Towards Our Common Digital Future

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Towards Our Common Digital Future

Flagship Report

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Towards Our Common

Digital Future

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WBGU is an independent, scientific advisory body to the German Federal Government set up in 1992 in the run-up to the Rio Earth Summit. The Council has nine members, appointed for a term of four years by the federal cabinet. The Council is supported by an interministerial committee of the federal government comprising representatives of all ministries and of the federal chancellery. The Council’s principal task is to provide scientifically-based policy advice on global change issues to the German Federal Government.

The Council

• analyses global environment and development problems and reports on these,

• reviews and evaluates national and international research in the field of global change,

• provides early warning of new issue areas,

• identifies gaps in research and initiates new research,

• monitors and assesses national and international policies for sustainable development,

• elaborates recommendations for action,

• raises public awareness and heightens the media profile of global change issues.

WBGU publishes flagship reports every two years, making its own choice of focal themes. In addition, the German government can commission the Council to prepare special reports and policy papers. For more information please visit www.wbgu.de.

The Council Members

Prof Dirk Messner (Chair)

Director of the United Nations University – Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS), Bonn and Co-Director of the Center for Advanced Studies on Global Cooperation Research, University of Duisburg-Essen

Prof Sabine Schlacke (Chair)

Professor of public law, executive director of the Institute for Environmental Law and Planning Law, University of Münster

Prof Martina Fromhold-Eisebith

Chair of Economic Geography, Department of Geography at RWTH Aachen University

Prof Ulrike Grote

Director of the Institute for Environmental Economics and World Trade at Leibniz University of Hannover and Senior Fellow at Center for Development Research (ZEF), Bonn

Prof Ellen Matthies

Professor for Environmental Psychology, Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg

Prof Karen Pittel

Director of the ifo Center for Energy, Climate and Resources and Professor of Economics, esp. Energy, Climate and Exhaustible Natural Resources, Faculty of Economics, University of Munich

Prof Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE

Director Emeritus of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)

Prof Ina Schieferdecker

Director of Fraunhofer Institute for Open Communication Systems (FOKUS) in Berlin, Professor for Quality Engineering of Open Distributed Systems at TU Berlin and Director of Weizenbaum Institute for the Networked Society

Prof Uwe Schneidewind

President and Chief Research Executive of the Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy;

Professor for Sustainable Transition Management at the University of Wuppertal

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Towards Our Common

Digital Future

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IV

Bibliographic information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek

The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie;

detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de.

ISBN 978-3-946830-03-0

The reproduction and distribution of original WBGU text material and charts, including extracts, is permitted for non-commercial purposes, provided that the source is acknowledged. Text material and charts from third-party sources are subject to the copyright conditions of the respective sources.

Translation: Bob Culverhouse & Margaret Helliwell, Berlin

The R&D project that generated this report was conducted on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety under grant number 01RIO708A4. Responsibility for the content of this publication rests with the author.

Design: WERNERWERKE GbR, Berlin

Cover photos: © gettyimages: Marcia Straub „An Abstract Image of the Woods“ and Flashpop „Group of children wearing virtual reality headsets“

Production: WBGU Typesetting: WBGU

Printing and binding: Ruksaldruck, Berlin

Recommended citation: WBGU – German Advisory Council on Global Change (2019): Towards Our Common Digital Future. Flagship Report. Berlin: WBGU.

Secretariat Luisenstrasse 46 D-10117 Berlin Germany

Phone: +49 30 26 39 48 0 Email: wbgu@wbgu.de Web: www.wbgu.de Copy deadline: 12.04.2019

Lead authors: Martina Fromhold-Eisebith, Ulrike Grote, Ellen Matthies, Dirk Messner, Karen Pittel, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Ina Schieferdecker, Sabine Schlacke, Uwe Schneidewind

Co-authors: Karoline Augenstein, Robyn Blake-Rath, Katharina Bohnenberger, Agata Bossy, Marcel J.

