SOT FOR QUOT.4TION WITHOUT PERYISSIO?;
OF THE AUTHOR
MUTUAL ARMS REDUCTION SCENARIO (MARS) FOR THE FAP'S STUDY: "HUNGER GROWTH AND EQUITY"
V. Iakimets
September 1985 WP-85-82
Working Fbpers are interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis a n d h a v e r e c e i v e d only lim- ited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o n o t neces- s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t t h o s e of t h e Institute or of i t s National Member Organizations.
IYTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEYS ANALYSIS 2361 L a x e n b u r g , Austria
FOREWORD
Even with globally a d e q u a t e food availability, l a r g e numbers of p e o p l e remain c h r o n i c a l l y u n d e r n o u r i s h e d today. Evaluation of a l t e r n a t i v e national a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i c i e s t h a t c a n h e l p r e d u c e r a p i d l y h u n g e r in t h e world h a s b e e n a m a j o r t h e m e of t h e F.4P s i n c e i t s inception.
Though national r e d i s t r i b u t i v e policies may b e e s s e n t i a l t o r e d u c e h u n g e r at a s a t i s f a c t o r y r a t e , t h e r e s o u r c e s a v a i l a b l e with t h e developing c o u n t r i e s are limited. I n t e r n a t i o n a l c a p i t a l t r a n s f e r s are t h u s needed.
Among t h e s o u r c e s f o r s u c h funds c a n b e r e d u c t i o n in a r m s expendi- t u r e .
With t h e h e l p of FAP's Basic Linked System (BLS) of national a g r i c u l - t u r a l policy models w e h a v e e x p l o r e d consequences f o r economic develop- ment a n d r e d u c t i o n in h u n g e r of mutual a r m s r e d u c t i o n a n d r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of p a r t s of t h e r e s o u r c e s t h u s s a v e d .
In t h i s p a p e r , Vladimir Iakimets e l a b o r a t e s on t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s t h a t should g o i n t o designing a r m s r e d u c t i o n s c e n a r i o s .
K i r i t P a r i k h P r o g r a m L e a d e r Food and A g r i c u l t u r e P r o g r a m
The a u t h o r would like to express his great thanks to Dr. J. Hra- bovszky (IIASA) a n d Professor F. Rabar (Budapest) for fruitful discussions of t h e - earlier draft of this paper and to C. Enzlberger for typing the manuscript.
In t h i s p a p e r t h e classification a n d g e n e r a l description of possible s c e n a r i o s for t h e FAP's book "Hunger, Growth a n d Equity" is given. The main aim of t h e p a p e r is t o consider guidelines for t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of t h e MARS (Mutual Arms Reduction Scenarios), including i t s objectives, assumptions made a n d problems t o be solved. The outline of t h e s t r u c - t u r e of MARS i s given.
-
vii -CONTENTS
1. Introduction
2. On classification of scenarios for the FAP's study "Hunger, Growth and Equity"
2.1. Food redistribution scenarios 2.2. Resources redistribution scenarios 2.3. Distribution of additional scenarios 3. Mutual Arms Reduction Scenarios
3.1. Objective of t h e MARS 3.2. Importance of t h e scenario
3.3. Reduction of military expenditure as a reserve for food problem solution 3.4. Problems of t h e scenario elaboration 3.5. Arms race and developing countries 4. Main assumptions for elaborating the KARS 5. Some guidance for s t r u c t u r e of scenario 6. Conclusions
References
Mutual Arrns Reduction Scenarios (MARS) for the FAP's study
"Hunger, Growth and Equity"
1.
Introduction
The system of interacting national agricultural models c r e a t e d by t h e Food a n d Agriculture Program of IIASA is t h e unique i n s t r u m e n t providing a n oppor- t u n i t y for t h e analysis of t h e behaviour of economies of individual c o u n t r i e s and world market under various influences a n d constraints. The description of t h e Basic Linked System (BLS), i t s s t r u c t u r e , information flows, equations a n d t h e associated estimation problems have been discussed in a n u m b e r of papers (see, for example, K. Parikh and F. Rabar, 1981, G. Fischer and K. Frohberg. 1980, M.
Keyzer, 1980, G. Fischer a n d
K.
Frohberg, 1983). Therefore a repetition is avoided here.Though each national model in this system (BLS) simulates t h e behaviour of a complete economy of a c o u n t r y including agricultural a n d non-agricultural sectors, t h e focus of t h e study of directions for development of food a n d agricul- t u r a l sector is central. The c u r r e n t s t a t u s of t h e BLS allows t h e use of t h i s tool for a n analysis of different ways for improving t h e global food situation in dynamics t h a t could not be done by any other model.
