Multilevel Computer Model of World Development System: User Oriented Descriptions. A Series: Part VII. Multilayer Decision Model on the Oil-Shortage Crisis for North America

WORLD DEVELOPHENT SYSTEN User Oriented Descriptions

A SERIES: PART VII. MULTILAYER DECISION MODEL ON THE OIL-SHORTAGE CRISIS

FOR NORTH AMERICA GUnther Fischer

October 1975 WP-75-128

Working Papers are not intended for distribution outside of IIASA, and are solely for discussion and information purposes. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect those of IIASA.

CRISIS FOR NORTH AMERICA

In order to demonstrate the conversational use of

multilayer decision models, a model on the decision analysis

of the oil shortage crisis in North America has been implemented.

The basic physical components of such a model are the

interactor and the computer. The computer contains a programme which has two levels: The decision level and the causal level.

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COMPUTER I

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^DECISION

INTERACTOR ^II

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^STRATUM

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- - - - _ _______ L ____

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I _CAUSAL

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DECISION MAKER

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The interactor together with the decision level programme represent the decision making part of the sy3tem. The causal stratum represents the model of the regional economic and the basic energy relationships, as well as a very simple model of population growth to indicate the level of population at any particular time.

The decision stratum contains four levels: The goal layer, the policy layer, the action layer and the implementation layer.

Each of the layers is assigned a specific role.

The lower layers' functions are more technical and concerned with more immediate objectives. The final decision is the result of a coordinated response of all layers. Some information may be found in [5]

GOAL

.. _,

^LAYER

to-

,

~ POLICY LAYER

\V ,I.>

II'

ACTION

INTERACTOR LAYER

1\ i

\~

, H1PLEMENTATION LAYER

,~

ECONOMIC-ENERGY SYSTEM

DECISION STRATUM

CAUSAL STRATUM

Fig. 2

1. THE COMMAND LANGUAGE

The interactor communicates with the computer by means of an elementary command language. The interactor has two basic classes of inputs: Requesting and Instructing. The computer responds by statements in English with desired data.

1.1. Requests

(1) ~~g~~~~~_~QE_~~~QE~~~~Q~_~eQ~~_~~~_~Y~~!~e!~

alternatives

Entering one of the following options the model will reproduce the available alternatives of the

corresponding layer:

G U OPT P U OPT I U OPT IUS U OPT

For goal layer alternatives For policy layer alternatives For action layer alternatives

For implementation layer alternatives.

Remark 1: Blanks occuring in the commands are written as ' LJ '.

They must be typed in exactly; otherwise, the model cannot identify a command properly.

Remark 2: Due to our implementation of the model you will not get any information about available alternatives of the policy, action or implementation layer unless you choose the independence goal.

(2) ~~g~~~~~_~QE_~~~Q~~~~Qg_~eQ~~_~~~_~YQ!~~~Q~_Q~

the model

You enter DA

which must be followed either by NS

if information is needed about the normal situation or by

NEWST

if information is needed about the actual situation or by

PER

if information is needed about the perceived situation PER+DEC

if information is needed about the perceived situation (with decisions implemented)

Then you have to enter either EN

in order to get energy indicators or

ECON

for economic indicators

After that the output of the desired indicators for the specified situation can be produced by typing the RETURN-key < CR >

EXAMPLE

In order to get the energy and economic indicators for normal situation you must enter the following commands:

DA < CR >

NS < CR >

EN < CR >

< CR >

Now the model will print the energy indicators.

DA < CR >

NS

< CR >

ECON <

cn

^>

< CR >

At this the economic indicators will be printed.

1.2. Instructions

If the model asks for decisions on offered alternatives for various layers, you must answer with one of the following instructions:

(a) Decisions on the goal layer:

DEC:UTA DEC:IND DEC:IMP DEC:COP

i.e. Users technology adaption i.e. Independence goal

i.e. Dependence on imports

i.e. International cooperation.

(b) Decisions on the policy layer:

Although the model will offer you four policy options when entering P LJOPT you must answer only with:

DEC:LEI i.e. Limit on economic impact

DEC:TIOS

since the other alternatives are not implemented.

(c) Decisions on implementation measures:

When you enter I UOPT in order to get information about the available alternatives of the action

layer, the model will offer you four alternatives, but you have to answer by typing:

i.e. Transfer of investment from other sectors

since the other alternatives are not implemented.

