NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR
PLANNING FOR PLANNING--COAL:
ISSUES FOR THE EIGHTIES
R e p o r t o f a n IIASA Task F o r c e M e e t i n g November 24-27, 1980
W. Hancock M. S a d n i c k i
R. T o m l i n s o n
F e b r u a r y 1983 CP-83-12
C o Z Z a b o r a t i v e Papers r e p o r t work which h a s n o t been p e r f o r m e d s o l e l y a t t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s and which h a s r e c e i v e d o n l y
l i m i t e d r e v i e w . V i e w s o r o p i n i o n s e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t t h o s e o f t h e I n s t i t u t e , i t s N a t i o n a l Member O r g a n i z a t i o n s , o r o t h e r o r g a n i - z a t i o n s s u p p o r t i n g t h e work.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a
PREFACE
T h i s c o l l a b o r a t i v e p a p e r i s b a s e d on a m e e t i n g h e l d a t IIASA i n November 1980. The m e e t i n g was p a r t o f a s e q u e n c e o f d i s c u s - s i o n s a r r a n g e d by IIASA i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e P o l i s h Academy o f S c i e n c e s a n d t h e P o l i s h Mining I n d u s t r y . A p r e v i o u s m e e t i n g had b e e n h e l d a t S z c z y r k , P o l a n d i n November 1979, and t h e p r o c e e d -
i n g s a r e a v a i l a b l e a s IIASA W o r k i n g / C o l l a b o r a t i v e P a p e r s , WP-80-140, CP-80-23, a n d CP-80-24. These c o a l i n d u s t r y m e e t i n g s were p a r t o f a r e s e a r c h program a t IIASA u n d e r t h e g e n e r i c t i t l e " I s s u e s f o r t h e E i g h t i e s " i n which s y s t e m s a n a l y s t s and managers from a g i v e n i n d u s t r y m e t t o e x c h a n g e i d e a s and i n f o r m a t i o n , a s w e l l a s t o ex- p l o r e and d e v e l o p a s t r a t e g y o f u s i n g s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s , r a t h e r t h a n u s i n g i t m e r e l y a s a t o o l t o b e b r o u g h t i n f o r c e r t a i n w e l l - d e f i n e d p r o b l e m s .
The s u b j e c t ' P l a n n i n g f o r P l a n n i n g ' was u s e d a s a s h o r t h a n d t o e x p l o r e t h e u s e o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s i n t h e p l a n n i n g o f new c a p a c i t y f o r d e e p m i n i n g i n h a r d c o a l . The d i s c u s s i o n s were a t t e n d e d by 17 r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s f o r 7 c o u n t r i e s , and 1 3 p a p e r s were p r e s e n t e d o r t a b l e d a t t h e m e e t i n g . These a r e r e p r o d u c e d
s e p a r a t e l y a s IIASA C o l l a b o r a t i v e P a p e r CP-82-80.
T h i s p a p e r , which summarizes t h e d i s c u s s i o n , s t r u c t u r e s t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s and d i s c u s s e s t h e p l a c e o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s w i t h - i n i t . I t a l s o p r e s e n t s a s t a t e - o f - t h e - a r t a c c o u n t o f t h e u s e s o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s f o r m a j o r i n v e s t m e n t p l a n n i n g i n t h e c o a l i n d u s t r y , and i n d i c a t e s a r e a s f o r f u t u r e r e s e a r c h . The summaries have been p r e p a r e d i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h B i l l Hancock and Mike
S a d n i c k i o f t h e O p e r a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h E x e c u t i v e , N a t i o n a l C o a l B o a r d , UK.
J a n u a r y 1983
R o l f e Tomlinson Chairman
Management and Technology Area ( 1 977-1980)
CONTENTS
CHAPTER I--INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER II--RESERVES ASSESSMENT 1 . INTRODUCTION
2. THE ESTIMATION FROM GIVEN EXPLORATION 3. DESIGN OF EXPLORATION
4. THE CALCULATION OF RESERVES 5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES
CHAPTER III--MINING METHODS: EVALUATION 1
.
INTRODUCTION2. PROBLEM AREAS
3. SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED 3.1 Descriptive Models
3.2 Simulation Models
3.3 Operational Gaming--Hand Simulation 3.4 Optimization
4 . COMBINING PROBLEM AREAS
4 . 1 T h e N e c e s s i t y t o C o m b i n e
4 . 2 A c h i e v e m e n t s of S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s 5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
CHAPTER IV--COMPARI SON O F A L T E R N A T I V E T E C H N O L O G I E S ( I n p a r t i c u l a r NEW T E C H N O L O G I E S )
1 . INTRODUCTION
2 . ENGINEERING/TECHNOLOGICAL A S S E S S M E N T 3. SYSTEM C O M P A T I B I L I T Y ASSESSMENT
4 . ECONOMIC A S S E S S M E N T 4 . 1 S i m u l a t i o n
4 . 2 G e n e r a l E c o n o m i c A p p r a i s a l 4 . 3 T h e P r o b l e m s of U n c e r t a i n t y 5. GROWTH RATE ASSESSMENT
6 . SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES
CHAPTER V - - F I N D I N G T H E B E S T M I N I N G S O L U T I O N ( T a k i n g U n c e r t a i n t y I n t o A c c o u n t ) I N T R O D U C T I O N
2 . NATIONAL APPROACHES 2 . 1 FRG
2 . 2 P o l a n d 2 . 3 UK 2 . 4 U S S R
3. D I F F I C U L T I E S ENCOUNTERED 3 . 1 I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s 3 . 2 U n c e r t a i n t y
3 . 3 D e c i s i o n C r i t e r i a : E l i m i n a t i o n of A l t e r n a t i v e s ( V a r i a n t s )
4 . SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES
CHAPTER VI--ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND T H E I R R E L A T I O N S H I P TO THE BEST MINING SOLUTION
1
.
INTRODUCTION2 . I N D I V I D U A L ENVIRONMENTAL I S S U E S
3 . THE IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT AS A WHOLE AND I T S
R E L A T I O N S H I P TO ECONOMIC B E N E F I T S 4 . SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
CHAPTER VII--SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS RESERVES ASSESSMENT
MINING METHODS : EVALUATION
COMPARISON O F ALTERNATIVE TECHNOLOGIES F I N D I N G THE BEST MINING SOLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS AND T H E I R R E L A T I O N S H I P TO THE BEST MINING SOLUTION
REFERENCES AND L I S T OF PAPERS PRESENTED
A P P E N D I C E S : A - - T e n t a t i v e A g e n d a B - - L i s t o f P a r t i c i p a n t s
NB: R e f e r e n c e s w i t h o u t a p r e c e d i n g l e t t e r , e . g . , [ 2 1 r e f e r t o
-
a paper g i v e n a t t h e T a s k F o r c e Meeting and a r e l i s t e d a t t h e end of t h e p a p e r . R e f e r e n c e s w i t h p r e c e d i n g l e t t e r s , e . g . , ( B 3 , D 5 , e t c . ) are g i v e n a t t h e e n d of t h a t respec- t i v e c h a p t e r .CHAPTER I-- I N T R O D U C T I O N
T h i s i s a p a p e r a b o u t p l a n n i n g i n t h e c o a l i n d u s t r y . P l a n - n i n g i s a word which may b e g i v e n a v a r i e t y o f i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s - - e v e n w i t h i n a s i n g l e c u l t u r e . I t may r e f e r t o t h e d e t a i l e d a n a l y - s i s o f an i n v e s t m e n t p r o p o s a l , a n o p e r a t i n g p l a n f o r a c o l l i e r y , a f i n a n c i a l p l a n o r b u d g e t f o r a g r o u p o f c o l l i e r i e s , o r a g r a n d s t r a t e g y f o r t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f o v e r a l l p o l i c y . P l a n n i n g i s b o t h a r o u t i n e a c t i v i t y - - u n d e r t a k e n a c c o r d i n g t o p r e d e t e r m i n e 2 r u l e s a n d t i m e s c h e d u l e s - - a n d a d i s c r e t i o n a r y a c t i v i t y , r e l y i n g o n t h e i n t u i t i o n a n d a c q u i r e d s k i l l o f t h e e x p e r t . A l l b u t t h e most e l e m e n t a r y o r g a n i z a t i o n a l a c t i v i t i e s h a v e t o b e p l a n n e d - - f o r t h e c o o r d i n a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l e f f o r t , t h e making a v a i l a b l e o f n e c e s s a r y r e s o u r c e s , t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a common a i m - - a l l o f
them n e c e s s a r y f o r a s u c c e s s f u l and economic outcome--have t o b e t h o u g h t o f a h e a d , a s s u m p t i o n s a n a l y z e d , s c h e d u l e s p r e p a r e d , c h e c k s on p r o g r e s s s e t down, e x p e r t s c o o r d i n a t e d . I n f a c t , t h e p l a n n i n g o f a n y m a j o r p r o j e c t o r e n t e r p r i s e i s i t s e l f a n e x t r e m e l y complex p r o g r e s s w h i c h , by d e f i n i t i o n , r e q u i r e s p l a n n i n g , i . e . , t h e p l a n - n i n g must i t s e l f b e p l a n n e d . Hence o u r t i t l e .