Dorsch, Marian Feist, Juliana Gärtner, Maja Göpel, Ulrike Jürschik, Karen Krause, Carsten Loose, Reinhard Messerschmidt, Maximilian Müngersdorff, Inge Paulini, Nele Petrusjanz, Johannes Pfeiffer, Benno

Pilardeaux, Teresa Schlüter, Gesa Schöneberg, Astrid Schulz, Benjamin Stephan, Paul Szabo-Müller, Hannah Wallis, Nora Wegener

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V Scientific Staff at the Secretariat

Prof Maja Göpel

(Secretary-General; since September 2017) Dr Inge Paulini

(Secretary-General; until April 2017) Dr Carsten Loose

(Deputy Secretary-General)

Marcel J. Dorsch, MA Dipl.-Päd. (Univ.) (since May 2017)

Dr Reinhard Messerschmidt (since May 2017) Dr Benno Pilardeaux

(Head of Media and Public Relations) Dr Teresa Schlüter (until April 2019) Dipl.-Ing. Dipl.-Jur. Gesa Schöneberg (until August 2017)

Dr Astrid Schulz

Dr Benjamin Stephan (until February 2017)

Administration, Editorial Work and Secretariat Viola Märtin, Dipl.-Kulturarbeiterin (FH)

(Secretariat, Event Management) Mario Rinn, BSc

(System Administration and Graphics) Martina Schneider-Kremer, MA (Publishing Management)

Scientific Staff to the Council Members Dr Karoline Augenstein

(Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy; until May 2017)

Robyn Blake-Rath, MA

(Leibniz University Hannover; since March 2019)

Katharina Bohnenberger, MA

(Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy; since June 2017 until April 2019) Dipl.-Jur. Agata Bossy

(Institute for Environmental Law and Planning Law – IUP, Münster; until April 2017)

Dr Marian Feist

(United Nations University, Bonn; since February 2018)

Juliana Gärtner, MPhil

(Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK; since February 2017)

Ulrike Jürschik, Dipl.-Jur.

(Institute for Environmental Law and Planning Law – IUP, Münster; since May 2017)

Karen Krause, MSc

(Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg; since April 2019)

Dr Maximilian Müngersdorff

(German Development Institute – DIE, Bonn; until December 2017)

Nele Petrusjanz, MSc

(Leibniz University Hannover; until February 2019) Dr Johannes Pfeiffer

(ifo Center for Energy, Climate and Resources, Munich)

Paul Szabo-Müller, MA

(Department of Geography at RWTH Aachen University)

Dr Hannah Wallis

(Otto-von-Guericke-University Magdeburg; until March 2019)

Nora Wegener, MA

(Fraunhofer Institute for Open Communication Systems FOKUS, Berlin; since March 2017)

Council Staff

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VI

The WBGU would like to thank all external experts for their input and valuable assistance. Specifically, the fol- lowing expert reports and statements, which are available on the WBGU website, were integrated into this report:

> Prof Dr Wolfram Burgard (Faculty of Engineering, Autonomous Intelligent Systems, University of Frei- burg): Künstliche Intelligenz, 2018.

> Prof Dr Dr hc mult Niels Birbaumer (Institute of Medical Psychology and Behavioural Neurobiology, University of Tübingen): Technologien und Visionen der Mensch-Maschine-Entgrenzung, 2018.

> Prof Dr Jeanette Hofmann (Berlin Social Science Center – WZB): Internet Governance, 2018.

> Dr A. R. Köhler, Jens Gröger and Ran Liu (The Oeko- Institut): Kurzgutachten Energie- und Ressourcen- verbräuche der Digitalisierung, 2018.

> Prof em Dr.-Ing. Dr hc mult Paul J. Kühn (University Stuttgart, Institute of Communication Networks and Computer Engineering – IKR): Informationstechnis- che Gestaltung einer nachhaltigen Digitalisierung, 2018.

> Constanze Kurz and Frank Rieger (Chaos Computer Club – CCC): Netzpolitische Handlungsoptionen für eine nachhaltige Digitalisierung, 2018.

The WBGU received valuable suggestions from hear- ings of experts during its internal conference held in Nauen in May 2018 and during its regular internal meetings: Prof Dr Jeanette Hofmann (Berlin Social Science Center – WZB); Prof Dr Nick Bostrom (Univer- sity of Oxford, Future of Humanity Institute); Prof Dr Sabine Trepte (University of Hohenheim, Media Psychology Department).

During the hearing of experts on the ‘Relationship between Humans and Machine’ (‘Verhältnis Mensch–

Maschine’) held on 18 October 2018, the WBGU had the opportunity to exchange views with: Dr Aljoscha Burchardt (German Research Center for Artificial Intel- ligence – DFKI, Member of the Enquete-Commission on Artificial Intelligence of the German Parliament) and Dr Jan Alexandersson (German Research Center for Artifi- cial Intelligence – DFKI, CEO Startup ‘ki elements’).

