W O R K I N G P A P E R
BRAZn.rAN DATA
B M E
FORTHE GLOBAL FOREST SECTOR
MODEL
I n t e r n a t i o n a l l n s t l t u t e for Applied Systems Analysis
NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOLT PZRXISSIO !Y
OF THE AUTHOR
BEtAZZJAN DATA BASE FOR
THE GLOBAL FOREST SECTOR MODEL
Alf r e d o !usern
W o r k i n p R z p e r s a r e interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International I z s t i t u t e f o r Applied Svstems Ana!ysis and have r e c e i v e d o n l r Lim- ited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n do not neces- sari!^ r e p r e s e ~ t t h o s e of t h e Institute o r of its Yationa! Member Organizations.
IYTERYATION
AL
INSTITLE FOR A F P L I D SYSTEYS ANALYSIS 2361 L a x e n b u r g . AustriaThe objective of t h e F o r e s t S e c t o r P r o j e c t at IIASA is t o study long- t e r m development a l t e r n a t i v e s for t h e f o r e s t s e c t o r o n a global basis. The emphasis in t h e P r o j e c t i s on issues of major r e l e v a n c e to industrial and governmental policy m a k e r s in different repions of t h e world who are responsible for forestry policy, forest industrial s t r a t e g y , and r e l a t e d t r a d e policies.
The key elements of s t r u c t u r a l change in t h e forest industry are r e l a t e d t o a v a r i e t y of issues concerning demand, supply, and international t r a d e of wood p r o d u c t s . Such issues include t h e development of t h e global economy and population, new wood p r o d u c t s and substitution for wood pro- d u c t s , f u t u r e supply of roundwood and a l t e r n a t i v e f i b e r sources, technology development for f o r e s t r y and industry, pollution r e g u l a t i o n s , c o s t competi- tiveness, t a r i f f s and non-tariff t r a d e b a r r i e r s , etc. The aim of t h e P r o j e c t is to analyze t h e consequences of f u t u r e expectations a n d assumptions con- cerning such substantive issues.
The r e s e a r c h p r o g r a m of t h e P r o j e c t includes an a g g r e g a t e d analysis of long-term development of international t r a d e in wood p r o d u c t s , a n d t h e r e b y analysis of t h e development of wood resources, forest industrial production and demand in d i f f e r e n t world regions. The analysis is c a r r i e d o u t employing a global forest s e c t o r model f o r which t h i s a r t i c l e r e p r e s e n t s t h e Brazilian d a t a .
Markku Kallio P r o j e c t L e a d e r
F o r e s t S e c t o r P r o j e c t
CONTENTS
1 . INTRODUCTION
2 . GENERAL SOCIOECONOMIC INDICATORS 3 . CONSUMPTION OF FOREST SECTOR PRODUCTS
3.1 Fuelwood
3.2 O t h e r F o r e s t S e c t o r P r o d u c t s
4. PRICES OF FIXAL PRODUCTS OF THE FOREST SECTOR 5. DEMAND FUNCTIONS
6 . FOREST RESOURCES (PLANTATIONS) 6 . 1 P l a n t e d A r e a
6.2 Yields
7. 1980 PRODUCTION AXD CAPACITY 0 . INPUT-OLPUT INFORMATION 9 . COST STRUCTURE
9 . 1 S i l v i c u l t u r a l Costs 9.2 Harvesting Costs
9.3 Mechanical W o o d P r o d u c t i o n 9.4 Input Costs
9.5 T r a n s p o r t a t i o n
9.6 Summary of P r o d u c t i o n Costs 1 0 . EXPORTS
11 SUBSIDIES AND TARIFFS 1 2 . FUTURE PERSPECTIVES
APPENDIX REFERENCES
BRAZILTAN
DATA
BASE FOR THE GLOBAL FOREST SECTOR MODELAlfredo Iusem
1. INTRODUCTION
The Global T r a d e Model (GTM) developed by t h e F o r e s t S e c t o r P r o j e c t at IIASA [8] includes Brazil as o n e of t h e r e g i o n s in its g e o g r a p h i c a l a g g r e - gation.
Though Brazilian p a r t i c i p a t i o n in t h e world m a r k e t of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s is s t i l l minor, i t i s widely recognized t h a t t h e c o u n t r y h a s t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r a l a r g e i n c r e a s e in such p a r t i c i p a t i o n . On t h e p r o d u c t i o n s i d e , t h e huge expansion of planted areas d u r i n g t h e s e v e n t i e s o p e n e d t h e way f o r t h e g r a - d u a l substitution of e x o t i c s p e c i e s (pinus and e u c a l y p t u s ) f o r n a t u r a l f o r e s t trees (e.g. a r a u c a r i a ) , which will conclude with t h e v i r t u a l elimination of commercial exploitation of t h e natural s u b t r o p i c a l f o r e s t by t h e e n d of the c e n t u r y . This expansion will make i t possible f o r Brazil t o become a l a r g e e x p o r t e r of sawnwood, pulpwood a n d p a p e r . A t the same t i m e , s e v e r a l a s p e c t s in t h e c u r r e n t s i t u a t i o n of t h e f o r e s t sector cast some d o u b t s o n i t s a b i l i t y t o fulfill s u c h p r o s p e c t s . They r a n g e f r o m s e r i o u s b o t t l e n e c k s at some c r i t i c a l points (e.g. t r a n s p o r t a t i o n ) to t h e v e r y s e v e r e c o n s e q u e n c e s of t h e r e c e s s i o n Brazil h a s b e e n going t h r o u g h s i n c e t h e e a r l y e i g h t i e s . whose e f f e c t s o n t h e f o r e s t s e c t o r will l a s t f o r a long t i m e , e v e n assuming t h a t t h e economy s t a r t s its r e c o v e r y q u i t e soon. Financial r e s o u r c e s f o r c a p a c i t y e x p a n s i o n h a v e b e e n c u r t a i l e d , low r e l a t i v e p r i c e s of w o o d h a v e c a u s e d l a r g e p l a n t a t i o n s t o remain unexploited, a n d t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of technological innovation h a s b e e n delayed.
On t h e demand s i d e , t h e high rates of i n c r e a s e f o r all f o r e s t p r o d u c t s o b s e r v e d d u r i n g t h e s e v e n t i e s t u r n e d i n t o v i r t u a l s t a g n a t i o n at t h e begin- ning of t h e c u r r e n t d e c a d e . S i n c e demand f o r s e v e r a l p r o d u c t s is highly
c o r r e l a t e d to t h e performance of t h e economy a t Large, d i f f e r e n t forecasts of t h e time location of t h e turning point and t h e speed of t h e subsequent r e c o v e r y ied to widely d i f f e r e n t p i c t u r e s of t h e demand side by t h e end of t h e time horizon of GTM.
In t h e following sections t h e d a t a b a s e f o r t h e Brazilian r e g i o n of t h e GTK is p r e s e n t e d . The d a t a were obtained from published s o u r c e s and con- sultations with e x p e r t s and p r o d u c e r s . The assistance of Dr. Joldes Muniz F e r r e i r a (IPF/USP/ESALQ) and D r . R o b e r t o Samanez Mercaao and h i s team a t IF/UFFRJ w a s vital f o r t h e completion of t h i s work.
The appendix contains t h e l i s t of abbreviations used t o g e t h e r with t h e i r expanded meaning in P o r t u g u e s e and t h e i r English translation.