More p a r t i c u l a r l y s t i l l , t h i s i s a p a p e r a b o u t t h e u s e o f s y s - t e m s a n a l y s i s i n p l a n n i n g . Systems a n a l y s i s i s a way o f s t u d y i n g complex s i t u a t i o n s , which i s i n t e r d i s c i p l i n a r y , a p p l i e d and i n t e - g r a t i v e . I t s e t s o u t t o d e f i n e a i m s , e v a l u a t e a l t e r n a t i v e s , e x p l o r e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . I t i s t h u s h a r d l y s u r p r i s i n g t h a t i t
a p p e a r s a s a a d j u n c t t o p l a n n i n g more o f t e n t h a n a l m o s t any o t h e r human a c t i v i t y . I n d e e d , i n t h e c o a l i n d u s t r y , s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s i s u s e d i n a l m o s t e v e r y a s p e c t d f p l a n n i n g - - a s t h i s p a p e r w i l l r e v e a l . But t h e main t h e s i s o f t h i s p a p e r , b a s e d on e x p e r i e n c e , i s t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s and p l a n n i n g must go d e e p e r t h a n t h i s . I f p l a n n i n g must b e p l a n n e d , t h e n s y s -
t e m s a n a l y s i s h a s a m a j o r p a r t t o p l a y i n t h a t p l a n n i n g . F u r t h e r - more t h e u s e o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s - - a complex human a c t i v i t y - - n e e d s t o b e p l a n n e d a s p a r t o f t h e p l a n n i n g f o r p l a n n i n g . T h e s e s t a t e - ments a r e n o t , o f c o u r s e , t r u e o n l y f o r t h e c o a l i n d u s t r y t h e y
a p p l y t o a l l i n d u s t r i e s which engage i n e x t e n s i v e p l a n n i n g . I n - deed IIASA h a s a l r e a d y done work t o show t h e v a l u e o f t h e c o n c e p t i n t h e f o r e s t and f o r e s t p r o d u c t s i n d u s t r y , and o t h e r s c o u l d b e c i t e d . The l e s s o n s s e t o u t h e r e a r e w i d e l y a p p l i c a b l e .
The p a r t i c u l a r a s p e c t o f c o a l i n d u s t r y p l a n n i n g t h a t w e c o v e r i n t h i s p a p e r i s t h e p l a n n i n g o f new d e e p mine c a p a c i t y f o r c o a l p r o d u c t i o n . The p a p e r i s , i n p a r t , a s t a t e m e n t o f t h e s t a t e o f t h e a r t s o f a r a s t h e u s e o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s and o p e r a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h i n t h e deep c o a l mining i n d u s t r y i s c o n c e r n e d . A s impor- t a n t l y , however, i t s t r u c t u r e s t h e o v e r a l l problem and p o i n t s t h e way ahead a s a g u i d e f o r t h e f u t u r e .
The c o n c e p t o f f o r w a r d p l a n n i n g i s n o t o n e t h a t h a s r e c e n t l y been imposed on t h e i n d u s t r y - - i t h a s . l o n g been d e e p l y embedded i n t h e t h i n k i n g o f t h e c o a l mining i n d u s t r y . F o r t h i s , t h e r e i s one o v e r - r i d i n g r e a s o n - - t h a t i t i s a n e x t r a c t i v e i n d u s t r y . I t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o c o n t i n u e p r o d u c i n g t h e same p r o d u c t from t h e same p l a c e w i t h t h e same m a c h i n e s , y e a r i n - - y e a r o u t . Once c o a l i s e x t r a c t e d , i t i s gone. Every s u c c e s s i v e day o n e i s mining a d i f - f e r e n t p i e c e o f c o a l w i t h s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s from what went b e f o r e . I n t h r e e months t i m e , t h e c o a l f a c e may have h i t a f a u l t o r t h e t h i c k n e s s o f t h e seam h a l v e d and a l l c o n t i n u i t y l o s t . Because o f g e o l o g i c a l p r o b l e m s , t h e f u t u r e i s always uncer- t a i n , and one must l a y p l a n s a c c o r d i n g l y . Every c o l l i e r y h a s b o t h o p e r a t i n g p l a n s and i t s development p l a n s ; e v e r y g r o u p o f c o l - l i e r i e s h a s l o n g t e r m p l a n s b a s e d on e s t i m a t e s o f t h e m a r k e t , f i n a n c e and r e s o u r c e a v a i l a b i l i t y , t e c h n o l o g i c a l development.
The i n d u s t r y i s f u l l o f p l a n n e r s , and h a s g r e a t need o f them.
And t h e i r work n e e d s t o be p l a n n e d .
O p e r a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h and A p p l i e d Systems A n a l y s i s a r e p e r - h a p s more w i d e l y u s e d i n t h e c o a l i n d u s t r y t h a n any o t h e r i n d u s t r y .
' O R Comes o f Age' which t r a c e s t h e h i s t o r y o f O R i n t h e e a r l y d a y s of t h e UK N a t i o n a l Coal Board, shows how e a r l y and e x t e n s i v e l y t h e s e a p p r o a c h e s were a p p l i e d i n t h e i n d u s t r y . O t h e r n a t i o n a l i n d u s t r i e s d i d n o t l a g f a r b e h i n d i n t h e i r u s e o f t h e s e modern a i d s . And y e t t h e i r u s e h a s n o t b e e n , i n g e n e r a l , t h e r e s u l t o f p l a n n i n g . W e b e l i e v e t h a t t h i s i s wrong--for a number o f r e a s o n s .
I n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , t h e r e i s t h e q u e s t i o n o f t i m e . E f f e c t i v e s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t a k e s time--as any a n a l y t i c a l and i n v e s t i g a t o r y p r o c e s s d o e s . I f t h e s t u d y r e q u i r e s t h e development o f a computer s y s t e m f o r r o u t i n e a p p l i c a t i o n even more t i m e i s r e q u i r e d . The s e c r e t o f s u c c e s s f u l a p p l i e d s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s c e r t a i n l y i n c l u d e s t h e a r t o f a n t i c i p a t i o n .
S e c o n d l y , one must s e t p r i o r i t i e s . T h e r e a r e a g r e a t number o f p o s s i b l e a p p l i c a t i o n s o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t o mine planning--and e v e n t h e c o n s i d e r a b l e body o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s t s r e p r e s e n t e d a t t h e m e e t i n g on which t h i s p a p e r i s b a s e d have n o t s o l v e d them a l l . P r i o r i t i e s have t o b e a l l o c a t e d . I t i s n o t s i m p l y t h a t some ap- p l i c a t i o n s a r e more i m p o r t a n t t h a n o t h e r s , b u t t h a t t h e r e i s a n a t u r a l s e q u e n c e i n which t h e a p p l i c a t i o n s c a n be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e o v e r a l l p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s .
Above a l l , t h e r e i s t h e f u n d a m e n t a l need t o examine t h e p l a n - n i n g p r o c e s s i t s e l f i n t h e l i g h t o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s . P l a n n i n g i s
a l e n g t h y , e x p e n s i v e , complex s y s t e m w h i c h s h o u l d b e a n a l y z e d a s a w h o l e . By d e f i n i t i o n t h a t must b e t h e s u b j e c t f o r s y s t e m s a n a l - y s i s . But i t h a s t o b e done a t t h e o u t s e t .
T h e s e s t a t e m e n t s s h o u l d n o t , o f c o u r s e , b e t a k e n t o i m p l y t h a t t h e p r o c e s s o f p l a n n i n g h a s n o t b e e n t h e s u b j e c t o f s y s t e m - a t i c t h o u g h t . I t c l e a r l y h a s - - p a r t i c u l a r l y i n c o u n t r i e s s u c h a s P o l a n d , where t h e i n d u s t r y h a s b e e n s t e a d i l y e x p a n d i n g f o r many y e a r s a n d new c o l l i e r y d - e s i g n h a s b e e n a c o n t i n u i n g a c t i v i t y , s o t h a t a c o n t i n u o u s l e a r n i n g p r o c e s s h a s t a k e n p l a c e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e r e d o e s n o t e x i s t i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e a n a d e q u a t e o v e r v i e w o f t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s a s a w h o l e , from t h e s y s t e m s p o i n t o f view.
