Latin American World Model. Proceedings of the Second IIASA Symposium on Global Modelling

I ^{LATIN AMERICAN}

WORLD MODEL

I PROCEEDINGS OF THE ¹

I SECOND NASA SYMPOSIUM ON

I GLOBAL MODELLING

I GERHART BRUCKMANN, EDITOR

OCTOBER 7 - 1 0 7 9 7 4 CP-76-8

LATIN AMERICAN WORLD MODEL

PROCEEDINGS OF THE SECOND IlASA

SYMPOSIUM ON

GLOBAL MODELLING

GERHART BRUCKMANN, EDITOR OCTOBER 7 - 1 0 7 9 7 4

Views expressed herein are those o f the contributors and not neces- sarily those of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

The Institute assumes full responsibility for minor editorial changes, and trusts that these modifications have not abused the sense o f the writers' ideas.

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

2361

Laxenburg, Austria

PREFACE

The mathematical model presented here is normative; the concern is not with predict- ing what will occur if the contemporary tendencies of mankind continue, but rather with sketching a way of arriving at the final goal of a world liberated from backwardness and misery.

Any long-term forecast about the development of mankind is based on a view of the world rooted in a particular value system. By assuming that the structure of the contempo- rary world and the set of values which sustains it may be linearly projected toward the future, we are in fact taking a position. In this sense, the difference which is usually made between a projective and normative model is essentially fallacious.

The idea of constructing this model springs from a meeting held in 1970 in Rio de Janeiro sponsored jointly by the Club of Rome and the Instituto Universitario de Pesquisas d o Rio de Janeiro. The meeting analyzed and discussed the results of the World Model 111 which was constructed by the group headed by Meadows at the Sloan School of Management of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). As a result of the dis- cusion of the basic assumptions of the World Model 111, a group of Latin Americans attending the meeting decided t o assign the Fundacion Bariloche of Argentina the work of construct- ing a world model that encorporated the views expressed at the meeting.

A Committee was formed composed of Helio Jaguaribe, Carlos A. Mallmann, Enrique Oteiza, Jorge Sabato, Osvaldo Sunkel, Victor Urquidi, and Amilcar Herrera, which in September 1971 issued a paper giving in general terms the fundamental hypotheses and variables t o be used in the Bariloche Model. This preliminary project was submitted'to the annual meeting of the Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO), held in Buenos Aires in December 1971.

In mid-1971, a meeting was held at the Fundacion Bariloche, attended by the majority of the members of the Committee as well as by some of those who would later be involved as authors in the project. The meeting defined the essential features of the Model t o be developed. The Committee appointed a Project Director, and entrusted him with the task of forming the group of specialists who would construct the model. In the final phase of the project Hugo Scolnik was appointed Co-Director of the project.

While an individual author has reported on the main task assigned him, this in n o way reflects the real participation that each had in the work. The hypotheses and basic philosophy of the model were the product of a long and difficult collective task, and it is almost impos- sible t o distinguish the individual contributions.

The initial group which gave rise t o the project constituted itself thereafter into a Consulting Committee, with the mission of periodically carrying o u t a critical analysis of the progress of the work. Its criticisms and suggestions were a valuable contribution t o the task performed. It is appropriate t o point out that final responsibility for the ideas contained in the model is with the authors.

An initial contribution was received from the Club of Rome t o carry out a study on the project's feasibility. Thereafter, the execution of the project was financed in full by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada. The authors wish t o express their gratitude t o both institutions for the total academic freedom given them.

Amilcar Herrera

Buenos Aires, August, 1974.

T a b l e o f C o n t e n t s

P r e f a c e

. . .

Opening Remarks

T j a l l i n g K o o p m a n s

. . .

P a r t I : P a p e r s P r e s e n t e d and D i s c u s s i o n s I n t r o d u c t i o n and B a s i c Assumptions

o f t h e Model

A m i l c a r H e r r e r a

. . .

D i s c u s s i o n

P e t e r S i n t , R a p p o r t e u r

. . .

