a v a i l a b l e i n f o r m a t i o n i s l i m i t e d . The p a p e r c o n c l u d e s by i d e n t i f y i n g i m p o r t a n t a r e a s o f f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i n m i g r a t i o n and u r b a n - i z a t i o n i n Kenya.
Table of Contents
Page
INTRODUCTION 1
THE EXTENT OF URBANIZATION 1
DETERMINANTS OF THE URBANIZATION EVIDENT IN KENYA
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION AS ONE TYPE OF HOUSEHOLD
RESPONSE TO KENYA'S DEVELOPMENT PATH 8
Who Migrates 8
The Determinants of Rural-to-Urban Migration 15 The Degree of the Urban Commitment of Migration 21 SOME OF THE OBSERVED EFFECTS OF RURAL-TO-URBAN
MI GRAT I ON 24
The Effects on the Migrant 24
The Effects on the Rural Areas 25 The Effects on the Urban Areas 27
AREAS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 2 9
References 31
The R o l e o f Rural-Urban M i g r a t i o n i n t h e U r b a n i z a t i o n and Economic Development O c c u r r i n g i n Kenya
I N T R O D U C T I O N
The p u r p o s e o f t h i s p a p e r i s t o summarize t h e s t a t e o f knowledge on u r b a n i z a t i o n i n g e n e r a l , and r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n p a r t i c u l a r , i n Kenya. The d o m i n a n t s o u r c e s o f d a t a a r e t h e P o p u l a t i o n C e n s u s , 1969 ( R e p u b l i c o f Kenya, 1 9 7 1 a ) and a s u r v e y c a r r i e d o u t by J . R . H a r r i s , M . P . Todaro and t h e a u t h o r i n
December, 1968 i n e i g h t o f t h e l a r g e s t u r b a n c e n t e r s i n Kenya.*
The s u r v e y was c o n d u c t e d on t h e b a s i s o f a s t r a t i f i e d random s a m p l e o f a d u l t m a l e s who had moved t o o n e o f t h e e i g h t u r b a n c e n t e r s i n t h e p o s t - i n d e p e n d e n c e p e r i o d (December, 1 9 6 3 ) and w e r e s t i l l r e s i d e n t s t h e r e a s o f December, 1968.
The t o p i c s d i s c u s s e d i n t h e p a p e r i n c l u d e : t h e e x t e n t o f u r b a n i z a t i o n i n Kenya; a b r i e f s u r v e y o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l f o r c e s s h a p i n g t h e u r b a n i z a t i o n p r o c e s s i n Kenya; a d i s c u s s i o n o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n a s a r e s p o n s e by some r u r a l h o u s e h o l d s t o t h e t y p e o f d e v e l o p m e n t o c c u r r i n g i n Kenya; and a summary of known e f f e c t s o f t h i s r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n on t h e m i g r a n t , t h e r u r a l a r e a s and t h e u r b a n c e n t e r s . The p a p e r c o n c l u d e s w i t h a n i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e i m p o r t a n t q u e s t i o n s o f u r b a n i z a t i o n and r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n i n Kenya t h a t c a n n o t b e a n s w e r e d a d e q u a t e l y on t h e b a s i s o f knowledge a v a i l a b l e a t p r e s e n t .
THE EXTENT OF U R B A N I Z A T I O N
~ c c o r d i n g t o t h e 1969 c e n s u s t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f Kenya was 1 0 , 9 4 2 , 7 0 5 o f which 98 p e r c e n t was d e s i g n a t e d a s A f r i c a n . A s i n o t h e r d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , t h e r a t e o f p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e h a s b e e n r a p i d , 3.4 p e r c e n t a n n u a l l y f r o m 1948 t o 1969.
* A d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e s u r v e y , i n c l u d i n g a copy o f t h e
q u e s t i o n n a i r e u s e d , i s p r o v i d e d i n t h e Appendix of Rempel ( 1 9 7 0 ) .
The average rate of increase for Kenya Africans increased from 3.3 per cent during the 1948 to 1962 period to 3.6 per cent from 1962 to 1969.
The 1969 census lists 936,780 people resident in the 11 urban centers with population in excess of 10,000. Of this total 91 per cent were identified as Kenya Africans. Between the 1962 and the 1969 census the average annual rate of increase of African population in the 11 towns was 9 per cent. All the other urban centers had below average rates of growth with Nanyuki experiencing less than the average rate of population growth for Kenya.
Table 1 shows the relative contributions of natural
population increase and net-migration as the sources of urban growth in Kenya. Net-migration accounts for 76 per cent of the
T a b l e 1. The r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n s ( p e r c e n t ) o f n a t u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e a n d n e t - m i g r a t i o n t o t h e g r o w t h o f u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n i n Kenya: 1 9 6 9 c e n s u s .
Born i n Town Not Born i n Town N o t S t a t e d T o t a l A f r i c a n
( N e t - M i g r a t i o n ) P o p u l a t i o n
Urban
C e n t e r s Male Female Male F e m a l e Male Female Male Female
-
-N a i r o b i 1 6 . 9 2 5 . 9 8 2 . 0 7 2 . 9 ' 1.1 1 . 2 2 5 7 , 7 9 5 1 6 3 , 2 8 4
Ki sumu
*
1 3 . 6 1 5 . 7 8 4 . 4 8 2 . 1 2 . 0 2 . 2 2 4 , 0 5 9 1 8 , 7 5 8 Nakur u 1 8 . 3 2 7 . 1 8 1 . 1 7 2 . 4 0 . 6 0 . 5 2 3 , 6 2 4 1 8 , 5 6 6 E l d o r e t * 1 3 . 1 1 9 . 1 7 7 . 6 7 7 . 7 9 . 3 3 . 2 1 3 , 8 8 4 10, 312 T h i k a 1 6 . 8 2 6 . 6 8 2 . 9 7 3 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 4 9 , 971 6 , 6 0 3Nanyuk i 2 3 . 4 2 6 . 9 7 6 . 1 7 2 . 6 0 . 5 0 . 5 5 , 9 2 6 5 , 0 4 2
K e r i c h o 27.5 3 4 . 0 7 2 . 2 6 5 . 5 0 . 3 0 . 5 5 , 3 7 2 3 , 6 8 0
N y e r i 1 7 . 8 47.7 8 1 . 0 5 1 . 1 1 . 2 1 . 2 5 , 3 6 3 3 , 5 5 2
M a l i n d i 4 4 . 6 42.4 5 4 . 0 5 6 . 4 1 . 4 1 . 2 4 , 4 3 8 3 , 1 5 0
T o t a l 1 9 . 2 2 8 . 1 7 9 . 7 7 0 . 7 1.1 1 . 2 4 6 8 , 7 1 2 3 1 1 , 9 8 3
*
The numbers f o r Kisumu were i n c r e a s e d b y a scale o f 1 . 7 7 t o r e f l e c t t h e e x p a n d e d town b o u n d a r i e s . T h e numbers f o r E l d o r e t were i n c r e a s e d b y a s c a l e o f 1 . 5 5 8 t o r e f l e c t more r e a l i s t i c p o p u l a t i o n t o t a l s f o r E l d o r e t.
c u r r e n t u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n . The numbers o f males a n d f e m a l e s b o r n i n e a c h town a r e s i m i l a r , b u t t h e r e l a t i v e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f n e t - m i g r a t i o n i s smaller f o r f e m a l e s t h a n f o r m a l e s i n m o s t c a s e s . A s a r e s u l t , t h e a v e r a g e s e x r a t i o (males p e r 100 f e m a l e s ) i s
1 5 0 w i t h a r a n g e f r o m 1 1 8 f o r Nanyuki t o 1 5 8 f o r N a i r o b i .