T h e r e i s l i t t l e d o u b t t h a t when t h i s i s d o n e , i t w i l l be p o s s i b l e t o improve o u r p l a n n i n g d e s i g n a n d u n d e r s t a n d b e t t e r t h e p a r t t h a t s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s c a n p l a y . I n view o f t h e m a j o r p a r t a l - r e a d y b e i n g p l a y e d by s e v e r a l h u n d r e d o p e r a t i o n a l r e s e a r c h w o r k e r s a n d s y s t e m s a n a l y s t s d e d i c a t e d t o t h e i n d u s t r y , t h e r e i s l i t t l e d o u b t t h a t t h e s k i l l , knowledge and e x p e r i e n c e i s a v a i l a b l e t o make t h i s f u r t h e r s t e p f o r w a r d .
I t i s t h i s b e l i e f a n d c o n c e r n t h a t l e d t o t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n o f t h e m e e t i n g whose d i s c u s s i o n i s summarized i n t h i s p a p e r . I t was, f i r s t a n d f o r e m o s t , p r i m a r i l y a m e e t i n g o f i n d u s t r y e x p e r t s a n d o f p e o p l e who would d i r e c t l y b e n e f i t from a n y improved u n d e r - s t a n d i n g a n d i n f o r m a t i o n t h a t r e s u l t e d f r o m t h e d i s c u s s i o n . They were c o n c e r n e d w i t h f i n d i n g o u t w h a t o t h e r e x p e r t s h a d done i n
t a c k l i n g t h e same p r o b l e m s a s t h e m s e l v e s , a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r
w h e t h e r t h e y h a d s u c c e s s f u l l y worked i n p r o b l e m a r e a s w h i c h t h e y h a d n o t a t t e m p t e d . T h e r e h a s n o t b e e n h e r e t o f o r e a m e e t i n g p l a c e f o r t h e s e e x p e r t s t o meet a n d d i s c u s s t h e i r work i n d e p t h . The e x i s t i n g l i t e r a t u r e i n t h e f i e l d i s l i m i t e d , i n many l a n g u a g e s , a n d s e l d o m d i s c u s s e s t h e i s s u e s o f r e a l i m p o r t a n c e . I n p a r t i c u l a r , i t i s o f t e n h a r d t o i d e n t i f y w h e t h e r a method d e s c r i b e d i n a p a p e r i s r e a l l y i n r e g u l a r u s e a n d - - i f so--what a r e t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s t h a t h a v e b e e n overcome a n d how. Even i n f a c e t o f a c e d i s c u s s i o n b e t w e e n p e o p l e w i t h d i f f e r e n t c u l t u r e s a n d l i n g u i s t i c b a c k g r o u n d s ,
t h e u n d e r l y i n g f a c t s a r e h a r d t o d e t e r m i n e . Given t h e w i l l it i s p o s s i b l e i n a c o n c e n t r a t e d s e s s i o n o f t h i s k i n d . A l l t h e a n a l y s t s c o n c e r n e d a g r e e d t h a t t h e i r t i m e was w e l l s p e n t .
Having a c h i e v e d t h i s p r i m a r y aim--whose s u c c e s s c a n b e a s - s e r t e d by t h o s e who a t t e n d e d , b u t c a n s e l d o m b e s e t o u t i n f i n a n - c i a l t e r m s - - t h e m e e t i n g had a s e c o n d t a s k . I t was t o t r y a n d d e s c r i b e t h e s t a t e o f t h e a r t s o a s t o a s s i s t b o t h p l a n n e r s a n d s y s t e m s a n a l y s t s t o d e t e r m i n e . m o r e c o m p r e h e n s i v e l y how s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s c a n a s s i s t t h e p l a n n e r i n h i s work, a n d t h e methods t h a t may b e u s e d . T h a t i s what t h e p a p e r a t t e m p t s t o d o .
The f i r s t s t e p h a s b e e n t o s t r u c t u r e t h e p r o b l e m a s a w h o l e , a n d i n t h i s r e p o r t l a r g e l y f o l l o w s t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e m e e t i n g i t s e l f , d e s c r i b e d i n Appendix A. The n e x t t h r e e c h a p t e r s , t h e r e - f o r e , d e a l i n t u r n w i t h r e s e r v e s a s s e s s m e n t , t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f m i n i n g l a y o u t s , t h e c o m p a r i s o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e t e c h n o l o g i e s . I n e a c h c a s e w e h a v e t a k e n t h e d i s c u s s i o n a t t h e m e e t i n g a s t h e b a s i s f o r d e s c r i b i n g t h e s t a t e o f t h e a r t , a n d i n d i c a t i n g p o s s i b l e
f u t u r e d i r e c t i o n s . W e h a v e n o t a t t e m p t e d t o s u m m a r i z e , e . g . , a l l t h e c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m s a v a i l a b l e t o t a c k l e c e r t a i n p r o b l e m s . T h e r e may b e room f o r s u c h a p u b l i c a t i o n , b u t w e h a v e n o t a t t e m p t e d i t
h e r e . Most o f t h o s e a t t h e m e e t i n g h a v e a l r e a d y d e v e l o p e d , o r w i l l c e r t a i n l y do s o , t h e i r own s t a n d a r d c o m p u t e r programs t o meet t h e i r s p e c i f i c r e q u i r e m e n t s . The p r o b l e m s a r e i n s p e c i f i c a - t i o n a n d i n u s e , n o t i n programming.
The p u r p o s e o f t h e s e s e s s i o n s , a s o f t h i s r e p o r t , was t o i d e n t i f y t h e methods u s e d t o a p p r o a c h t h e s e p r o b l e m s , a n d r e a s o n s f o r t h e i r d i f f e r e n c e s a n d s i m i l a r i t i e s , a n d t h e f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g g e n u i n e a c h i e v e m e n t . P e r h a p s , more i m p o r t a n t l y s t i l l , t h e meet- i n g s e r v e d t o i d e n t i f y new a r e a s o f r e s e a r c h i n f r e s h f i e l d s where t h e s y s t e m s > a n a l y s t h a s y e t t o make a f u l l c o n t r i b u t i o n b u t where w e b e l i e v e t h e p o t e n t i a l i s t h e r e t o do s o .
R e f e r e n c e s h o u l d b e made h e r e , a s a n a s i d e , t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f manpower, s u p p l y and r e q u i r e m e n t s . A s e s s i o n s was d e v o t e d t o t h i s a t t h e m e e t i n g , b u t t h e r e were no f o r m a l p r e s e n t a t i o n s a n d i t became c l e a r t h a t r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e a n a l y s i s was b e i n g under- t a k e n w i t h manpower a s t h e p r i m e f o c u s . What d i s c u s s i o n t h e r e was h a s t h e r e f o r e b e e n i n s e r t e d a s a p p r o p r i a t e i n t h e o t h e r
c h a p t e r s . N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e p r o b l e m i s c r u c i a l . A l t h o u g h t h e dream o f m a n l e s s - m i n i n g p e r s i s t s - - w e a r e s t i l l v e r y f a r from i t s a c h i e v e m e n t . F o r t h e t i m e b e i n g , s u c c e s s f u l m i n i n g w i l l depend o n t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f enough men w i t h t h e r i g h t s k i l l s . W e need
t o b e a b l e t o f o r e c a s t b o t h , a n d a n a l y t i c a l work h e r e w i l l become i n c r e a s i n g l y n e c e s s a r y .
A f t e r o u r f i r s t t h r e e s e c t i o n s , d e a l i n g w i t h s e p a r a t e a s p e c t s o f t h e whole p r o b l e m s , w e come t o t h e q u e s t i o n o f i n t e g r a t i n g t h e s e p a r a t e e l e m e n t s . W e c o n s i d e r t h i s i n two p a r t s . The f i r s t
c o n t i n u e s t o c o n c e n t r a t e on t h e m i n i n g a c t i v i t y a s s u c h , b u t p u l l s t o g e t h e r t h e v a r i o u s p a r t s s o a s t o s t a r t a n s w e r i n g s u c h q u e s t i o n s a s : What i s t h e b e s t way t o work t h e d e p o s i t ? What i s t h e o p t i - mal p r o d u c t i v e r a t e ? Where do w e l o c a t e t h e s h a f t s ? W e n e e d t o t h i n k a b o u t t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f e l e m e n t s i n t h e p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s b u t w e a l s o h a v e t o t a k e a c c o u n t o f u n c e r t a i n t y . The be- s e t t i n g s i n o f p l a n n e r s i s t o assume t h a t t h e f u t u r e i s f i x e d . I n c o a l m i n i n g terms, t h a t i m p l i e s t h a t w e know t h e f u t u r e demand f o r c o a l ( i n t e r m s o f q u a n t i t y , q u a l i t y and p r i c e )
,
a s w e l l a s t h e g e o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s t o b e e n c o u n t e r e d i n i t s e x t r a c t i o n . The s i m p l e f a c t i s t h a t t h e s e t h i n g s a r e n o t known w i t h c e r t a i n t y . Even i n n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i e s where demand r u n s a h e a d o f s u p p l y ,c e r t a i n a s p e c t s o f t h e m a r k e t - - p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e f u t u r e q u a l i t y r e q u i r e m e n t s o f new u t i l i z a t i o n t e c h n o l o q i e p - a r e unknown. C e r - t a i n l y g e o l o g i c a l d i f f i c u l t i e s do n o t r e s p e c t c u l t u r a l o r p o l i t i - c a l b o u n d a r i e s . The i n t e g r a t i o n o f s y s t e m s work i n t h i s f i e l d r e m a i n s a m a j o r c h a l l e n g e . T h i s d i s c u s s i o n i s d e a l t w i t h i n C h a p t e r V.