The F u n c t i o n i n g o f t h e Model and t h e Demographic Model

. . .

Hugo S c o l n i k , L u i s T a l a v e r a U r b a n i z a t i o n and Housing

Diana Mossovich

. . .

D i s c u s s i o n

O l i v e r B e r n a r d i n i , R a p p o r t e u r

. . .

Non-Renewable N a t u r a l R e s o u r c e s and P o l l u t i o n Methods

A m i l c a r H e r r e r a

. . .

The Long-Term E v o l u t i o n of t h e P r i c e s o f Energy

C a r l o s E . S u 6 r e z

. . .

D i s c u s s i o n

P e t e r F l e i s s n e r , R a p p o r t e u r

. . .

The Food S e c t o r

G i l b e r t o G a l l o p i n

. . .

L a t i n American World Model:

T h e o r e t i c a l S t r u c t u r e and Economic S e c t o r

G r a c i e l e C h i c h i l n i s k y

. . .

D i s c u s s i o n

Wolfgang B l a a s , R a p p o r t e u r

. . .

iii

1

I n f o r m a l D i s c u s s i o n ( E v e n i n g S e s s i o n )

F e r e n c R a b a r , R a p p o r t e u r

. . .

137 The E d u c a t i o n S e c t o r

G i l d a Romero B r e s t

. . .

^{14 1}

S p e c i a l R e p o r t o f A l t e r n a t i v e Runs

G r a c i e l e C h i c h i l n i s k y a n d Hugo S c o l n i k

. . .

¹⁵⁵

( A s R e p o r t e d by G. Bruckmann) D i s c u s s i o n

W.D. N o r d h a u s , R a p p o r t e u r

. . .

¹⁵⁷

P a r t 11: R e p o r t o n O t h e r M o d e l l i n g E f f o r t s P r o j e c t CRISIS

R . C . C u r n o w .

. . .

¹⁶¹

F o r e c a s t i n g Work a t t h e S c i e n c e P o l i c y R e s e a r c h U n i t

J o h n A - C l a r k

. . .

163 G l o b a l M o d e l l i n g i n R e l a t i o n t o t h e

D e v e l o p i n g C o u n t r i e s

M.S. I y e n g a r

. . .

¹⁶⁷

Non-Economic a n d Economic F a c t o r s i n S o c i e t a l Development: The

G e n e r a l P r o d u c t i o n F u n c t i o n

. . .

. . .

C h r i s t o f G a s p a r i a n d J o h a n n M i l l e n d o r f e r 175 M o d e l l i n g R e s o u r c e P r o b l e m s

. . .

P.C. R o b e r t s 189

I RADES

E l e o n o r a B a r b i e r i M a s i n i

. . .

197 R e a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e World I n d u s t r y

Y. Kaya a n d M. I s h i k a w a

. . .

¹⁹⁹

On a M u l t i - N a t i o n - L i n k Economic Model

A k i r a O n i s h i

. . .

²⁴⁹

A H e a l t h C a r e D e l i v e r y System--of t h e P e o p l e , b y t h e P e o p l e , f o r t h e P e o p l e

, I r w i n M. J a r e t t , ( A s s i s t e d by G a b r i e l l e M. D 8 E l i a )

.

²⁷¹

A N e w Approach t o C i t i z e n I n v o l v e m e n t i n E d u c a t i o n and H e a l t h C a r e D e l i v e r y

H e l e n M. P e t e r s e n , G a b r i e l l e M. D 8 E l i a ,

. . .

M i c h a e l J . S c h u s s e l e , a n d I r w i n M. J a r e t t 291

Problems of Population Doubling: The World Food Problem

Hans Linnemann . . .

^{3 0 5}

Contribution to the General Discussion on Wednesday,

9

October

1 9 7 4

on the Latin American World Model Developed by the Fundaci6n Bariloche, Argentina

Manfred H. Siebker . . .

^{3 1 1}

A Comparison of Models and an Ecological Model

Samir

I.