I t
became possible because t h e BLS is t h e simulation system of national agricultural policy models with sectoral breakdown i n t e r a c t i n g through world market.There were two "applied" problems chosen for investigation with t h e h e l p of t h i s tool: trade liberalization a n d t h e hunger problem. In some s e n s e both t h e s e investigations a r e o r i e n t e d t;o illustrate t h e consequences of various economically sound approaches t o t h e improvement of t h e world food situation
a n d t o s e a r c h f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y a n d nationally a c c e p t e d m e a s u r e s t o do it.
Within t h e framework of t h e first s t u d y a t t e n t i o n was mainly paid t o t h e investigation of t h e i m p a c t of c h a n g e s in t r a d e r e l a t i o n s between c o u n t r i e s based mainly on elimination of various p r o t e c t i o n i s t m e a s u r e s (for regions, groups of c o u n t r i e s o r for s e p a r a t e commodities) on t h e world a n d national food situation. The r e s u l t s of t h e s e calculations a r e promising from t h e point of view of t h e operationality of t h e BLS a n d t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n in comparison with r e s u l t s of r e f e r e n c e r u n s (when t h e existing protectionism remains) will be given in t h e monograph on f r e e t r a d e which is now u n d e r p r e p a r a t i o n a t FAP.
The s e c o n d s t u d y is now in progress a n d it's aims a r e t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e possible ways of analysing a n d alleviating t h e h u n g e r problem. One of t h e i m p o r t a n t c o m p o n e n t s of t h i s s t u d y is ( a s i n t h e previous one) t h e development of r e a s o n a b l e s e t of s c e n a r i o s .
This p a p e r c o n t a i n s some ideas for classification of s c e n a r i o s for t h e s e c o n d study. T h e main purpose of t h e p a p e r is t o describe o n e of the s c e n a r i o s ( t h e so-called Mutual Arms Reduction Scenario
-
MARS). The importance of t h i s s c e n a r i o , t h e main a s s u m p t i o n s for it's formulation, problems t o be solved, description of i t ' s s t r u c t u r e a n d q u e s t i o n s of t h i s s c e n a r i o implementation with t h e framework of t h e BLS a r e given in this paper.2. O n
the classification of scenarios for theFAP's
study "Hunger, Growth andEquity"
When one begins t o t h i n k on t h e h u n g e r phenomenon i n o u r time immediately a n u m b e r of g e n e r a l q u e s t i o n s a r i s e .
(1) What a r e t h e r e a s o n s for t h e existence of h u n g e r ?
(2) In what r e g i o n s o r c o u n t r i e s is t h e h u n g e r problem most critical?
(3) What is t h e potential of each country t o feed it's population now and in t h e future?
(4) What a l t e r n a t i v e paths a r e available t o reach t h e required levels of food consumption in different countries?
(5) Are available resources (land, labour, capital, etc.) all over the world enough t o i n c r e a s e food production and t o feed t h e world's population?
(6) Are these r e s o u r c e s rationally allocated within countries and among coun- tries?
( 7 ) Is food c u r r e n t l y produced in t h e world enough t o feed the world's popula- tion?
(8) Is food produced within t h e countries distributed in t h e best way?
(9) What measures undertaken now to help t h e poorest countries a r e fruitful?
(10) What kind of policy implications a t t h e national and international levels have t o be made to improve the situation?
The problem of hunger, starvation a n d malnutrition is a grievous paradoxi- cal problem of o u r time. Mankind has made colossal achievements in terrestrial science and technology, nuclear research, computers, etc., explored o u t e r space and a t t h e same time has not managed to solve t h e global problem of pro- viding basic vital requirements for food t o all the people of t h e world. -
Reflections on t h e questions raised above, analysis of t h e world food statis- tics as well as discussions a t t h e FAP's seminars gave rise t o t h e persuasion t h a t significant alleviation of t h e hunger problem is possible ( a t least from a theoret- ical point of view).
Let 1-1s raise , t h e question whether t h e r e are feasible ways t o solve this problem now a n d in t h e future. And we can give positive answers. There a r e a t least t h r e e visible directions to be analysed with the help of t h e BLS:
(1) redistribution of food produced in t h e world
(2) redistribution of input resources available for agricultural production (3) searching f o r a n d distribution of additional input resources.
2.1.