The topic of this flagship report was examined in greater depth during the expert discussion on ‘Digitali- zation’ with representatives of the research community that was held on 14 December 2017 in Berlin:

Dr Christian Anton (Leopoldina); Dr Stefan Brandt

(Futurium); Prof Dr Martin Grötschel (Berlin-Branden- burg Academy of Sciences and Humanities – BBAW); Dr Rüdiger Haum (Futurium); Dr Karl Eugen Huthmacher (BMBF); Dr Susanne Kadner (acatech); Prof Dr Paul J.

Kühn (University of Stuttgart); Dr Ulf Lange (BMBF);

Prof Dr Armin Reller (University of Augsburg); Dr Christoph Revermann (Office of Technology Assess- ment at the German Bundestag – TAB); Prof Dr Jürgen Roßmann (RWTH Aachen); Dr Stefan Schneider (BMBF).

The event entitled ‘WBGU Discussions: the Good Digital Life – the Environmental Perspective’ (‘WBGU im Gespräch: Gut Leben Digital – die Umweltperspek- tive’) on 16 March 2018 also served to gain a more profound understanding of the topic: Dr Harald Bajorat (BMU); Dr Stefan Bergheim (Center for Societal Pro- gress); Hubertus Drinkuth ( Systain Consulting); Vivian Frick, MSc ( Institute for Ecological Economy Research – IÖW); Walter Kahlenborn (adelphi); Kai Kallweit ( Bitkom); Michael Marten (BMU); Dr Carsten Neßhöver (German Advisory Council on the Environment – SRU);

Nilgün Parker (BMU); Vera Scholz (German Society for International Cooperation – GIZ); Philipp Sommer (Environmental Action Germany); Max Thinius ( Futurologist); Charlotte von Möllendorff (NABU); Dr Ulf Lange (BMBF).

Thanks are also due to the panellists of the WBGU panel discussion on ‘Digitalization and sustainability – What kind of future do we want?’ (‘Digitalisierung und Nachhaltigkeit – Welche Zukunft wollen wir gestalten?’) on 20 June 2018: Markus Beckedahl (netzpolitik.org);

Joana Breidenbach (betterplace.org); Christian Kulick ( Bitkom); Prof Dr Judith Simon ( University of Hamburg).

Sascha Wolff and Susanne Mira chaired the World Café on ‘The Digitalized Anthropocene’ (‘Das digitalisi- erte Anthropozän’) on 20 June 2018, sharing reflec- tions and insights on digitalization with their guests:

Klaus Milke (Germanwatch); Prof Dr Sabine Trepte (University of Hohenheim, Department of Media Psychology); Prof Dr Katharina Zweig ( Technical University of Kaiserslautern, Algorithm Accountability Lab).

We would also like to thank the participants in the WBGU's Panel on ‘Digitalization as a lever for the vision of a sustainable EU’ (‘Digitalisierung als Hebel für die Vision einer nachhaltigen EU’), which was held

Acknowledgments

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VII ference of the network of European Environment and

Sustainable Development Advisory Councils (EEAC):

Dieter Janecek (MdB, German Bundestag); Dr Harry Lehmann (German Environment Agency – UBA); Max Thinius (Futurologist).

The colloquium ‘Fragility and autonomy of technical systems’ (‘Fragilität und Autonomie technischer Sys- teme’) held on 19 October 2018, organized by the WBGU together with INFRANEU, also provided valuable results and food for thought: Staatssekretär a.D.

Ulrich Arndt (INFRANEU-Hauptverband); Arslan Brömme (Vattenfall); Rudolf Gurland (T-Systems Inter- national, Telekom Security); Oliver Haase ( Berliner Stadtreinigung – BSR); Hermann Kühne (Berliner Was- serbetriebe – BWB); Friedrich- Wilhelm Menge ( Berliner Verkehrsbetriebe – BVG); Andrea Pieper (GASAG); Ingo Schwarzer ( Deutsche Bahn, DB Systel); Jens Wiesner (Federal Office for Information Security – BSI).

Furthermore, the WBGU wishes to thank all those who provided valuable support through discussions, comments contributions, advice, research, and peer reviews of individual parts of this report: Dipl.-Math.