Ghabbour . . .

^{3 1 3}

AppendixA Agenda. . . .

^{3 2 1}

. . .

Appendix B List of Participants and Observers

3 2 5

Opening Remarks T j a l l i n g Koopmans

L e t me welcome you o n b e h a l f o f P r o f e s s o r Howard R a i f f a who r e g r e t s t h a t u n e x p e c t e d and i m p e r a t i v e IIASA b u s i n e s s h a s p r e v e n t e d him from a t t e n d i n g t h e C o n f e r e n c e . However, h e h a s o f f e r e d u s some w r i t t e n s u g g e s t i o n s a s t o t h e n a t u r e of t h e C o n f e r e n c e . I want t o welcome a l l who have come, i n t h e f i r s t p l a c e , P r o f e s s o r H e r r e r a and h i s c o l l e a g u e s from t h e Fundaci6n B a r i l o c h e who have made t h e i r i d e a s a v a i l a b l e f o r d i s c u s s i o n a t t h i s C o n f e r e n c e . S e c o n d l y , I s h o u l d l i k e t o welcome t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s from many r e s e a r c h g r o u p s i n many c o u n t r i e s who a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g p r o b l e m s . F i n a l l y , a word o f welcome t o t h e IIASA s t a f f members p r e s e n t and t o t h o s e who w i l l a t t e n d o r p a r t i c i p a t e i n t h e v a r i o u s d i s c u s s i o n s .

The c h a i r m e n o f t h e s e s s i o n s w i l l b e IIASA s t a f f members;

a t f i v e of t h e s e s s i o n s we w i l l d i s c u s s v a r i o u s p a p e r s

p r e s e n t e d and t h e work of t h e Fundacidn B a r i l o c h e . P r o f e s s o r Bruckmann i s r e s p o n s i b l e a t IIASA f o r t h e work o n g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g , and w i l l c h a i r t h e l a s t t h r e e m e e t i n g s which w i l l summarize t h e i n f o r m a t i o n p r e s e n t e d and a s s e m b l e r e s e a r c h g r o u p s f o r v a r i o u s work on g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g .

I would l i k e t o r e a d t h e s t a t e m e n t of P r o f e s s o r R a i f f a on t h e n a t u r e o f IIASA's i n t e r e s t , i n v o l v e m e n t , and s u p p o r t of t h e s e r i e s of c o n f e r e n c e s o n g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g of which t h i s i s t h e second. I t r u s t t h a t many o f you were p r e s e n t a t t h e f i r s t c o n f e r e n c e d e v o t e d t o t h e work o f P r o f e s s o r s Mesarovic and P e s t e l . P r o f e s s o r Raif f a

'

s s t a t e m e n t i n d i c a t e s IIASA's i n t e r e s t i n s u p p o r t i n g and f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e work of many r e s e a r c h g r o u p s i n g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g .

" T h i s i s t h e second g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g c o n f e r e n c e h o s t e d by IIASA. While g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g i s n o t one of o u r m a j o r p r o j e c t s , it i s s o m e t h i n g we want t o m o n i t o r and c u l t i v a t e t o s e r v e t h e s c i e n t i f i c community. IIASA i s p r o v i d i n g a forum, c o n c e n t r a t i n g o n t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l a s p e c t s of g l o b a l models. Among o u r own s c i e n t i s t s and s u p p o r t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s t h e r e i s a g r e a t

d i f f e r e n c e o f o p i n i o n a b o u t t h e m e r i t s of l a r g e - s c a l e g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g ; it r a n g e s from e c s t a t i c s u p p o r t t o n e g a t i v e s k e p t i c i s m

