Marginal Abatement Curves in the Energy-Systems GMM Model
Leonardo Barreto, Peter Rafaj, Socrates Kypreos
Energy Economics Group Paul Scherrer Institute
ETSAP Meeting, Paris, June 21, 2004
Outline
• The energy-systems GMM model
• Multi-gas mitigation
• Implementing marginal abatement curves
• Some results
• Concluding remarks
The Energy-Systems GMM Model
• Global, five-region, energy-systems MARKAL model (Barreto, 2001; Rafaj et al., 2004)
• Calibrated to year-2000 statistics
• Endogenized technology learning
• Time horizon 2000-2050, 10-year steps
• Relative detail in energy supply technologies
• Stylized representation of end-use technologies
Multi-gas Mitigation
• Inclusion of non-CO2 GHGs is important for the examination of strategies to mitigate climate change
• The consideration of non-CO2 GHGs may lead to noticeable effects on costs and
composition of mitigation measures (Reilly et al., 2003)
• Marginal abatement curves or bottom-up representation of mitigation technologies
Marginal Abatement Curves (MAC)
• Implementation of MACs for methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) following approach of MERGE (Manne and Richels, 2003)
• Three categories: exogenous baseline,
endogenous baseline, non-abatable emissions
• Data from the U.S EPA (2003) study,
potentials are relative to baseline emissions
• Technical-progress multipliers to extrapolate abatement potentials beyond 2020
Marginal Abatement Curves - 2
• Methane (CH4):
– Energy-related baseline emissions are endogenous (coal, oil and gas)
– Non-energy related baseline emissions are
exogenous (solid waste and manure management)
• Nitrous oxide (N2O): exogenous baseline emissions (adipic and nitric acid production)
• Exogenous, non-abatable emissions: CH4 from enteric fermentation and rice paddies, N2O
from soils
A Multi-gas Baseline Scenario
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Global GHG Emissions (Mt C-eq)
N2O - Other Sources N2O - Adipic Acid N2O - Nitrous Acid CH4 - Other Sources CH4 - Manure Man.
CH4 - Solid Waste Man.
CH4 - Oil CH4 - Gas CH4 - Coal CO2 (energy)
CH4
N2O
An Illustrative Mitigation Scenario
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Global GHG Emissions (CO2+CH4+N20, Mt C-eq)
CH4+N2O Contribution CO2 Contribution
Baseline
Cumulative Constraint
Non-CO
2Abatement
0 500 1000 1500 2000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
CH4 Emissions from Coal Production (Mt C-eq)
Baseline
Multi-Gas-Growth Rate 20%/year Multi-Gas-Growth Rate 40%year
Non-CO
2Abatement Potentials
0 50 100 150 200
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Percentage of Baseline Emissions (%)
Abatement Cost (US$/ton C-eq)
Technical Multiplier
2020 2050
Mitigation Costs
0 50 100 150 200
CO2-Only Multi-Gas Growth Rate
40%/year
Multi-Gas Growth Rate
40%/year - Tech. Mult. 1.6
Multi-Gas Growth Rate
20%/year
Multi-Gas Growth Rate
20%/year - Tech. Mult. 1.6
Mitigation Costs (Billion US$2000)
Concluding Remarks
• Marginal abatement curves allow incorporating the effects of non-CO2 GHGs (CH4,N2O) into the energy-systems GMM model
• Composition of mitigation strategies and
mitigation costs depend on assumptions about potentials (technical multipliers) and growth rates for abatement of non-CO2 GHGs
• Further work: Technical multipliers as a function of cumulative abatement (experience)?
Acknowledgements
• The collaboration with Hal Turton from the Environmentally Compatible Energy
Strategies (ECS) project at IIASA is highly appreciated
• The support from the Swiss National Center of Competence in Research on Climate
(NCCR-Climate) funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation is gratefully
acknowledged
