www.helmholtz.de
#Oceans4Future?
The ocean in the Global Carbon Budget
Judith Hauck
Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung
All CO2 emissions since 1958 in the atmosphere
AtmosphericCO2concentration
Atmosphere Emissions
Data: LeQuéré et al., 2018
524 ppm
Where has the carbon gone?
AtmosphericCO2concentration
Atmosphere Emissions
Data: LeQuéré et al., 2018
524 ppm
409 ppm
Charles Keeling
The Keeling curve
By National Science Foundation, Public Domain,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=20025052
Where has the carbon gone?
AtmosphericCO2concentration
Ocean
Atmosphere Emissions
Data: LeQuéré et al., 2018
524 ppm
409 ppm
~50 ppm
Where has the carbon gone?
AtmosphericCO2concentration
524 ppm 409 ppm
~50 ppm
~60 ppm
Ocean
Atmosphere Emissions
Land
Data: LeQuéré et al., 2018
www.helmholtz.de
Ocean
Land
Atmosphere
Carbon reservoirs
Anthropogenic carbon flows
425 190 190 150
+
250Fluxes GtC yr -1
Cumulative changes during 1870–2017
Data: LeQuéré et al., 2018, budget imbalance: 25
Anthropogenic carbon flows
425 190 190 150
+
250Fluxes GtC yr -1
Cumulative changes during 1870–2017
Data: LeQuéré et al., 2018, budget imbalance: 25
future?
How do we know?
Global Carbon Budget
Annual updates of the CO
2emissions, and CO
2fluxes between ocean, land and
atmosphere
LeQuéré et al., 2018
models
multi-model mean
LeQuéré et al., 2018
How much CO
2goes into the
ocean each
year
models
multi-model mean
LeQuéré et al., 2018
Climate change effects in the Southern Ocean
How much CO
2goes into the
ocean each
year
models
multi-model mean
LeQuéré et al., 2018
How much CO
2goes into the
ocean each
year Ocean models
Including: REcoM
models
multi-model mean
LeQuéré et al., 2018
How much CO
2goes into the
ocean each year
observation-derived estimates
Surface ocean pCO2 measurements in 2017
Revolution in ocean temperature observations
Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung
4.10.19
Robotic carbon observation systems?
Robotic carbon observation systems?
Financed by:
USA
Germany Norway China Australia Europe
Generated by jcommops.org
The ocean carbon cycle community is longing for an integrated ocean carbon observing network
+
Higher uncertainty
Access to remote areas
High-quality Data gaps
+ - +
-
Carbon dioxide removal
“Most 1.5°C and 2°C pathways are heavily reliant on CDR [carbon dioxide removal] at a speculatively large scale
before mid-century.”
IPCC 1.5°C Report
Carbon dioxide removal
“Most 1.5°C and 2°C pathways are heavily reliant on CDR [carbon dioxide removal] at a speculatively large scale
before mid-century.”
“ … substantial uncertainty about the adverse effects ...”
IPCC 1.5°C Report
Carbon dioxide removal
Enhanced weathering / ocean alkalinization
Carbon dioxide removal
Hauck et al., 2016; Köhler et al., 2013
Scale:
Large-scale mining
activities for silicate rocks would be necessary
Risks and side-effects:
Unknown
An integrated ocean carbon observing network is needed