Moreover, w e c a n n o t s i m p l y t a l k i n t e r m s o f economic m i n i n g s o l u t i o n s . C h a p t e r V I d e a l s w i t h e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s , which now make a m a j o r i m p a c t i n a l l c o u n t r i e s , a l t h o u g h t h e way i n which an i m p a c t o c c u r s d e p e n d s o n l o c a l a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e s . No i n d u s t r y c a n i g n o r e t h e s e f a c t o r s , and t h e i n t e g r a t i n g power o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s i s b e i n g i n c r e a s i n g l y r e c o g n i z e d i n t h i s f i e l d . Work o f t h i s k i n d r e l a t e s t h e c o a l i n d u s t r y s t u d i e s more b r o a d l y t o s t u d i e s by o t h e r s p e c i a l i s t s , e . g . , s o c i o - e c o n o m i c
r e g i o n a l s t u d i e s . So t h e s y s t e m s a n a l y s t w i t h i n t h e c o a l i n d u s t r y c a n n o t b e t o o n a r r o w a s p e c i a l i s t .
The c h a p t e r on e n v i r o n m e n t a l f a c t o r s c o n c l u d e s t h e r e p o r t on t h e d i s c u s s i o n s u n d e r t a k e n a t t h e IIASA m e e t i n g . W e c o n c l u d e i n C h a p t e r V I I w i t h a c o d a , which draws t o g e t h e r t h e c o n c l u s i o n s from t h e i n d i v i d u a l c h a p t e r s . F i n a l l y , Appendix A s e t s o u t t h e Agenda f o r t h e m e e t i n g , Appendix B t h e names o f t h o s e a t t e n d i n g ; and t h e R e f e r e n c e s and L i s t o f P a p e r s P r e s e n t e d a r e r e p r o d u c e d s e p a r a t e l y a s IIASA C o l l a b o r a t i v e P a p e r CP-82-80.
A number o f r e f e r . e ~ c e s a r e made t o t h e p r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e 1 7 t h I n t e r n a t i o n a l C o n f e r e n c e on t h e A p p l i c a t i o n s o f Computers and O p e r a t i o n a l R e s e a r c h i n Mining (APCOM 1 7 ) . T h i s m e e t i n g was c a n c e l l e d a t t h e l a s t moment b u t w e h a v e had a c c e s s t o t h e p r e - p r i n t s o f p a p e r s p r e p a r e d f o r t h a t m e e t i n g .
T h i s I n t r o d u c t i o n must end w i t h a d i s c l a i m e r and a w a r n i n g . T h i s p a p e r r e p r e s e n t s t o t h e b e s t o f o u r a b i l i t y t h e p r e s e n t and p r o s p e c t i v e u s e o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s a s a n a i d t o t h e p l a n n i n g o f new c a p a c i t y i n d e e p c o a l mines. I t i s b a s e d on a knowledge o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e , on p r e s e n t a t i o n s a t t h e m e e t i n g , and on d i s c u s - s i o n s . However, i t h a s n o t b e e n p o s s i b l e t o examine e v e r y c a s e r e f e r r e d t o i n d e t a i l , n o r t o c o n f i r m t h e d e g r e e o f implementa- t i o n a c t u a l l y a c h i e v e d i n any p a r t i c u l a r c a s e . Moreover, i t must n e c e s s a r i l y b e a p a r t i a l p i c t u r e , s i n c e many o f t h o s e u n d e r t a k i n g s u c h work i n d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s w e r e n e i t h e r p r e s e n t n o r r e p r e - s e n t e d . I n p a r t i c u l a r , when views a r e summarized i n terms o f ' I n t h e USA...' i t s h o u l d be r e a l i z e d t h a t t h i s o n l y e x p r e s s e s t h e u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h o s e p r e s e n t a t t h e m e e t i n g . I t was a m e e t i n g o f e x p e r t s c o n d u c t i n g a s c i e n t i f i c exchange o f i d e a s , n o t a meet- i n g o f o f f i c i a l d e l e g a t i o n s . However, a l t h o u g h t h i s l i m i t a t i o n w i l l i n e v i t a b l y l e a d t o some p a r t i a l t r u t h s , w e do n o t t h i n k t h a t
t h e r e i s s e r i o u s d i s t o r t i o n i n t h e g e n e r a l p i c t u r e .
CHAPTER 11--RESERVES ASSESSMENT
1 . I N T R O D U C T I O N
The q u a n t i t y , q u a l i t y , d i s p o s i t i o n and g e o l o g i c a l c h a r a c t e r - i s t i c s of c o a l r e s e r v e s a r e t h e f i r s t f a c t o r s t o b e c o n s i d e r e d i n e v a l u a t i n g a new mine o r major mining e x t e n s i o n . E x p l o r a t i o n
p r a c t i c e f o r deep mine c o a l r e s e r v e s does n o t d i f f e r markedly from c o u n t r y t o c o u n t r y and t y p i c a l l y f o l l o w s t h e f o l l o w i n g s e q u e n c e :
( a ) A few w i d e l y - s p a c e d b o r e h o l e s a r e sunk m e r e l y t o i d e n t i f y t h e p r e s e n c e o r a b s e n c e o f c o a l .
( b ) I f e n c o u r a g i n g , more b o r e h o l e s a r e sunk e n a b l i n g t e n t a - t i v e e s t i m a t e s t o b e made o f t h e s i z e and q u a l i t y o f r e s e r v e s .
( c ) L a t e r , s e i s m i c methods may be u s e d , supplemented by a s t i l l g r e a t e r i n t e n s i t y o f b o r e h o l e s t o e s t a b l i s h w h e t h e r t h e c o a l seams a r e s u f f i c i e n t l y u n d i s t u r b e d f o r t h e r e - q u i r e d l e v e l s o f p r o d u c t i v i t y .
The i n f o r m a t i o n p r o v i d e d , t o g e t h e r w i t h i n f o r m a t i o n from
n e i g h b o r i n g c o l l i e r i e s ( i f a n y ) i s a l l t h a t c a n b e used i n a s s e s s - i n g t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f a new mine o r m a j o r c o l l i e r y e x t e n s i o n : i t p r o v i d e s t h e f o u n d a t i o n f o r a l l t h a t f o l l o w s i n new c a p a c i t y p l a n - n i n g . N e v e r t h e l e s s , a s e x p l o r a t i o n i s e x p e n s i v e t h e manager,
p l a n n e r , g e o l o g i s t , and s y s t e m s a n a l y s t have t o work w i t h informa- t i o n t h a t i s f a r from c o m p l e t e .
T h i s c h a p t e r d e s c r i b e s t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n t h a t h a s been made by t h e s y s t e m s a n a l y s t and o u t l i n e s t h o s e a r e a s where s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s h a s y e t t o make a f u l l , o r a t l e a s t c o n s i s t e n t , c o n t r i b u - t i o n . I t i s comprised o f t h r e e s e c t i o n s , namely:
( i ) t h e e s t i m a t i o n from g i v e n e x p l o r a t i o n , ( i i ) t h e d e s i g n o f e x p l o r a t i o n s t r a t e g i e s , and ( i i i ) t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f r e s e r v e s .
I t s h o u l d be emphasized t h a t t h e c h a p t e r r e f e r s o n l y t o work done f o r deep mine c o a l r e s e r v e s . Much v a l u a b l e r e s e a r c h h a s
been u n d e r t a k e n i n t h i s f i e l d f o r o p e n c a s t m i n i n g , b u t t h i s i s n o t d i r e c t l y t r a n s f e r a b l e l a r g e l y b e c a u s e o f t h e huge d i f f e r e n c e s i n b o r e h o l e d e n s i t y , which f o l l o w s t o some e x t e n t b e c a u s e o f t h e
r e l a t i v e l y h i g h c o s t s o f t h e d e e p b o r e h o l e s .