Thilo Ernst, Dipl.-Ing. Karsten Isakovic, M. Sc. Fabian Kirstein, Dipl.-Inf. Nadja Menz, Prof Dr rer nat Adrian Paschke, Dipl.-Inf. Jaroslav Svacina, Dipl.-Ing. Jens Tiemann and Dipl.-Phys. Stephan Waßerroth (Fraun- hofer Institute for Open Communication Systems – FOKUS); Dr Benjamin Stephan (Greenpeace Germany);

Dr Mandy Singer-Brodowski ( Institut Futur); Adrian Heilmann, Dr Frank Hellmann, Claudia Köhler, Aylin Mengi, Julia Stanoeva and Amelie Thürmer ( Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research – PIK); Dr Daniel Voelsen ( German Institute for International and Security Affairs – SWP); Dr Diana Serbanescu and Dr Stefan Ullrich (Weizenbaum Institute for the Networked Society); Dr Holger Berg and Dr Henning Wilts ( Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy; Division ‘Circular Economy’).

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IX

Boxes

Box 1 Arenas of digital change . . . 14

Box 2.1-1 Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development . . . 32

Box 2.1.1-1 Ethics of technology and responsible computer science . . . 34

Box 2.1.1-2 Transcending humankind? Concepts of humankind in trans- and posthumanism . . . 36

Box 2.2.1-1 Planetary guardrails . . . 38

Box 2.2.2-1 Basic human capabilities . . . 39

Box 2.3-1 Human dignity in Germany’s Basic Law . . . 43

Box 2.3.2-1 Human beings as subjects and objects in the human sciences: tensions and educational potential . . . 44

Box 3.2.3-1 Uncomputable problems . . . 62

Box 3.2.5-1 Overview of current rules and regulations on the use of AI and algorithm-based systems . . . 64

Box 3.3-1 Humanization and misleading use of language . . . 70

Box 3.3.3-1 Turing test and ELIZA . . . 72

Box 3.3.3-2 Possible applications and limitations of AI and deep learning . . . 74

Box 3.3.4-1 Cryptography . . . 77

Box 3.3.5-1 Typology of the term ‘robot’ . . . 81

Box 3.3.5-2 Drones – robotics in the air. . . 82

Box 3.3.5-3 Bitcoin . . . 84

Box 3.6-1 Ten examples of reports on digitalization and sustainability published between 2016 and 2018 by international organizations . . . 97

Box 4.2.2-1 Economies of scale and network effects . . . 117

Box 4.2.2-2 Taxation of corporate profits and reform options . . . 122

Box 4.2.6-1 Unprecedented state measures: The German Network Enforcement Act and the French Act to Combat Manipulated Information on the Internet . . . 128

Box 4.2.6-2 China’s social credit system . . . 130

Box 4.2.6-3 The EU Basic Data Protection Regulation as the EU’s approach to shaping digitalization . . . 132

Box 4.2.7-1 The ICANN as a transnational player in internet governance . . . 134

Box 4.3.1-1 Institutionalize the tech communities’ sense of responsibility for sustainable development. . . 138

Box 4.3.3-1 Decision-making sovereignty in core societal areas . . . 140

Box 5.2.1-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘ Industrial metabolism’ . . . 149

Box 5.2.1-2 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Industrial metabolism’ . . . 150

Box 5.2.2-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘New forms of digital economy’ . . . 155

Box 5.2.2-2 Research recommendations for the arena ‘New forms of digital economy’ . . . 156

Box 5.2.3-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘ Digitalization of consumption and sustainable consumer behaviour’ . . . 158

Box 5.2.3-2 Research recommendations on the arena ‘ Digitalization of consumption and sustainable consumer behaviour’ . . . 159

Box 5.2.4-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘ Sustainability in online commerce’ . . . 166

Box 5.2.4-2 Research recommendations on the arena ‘ Sustainability in online commerce’ . . . 167

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Box 5.2.5-1 Obsolescence as a cause of the short lifespans of electrical appliances in the

Digital Age . . . 170 Box 5.2.5-2 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘ Electronic waste and the circular

economy’ . . . 172 Box 5.2.5-3 Research recommendations on the arena ‘ Electronic waste and the circular

economy’ . . . 173 Box 5.2.6-1 The conflicting priorities between ‘negative emissions’ and synthetic fuels . . . 176 Box 5.2.6-2 Recommendations for action for the arena ‘Digitalization for climate-change

mitigation and the energy transformation’ . . . 178 Box 5.2.6-3 Research recommendations for the arena ‘ Digitalization for climate-change

mitigation and the energy transformation’ . . . 179 Box 5.2.7-1 Excursus: the Indian Smart Cities Mission – example of the challenges in a

developing country . . . 182 Box 5.2.7-2 Excursus: The right to the city . . . 183 Box 5.2.7-3 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Smart city and sustainable urban

development’ . . . 184 Box 5.2.7-4 Research recommendations for the arena ‘Smart city and sustainable urban