2.
GENERAL
SOCIOECONOMC INDICATORSThese time s e r i e s have been used f o r estimation of demand functions and production costs of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s (Table 1 ) .
9. CONSUMPTION OF POBEST SECTOR PRODUCTS
9.1 F u e l w o o d
T h e r e are no r e l i a b l e estimates of fuelwood consumption. This i s d u e p a r t l v t o t h e f a c t t h a t most fuelwood does not g o through organized market channels, e i t h e r because i t is c u t d i r e c t l y by t h e consumer from n a t u r a l f o r e s t s (e.g. most rural consumption for residential use) or b e c a u s e p l a n k - tions used exclusively f o r fuelwood are p a r t of t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l or indus- t r i a l e n t e r p r i s e s which use t h e fuel. Nevertheless, fuelwood r e p r e s e n t s , in volume, t h e l a r g e s t end use of f o r e s t p r o d u c t s in Brazil. Table 2 shows esti- mates of fuelwood consumption calculated by t h e National Energy Balance.
These f i g u r e s a r e indirectly estimated and s u b j e c t t o an error p e r h a p s as high as 40%. I t is believed t h a t they a r e more likely t o overestimate r a t h e r t h a n underestimate r e a l consumption.
T h e r e a r e a l s o some d a t a available on fuelwood which goes through m a r k e t channels. They c o r r e s p o n d t o firewood sold by silvicultural e n t e r - p r i s e s r e g i s t e r e d with t h e IBDF (Brazilian Institute f o r F o r e s t Develop- ment). They are s u b j e c t t o errors possibly of t h e same o r d e r of magnitude as t h e d a t a in Table 1, though in t h i s c a s e underestimation is more likely (Table 3).
9.2 Other F o r e s t Sector Products
Data on p a p e r p r o d u c t s consumption are highly reliable. Data on sawn- wood and panels, adjusted versions of F A 0 estimates are of a lower quality.
They have been r e v i s e d by IBDF and f u r t h e r adjusted following t h e opinion of f o r e s t e x p e r t s . The split between coniferous and nonconiferous sawn- wood i s subject t o some d e g r e e of c o n t r o v e r s y (Table 4).
TARLE
1. Demand functlons and production costs of f o r e s t products..(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17)
Year CNP FXR DLF CPI IPI MA1 PRC PllC POP RVR ILR LAB WAC OIP ELP NPP TVU
. S e e n e x t page f o r explnnatlon o f a b b r e v l a t l o n a .
Inand sources
Exp ianatia 1. GNP:
2. EXR:
3. DEF:
4. CPI:
5. IPI:
6. MAI:
7. PRC:
8 . PUC:
9 . POP:
11. ILR:
1 LAB:
13. WAG:
1 4 . OIP:
Gross National P r o d u c t (Cruzeiros/capita). S o u r c e : CE (June 1970, Dec. 1979, Dec. 1980, Mar. 1982).
Exchange R a t e (Cruzeiros/Dollar). Source:
CE
(Oct. 1968, Dec. 1974, Jan. 1984).GNP Deflator (X, 1980
=
100.0). W e have t a k e n t h e IGP (Gen- e r a l P r i c e Index), a n aggregation of wholesale, consumer, a g r i c u l t u r a l and s e r v i c e s p r i c e s , plus construction costs, con- sidered as t h e most r e l i a b l e inflation indicator. S o u r c e : CE (Oct. 1968, Dec. 1974, Jan. 1984).Consumer P r i c e Index (X, 1980
=
100.0) S o u r c e : CE (Jan 1984).Index of General Industrial Production (X, 1980
=
100.0) Source: CE (June 1970, Dec. 1979, Dec. 1980, Mar. 1982).Index of Manufacturing Activity (X, 1980
=
100.0). Source CE.(Mar. 1973, Mar. 1983).
Total P r i v a t e Consumption (Cruzeiros/capita/year) S o u r c e : CE (Dec. 1981, Feb. 1981).
Total Public Consumption (Cruzeiros/capita,'year) S o u r c e : CE (Dec. 1981, Feb. 1981).
Population (million heads). Source: IBGE. Censo Demogrdf ico, 1960, 1970, 1980. J . L y r a Madeira and C. Cardoso d a Silva Simoes. 'Xstimativas preliminares d a p o p u l a ~ g o u r b a n a e rur- al segundo as unidades da F e d e r a ~ a o " R. Bras. E s t a t . 33 (129) 3-11 (Jan./Mar. 1972).
S h a r e of rural population in total ( X ) . Source: IBGE. Censo DemogrAfico, 1960, 1970, 1980. J . Lyra Madeira a n d C. Cardo- s o d a Silva Sim'bes. 'Xstimativas preliminares d a p o p u l a ~ a o urbana e rural segundo as unidades d a Federac?io" R. B r a s . E s t a t . 33 (129) 3-11 (Jan./Mar. 1972).
Illiteracy rate (X) Source: IBGE: Censo Demogrdfico 1960, 1970, 1980.
Labor force (million heads). Source: IBGE. Censo Demogrzlfico 1960, 1970,1980.
K
.H.T.F. Henriques ' ' P r o f e ~ b e s da populap?io t o t a l segundo algurnas a l t e r m t i v a s d e crescimen- t o demogrdfico e projeFBes da p o p u l a ~ ? i o economicamente ativa segundo o a t u a l nivel d e ernprego" IPEA. May 1983.Wage p e r Work Hour (Cruzeiro/work-hour). The d a t a in t h i s column were based on d a t a for t o t a l salaries paid by industry divided by t o t a l workforce in 1970 and 1975 i n t e r p o l a t e d and e x t r a p o l a t e d with indices of variation of industrial s a l a r i e s . Indices f o r 1965-1969 c o r r e s p o n d to industrial w o r k e r s in Rio de J a n e i r o ; indices f o r 1970-1982 c o r r e s p o n d to industrial w o r k e r s nationwide. Based on 2200 work h o u r s p e r y e a r . Source: CE (Sept. 1968, Dec. 1974, Feb. 1984). IBGE. Censo Industrial (Vol. Produ+ Fi%ica. Brasil) 1970, 1975.
Oil P r i c e s (Cruzeiros/ton). Year a v e r a g e p r i c e of BPF ( t h e type of fuel oil used as fuel by industry). Source: PETROBRAS Anuarios EstatiSticos 197f3-1980. CNP. Anuario EstatiStico 1982.
15. ELP: Electricity Price (Cruzeiros/MWH) Average price paid b y in- dustry on January 1st each year. Source: Regulations of
MKE.
16. NPP: Annual newspaper subscription price.
Data
correspond to Jor- nal do Brasil (Rio de Janeiro). Source: J B Jan. 1st (1962- 1982).17. TVU: Number of TV units per capita. Stocks computed from produc- tion data based on a seven-year lifetime. Source: A B I N E E , Anuario Estati3tico (1965-1979).
M.
Aroucas 'Equipamentos do setor Residential Bmsileiro". COPPEAJFRJ. May 1983.TABLE
2 Fuelwood consumptlon by end use (inlo6
m3).Year Total Charcoal Residential Agricultural Industrial
Source: MhE Balanpo E n e r g 6 t l c o Nacional. 1983.