The a c t u a l f l o w s , by s o u r c e and d e s t i n a t i o n , a r e g i v e n i n Rempel ( 1 9 7 7 , T a b l e 4 : 3 ) o r Rempel a n d H a r r i s ( n . d . , T a b l e 3-1 a n d 3 - 2 ) . The l a t t e r s o u r c e , ( T a b l e 3 - 4 ) , a l s o p r o v i d e s t h e f l o w s o f r e c e n t m a l e i n - m i g r a t i o n t o e i g h t o f t h e u r b a n c e n t e r s a s o b t a i n e d i n o u r 1968 s u r v e y . A c c o r d i n g t o t h i s s u r v e y , o n e o u t o f e v e r y 14 men i n t e r v i e w e d had moved t o a s e c o n d town d u r i n g t h e f i v e y e a r p e r i o d w h i l e o n e o u t o f e v e r y 8 0 was s u r v e y e d i n a t h i r d town. T h i s shows t h a t 1 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e o b s e r v e d m i g r a t i o n was u r b a n - t o - u r b a n . N a i r o b i and Mombasa w e r e b o t h d o m i n a n t s e n d e r s as w e l l a s r e c e i v e r s o f u r b a n - t o - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , w e d o n o t see a b a s i s f o r a r g u i n g t h a t s t e p - m i g r a t i o n i s o c c u r r i n g i n Kenya.
The u r b a n i n - m i g r a t i o n was d o m i n a t e d by s e v e r a l s o u r c e s : t h r e e o f t h e f i v e d i s t r i c t s i n C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e , Kiambu, Muranga a n d N y e r i ; K i t u i a n d Machakos d i s t r i c t s i n E a s t e r n P r o v i n c e ; t h r e e ~ f t h e f o u r d i s t r i c t s i n Nyanza P r o v i n c e ( K i s i i i s a n e x c e p t i o n ) ; and t h e Kakamega D i s t r i c t i n W e s t e r n P r o v i n c e . N a i r o b i a n d Mombasa t e n d t o a t t r a c t s i z a b l e numbers f r o m m o s t p a r t s o f Kenya. With t h e p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n o f some o f t h e t o w n s i n R i f t V a l l e y P r o v i n c e , t h e r e m a i n i n g towns a t t r a c t m i g r a n t s p r i m a r i l y f r o m t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e s u r r o u n d i n g d i s t r i c t s . R e s i d e n t s f r o m C o a s t P r o v i n c e move p r i m a r i l y t o two t o w n s i n t h a t p r o v i n c e .
When v i e w e d f r o m t h e u r b a n p e r s p e c t i v e , t h e r a t e o f u r b a n i z a t i o n i s h i g h and t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e i n - m i g r a t i o n r e p r e s e n t s a t h r e a t t o t h e e s t a b l i s h e d u r b a n p o p u l a t i o n . B u t , t h e e x t e n t o f u r b a n i z a t i o n i n Kenya i s s t i l l s o s m a l l t h a t u r b a n i n - m i g r a t i o n i s r e m o v i n g o n l y a s m a l l p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n . P r i o r t o 1969 t h e r a p i d u r b a n g r o w t h was a b s o r b i n g o n l y o n e o f e v e r y f o u r new e n t r a n t s t o t h e r u r a l l a b o r f o r c e
(Rempel, 1 9 7 4 , p . 3 ) .
DETERMINANTS OF THE U R B A N I Z A T I O N E V I D E N T I N KENYA
With t h e p o s s i b l e e x c e p t i o n o f M a l i n d i , a t o u r i s t a r e a on t h e Kenya c o a s t , t h e m a j o r u r b a n c e n t e r s i n Kenya a r e a l l d i r e c t p r o d u c t s o f t h e E u r o p e a n s e t t l e m e n t i n Kenya. Mornbasa and Kisumu a r e t h e two t e r m i n a l p o i n t s o f t h e Uganda R a i l w a y . The o t h e r e i g h t a r e a l l l o c a t e d i n t h e f o r m e r White H i g h l a n d s .
The p l a c e o f t h e A f r i c a n i n t h i s c o l o n i a l scheme was t o p r o v i d e c h e a p wage l a b o r ( R o s b e r g and N o t t i n g h a m , 1 9 7 0 , p p . 2 0 - I ) , deemed n e c e s s a r y f o r r a p i d economic g r o w t h . The c o l o n i a l
a d m i n i s t r a t i o n assumed A f r i c a n s would be more p r o d u c t i v e w o r k i n g f o r E u r o p e a n s t h a n i n t h e i r own a r e a s . T h i s d e c i s i o n s h a p e d
government p o l i c y on ~ f r i c a n a c c e s s t o s u c h economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s a s l a n d , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , e d u c a t i o n , i n v e s t m e n t i n improved
a g r i c u l t u r e , a n d p r o d u c t i o n o f c e r t a i n c a s h c r o p s .
The u s e o f m o n e t a r y i n c e n t i v e s t o i n d u c e a n a d e q u a t e l a b o r s u p p l y was r e j e c t e d b e c a u s e ~ f r i c a n s w e r e t h o u g h t t o b e u n r e s - p o n s i v e t o c h a n g e s i n money wages. A s e r i e s o f t a x e s - - p o l l t a x , h u t t a x and t h e n i m p o r t d u t i e s on g o o d s demanded by A f r i c a n s - - w e r e i n t r o d u c e d , a n d s u b s e q u e n t l y i n c r e a s e d when more l a b o r was r e q u i r e d . A l t h o u g h t h e e x p r e s s e d p u r p o s e o f t h e s e t a x e s was t o r a i s e r e v e n u e , t h e Commission R e p o r t by L o r d Moyne i n 1932
i n d i c a t e d t h a t A f r i c a n s r e c e i v e d few b e n e f i t s from t h e i r s u b s t a n - t i a l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e c o l o n y ' s t a x r e v e n u e s (Ingham, 1 9 6 8 , p. 3 3 7 ) .
A l t h o u g h t h e E u r o p e a n s p r e f e r r e d non-wage means o f o b t a i n i n g a d e q u a t e l a b o r s u p p l i e s , t h e y w e r e n o t a b l e t o p r e v e n t some
e m p l o y e r s f r o m i n c r e a s i n g wages d u r i n g p e r i o d s o f r a p i d economic e x p a n s i o n . A l t e r n a t i v e l y e m p l o y e r s r e d u c e d a l l wages t o p r o d u c e more l a b o r g i v e n t h e l e v e l o f c a s h r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t a x p u r p o s e s . F o r e x a m p l e , i n 1920-21 a l l European e m p l o y e r s a g r e e d t o r e d u c e wages by o n e - t h i r d (Van Zwanenberg, 1 9 7 2 a , p . 1 4 ) . By 1952 t h e a v e r a g e wage f o r u n s k i l l e d l a b o r was S h s . 25 p e r month w h i c h was c o n s i d e r e d t o b e i n a d e q u a t e t o p r o v i d e f o r t h e b a s i c n e e d s o f a w o r k e r ( R o s b e r g a n d N o t t i n g h a m , 1970, p p . 2 0 4 - 5 ) . A g o v e r n - ment c o m m i t t e e s e t up i n 1952 t o s t u d y A f r i c a n wages f o u n d t h a t
many A f r i c a n s r e c e i v e d an " i n a d e q u a t e wage" f o r t h e work t h e y p e r f o r m e d .
