Time Patterns of Technological Choice Options

NOT FOR QUOTATION

WITHOUT THE PERMISSIOK OF THE AUTHOR

TIME P A m N S OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHOICE OPTIONS

C e s a r e Marchetti

December 1985 WP-85-86

Invited paper presented a t t h e Conference on R m e Preference

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INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

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The a n a l y s i s of t h e b e h a v i o r of individual a n d s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n s , defined as g r o u p s of individuals informationaliy c o n n e c t e d , r e v e a l s u n s u s p e c t e d dynamic sta- bility o v e r t h e l i f e of t h e individual or t h e institution. This implies t h e p r e s e n c e of c l o c k s , if n o t p h y s i c a l , at least psychological, as t h i s s t a b i l i t y a c t u a l l y h a s time as a n i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e .

The b e h a v i o r i s mostly m e a s u r e d by p h y s i c a l o u t p u t s , p a i n t i n g s by p a i n t e r s , cars by car m a k e r s , o r c a t h e d r a l s by r e l i g i o u s g r o u p s .

In t h e case of t e c h n o l o g i c a l o p t i o n s i t a p p e a r s t h a t t h e c r e a t i v e f o r c e s are t u n e d to s o c i e t a l pulses.

TIME PATTERNS OF TECHNOLOGICAL CHOICE OPTIONS

C. Marchetti

Time is a central element in our perception and organization of the external world. It also appears to have a central role in the operation of society and its subsets. What I will show is that the relations can be put in a quantitative form, holding stable for a life span or for a thousand years. This implies the existence of "clocks" also at the level of a society, perhaps better qualified as a "cultural structure".

Over the fact that time flow is so quintessential to our selfperception and to what we experience through our sensory

channels and vicarious informational channels, so much literature has been generated that it doesn't seem the case to add a word more, unless it is a really new one. What I can add is that we appear to operate quantitatively in a time cage, with a limited play for the frills of the f r e e w < l Z . The examples I will give about personal behavior are taken from people which for some reason have been quantified by society. E.g., an artist or a scientist whose output has been studied, organized and put into catalogs.

The very interesting thing is that the t i m e p a t t e r n s in

the production of these works always follow the same simple func- tional relationship. Because the parameters of the function can be calculated using a partial set of data, e.g., the production of 15 years, we can use the equation in a predictive mode, i.e., calculate how many works a certain artist will produce and when.