TABLE
3. Firewood sold by silvicultural e n t e r p r i s e s .Year
Quantity (
l o 6
m3 )Price (cruzeiro/m3)
Source: ICBE. Silvlcultura (Vol. 1, 2, 3) 1980
TABI% 4. Consumption o f f o r e s t p r o d u c t s .
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10)
Sawnwood Sawnwood Veneer Plywood Particle- Flber- Newsprlnt Other Prlntlng Household and Paakaglng Conlf. Nonoonlf. board board
+
Wrtg p a p e r S a n i t a r y P a p e r P a p e r s+
Board Y e a r(lo6
m3)(lo6
m3)(lo6
m3)(lo6
m3)(lo6
m3)(lo6
m3) (10' t o n )(lo6
t o n ) (10' t o n ) (lo6 ton)1962 201 .I33 .026 383
1963 207 .I42 .028 .W
1964 212 .I22 .031 .433
1965 2.339 2.132 .073 .I80 .010 .I26 .219 .lo1 .035 -404
1966 2.591 2.217 .090 .I92 .019 .I25 225 .I28 .033 .489
1 967 3.013 2.498 .lo4 216 .042 .I20 231 .I57 .037 .505
1966 3.092 2.480 .I06 224 .042 .I63 238 231 .038 .552 I
1969 3.546 2.809 399 243 .OBI .I80 245 251 .044 .bBQ 01
1970 3.929 3.032 .On2 294 .I12 ,225 252 .271 .058 .702 I
1971 3.859 3.087 .lo1 .373 .I62 .241 271 .344 .059 .T76
1972 3.754 2.761 .I35 .538 262 .281 .306 .393 .062 .838
1973 3.139 2.949 .I66 .583 .312 260 .302 .419 .089 1.083
1974 2.914 4.031 .I62 .604 .359 .289 268 .607 .097 1.317
1975 3.%2 5.603 .I41 .604 .407 392 216 .493 .I06 1.064
1976 4.511 6.380 .I53 .628 ,458 .620 293 .490 .I25 1.367
1977 4.984 7.318 . I W ,618 .541 .630 300 .608 .I42 1.424
1.978 5.246 7.727 .I90 .598 541 .685 297 .618 .I64 1.618
1.979 5.521 7.892 ,229 .584 .550 ,760 .371 .686 .I99 1.911
1980 5.918 8.401 .304 .666 ,645 .843 295 .757 229 2.147
1981 .313 .648 .225 1.823
1982 ,347 .708 241 2.032
--
S o u r c e s : Columns (1)-(6): FAO. Yearbook of F o r e s t P r o d u a t s (1965-1980)
IBDF/COPLAN. Dlagndstico d o Mercado d e Madelra e Derlvados (Vol. 1) 1978 RB/CACEX. Com6rclo Exterior-Exportapao (19'77-1980)
CIEF. Com6rclo E x t e r i o r d o Brasll. I m p o r t a p o (1977-1980) Columns (?)-(lo): ANFPC. Relatdrio Estatrstlao 1980, 1982
4 PRICES OF FINAL PRODUCTS
OF
THE POBEST SECTORTime s e r i e s of consumer p r i c e s for f i n a l p r o d u c t s of t h e f o r e s t sector are a v a i l a b l e (in index f o r m ) only f o r two b i g a g g r e g a t e s : mechanical wood a n d p a p e r . F o r a m o r e d i s a g g r e g a t e d a n a l y s i s , w e h a v e u s e d as a p r o x y uni- tary p r o d u c t i o n v a l u e ( r a t i o between v a l u e of p r o d u c t i o n a n d quantity pro- d u c e d ) f o r s e l e c t e d p r o d u c t s c o n s i d e r e d as r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s of t h e c l a s s e s in t h e GThl c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . Such u n i t a r y p r o d u c t i o n v a l u e s c a n b e con- s i d e r e d c l o s e a p p r o x i m a t i o n s t o wholesale p r i c e s (Table 5).
On t h e b a s i s of t h e h i s t o r i c a l s e r i e s p r e s e n t e d in t h e p r e v i o u s s e c - tions, demand f u n c t i o n s were estimated f o r t h e individual p r o d u c t s con- s i d e r e d in t h e GIX as w e l l as f o r t h e a g g r e g a t e d c a t e g o r i e s "ALL MECHANI- CAL WOOD" a n d "ALL PAPER". T e s t s with d i f f e r e n t combinations of socioeconomic v a r i a b l e s a n d functional f o r m s showed t h a t all macroeconomic information could b e s a t i s f a c t o r i l y r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e GNP.
Introduction of o t h e r o n e s , l i k e u r b a n i z a t i o n rate or i l l i t e r a c y rate, p r e vided n o additional e x p l a n a t o r y power. Also, t h e e x p e r i m e n t s showed t h a t t h e adjustment a t t a i n e d with a Cobb-Douglas function was n o t improved t h r o u g h t h e u s e of more complicated functional f o r m s . S o t h e demand model was specified a s :
w h e r e :
gf =
quantity consumed of p r o d u c t i (inl o 6
m3 f o r mechanical wood a n dl o 6
m e t r i c t o n s f o r p a p e r )
Pi
=
p r i c e of p r o d u c t t ( ~ o ' u s s / ~ ~ f o r m e c h a n i c a l wood, (8OSUSS/ton f o r p a p e r )v =
GNP ( l o 9 80' US$)P r i c e s and GNP were d e f l a t e d to 1 9 8 0 c r u z e i r o s using column 3 in Table 1 a n d t h e n c o n v e r t e d i n t o 1 9 8 0 d o l l a r s at t h e rate of 52.699 c r u z e i r o s p e r d o l l a r (Table 6).
Values in t h e f i r s t line in e a c h box f o r t h e columns a f 9
p i ,
yf show t h e estimated e l a s t i c i t i e s , i.e. t h e v a l u e s of a f ,p i ,
yi e s t i m a t e d f r o m equation (1). Values in t h e 2nd l i n e in e a c h box are t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g t-values f o r t h e r e g r e s s i o n . An a s t e r i s k i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e d e l a s t i c i t y is n o t s t a t i s t i c a l l y meaningful, as indicated by t h e t-values. In o t h e r words demand f o r s u c h p r o d u c t s d o e s n o t seem to b e d r i v e n by p r i c e s (0 elasti- c i t y ) . From t h e point of view of GTM, demand f o r s u c h p r o d u c t s (panels, household p a p e r a n d p a c k a g i n g p a p e r ) should b e c o n s i d e r e d as exogenously determined (with a time p r o f i l e which d e p e n d s o n t h e GYP p r o j e c t i o n c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o e a c h s c e n a r i o ) . In t h e case of p a n e l s , a n a l t e r n a t i v e would b e to u s e t h e p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e c a t e g o r y "ALL MECHANICAL WOOD" whose v a l u e (--75) i s r e a s o n a b l e a n d s t a t i s t i c a l l y mean- ingf ul.T B L E 6.Demand functions estimation
No. of observations
Products Q i pi a i
B i
T iSawnwood (Coniferous) 1 6 8 -.85 1.17 -.492
(-8.03) (10.02)
Saanwood (Nonconiferous) 1 6 1 3 -.77 1.75 -3.861
(-3.88) (9.95)
Veneer 1 6 11 (.34)* .78 -7.567
(.76) (6.00)
Plywood 1 6 11 (.08)* 1.14 -6.969
(.32) (6.11)
Particleboard 16 1 3 (2.57)' 2.24 -25.067
(1.01) (5.80)
All mechanical wood 16 14 -.75 1.08 -3.103
(-7.34) (19.56)
Newsprint 2 1 1 3 -.46 .50 -1.082
(-3.17) (5.92) Printing 6:
writing paper 2 1 8 (.35)* 1.31 -9.606
(1.50) (6.63)
Household & 21 8 -.33 1.70 -8.697
s a n i t a r y paper (-2.39) (14.20)
Packaging paper 2 1 1 3 (.25)* 1.24 -7.749
& paperboard (1.03) (22.47)
All p a p e r 2 1 14 (-.04)* 1.14 -5.099
( - 7 ) (16.80)
6.