development’ . . . 185 Box 5.2.8-1 London Congestion Charge . . . 188 Box 5.2.8-2 China’s digital mobility turnaround – a model (not only) for developing countries

and emerging economies? . . . 191 Box 5.2.8-3 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘ Sustainable urban mobility’ . . . 192 Box 5.2.8-4 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Sustainable urban mobility’ . . . 193 Box 5.2.9-1 Precision animal husbandry . . . 194 Box 5.2.9-2 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Precision agriculture’ . . . 196 Box 5.2.9-3 Research recommendations for the arena ‘Precision agriculture’ . . . 197 Box 5.2.10-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Agriculture in developing countries’ . . . 199 Box 5.2.10-2 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Agriculture in developing countries’ . . . 199 Box 5.2.11-1 Environmental crime and its prevention using digital technologies . . . 202 Box 5.2.11-2 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Monitoring ecosystems and

biodiversity’ . . . 204 Box 5.2.11-3 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Monitoring ecosystems and

biodiversity’ . . . 205 Box 5.3.1-1 Digitalization to enable virtual contact with nature – IPGarten: “your own

garden just a mouse click away” . . . 208 Box 5.3.1-2 Digitalization for citizen sensing . . . 209 Box 5.3.1-3 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Promotion of a collective global

awareness’ . . . 210 Box 5.3.1-4 Research recommendations for the arena ‘Promotion of a collective global

awareness’ . . . 210 Box 5.3.2-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Digitalization and public discourse’ . . . 216 Box 5.3.2-2 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Digitalization and public discourse’ . . . 217 Box 5.3.3-1 Definitions of scoring and distinctions between terms . . . 218 Box 5.3.3-2 Expansion of data availability and the data trade . . . 219 Box 5.3.3-3 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Scoring society’ . . . 221 Box 5.3.3-4 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Scoring society’ . . . 221 Box 5.3.4-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Future-proof education’ . . . 227 Box 5.3.4-2 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Future-proof education’ . . . 228 Box 5.3.5-1 Public-service platforms – approaches for a European and global digital

public sphere . . . 231 Box 5.3.5-2 Broadband coverage by international comparison – examples . . . 232 Box 5.3.5-3 Further development of public-service ICT in the EU: Next Generation Internet

programme . . . 232 Box 5.3.5-4 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Public-service ICT’ . . . 233

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XXI Box 5.3.5-5 Research recommendations on the arena ‘ Public-service ICT’ . . . 233

Box 5.3.6-1 Digital divides and online discrimination . . . 235 Box 5.3.6-2 Overcoming the binary understanding of biological and social gender as a

global challenge . . . 236 Box 5.3.6-3 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘ Digital technology as a gender bender?’ . . . 237 Box 5.3.6-4 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Digital technology as a gender bender?’ . . . 237 Box 5.3.7-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Digital self-tracking’ . . . 240 Box 5.3.7-2 Research recommendations on the arena ‘Digital self-tracking’ . . . 241 Box 5.3.8-1 Digital labour platforms . . . 246 Box 5.3.8-2 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘International division of labour’ . . . 247 Box 5.3.8-3 Research recommendations on the arena ‘International division of labour’ . . . 248 Box 5.3.9-1 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Sustainable working environments

of the future’ . . . 254 Box 5.3.9-2 Recommendations for research on the arena ‘Sustainable working environments

of the future’ . . . 255 Box 5.3.10-1 Licensing models . . . 258 Box 5.3.10-2 The digitized cultural heritage Europeana . . . 259 Box 5.3.10-3 Recommendations for action on the arena ‘Digital commons’ . . . 260 Box 5.3.10-4 Recommendations for research on the arena ‘Digital commons’ . . . 260 Box 7.3-1 Avoiding systemic risks in the Digital Age . . . 293 Box 7.3-2 Strengthen humaneness as a humanistic digital project . . . 294 Box 7.5-1 Education for future-proof societies . . . 302 Box 8.2.3-1 Current challenge of biodiversity policy: digital sequence information . . . 322 Box 8.4-1 The digital economy as a subject of global governance . . . 329 Box 9-1 Arenas of digital change . . . 344 Box 9.1-1 Recommendations on digitalization and sustainability in specialist literature . . . 348 Box 9.3.1-1 ‘Our Common Digital Future’ – A Draft Charter for a Sustainable Digital Age . . . 368 Box 9.3-1 Avoiding systemic risks in the Digital Age . . . 370 Box 10.3-1 WBGU analysis of research and recommen dations on artificial intelligence . . . 388 Box 10.3-2 Arenas of digital change . . . 390 Box 10.3.2-1 Real-world laboratories . . . 393