If you try to specify one of the other alternatives the model will answer with:

INVALID COMMAND - TRY AGAIN

(d) Decisions on Implementation Selections:

At your typing IUS U OPT the model will offer three facilities you may choose:

DEC:LIM DEC:SIT DEC:NYA

i.e. Limit on economic impact

i.e. Sources of investment transfer i.e. Number of years of application.

After having specified your political and implementational goals you may run the model simply by entering:

GO.

At any time you enter GO the model will proceed a time step of three years (or the time step chosen by using DEC:NYA) with an upper limit of year 1990.

(3) !~~~E~£~!2~_~2E_~~~~~E~!~9_~~~_~29~!_~~_~~~_!~!~!~!

~~~E_l~!2Z~l

In order to try another policy you may enter:

TOP

with the effect of restarting the model at the initial year 1975.

In order to terminate a session you must enter:

BYE.

2. NUMERICAL INPUT

Due to your decision on the implementation selection the model will ask you:

FIX LIMIT ON ECONOMIC IMPACT If you have decided on

read with format (II).

DEC:SIT the model will transfer.

DEC:LIM your limit value is In case you have decided on

ask you for changes of investment

CHANGE % OF INVESTMENT SHIFT FROM AGRICULTURE FROM 0 TO:

Your answer is read with format (12).

CHANGE % OF INVESTMENT SHIFT FROM INDUSTRY FROM 100 TO:

Your answer is read with format (12).

CHANGE % OF INVESTMENT SHIFT FROM SERVICES FROM 0 TO:

Again your answer is read with format (12).

REMARK

Due to the present state of the model only the specified value for "Investment shift from industry" of the above specified values has an effect on the computations of the model.

If you have decided on DEC:NYA the model will ask:

HOW MANY YEARS DO YOU WANT THE MODEL TO RUN?

Your decision is read with format (II).

3. NUMERICAL OUTPUT

In order to get some information about the evolution of the model you may ask for energy or economic indicators as described before.

Asking for inergy indicators you get a listing on a period of ten years. The output consists of six columns. The first of which indicates the year of observation, the other five columns have the titles EC,OC,OCM,FOCM,ECPC.

EC OC OCM FOCM:

ECPC:

Total energy consumption (units are 106

metric tons coal equivalent) Total oil consumption

(units are 10⁶ metric tons coal equivalent) Oil imports

(units are 106

metric tons coal equivalent) Ratio of OCM to OC

Energy consumption/capita

(units are metric tons coal equivalent/cap.)

Asking for economic indicators you will get a table consisting of seven columns. The first column again shows the year of observation, the other columns are entitled by Y,YPC,DY,DIE,DYE and FDIE.

Y Gross regional product (units are 109 US $) YPC Gross regional product/capita