Food
redistributionscenarios
In order t o outline this s e t of scenarios l e t u s consider a very oversimplified pic- t u r e of t h e h u n g e r situation in t h e world a n d in different countries. For t h i s purpose we will use general indicators estimating food supply s u c h a s daily sup- ply of calorie and protein p e r caput. Let u s n o t e t h a t various o t h e r indicators like vitamins supply per c a p u t can be used also. If one compares t h e values of these indicators for various countries, t h e n o n e s e e s t h a t t h e r e a r e countries where t h e s e values a r e lower t h a n t h e required ones. A t l e a s t in t h e s e coun- tries h u n g e r must exist. Even among those c o u n t r i e s where t h e average availa- bility exceeds t h e requirement, t h e r e may be h u n g e r d u e t o uneven distribution of calories a c r o s s people.
There a r e estimates showing t h a t existing level of food production in t h e world is already quite enough t o provide for t h e r e q u i r e d level of food on a p e r capita basis if t h e available food is distributed properly. See for example, FAO, 1983 and Table 1. What does i t mean? It m e a n s t h a t in average t h e problem of required volume of food production has been solved in t h e world. However, we can say t h a t we solved t h i s problem only a t t h e average. because large dispro- portions of food supply per capita between different p a r t s of t h e world exist now (see Table 1). For example developing countries have more t h a n 70% of world population (excluding socialist countries) a n d produce only 30% of main staple foods. According t o some experts'
(Y.I.
Charzov, e t a1 1982) estimations in t h e developing c o u n t r i e s 400 million people suffer from malnutrition, 100 million children a r e t h r e a t e n e d with death because of undernourishment a n d lack ofvitamins.
Based on data from Table 1 one can conclude t h a t redistribution of food produced in t h e world would be sufficient to solve t h e hunger problem. How- ever, i t will be an oversimplified understanding of t h e problem which can be called statistical speculation. The problem is t h a t s u c h a food redistribution is unrealistic one due mainly t o the poor financial situation of a number of developing countries and t h e y cannot use t h e world market a s a source for improvement of t h e food supply in the country. I t should be n o t e d also t h a t t h e existing approach t o directing food aid is not geared primarily t o solving t h e hunger problem. An example which illustrates this is t h e following. According t o UNITAR (1980) t h e food aid for developing countries with
GDP
per capita equal and lower than 250 U S dollars was estimated to be 1.8 US dollars per cap- i t a At t h e same time for c o u n t r i e s whereGDP
per capita is more t h a n 250 US dollars. food aid per capita is equal t o approximately 3.2 US dollars. In o t h e r words t h e least developed countries receive less food aid. It is a paradox but such a fact shows t h e shortcomings of t h e existing p a t t e r n s for food aid.Table 1 DAILY PER CAPUT CALORIE SllPPLY AS PERCEPT OF REQUIREMENTS
Devel oping market economies A f r i c a
Far East L a t i n America Near East
Other dev' i ng market economies Asian c e n t r a l l y p l anned economies T o t a l dev.el opi ng c o u n t r i e s
Least Developed Countries 88.3 84.1 84.1 82.9 84.3 83.1 65.0
T o t a l devel oped c o u n t r i es 128.4 130.8 133.1 131.2 132.2 133.7 133.4
Nor1 d 104.8 106.5 109.8 107.0 109.1 110.4 l l 0 . C
Source: FAO, 1983, p . 5
Taking into account all t h e s e arguments, it would be interesting t o design a s c e n a r i o for t h e BLS t o analyse t h e impact of food redistribution on t h e h u n g e r problem in t h e world. However, one needs t o define appropriate r u l e s for distri- buting international food aid a n d for bearing t h e costs of s u c h aid. This class
af
scenarios for FAP's study on h u n g e r could be called "Fbod Redistribution Scenarios"(F'RS).
An objective of t h e s e scenarios is t o analyze what kind of changes in t h e world market mechanism, in food aid activity a n d in correspond- ing exchange behavior of s e p a r a t e c o u n t r i e s will be favorable ones for t h e improving t h e food consumption by those who a r e c u r r e n t l y h u n g r y in t h e world population.2.2.
Resources Redistribution Scenarios(RRS)
I t
would n o t be an exaggeration t o say t h a t t h e most u r g e n t , goal-oriented a n d promising approach t o t h e solution of t h e food problem would be aid from t h e developed countries in establishing a steady and reliable basis for effective agricultural production in developing countries. In order t o provide for s u c h a basis t h e implementation of cardinal socio-economic transformations and agrarian reforms in t h e s e c o u n t r i e s is a necessary condition.In o r d e r t o implement s u c h transformations developing c o u n t r i e s need appropriate resources. Let u s t u r n once more t o statistical d a t a ( s e e Table 2).