FOREST
IZESOURCES(PLANTATIONS)
6.1
Planted
AreaTable 7 shows planted a r e a s which were subsidized by IBDF. S-CS indi- c a t e s South and Center-South s t a t e s (Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina.
P a r a n a . Tao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Espiritu Santo e Kinas Gerais). R indi- c a t e s t h e r e s t of the country (Table 7).
For different reasons. only a fraction of t h e subsidized areas shown in Table 7 become productive. We have assumed this fraction t o be 90X in t h e South and the Center-South and 50% in t h e r e s t of t h e country. We remark t h a t more than 99X of the planted a r e a s receive t h e IBDF subsidy.
P a r t s of the planted f o r e s t s a r e used only f o r fuelwood, mainly to be used ir? steel factories (in r e c e n t y e a r s , o t h e r industrial s e c t o r s a r e plant- ing t h e i r own fuel forests). These a r e a s a r e included in t h e figures shown in Tab!e 7 , but they required a different treatment since t h e i r rotation plan is somewhat different. Productive a r e a s used exclusively f o r fuelwood are shown in Table 8.
TABLE
7. Planted Meas (Hectares).Coniferous Nonconif erous
Y e a r S-CS R
S-CS
RSource: ISDF Reports (1983)
Tmm
Planted areas used for fuelwood (Hectares).Year Coniferous Nonconif erous
Source: B D F Reports (1983)
6.2 r~elds
In o r d e r to estimate yields, 3 productivity levels w e r e considered, excluding fuelwood f o r e s t s . The areas in Table 7, n e t of fuelwood f o r e s t s (Table 8 ) are assumed t o b e distributed by levels as shown in Table 9.
TABLE
8. Fraction of noniuelwood plantation areas c o r r e s p o n d i n g to e a c h level.Levels 1 I1 111
Coniferous .4 .3 -3
Nonconif e r o u s .3 .4 -3
S o u r c e : h f o r m a t i o n provided by members of t h e IPP (ESALWUSP, Piracicaba) r e s e a r c h group
Yields f o r e a c h level are given in Tables 1 0 and 11 in s t e r e o / h e c t a r e (1 m 3
=
1.38 s t e r e o ) .Total yields of nonconiferous fuelwood plantations are assumed to b e t h e same as nonconiferous nonfuel plantations Level 111 (and, of course.
100% is used as fuelwood). Coniferous fuelwood plantations a r e assumed to have an 1 8 y e a r r o t a t i o n plan (with c u t s in y e a r s 6 , 1 2 and 1 8 ) with an a v e r - a g e yield of 233 s t e r e o / h e c t a r e .
7 . 1980 PRODUCTION
AND
CAPACITYTable 1 2 shows 1980 production and c a p a c i t y for all t h e items of i n t e r e s t for t h e GTM. Data on plantations were calculated from Tables 8-11 (areas in Table 8 were adjusted as indicated a c c o r d i n g to t h e South and Center-South vs. rest of t h e country split). Data on n a t u r a l f o r e s t s were estimated s o as t o f i t with production of mechanical wood (given t h e 110 coefficients in Table 1 4 ) , and are considered as r e a s o n a b l e estimates by f o r e s t e x p e r t s . Data on pulp and p a p e r (excluding r e c y c l e d p a p e r ) came from AXF'PC R e l a t d r i o Estati'stico (1980). Data on mechanical wood prod- ucts and r e c y c l e d p a p e r were estimated with t h e help of t h e IF/UFRRJ r e s e a r c h g r o u p (Table 1 2 ) .
There is c o n s i d e r a b l e disagreement on mechanical wood figures. (Pulp and p a p e r f i g u r e s , on t h e o t h e r hand, are v e r y r e l i a b l e ) . We give in Table 13 o t h e r estimates of 1980 production. FAO-IBDF/COPLAN d a t a come from IBDF/COPLAN: Diagnbstico d o Mercado d e Mader-a e Derivados. IPF/USP d a t a are from IPF/ESALQ/USP: Br-asil Florestal (Ano 2000) (1982). W e con- s i d e r t h e estimate from IF/UFRRJ t o be m o r e r e l i a b l e t h a n t h e o t h e r two.
We note t h a t t h e consumption historical s e r i e s (Table 4, Columns 1-6) a r e consistent with t h e FAO-IBDF/COPLAN estimates.
TABLE 10. Yields of nonfuel nonconiferous plantations ( s t e r e o / h e c t a r e ) .
Logs Pulpwood Fuelwood Total
Level Period o f plantation
Cut I I1 111 I I1 I11 I I1 111 I I1 111
1st c u t ( y e a r 6) Up t o 1 9 7 1 2nd c u t ( y e a r 1 2 )
3rd c u t ( y e a r 1 8 )
After 1 9 7 6
1 s t c u t ( y e a r 6 ) 2nd c u t ( y e a r 1 2 ) 3rd c u t ( y e a r 1 8 ) 1 s t c u t ( y e a r 6 ) 2nd c u t ( y e a r 1.2) 3rd c u t ( y e a r 1 8 )
Source: Information provided by members of t h e IPF (ESAI.Q/USP, Plracicaba) r e s e a r a h group.
TABU4 11. Yields l o r nonfuel conilerous plantations (stereo/heatare).
