2005 2030 - No new policies 0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
1
ALRI, Children < 5
COPD, Women > 30 COPD, Men > 30
Heart Disease, Adults > 30
Potential lives saved
Deaths in Millions
Fig 5: Premature deaths attributable to solid fule use in homes
0 200 400 600 800
0.0 0.3
0.6 0.9
1.2
Cumulative costs of policies for cooking between 2010-2030 in billion 2005 US$
Population without access to modern fuels in 2030 in billions
No New Policy
fuel price support 25%
fuel price support 50%
fuel price support 75%
gaining access
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Asia
Pacific Asia No credit access
credit access at 30%
credit access at 15%
Fig 4: Relative cost-effectiveness of fuel price support (FPS) policies and microcredit
schemes for stove prchases
Urban/Rural Population
Households
Demand for energy goods
Fuel Preferences (energy goods only) Urban/Rural
GDP
Microfinance Income
Distribution
Household Survey Data
Inconvenience Cost
External data /
assumptions Demand
Discount Rates
Policies
Fuel Price Support Fuel Prices
Production Energy Sector
Appliance Cost
Carbon Price
Consumer Fuel Prices
Electrification
Fig 3: Schematic overview of the MESSAGE-Access Model
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 U1 U2 U3 U4 U5
Rural Urban
Residential Final Energy [MJ/cap-yr]- Electricity
LPG Kerosene Charcoal Firewood
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000
R0 R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 U1 U2 U3 U4 U5
Rural Urban
Residential Final Energy [MJ/cap-yr] Electricity
LPG Kerosene Charcoal Firewood
Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia
Fig 2: Household energy use patterns across rural and urban expenditure quintiles in 2005
Number of people without access to electricity per km2
Number of people using solid fuel for cooking per km2
0-50 >250
0 50-250
>700 450-700 120-450 0-120
Uninhabited area and area with access to modern energy
Fig 1: Current global distribution of population without access to electricity and modern cooking fules + stoves in homes
We estimate that universal access to modern cooking stoves and fuels and complete rural electrification by 2030 is achievable in South and Pacific Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa if additional investments of USD2005 62 billion are made annually (~ 5% of
global energy sector investments today).
Dedicated policies and targets will be
needed to achieve these goals. Universal access to modern cooking stoves and
fuels can most effectively be achieved only when policies that lower modern fuel costs (e.g. subsidies on LPG) are
implemented in combination with poli- cies that lower modern stove costs
(either through cheaper credit from mi- crofinance institutions or grants for stove purchases).
The successful implementation of such policies can result in multiple benefits.
The most important of these are im-
provements in human health. About 1.5 million lives could be saved in 2030, if all households gain access to modern fuels and stoves.
Household demand for electricity and modern cooking fuels will rise due to im-
proved access to these energy carriers, but total household final energy use could decrease because of large efficiency gains of transitioning away from the current in- efficient use of traditional solid fuels and kerosene/paraffin. The total greenhouse gas emissions impacts are thus also, likely to be negligible.
• Ambitious targets and dedicated policies are vital to achieving universal modern energy access goals by 2030.
• Additional investments of USD2005 62 billion per year are required till 2030, necessi- tating extra financing from governments, the international community and private sector.
• Technological options and program design need to be context specific, locally ac- cepted and integrated with wider developmental and poverty alleviation efforts.
• Significant capacity building is required to support deployment of new technologies in remote rural regions and provide innovative financing mechanisms to make these technologies affordable at a commercial scale.
• Tying income generation policies to energy access policies is desirable to raise living standards and improve the viability of such efforts in the longer term.
• About 20% of earth’s population is unelectrified. Another, almost equivalent number has irregular and unreliable access to electricity.
• Over 40% of global population depends on traditional solid fuels (unprocessed biomass – firewood, crop and animal residues – or coal and charcoal) for cooking and heating.
• A lack of access to modern energy has negative consequences for human health, well-being, and productivity. It also contributes to damages to the local and global environment.
• Without additional new policies and targets, we estimate by 2030:
o The number of people dependent on solid fuels may rise from current levels due to population growth;
o About 800 million people in rural South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will stay unelectrified.
Results – Costs Significant, But Potential Benefits Multiple
Challenges
We started with a bottom-up assessment of existing energy demands, choices,
access, income levels and ability to pay of diverse household groups, distinguishing between rural and urban regions and five or more expenditure quintiles or classes.
We focused on those regions where the existing access gap is the largest.
Using IIASA projections of urbanization, income growth and population growth, we then estimated how household energy demands were likely to develop over the
next two decades.
These data inputs and projections were used to calibrate a dynamic linear optimiza- tion model – MESSAGE-Access to assess the likely impacts of alternative policy sce- narios for achieving access goals by 2030.
Analysis - Methods & Model
Conclusions and Policy Implications
For Further Details Refer to:
Riahi, K. et al., 2012: Chapter 17 - Energy Pathways for Sustainable Development. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Ap- plied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1203-1306.
Pachauri, S. et al., 2012: Chapter 19 - Energy Access for Development. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA and the International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1401-1458.