One can see from this table t h a t developed countries with 30% of t h e world's population produce 60% of t h e food, have 70% of t h e world income a n d p u r c h a s e 80% of t h e total agricultural inputs. This means t h a t developing c o u n t r i e s have only 20 p e r c e n t of t h e total purchased agricultural i n p u t s t o provide t h e food needs of 70% of t h e world's population.
If
t h e situation remains a s it is t h e n we c a n say t h a t n o transformations will help t o c r e a t e a national basis for effective agricultural production and t o improve t h e food supply. So o n e c a n conclude t h a t by redistribution of available i n p u t resources t h e c r e a t i o n of a nationalbasis for effective agricultural production and hence for increasing t h e food supply in developing countries can be achieved. I t is reasonable from t h e whole list of i n p u t resources (land, bio-climatic potential, energy, machinery, chemi- cals. technology, labor a n d capital) take into account only those which a r e related t o purchased inputs (energy, machinery, chemicals a n d technology) and of course capital investments8.
Table
2.
Statistics for developed and developing countries, 1960Source : Woods, R. G. 1981
*
Ln some serm redistribution of labor (consumers) considered as a migration process, can also be analyzed.DEVELOPING
7 0 % 40%
30%
20%
POPULAT1ON FOOD PRWUCTION l NCOME
INPUTS '
DEVELOPED
30%
60%
7 0 % 80%
An objective of s c e n a r i o s of t h e RRS g r o u p is t o analyze what kind of i n t e r - n a t i o n a l a n d national admissible a n d acceptable policies for redistribution of t h e above mentioned r e s o u r c e s will be t h e most preferable from t h e point of view of t h e i r impact on t h e development of agricultural s e c t o r s i n t h e develop- ing c o u n t r i e s a n d what kind of c h a n g e s will occur in those in t h e developed c o u n t r i e s . I t would be i n t e r e s t i n g also t o l e a r n what reasonable marginal volume of e a c h of t h e s e r e s o u r c e s available for agricultural production will be t h e most useful t o be redistributed. I t c a n be foreseen t h a t all of t h e s e r e s o u r c e s now available for world a g r i c u l t u r a l production will t u r n o u t t o be s c a r c e ones t o solve t h e h u n g e r problem for a reasonable time period.
2.3. Distribution
ofAdditional Resources (DAR)
If t h e prediction made in t h e l a s t s e n t e n c e of t h e previous s e c t i o n i s very similar t h e n t h e following question a r i s e s ; namely, whether t h e r e a r e a n y addi- t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s which could be u s e d for t h e solution of t h e problem u n d e r consideration. Necessity of s e a r c h i n g for s u c h additional r e s o u r c e s is confirmed by t h e r e s u l t s of a r e c e n t s t u d y entitled "Land r e s o u r c e s for t h e populations of t h e f u t u r e " c a r r i e d o u t by t h e FA0 in collaboration with t h e FAP of IIASA a n d financially s u p p o r t e d b y t h e United Nations Fund for Population Activities (FAO/IIASA/UNFPA, 1983) (FAO, 1984) and Shah e t a1 (1985).
The most i m p o r t a n t r e s u l t from t h i s s t u d y is t h a t for t h e y e a r 2000 a n u m b e r of c o u n t r i e s in Southwest Asia a n d Africa will be critical from t h e p o i n t of view of domestically providing r e q u i r e d food supply t o t h e i r population, even if t h e volumes of i n p u t s for a g r i c u l t u r a l production is raised t o a t l e a s t t h e i n t e r m e d i a t e level.. The s i t u a t i o n would improve when t h e high level of i n p u t s is used. However, even i n t h a t c a s e a number of critical c o u n t r i e s would
*The intermediate level according t o the authors' definition means limited use of improved varieties and chemicals, reduced fallow, animal traction a s well as manual labor' simple con- servation measures; optimum crop mixes on half of t h e land.
remain. In o t h e r words r e s u l t s of t h i s study show t h a t without distribution of additional r e s o u r c e s t h e h u n g e r problem remains. I t would b e difficult t o u n d e r t a k e a n y efforts if s u c h additional r e s o u r c e s did n o t exist. Fortunately t h e y do exist now, however, t h e s e r e s o u r c e s a r e n o t u s e d for t h e solution of u r g e n t problems t o mankind. These r e s o u r c e s a r e t h o s e u s e d now for t h e a r m s race.