Lons Pulvwood F'uelwood Total
Level
Cut I I1 111
I
11 111 I I1 I11 I 11 111- - -
1 s t c u t ( Y e a r 8 ) 5 3
-
3 0 26 20 7 5 4 42 35 24 2nd c u t ( Y e a r 1 0 ) 1 0 8 3 3 0 26 22 8 7 5 4 8 4 1 30 3 r d c u t ( Y e a r 1 2 ) 20 17 1 0 2 5 2 3 22 9 8 6 5 4 48 38 4th c u t ( Y e a r 1 5 ) 3 0 2 7 2 5 2 0 18 11 1 0 9 7 6 0 5 4 43 5 t h c u t ( Y e a r 1 9 ) 5 0 38 31 2 0 17 1 2 1 4 11 9 8 4 65 5 2 6 t h c u t ( Y e a r 25) 3 8 0 318 2 2 8 90 65 42 94 57 5 4 564 460 324 Source: Information provlded by members of the IPF (ESALVUSP, Piracicaba) research groupTABLE
1 2 1980 Production and capacityP r o d u c t i o n Cauacitv
6 3 L a r g e T r e e s ( P l a n t a t i o n ) (C) (10 m )
6 3
Large T r e e s ( P l a n t a t i o n ) (NC) (10 m ) Small T r e e s ( P l a n t a t i o n ) (C) ( l o 6 m3 )
6 3
S m a l l T r e e s ( P l a n t a t i o n ) (NC) (10 m ) K a t u r a l F o r e s t (C) ( l o 6 m3 )
Natural F o r e s t (NC) ( l o 6 m3 ) Sawnwood (CC) ( l o 6 m3 ) Sawnwood (NC) ( l o 6 m3 )
6 3 V e n e e r (10 m ) Plywood ( l o 6 m3 )
6 3 P a r t i c l e b o a r d (10 m ) F i b e r b o a r d ( l o 6 m3 ) Mechanical P u l p ( l o 6 T) Semi-Yechanical P u l p ( l o 6 T) Chemical P u l p (B) ( l o 6 T) Chemical P u l p (U) ( l o 6 T) Xewsprint ( l o 6 T)
P r i n t i n g & Writing ( l o 6 T) Household & S a n i t a r y ( l o 6 T) Packaging & Board ( l o 6 T) Recycled P a p e r ( l o 6 T)
TABLE 13. 19g0 Reduction of Mechanical Wood (lo6m3)
Sawnwood (conif .) 6.20
Sawnwood (nonconif .) 0.60
V e n e e r .22
Plywood -82
F i b e r b o a r d -84
.92 .84
P a r t i c l e b o a r d -65 .65
8. INPUT-OUTPUT MFOEWATION
Table 1 4 shows input o u t p u t c o e f f i c i e n t s f i t t o t h e GTM f o r m a t . Data on plantation w e r e estimated f r o m Tables 8-11. D a t a on n a t u r a l f o r e s t w e r e obtained from c o n s u l t a t i o n s with IF/UFRRJ. Data on mechanical wood, pulp a n d p a p e r w e r e obtained f r o m i n d u s t r i a l e n t e r p r i s e s .
Ti, T2
a n d Tg r e f e r to t h e t h r e e technology l e v e l s c o n s i d e r e d by GTK. F o r t h e Brazilian c a s e . we h a v e c o n s i d e r e d TI andT2
as o n e technology r e p r e s e n t i n g an a v e r a g e of t h e existing p r o c e s s e s whileT3
r e p r e s e n t s new equipment (when d a t a on s u c h were a v a i l a b l e ) . Circled+
o r-
s i g n s mean missing information, t h e sign indicating t h e sign of t h e missing c o e f f i c i e n t . Blanks a r e z e r o e s a n d c i r c l e d f i g u r e s i n d i c a t e l e s s r e l i a b l e d a t a . C a n d NC r e f e r to c o n i f e r o u s a n d non- c o n i f e r o u s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . Following GTM notation, l a r g e trees are t h o s e which p r o d u c e logs a n d small trees are t h o s e which don't (Table 14).9. COSTSTRUCTURE 9.1 Silvicultnral Costs
These c o s t s w e r e e s t i m a t e d following t h e a c t i v i t y i n p u t s l i s t in
" F o r m a ~ Z o , Manejo e Exp1ora~-ao d e F l o r e s t a s com E s p e c i e s d e Rdpido Cres- cimento" (IBDF, 1 9 8 1 ) . Costs of i n p u t s were obtained d i r e c t l y from sup- p l i e r s e x c e p t f o r i a b o r , which came from IE V. 1 3 Nos 3 , 5, 8 (March, May and August 1983).
Table 15 c o n t a i n s 2 l i s t of a c t i v i t i e s , y e a r classes t o which t h e y a p p l y , and cost p e r h e c t a r e in 8 0 ' c r u z e i r o s .
9.2 H a r v e s t i n g Costs
A similar a p p r o a c h w a s followed f o r h a r v e s t i n g c o s t s . In Table 1 6 c o s t s are given f o r t h e v a r i o u s h a r v e s t i n g activities. C I , C 11, C 111, NC I , NC 11.
NC 111 indicate c o n i f e r o u s p l a n t a t i o n , Levels I . I1 a n d 111 a n d nonconiferous plantations Leveis I . II a n d 111, following t h e classification in Tables 9-11.
CF and NCF i n d i c a t e c o n i f e r o u s a n d nonconiferous fuelwood plantations r e s p e c t i v e l y .
TABJ,R 15. Silvicultural c o s t s by activity.
C o n i f e r N o n c o n i f e r
c o s t C o s t
Y e a r C l a s s e s 80' C r / h a Y e a r C l a s s e s 80' C r / h a Land c l e a r i n a
Road c o n s t r u c t i o n Lime a p p l i c a t i o n Light h a r r o w i n g P l a n t i n g t r e n c h
p r e p a m t i o n F e r t i l i z a t i I r r t c a t i o n
?'i)
P l a n t i n g R e p l a n t i n g ( 2 )
E r a d i c a t i o n of a n t s 1 Eradication of a n t s 2 E r a d i c a t i o n of a n t s 3 Mechanized c l e a n i n g
of s t a n d s Semimechanized
c l e a n i n g of s t a n d s Road m a i n t e n a n c e F i r e b r e a k m a i n t e n a n c e A f t e r c u t c l e a n i n g
1 (twice) 1-25 1-25
( l ) ~ p p l i e s t o 20% of plantations.
'Z)~pplles t o 15% of plantations.
TABLE 16. lseo k t structure of harvestinn trartsportatim
h c t i v i t ~ Rantation
Labcs
Fuel Machinery Total Felling. debranchinp.buckirq and p i l i n ~ KC I, !C
II. N=
III. !KF 21.8 15.1 28.0 €4.9 Mechanical debarknp NJ I, PIJ= 11,NT
a0.4 fl.0 132 44.6 R i m a r y t r a m p r t a t i mN=
I,N: II. N=F
2 7 6.l 7.1 15.9Mechanical loading
N=
I,r C II, X F
l.5 5.7 6.9 14.1Man-1 debarkinp and
primary tl-arsportaticm
N= E l
Man-1 M i n g
N:
LI1,Felling and buckinp CI, CII,
Cm:
cF&branching ard pilinp CI.
CTI,
CF k i n m y transportatimCI,
CII, CF Mechanical debarkingCI, CTI,
CIII,CF
Mechanical loading
CI,
CII,CF
Van-1 debranchinp
pulling and piling CIII
ManLEll h d i n g
c m
9.3 Mechanical Wood Production
Table 17 gives t h e c o s t s t r u c t u r e f o r coniferous sawnwood and plywood (it w a s not possibie t o estimate similar c o s t s f o r o t h e r p r o d u c t s or f o r t h e pulp and p a p e r industries). The information w a s provided by p r i v a t e manufacturers.
TABLE 17. 1980 Cost s t r u c t u r e f o r sawnwood a r d plywood (80' Cr/rn3) Coniferous
sawnwood I n t e r e s t & depreciation
L a b o r
E l e c t r i c i t y and fue!s Chemicals
Packaging materiais Maintenance
General overhead O t h e r c o s t s
Wood (excludinp fuelwood)
9.4 Input Costs
9.4-1 Energy
Table 18 gives 1980 e n e r g y inputs for mechanical wood. Table 1 9 pro- vides t h e e n e r g y mix for t h e y e a r s 1979-1981, when t h e second oil shock took place. Data f o r both t a b l e s a r e based on CNP estimates.