(units are 103

US $)

DY Growth rate of GRP; e.g. DY=O.036 indicates a growth rate of 3.6%

DIE Reduction of gross investments due to oil shortage (units are 109

US $)

DYE

FDIE

Reduction of GRP due to oil shortage crisis (units are 109

US $)

=AI/DIE; gross investments compared to investment reduction.

4. HATHEHATICS OF THE CAUSAL STRATUM

In order to simplify the documentation of the mathematics of the model the following notation will be used:

POPt POPR

Q

Total population of the region in year t Population growth rate (=0.011)

GRP of year t predicted according to the available capital of year t (without reduction)

Predicted GRP of year t considering oil crisis Capital available in year t

Depreciation of capital estimated from historical data (=1/35)

Ratio of GRP to available capital estimated from historical data (=1/2.8)

AIt Gross investment in year t (considering oil crisis)

AIMt GI

Gross investments of year t according to YM t Ratio of gross investment to GRP estimated from historical data (=0.18)

Reduction of GRP due to the oil shortage crisis

ECK

Reduction of gross investment due to the oil shortage crisis

Energy consumption need in year t

Ratio of energy consumption to GRP estimated from historical data (=2.8)

Oil consumption need

Time series variable to represent the ratio of oil consumption to total energy consumption.

Starting in 1975 the following values for OCK

t are used:

0.53,0.54,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.60,0.61,0.61,0.62, 0.62,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.58, 0.57,0.56

ECt Energy consumption (due to oil shortage)

OCf1D t :

DECt

Factor denoting energy consumption deficit;

depending on chosen goal

Factor denoting oil consumption deficit Reduction factor for oil consumption Energy deficit

Costs of oil imports Oil imports

Ratio of OCMt to OCNt

Cost of oil import per unit

I

PRR

IPERI

Price growth rate (=0.015)

Ratio of GRP to users' energy consumption assuming a 50% efficiency of energy

system (= ~ ~ GRP1970/EC1970 from hist. data) Change expected in gross investment due to oil shortage

Change expected in gross regional product due to oil shortage

Percentage of investment shift from industry.

(a) Population Model:

There is a very simple demographic model to indicate roughly the level of population

POPt +

l = POP

t • (1 + POPR) (a) Energy and Economic Model:

The economic model assumes a linear relationship between the gross regional product and the available capital. Thus the model is based on the following formulae:

AKt = AKt _

l ^• (1-0) + Al t _

l YMt = Q • AKt

AIMt = GI

•

^YM_t

Yt = YM

t - OYE t Alt = GI ^• Y

t - DIE t