One of t h e more e f f e c t i v e means f o r o b t a i n i n g l a b o r a t low c o s t was t o h a v e A f r i c a n s , w i t h t h e i r f a m i l i e s and a l i m i t e d number o f c a t t l e , l i v e on European e s t a t e s . L a r g e numbers e n t e r e d i n t o s u c h s q u a t t i n g r e l a t i o n s h i p s , e s p e c i a l l y t h o s e A f r i c a n s whose l a n d had b e e n a l i e n a t e d . T h i s a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r o b l e m was a l t e r e d somewhat by t h e Kenya Land Commission R e p o r t , a c c e p t e d by t h e B r i t i s h Government i n 1938. The r e p o r t a r g u e d f o r more i n t e n s i v e l a n d c u l t i v a t i o n i n t h e European a r e a s b a s e d on i n c r e a s e d European m i g r a t i o n and a l a r g e , m o b i l e A f r i c a n l a b o r f o r c e . The A f r i c a n s w e r e t o s e r v e t h e i r t i m e i n t h e European a r e a s b u t t h e i r r o o t s , f a m i l y , and c a t t l e w e r e t o r e m a i n i n t h e r e s e r v e s and t h e l a b o r e r s w e r e e x p e c t e d t o r e t i r e t h e r e .
I t i s t h i s c o n c e p t i o n o f A f r i c a n l a b o r which p r e v a i l e d i n t h e u r b a n a r e a s t h r o u g h o u t most o f t h e c o l o n i a l p e r i o d . L i t t l e c o n c e r n was shown f o r t h e w e l l - b e i n g o f w o r k e r s , few a m e n i t i e s w e r e p r o v i d e d , and n o p r o v i s i o n was made f o r f a m i l y l i v i n g i n t h e A f r i c a n s e c t i o n s o f t h e towns (Van Zwanenberg, 1972b, p . 1 4 ) . I n t h i s s e t t i n g t h e u r b a n w o r k e r s c o u l d n o t improve t h e i r
p r o d u c t i v e c a p a b i l i t y n o r c o u l d t h e y d e v e l o p a p e r m a n e n t u r b a n way of l i f e . They " . . . h a d t o m a i i ~ t a i n a n economic, s o c i a l , and p o l i t i c a l s t a k e i n t h e i r own t r i b a l a r e a s i n o r d e r t o m e e t t h e minimum r e q u i r e m e n t s o f s u s t e n a n c e and s e c u r i t y f o r t h e m s e l v e s
and t h e i r f a m i l i e s . " ( R o s b e r g and Nottingham, 1970, p . 2 0 5 ) . T h e r e f o r e , by t h e t i m e of i n d e p e n d e n c e , e v e n t h o u g h a number.of A f r i c a n s w e r e employed i n towns, i t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o s p e a k o f an u r b a n l a b o r f o r c e .
S i n c e i n d e p e n d e n c e t h e Kenyan economy h a s d i s p l a y e d some commendable a d v a n c e s . F o r example, t h e a n n u a l r e a l r a t e of g r o w t h o f G r o s s Domestic P r o d u c t ( G D P ) t h r o u g h 1972 was 6.8 p e r c e n t ( R e p u b l i c o f Kenya, 1974, p . 1 4 8 ) . A l s o , d u r i n g t h i s t i m e t h e number o f s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l s a v a i l a b l e and t h e number o f new e n t r a n t s i n t o s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l s h a d b o t h more t h a n d o u b l e d w h i l e t h e number o f s e c o n d a r y s c h o o l g r a d u a t e s had more t h a n
t r i p l e d ( K i n y a n j u i , 1973, p . 7 9 ) . A number o f o t h e r f a v o r a b l e e x a m p l e s c o u l d b e c i t e d .
L e s s commendable i s t h e u n e q u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e b e n e f i t s f r o m t h e s e a d v a n c e s . The s c a n t y e v i d e n c e i n d i c a t e s t h a t most o f t h e b e n e f i t s f r o m g r o w t h a r e a c c r u i n g t o a s m a l l p o r t i o n o f
K e n y a ' s p o p u l a t i o n ; a p p r o x i m a t e l y 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s r e c e i v e 50 p e r c e n t o f t h e GDP (Rempel, 1975;Table 1 ) . T h e s e h o u s e h o l d s i n c l u d e t h e o w n e r s o f l a r g e s c a l e b u s i n e s s e s and f a r m s , s k i l l e d and s e m i - s k i l l e d e m p l o y e e s , and owners o f s m a l l e r b u s i - n e s s e s and c a s h c r o p f a r m s .
The o r i g i n s o f t h i s p a r t i c u l a r d o m i n a t i o n o f t h e economy d a t e - b a c k t o a t l e a s t t h e mid-1950s when e f f e c t i v e power o f t h e economy p a s s e d f r o m t h e w h i t e s e t t l e r community t o t h e u r b a n b a s e d F e d e r a t i o n o f Kenya E n ~ p l o y e r s . A l t h o u g h n o - s u p p o r t i n g d a t a a r e p r o v i d e d , H u n t e r a r g u e s t h a t i n t h e mid-1950s t h e r e was l i t t l e o r n o d i f f e r e n c e i n r e a l e a r n i n g s b e t w e e n u r b a n and a g r i c u l t u r a l w o r k e r s ( H u n t e r , 1 9 6 9 , p . 1 2 1 ) . The C a r p e n t e r R e p o r t o f 1954 a d v a n c e d a f o r m a l a r g u m e n t f o r a high-wage economy a s a means o f a c h i e v i n g a more s t a b l e l a b o r f o r c e (Ibid., p p . 1 2 1 - 2 ) . The
i n c l u s i o n o f f a m i l y r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e minimum wage was p a r t o f t h i s a r g u m e n t .
The C a r p e n t e r R e p o r t was m e r e l y v e r b a l i z i n g w h a t was e v i d e n t a l r e a d y i n t h e l a r g e r m a n u f a c t u r i n g f i r m s : t h e movement t o a h i g h wage, l i m i t i n g t h e l a b o r f o r c e by i n c r e a s i n g t h e c a p i t a l i n t e n s i t y o f p r o d u c t i o n , r e o r g a n i z i n g o p e r a t i o n s t o m i n i m i z e s u p e r v i s i o n c o s t s , a n d o f f e r i n g r e l a t i v e l y a t t r a c t i v e wages t o r e d u c e l a b o r t u r n o v e r and h e n c e t h e c o s t o f p r o v i d i n g o n - t h e - j o b t r a i n i n g . From t h i s t i m e o n t h e r e emerged, e v e n among A f r i c a n s , w h a t h a s b e e n t e r m e d a n ' a r i s t o c r a c y o f l a b o r ' ; t h e r e c e i v i n g o f wages and b e n e f i t s s i g n i f i c a n t l y a b o v e t h e l e v e l o f t h e m a j o r i t y o f e m p l o y e e s i n e i t h e r u n s k i l l e d j o b s o r i n t h e more t r a d i t i o n a l
i n d u s t r i e s (Van Zwanenberg, 1972b, p . 1 6 ) . By 1969 money income p e r employee o f u r b a n , f o r m a l s e c t o r a c t i v i t i e s was e s t i m a t e d t o b e s e v e n o r e i g h t t i m e s t h a t o f r u r a l a c t i v i t y ( R e p u b l i c o f Kenya,
1971b, p p . 4 1 - 2 ) . A c c o r d i n g t o t h e Development P l a n , a v e r a g e u r b a n
household income in 1972 was five times that of the average rural household (Republic of Kenya, 1974, p.95).