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Tables

Table 2.1.2-1 Typology of present-day humanisms . . . 36 Table 3.1.3-1 The ten largest companies in the world by market capitalization in 2009 and 2018. . . . 55 Table 3.6.2-1 Key policy levers to promote widespread digital benefits and inclusion . . . 100 Table 3.6.3-1 Overview of selected charters for the Digital Age . . . 102 Table 5.1-1 Connections between the 2030 Agenda's sustainability goals (SDGs) and the arenas

of digital change . . . 144 Table 5.2.2-1 Differentiation between sharing approaches according to their degree of

commercialization . . . 153 Table 5.2.7-1 Typical dimensions of smart-city concepts and their possible links to the SDGs . . . 181 Table 5.3.8-1 Estimates of the employment effects of automation in developing countries and

emerging economies . . . 245 Table 6.3-1 Synoptic comparison of utopian and dystopian visions of the future . . . 278 Table 8.2.1-1 The WBGU’s assessment of selected potential benefits and risks of digitalization in

achieving the UN’s sustainable development goals (SDGs) . . . 314 Table 10.2-1 Further development of the German research system to meet the challenges of

digital transformation in the Anthropocene . . . 380

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XXIII Figure 1-1 Overview of the topics covered in the flagship report . . . 28

Figure 2.3-1 Normative compass for the Great Transformation towards Sustainability in a

digitalized society . . . 42 Figure 3.1.3-1 Internet users as a percentage of the total population . . . 50 Figure 3.1.3-2 Development of the number of mobile phone contracts per 100 inhabitants . . . 51 Figure 3.1.3-3 Development of the percentages of households with internet access and computers

in industrialized countries and developing countries . . . 52 Figure 3.1.3-4 Number of transistors per CPU and technology node generation, memory costs

per gigabyte . . . 53 Figure 3.1.3-5 Comparison of (consumer) price developments . . . 53 Figure 3.1.3-6 ICT sector’s value-added as a percentage of total value-added in various OECD

countries . . . 54 Figure 3.2.1-1 Types of software-based systems . . . 57 Figure 3.2.1-2 The actors of a networked software-based system in the development and usage context . . . 58 Figure 3.2.1-3 Basic functions of digital systems in their temporal and future development . . . 59 Figure 3.2.1-4 Human-machine interaction . . . 60 Figure 3.2.5-1 Elements of an algorithm-based system . . . 63 Figure 3.3-1 The main current digital technologies that are changing the technical system . . . 66 Figure 3.3.3-1 Overview of the four core opportunities offered by AI, four corresponding risks,

and the opportunity cost of underusing AI . . . 75 Figure 3.4-1 Core characteristics of the Digital Age . . . 87 Figure 3.5-1 The key areas of civilization influenced by digitalization: the Earth system, the

economy, society, people and technology . . . 90 Figure 3.6.2-1 Access to mobile phones and the internet by population and by country . . . 98 Figure 3.6.2-2 Why digital dividends are not spreading rapidly – and what can be done . . . 99 Figure 4.1-1 Multi-level perspective on transformation processe . . . 111 Figure 4.1-2 Phases and core processes of transformative change . . . 112 Figure 4.2-1 Key actor groups in the Digital Age . . . 114 Figure 5.2.2-1 Disembedding mechanisms and their non-sustainable consequences . . . 151 Figure 5.2.3-1 Digitalized consumption and sustainable consumer behaviour . . . 157 Figure 5.2.4-1 Environmental effects of B2C online commerce . . . 165 Figure 5.2.11-1 Overview of digitally enhanced techniques for monitoring ecosystems and

biodiversity . . . 203 Figure 5.3.2-1 Inflation-adjusted advertising revenues of US newspapers since 1950 in US$

billions (print and online) . . . 211 Figure 5.3.2-2 Comparison of the processes of two types of media intermediaries . . . 212 Figure 5.3.3-1 Credit-score-based decision-making . . . 218 Figure 5.3.3-2 Schematic diagram showing the application of credit scores using information

that would not intuitively be associated with creditworthiness . . . 220 Figure 5.3.4-1 From Education for Sustainable Development and Digitalization . . . 225 Figure 7.1-1 Three Dynamics of the Digital Age . . . 284