"The c o n c e r n i n a l l t h e s e g l o b a l m o d e l l i n g e f f o r t s i s f o r problems o f mankind i n t h e d i s t a n t f u t u r e , and t h o s e c o n c e r n s a r e c o n c e r n s o f everybody. They f o c u s on a s p e c t s o f f o o d , a g r i c u l t u r e , and t h e q u a l i t y of l i f e ; t h e r e a r e t h e no-growth and t h e f u l l - g r o w t h a d v o c a t e s , and we f e e l we s h o u l d n o t i g n o r e t h i s f i e l d of e n d e a v o r . We do n o t want t o f a v o r p r e m a t u r e l y

one group over another. That is why we want to review in a series of symposia various points of view, those of the

developed, the developing, the socialist, and the non-socialist countries; we want to hear what the arguments are and to learn about the various models. We want to obtain here the best documentation of these modelling efforts so that advocates of different points of view can come to understand other models.

The tendency is for too much rhetoric and not enough scientific substance, and we are therefore trying to bolster the scientific side by having clear documentation readily accessible. This documentation, including computer software, will be made available to all who are interested in the developed and developing countries, in organizations, and so forth.

"We are already working on segments of these problems from the bottom up, for example our work in the fields of energy and water. Other attempts are being made from the top down.

We do not know how much top-down modelling we will do at IIASA in the future. The present position is to find out what is being done in the field and what has to be done in order to ascertain what can be done here [at IIASA]."

PART I: PAPERS PRESENTED AND DISCUSSIONS Introduction and Basic Assumptions of the Model

Amilcar Herrera

When tne complex characteristics of the contemporary world are analyzed, it can be seen that almost two thirds of mankind live in misery and scarcity. Only recently has the minority begun to perceive the negative effects of over-consumption produced by increasing economic growth that is destroying the human and natural environment. This inequality, which has divided the world into developed and undeveloped countries, does not recognize rigid political boundaries. Some privileged minorities of Third World countries enjoy consumption levels equivalent to those of the upper classes of the developed countries, while considerable sectors of the population of the developed countries have not yet reached the full satisfaction of their most basic material and cultural needs.

The world is experiencing exponential population growth and consumption and an accelerated increase in environmental pollution, the two latter phenomena being produced mainly in the industrialized countries. For the first time in history, we are faced with global problems which can be solved only by action on a global scale.

As a result of this new global approach, some of the ideas of the classic economists such as Ricardo and Malthus are again current; according to Malthus the scarcity of natural resources would lead eventually to a decreasing social return of the economic effort, with the consequent delay and eventual halt of growth. He also predicted that the growth of the population and consumption (which have reached unprecedented levels) will exhaust the earth's natural resources; according to him this will probably occur in the near future. Although the natural resources may not be exhausted before a historically significative time period, pollution and the progressive deterioration of the environment will provoke the collapse of the ecosystem. In both cases, the result would be the same: catastrophic halt of growth, a massive increase in the rate of mortality of the population and the general lowering of the average standard of life to conditions existing prior to the industrial revolution.

These ideas caused various reactions, which in general terms might be divided into two types. On the one hand, there is the conviction that only a solidarious effort of all mankind can successfully confront the dual problems of increasing the living standards of the disposesed masses, and generating forms of progress and value systems to halt the deterioration of the human and natural environment. The second reaction, found mainly in the developed countries, makes population growth

t h e f u n d a m e n t a l c a u s e o f w o r l d p r o b l e m s . They b e l i e v e t h a t t h e c o n t r o l o f t h i s g r o w t h i s a n i n d i s p e n s a b l e p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r a v o i d i n g t h e c a t a s t r o p h e . The c o n t r o l o f p o l l u t i o n , t h e r a t i o n a l u s e o f t h e r e s o u r c e s , a n d t h e l i k e a r e o n l y c o m p l e m e n t a r y

c o r r e c t i v e m e a s u r e s .

T h o s e who s h a r e t h i s p o s i t i o n d o n o t d o u b t t h e c e n t r a l v a l u e s o f t h e d e v e l o p e d w o r l d . T h e i r m a i n c o n t e n t i o n s o m e t i m e s c l e a r l y s t a t e d i s t h a t t h e r e a r e " n a t u r a l " b a r r i e r s t o e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a n d t h e s e g i v e l i t t l e h o p e t o t h e b a c k w a r d c o u n t r i e s o f r e a c h i n g t h e l e v e l s o f w e l f a r e e n j o y e d by t h e a d v a n c e d c o u n t r i e s .