This concentration of income and wealth in the hands of a few, places these people in a privileged role by virtue of their position in the economy. Not only do their wealth holdings
enable them to' claim virtually all of the rent and operating surpluses generated in the economy, but also they are able to control the important means of production and dominate the demand for the economy's output.
The taste preferences of this wealthy minority are rather different from that of the other 95 per cent of the population and generate demand for the type of goods and services, which require technology and capital beyond the capability of existing or potential Kenyan businessmen. To overcome constraints, foreign firms have been invited to supply the required technology and
capital, with protection against imports provided as an inducement where necessary.* These firms draw their technology from external sources, thus driving the nature of production into a high wage- low labor content per unit of output. This type of production serves to perpetuate the concentration of income and wealth in the hands of a few.
As a meacs of obtaining and retaining such firms a particular type of infrastructure has been provided in certain urban
localities which, in turn, induces other firms and government to locate in these same urban centers. As a result, in 1968, 45 per cent of all formal sector employment was concentrated in eight towns which accounted for some eight per cent of Kenya's population. Six-tenths of this 45 per cent was located in
Nairobi which provided the most rapid growth of formal sector job creation even though it had the highest level of wages and was
experiencing the fastest growth in wages over time.
*
This 'openness' of the Kenya economy fosters a rather different growth path than the standard growth models of the development literature. The latter tend to be based on internal demand conditions such as were observed in the relatively 'closed' Japanese economy.I n summary, t h e b a s i c s t r u c t u r e o f t h e economy h a s c a r r i e d o v e r f r o m t h e c o l o n i a l p e r i o d . Those p e o p l e who l a c k a c c e s s t o s u f f i c i e n t r u r a l means o f p r o d u c t i o n t o m e e t t h e i r g r o w i n g
a s p i r a t i o n s v i e w u r b a n b a s e d , f o r m a l s e c t o r employment a s o n e means o f o b t a i n i n g a l a r g e r p a r t o f K e n y a ' s g r o w i n g economic p i e . S h o r t l y a f t e r t h e r e s t r i c t i o n s t o movement o f t h e Mau Mau p e r i o d w e r e removed i n 1 9 5 9 , t h e u r b a n p a r t o f t h e economy e v o l v e d i n t o a n e x c e s s l a b o r s u p p l y s i t u a t i o n , i n c o n t r a s t t o t h e l a b o r
s h o r t a g e e v i d e n t e a r l i e r i n t h e c o l o n i a l p e r i o d . C u r r e n t h i g h l e v e l s o f u r b a n unemployment and t h e e k t e n s i v e d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h e u r b a n i n f o r m a l s e c t o r r e f l e c t t h i s movement i n t o t h e u r b a n
'employment l o t t e r y ' .
RURAL-URBAN M I G R A T I O N AS ONE TYPE OF HOUSEHOLD RESPONSE TO
KENYA'S DEVELOPMENT PATH
I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o k e e p i n mind t h a t o n l y a m i n o r i t y o f t h o s e who l a c k a c c e s s t o s u f f i c i e n t r e s o u r c e s i n t h e i r home a r e a h a v e c h o s e n a n u r b a n m i g r a t i o n d e s t i n a t i o n . Of t h e p e r s o n s
s u r v e y e d o u t s i d e o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e d i s t r i c t s o f b i r t h i n t h e 1969 c e n s u s , o n l y 34 p e r c e n t o f t h e m a l e s a n d 25 p e r c e n t o f t h e f e n a l e s w e r z f o u n d i n o n e o f t h e 1 1 m a j o r u r b a n c e n t e r s
(Rempel, 1 9 7 7 , T a b l e 4 : 2 ) * . T h i s h i g h d e g r e e o f s e l e c t i v i t y o f r u r a l r e s i d e n t s who c h o s e t o m i g r a t e r e q u i r e s some d i s c u s s i o n .
I n t h i s s e c t i o n w e summarize t h e known s i m i l a r i t i e s and d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n t h e men i n t h e m i g r a t i o n s a m p l e and t h e men l i v i n g i n r u r a l a r e a s .
Who M i g r a t e s
One f a c t o r i n t h e s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s i s e d u c a t i o n . The more e d u c a t e d a r e more l i k e l y t o m i g r a t e t h a n t h e l e s s e d u c a t e d f o r
*
A c t u a l l y t h e s e p e r c e n t a g e s u n d e r s t a t e somewhat t h e r e l a t i v e i m p o r t a n c e o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n . The u r b a n i n - m i g r a t i o n t o t a l s e x c l u d e movement f r o m r u r a l a r e a s i n a d i s t r i c t t o towns l o c a t e d i n t h a t same d i s t r i c t . T h i s would a p p l y t o a l l u r b a n c e n t e r s e x c e p t t h e c i t i e s o f N a i r o b i and Mombasa.a variety of reasons. First, the extent of information about conditions in the towns available to individual rural residents is directly correlated with education. Second, because of the better access to information and greater ability to adapt to new
situations, the educated are more likely to undertake the risk of a rural-urban move. Third, the return realized for an
additional year of education is higher in towns than in rural areas. Fourth, given the high level of unemployment in towns, the probability of being selected from a given stock of unem- ployed will vary directly with the level of education.
All these effects of education are expressed through such variables as the level of wages in the rural and urban areas and the probability of obtaining employment. A less direct effect of education is the expectations of the family that has contributed to an individuals's educational expenses. If he is successful in the urban scene he has the reward of a good return on a wise investment, and the family which has contributed to his education can expect to share in this reward. The changing economic conditions in towns require ever higher levels of
education to assure such urban rewards, but the expectations and their effect on rural-urban migration persist.
There is considerable evidence in our sample of an association between education and the propensity to migrate (Rempel and Harris, n.d., Table 5-1); The men without formal education are represented poorly in the migration sample relative to the proportions in the rural areas. Men who have completed five or more years of
schooling are represented disproportionately in the sample of
migrants. In general, the more education completed the more over- represented is the group in the migration sample.
The 1 9 6 8 survey information on the timing of the rural-urban
move also provides support for the hypothesis that a move to towns was expected of the educated. Sixty per cent of the men with
some formal education were in school in the quarter prior to migration while 9 1 per cent with some secondary education were
in school immediately prior to migration. Of the men who had
c o m p l e t e d p r i m a r y e d u c a t i o n b u t had n o t c o n t i n u e d o n t o s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n , t w o - t h i r d s had p a s s e d t h e Kenya P r e l i m i n a r y E x a m i n a t i o n . T h i s would i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e c o m p l e t i o n o f a p a r t i c u l a r s t r e a m o f s c h o o l i n g i s a p r o p i t i o u s t i m e f o r m i g r a t i n g b e c a u s e a t r a n - s i t i o n i n t o t h e l a b o r f o r c e i s r e q u i r e d .
A s e c o n d s e l e c t i o n f a c t o r i s a g e . I n p a r t , t h e t e n d e n c y f o r a d i s p r o p o r t i o n a t e number o f t h e r u r a l young t o move t o t h e t o w n s r e f l e c t s t h e c o r r e l a t i o n between a g e a n d e d u c a t i o n .