3.
Mutual Arms Reduction Scenarios
I t would n o t be a n exaggeration t o say t h a t major and fundamental precon- ditions for t h e solution of c u r r e n t a n d f u t u r e global problems, s u c h a s energy, food a n d so o n , i s t h e elimination of t h e t h r e a t of war. Stopping t h e a r m s r a c e , switching d l production forces from military t o peaceful aims could n o t only lead t o eliminating of t h e t h r e a t of human civilization, b u t could provide favor- able conditions for overcoming t h e whole s e t of global problems s u c h as ecologi- cal, energy, non-renewable resources, food a n d social ones. We will n o t discuss h e r e t h e possible advantages from t h e reduction of t h e a r m s r a c e for t h e solu- tion of all of t h e s e global problems, a n d focus o u r a t t e n t i o n only on t h e food problem.
3.1. Objective of the W S
Development of t h e abovementioned s c e n a r i o i s aimed t o show once more t h a t all c o u n t r i e s all over t h e world will be t h e g a i n e r s i n a social and economic s e n s e when t h e r e s o u r c e s used for military purposes will be t r a n s f e r r e d t o civil production. This is self-evident a n d t h e rationality of s u c h t r a n s f e r e n c e of r e s o u r c e s is practically beyond a n y doubt.
T h e r e a r e a l o t of established facts and r e s u l t s of scientific r e s e a r c h illus- t r a t i n g t h a t r e d u c t i o n of t h e arms race would lead n o t only t o physical saving o u r civilization b u t would be favorable t o t h e improvement of social a n d
economic s i t u a t i o n i n c o u n t r i e s a t different levels of development. See for example,
Y.I.
Chazov, e t a1.,1982; Responsibility for...,
1983;P.R
Ehrlich, e t al., 1983; WHO, 1984; UN 1971.This s c e n a r i o is devoted t o t h e analysis of possible a l t e r n a t i v e s for t h e util- ization of t h e r e s o u r c e s released from t h e a r m s r a c e for t h e solution of t h e social a n d economic problems in different c o u n t r i e s (mainly in
LDC)
a n d basi- cally t h o s e with relatively l a r g e agricultural s e c t o r s .The s c e n a r i o
MARS
s u g g e s t e d h e r e h a s a s i t s objective t h e s e a r c h for a l t e r - natives of utilization of r e s o u r c e s released a n d t o find t h e more preferable u s e s from t h e point of view of:-
e r a d i c a t i o n of h u n g e r ;-
improvement of individual c o u n t r y economy;-
smoothing (equalizing) t h e levels of development of different c o u n t r i e s ;3.2. Importance of the scenario
The i m p o r t a n c e of t h e s c e n a r i o
MARS,
o n e c a n realize from t h e following citation."We believe t h a t t h e t a s k of delivering mankind from t h e burden of arma- m e n t s is a r e a l i s t i c objective. We a r e confident t h a t a n e n d t o t h e s e n s e l e s s waste of efforts a n d r e s o u r c e s , a n d t h e conversion of t h e vast industrial, scientific a n d technological potential t o peaceful u s e s will open u p b r o a d oppor- t u n i t i e s for t h e c r e a t i o n of m a t e r i a l benefits a n d improvement of t h e quality of life. We c l e a r l y visualize t h e beneficial effect d i s a r m a m e n t would have for clearing t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l a t m o s p h e r e of f e a r a n d suspicion, for t h e develop- m e n t of fruitful i n t e r n a t i o n a l cooperation a n d t h e joint efforts t o solve
the glo-
bal problems
ofour
time such aseradicating hunger
anddisease. satisfying
man's needs for food. energy
andraw materials. protecting the environment
and
harnessing the resources of the World Ocean and Outer Space ( i t i s a c c e n - t u a t e d by us)." From: Appeal of t h e Conference of Soviet s c i e n t i s t s for ridding h u m a n i t y of t h e n u c l e a r war t h r e a t a n d for disarmament and peace. Moscow May 17-19, 1983.3.3. Reduction of military expenditure as a reserve resource for food problem solution.
In December. 1981 t h e booklet o n t h e r e s u l t s of studies c o n d u c t e d by UN e x p e r t s was published. The d e s t r u c t i v e power of t h e n u c l e a r weapons accumu- l a t e d in t h e world s u r p a s s e s a million t i m e s t h a t of t h e atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 (see also
Y.I.