2 . THE ESTIMATION FROM G I V E N EXPLORATION
The u s e o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t o h e l p e s t i m a t e t h e c h a r a c t e r - i s t i c s o f t h e c o a l seam from t h e r e s u l t s o f e x p l o r a t i o n i s u n i v e r - s a l and u n c o n t r o v e r s i a l . These a c h i e v e m e n t s a r e , however, more marked i n t h e c a s e o f t h e c o n t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s o f c o a l ( s u c h a s t h i c k n e s s , d e p t h , a s h , s u l f u r , and c h l o r i n e ) t h a n w i t h t h e d i s c o n - t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s ( p r i m a r i l y g e o l o g i c a l h a z a r d s s u c h a s f a u l t i n g o r w a s h o u t s ) . T h i s may b e b e c a u s e t h e methodology r e q u i r e d i s l a g g i n g b e h i n d t h a t d e v e l o p e d f o r examining c o n t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s , b u t more i m p o r t a n t l y b e c a u s e t h e s p a r s i t y o f t h e i n f o r m a t i o n
a v a i l a b l e b e f o r e a mine i s d e v e l o p e d i s more d i s a d v a n t a g e o u s t o an e x a m i n a t i o n o f d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s .
S e v e r a l examples o f t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n made by s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e c o n t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s o f c o a l were d e s c r i b e d a t t h e m e e t i n g . While p r e c i s e methods v a r i e d from c o u n t r y t o c o u n t r y , i t was e v i d e n t t h a t a good d a a a s e o f r e s e r v e s i n f o r m a t i o n s h o u l d be e s t a b l i s h e d s o t h a t s p e e d y a s s e s s m e n t s c a n b e made n o t o n l y o f t h e r e s e r v e s t h e m s e l v e s b u t o f t h e impact o f any mining p l a n . Two e x a m p l e s , from P o l a n d and t h e U K , i l l u s t r a t e t h i s a p p r o a c h .
I n P o l a n d , computer programs [ 5 ] have been d e v e l o p e d which e n a b l e e s t i m a t e s t o be made o f c o a l r e s e r v e s a t o p t i o n a l d e p t h
i n t e r v a l s . The model i t s e l f c o n t a i n s d e t a i l s o f ' d e p t h , seam t h i c k - n e s s and up t o t e n f u r t h e r p a r a m e t e r s of i n t e r e s t ( s u c h a s a s h , s u l f u r , o r c a l o r i f i c v a l u e ) . The programs a r e u s e d t o p r o v i d e t h e i n i t i a l l i n k between r e s e r v e s a s s e s s m e n t and m i n i n g p l a n by d i v i d - i n g t h e r e s e r v e s i n t o c o a l mining a r e a s , c a l c u l a t i n g t h e d e p t h o f mine h o r i z o n s and i n d i c a t i n g t h e p r e f e r r e d l o c a t i o n o f s h a f t s . These programs have been s u c c e s s f u l l y u s e d s e v e r a l t i m e s , i n c l u d - i n g f o r t h e major development i n t h e L u b l i n Coal B a s i n .
S i m i l a r l y , t h e UK have d e v e l o p e d a computer s y s t e m , GEOPLAN [ 8 ] which u s e s b o r e h o l e i n f o r m a t i o n t o produce summaries o f t h e g e o l o g i c a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s e r v e s on a s q u a r e g r i d b a s i s . The d a t a b a s e o f b o r e h o l e i n f o r m a t i o n c o n t a i n s s u c h d e t a i l s a s c o a l s e c t i o n , d i r t s e c t i o n and a v e r a g e p e r c e n t a g e a s h , s u l f u r and C h l o r i n e and GEOPLAN s y s t e m can be used t o examine any o f t h e s e , u n d e r d i f f e r e n t c o n s t r a i n t s . An example might be t o examine t h e g e o g r a p h i c d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s e r v e s s u b j e c t t o a l i m i t o f 15% a s h i n t h e worked s e c t i o n . A f e a t u r e o f t h e s y s t e m i s t h e u s e o f dummy b o r e h o l e s when a g e o l o g i s t may c o r r e c t t h e d a t a b a s e t o h i s own
i n t e r p r e t a t i o n when b o r e h o l e i n t e r p o l a t i o n i s t h o u g h t m i s l e a d i n g .
L i k e t h e P o l i s h p r o g r a m s , GEOPLAN n o t o n l y summarizes t h e r e s e r v e s d i s t r i b u t i o n , b u t a l s o a s s e s s e s t h e b r o a d consequences of a mining s t r a t e g y g i v e n t h i s r e s e r v e s d i s t r i b u t i o n .
I n c o n s t r u c t i n g any d a t a b a s e of r e s e r v e s i n f o r m a t i o n t h e p r a c t i t i o n e r s o f t h e c o u n t r i e s p r e s e n t a t t h e m e e t i n g a l l t e n d t o u s e methods o f i n t e r p o l a t i o n t h a t a r e s i m p l e i n c o n c e p t . These i n c l u d e a s s e s s i n g l i n e a r change between b o r e h o l e s (USSR, P o l a n d ) , polygon methods (US, though o c c a s i o n a l l y g e o s t a t i s t i c a l methods) and a v e r a g i n g from t h e t h r e e n e a r e s t b o r e h o l e s u s i n g w e i g h t s i n - v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e i r s q u a r e d d i s t a n c e ( U K )
.
The e v i d e n c e a s t o t h e v a l u e more s o p h i s t i c a t e d models o f seam b e h a v i o r i n t h e a s s e s s m e n t o f d e e p mine c o a l r e s e r v e s a p p e a r s t o b e c o n f l i c t i n g . For example, nobody p r e s e n t a t t h e t a s k f o r c e m e e t i n g had a c h i e v e d s u c c e s s i n t h e a p p l i c a t i o n o f g e o s t a t i s t i c s , a l t h o u g h s e v e r a l had t r i e d . I n p a r t i c u l a r , d o u b t s were c a s t on t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e s e m i - v a r i o g r a m s , g i v e n t h e p a u c i t y o f d a t a a v a i l a b l e . Neverthe- l e s s , t h e r e a r e some t e c h n i c a l p a p e r s i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e which sup- p o r t t h e u s e o f g e o s t a t i s t i c s f o r deep c o a l a s s e s s m e n t ( A l , A 2 ) , s o d o u b t l e s s t h e m a t t e r w i l l remain a s u b j e c t f o r d e b a t e f o r some t i m e t o come. F u n d a m e n t a l l y , however, t h e m e e t i n g c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e c h o i c e o f methods o f i n t e r p o l a t i o n , i n t h e c o n t e x t of new deep- mine p l a n n i n g , may n o t b e c r u c i a l ; what i s i m p o r t a n t i s t o e s t a b -l i s h a c o n v e n i e n t , a c c e p t a b l e and s u f f i c i e n t l y r e l i a b l e d a t a b a s e o f r e s e r v e s i n f o r m a t i o n which i s e a s i l y u p d a t e d a s more i n f o r m a t i o n becomes a v a i l a b l e and which r e l a t e s r e s e r v e s t o s u b s e q u e n t mining
a c t i v i t y .
I t was mentioned e a r l i e r t h a t a l t h o u g h s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s h a s been w i d e l y i n v o l v e d i n t h e f i e l d o f e s t i m a t i n g c o n t i n u o u s p r o p e r - t i e s of c o a l , t h e same c a n n o t b e s a i d when i t comes t o d e a l i n g
w i t h d i s c o n t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s . One example o f how s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s m i g h t c o n t r i b u t e was p r o v i d e d a t t h e t a s k f o r c e m e e t i n g by t h e
F e d e r a l R e p u b l i c o f Germany [ I 1
,
(A3).
F o r t h e Ruhr c o a l f i e l d , a method h a s been d e v i s e d f o r e x p r e s s i n g i n q u a n t i t a t i v e t e r m s t h el i k e l y r e s e r v e s t h a t w i l l u l t i m a t e l y b e e x t r a c t e d a f t e r r e l a x a t i o n s have been made t o i n s i t u r e s e r v e s a c c o r d i n g t o v a r i o u s h i s t o r i c a l l y d e r i v e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s . Amongst o t h e r t h i n g s , t h e s e r e l a t i o n s h i p s a l l o w f o r t h e d e g r e e o f u n c e r t a i n t y a b o u t t h e g e o l o g i c a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e a r e a i n q u e s t i o n s , t h e a n t i c i p a t e d f a u l t i n t e n s i t y and t h e p l a n n e d worked s e c t i o n o f t h e seam i n q u e s t i o n . The method h a s b e e n w i d e l y used i n Ruhrkohle f o r l o n g t e r m p l a n n i n g , t o a d v i s e on t h e r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f d i f f e r e n t a r e a s o f c o a l , i n c l u d - i n g a d v i c e on which a r e a s o f t a k e t o l e a v e untouched.
3. DESIGN O F EXPLORATION
There a r e two m a j o r problems t o b e overcome by t h e s y s t e m s a n a l y s t s e e k i n g t o a d v i s e on t h e d e s i g n o f e x p l o r a t i o n , w h e t h e r c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e c o n t i n u o u s o r t h e d i s c o n t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s of c o a l r e s e r v e s . The f i r s t o f t h e s e i s t o e s t i m a t e ( a ) t h e i n c r e a s e i n knowledge a b o u t t h e s e p r o p e r t i e s t h a t i s made p o s s i b l e by
f u r t h e r e x p l o r a t i o n , and ( b ) t o e s t i m a t e t h e v a l u e o f s u c h i n c r e a s e d knowledge. I t a p p e a r s t h a t s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s h a s some way t o go i n t h i s f i e l d and t h e r e i s l i t t l e e v i d e n c e o f a major c o n t r i b u t i o n from s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t o e x p l o r a t i o n d e s i g n .