B e c a u s e o f t h e r a p i d e x p a n s i o n i n e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t i e s a f t e r i n d e p e n d e n c e , many o f t h e b e t t e r e d u c a t e d Kenyans a r e r e l a t i v e l y young. T h e r e a r e s e v e r a l a d d i t i o n a l economic r e a s o n s f o r t h e h i g h e r t e n d e n c y o f t h e young t o m i g r a t e . F i r s t , t h e p o t e n t i a l t i m e s p a n f o r c o l l e c t i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n e x p e c t e d income s t r e a m s b e t w e e n u r b a n a n d r u r a l l o c a t i o n s i s l o n g e r f o r y o u n g e r inen,
t h u s p r o v i d i n g a g r e a t e r i n c e n t i v e t o i n v e s t i n a s p a t i a l move.
S e c o n d , t h e d e g r e e t o w h i c h t h e f u t u r e i s d i s c o u n t e d t e n d s t o v a r y d i r e c t l y w i t h a g e , a n d a s a r e s u l t , t h e e x p e c t e d g a i n s f r o m a move a r e l e s s f o r o l d e r men.
An a l t e r n a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n i s t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t some t i m e s p e n t i n a n u r b a n c e n t e r may c a r r y a d e g r e e o f p r e s t i g e b o r d e r i n g on i n i t i a t i o n i n t o manhood, T h i s e x p l a n a t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t t h e
u r b a n s t a y p r o b a b l y w i l l b e t e m p o r a r y and i t r e d u c e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f d i f f e r e n c e s among a g e g r o u p s i n t h e l e n g t h o f t i m e h o r i z o n s o r t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e r a t e s o f d i s c o u n t . I n t h e i r s t u d y o f u r b a n -
i z a t i o n i n A f r i c a , W i l l i a m a n d J u d i t h Hanna p r o p o s e a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e s e two a l t e r n a t i v e s (Hanna and Hanna, 1 9 7 1 ) . P l a c i n g
p r i m a r y e m p h a s i s o n t h e e c o n o m i c d e t e r m i n a n t s , t h e y a l s o n o t e t h e s o c i a l c o m p u l s i o n o f t h e y o u n g e r g e n e r a t i o n t o d e f e r t o t h e
e l d e r s . B e c a u s e o f t h i s , a m b i t i o u s y o u t h s m i g r a t e t o towns i n o r d e r t o o b t a i n t h e f r e e d o m n e e d e d t o r e a l i z e t h e i r a m b i t i o n s .
The 1968 s u r v e y c o n f i r m e d t h e e x p e c t e d y o u t h f u l n e s s o f t h e m i g r a n t s . The median a g e o f t h e men a t t h e t i m e o f m i g r a t i o n was b e t w e e n 22 a n d 23 y e a r s , a n d more t h a n 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e men w e r e l e s s t h a n 30 y e a r s o l d (Rempel a n d H a r r i s , n . d . T a b l e
5 - 3 ) . The p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e i s c o n s i s t e n t l y h i g h e s t i n t h e
2 0 - 2 4 age category. Although the proportion in the 2 5 - 2 9 age category is actually higher than in the census, except in the Coast Province, the difference for most provinces is rather small. The proportion of migrants over the age of 30 is
considerably smaller. For the young, 1 5 - 1 9 years, the sample and the census percentages are similar, except for Coast Province where there are proportionately more in the migration sample than
in the census.
The identification of the economic variables operative in the migration selection process is more difficult because the
rural data available are not directly comparable to those obtained in our survey. The year 1 9 6 9 has been selected as the reference point because more data are available for that year. In addition to the population census, surveys were made of small farm and settlement scheme employment and of the operation of small/scale, non-agricultural, rural enterprises. Although a reference point in the 1 9 6 4 to 1 9 6 8 period would have been preferable, the year- to-year structural changes in rural economic activity tend to be small. As a result, the use of 1 9 6 9 data does not inject any known bias into the analysis.
Comparing the activity of the men in our migration sample with the available information on the activity of rural males in the
1 9 6 9 census, we find an obvious difference in the high pr~portion
of men in school in our sample ( I b i d . , Tables 5 - 5 and 5 - 6 ) .
Assuming that the self-employed in the census survey are either farmers or marginally employed, the sum is 6 9 per cent. This proportion is well above the 2 6 per cent observed as either in farming or unemployed in our migration sample.
If the comparison is limited to men in our sample who were not in school prior to migration, then the proportion engaged in farming or unemployed rises to 5 5 per cent with a range from
2 4 per cent to 6 9 per cent for young men in Rift Valley Province
respectively. However, all of these young men in Rift Valley Province, 6 2 per cent of these young men in Western Province, and
4 2 per cent of the 5 5 per cent average for the total sample were
unemployed. T h e r e f o r e , i t would a p p e a r t h a t t h e m i g r a t i o n s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s d r a w s h e a v i l y f r o m t h o s e who e i t h e r l a c k t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o f a r m o r who c h o o s e n o t t o f a r m .
Of i n t e r e s t a r e some e x c e p t i o n s t o t h i s g e n e r a l r u l e . Of a l l t h e men n o t i n s c h o o l , a s l i g h t l y l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n e n g a g e d i n f a r m i n g p r i o r t o m i g r a t i o n a r e y o u n g e r men. T h i s u n e x p e c t e d r e s u l t i s c a u s e d by a n a b o v e a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n o f y o u n g e r men f a r m i n g i n E a s t e r n a n d C o a s t P r o v i n c e s and a w e l l b e l o w a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n o f o l d e r men e n g a g e d i n f a r m i n g i n C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e . T h e r e f o r e , t h e l a c k o f f a r m i n g o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e a s a n i m p o r t a n t e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e h i g h r a t e o f o u t - m i g r a t i o n i s s u p p o r t e d by t h e e v i d e n c e p r e s e n t e d h e r e .
The a v a i l a b l e e v i d e n c e i n o u r s u r v e y i n d i c a t e d t h a t o n l y a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f men a r e f a r m i n g b e c a u s e 69 p e r c e n t l a c k e d i m m e d i a t e access t o l a n d ( I b i d . , T a b l e 5 - 7 ) . Of t h e s e l a n d l e s s m i g r a n t s more t h a n h a l f n o l o n g e r h a v e a f a t h e r o r t h e i r f a t h e r s a r e l a n d l e s s a s w e l l . T h e r e f o r e , more t h a n o n e - t h i r d o f t h e
m i g r a n t s a r e p r e s e n t l y l a n d l e s s a n d h a v e no p r o s p e c t o f i n h e r i t i n g l a n d . Of t h e 14 p e r c e n t who c l a i m t o own l a n d a n d whose f a t h e r s p o s s e s s l a n d , a p p r o x i m a t e l y o n e - h a l f r e f e r t o t h e l a n d a s t h e i r l a n d e v e n t h o u g h t h e f a t h e r s t i l l h o l d s i t . F o r t h e t o t a l s a m p l e , o n l y some 10 p e r c e n t o f t h e men p o s s e s s o r a r e l i k e l y t o i n h e r i t more t h a n 5 acres o f l a n d .
Our s u r v e y r e s u l t s l i e b e t w e e n t h o s e r e p o r t e d by R o s s f o r N a i r o b i ( R o s s , 1 9 7 3 ) . H e f o u n d 74 p e r c e n t o f h i s M a t h a r e V a l l e y r e s p o n d e n t s w e r e l a n d l e s s , b u t o n l y 41 p e r c e n t o f t h e r e s p o n d e n t s i n S h a u r i Moyo a n d K a r i k o r c l a i m e d t o b e w i t h o u t l a n d . One
p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i s t h a t t h e r a p i d p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h i n t h e r u r a l areas h a s i n c r e a s e d t h e number o f l a n d l e s s i n r e c e n t y e a r s . An a l t e r n a t i v e a n d more l i k e l y
e x p l a n a t i o n i s t h a t t h e l o n g e r t e r m r e s i d e n t s o f N a i r o b i a r e u s i n g t h e i r u r b a n e a r n i n g s a s a means o f o b t a i n i n g l a n d i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s .