In order to compute DYEt and DIEt the following relationships are used:

ECNt

=

^ECK

•

^YM_t

OCNt

=

^OCK_t

·

^ECNt

OCt

=

^{(1 - OCMD}_t ⁾

•

OCNt EC

. =

ECDK

t ^• ECN t t

OCMt

=

^OCMK_t

.

OCNt DECt

=

^ECN_t

-

^EC_t

PRt

=

PR t _

l ^• (1 + PRR) YOMt

=

PR

t

.

_OCM

t

GOAL DYEK • DEC. t UTA DYEt

=

DYEK • DECt IND

YOMt IMP

a

COP

GOAL AIM/EC • DEC IPERI

factor UTA

.

₁₀₀

.

DIEt = AIM/EC

.

DEC

.

^IPERI

.

_{factor IND}

100

a

IMP

a

COP

To run the model a file called OIL.D or OIL.DAT for UNIX and DOS respectively is needed which contains the command dictionary and a time-series describing the ratio of oil consumption to total energy consumption.

6. CONCLUSIONS

The model on the oil shortage crisis for North America described above is rather to be looked at as a demonstration model for the use of multilayer decision models, since there are quite a lot of rather rough assumptions as well as the

fact that there is only a small part of the available alternatives implemented using only very limited implementation selections.

Nevertheless, the model could be used to show the interaction between man and the computer in order to demonstrate the

facilities of decision supports such a model could offer to the interactor.

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GO T

a (

1~ ~J?, 5

c:

Z1, 1,,)'" 2 , 7'.1 ~), Ir,0AL

____.5~0 1 GOTQ (b~J2. , be~2, b~ ~\2, b ;, ? 6~)0 2), I POL.

6QIel2 GOT0 (70^(:12, 7ft'\02 • I "":<J2, H~ c?), I1'1f.S

_ _7:302_GO T-O -(B~~l,- 80~2, 12) ,IMPS __ - .

8001 CUNTINut

INVESTMENT

SHIFT FROM SERVIC~S F~OM'

KN,PRNJPOPN~YLN,INCRIIGQAL,3,

T,V~T,YPCRT,OYRT,OV~RT,OIEQT,FOI~RT) KN,PQN,POPN,VLN,INCR,IGO_L,~,

T,YPT,YPCPT,OYPT,UYEPT,UlfPT,FDIEPT)

&

_ _ _ ___PHl~T _1 tz!5.. ~ .._. _

105 FO~MAT(lH .1,5~,·FIX

LIMIT N ECONOMIC

IMPACT:-)

_ _ _ _ _ _ RI:.AD q2 4, I P~ ~8 _ _ ~__. __.._~ . . _.._ . . . _ q24 FORMAT (11)

_ _-,Qc.o..22__f Q~MAT ( 1 2 1 - - - . - - - - . _

IPF.R=S

_______ GOT!) 999 ~ _

8(2102 CONTINUF.

PRINT_ 620,lPERA _ _ _ _ _ _ _

620 FO~NAT(lH .1,~x,fCHANGE X 0 INVESTMENT SHIfT FROM AGRICU(TURE F',

& 'RO~,·_,i3^I p: " TO: ") ^{m _ _ _ _ n •} . _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . _ ._ _

R~AO 922,

IPERA

_______ PRINT h?1, IPEr- I _

621 FORMAT(l~ .1,~X,·CiiANG~ ~ 0 - INVESTMENt SHIFT FRtiMINDUSTRY FkO~"

_ _=&.1.

1

X , 13^I 1XI ' T~: " ) READ Q2?-, IPF.RI

______ __ _ PRINT n^{22I I P}F.:R5 _

622 FORf1AT(1r1 ,1,5X,'CtiANl1f. ~ 0

_____,, , 13, 1X , ,TO: ' ) _

REAL) <1?2,Ir'E~S

_________ GOTO ^qqq 5~eJ2 C0~TI^r-.IUF:

C-LL RUN(IAY~,OCM0],A~T~AN, ~~,p~~.POPN,Yl~,INCR,IGOAL,l,

ECAT,^IICAT, 0 C~1A1 , FIJCMAT,1:C10'C

r,

YAT, 'rpeAT , uYAT,^I,.)YEA T , DI t:: AT, FDIE AT)

IOAY~=IAYlo?

