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Energy Research & Social Science
j ou rn a l h o m epa g e :w w w . e l s e v i e r . c o m / l o c a t e / e r s s
Original research article
Community acceptance of large-scale solar energy installations in developing countries: Evidence from Morocco
Susanne Hanger
a,b,∗, Nadejda Komendantova
a,b, Boris Schinke
c, Driss Zejli
d,e, Ahmed Ihlal
f, Anthony Patt
a,baSwissFederalInstituteofTechnology(ETH),DepartmentofEnvironmentalSystemsScience,ClimatePolicyGroup,Zürich,Switzerland
bInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),Laxenburg,Austria
cGermanwatch,Bonn,Germany
dMoroccanSocietyfortheDevelopmentofRenewableEnergy(SMADER),Casablanca,Morocco
eNationalSchoolofAppliedSciences,IbnTofaïlUniversity,Kenitra,Morocco
fLaboratoireMatériauxetEnergiesRenouvelables,FacultyofSciences,UniversityIbnZohr,Agadir,Morocco
a r t i c l e i n f o
Articlehistory:
Received28July2015
Receivedinrevisedform25January2016 Accepted28January2016
Keywords:
Climatechangemitigation Concentratedsolarpower Communityacceptance Publicacceptance MiddleEast NorthAfrica
a b s t r a c t
RenewableenergyproductionisclimbingthepublicagendainmanycountriesintheMiddleEastand NorthAfrica(MENAregion),forreasonsofenergysecurity,independenceandlocalvaluecreation.While technicalandeconomicbarriersarelargelyunderstood,inthispaperweinvestigatetheissueofcommu- nityacceptance.Insodoing,weexploretheimportanceofrelevantdriversofcommunityacceptancesuch aslevelofexpectedsocio-economicandenvironmentalimpacts,proceduralanddistributivejustice,and trust.Weconducted232face-to-faceinterviewswiththelocalpopulationinOuarzazateinMorocco,the buildingsiteofaflagshipprojectforconcentratedsolarpowerintheMENAregion.Wefindthatcommu- nityacceptanceisalmostuniversal,particularlybecausesolarpowerisperceivedtobeenvironmentally friendly.Atthesametimeperceivedlevelofknowledgeabouttheprojectisverylow,whichispositively linkedtothehighlevelofacceptance.Ourdatasuggestthattheremaybesomesocialdesirabilitybias distortingcommunityacceptance;onlylong-termexperiencewiththeprojectwillshowwhetherhopes forjobcreationwillbefulfilledandhighlevelsofacceptancecanbemaintained.
©2016PublishedbyElsevierLtd.
1. Introduction
AcrossthecountriesoftheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA region),nationalgovernmentshavesetambitioustargetstoobtain a substantialshare oftheirenergy mix fromrenewable energy sources,suchassolar,aswellason-shoreandoff-shorewind.Many oftheseprojectsinvolvesomedegreeofinternationalcooperation, suchasmulti-lateralordonorfinancing,orenergytrade.Several studiesshowevidence thattechnologicalcapacities arealready existing[33,26].Whilethefirstsetofpioneerinstallationsareby nowoperating,severalotherlarge-scaleprojectsareplannedor arecurrentlyunder construction.In Morocco,in thecontext of theambitiousMoroccanSolarPlan,severalsiteshavebeeniden- tifiedforthelarge-scalecollectionofsolarpower.Atthenational levellargeexpectationsareattachedtotheseprojects,withrespect toenergy security,climate changemitigation,self-reliance and
∗ Correspondingauthorat:ETHZürich,DepartmentofEnvironmentalSystems Science,ClimatePolicyGroup,BuildingCHN,FloorJ,Office72.1,Universitätstrasse 22,CH-8092Zürich,Switzerland.
E-mailaddress:susanne.hanger@usys.ethz.ch(S.Hanger).
balanceofpayments,aswellasanumberofsocio-economicfac- torsalongtherenewablesvaluechain[38].Thefirstofthesesitesto bedevelopedistheNoorIconcentratedsolarpower(CSP)plantin Ouarzazate,aflagshipprojectfortheentireMENAregion.Thesuc- cessesandchallengesassociatedwiththisunprecedentedproject intheregionwillbedefiningfortheinternationalsupportforfuture developmentofrenewableenergytechnologies(RET)intheregion.