An a l t e r n a t i v e m e a s u r e of l a n d a v a i l a b i l i t y i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h p r o v i n c e by f i n d i n g t h e a v e r a g e number o f a c r e s o f a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d p e r r e s i d e n t a d u l t m a l e . * With some minor v a r i a t i o n s , f o r t h e 31 p e r c e n t o f t h e men i n o u r s a m p l e who h a v e a c c e s s t o l a n d , l a n d o w n e r s h i p i s s i m i l a r t o t h e a v e r a g e amount o f l a n d a v a i l a b l e i n e a c h p r o v i n c e . However, i n C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e t h e amount of l a n d owned p e r l a n d h o l d e r e x c e e d s t h e a v e r a g e amount o f l a n d a v a i l a b l e .
A s w e h a v e s e e n , v e r y few m i g r a n t s own any l a n d . F o r t h o s e m i g r a n t s i n o u r s a m p l e who h a v e l a n d , a c c e s s t o l a n d d o e s n o t a p p e a r t o b e l e s s t h a n f o r t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n i n g e n e r a l . ,
However, more t h a n t w o - t h i r d s of t h e men d o n o t have d i r e c t a c c e s s t o l a n d a t t h e t i m e o f t h e i r r u r a l - u r b a n move. T h i s l i m i t a t i o n i s most e v i d e n t i n C e n t r a l P r o v i n c e which i s a l s o t h e m a j o r s o u r c e of u r b a n i n - m i g r a t i o n .
W e h a v e o b s e r v e d t h a t m i g r a n t s , p r i o r t o m i g r a t i o n , h a v e l i m i t e d a c c e s s t o c a s h income o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n r u r a l a r e a s . I t i s o f i n t e r e s t t o compare t h e income o f t h o s e m i g r a n t s who a r e n o t i n s c h o o l w i t h t h e c a s h income of r u r a l r e s i d e n t s (Rempel and H a r r i s , n. d .
,
T a b l e 5-9).
The a v e r a g e c a s h income o f men p r i o r t o m i g r a t i o n i s S h s . 95 p e r month. The income o f men w i t h some s e c o n d a r y e d u c a t i o n i s more t h a n f o u r t i m e s t h e a v e r a g e b u t t h e number o f men i n v o l v e d i s o n l y s i x p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l s a m p l e . Most o f t h e income i s d e r i v e d f r o m r e g u l a r wage employment, w i t h a few men d o i n g q u i t e w e l l a s t h e s e l f - e m p l o y e d . N e t o a s h r e v e n u e from a f a r m i s a n i n s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f t h e t o t a l income. T h i s r e f l e c t s , i n p a r t , t h e l i m i t e d a c c e s s t o l a n d , b u t it i n d i c a t e s a s w e l l t h a t most of t h e men who a r e f a r m i n g o b t a i n o n l y s m a l l amounts o f c a s h income f r o m t h e s e f a r m s . T h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y e v i d e n t i n E a s t e r n and C o a s t P r o v i n c e s where t h e a b o v e a v e r a g e a c c e s s t o l a n d d o e s n o t g e n e r a t e an a b o v e a v e r a g e l e v e l o f f a r m income.
*
High p o t e n t i a l l a n d i s d e f i n e d a s a q r i c u l t u r a l l a n d w i t h a minimum o f 35 i n c h e s ( 4 0 i n c h e s i n C o a s t p r o v i n c e ) o fr a i n f a l l a n n u a l l y .
The available information on employment income in the rural areas indicates that wage Levels on small farms and in settlement schemes are somewhat lower than modern sector agricultural wages, with the latter being well below the non-agricultural modern sector
wage levels (Ibid., Table 5-10). Therefore, the range of wages paid in rural areas varies considerably, depending on the type of employment. In part, the Shs. 338 per month for non-agricultural modern sector employment includes a premium paid for education.
Such a premium is less evident in agricultural employment.
In addition, several other pieces of information are avail- able for Kenya for 1969. First, some 620,000 small-holders
average less than Shs. 100 per month from cash and food crops grown, while 250,000 small-holders receive between Shs. 100 and 180 per month from their farms.. Second,according to an unpub- lished 1969 survey of non-agricultural enterprises, average
monthly wages paid for men are Shs. 103, ranging from Shs. 87 for casual employees to Shs. 118 for regular employees. Third, net income of the proprietors of these enterprises average Shs. 414 per month. Of these proprietors 75 per cent are farmers as well.
Finally, the average monthly income per household from all sources including subsistence agriculture, is estimated at Shs. 223.
A comparison of our sample with these data indicates that the wage levels of employed men in the migration sample are
similar to modern sector wages paid in the rural areas. The wage level of the men with primary education, most typical of the rural pattern, is only Shs. 1 1 per month below the average rural modern
sector wage. Conversely, cash income from farming is very low.
It is questionable whether many of the farmers in the sample produce enough food to bring their farm incomes to the Shs. 100 a month ceiling observed for the majority of the rural small- holders.
We conclude therefore that the migrants lack access to commercial farming opportunities. In addition, wage levels for the employed compare favorably with the rural average. What
r u r a l push i s e x e r t e d i s more i n t h e form of l i m i t e d a c c e s s t o s u c h o p p o r t u n i t i e s . I n o r d e r t o o b t a i n a t l e a s t comparable economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o t h e n o n - a g r i c u l t u r a l r u r a l wage, t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e men i n t h e sample must t u r n t o t h e u r b a n s c e n e .
.The D e t e r m i n a n t s of Rural-to-Urban M i a r a t i o n *
We c a n summarize t h e g e n e r a l u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e m i g r a t i o n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s by a s e t o f t e s t a b l e h y p o t h e s e s . The r a n g e of r e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s , however, i s c o n s t r a i n e d by t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e .
The f i r s t s e t o f f o r c e s o p e r a t i n g o n t h e d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s i s t h e e x t e n t o f economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n a g r i c u l t u r e i n t h e v a r i o u s d i s t r i c t s . Two f a c t o r s a r e c r u c i a l : a c c e s s t o good a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d and o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r c a s h c r o p s t o
i n d i v i d u a l l a n d owners. Access t o l a n d i s bounded by t h e d e n s i t y o f p o p u l a t i o n p e r h e c t a r e o f h i g h p o t e n t i a l a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d . The e x i s t e n c e of l a n d d o e s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y mean t h a t t h e l o c a l p e o p l e have a c c e s s t o i t , b e c a u s e it c a n b e i n t h e form o f l a r g e e s t a t e s . For t h i s r e a s o n t h e measure o f t h e e x t e n t of commercial a g r i c u l t u r e p r a c t i c e d i n a d i s t r i c t i s l i m i t e d t o t h a t l a n d h e l d a s e i t h e r s m a l l s c a l e f a r m s o r s e t t l e m e n t schemes. The e x p e c t a t i o n i s t h a t t h e e x t e n t of m i g r a t i o n from any one d i s t r i c t w i l l v a r y d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e number o f p e o p l e p e r h e c t a r e and i n v e r s e l y w i t h t h e e x t e n t of c a s h c r o p p i n g p r a c t i c e d .