Chazov e t al, 1982). Let u s r e m e m b e r t h a t t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s of t h i s explosion were t e r r i b l e .The a r m s r a c e s i n c e 1945 h a s consumed u p 6,000.000 million dollars A t t h e p r e s e n t t i m e n e a r l y 1 million dollars p e r m i n u t e a r e s p e n t in t h e world on arms.
In o t h e r words. a n n u a l military spending equals t o 600,000 million dollars.
This r e p r e s e n t s a huge r e s e r v e of financial, human a n d physical r e s o u r c e s which could be u s e d for t h e solution of t h e world social a n d economic ills.
Contemporary militarism i s t h e g r e a t e s t t h r e a t to mankind, even when only limited military operations a r e c a r r i e d o u t . Why? Because it h a s become o n e of t h e m a i n obstacles t o solving global, social, economic a n d c u l t u r a l problems.
Vast manpower (skilled manpower!!) a n d raw material r e s o u r c e s (mainly non- renewable!!) a r e being u s e d for military purposes. The same could be said in r e l a t i o n t o l a n d u s e d for t h e s e purposes.
In o t h e r words, a r m s r a c e d i s t r a c t s production capacities, scientific knowledge, intellectual power of mankind from t h e solution of i m p o r t a n t civil problems such a s h u n g e r , unemployment, exhaustion of n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , pol- l u t i o n of t h e environment, a n d overcoming differences i n development of
developed a n d developing countries.
The implementation a n d extension of military programs gave r i s e t o t h e problem of "lost opportunities" which becomes more a n d more pressing.
Mankind "loses" time, non-renewable resources, new inventions which could improve o u r life because of t h e failure t o implement t h e u r g e n t a l t e r n a - tive civilian programs.
I t
should be s t r e s s e d t h a t t h e s e lost economic a n d social opportunities make o u r c u r r e n t existence worse a n d will make themselves felt in t h e f u t u r e .For example, since t h e e n d of t h e Second World War, t h e c o s t of a i r c r a f t c a r r i e r s i n c r e a s e d by 10
-
20 times, bombers by 30-
40 times, s u b m a r i n e s by 40-
50 times, a n d fighters by 100-
150 times.According t o Y.I. Chazov e t al, 1982, 60% of a n n u a l funds which a r e expended f o r a r m s could be enough for c o n s t r u c t i o n of 50 million fiats (for 300 million people), o r for c o n s t r u c t i o n of 0.6 million schools (for 400 million chil- dren).
I t
would be simple t o c o n t i n u e s u c h examples a n d comparisons, s e e for example, UN, 1971. However, all t h e abovementioned seems t o be already q u i t e convincing t o s a y t h a t within t h e framework of t h e FAP's "Hunger, Growth a n d Equity" a s c e n a r i o of t h e world a r m s expenditure reduction o u g h t t o be included.3.4.
Problems
ofthe scenario elaboration.
In o r d e r t o implement t h e s c e n a r i o MARS within t h e framework of t h e BLS a n u m b e r of problems have t o b e solved.
1. Estimation of volumes a n d r a t e s of military expenditures r e d u c t i o n in developed a n d developing c o u n t r i e s . Calculation of volume of potential r e s o u r c e s released.
2. Identification of c r i t e r i a a n d c o n s t r a i n t s for allocation of t h e s e funds within DC a n d LDC for t h e solution of t h e i r i n t e r n a l economic problems.
Determination of t h e priority of s u c h c r i t e r i a f o r c o u n t r i e s with different levels of development.
3. Determination of s h a r e s of utilization of funds t h u s c r e a t e d in between domestic u s e a n d both in DC a n d LDC.
4. Elaboration of versions f o r allocation of r e s o u r c e s in LDC from own release f u n d a n d fund c r e a t e d by DC.
5. Elaboration of versions for utilization of own r e l e a s e r e s o u r c e s in DC.
6 . Working o u t t h e list of indicators for comparisons of base a n d s c e n a r i o r u n s .
7 . Generating t h e versions of s c e n a r i o for implementation with for t h e BLS.
8. Description of possible a d j u s t m e n t s of t h e BLS (if necessary).
3.5.
Arms race and developing countriesOne of t h e fundamental problems of o u r time is overcoming t h e g a p between t h e economic development levels of different countries, developed a n d developing ones.
The b u r d e n of t h e a r m s r a c e affects t h e developing c o u n t r i e s even more t h a n t h e developed ones. For t h e period of t h e l a s t 20 y e a r s for example, GNP of developing c o u n t r i e s h a s tripled b u t t h e i r military spending h a s i n c r e a s e d s e v e n times. (See Responsibility for
....
