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Ecosystem Services and Management

Michael Obersteiner

Blitz, 2017

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Food for a Week, Displaced Family, Chad

© 2007 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

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Food for a Week, German Family

© 2005 PETER MENZEL PHOTOGRAPHY

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Land Use Change

Courtesy: StoraEnso

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Courtesy: StoraEnso

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DATA

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Cropland Disagreement

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Cropland Capture Game

Classified 2.5 million pixels in 7 weeks

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Probably the most accurate cropland map

See et al., 2014

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POLICY IMPACT ASSESSMENT

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11 18 crops (FAO + SPAM)

Wheat, Rice, Maize, Soybean, Barley, Sorghum, Millet, Cotton, Dry beans, Rapeseed,

Groundnut, Sugarcane, Potatoes, Cassava, Sunflower,

Chickpeas, Palm Fruit, Sweet potatoes

3 different systems

Cropland Grassland

7 animals (FAO + Gridded livestock)

Cattle & Buffalo Sheep & Goat

Pig Poultry 8 different systems

Managed forest

RUMINANT Digestibility model

 Feed intake

 Animal production

 GHG emissions

Downscaled FAO FRA at grid level

Area Carbon stock

Age Tree size

Species Rotation time

Thinning

G4M Global Forest

model

 Harvestable wood

 Harvesting costs

La n d u se P ro d u ct io n

Global Land Cover 2000

BIOENERGY Processing

 MJ biofuel

 MJ

bioelectric

 Coproducts

Short rotation plantation

s

Land suitable for Poplar Pillow Eucalyptus Productivity from

literature

ECONOMIC MARKET + Spatial equilibrium trade  PRICES

Other natural

land Natural

forest

Food Fibers Energy

La n d c o v e r M a rk e ts D e m a n d

Water

Population, GDP, preferences

EPIC

Rain, Snow, Chemicals

Subsurface Surface Flow

Flow

Below Root Zone

Evaporation and Transpiration

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LAND USE IN BRAZIL - INDC

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Details of Policy Instruments Matter Regenerated Forest – 2050

Forest code Forest code Forest code

Without TPs with TPs Small Farms Amnesty

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Outlook

• Scope

• Ecosystem Services (e.g. biodiversity)

• Earth System linkage

• Macro-economics

• Globally consistent National Assessments – NDC/SDG

• Time consistent transition planning

Referenzen

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