T h i s i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e o f c o n t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s . L i t t l e work was i n e v i d e n c e on s u c h problems a s b o r e h o l e s p a c i n g , which a p p e a r e d t o v a r y from c o u n t r y t o c o u n t r y b e c a u s e o f h i s t o r i c cus- tom and p r a c t i c e r a t h e r t h a n f o r good s c i e n t i f i c o r s t a t i s t i c a l r e a s o n s . The l a c k o f i n f l u e n c e of s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s i s p r o b a b l y e x p l a i n e d by t h e a b s e n c e of s a t i s f a c t o r y methods o f t h e r e q u i r e d s t a t i s t i c a l s o p h i s t i c a t i o n f o r t h e n e c e s s a r y e v a l u a t i o n o f r i s k s and p r o b a b i l i t i e s . The s i m p l e methods more g e n e r a l l y u s e d f o r r e s e r v e s a s s e s s m e n t a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t i n t h i s f i e l d . G e o s t a t i s t i c s i s c e r t a i n l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d enough b u t , a s mentioned p r e v i o u s l y , i t s v a l i d i t y i s n o t u n i v e r s a l l y a c c e p t e d .
With d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s , t h e r e i s a l i t t l e more e v i d e n c e o f a c o n t r i b u t i o n from s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s - - i f n o t an e x p l o r a t i o n d e s i g n , a t l e a s t i n a d v i s i n g on t h e v a l u e o f e x p l o r a t i o n . One example
[ 8 1 , ( A 4 ) c o n c e r n s t h e u s e o f o p e r a t i o n a l gaming t o a s s e s s t h e b e n e f i t s o f s u r f a c e s e i s m i c e x p l o r a t i o n . I n s i m p l e t e r m s , t h e
a p p r o a c h i s t o t e s t t h e consequences on a mining p l a n o f t h e l i k e l y knowledge o f t h e p o s i t i o n of m a j o r f a u l t s t h a t would be p r o v i d e d by s e i s m i c e x p l o r a t i o n , and t o s e e w h e t h e r t h e d i f f e r e n c e s a r e
s i g n i f i c a n t enough t o make e x p e n d i t u r e on s e i s m i c e x p l o r a t i o n w o r t h w h i l e . D e c i s i o n a n a l y s i s h a s been u s e d t o a s s e s s t h e bene-
f i t s o f in-seam s e i s m o l o g y , b a s e d on a p r o b a b i l i t y t r e e which d e s c r i b e s outcomes w i t h and w i t h o u t t h e s u r v e y .
4 . THE CALCULATION OF RESERVES
S e c t i o n 2 o f t h i s c h a p t e r o u t l i n e s t h e s u b s t a n t i a l r o l e
p l a y e d by s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s i n e s t i m a t i n g p r o p e r t i e s o f t h e r e s e r v e s from a g i v e n e x p l o r a t i o n . Much o f t h i s work, of c o u r s e , a p p l i e s d i r e c t l y t o t h e f i n a l c a l c u l a t i o n o f r e s e r v e s when t h e s u r f a c e e x p l o r a t i o n program i s c o m p l e t e . I t would, however, be wrong t o a s s e s s r e s e r v e s p u r e l y i n t h e g e o l o g i c a l s e n s e w i t h o u t r e l a t i n g them t o o t h e r f a c t o r s . I n o r d e r t o f u l l y a s s e s s r e s e r v e s i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o t a k e a c c o u n t o f such f a c t o r s as:
( a ) economic a s s u m p t i o n s ( o n t h e v a l u e o f c o a l and i t s a l t e r - n a t i v e s )
,
( b ) mining t e c h n o l o g y (what e x t r a c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s a r e o r w i l l b e p o s s i b l e ? )
,
( c ) q u a l i t y ( w i l l c o n s t r a i n t s change?)
,
and( d ) e n v i r o n m e n t a l i s s u e s ( s u b s i d e n c e e f f e c t s , p i l l a r s , n e c e s - s a r y , changes t o a t t i t u d e o r l e g i s l a t i o n ) .
There i s wide l i t e r a t u r e ( e . g . , A 5 ) d e s c r i b i n g a s s e s s m e n t s o f t h i s t y p e on a n a t i o n a l o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l l e v e l , b u t f o r an i n d i v i d u a l mine more s p e c i f i c knowledge o f t h e c o a l d e p o s i t i s r e q u i r e d t o e v a l u a t e t h e e f f e c t s of t h e s e f o u r f a c t o r s .
C l e a r l y , t h i s i n d i c a t e s t h e c l o s e c o n n e c t i o n w i t h o t h e r t o p i c s d i s c u s s e d a t t h e t a s k f o r c e m e e t i n g , b u t i t a l s o d e m o n s t r a t e s t h e t r u e worth o f t h e work d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r . F o r t h e s t r e n g t h of t h e computer, a s o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n 3 , i s t h a t once d a t a banks a r e
e s t a b l i s h e d , t h e y c a n b e u p d a t e d a s economic, t e c h n i c a l , o r mar- k e t i n g a s s u m p t i o n s c h a n g e . While i t would b e wrong t o s u g g e s t t h a t f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h i s n o t n e e d e d , s y s t e m s a n a l y s t s a r e d e v e l o p - i n g models which d e m o n s t r a t e how e s t i m a t e s o f r e s e r v e s change w i t h a c o n t i n u o u s l y c h a n g i n g economic and t e c h n i c a l c l i m a t e .
5. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1 . Systems a n a l y s i s h a s c o n t r i b u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n t h e f i e l d o f r e s e r v e s a s s e s s m e n t , l a r g e l y t h r o u g h t h e d e v e l o p - ment o f computer s y s t e m s which a s s e s s r e s e r v e s l i n k e d t o m i n i n g p l a n s and r e l e v a n t m a r k e t i n g and economic assump- t i o n s .
2. Work i s n o t s o a d v a n c e d o n t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f t h e d i s c o n - t i n u o u s p r o p e r t i e s o f r e s e r v e s a s o n t h e c o n t i n u o u s prop- e r t i e s .
3. A g r e a t e r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e knowledge p r o v i d e d by e x p l o r a t i o n a n d t h e v a l u e o f s u c h knowledge i s n e c e s s a r y b e f o r e s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s c a n c o n t r i b u t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n t h e f i e l d o f e x p l o r a t i o n d e s i g n .
REFERENCES
A1 A new g e o s t a t i s t i c a l model f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f c o a l d e p o s i t s and o t h e r s e d i m e n t a r y d e p o s i t s . J . Rendu, M. D a v i d , APCOM 1979.
A2 Comparison o f t h e c l a s s i c a l methods a n d g e o s t a t i s t i c s f o r o n e r e s e r v e e s t i m a t i o n f o r a m u l t i p l e seam c o a l mine. K . J . A s h l e y , W.H. G r i f f e n , J . R . S t u r g a l , APCOM 1980.
A3 A q u a n t i t a t i v e e v a l u a t i o n o f t e c t r o n i c f a u l t s which hamper m i n i n g o p e r a t i o n s w i t h t h e aim o f i m p r o v i n g t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f c o a l m i n i n g i n t h e Ruhr. D. Hudewentz, APCOM 1980.
A 4 How O p e r a t i o n a l Gaming c a n h e l p w i t h t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f a new t e c h n o l o g y . M. G.M. Sloman, ORQ 1977, Vo1 . 2 8 . 4 .
A5 R e s e r v e s a n d R e s o u r c e s - - R a p p o r t e u r
'
s R e p o r t . G . R . F e t t w e i s.
U n i t e d N a t i o n s Symposium on World C o a l P r o s p e c t s , 15-23 O c t o b e r 1979, K a t o w i c e , P o l a n d . TCD/NRET/AC.12/2.
CHAPTER 1 1 1 - - M I N I N G METHODS: EVALUATION
1 . I N T R O D U C T I O N
T h i s c h a p t e r d e a l s w i t h t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e d e t a i l e d p l a n n i n g sub-problems o f mining method e v a l u a t i o n . These sub-problems a r i s e w h e t h e r o r n o t l o c a - t i o n and s i z e o f m i n e ( s ) have been d e t e r m i n e d .