1983)I t s e e m s t o u s t h a t t h e r a t e of reducing t h e s e expenditures in developing c o u n t r i e s m u s t be t a k e n t h e same a s for developed c o u n t r i e s (10%) o r may be even more?
The following proposal i s worth t o t e s t i n t h e BLS. In o r d e r t o a t t a i n self- sufficiency of developing c o u n t r i e s i n food i t would be enough t o provide for
t h e m e x t e r n a l a i d f o r 5 milliards dollars p e r year.
I t
is equal t o less t h a n 1% of c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e of developed c o u n t r i e s for a r m s (approximately t h e costs for t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n of 3 modern n u c l e a r submarines). So t h i s s h a r e (1%) c a n be t a k e n a s a p a r t of funds r e l e a s e d from developed c o u n t r i e s for aid t o develop- ing ones.I t i s expedient t o d e t e r m i n e ways of t h e s e money i n v e s t m e n t s in developing c o u n t r i e s . F i r s t of all l e t u s t r y t o outline t h e main r e a s o n s of c r i t i c a l food s i t u a t i o n i n many developing c o u n t r i e s ,
-
backwardness of social a n d economic s t r u c t u r e s ,-
weakness of t e c h n i c a l a n d technological capabilities;-
low a g r i c u l t u r a l productivity;-
b u r d e n of e x t e r n a l debt;Hence t h e main d i r e c t i o n s for food problems solution in developing coun- t r i e s are:
-
progressive social transformations;-
technological progress; a n d-
i n v e s t m e n t s .4. Main assumptions for elaborating the
MME
I t is e x p e d i e n t t o a c c e p t t h e following assum.ptions:
1. Information on military e x p e n d i t u r e s of each c o u n t r y have t o b e based on official n a t i o n a l statistics.
2. Admissible levels of r e d u c t i o n of military e x p e n d i t u r e s in all c o u n t r i e s have t o b e c o o r d i n a t e d with available estimations of corresponding i n t e r n a t i o n a l organizations.
3. The way of utilization of r e s o u r c e s released in LDC a n d DC have t o be s u c h t o m e e t t h e opportunities of t h e BLS o r t o lead t o only minimal a d j u s t m e n t . 4. Initial d a t a on released funds i n LDC a n d DC a r e given exogenously a n d will
be endogenized during r u n s .
5 . Utilization of r e s o u r c e s i n e a c h c o u n t r y h a s t o be smooth for t h e period u n d e r consideration a n d h a s t o m e e t t h e r u l e s of decision making i n t h e n a t i o n a l policy module of t h e FAP's models.
6. Volumes of t r a n s f e r r e d r e s o u r c e s have t o remain within absorptive capaci- t i e s of national economy of LDCs a n d DCs a n d have t o be c a l c u l a t e d exo- genously.
7. List of indicators for comparison of base a n d s c e n a r i o s r u n s h a s t o coincide with t h o s e availab!e from t h e BLS where they a r e calculated endogenously.
5.
Some guidance for structure of scenario
The most interesting information from t h e point of view of possible s c e n a r i o s for t h e
FAP
h u n g e r book i s estimation t h a t 8-
10% of r e c e n t a n n u a l e x p e n d i t u r e s for arms would b e enough for solution of h u n g e r problem in t h e world for t h e period of several y e a r s .The Soviet proposal on t h e r e d u c t i o n of t h e military budgets of s t a t e s per- m a n e n t members of t h e UN S e c u r i t y Council by 10 p e r c e n t a n d utilization of p a r t of t h e s e saved funds t o provide aid t o developing c o u n t r i e s was s u b m i t t e d by t h e USSR in 1973 for consideration of t h e 27th UN General Assembly Session.
Unfortunately t h i s initiative h a s n o t been p u t i n t o practice.
An i d e a i s t o use s u c h estimations a s guidelines for elaborating t h e s c e n a r i o MARS.