Figures

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XXIV

Figure 7.2-1 Compliance with planetary guard rails and securing social cohesion . . . 290 Figure 8.3.1-1 Overview of data-protection laws worldwide . . . 323 Figure 8.4.1-1 Extended guiding principles for digitalization that is geared towards the global

common good. . . . 330 Figure 8.4.1-2 Moving towards hybrid forms of a sustainable digital economy . . . 331 Figure 9-1 Three Dynamics of the Digital Age . . . 342 Figure 10.2.1-1 Three pillars of Horizon Europe . . . 381 Figure 10.3-1 Growth in the number of publications on AI compared to computer science

and publications as a whole . . . 388 Figure 10.3-2 Number of scientific publications on AI . . . 389

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XXV acatech Deutsche Akademie der Technikwissenschaften

German National Academy of Science and Engineering ACM Association for Computing Machinery

ADM Algorithmic Decision Making AGI Artificial General Intelligence AI Artificial Intelligence

AIIB Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank APC Association for Progressive Communications

AR Augmented Reality

ASIC Application-Specific Integrated Circuit B2B Business-to-Business B2C Business-to-Consumer

BCI Brain Computer Interface

BECCS Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage BGBl Bundesgesetzblatt

BMBF Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung German Federal Ministry of Education and Research

BMU Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicherheit

German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety BMWi Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Energie

German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy BNE Bildung für nachhaltige Entwicklung

BRICS Association of five major emerging national economies:

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa

BSI Bundesamt für Sicherheit in der Informationstechnik German Federal Office for Information Security C2C Consumer-to-Consumer

CA Capability Approach

CAPS Collective Awareness Platforms for Sustainability and Collective Action (EU Project) CAVs Connected Autonomous Vehicles

CBD Convention on Biological Diversity CDP Carbon Disclosure Project

CFR Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union

CITES Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora

CO₂ Carbon dioxide

CPU Central Processing Unit

CRISPR Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats CSER Corporate Socio-Environmental Responsibility

DAC Direct Air Capture

DART 2020 Deutsche Antibiotika-Resistenzstrategie DC Development Cooperation

DNS Domain Name System

Acronyms and Abbreviations

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XXVI

DRM Digital Rights Management DSI Digital Sequence Information EBV Essential Biodiversity Variables ECOSOC Economic and Social Council (UN) EEG Electroencephalography

EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative EMAS Eco-Management and Audit Scheme

EOSC European Open Science Cloud (European Commission) EPOS European Public Open Spaces

EU European Union

FabLab Fabrication Laboratory

FAIR Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and thus Reusable (GO FAIR Initiative) FAO Food and Agriculture Organization (UN)

FIfF Forum InformatikerInnen für Frieden und gesellschaftliche Verantwortung Forum of Computer Scientists and IT Professionals for Peace and Social Responsibility FONA Rahmenprogramm Forschung für nachhaltige Entwicklung (BMBF)

Framework Programme ‘Research for Sustainable Development’

FSC Forest Stewardship Council

GAFAM Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and Microsoft GDPR General Data Protection Regulation (EU)

GEO BON Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Networks GG Grundgesetz

Basic Law for the Federal Republic of Germany GPU Graphics Processing Unit

HLPF High-level Political Forum (ECOSOC) HOCH^N Nachhaltigkeit an Hochschulen (BMBF) HTTP Hypertext Transfer Protocol

ICANN Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers ICT Information and Communications Technology

IDM Information Delivery Manual IDS Intrusion Detection System IEA International Energy Agency

IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers IGF Internet Governance Forum (UN)

INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contributions IoT Internet of Things

IPBES Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (UNEP, UNESCO, FAO and UNDP)

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (WMO, UNEP) IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency

ISO International Organization for Standardization ISSC International Social Science Council (UNESCO) IT Information Technology

ITU International Telecommunication Union LDCs Least Developed Countries

MaaS Mobility as a Service

NAZCA Non-state Actor Zone for Climate Action (UN) NDB New Development Bank (BRICS)

NetzDG Netzwerkdurchsetzungsgesetz German Network Enforcement Act NFC Near-Field Communication NGO Non-governmental Organization

NNMI National Network for Manufacturing Innovation

OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

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XXVII OER Open Educational Resources

OZG Onlinezugangsgesetz Online Access Act (Germany) PAN Personal Area Networks R&D Research and Development

REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (UNFCCC) RFID Radiofrequency Identification

RGGI Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (USA) RRI Responsible Research and Innovation SDGs Sustainable Development Goals (UN)

SHS Solar Home Systems

SMEs Small and Medium-sized Enterprises

STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics TCP/IP Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol UAS Unmanned Aerial System

UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicles UDP User Datagram Protocol

UN United Nations

UNCCD United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification UNCED United Nations Conference on Environment and Development UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNGIS United Nations Group on the Information Society

UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund VPN Virtual Private Network

VR Virtual Reality

W-LAN Wireless Local Area Network

WAN Wide Area Networks

WBGU Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen German Advisory Council on Global Change

WCMC World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP) WHO World Health Organization

WTO World Trade Organization

WSIS World Summit on the Information Society

WWW World Wide Web

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1

‘Digitalization’ is often described as a huge upheaval facing our societies to which we must adapt. The WBGU opposes this interpretation, saying that digitalization must be shaped in such a way that it can serve as a lever and support for the Great Transformation towards Sus- tainability, and can be synchronized with it. The WBGU understands digitalization broadly as the development and application of digital and digitalized technologies that augment and dovetail with all other technologies and methods. It has a profound effect on all economic, social and societal systems and is developing an ever greater transformative force. This in turn is increasingly having a fundamental impact on people, societies and the planet itself and must therefore be managed accordingly. Just as in 1987 the Brundtland Report entitled

‘Our Common Future’ outlined the concept of Sustain- able Development, the WBGU’s report entitled ‘Towards Our Common Digital Future’ sketches the concept of a digitalized sustainability society.

This report represents the greatest challenge the WBGU has taken on since it was founded in the Rio year 1992 – intellectually, politically and ethically. The WBGU is expanding the scope of its analysis beyond its core area of expertise, because the future fate of the planetary environment will depend massively on the progress of the digital revolution. The WBGU is getting involved in a societal discourse that is becoming increasingly hectic because it is about global innovation leadership in the 21st century. The WBGU is also trying to find answers to core questions – questions about the medium-term future, indeed even about the sheer sur- vival of the Anthropos on Earth. Sustainability transformation can only succeed if the digital upheavals can be successfully geared towards sustainability. Other- wise, digitalization threatens to act as a ‘fire accelerant’, exacerbating growth patterns that breach the planetary guard rails. Sustainability pioneers must seize the opportunities offered by digitalization and, at the same time, contain its risks. If those who are attempting to advance sustainability transformations ignore or neglect the dynamics of digitalization, the Great Trans- formation towards Sustainability will fall by the way-

side. The WBGU therefore advocates the continuation and acceleration of the Great Transformation by digital means. In addition, it is becoming clear that digitalization is going to change our societies so profoundly that our understanding of sustainability will also have to evolve in radical, new directions. The WBGU reveals possible directions for the next generation of sustainability paradigms and goes far beyond the perspectives of the 2030 Agenda.

Putting such an epochal watershed in the history of humankind into perspective, while at the same time providing practical advice for policy-makers, is ambi- tious and fraught with tension. Yet even if some assess- ments of these fundamental changes should be mis- taken, this can still be useful in throwing some light on the paths that should now be quickly pursued by more knowledgeable people.

In a sense this is a warning: this WBGU report attempts to take a holistic approach to digitalization in the context of the sustainable development of our civili- zation, which is under threat from many sides – an approach that has been missing up to now. Such a huge aspiration can only be realized – if at all – with weak- nesses, generalizations and omissions. This report should be read accordingly.

However, in order to facilitate a favourable and pro- ductive reception, the structure of this WBGU report also deviates from the norm: this time, the actual summary is preceded by a narrative essay, which attempts not only to sketch out the report’s train of thought, but also to indicate the immense thematic landscape, which, in addition to balmy lowlands and emerging new realms of possibility for sustainability reforms, also includes some deep abysses. On this terrain, the narrative deals with the digital possibilities for, and risks to, preserving what evolution had yielded until the Earth’s entry into the Anthropocene period, and with the conceivable creation of new digital entities or even the possible substitution of human intelligence by machine intelligence. This is followed by a summary of the report’s key messages, the individual chapters and recommendations for action and research.

Towards Our Common Digital Future

Towards Our Common Digital Future

Flagship Report

Towards Our Common

Digital Future

The Council Members

Prof Dirk Messner (Chair)

Prof Sabine Schlacke (Chair)

Prof Martina Fromhold-Eisebith

Prof Ulrike Grote

Prof Ellen Matthies

Prof Karen Pittel

Prof Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE

Prof Ina Schieferdecker

Prof Uwe Schneidewind

Towards Our Common

Digital Future

Council Staff

Acknowledgments

Contents

Boxes

Tables

Figures

Acronyms and Abbreviations

Summary