A w i d e r r a n g e o f OR s y s t e m s a p p l i c a t i o n s h a s been r e p o r t e d i n t h i s f i e l d t h a n i n any o t h e r . S e c t i o n 2 below l i s t s some of t h e s e sub-problem a r e a s and a p p l i c a t i o n s . S e c t i o n 3 d i s c u s s e s t h e s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s which have been used i n s u c h ap- p l i c a t i o n s . S e c t i o n 4 g o e s on t o d i s c u s s t h e d i f f i c u l t i e s t h a t have been e n c o u n t e r e d once a t t e m p t s a r e made t o l i n k problem a r e a s t o g e t h e r .
2 . PROBLEM AREAS
A l a r g e number o f problem a r e a s have been t a c k l e d . T h i s emerged b o t h from d i s c u s s i o n and i s a l s o a p p a r e n t from p u b l i s h e d l i t e r a t u r e s u c h a s t h e Summary o f P a p e r s of t h e 1 7 t h APCOM. The f o l l o w i n g l i s t , which i s n o t i n t e n d e d t o b e e x h a u s t i v e , shows t h e r a n g e of problem a r e a s where s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s have been a p p l i e d :
Face d e s i g n - - d i m e n s i o n s a n d / o r equipment Face design--working methods
P r o d u c t i v i t y f o r e c a s t i n g - - a d v a n c e r a t e s
P r o d u c t i v i t y forecasting--manpower r e q u i r e m e n t s
Layout e v a l u a t i o n - - t h e s e q u e n c i n g o f f a c e s i n s p a c e and t i m e Coal c l e a r a n c e
M a t e r i a l s t r a n s p o r t T r a n s p o r t o f men V e n t i l a t i o n
C o n t r o l o f g a s e m i s s i o n T e m p e r a t u r e c o n t r o l Rock m e c h a n i c s
S u b s i d e n c e
C o a l b r e a k i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A c c i d e n t p r e v e n t i o n
S h a f t d e s i g n C o a l p r e p a r a t i o n .
I t i s i n t h i s s o r t o f work w h e r e g r e a t e s t a n d most c o n s i s t e n t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s u c c e s s has b e e n a c h i e v e d . I n some p r o b l e m a r e a s , e . g . , c o a l c l e a r a n c e , v e n t i l a t i o n , and c o a l p r e p a r a t i o n , i t i s a l m o s t s t a n d a r d t h r o u g h o u t t h e w o r l d t h a t mine p l a n n e r s a n d en- g i n e e r s u s e t h e models o f t h e s y s t e m s a n a l y s t , o f t e n now w i t h o u t h i s a s s i s t a n c e . I n o t h e r a r e a s , e . g . , f a c e d e s i g n , p r o d u c t i v i t y f o r e c a s t i n g , and l a y o u t e v a l u a t i o n , t h e s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s c o n t r i b u - t i o n i s p o t e n t i a l l y a s s t r o n g , a l t h o u g h i n t h e n a t u r e o f t h i n g s i m p l e m e n t a t i o n c a n n o t b e s o r o u t i n e .
Two o b v i o u s , b u t n e v e r t h e l e s s i m p o r t a n t , p o i n t s w e r e e m p h a s i z e d a s b e i n g v i t a l f o r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s u c c e s s . F i r s t l y , f r o m t h e
e a r l i e s t s t a g e s t h e r e m u s t b e c l o s e i n v o l v e m e n t o f t h e p o t e n t i a l u s e r , t h e mine p l a n n e r o r e n g i n e e r . S e c o n d l y , t h e amount o f de- v e l o p m e n t e f f o r t n e c e s s a r y t o a c h i e v e c o n s i s t e n t i m p l e m e n t a t i o n m u s t n o t b e u n d e r e s t i m a t e d .
The s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e s u s e d a r e d i s c u s s e d i n t h e n e x t s e c t i o n . The d i s c u s s i o n c o n c e n t r a t e s o n o n e p a r t i c u l a r p r o b l e m a r e a , t h a t o f l a y o u t e v a l u a t i o n and t h e p l a n n i n g o f t h e s e q u e n c i n g o f f a c e s i n s p a c e a n d t i m e . However, t h e d i s c u s s i o n i s r e l e v a n t t o a l l p r o b l e m a r e a s , a n d e x a m p l e s from o t h e r s a r e u s e d a s a p p r o - p r i a t e .
3 . SYSTEMS ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES USED
3.1 D e s c r i p t i v e Models
I n t h e s e models ( w h i c h a r e u s u a l l y b a s e d on s i m p l e f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s ) t h e e m p h a s i s i s u s u a l l y p l a c e d o n c o m m u n i c a b i l i t y a n d t h e f a c i l i t y f o r e a s y and r a p i d e v a l u a t i o n s w i t h c h a n g i n g
a s s u m p t i o n s , s o t h a t t h e mine p l a n n e r c a n e x p l o r e t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f u n c e r t a i n t y . Examples r e l e v a n t h e r e a r e models o f t h e p r o d u c - t i o n p r o c e s s aimed a t i m p r o v i n g t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f l o n g w a l l m i n i n g by i n c r e a s i n g m a c h i n e u t i l i z a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s (FRG--B1); models which a l l o w t h e a n a l y s i s o f v a r i a t i o n o f p r o d u c t i o n q u a n t i t y ( a s h , c h l o r i n e , e t c ) f o r a g i v e n mine l a y o u t f o r up t o 70 y e a r s f u t u r e w o r k i n g s ( U K Geoplan-- [8] ) ; a n d a model o f s u b s i d e n c e a r i s i n g from
g i v e n m i n i n g l a y o u t s ( P o l a n d , B2)
.
3.2 S i m u l a t i o n Models
T h i s i s t h e most i m p o r t a n t t e c h n i q u e by w h i c h t h e p r o b l e m a r e a s l i s t e d i n S e c t i o n 2 a r e i n v e s t i g a t e d . A g e n e r a l s u r v e y o f s u c h a p p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e USSR i s g i v e n i n [ 1 1 , 1 2 1 , w h i l e [ 5 ] g i v e s a p a r t i c u l a r l y d e t a i l e d a c c o u n t o f P o l i s h e x p e r i e n c e . A s more s p e c i f i c e x a m p l e s : s i m u l a t i o n o f l o n g w a l l p r o d u c t i o n , p r o -
d u c t i v i t y and q u a l i t y i s d e s c r i b e d i n f o r e x a m p l e , (B2, USSR);
s i m u l a t i o n o f m u l t i p l e seam m i n i n g f o r p l a n n i n g a p p r o p r i a t e f a c e s e q u e n c e s and m i n i n g g e o m e t r y i s d e s c r i b e d i n ( B 4 , J a p a n ) ; s i m u l a - t i o n o f c o a l c l e a r a n c e s y s t e m s f o r p l a n n i n g u n d e r g r o u n d b u n k e r and b e l t c a p a c i t i e s w e r e d e s c r i b e d d u r i n g S e c t i o n 2 by P o l a n d , t h e UK
(Simbunk a n d S i m b e l t ) , a n d USSR; s i m u l a t i o n o f s u r f a c e c o a l f l o w s t o d e t e r m i n e r e q u i r e d c a p a c i t i e s o f ROM b u n k e r a g e , c o a l p r e p a r a - t i o n p l a n t and r a p i d l o a d i n g b u n k e r a g e i s d e s c r i b e d i n (B5, U R ) . 3 . 3 O p e r a t i o n a l Gaming--Hand S i m u l a t i o n
One method by which t h e p u r p o s e a n d i m p l i c a t i o n s o f a s i m u l a - t i o n c a n b e made p a r t i c u l a r l y c l e a r t o t h e p l a n n e r and e n g i n e e r i s by hand s i m u l a t i o n , o r o p e r a t i o n a l gaming. T h e r e a r e v e r y few e x a m p l e s o f t h i s t e c h n i q u e i n p r a c t i c e ; p e r h a p s t h e t i m e t a k e n t o p e r f o r m s u c h s i m u l a t i o n s m i l i t a t e s a g a i n s t t h e n . The UK h a v e d e v e l o p e d one hand s i m u l a t i o n m e t h o d s , Geosimplan [ 8 ] which h a s b e e n u s e d r e p e a t e d l y a t e x i s t i n g c o l l i e r i e s t o a n a l y z e t h e r o b u s t - n e s s o f l a y o u t s / m i n i n g s t r a t e g i e s i n t h e f a c e o f g e o l o g i c a l u n c e r - t a i n t y , a n d a l s o t o a n a l y z e t h e v a l u e o f i n f o r m a t i o n p r o b l e m o f t h e b e n e f i t s o f s u r f a c e s e i s m o l o g y .
3.4 O p t i m i z a t i o n
Of t h e main deep-mine c o a l p r o d u c e r s , o n l y USSR and P o l a n d r e p o r t s u b s t a n t i a l i n t e r e s t i n o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s (USSR [ 1 1 , 121; P o l a n d [ 5 , 7 1 . More d e t a i l e d e x a m p l e s o f a p p r o a c h e s a n a l y z - i n g v a r i o u s a s p e c t s o f mine l a y o u t p l a n n i n g i n t h e USSR c a n b e f o u n d f o r example i n (B5, B7, B 8 ) . A d e t a i l e d P o l i s h s t u d y o f optimum f a c e a n d s u p p l y roadway c o n f i g u r a t i o n s i s shown i n [ 4 ]
.
