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= (80.90 − 49.81) − (49.81 − 22.44)

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− 1.70

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50.40 − 1.70 = 1.29 − 1.70 = −.41

(2)

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í h YZY;Y¬[]^`_bacedgf"ceXih"jcedkflnmHoUceX8h

yr

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−→

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−→

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wq%-rGáp

vXâLxgy~

q

ãAä

xgyú0r8~`x

ÛySw!xgq xgwqxgyNrySw r

ä

s!xgqMæQrySw r

ä

s!xç

Z-Ø[_

æ

ú0r8~`x

ÛySw!xgqrG[(vexç

õ

^-i ê

«§¯¡" «ngm !h"dÑc§f"ceXÇû l,Dc§mS*®8¡cedSce"

fGëì Øí

è

füîEì í ìðã7f Y2ñGò j [_ ðý¼k4^-i

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(9)

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;Sg"¡"dg«njc¤jce"dSgce acedgf"ceX²8a«njceflnmW`f"cl, ¨mSgcedNþ8kccedgceX"êLceuX(c ced{lnf"c¤fl,dgmSgce c§mSS¨b¨0gc

= j;aceg8"X"DceX¢D«nXif"ced ced{lnf"ceXi;nX"XceXi¢DcedSgce "X"DmS¨ Ö,¥{(l,d{l,8gcedSmScedSHacedgf"ceX

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x _(i)

DceDceXUfc Sc§«ndgceSmg{ceXk(l,X;S c

F ⁻¹ µ i

n + 1

¶

, i = 1, . . . , n

l,!DceSd{l,DceX ±ceX"X

F

ceXcJcedSgce "X"DmÑ!"X"8S«nX ¨bu

F (x) = G ¡ _x ₋ _µ

σ

¢

X _(i) ≈ F ⁻¹ µ i

n + 1

¶

= σ G ⁻¹ µ i

n + 1

¶ + µ .

W*Xf"ced|àVd{l¯m¥acedgf"ceXªfcþà l,d{l,¨ cegced

µ

^"Xf

σ

f"dg{¦fc±8g$Ö,S§"X"DceX

x

^"Xf

s

cedgmgceS§ce¨

7àV «nka dgficeXc§mHf"cedoà ll,dgc

µ

x _(i) , F ⁻¹ µ i

n + 1

¶¶

«;f"ced

µ

x _(i) , G ⁻¹ µ i

n + 1

¶¶

G = Φ ≡ N (0, 1)

²j"§a

F ≡ N (x, s ² )

W*XUYZY;Y\[]J^`_b c!cedSkflnmkoUceX;h

yr

|xgq

−→

¨b4ûc§mSS¢DcedSgce "X" Ûy¤Ü¥rs-,xgy~`xgws

q

"XfjceX8"Scedgf"c°X"cedggced¤d{l,¡"";ceX0Ì

mSgce "X"b!h"dHZ-Ø[_

«n DceXf"ceX[àV «n£lnm f"ce"S {ÖDce8dSh"¨b¨gcbomSgcedf"c§m¦Ì¦ÌàV «ngmacemSl,ceXc = j8ace{;"X"i¢D«nX

N (49.52, (18.94) ²

(10)

¸ ' »

¿J.*'%M

¹ %

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;Sg"¡"dg«njceX¢D«n¨k¨ -l,X"

n = 60

cedSce"

•

N (0, 1)

^{þ!mS®8¨b¨} ceSdSmggê

•

U (−1.7, 1.7)

^{þ!mS®8¨b¨} ceSdSmgg²";ceXcNû l, mPê

•

£¤c¤«n DceXf"c û l,jce c0ceX;S$Ö, kceX"Dc0ceX"X"dgnDceXUf"ced¤8Sg"¡"dg«njceX

LcedSgce "X"

x ₍₁₎ x ₍₆₀₎ x s g 1 g 2

2 '

2ÿ

Ì{

-l2ÿ # 22ÿ

Ì{

-'GÍ

'ø

;Sf"ceX8H?þ ê Ì ' 'GÍ l ²'2 #'2ÿ ÿ2ÿ # ø2ø-'

¤ ceg#þÌ # Í # Í ê Ì # 2ÿ # GÍ ##Â # 2 Ì{#l# Ì # '2ø

l,¨b¨©lÇþ

²' ê Ì #

-l '

#

2 2ÿ

ÿ#X

Í 2

l22ø

= j"j" f"X ÿ0> «¯¡" «ngmHf"ced JcedSgce "X"DceX

(11)

!#"$"$%&(')$*$+-,./102024365 798:;&<$&(5 =>6'$?@7ACBD?@79=?@%&)$*$+E?@*F

g q 1 = (q 0 . 95 − q 0 . 50 ) − (q 0 . 50 − q 0 . 05 ) q 0 . 95 − q 0 . 50

−→

−→