T h e s e f a t a l i s t i c s t a t e m e n t s c o n t a i n a f u n d a m e n t a l f a l l a c y . Where t h e r e i s a g l o b a l s e t o f p r o b l e m s , t h e r e e x i s t s s u f f i c i e n t d e g r e e s o f f r e e d o m t h a t make p o s s i b l e d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s . The s o l u t i o n c h o s e n i s a l w a y s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s o f t h o s e i n v o l v e d i n t h e d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s .

When M a l t h u s s t a t e d h i s t h e o r y o f s c a r c i t y ( w h i c h h a s a s c i e n t i f i c b a s e t h a t i s n e i t h e r b e t t e r n o r w o r s e t h a n t h e o n e o n w h i c h t h e c u r r e n t c a t a s t r o p h i s t i c p o s i t i o n s a r e f o u n d e d ) , t h e " s o l u t i o n " h e p o s t u l a t e d was n o t t h e o n l y p o s s i b l e o n e a s h i s t o r y l a t e r d e m o n s t r a t e s . H i s t o r y a l s o showed t h a t M a r x ' s r e f u t a t i o n , w h i c h comes a b o u t a f e w d e c a d e s a f t e r M a l t h u s , was n o t v a l i d . V i e w i n g t h e s i t u a t i o n w i t h h i s t o r i c a l p e r s p e c t i v e , we now see t h a t M a l t h u s ' p o s i t i o n was a d v a n t a g e o u s t o t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e B r i t i s h d o m i n a n t c l a s s e s . M a r x ' s r e f u t a t i o n d e r i v e s n o t s o much f r o m a d i f f e r e n t a p p r e c i a t i o n o f " r e a l i t y "

( w h i c h d i d n o t g o beyond a t h e o r y w i t h scarce e m p i r i c a l

f o u n d a t i o n ) b u t r a t h e r f r o m a d i f f e r e n t c o n c e p t i o n o f t h e f o r c e s t h a t d e t e r m i n e t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f m a n k i n d .

M a l t h u s ' t h e o r y was i m p l i c i t l y o r e x p l i c i t l y u s e d by t h e d o m i n a n t c l a s s e s o f h i s t i m e , a n d i t i n f l u e n c e d s a l a r y a n d s o c i a l p o l i c i e s d u r i n g m o s t o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y . I t s f i n a l g o a l was t h e m a i n t e n a n c e o f t h e s t a t u s q u o .

The f o r m u l a t i o n o f " a l t e r n a t i v e s o l u t i o n s " stemmed f r o m a n i d e o l o g i c a l c l i m a t e s t i m u l a t e d by t h e s t r u g g l e o f s o c i a l c l a s s e s a n d g r o u p s w i l l i n g t o r e j e c t a n o r d e r w h i c h k e p t them a t subhuman l i f e l e v e l s . The a c k n o w l e d g m e n t t h a t m i s e r y Was a c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , r a t h e r t h a n a p r o d u c t o f a " u n m o d i f i a b l e n a t u r a l l a w , " becomes a d y n a m i c e l e m e n t o f c h a n g e s i n c e i t e m e r g e s a t a h i s t o r i c a l moment when t h e o p p r e s s e d s o c i a l s e c t o r s become a w a r e o f t h e i r s t r e n g t h a n d o b j e c t i v e s . They a r e t h e o n e s who, a f t e r a n u n c e a s i n g s t r u g g l e , w i l l b e a b l e t o m o d i f y some o f t h e n e g a t i v e t r a i t s o f t h e s o c i e t y g e n e r a t e d by t h e i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n .