An a l t e r n a t i v e s o u r c e f o r pulp and p a p e r (ANFPC. Relatorio EstatiStico. 1980) gives t h e following p e r c e n t a g e s :
OIL: 57.3, FUELWOOD: 20.00; ELECTRICITY: 17.2, COAL: 5.5
Table 2 0 shows t h e c o s t of e n e r g y inputs for 1980-1983. OIL and ELECTRI- CITY c o s t s are f r o m columns 1 4 and 1 5 in Table 1 . COAL c o s t (6 GCALAon, 25% a s h e s ) a r e from: CKP: 'Andario Estatfstico 1983).
9.4.2 Labor costs
Table 2 1 gives l a b o r c o s t s , in c u r r e n t cruzeiros/working h o u r . Social c o s t s (about 20%) are not included. Data for "mechanical wood industries"
include all "forest industry" workers, most of whom a r e c l o s e r t o agricul- t u r a l workers and have lower s a l a r i e s . "Pulp and p a p e r " d a t a a r e b e t t e r approximations f o r more advanced mechanical wood industries (e.g. panels).
DaLa for "all industrial workers" h a v e t h e same s o u r c e as column 13 in Table 1. Data for "mechanical wood workers" were obtained from: IBGE.
Pesquisa Industrial (1981-1982), dividing t o t a l pa.woll by number of work- ers (based on 2200 work hours./year). Data for "pulp and p a p e r workers"
comes f r o m ANFPC. "Anfhrio EstatiStico" (1980-1982). Data for "forest industry workers" a r e a weighted a v e r a g e of "mechanical wood workers"
and "pulp and p a p e r workers".
9.4.3 Wood inputs
Table 22 gives wood c o s t a t mills in 1983 estimated with t h e help of t h e IF/UFRRJ r e s e a r c h g r o u p .
9.5 Transportation
In Brasil F o r e s t a l , Ano 2000 (IPF/ESQALQ/USP, 1982) t r a n s p o r t a t i o n costs for wood in 1980 w e r e estimated as
where c i s t h e c o s t in 80'
L!ss/rn3
and h t h e haul in km. A v e r y rough approximation for t h e a v e r a g e haul indicates 7 5 km f o r nonconiferous and 1 2 5 km for coniferous. On t h i s basis, a r e a s o n a b l e estimate of t r a n s - portation marginal cost as a function of quantity t r a n s p o r t e d . based on a r a d i a l expansion, gives.64
$ +
.06 for nonconiferous 1 . 4 9 q+
.06 for coniferousTABLE
18. 1980 Ehergy inputs for mechanical woodducti ion
Oil E l e c t r i c i t y Fuelwood
(liters/ton)
(KWN
/ton) (m3/ton)Plywood 185 73 .50
Veneer 131 7 3 .20
P a r t i c l e b o a r d 124 7 3 .53
Fiberboard 257 73
-
TABLE 10. Ehemy mix for mechanical wood and pulp and paper Pulp and p a p e r
1979 1980 1981
- -
Oil 68.95 61.36 47.15
G a s .02 .OO .OO
h e l w o o d 10.88 17.03 19.96
Electricity 15.56 16.13 18.35
Coal 4.59 5.48 14.53
Total 100.00 100.00 100.00
Mechanical wood
1979 1980 1981
88.31 82.31 64.36
.25 -29 .33
6.56 12.50 30.53
4.88 4.90 4.77
.oo .oo -00
100.00 10.00 100.00
TABLE 20. Costs of fuels (current cruzeiros).
1980 1981 1982 1983
Electricity ( c ~ / K w ~ ) " ) 1.11 1.93 4.31 9.81
Oil ( ~ r / t o n )
"'
6637 18396 31840 47000Coal ( ~ r / t o n ) ( I ) 886 2214 5557 11205 ( " ~ r i c e s f o r J a n u a r y 1st
(')Year a v e r a g e s
TABLE 21. Labr casts (current cruzeiros,horking huur)
a l l industrial w o r k e r s 68.9 99.6 230.2
f o r e s t industry w o r k e r s 60.0 86.2 200.2
pulp and p a p e r w o r k e r s 106.9 154.7 356.9
mechanical wood w o r k e r s 44.3 64.1 148.0
TABLE 22 Wood costs at mi!ls ir! 1983.
Pine logs 3120
Eucalyptus logs 700
P i n e pulpwood 1560
Eucalvptus puipwmd 350
where p i s the c o s t in 80'
US$/
m3 and Q i s t h e quantity t r a n s p o r t e d in1 0 h 3 .
-
9.6 Summ~ry of Production Costs
W e p r e s e n t h e r e a summary of t h e cost estimates of t h e previous p a r a - g r a p h s converted into 1980 US f .l ha .
9.6-1 Silvicultural (80' US$ /ha)
Coniferous: 3 7
Nonconiferous: 49
9.6.2 Hamesting (80' usS/rn3)
Nonconiferous: 2.7
Coniferous (Levels 1, 2 and fuelwood): 3.9
Coniferous (Level 3) : 2.9
9.6.3 Transportation (80' U S S h 3 )
Coniferous: 4.4
Nonconiferous: 7.4
9.6.4 Mechanical wood production (80' U S S / m3)
Fixed c o s t s Variable c o s t s Total
Coniferous sawnwood 2.1 24.7 26.8
Plvwmd 65.4 138.2 205.6
10. EXPORTS
Table 2 3 gives t h e t e n main i m p o r t e r s of Brazilian f o r e s t s e c t o r prod- u c t s t o g e t h e r with t h e quantity imported and t h e t r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t .
Quantities were obtained from BB/CACEX Comdrcio E x t e r i o r , Exporta@io (1980). T r a n s p o r t a t i o n costs by r o a d w e r e t a k e n from Brasil Floresta!. Ano 2000 (IPF/ESA.LQ/USP, 1982). T r a n s p o r t a t i o n c o s t s by ship w e r e estimated from F r e i g h t c o n f e r e n c e d a t a provided by SUNAMPlh! f o r 1984. They w e r e adjusted t o 1980 assuming a 15% r e a l i n c r e a s e between 1 9 8 0 and 1984. Bunker t a x e s , 5% f o r a g e n t commission and 318 C r / t o n f o r dock c h a r g e s a r e included.
TABLE 23. Export quantttles and transportatlon c o s t s
Sawnwood a n d p a n e l s P u l p
C o u n t r y USA ( f r o m S a n t o s ) USA ( f r o m Belem) A r g e n t i n a (*) West G e r m a n y
E n g l a n d ( f r o m S a n t o s ) V e n e z u e l a (*)
N e t h e r l a n d s C a n a d a S o u t h A f r l c a
E n g l a n d ( f r o m Belem)
Q u a n t i t v 103 t o n s
C o s t 80' G r / t o n
Q u a n t l t y C o s t C o u n t r y lo3 t o n s 80' C r / t o n Belgium
J a p a n N o r w a y USA A r g e n t i n a I t a l y E n g l a n d West G e r m a n y N e t h e r l a n d s C h i n a
P a p e r Roundwood a n d c h i p s
Q u a n t i t y C o s t Q u a n t i t v C o s t C o u n t r y lo3 t o n s 80' C r / t o n C o u n t r y 1 . 0 ~ t o n s 80' C r / t o n N i g e r i a
A r p e n t l n a Hong Kong I n d l a E c u a d o r P a r a g u a y (*) Austral.ia I r a n E n g l a n d L e b a n o n
5435 J a p a n 6 6432 3411
7179 4815 3931 4680 7462 4815 4829 6015
(*) r o a d t r a n s p o r t a t i o n
11. SUBSIDIES AND TARIFF'S
Government action involving t h e f o r e s t sector acts mainly through incentives to silvicultural activities and subsidies and b a r r i e r s in t h e foreign t r a d e sector.