The second s e t of f o r c e s i s t h e employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s a v a i l a b l e i n towns r e l a t i v e t o what i s a v a i l a b l e i n t h e home a r e a . R e l e v a n t v a r i a b l e s a r e t h e r e s p e c t i v e wage l e v e l s i n t h e two
p l a c e s and t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g employment a t t h i s g o i n g wage. I d e a l l y t h e wages s h o u l d be e x p r e s s e d i n r e a l t e r m s
b e c a u s e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e c o s t of l i v i n g i n t h e two l o c a t i o n s . The p r o p o r t i o n of t h e l a b o r f o r c e engaged i n modern
*
The m a t e r i a l i n t h i s s e c t i o n i s drawn d i r e c t l y from t h e r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d i n Rempel (1977).s e c t o r employment c a n b e u s e d a s a m e a s u r e o f t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g employment. I n p r a c t i c e t h i s p r o p o r t i o n i s
i n f l u e n c e d d i r e c t l y by t h e i n - m i g r a t i o n r e s p o n s e t o employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s . What i s r e l e v a n t h e r e , h o w e v e r , i s t h e p r o s p e c t i v e m i g r a n t ' s p e r c e p t i o n o f t h e employment s i t u a t i o n which n e e d n o t i n c l u d e t h e r e a l i z a t i o n t h a t many o t h e r s a r e l i k e l y t o r e s p o n d i n t h e same manner. What may t r i g g e r t h e i n i t i a l r e s p o n s e i s t h e c r e a t i o n o f new j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s r a t h e r t h a n t h e s t o c k o f unemployed r e l a t i v e t o a g i v e n l e v e l o f j o b s a v a i l a b l e . The e x t e n t of t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n v a r i e s d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e u r b a n c e n t e r s and i n v e r s e l y w i t h t h e i r m a g n i t u d e s i n t h e r u r a l a r e a s . The same a p p l i e s t o non-economic d e t e r m i n a n t s s u c h a s t h e e x t e n t o f a m e n i t i e s
a v a i l a b l e i n t h e s o u r c e a n d d e s t i n a t i o n a r e a s .
A t h i r d s e t o f f o r c e s i s t h e i n t e r v e n i n g f a c t o r s i n t h e r u r a l - t o - u r b a n move. T h e s e i n c l u d e t h e a c t u a l m o n e t a r y c o s t s o f t h e move t o e a c h p o s s i b l e d e s t i n a t i o n . T h e r e a r e a l s o t h e
p s y c h i c c o s t s o f s e p a r a t i o n from a home a r e a . T h e s e a r e c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e c o s t o f t h e move b e c a u s e t h e d e g r e e o f s e p a r a t i o n i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e e a s e w i t h which o n e c a n r e t u r n t o t h e home a r e a f o r p e r i o d i c v i s i t s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e e x t e n t a n d t h e q u a l i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e a b o u t p o s s i b l e d e s t i n a t i o n s v a r y d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e c o s t o f m a i n t a i n i n g c o n t a c t b e t w e e n e a c h town and r u r a l a r e a . The q u a l i t y o f i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e c a n b e improved and t h e p s y c h i c c o s t s r e d u c e d by t h e p r e s e n c e o f f r i e n d s o r r e l a t i v e s i n t h e d e s t i n a t i o n a r e a . T h e r e f o r e , m i g r a t i o n f l o w s b e t w e e n two a r e a s v a r y i n v e r s e l y w i t h t h e c o s t o f t r a n s p o r t a n d t h e d e g r e e o f s e p a r a t i o n b e t w e e n two a r e a s , and d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e e x t e n t o f c l a n c o n t a c t s i n t h e p a r t i c u l a r u r b a n c e n t e r .
F i n a l l y , t h e r e a r e t h e p e r s o n a l f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g t h e m i g r a t i o n d e c i s i o n . ' C e n t r a l t o o u r p o s t u l a t e d d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g
*
The a g e o f m i g r a n t s and t h e l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n c o m p l e t e d a r e r e l e v a n t p e r s o n a l f a c t o r s i n t h e m i g r a t i o n d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g p r o c e s s b u t , g i v e n t h e n a t u r e o f t h e d a t a , m e a s u r e s f o r t h e s e v a r i a b l e s c a n n o t b e d e v e l o p e d .p r o c e s s i s t h e e x t e n t o f t h e a s p i r a t i o n s f o r a way o f l i f e n o t r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e i n r u r a l a r e a s . I n a l a r g e p a r t , s u c h
a s p i r a t i o n s a r e c u l t u r a l l y d e t e r m i n e d . T h e r e f o r e , a s e t o f f i v e dummy v a r i a b l e s a r e u s e d f o r t h e f o u r m a j o r e t h n i c g r o u p i n g s p l u s a l l o t h e r t r i b e s , t o m e a s u r e t h e v a r i a t i o n among e t h n i c g r o u p s o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n , h o l d i n g o t h e r v a r i a b l e s c o n s t a n t . A more d i r e c t m e a s u r e o f a s p i r a t i o n s i n a g i v e n d i s t r i c t i s b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e same a s p i r a t i o n s which d e t e r m i n e t h e d e s i r e f o r e d u c a t i o n d e t e r m i n e t h e d e s i r e f o r u r b a n o p p o r t u n i t i e s . On t h e b a s i s o f t h i s a s s u m p t i o n w e p o s t u l a t e t h a t t h e e x t e n t o f r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n v a r i e s d i r e c t l y w i t h t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f p r i m a r y a g e s c h o o l c h i l d r e n r e c e i v i n g f o r m a l e d u c a t i o n i n e a c h d i s t r i c t .
A d o u b l e l o g a r i t h m , l e a s t s q u a r e s r e g r e s s i o n was r u n f o r t h e t o t a l s a m p l e , m a l e s and f e m a l e s . * The e x p l a n a t o r y power o f t h e model was g o o d , w i t h c o e f f i c i e n t s o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n ( R 2 ) o f 0 . 8 4 , 0 . 7 8 a n d 0 . 8 1 r e s p e c t i v e l y . A l l c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e dummy v a r i a b l e s w e r e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d t h e v a r i a t i o n i n t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e c o ~ f f i c i e n t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e r e were d i f f e r e n c e s among t h e e t h n i c g r o u p s i n t h e i r p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e . The r a n k i n g o f t h e e t h n i c g r o u p s f r o m t h e h i g h e s t t o t h e l o w e s t p r o p e n s i t y i s
N i l o t i c , W e s t e r n B a n t u , C o a s t a l B a n t u , C e n t r a l B a n t u and O t h e r T r i b e s . F o r m a l e s t h e p r o p e n s i t y t o m i g r a t e i s somewhat h i g h e r
i n a l l c a s e s , w i t h t h e l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e s o v e r f e m a l e s i n t h e N i l o t i c and t h e C o a s t a l Bantu g r o u p s .