I n many r e s p e c t s t h e c o n t e m p o r a r y s i t u a t i o n i s s i m i l a r . Even t h o u g h o n e may a s s u m e t h a t t h e c u r r e n t c o u r s e o f m a n k i n d p r e s e n t s t h e d a n g e r o f a c o l l a p s e o r s e r i o u s l a c k s o f e q u i l i b r i u m i n t h e n a t u r a l e c o s y s t e m , t h i s d o e s n o t i m p l y t h a t t h e r e i s a s i n g l e s o l u t i o n t o a v o i d t h i s . The e n o r m o u s c o m p l e x i t y o f t h e

s o c i a l o r g a n i z a t i o n , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e p r o g r e s s o f s c i e n c e and t e c h n o l o g y , means t h a t t h e d e g r e e o f f r e e d o m p o s s i b l e f o r t h e

"human s y s t e m " i s a t p r e s e n t much g r e a t e r t h a n a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e n i n e t e e n t h c e n t u r y .

The s o l u t i o n s now b e i n g p r o p o s e d by t h e a d v a n c e d c o u n t r i e s a r e c o n d i t i o n e d , a s i n ~ a l t h u s ' t i m e s , by t h e need t o p u t them i n t o a p a r t i c u l a r s o c i o - e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l c o n t e x t . They r e s p o n d t o t h e i n t e r e s t s o f t h e d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s a n d , o n l y a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e s e i n t e r e s t s , a r e t h e y p o s e d a s u n i q u e a n d p r e d e t e r m i n e d . Even t h e i r h u m a n i s t i c " v e r s i o n " ( t h a t which p o s t u l a t e s a r e t u r n t o n a t u r e , w i t h t h e r e j e c t i o n o f t h e

" s o p h i s t i c a t e d " and m a s s i v e t e c h n o l o g i e s a s i n t r i n s i c a l l y

h a r m f u l ) e x p r e s s e s t h e v i e w p o i n t o f c o u n t r i e s a n d c e r t a i n s o c i a l s e c t o r s w i t h i n them which a r e now p e r c e i v i n g t h e n e g a t i v e e f f e c t s o f o v e r - c o n s u m p t i o n and t h e p o t e n t i a l d a n g e r o f l a r g e m a s s e s o f u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s g a i n i n g a c c e s s t o l e v e l s o f w e l f a r e . However, t h e d a n g e r i s n o t i n t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f t e c h n o l o g i c a l p r o g r e s s b u t r a t h e r i n i t s s o c i a l u s e .

The B a r i l o c h e Model s t a r t s f r o m t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t a t l e a s t f o r t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e , t h e main o b s t a c l e s t o t h e h a r m o n i o u s d e v e l o p m e n t o f mankind a r e n o t p h y s i c a l ; r a t h e r t h e y a r e s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l i n n a t u r e and d e p e n d on t h e p r e s e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n o f power b o t h a t a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l and n a t i o n a l l e v e l . T h i s i s m a n i f e s t e d i n t h e g r o w i n g i n e q u a l i t y w o r l d w i d e and w i t h i n e a c h c o u n t r y , p a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h i n t h e u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s . T h i s i n no way i g n o r e s t h e f a c t t h a t i f t h e c u r r e n t t e n d e n c i e s o f mankind c o n t i n u e , t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t m i g h t become a p r o b l e m o f g r e a t m a g n i t u d e . I t w i l l p r o b a b l y n o t a p p e a r i n t h e f o r m o f a n a b s o l u t e e x h a u s t i o n o f n o n - r e n e w a b l e n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s , o r o f a l e t h a l i n c r e a s e i n p o l l u t i o n . However, t h e g e n e r a l d e t e r i o r a t i o n o f t h e n a t u r a l human e n v i r o n m e n t g e n e r a t e d by a c i v i l i z a t i o n , which h a s a s o n e o f i t s main t a r g e t s t o i n c r e a s e t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f m a t e r i a l g o o d s u p t o i r r a t i o n a l l i m i t s , may c r e a t e l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s a l m o s t a s c a t a s t r o p h i c a s t h e M a l t h u s i a n s c a r c i t y .