Manypotentialbarriershavebeenidentifiedthatmayimpedeor slowdowntheintroductionofrenewableenergyandtheassociated infrastructureforenergygenerationandtransmission.Aprimary barriertohavebeenidentifiedisprojectfinancing,givenrisksfor bothprivateandpublicinvestmentthatareassociatednotonly withnewtechnologies,butalsoforlong-livedinfrastructureina regionthatisnotnecessarilyviewedasthemostpoliticallystable [29].Abarrierthathasfrequentlyarisenindevelopedcountries,but whichremainsunder-researchedindevelopingcountries,isthat ofpublicacceptanceandassociatedpermitting.InEuropeancoun- tries,forexample,thishasnotonlydelayedtherealizationofmany projects,buthasalsoputentireprojectsinjeopardy.Indeed,the civilsocietysectorhasidentifiedcommunityawarenessandaccep- tanceasimportantbottle-neckforthesuccessfulimplementation http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.01.010
2214-6296/©2016PublishedbyElsevierLtd.
oflarge-scalerenewableenergyproductionintheMENAregion (e.g.,Refs.[30,38]).
Oneparticularlyimportantaspectforthesuccessfulimplemen- tationofrenewableenergy productionistheacceptancebythe communitiesinthedirectvicinityofrenewablepowerplants.Inthe academicandgreyliterature,localpublicresistanceagainstinfras- tructureprojects is knownas thenot-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) syndrome,whichinturnisfrequentlyusedtorefertothebroader termofcommunityacceptance.Theseissueshavebeenaddressed mostlyinthecontextofwindenergy(e.g.Refs.[11,39,43,12,17,18]
andtransmissionlines[5]inEuropeandNorthAmerica.Fordevel- opingandemergingeconomiesingeneralandtheMENAcountries inparticular,thereisonlylimitedevidenceontheroleofpublic perceptionandcommunityacceptanceofrenewables.
Theliteratureshowshowcommunityacceptanceisinfluenced byanumberoffactors,includingexpectedcostsandbenefits,social, economicandenvironmentalrisks,trust andperceivedfairness, distancetotheproposedpowerplantandtheregulatorycontext [39,36].It isinteresting tofindoutwhethertheseindependent variablesareequallyimportantforcommunityacceptanceinthe contextof MENAcountries,in thelightof asocio-cultural con- textthatissignificantlydifferentfromthatofEuropeanandNorth Americancountries.Theseare,forexamplethemuchcloserlink betweenthestateandreligion,aswellaspatriarchalandauthori- tarianpublicandprivateinstitutions.
Theaimofthispaperistoidentifywhetherandtowhatextent communityacceptanceisrelevantintheMoroccancontext,taking thisasacountrythatisattheforefrontofRETdevelopmentinthe MENAregion,andtofindoutthemaindriversforpositiveattitudes orresentmentstowardsrenewableenergyinstallationinacommu- nity.TheacceptanceofCSPinstallationsbylocalcommunitiesand theirperceivedbenefitiskeyforthelegitimizationoftheseandsim- ilarendeavors.Thisresearchisthusrelevanttounravelpotential forfutureconflictandbarrierstothelong-termsuccessoflarge- scalerenewableenergyproductionnotonlyinMorocco,butalso inotherMENAcountries.
2. Background
2.1. TheroleofCSPinMENAandMorocco
Concentratedsolarpower(CSP)isapotentiallyattractivesource ofrenewableelectricityforloadcentersneararidregions[6,21].
Utilizingthermalstorage,CSPplantscanoperateafterthesungoes down.Pfenningeretal.[25]demonstratedthatanetworkofCSP plantscouldsupplybaseloadandload-followingelectricity,atlev- elsofreliabilitycomparabletofossilfuelornuclearpowerplants, and atcostscomparable tophotovoltaic (PV) oroffshore wind.