All plantations are subsidized by IBDF through v e r y l o w i n t e r e s t c r e d i t using t h e scale indicated in Table 24 (information provided by f o r e s t e x p e r t s f r o m IFIUFRRJ).
Foreign t r a d e incentives and b a r r i e r s a r e much h a r d e r t o quantify. A minimum subsidy on dl e x p o r t e d goods of 11Z of POB value applies. In addi- tion, special incentives are used f o r specific p r o d u c t s and destinations.
Also, a l a r g e set of specific regulations, many of them e n a c t e d or r e i n - f o r c e d during t h e last few y e a r s as a consequence of t h e h a r d c u r r e n c y c r i s e s , tends t o discourage imports. A f e w g e n e r a l qualitative regulations a r e :
No sawnwood imported No sawnwood e x p o r t e d
Even t h e s e regulations are sometimes o v e r r u l e d by special b i l a t e r a l t r a d e agreements. In 1980, for instance, 60000 tons of sawnwood were imported from Paraguay and 6000 tons of roundwood were e x p o r t e d t o Japan.
12. FTTURE PERSPECTIVES
During t h e seventies, p r o j e c t i o n s of t h e f u t u r e behavior of t h e F o r e s t s e c t o r assumed a l a r g e expansion of planted areas and a constant high rate of GNP i n c r e a s e . Based on t h e projections made in 'B~rasil F o r e s t a l , Ano 2000" (IPF/ESALQ/USP) which include highly disaggregated f o r e c a s t s for d i f f e r e n t products, end u s e s , e t c . , w e have c o n s t r u c t e d two optimistic s c e n a r i o s .
Scenario 1 assumes 260000 h a / y e a r planted f r o m 1985 on and 50Z i n c r e a s e o v e r c u r r e n t yields f o r f o r e s t s planted after 1985.
Scenario 2 assumes 500000 h a / y e a r planted f r o m 1985 on and c u r r e n t yields.
Both s c e n a r i o s should assume 8% i n c r e a s e p e r y e a r in GNP and c a p a c i t y (with 1985 figures equal t o 1980 for both capacity and G N P )
However, t h e recession in t h e e a r l y eighties h a s made t h e s e forecasts excessively optimistic, as c a n be s e e n from r e c e n t plantation area (Table 25).
Many e x p e r t s f e e l t h a t such a stagnation p I c t u r e could p e r s i s t for q u i t e a long time. Based on such gloomy expectations w e h a v e built two pes- simistic scenarios, 3 and 4. Both assume 120000 h a / y r planted up to 1990 a n d 200000 ha/.= l a t e r on. S c e n a r i o 4 assumes t h a t c u r r e n t yields w i l l b e maintained, while s c e n a r i o 5 assumes a yield i n c r e a s e , obtained by changing t h e ' s h a r e of levels ( s e e Tables 9-11) as shown in Table 26.
Using t h e y e a r s t r u c t u r e and yields of c u r r e n t l y existing f o r e s t s (Table 9-11) plus t h e hypothesis of t h e f o u r s c e n a r i o s , w e s e t time profiles for 1/0 coefficients f o r plantations and available volumes shown in Table 27, where LC, LNC, SC and SNC refer t o l a r g e coniferous, l a r g e nonconiferous,
small c o n i f e r o u s and small nonconiferous trees r e s p e c t i v e l y ( s e e section 0 f o r t h e definition of l a r g e and small t r e e s ) . O t h e r I/O coefficients (includ- ing t h o s e f o r n a t u r a l f o r e s t s ) are k e p t c o n s t a n t along time in t h e f o u r s c e n a r i o s . Available volume f r o m natural f o r e s t s are expected to have t h e time p r o f i l e shown in Table 28, in all t h e f o u r s c e n a r i o s .
S c e n a r i o s 3 and 4 may b e overly pessimistic. A "middle of t h e r o a d "
s c e n a r i o could b e built bv averaging t h e f o u r p r e c e d i n g s c e n a r i o s (both I/O coefficients a n d available volumes) and assuming t h a t both GNP and c a p a - c i t y expand at an annual rate of 5 Z .
TABLE 24. Silvicdtural Subsidies (1984 data in 80' &/ha)
-
Implantation onlv
Implantation
& maintenance
w i t h land c l e a r i n g 21819 28832
without land c l e a r i n g 15174 26495
Cbnz-lktous ( a v e r a g e ) : 11688
TABLE 25. k e n t plantation areas ( l o 6 ha).
Approved plantation area Expected productive plantation area
Pinus Eucalyptus Total Pinus Eucalyptus Total
TABLE 26. Sh=e of yield lwek f o r scenarios 3 and 4 a f t e r 1985. Both scenarios should assume that Gw and capacity increase l% a y e a r from 1985 t o 1990 a r d 2%
a year a f t e r lSM.
-
S c e n a r i o 3 S c e n a r i o 4
Levels I I I I11 Levels I I1 I11
Coniferous .4 .3 .3 Coniferous .7 .3 .O
Nonconif e r o u s .3 .4 .3 Nonconif e r o u s .7 .3 .O
6 3
fABI.R 27. 1/O C o e l l i c l e n t s end a v a i l a b l e volume (10 m ) f o r s c e n a r i o s 1-4.