IAYR=lAYQ+HJCR

_ _c

^{~,tEJ(T CyCL.E _ _ _}

DX=IAv~-lQ75+1

_____ . P1=P2

P2~P3

_ _ _ _ _----'P.3:~3+P.3

*

0.~,5 ~ ._^{u _ _}

DO 503 I.l,2~

_____________ J=I · \ - (INr.~+I 'JCRt)

OCMD1(I):OCMO!rIXt)+J*Pl ____ OCMtJ2(lJ =oeJ'[) 3(!:I(:()+J*r?

OCMr3(r)=OCMD~(IXX)+J~P3

____ 5.03 _CO~Tt~UE

I~C~l=INC~l·I~C~

j;.ALL_Rll~ t!J\yR. ocr101,A"T~ArJ,

&

ECRT,nCWT,ocMRT,FOCM~T,~CPC

_______. CALL 1~1I\J (IA HI,GCt.1;)..?, b. ,;_T~AI"

& ECPT, l1CPT,OC^f1PT, FQC;1PT,f;CPC ______ GOlf) _Hl

11 C

....C_ _-,-Rfb.O_ IN. AND QfCODE A Cn.r-I/'HN C

_ _9L-9L--'9---lL LE:.G

=

~_

. ---

IUA= ... ~LSf..

_ _ _ _ _...1 NS

=

I DJ\ _ INW.!NS

I U::j i "

ItCr~J=It>-j

_______lPR=ItCON

IPioiCi=IP~

CON TIN UE __~___ __

PRl~T

650

TO THf PROPER ~AYER

- - - _ . _ - - - - _ . _ - - - -

- - - - .----_._----_._-- .-

-- --~--- --_._--- - - - ------ -------

MAY

23 15:11 OIL-FORTRAN PAGE 5

- - - . - . - -- - - ^--'-- --- --.- ---- ._--_^.._-_._--^~- . _ - _ . _ - - - -..-..

- i 81

73

b3

bl bO

8t>

82

84 8S

C

6

72

&23

_____b5~L _FOR~1AT (lH , - -)

READ 13.33,11,12 ___---.13.33 f QRM AT (2A4) _

DO 33 1=1, NDlCT

_________I F! (11.I::(~. I DI[t_(1,I) ) •

_ANO. ( 2. EO. UH eTC

2Ll)JJ__GJJTO__~_

33 CO:-Jrl~HI~ ---~--- - -

_______'H0_ ILLEG=ILLFG+1 IF (lLLEG-:S)5,5,5

_ _ .5 PftIiH 1044 _ _ _ __

10Qq FOR~ATll, 10~, -INVALID COM

AND-TRY AGAIN')

_____________ GOTU'11 _

'l tCf>1DL=~,J!)L ( I )

____________ .L

c

~~0

=

^N

n

^{I. N}( 0 - - - _ _ _ C COM~lA..\IDS

______________IC~1=ICM[)L+1 _ _ _

GO iO CR, 4i'11, 402, _~L<J3,

if" ,

^{tq", 410, 410, 410),ICM}

GENE~AL COMMANDS

GO TO PH, 82, 83,84, 85, b,e7,77,S~~2,b0~(1);LeMQ

PRI~T ~23 _

FORMAT(lH ,1,5~,-HOW MANY YAkS

DO

YOU-~~NTT"~

MdOEL TO RUN ,-)

READ 73,t^NCR

FOf\iHT ( !1) __________ GOTO qqg

I(}A&.T~UE.

GO TO 11 If"S=•T^I.;>IJE • GO TO 11 INw;.T"L1£.

GO TO 11

IEN:.T~!JE..

___ GO Tall If.CQN=.TRUt.

. GO TO 11

IPQ:.TRUE:.

GUT(J 11

IPRli=.TRIJE.

_ _~__ [;OTO 11 _

IF(I~S.ANU.IEN) Goru 92

________ I

F.:CI

~JSI ~N L'I lEe 0~)~J T0_

q.3

_~

_

IF(IN~.AND.IE~) GOTe q7

_~___

___ . I F CI

,'IJ \./ • .1 N () •

I

f:

C

^{QN )}

GOT n 9

B

IF(!Ft{.~\JI).rr::"') GUill 9q IF(IPR.AND.IECON) GOTQ

&2

IF(IPRO.A~O.IEN) GUTn b!

_ _ _~_ ._ IF!.lf'jo(j) .. ANl) • I ECO~)_ GaTo...._~4_____ __ _ ....

q2

PRINT

1033

1".5 3 F'0R"" AT (2fl)(, -Df VELUP'"EN T A AI,YSIS:

'J PRINT

1~3i.l

_ _ _....10_3JLfO~MAL(22)(1-_--~!QR.Ml\,.uS]T_UA.T_O~!.l .. ..

fJr;T~JT l~S'5

____Hl,S5FUR~C,T(22X, ~·t"~€Io.'L·T it,U!eA 0 ..$') P~I"T 1~~36

___ ___l~~.b_FO~.~ATUII, .J_5X,_~EC_~_,_J'';Jlt __~_OC_.!., lcn, -OC,.C"_1_1_~X_,~f_OJ:~

__, '-

q

& )(, -ECPC -)

. MlAyI'i_

=

1 AYrit 1ia ._ _. - ---,'- _

DO 4~ IYR=IAVR, ~IAV~

