Integrated assessment of air pollution and greenhouse gases mitigation in Europe

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Integrated assessment of air pollution and greenhouse gases mitigation in Europe

Article in Archiwum Ochrony Srodowiska · January 2010

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Janusz Cofala

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Available from: Fabian Wagner Retrieved on: 22 July 2016

Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution and Greenhouse Gases Mitigation in Europe

J. Cofala, M. Amann, W. Asman, I. Bertok, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, and F. Wagner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

Content

• European air pollution policy process – past and present

• Methodology of integrated assessment modeling

• Simulations for the revision of the NEC Directive

• Further steps – link to climate policies

Air pollution policy in Europe - past

• UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (1979)

– SO₂ protocols 1985, 1994 – NO_x protocol 1988

– VOC protocol 1991

– Protocols on heavy metals and POPs 1998

– Gothenburg Protocol (acid., eutroph. and ozone) 1999

• EU Legislation

– Air Quality Directives (1980 - 1998)

– Technology-related Directives (LCP, IPPC, solvents, Auto- Oil, etc.)

– National Emission Ceilings Directive (2001)

Policy process - recent

2003: Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) Programme established 2005: EU Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP) proposed 2007: Review of the NEC Directive based on targets from TSAP 2007: GHG reduction (burden sharing agreement)

2008: Review of the Gothenburg Protocol to CLRTAP

The RAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework

PM SO₂ NO_x VOC NH₃

Health impacts:

PM √ √ √ √ √

O₃ √ √

Vegetation damage:

O₃ √ √

Acidification √ √ √

Eutrophication √ √

Air pollution and greenhouse gases

Critical linkages

• Emission originate from the same sources

• Aerosols/small particles cause health impacts and influence radiative forcing

• Tropospheric ozone damages health and vegetation and causes radiative forcing

The RAINS multi-pollutant/multi-effect framework extended to GHGs (GAINS)

PM SO₂ NO_x VOC NH₃ CO₂ CH₄ N₂O

CFCs HFCs SF₆ Health impacts:

PM √

- via aerosols √ √ √ √ √

√ √ √ √

O₃ √ √ √

Vegetation damage:

O3 √ √ √

Acidification √ √ √

Eutrophication √ √

Radiative forcing:

- direct √ √ √ √

- via OH √ √ √

Economic synergies between emission controls

Multiple benefits

PM SO₂ NO_x VOC NH₃ CO₂ CH₄ N₂O

CFCs HFCs SF₆ Health impacts:

PM √

- via aerosols √ √ √ √ √

√ √ √ √

O₃ √ √ √

Vegetation damage:

O₃ √ √ √

Acidification √ √ √

Eutrophication √ √

Radiative forcing:

- direct √ √ √ √

- via OH √ √ √

Multi-pollutant/multi-effect analysis

for identifying cost-effective policy scenarios

SO₂ NH₃ NO_x VOC PM

Health Eutrophication Acidification Ozone

CAFE policy targets for 2020 IIASA’s RAINS

computer model

The GAINS approach

for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies (GHG-Air pollution INteractions and Synergies )

SO₂ NH₃ NO_x VOC PM

Health Eutrophication Acidification Ozone

Policy targets on air quality IIASA’s GAINS

optimization model

GHGs

Policy target on

GHG emissions

Uniform or effect-based scenarios?

REF G5/3

G5/2

G5/1

UNIFORM PER CAPITA

EMISSIONS

UNIFORM

% REDUCTION

0 5 10 15 20

200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600

Population exposure index (million persons.ppm.hours)

Costs above REF (Billion EURO/yr)

Air pollutant emissions as a function of GHG mitigation (EU-15)

20 EUR/t CO₂

50 EUR/t CO₂

30 EUR/t CO₂

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

80% 82% 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 94% 96% 98% 100%

GHG emissions relative to benchmark

Air pollutant emissions relative to benchmark

SO2 NOx PM2.5

Targets from the EU Thematic Strategy on AP

Unit of the indicator Percentage improvement compared to the situation in 2000

Life years lost from particulate matter (YOLLs) Years of life lost 47 %

Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification

km² 74 %

Area of freshwater ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification

km² 39 %

Ecosystems area where nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication

km² 43 %

Premature mortality from ozone Number of cases 10 %

Area of forest ecosystems where ozone concentrations exceed the critical levels for ozone¹⁾

km² 15 %

Air pollution effects in 2000

PM Eutrophication Ozone

Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat.

Air pollution effects for TSAP targets 2020

PM Eutrophication Ozone

Acid, forests Acid, lakes Acid, semi-nat.

Optimized NO

emissions - reduction from 2000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-27 Croatia Turkey Norway Switzerland

% of emissions in 2000

National projections Coherent scenario

Optimized PM2.5 emissions – reduction from 2000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Rep. Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden UK EU-27 Croatia Turkey Norway Switzerland

% of emissions in 2000

National projections Coherent scenario

Costs of achieving environmental objectives

0 3 6 9 12

National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario National projections Coherent scenario

Health impacts from PM

Acidification Eutrophication Ground-level ozone Combined optimization

Billion €/yr

SO2 NOX PM NH3 VOC

Scope for further CH

reductions from agriculture

GAINS cost curve – an example

-50 50 150 250

145 150 155 160 165 170 175 180

CH4 emissions (Mt CO2-eq)

Euro/t CO2-eq

NMS-10:

Diet changes dairy cows Farm-scale

Anerobic Digesters Cattle diet:

Propionate precursors EU-15:

Diet changes cattle

Housing adaptation pigs

Conclusions

Integrated assessment models:

• Enable designing air pollution control policies and explore linkages with mitigation of greenhouse gases

• Help to explore a wide range scenarios and targets

• Assess co-benefits and synergies of combined policies and look for cost-optimal solutions

• Are widely used in all-European context

• Are also useful for national analysis (RAINS Netherlands, RAINS Italy)

• Work on integrated assessment framework for Poland needed

More information:

www.iiasa.ac.at/rains