The FRG, USA and UK d i d n o t r e p o r t u s e o f o p t i m i z a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s i n t h i s f i e l d w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n o f r e g i o n a l p r o d u c t i o n / m a r k e t a l l o c a t i o n m o d e l s .
4 . COMBINING PROBLEM AREAS
4.1 The N e c e s s i t y t o Combine
I f two p r o b l e m a r e a s , o r two s e g m e n t s , o f a mine l a y o u t a r e modeled s e p a r a t e l y and d e c i s i o n s t a k e n a c c o r d i n g l y , t h e r e i s no g u a r a n t e e o f t o t a l s y s t e m o p t i m a l i t y o r e v e n t h a t t h e t o t a l s o l u - t i o n i s amongst t h e m o s t r o b u s t . P o l a n d n o t e d t h a t p r a c t i c a l d i f - f i c u l t i e s e n s u e t h r o u g h a t t e m p t s t o s o l v e a l l p r o b l e m s s e p a r a t e l y : f o r e x a m p l e , t h e m e c h a n i z a t i o n o f d e v e l o p m e n t s and t h e a u t o m a t i o n o f c o a l and man t r a n s p o r t s y s t e m s h a s l a g g e d f a r b e h i n d f a c e
m e c h a n i z a t i o n . T h e r e i s f u l l a g r e e m e n t t h a t i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o a t t e m p t t o model c o m b i n a t i o n s o f p r o b l e m a r e a s .
4 . 2 Achievements o f Systems A n a l y s i s
S i m u l a t i o n , s o s u c c e s s f u l i n i n v e s t i g a t i n g i n d i v i d u a l problem a r e a s , h a s had mixed r e s u l t s once a t t e m p t s a r e made t o l i n k sub- problem s i m u l a t i o n s . The P o l i s h e x p e r i e n c e i s t h a t a l t h o u g h simu- l a t i o n programs a r e u s e d on q u i t e a s c a l e , i t h a s n o t p r o v e d pos- s i b l e t o d e v e l o p a s i m u l a t i o n program good enough f o r an e n t i r e l a y o u t . The USSR c l a i m s some s u c c e s s w i t h s i m u l a t i o n models com- b i n i n g more t h a n o n e p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s , e . g . , c o a l mining and c o a l t r a n s p o r t ( e . g . , B10, B11). The FRG r e p o r t e d some i m p r e s s i v e p a p e r s c o v e r i n g some a s p e c t s o f l a y o u t p l a n n i n g ( r e f e r e n c e s n o t g i v e n ) a t t h e i r l a s t n a t i o n a l m e e t i n g ; however, o v e r a l l a t t e m p t s t o o b t a i n a t o t a l s y s t e m s model have been a c o m p l e t e f a i l u r e . The USA r e p o r t t e c h n i c a l s u c c e s s ( B 9 ) ; t h e Penn S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y S i m u l a t i o n System c a n b e used f o r t o t a l s i m u l a t i o n o f t h e o r e t i c - a l l y any underground mining s y s t e m , a l t h o u g h t h e model r e f l e c t s t h e c u r r e n t USA b i a s t o w a r d s room and p i l l a r w o r k i n g . However, i n c r e a s e d c o m p l e x i t y h a s l e d t o ( a ) problems w i t h i n p u t d a t a , and
( b ) problems o f i m p l e m e n t a t i o n - - a t t h e moment p r a c t i c a l a p p l i c a - t i o n s o u t s i d e G n i v e r s i t i e s a r e e x t r e m e l y r a r e .
Some o f t h e o p t i m i z a t i o n models o f t h e USSR and P o l a n d r e f e r e n c e d i n 3 . 4 above c l e a r l y i n p l y a d e g r e e o f t o t a l s y s t e m modeling. However, i t i s a l s o a p p a r e n t from t h e S e s s i o n d i s c u s - s i o n t h a t t h i s i s a t t h e e x p e n s e o f ( a ) t h e d e t a i l p o s s i b l e w i t h models o f i n d i v i d u a l problem a r e a s ; and ( b ) t h e c o m m u n i c a b i l i t y t o mine p l a n n e r and e n g i n e e r which i s t h e s t r o n g - p o i n t o f d e s c r i p - t i v e and s i m u l a t i o n modeling.
5 . SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
The r e l a t i v e f a i l u r e o f s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s t o d e v e l o p t o t a l s y s t e m models d o e s n o t imply t h a t s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s s h o u l d n o t be u s e d t o a n a l z e t h e t o t a l s y s t e m . I n f a c t t h e c o n v e r s e i s t h e c a s e , a s i s e x p l o r e d i n C h a p t e r 5.
1 . Systems a n a l y s i s h a s e s t a b l i s h e d a m a j o r c o n t r i b u t i o n t o many problem a r e a s i n mining method e v a l u a t i o n - - f r o m c o a l f a c e d e s i g n t h r o u g h a l l p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s t o c o a l p r e p a r a t i o n . T h e r e have been a v e r y wide number o f a p p l i c a t i o n s , a l t h o u g h o f c o u r s e t h e d e g r e e o f imple- m e n t a t i o n s u c c e s s i n e a c h p a r t i c u l a r problem a r e a v a r i e s
from c o u n t r y t o c o u n t r y .
2 . The t e c h n i q u e s used v a r y by problem a r e a , b u t d e s c r i p t i v e modeling and s i m u l a t i o n models have a c h i e v e d most s i g - n i f i c a n t s u c c e s s , e s p e c i a l l y where emphasis i s p l a c e d on s i m p l i c i t y and c o m m u n i c a b i l i t y .
3 . The major r e s e a r c h a r e a f o r s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s now i s i n how t o combine t h e models o f i n d i v i d u a l sub-problems w h i l e m a i n t a i n i n g t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f c o m m u n i c a b i l i t y .
B1 Method o f i m p r o v i n g t h e e f f i c i e n c y o f l o n g w a l l mining by i n c r e a s i n g t h e u t i l i z a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t o f m i n i n g m a c h i n e s . 1 7 t h APCOM (C55) H . Haas, FRG.
B 2 A p p l i c a t i o n o f c o m p u t e r s f o r p r o g n o s i s o f e a r t h s u r f a c e de- f o r m a t i o n a s a r e s u l t o f m i n i n g . 1 7 t h APCOM (C27)
H. S z c z e p a n e k , P o l a n d .
B3 S t r u c t u r e , m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n and r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h e p r o g n o s t i c a t e d m i n i n g o p e r a t i o n s i n p r o j e c t i n g c o a l m i n e s .
1 7 t h APCOM ( C 1 1 ) A.S. Burchakov, Yu. N . K u z n e t s o v , USSR.
B 4 Computer s i m u l a t i o n o f m u l t i p l e seam m i n i n g . 1 7 t h APCOM ( C 1 0 ) T . I s o b e , K . S a t o , J a p a n .
B5 OR i n N e w Mine P l a n n i n g . 1 6 t h APCOM ( 2 9 ) J . J . Lewis, M . J . S a d n i c k i , U K .
B6 Methods o f c o m p u t e r i s e d s e l e c t i o n of optimum t e c h n o l o g i c a l s o l u t i o n s i n d e s i g n i n g c o a l m i n e s . 1 7 t h APCOM (C13)
M . I . U s t i n o v , L.A. L a k a l t e r , USSR.
B7 Choice o f r a t i o n a l mine development a l t e r n a t i v e p l a n s . 1 7 t h APCOM (C25) M.A. S r e b n y , V.A. Kharchenko, USSR.
B8 An optimum p r o s p e c t i v e c a l e n d a r p l a n n i n g o f m i n i n g o p e r a - t i o n s . 1 7 t h APCOM (C54) A . V . S t a r i k o v , USSR.
B9 Underground c o a l mine modeling--A t o t a l s y s t e m s s i m u l a t i o n a p p r o a c h . 1 7 t h APCOM ( p . 3 9 5 ) R.V. Ramani, C . B . Manula, USA.
B 1 0 Modeling t h e p r o c e s s e s o f f o r m i n g t h e t e c h n o l o g i c a l a n d economic i n d i c e s o f a mine. 1 7 t h AFCOM (C56) A.M. Kurnosov, V.P. S o k o l o v , I . P . Nabrodov, USSR.
B 1 1 F u n c t i o n a l and s t r u c t u r a l s i m u l a t i o n and o p t i m i s a t i o n o f t h e s y s t e m o f e x t r a c t i o n , h e a d i n g and t r a n s p o r t a t i o n m a c h i n e s f o r mines. 1 7 t h APCOM ((237) V . A . B r e n n e r , P.B. S t e p a n o v , USSR.
