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Risk and Uncertainty in the Design of Sustainability Policies

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Risks and Uncertainties in Sustainable Development Policies

IIASA 40

th

Anniversary Conference 26 October 2012

Nadejda Komendantova

Risk, Policy and Vulnerability Program

(2)

Source: Desertec Foundation, 2009

(3)

Source: Blumberg New Energy Finance, 2012

Foreign Direct Investment into Renewable Energy Sources

(4)

Komendantova et al., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2011

(5)

Komendantova et al., Energy Policy, 2012

Risks for FDI into renewable energy sources in North Africa

(6)

Komendantova et al., Energy Policy, 2010

Types of Regulatory Risk

(7)

Source: World Bank Group, 2012

Morocco Algeria Tunisia Egypt Ease of Doing Business before and after the Arab Spring

(8)

Conclusions

• Risk matters for MENA and renewable energy investment, which is important globally and regionally.

• What we have seen here is part of a

larger pattern of the importance of risk

for sustainable development.

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