Moroccohasbeenidentified asanidealcountryfor CSPdevel- opment[27,34].First,thereisanopportunityforCSPtoreplace existingdieselgenerators,whicharesubstantiallymoreexpensive tooperate,tosatisfylocalneeds.Second,thecountryisseparate fromloadcentersinEuropeonlybytheStraitofGibraltar,mak- ingexportsthroughSpainaneconomicpossibility.Third,Morocco liestothewestofmostofEurope,meaningthetimeofpeaksolar energycapturecorrespondswellwithlateafternoonandevening peakloadperiods.
Atthesametime MoroccoistheonlyNorth Africancountry withoutany noteworthyfossil energy reserves.It must import almostallofitsprimaryenergy[7].In2008,importsaccountedfor 98%ofnationalenergyuseandfor11percentofGDP[14].Against thebackgroundofrisingenergydemandandlimiteddomesticfos- silfuelreserves,theuseanddevelopmentof renewableenergy technologieshavebecomeamajorpriorityinthenationalenergy strategyofMorocco[16].By2020,renewableenergyisprojectedto
accountfor42%ofthe14,580MWpowercapacityinMorocco.The totalrenewableenergyproductionwillbeequallysharedbysolar, windandhydropower.ThisincludestheMoroccanSolarPlan,a 2000MWsolarpowerprojectlaunchedonNovember2,2009.To aiditsimplementationMoroccolaunchedalegalandregulatory frameworkfortheenergysector.Therenewableenergylaw,the lawforthecreationoftheNationalAgencyforthePromotionof RenewableEnergyandEnergyEfficiency(ADEREE)andalawofthe MoroccanAgencyforSolarEnergy(MASEN),whichistheprime contractorfortheenvisagedsolarpowerprojects[16].According toitshighdirectnormalirradiation(DNI)potential,Ouarzazatewas chosentohostthefirstpowerplantsforeseenintheMoroccanSolar Plan.
International investors and developers, such as the African DevelopmentBank (AfDB),theWorld Bank(WB),theEuropean Investment Bank (EIB) and others are supporting the Moroc- can government by means of loans and grants. Therefore, the project is subject to strictenvironmental and social standards.
Environmentaland social impactassessmentshavebeenissued orcommissionedbyMASEN[22]theAfDB[2]aswellasbythe SaudiArabiancompanyACWAheading theconsortium[1].The NGOGermanwatchandtheWuppertalInstitute[38]initiatedan even more comprehensive investigationon the impacts of the projectonlocallivelihoods.Theyattestlocalstakeholdersanoverall positiveattitudetowardstheproject,withthemainexpectations andconcernsbeingrelatedtogeneratingemploymentand local valuecreation,accesstoinformationandparticipation,aswellas potentialnegativeimpactsduetocompetingwateruses.Theyalso reflectpositivelyonMASEN’seffortstocommunicatewithlocal stakeholders,andtochannelbenefitsintothecommunitiesinthe vicinityofNoorIthroughaSocialDevelopmentPlan,whichwasset uptoallocateanddistributethefinancialmeans,whichresulted fromtheacquisitionoflandfortheprojectfromlocalcommuni- ties.Whileinthecontextofthementionedstudiesthefocuswas onkeystakeholder groups,inthispaperweinvestigatepercep- tionsandattitudesofthegeneralpublicandtheresultinglevelsof acceptance.
2.2. Driversofpublicacceptance
In the academic literature a variety of terms are used to describeacceptanceissues.Thesetermsareoftenusedinconsis- tentlyorinterchangeablyalthoughtheyrefertodifferentnotions.
Thevocabularyincludespublicperception(e.g.,Refs.[28,17]),pub- licacceptance(e.g.,Refs.[43,10]),socialacceptance(e.g.,Ref.[41]), NIMBYism(e.g.,Refs.[12,24]),willingness-to-pay/use[3,42],and publicsupport[35,9].Bateletal.[4]highlightsthatanagreement onhowtomeasureacceptanceismissing,andcriticizestheresult- inglackofcomparabilityofconceptsandresultsregardingpublic acceptance.Weconsiderthetermacceptancetoincludearangeof potentialattitudestowardsRETthatareotherthanactiveoppo- sition,includingapathy,passiveacceptance,approval,andfinally activesupport.Inthisstudywedonotinvestigatethesedistinctions indetail.