--~---_._-~---~-~._-- -

OCAT(I),

oeMATCI),

FaCMAT(i)~

ECPC

__________ I : IY~- I AY~

+

1 - -

PRINT 1037, IYR, ECRT(I)

OCRT(I),

OCMRTCI), FUCMRT(I),

---<lJ-& _--£CPC~l(Il .-- --- - -----~---__

1037 FURMAT(lH

,IS,

8fI3,3'

--'--_---4-Il tONT I

NU£--- --- ---- ---~---. ---

GOla ⁹⁹⁹

___---93 ---PR1NT----1~3 3 ------~----- --- ---..~--- --~----.--__~_.

P~INT tv:l3q

_---PHltiT-- -~~ ,1la38---- --~~ --- ~ -- ---.---~---

1038 FORMA~(22~;'-EtONOMICINDlC

TORS')

-PRINT _1~4.9 --- - --- ----.- --- _

1 0 4 9 FUR~i^{AT (II I,} 15It, , ., ' , 1eI X "fPC', 10 )(, • 0 Y " 10 X, • 0 I E,~

-1

~

)(

& -I- _,0Iff •,_12')(,_~LOI~2 .~__

_ __

MIAYR=IAYfo<+10l

__~ OO 55 IYR=IAYR,_ ~l1AYR ~~~_. ~ ._ ._ ...._.~~__~~_~_._... ~~_

I=IYf("IAY~+1

_______ 5S__ PRINT- 1l('37L_1YR, __Y}(lUJ_LJ~C:~T(I), DY_RT

lI),

JUERJCI) _{,_DYE~l}(

& I), FnIERTCI)

~~

__________ LiOTO _999 ~__~ .__~ ----~--~- ~- ~~~--..~--.-- ~-~~--- --~-_~_~_..~_. ~__~~

91

PRINT 1033

_~______ _PR I "IT 103q _

1039 FORMAT(~2X,'-ACTUALSlTUATI N')

_ __~RINT 1_03^5. ~ ~~

PRINT \~3b

~ ~~ AY~: IUA YR+ \0 _

00 b

Iv~=IOAYR,HIAy~

____ _ I.I Y~-ID.A_yR+ 1 _

b _PRI~T 1037, lY~,

ECAT(I)

_______

^{e._~ AT (I)}

GOTD

999

_____~8. P RrN

L___

1033

P~II'IIT lril3q _____________ PRI'"T 1038

P~II\IT HHl9' __________ MIAYR

=

lOA^V~+HJ _

DO 7 Iv~DIOAVR, MIAVR I-IYR-IOAYR+l

---~~-7---PRINT -12137, IYR, YAT(Ij~- YPCATCI), DVAT(I)~-(JIfAtrI)~-OYEAT(

____~_ _. I), F^r)TEATUJ_~_~

:

.~_~

GOTU

qq9

_____9~_ P RINT ~ 1V'3 3 __~___ ~___ _ _ _ p~p ..T lv' " 0

1050 FO~HAT(22X,--PEMCEIVtOSIT lTlu~')

- - -':.--=-=-=----P R-t

NT 10 3 S- - - ---. - - - ---- - - -

PRINT 1~36 _

- - -"Et-0-r-,.fl

^4.v~f=1 Ay_~

+

¹~

_~ ._. DO 6;'il IY~:IAV~,~IA'(R

I=IYR-YAVR+l

6 0~_ PRINT t037~lY.R,_E CPT _( I) ,QCPT

1J,

⁰CMP T

ct.

^{t, fJtC}

i"

P

r_o ,--,_

^ECPCPT(l

t

G()T!i Y9Q

.... bL_P HI NT 1"':S 3~ ---~

PRP~T 105~

________.__ J.R I~T_10 3B

PR!NT

^104q

- 602l'1I~.·tR.lAVR't10 ---- -- --- --- ---- --.--- _

DO

&01 IVR.IAYR,HI~Y~

HAy 23 15:11 OIL-FCRTQAN PAGE 7

&

-..--

_ __ _ _ 1=1YR- IAYRt1 _ _ _ _ __ ^{0 _}

b~l P~I\T 1~~7,IVP,VPT(I),VPCPT I),OYPTCI),~IEPT(I),OYEPT(I),

& f r HP T(11

'H,i;J g44

_ _----"~~_pRINT _1033 . . . . _

~klINT H~5~

PR11\1T 1~'b 0

10b0 ~ll~t",AT (~2)(,"·Dt::CISION I1"1Pl.E EI.Tt.O') _ _ _ _ _ER.l~JT_J_f35 .. .__. . .

P~INT '_G36

__ . __ CAL L RLIN (1AVR , 0 C1'-1f)

c,

^At\T~hN, It'(~,p~~", POPN , YLN, Ir~C10( , IGOAL ,0 ,

&

ECPT,OCPT,QC~PT,FDCMPT,lCPC T,VPT,Vpc~T,nvPT,ovtPT,OlEPT,FDIEPT)

____________ b(lTU 603 64 FRINT 1~33

_________ Ph'INT. 1~5 0

PRINT 1060

p~P"T 1~38 .

P;..>!t'IT 1t14q

CALL

HU~)(IAY~,OCMD2,A~TQAN, KN,~~N,POPN,YLN,INC~,lGOAL,0,