The c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e o n e e x p l i c i t m e a s u r e o f a n a b s o l u t e r u r a l - p u s h f o r c e , t h e number o f p e r s o n s p e r h e c t a r e o f h i g h
p o t e n t i a l a g r i c u l t u r a l l a n d , a r e n o t s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . I n p a r t t h i s r e f l e c t s t h e c r u d e n e s s o f t h e m e a s u r e s i n c e h i g h p o t e n t i a l i s d e f i n e d s o l e l y i n t e r m s o f t h e amount o f r a i n f a l l
*
The a c t u a l r e g r e s s i o n r e s u l t s a r e p r o v i d e d i n Rempel ( 1 9 7 7 , T a b l e 4 : 7 ) . The d a t a s o u r c e s and t h e method o f m e a s u r i n g t h e v a r i a b l e s a r e g i v e n i n T a b l e 4 : 1 o f t h e same a r t i c l e . The d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e u s e d i s t h e p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l number o f p e o p l e b o r n i n t h e d i s t r i c t i who a r e c o u n t e d i n u r b a n c e n t e r j i n t h e 1969 c e n s u s . The m a t r i x i n c l u d e s 31 d i s t r i c t s o u r c e a r e a s and 10 u r b a n d e s t i n a t i o n s . The town o f M a l i n d i and t h e f o r m e r N o r t h e r n P r o v i n c e had t o b e d r o p p e d b e c a u s e n o t a l l r e l e v a n t d a t a w e r e a v a i l a b l e .r e c e i v e d and i g n o r e s o t h e r r e l e v a n t e c o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s . However, t h e l a c k o f r u r a l p u s h c a u s e d by a h i g h p o p u l a t i o n - l a n d r a t i o d o e s n o t r u l e o u t t h e p r e s s u r e o f l a n d l e s s n e s s i n some d i s t r i c t s c a u s e d by a l a c k o f a c c e s s t o t h e l a n d b e c a u s e o f l o c a l owner- s h i p p a t t e r n s . The a v a i l a b l e e v i d e n c e i n d i c a t e s a m o d e r a t e
p u s h f o r c e . The c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e p e r c e n t o f t h e s m a l l s c a l e a g r i c u l t u r e a n d s e t t l e m e n t scheme l a n d d e v o t e d t o c a s h c r o p s a r e c o n s i s t e n t l y n e g a t i v e a n d s i g n i f i c a n t . The m i g r a t i o n e l a s t i c i t y o f c a s h c r o p o p p o r t u n i t i e s i s l a r g e r f o r f e m a l e s , - 0 . 1 4 , t h a n f o r males, - 0 . 1 0 .
The m i g r a t i o n e f f e c t o f economic o p p o r t u n i t i e s a s m e a s u r e d by a v e r a g e wages s u p p o r t s t h e c o n t e n t i o n o f a r u r a l p u s h r e l a t i v e t o t h e u r b a n p u l l . The c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e u r b a n wage h a v e t h e e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e s i g n w h i l e t h e r u r a l wage c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e n e g a t i v e . A l l c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . With an e l a s t i c i t y o f 3 . 4 3 , a o n e p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v e r a g e u r b a n wage ( S h s . 3 8 5 ) , w i l l c a u s e a n a d d i t i o n a l 0.002 p e r c e n t o f t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n t o move t o t o w n s . C o n v e r s e l y , a o n e p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n d i s t r i c t wages ( S h s . 2 0 8 ) w i l l d e t e r 0.0018 p e r c e n t o f t h e r u r a l p o p u l a t i o n f r o m m i g r a t i n g t o t o w n s . The m i g r a t i o n i m p a c t o f wage c h a n g e s i s somewhat l a r g e r f o r m a l e s t h a n f o r f e m a l e s .
The i m p a c t o f employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s on m i g r a t i o n i s r a t h e r c o n t r a r y t o e x p e c t a t i o n . The p e r c e n t o f t h e e s t i m a t e d l a b o r
f o r c e e r g a g e d i n modern s e c t o r employment h a s a n u n e x p e c t e d
n e g a t i v e s i g n f o r males a n d f o r t h e t o t a l s a m p l e . T h e s e n e g a t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t . The d e t e r r e n t
e f f e c t on m i g r a t i o n o f t h e u r b a n employment r a t e i s much l a r g e r f o r m a l e s t h a n f o r t h e t o t a l s a m p l e . S i m i l a r l y , t h e i m p a c t o f t h e employment r a t e i n r u r a l a r e a s h a s a n u n e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e s i g n f o r b o t h m a l e s a n d f e m a l e s .
T h e r e a r e two p o s s i b l e e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h e s e r e s u l t s . F i r s t , p r o s p e c t i v e m a l e m i g r a n t s may v i e w employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n
t e r m s o f c l a n c o n t a c t s a v a i l a b l e i n a n u r b a n c e n t e r r a t h e r t h a n o f a c t u a l employment r e a l i t i e s . I n o u r 1968 s u r v e y t h e t w o
d o m i n a n t r e a s o n s g i v e n by t h e m i g r a n t s f o r s e l e c t i n g a p a r t i c u l a r d e s t i n a t i o n w e r e : 1 ) t h e b e s t p o s s i b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g employ- ment and 2 ) t h e p r e s e n c e o f f r i e n d s o r r e l a t i v e s i n t h a t town.
While o n l y 38 p e r c e n t o f t h e men r e c e i v e d a s s i s t a n c e f r o m c l a n c o n t a c t s i n o b t a i n i n g t h e i r f i r s t j o b , more t h a n 8 0 p e r c e n t r e c e i v e d f o o d , h o u s i n g o r b o t h f r o m c l a n c o n t a c t s upon a r r i v a l . Second, m i g r a t i o n may b e t r i g g e r e d by t h e number o f new j o b s c r e a t e d . The e x t e n t o f t h e r u r a l - u r b a n m i g r a t i o n r e s p o n s e t o t h e s e new employment o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n c r e a s e s t h e l e v e l o f
unemployment i n t h o s e towns r e c e i v i n g t h e l a r g e s t p r o p o r t i o n o f i n - m i g r a n t s . B e c a u s e o u r v a r i a b l e f o r u r b a n j o b s c r e a t e d h a s a s i m p l e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t o f 0 . 9 w i t h o u r u r b a n income m e a s u r e , t h e e f f e c t o f -jobs c r e a t e d on t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e i s a l r e a d y c a p t u r e d i n t h e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r t h e u r b a n wage l e v e l .
The m e a s u r e o f t h e s k i l l c o n t e n t o f t h e modern s e c t o r employment a v a i l a b l e i n e a c h l o c a t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t , b u t o n l y f o r m a l e s d o t h e u r b a n c o e f f i c i e n t s h a v e t h e e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e s i g n . A l l t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h i s m e a s u r e i n r u r a l a r e a s h a v e a n u n e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e s i g n . F o r m a l e s , t h e c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e more t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s k i l l e d e n p l o y m e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n a d i s t r i c t , t h e more t h e c h a n c e o f b e i n g s e l e c t e d f o r s k i l l e d j o b s i n t h o s e towns w h e r e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f s k i l l e d employment t o t o t a l employment i s
g r e a t e s t . B e c a u s e o f t h e l o w e r l e v e l o f e d u c a t i o n among f e m a l e s , however., t h e s e a r c h f o r employment by t h i s g r o u p n e e d n o t b e
r e l a t e d t o t h e s k i l l c o n t e n t o f t h e j o b o p p o r t u n i t i e s i n a p a r t i c u l a r town.
The r o l e o f a m e n i t i e s i n towns r e l a t i v e t o d i s t r i c t s h a s t h e e x p e c t e d p o s i t i v e s i g n b u t i s s i g n i f i c a n t f o r f e m a l e s o n l y . T h i s would i n d i c a t e a m e n i t y a v a i l a b i l i t y i s n o t a s i g n i f i c a n t d e t e r m i n a n t o f m i g r a t i o n f o r m a l e s . However, t h e p o s s i b i l i t y
s t i l l r e m a i n s t h a t t h e d e s i r e f o r u r b a n a m e n i t i e s i s r e a l l y e x p r e s s e d t h r o u g h income b e c a u s e income i s a n e s s e n t i a l p r e - r e q u i s i t e t o u r b a n a m e n i t i e s .