S c e n a r i o 2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
LC LNC S C SNC LC LNC SC SNC LC LNC S C SNC LC LNC SC SNC LC LNC SC SNC LC LNC S C SNC
L o g s (C) .35 .38 .58 .55 .54 .80
L o g s (NC) -14 . I 4 .14 .12 . I 4 . I 4
Pulp & c h i p s (C) .49 .45 .26 .29 .30 .24
Pulp & c h i p s (NC) .88 .56 .66 .46 .66 .48 .68 .46 .66 .43 .66 .43
Puelwood .16 .20 1.00 .44 .16 .20 1.00 .54 .16 .20 1.00 .52 .16 .20 1.00 .54 .16 .20 1.00 .57 .16 .20 1.00 .57 Avallable volume 7.39 8.43 9.07 33.49 11.28 21.17 15.70 45.67 37.45 14.79 16.18 44.12 38.68 30.93 20.07 45.53 36.11 44.02 20.26 49.15 55.84 44.02 20.26 49.15
S c e n a r i o 2 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
--
LC LNC S C SNC LC LNC S C SNC LC LNC S C SNC LC L.NC SC SNC LC LNC SC SNC LC LNC SC SNC
LORS (C) .35 .38 .52 .52 .51 .59 I
L o g s (NC) . I 4 .14 .14 -14 . I 4 .14 N
L
Pulp & c h l p s (C) .49 .45 .32 .32 .33 .25 8
Pulp & c h i p s (NC) .66 .56 .66 .50 .66 .49 .68 .49 .66 .44 .66 .44
Fuelwood .16 .20 1.00 .44 .16 .20 1.00 .50 .16 .20 1.00 .52 .16 .20 1.00 .51 .16 .20 1.00 .56 .16 .20 1.00 .56 A v a i l a b l e volume 7.39 8.43 9.07 33.49 11.28 21.17 20.88 53.01 42.08 14.79 18.31 50.89 41.31 37.82 29.38 54.28 41.26 42.25 26.75 59.43 73.19 42.25 26.75 59.43
S c e n a r i o ,9 1985 1990 1995 2000
LC LNC S C SNC LC LNC S C SNC L.C LNC S C SNC LC LNC SC SNC
L o c s (C) .35 .3fl .62 .59
Logs (NC) .14 .14 .14 . I 4
Pulp & c h l p s (C) .49 .45 .22 .25
Pulp & c h i p s (NC) .66 .56 .66 .35 .66 .37 .66 .50
Fuelwood .16 .20 1.00 .44 .16 .20 1.00 .65 .16 .20 1.00 .63 .16 .20 1.00 .50 A v a l l a b l e volume 7.39 8.43 9.07 33.49 11.28 21.17 14.32 21.85 34.44 14.79 11.58 20.30 32.07 17.25 12.34 23.51
2005 2010
L.C LNC S C SNC 1.C LNC SC SNC
.57 .56
. I 4 -14
.27 .28
.66 .49 .66 .46
.16 .20 1.00 .51 . I 6 .20 1.00 .54 27.82 20.31 9.40 23.78 26.49 24.39 10.65 25.19
S c e n a r i o 4 1985 1990 1995 2000
LC LNC S C SNC LC LNC S C SNC LC LNC SC SNC LC LNC SC SNC
2005 2010
LC LNC SC SNC LC LNC SC SNC
1 . 0 ~ s (C) .35 .38 .63 .60
L o e s (NC) .14 .14 .14 .14
Pulp & c h l p s (C) .49 .45 .21 .24
Pulp & c h l p s (NC) .66 .56 .66 .33 .66 .35 .66 .48
Fuelwood .16 .20 1.00 .44 .16 .20 1.00 .67 .16 .20 1.00 .65 . I 6 .20 1.00 .52 Available volume 7.39 8.43 9.07 33.49 11.28 21.17 14.32 20.96 33.94 14.79 11.66 19.41 31.22 16.46 12.46 22.14
TABLE 25. ktural farest available volume ( 1 0 % ~ ) . (All scenarios)
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Coniferous 9.0 6.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 0.0
Nonconif erous 21.0 14.0 11.0 7.0 4 . 0 0.0
APPENDM- List of Institutional Abbreviations
ABINEE ANFPC B B CACEX CE CIEF
C N P COPLAN COPPE ESALQ FA0 IBDF IBGE
Associa~Zio B r a s i l e i r a d e Industrias Eletro-Eletrbnicas (Brazi- lian Association of Electric and Electronic Industries)
AssociaFBo Nacional d e Fabricantes d e Papel e Celulose (National Association of P a p e r and Pulp manufacturers)
Banco d o Brasil (Bank of Brazil)
C a r t e i r a d e Comkrcio E x t e r i o r (Foreign T r a d e Department) Confuntura Econbmica (Economic Conjuncture, Monthly Jour- nal)
Coordenacao d o Sistema d e Informapio Econbmico-Fiscais (Coordination of t h e System of Economic-Financial Infonna- tion)
Conselho Nacional d e P e t r d l e o (National Petroleum Council) ComissBo d e P l a n e jamento (Planning Commission)
Coordena&%o d e Programas d e Pbs-Graduac30 em Engenharia (Coordination of Post-graduate Engineering Programs)
Escola S u p e r i o r d e Agricultura Luiz d e Queiroz (Agricultural Graduate School Luiz d e Queiros)
Food and Agriculture Organization
Instituto Brasileiro d e Desenvolvimento Florestal ( F o r e s t Development Brazilian Institute)
Instituto Brasileiro d e Geografia e Estattktica (Brazilian Insti- t u t e of Geography and Statistics)
I n f o n n a ~ b e s Econbnicas (Economic Information, Monthly Jour- nal)
Instituto d e Florestas (Forest Institute)
IPEA IPF
JB M M E
PETROBRAS SUNAMAM UFRJ
USP
Instituto d e Planejamento Econbmico e Social (Social and Economic Planning Institute)
Instituto d e Pesquisas Fiorestais (Forest Research Institute) Jornal do Brasil (Rio de Janeiro newspaper)
Ministerio des M i n a s e Energia (Mines and Energy Ministry) Petr6leos Brasileiros (Brazilian Petroleum).
Superintendt2ncia Nacional da Marinha Mercante (National Department f o r the Merchant Navy.
Universidade Federal d e Rio d e Janeiro (Rio d e Janeiro University)
Universidade Federal Rural de Rio d e Janeiro (Rio d e Janeiro Rural Federal University)
Universidade d e S&o Paulo (S%o Paulo University)
ABINEE. Anudrio E s t a t l s t i c o (1965-1979) ANFPANFPC
.
Relatdrio Estatfstico (1980-1982)Aroucas,
M
. Equipamentos do S e t o r Residencial Brasileiro (COPPE/UFRJ)BB/CACEX
.
Com4rcio E x t e r i o r-
E x p o r t a ~ s o (1976-1980)CE. Issues of S e p t . 68, O c t . 68, Jun. 70, Mar. 71, Jun. 71, Mar. 73, Dec.
74, Dec. 79, Feb. 81, Dec. 81, Mar. 83, Jan. 8 4 , Feb. 8 4 )
CIEF. Ministdrio d a Fazenda. Com4rcio E x t e r i o r do Brasil
-
Importap80 (1977-1980)
CNP. Anudrio Estatfstico (1982)
Dykstra, D.; Kallio, h!. A Preliminary Model of Production, Consumption and International Trade in F o r e s t Products. IIASA. WP-84-14. (1984) FAO. Yearbook of F o r e s t P r o d u c t s (1965-1980)
[lo]
Henriques, M.H.T.F. P r o J e p a e s d a Populapzo total segundo algumas a l t e r n a t i v a s d e crescimento demogrdfico e proje@oes d a populapZo economicamente a t i v a segundo o nivel d e emprego. IPEA (May 1983)1111
IBDF. F o r m a ~ Z o , Manejo e E x p l o r a p b d e F l o r e s t a s com Espdcies d e R&pido Crescimento[I21 IBDF/COPLAK. Diagn6stico d o Mercado d e Madeira e Derivados (Vol. 1 ) (1978)
1131
IBGE. Censo Demografico (1960, 1970, 1980)[14] IBGE. Censo Industrial (Vol. P r c d u ~ $ o F e i c a , Brasil) (1975, 1980) [15] Pesqufsa Industrial (1965-1969, 1973, 1974, 1976-1979, 1981,1982) [I61 IBGE. Silvicultum (Vol. 1, 2, 3) (1980)
[I71 IE. Vol. 13, Nos. 3, 5. 8 (1983)
[18] IPF/ESALQ/USP. Brasil Florestal, Ano 2000 (1982) [I91
JB.
Jan. 1st issue (1962-1980)[20] Lyra Madeira, J . ; Cardoso da Silva Sirnbes, C. Estimativas preliminares da populap$o urbana e rural segundo as unidades da F e d e m ~ l l o . R . Bras. Est. 33 (129) 3-11 (Jan./Mar. 1972)
[21] MME. B a l a n ~ o Energetic0 Nacional (1983) [22] PETROBRAS