W e m u s t a c c e p t t h e f a c t t h a t m a n k i n d ' s e f f e c t o n t h e p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t d e p e n d s b a s i c a l l y o n t h e s o c i a l o r g a n i z a - t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s a d o p t e d , and on t h e a c c e p t e d v a l u e s s y s t e m . Much o f t h e v a l u e s o f t h e p r e s e n t w o r l d a r e i n t r i n s i c a l l y d e s t r u c t i v e t o t h e e c o s y s t e m , j u s t a s t h e y a r e d e s t r u c t i v e t o man h i m s e l f who i s overwhelmed by a n e v e r i n c r e a s i n g a l i e n a t i o n . Mankind a n d t h e p h y s i c a l e n v i r o n m e n t ( w h e r e it i s i n s e r t e d ) c o n s t i t u t e a s i n g l e s y s t e m , which c a n o n l y b e d e s c r i b e d u s i n g s o c i o - e c o n o m i c and p h y s i c a l v a r i a b l e s .

The u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s , w h i c h a r e t h e main v i c t i m s o f t h e s y s t e m , f i n d t h e m s e l v e s i n a h i s t o r i c a l s i t u a t i o n w h i c h c o m p e l s them t o f o r m u l a t e s o l u t i o n s t h a t t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t t h e p o s s i b l e d e g r e e s o f f r e e d o m ; it i s t h e s e c o u n t r i e s whose

i n t e r e s t s c o i n c i d e w i t h t h e n e e d f o r c h a n g i n g a s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e w h i c h o b j e c t i v e l y h i n d e r s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f mankind.

The following sections of the Report sketch a possible world in which there are new ways for human development. The main objective is to initiate discussions which take into account some of the most important factors involved in the global

problems faced by mankind.

BASIC ASSUMPTIONS

The proposals contained in the Model to overcome the

obstacles to the development of mankind start from the following main premises:

a) The catastrophies predicted by some current models (whether mathematical or not) constitute an everyday reality for a great part of mankind. Starvation, illiteracy, premature death, lack of adequate housing miserable living conditions are the common fate of the major part of the inhabitants of the under-developed countries. We should not wait 80 or 100 years until an eventual exhaustion of the natural resources, or pollution make the great centers of the developed countries feel their effects. Thus the priority goal should be to avoid these catastrophies. The less advanced societies cannot progress by copying the patterns of the developed countries because socio- political conditions can not be duplicated and these patterns are not desirable.

b) A destructive value system has produced the detrimental and irrational use of natural resources and the

deterioration of the environment, both characteristics mainly derived from the growth of consumption of the developed nations and of the privileged minorities of the developing countries. Thus solutions to these problems cannot be found by applying corrective measures, but rather by creating a society intrinsically compatible with its environment.

C) NO policy for the preservation of the ecosystem or for the reduction of consumption of natural resources can be effectively carried out at the world level until each human being has reached an acceptable level of life. This does not mean that no action is needed until this level has been reached; it does mean that policies might be successful only in the transitional stage, and to the extent that they form an integral part of those measures aimed at improving the cultural and material conditions of the submerged masses of mankind.

d) The privileged sectors of mankind -essentially those of the developed countries- must reduce their rate of economic growth in order to decrease their misuse of

n a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s and t h e e n v i r o n m e n t , and a l s o t o c o u n t e r a c t t h e a l i e n a t i n g e f f e c t s of e x c e s s i v e c o n s u m p t i o n .

e ) The d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s s h o u l d a l l o c a t e p a r t of t h e economic s u r p l u s t o a i d T h i r d World c o u n t r i e s i n overcoming t h e i r c u r r e n t s t a g n a t i o n owing i n p a r t t o p a s t and i n some c a s e s c u r r e n t , e x p l o i t a t i o n o f t h e s e c o u n t r i e s .

f ) The most r a t i o n a l method t o c o n t r o l t h e a c c e l e r a t e d growth of t h e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e u n d e r d e v e l o p e d c o u n t r i e s i s t o improve t h e g e n e r a l l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s .