ECP1 , L'U'T , () C;" P T , FiolL:r~ ~ 1 , t CpeT, '( PT , YFe P T , ^LJVP T , Dn. P T , ^f)H. P T ,

F()

I

EP

T,---- GOTe] ~('I2

77 CONTINUE.

_ _ _ _ _ _ 5

T

⁰

t..._____________ _ . _ END

_____ ._________ _ 5 UB~⁽¹UTIr-. E. "L'j\, ( I tJ. i " , LIf:'~'()T . /.~i ~:.

s ,

^AK.S , Pf./S , POPS , YL5 , INC~, IGOAL. , I FL

& ,f CT , 0 CT , [) C1'1T , Ff)CMT , !:CP [T , Y- , VpeT ,t'VT , ~YET ,D1

t:

T ,F1)I E1 ) - - ---- .- -- -- --- __________0____ D I ME NSI_Dr~ (lC rIDT (2~) ,

o

^{no· ( 6),t}CT (2b) , C'C T_(~b) , OCMTC26) ,FOCM~12_61J _

&

ECPCT(?h),YT(2~),VPCT(?~"n T(?-~),nYf.T(?6),DI~T(2b),FDI~T(26]

C_OM~HH, fJ,(d , n_~ ECK ,DeK

r ,

^{l1C[It< ,} UY 1:1<, P R_~ , AK TI(K; 0 I_E~ . . . _ C()'-w0t\. (;C , C;G, (.~\, P 0^jJI(

C^(Ir-qA

n

N ~K , AlI"I , P^{Q ,} AKH'^AC, 0 C C(~/1I"i^(J"i L,r_~,AM, X

__________ COMr--i01\l_ E:.C,nc~, V, VL,nIt,DYE, I

COM~:

a

NIP^E:.R, I PEto(A, l Pt:.r<I , I Pf. S

c

- - - -- - - ~ - -

POP.p·OPS

____~ VL-

= v

L.5 _

AKEAKS

___________ Pf.!

=

^{P R& _} __~ ~ . . ._.______0 . ._. __ .. _

AKTRACEAKTRAS

c

- - - - - --- - - - ---- - -

~lIA VR

=

^{1A Yr.t+1 0}

________ DO 4'1 1 VR= I AYR~~AYlL . _

!=!YR·IAVR·1

CAL L f.C 0 t-tRIIGO~L.J.QCJ"1P_ll-l.Y.RJ. _

E.CT(1)=I:.C

_____________ e'er

⁽¹⁾ EUC____ _ .. . _

OC~IT (I)=OC'"

.F0C~J (I)

= per,

I.0 C .~ .

ECPCT(I)EEC/POP

______~ YT(1) EY . ^{0 _}

YfJCT(I,~v/POP

DVT (1)

=

(y.YL)/-yL---.---.-- ---.---.---.- . _

DYET(J)·OYE

DIET ( I ) :;01L--- ------~---._--- ---.

IF(DI~·1.E·a) 5,5,&

- - - ---~---

Vf-I) )

oeD ,,-F, {.jYEIt" Pw~,AKTRK, _0 I EK . _

- - - -

- - - -

-- - - - - - --- -- - - - - ----5---F 0 lEi (I)

::r .. --- --- -.--- .-- --- -- -.---

--~---

---- --- _

GCTO 7

r;-'_Tf T(T)=I>.I/!~If:.

CONT !".JlJE

---.--~V-l..--..Ky--- -------~------.---._--- At<.ctd(* (1.-0)+AI

---.- P0F ::PUF

*

(1. +PuPR)--

atNt~=lAY~+INCR-l

. _ __ 1F( lH' • "':' • Et.^l\,CH) (,0Tu ~9 HCHL.NE.l) r,OTO '19 AKS=AI'."

AKTRAS=AKTRAC

PFtS=Pk

VLS~VL

_____ _poPScPoP _

9q C(ll\l TINLJt _ __________ RE.i lir<N .

ENO

5 Uh '"0 l'TIN [ E

c:

^()rJR (1(, , (; U:D , D1~1U, SIllN ()CtiL) ( (lbJ ,I)C'" ~ ( 2

_____. CQ~iP~Ot.; (~, GI, D, tC"', (jCt,F, C0"1_~10/1^{1 [;}C, ["G, G"'i, '" 0I-' R

______ CO"1Mn", A~, AIM, p~, A"T~AC, QC C

n

r"H-',I)I\;

c, r"

H', )(

_________C0 MM0 '" EC, 0 C1<\ , Y , YL ,(lH. ,DYE, I

COMHO~ IPEH,IPtRA,lP~~I,IPE S

____.c _

YM=Q",AK

_______ AI

H

= ^GI *

vr~

GuTU (1,2,3,3),JG

.c

^{C0r-.5 ERIJATIn'J r,o _A L _}

1 t:t:N=ECO<*YM

. __ . __ (ICK :: UCI<F(I V~-1q14)

OCt-.I=OCK *ECN

__________ CJCDr\

=

^{DC(' K}r- •0 C:1[l (I Y_~- 19 7 4 )

OC=OCUlt,,*OCN

OCMK=(~.2/25.).(IVk·l~1~).0 10

--- ^OC~l=OCMK.oeN - - . - . -.-- ---.

EC[\K:(JCOK

- - - - ------