Because e a c h of t h e problems mentioned in t h e section 3.4 h a s s e v e r a l ver- sions of solutions t h e n i n f a c t a n u m b e r of t h e s c e n a r i o MARS c a n be
constructed. Figure 1 c o n t a i n s t h e description of some s u c h versions. For example, s c e n a r i o ( a l , b l , c l , d2, e l , f3, g2) means t h a t for all c o u n t r i e s we fix t h e value of military e x p e n d i t u r e s a t t h e e n d of t h e period u n d e r study, all of t h e m began t h e r e d u c t i o n of t h e s e expenditures without a n y delay, all developed c o u n t r i e s a g r e e d t o
fix
c o n s t a n t s h a r e of own r e l e a s e d r e s o u r c e s for c r e a t i o n of joint aid f u n d which has t o be d i s t r i b u t e d among LDC according t o t h e comparative d a t a on t h e i r national income a n d absorptive capacity, own r e l e a s e d fund in DC i s u s e d for increasing i n v e s t m e n t s in different s e c t o r s of t h e economy proportionally t o t h e i r contribution t o t o t a l n a t i o n a l income, addi- tional r e s o u r c e s from a i d fund a r e used i n LDC for p u r c h a s i n g agricultural i n p u t s a n d from own r e l e a s e d f u n d for development of n a t i o n a l a g r i c u l t u r a l pro- duction.6-
Conclusions
This paper contains some g e n e r a l ideas f o r t h e construction of scenarios f o r t h e FAP's study T i u n g e r , Growth and Equity". The classification of possible scenarios i s suggested h e r e . The main aim of t h e p a p e r i s t o d e s c r i b e t h e scenario XARS considering c u r r e n t milittry expenditures as a s o u r c e f o r zdditional r e s o u r c e s now available in t h e world f o r t h e solution of t h e hunger problem. The importance of t h i s s c e n a r i o , main assumptions f o r i t s construction, problems t o b e solved as weil as t h e outline of s c e n a r i o s t r u c t u r e have been described h e r e . ' R e n e x t p a p e r will b e devoted t o t h e formalized description of s e p a r a t e s t a g e s f o r t h e
MARS
scenario.r n ' u C, 0
al r n r l o E k a - 4 c , o c c ,
m u 0 5 al U - 4 n
.
$ a l u - 4 al
c r n u k ~
' " c , & 2 8
l u c o o c
O a l k U . 4 al
k Q k 4
r n ' u h . 4 (d
a ' u E al c
0 - 4 O C 0 k a ~ c , - 4
U O c ,
C C U O ( d - 4 -4 al c, C
Responsibility for t h e f u t u r e of o u r planet, proceedings of a Conference of Soviet s c i e n t i s t s for Ridding H u m a n i t y of the H u c l e a r War Threat and for D i s w - m a m e n t a n d B a c e , Novosti P r e s s Agency Publishing House, Moscow,
1983.
Shah M.M., G. f i s c h e r , G.M. Higgins, AH. Kassam, a n d L. Naiken (1985) People, Land a n d Food Production
--
Potentials in t h e Developing World. CP-05-11, IIASA. LaxenburgUN (1971) Economic a n d Social Consequences of t h e Armaments Race a n d i t s Extremely Harmful Effects on World P e a c e a n d Security, UN, New York.
UNITAR (1980) Food a n d Agriculture in Global Perspective. Discussions in t h e Committee of t h e whole of t h e UN. Pergamon Press.
WHO (1984) The Consequences of Nuclear War for Health of t h e Population a n d Health Care S e r v i c e s
Woods, R G . (ed.) (1981) F u t u r e Dimensions of World Food a n d Population, West- view Press, Colorado, USA
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Chazov, Y.I., e t al. (1982) The Danger of Nuclear War (Soviet Physicians' viewpoint). Novosti P r e s s Agency Publishing House, Moscow.
Ehrlich, P.R., e t al. (1983) Long-Term Biological Consequences of Nuclear War, Science, Vol. 222, pp. 1293-1300, December 1983.
Fischer. G. a n d K. Frohberg (1980) Simplified National Models
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t h e condensed version of t h e Food a n d Agriculture Model System of the IIASA. WP-80-56, IIASG Laxenburg.Fischer, G. a n d K. Frohberg. (1983) The Basic Linked System of t h e Food a n d Agriculture Program a t IIASA. An overview of t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e National Models. In:
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Levien, A Wierzbicki,B.
Arthur (eds.) Mathematical Model- ling a t IIASG RR-83-7, IIASG Laxenburg.FA0 (1983) The S t a t e of Food a n d Agriculture 1982, FAO, Rome.
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G.M.,
A.H. Kassam, L. Naiken, G. Fischer and M.M. Shah (1982) P o t e n t i a l Population Supporting Capacities of lands in t h e Developing World. Technical report. FAO/UNFPA/IIASG Rome.Keyzer, M. (1980) An Outline of IIASA's Food a n d Agriculture Model. WP-80-9, IIASA, Laxenburg.
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