The model h a s been b u i l t around f o u r b a s i c a s s u m p t i o n s :

a ) The f i n a l g o a l p u r s u e d i s a n e g a l i t a r i a n w o r l d s o c i e t y , b o t h s o c i a l l y and i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y . The b a s i c p r i n c i p l e i s t h e acknowledgment t h a t e a c h human b e i n g , by t h e mere f a c t of e x i s t e n c e h a s i n a l i e n a b l e r i g h t s t o t h e

s a t i s f a c t i o n of a l l b a s i c needs- e . g . , f o o d , h e a l t h , h o u s i n g , e d u c a t i o n . These n e e d s a r e c o n s i d e r e d b a s i c b e c a u s e w i t h o u t a n a d e q u a t e l e v e l of s a t i s f a c t i o n o f e a c h , a d i g n i f i e d and a c t i v e p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n t h e human r a c e becomes i m p o s s i b l e ; t h e y a r e a l s o

c o n s i d e r e d i n v a r i a n t , a s t h e y a p p l y t o e a c h human b e i n g i n d e p e n d e n t of h i s b e l o n g i n g t o a g i v e n c u l t u r e , h i s o r i g i n , r a c e , s e x , and s o f o r t h .

b ) While t h e r e a r e many o t h e r a s p i r a t i o n s and n e e d s , t h e y d i f f e r q u a l i t a t i v e l y from t h e s e b a s i c n e e d s . The Model d o e s n o t f o r m a l i z e them, s i n c e t h e mode of

s a t i s f a c t i o n of many of t h e s e v a r i e s w i t h e a c h s o c i e t y and w i t h t i m e ; a l s o t h e Model d o e s n o t w i s h t o d e t e r m i n e them.

C ) Each human b e i n g p a r t i c i p a t e s i n f u l l i n a l l s o c i a l d e c i s i o n s . T h i s i s a n e s s e n t i a l c o n d i t i o n t h a t p r e v e n t s e q u a l i t y from becoming a mere m a t e r i a l l e v e l i n g .

d ) The s o c i e t y i n t h e Model i s a "non-consumist" s o c i e t y , t h a t i s , a s o c i e t y i n which consumption i s n o t a v a l u e i n i t s e l f .

The l e v e l s o f s a t i s f a c t i o n of t h e b a s i c n e e d s d e s c r i b e d i n e a c h of t h e v a r i o u s s e c t o r s of t h e Model s h o u l d n o t b e c o n s i d e r e d t h e d e s i d e r a t u m f o r t h e f u t u r e of mankind; t h e y r e p r e s e n t o n l y a r e a s o n a b l e g o a l , i n a c c o r d w i t h p r e s e n t p o s s i b i l i t i e s . Once t h e p r o p o s e d l e v e l s a r e a c h i e v e d , what happens t o t h e economic s u r p l u s o r how t h e s u r p l u s w i l l be used w i l l depend on t h e d e c i s i o n s t a k e n by a s o c i e t y a l r e a d y l i b e r a t e d from backwardness and m i s e r y . The Model d o e s n o t a t t e m p t t o p r e d i c t t h e s e

d e c i s i o n s , b u t it i s l i k e l y t h a t t h e y i n c l u d e s u c h c u l t u r a l o p t i o n s a s i n c r e a s i n g t h e l e i s u r e t i m e , r a t h e r t h a n a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e consumption o f m a t e r i a l g o o d s .

In summary, the Model assumes that the egalitarian satisfactions of the basic needs and the participation of all individuals in the social decisions are indispensable

prerequisites for full access to all higher forms of human activity. It aims at a mobilizing goal; it does not attempt to formulate a complete theory which defines either system of social organizations, or a plan pre-established for these

purposes. Such a claim would be illusory, dangerous and probably impossible to substantiate. All historical progress

simultaneously solves problems and generates new ones; thus posing new possibilities and challenges.