€c&t:COI<*ECN lHC=ECN-t(.

- - - -

DVf=DVEI<*DEC

DIE:a ••

(AIM/EC).DEC.AI~(l., .3,IVR,1985)

---GOTO iV'l~

- - - - --- ---

C INDEPE~OENCE GOAL

-- --- 2 - -

E CN

=

ECIC- '"YM

_______ 0 CIt

=

0 CKF(1YR. 1

en

^{4 )}

OC~I=OCj(... ECN

Or.DK=aCD~F·OCMO(IVR-Sq74)

--- OC="OCDK*OCN . . ---

OCM~=(~.2/?~.)"'(IVR-1475)+0S~

---. -- -- n^CM

=

^{0 Cr~ ~} •^{UCN - .}

ECnK=AIG(DCO~,1.,IYR,lq75+I ER)

---.---.- - Et=l:COK*ECN ---~ - -

OEC:ECN-EC - - - . - - - 0

v

E

=

^{0 YEK •-0 EC}

_ .. _--" -- . _ -~_ --- • .• . "4_' __.. _. .. . .__

MAY 23 15:11 OI~-FORTRAN PAGE 9

- - - - _ .__._-~~_._--_._~---

31

____'-- ~ DIE:~..^It(A I!"1/E.C) 'DE C*A.I G(1.,_.3, IYRJ 1985L ._"-- _

GOT 0 1VJ0 ---,,-.

C NOijMAL DfV~LDPMENT GOhL

3 ~ L~

=

^E::C'" , y~1

_ _ _ _ _ OC^I(~OCI'f. (1..1.R~j'lLQ

OCNaOCI(*ECN

________________ DC~(leN _ __

EC~ECN

.OC1~ ~I: (".2/25.)~11 Yl<~ 1_cH5_1~0__HL __

OCMaOCMK*OC __ . .P\o(cPRII'{1. +PRR)

yC'M:PR*OCf1

____________ GUlD (31,,31,31,,'1),1(;

OVE-YOM

_ _ _ _ _ OIE.ak}... _ GOlD H~0

C

COUPfR~TI0N GOAL _ 4 AKTk:AKTRK*YOM

____~~ j, K T RAecA^KTRAe+.AK1£oL . .__ ._

Fi(~:A"TRAC/AK.

___ _ _ _ _0yE^I:0 ._ __ __ __ _ OH.1l0.

_ _ _Ui~L__YI:Yf-',-OY~ -~-_. _

OI~=CI~*(IPERl/1~C) ____ . AI •r-I

*

Y- 0 If.

C=GC*V

__~--_.--G=Gc:.~y- _ _... . .. ....__~_.__. . ._. _

AM=GM*Y

_________ .__ x:Y-C-G-AI ...AM Pl:TURN

__~____ f N0 __

FUNCTION AIG(_1,X2,Iy~,IV~1

___ . ~ I F ( I YR-1 YH1) 1,2_, 2

1 AIG=Xl

______...3. . R

t.

TURN . __._._. _ _

2 AIGcX2

__GOlD ..3 __. . -~ . _---_. . _ . . _

END

----~---_._-. - - - - -._._--^---

_.

^~---_.._ - - - -

- - -- - - -

References

[1] Oehmen, K.H., and Paul, W. IIConstruction of Population Submodels. ^u IIASA Symposium Proceedings SP-74-3, pp. B362-B480.

[2] Clapham, W.B., Shook, T., and Warshaw, M.W. rrA

Regionalized Food Model for the Global System."

IIASA Symposium Proceedings SP-74-3, pp. B500-B554.

[3] Mesarovic, M.D., Richardson, J.M. Jr., Shook, T., and Warshaw, M.W. liThe Structural Description and Sensitivity Analysis of the Food Submodel."

IIASA Symposium Proceedings SP-74-3, pp. B556-B626.

[4] Gottwald, M., and Pestel, R. "Environmental Impact Assessment. II IIASA Symposium Proceedings SP-74-5 pp. B1122-B1276.

[5] Rechenmann, F. "Conversational Use of Multi-Layer Decision Models. ^II IIASA Symposium Proceedings SP-74-6, pp. C232-C246.

[6] Cardenas, M.A., and Huerta, J.M. "Submodel of Global Water Cycle on Regional Basis." IIASA Symposium Proceedings SP-74-5, pp. B1278-B1391.

[1]

Heyes, R.P., Jerdonek, R.A., and Kuper, A.B. "Global Energy Submodel." IIASA Symposium Proceedings SP-74-5, pp. B1084-B1119.

[8] Bossel, H. "Energy Supply Submodel." IIA5A Symposium Proceedings SP-74-4, pp. B834-B970.