Acceptancecantakeplaceatdifferentobjectlevels,withrespect totechnology,infrastructureorapplications;andatthesametime indifferentarenas,suchaspolitical spheres,inmarkets,andin communities[39,32].Ourfocusisatthenexusofinfrastructure andcommunities,whereweexamineseveralfactorsthatinfluence thelevelofacceptance.Thefirstofthese,positiveandnegative socialandeconomicimpactsofrenewablepowerinstallations,is frequentlymentionedasdriversforpublicacceptance(e.g.,Refs.
[24,15]).Forexample,twostudies,oneonGermanyandanother one onChina,identified how perceptions of costs and benefits ofRETcanimpactacceptance.Bymeansofhouseholdsurveysin threeGermancasestudyareas(eachaddressingeitheralargePV
installation,abiomassplantorwindturbines)Zöllneretal.[43]
identifyindividualperceptionsofcostsandbenefitsasthestrongest predictorforreportedacceptance. IntheChinesecontext, Yuan etal.[41]includecost–benefitconcernsinacasestudyofpublic acceptanceofwindpower,butfoundthatonly15%ofrespondents consideredthistobethemostimportant benefitof developing windenergy.InthecaseoftheMENAregionandparticularlyina socio-economicallydisadvantagedruralarea,suchasOuarzazate, weassumethat expectedsocio-economicbenefitsmightplay a majorroleinfavoroftheplannedCSPplant.
Environmental impacts can also play a role. There is only slightdocumentation(e.g.Refs.[12,24])oftheeffectsofpositive andnegativeenvironmentalimpactsbeingdriversofcommunity acceptance,which leadsus tobelievethat it is oftenimplicitly assumedthatrenewablepowerisinherentlyenvironmentallyben- eficial and thus canbe booked in favor of installing additional capacities.ForacasestudyofShandong,China,Yuanetal.[41]iden- tifiedenvironmentalbenefitsasthemostsalientadvantagesinthe respondentsview.Weassumethatinlessdevelopedregionssocio- economic issues are more salient than negativeenvironmental impacts.However,giventhedecadelongdroughtintheOuarzazate regionweexpectwater-relatedimpactstobeofparticularconcern tothepopulation.Also,thelandrequirementsforutility-scaleRET projectsaresubstantial.Landisanimportantlivelihoodresource andthusaconstrainingfactorespeciallyinruralareasthatdepend verymuchonsubsistenceagriculture.Theadvantageacrossthe MENAregionisthatdesertareasprovideampleland,whichisfree fromcompetingusesandscarcelypopulated.Controversiesabout aestheticsordedicationtootherpurposesarethuslesslikely.
Relatedtotheperceivedeconomicrisksandbenefits,distribu- tivejusticeorthedistributionofsocio-economicrisksandbenefits among differentsocial groups maybe a major concern among thepopulationandmayinfluencepublicperceptionoflarge-scale renewableinstallations[12].Somewhatrelatedaswellistheissue ofproceduraljustice.Firestoneetal. [15]proposesa setof key principlesofproceduraljustice,which aretheabilitytoexpress opinionsfreely,tohavea voiceand tobeheard,tofullypartic- ipatein theprocess,tohaveaccesstoadequateinformation,to betreatedwithrespect,andtohaveanunbiaseddecisionmaker.
Twoof theseare mostoften reflected in empirical studies: (1) Theinvolvementofdifferent(local)stakeholdergroups andthe consultationofthegeneralpublicparticularlyinthesitingphase [36,43,45].(2)Theaccurateandaccessibleinformationprovidedto thepopulationfromearlyonintheplanningphaseofprojects(e.g., Refs.[20,43,24]).
Likewise,trustisacrucialelementthattakeslongtobuildand whichiseasytolose[31].Wolsink[37]identifiedtrustasacrucial elementwhenitcomestobuildingsocialacceptance.Insomecases trustwasfoundtobecloselylinkedtotheoriginofthedevelopers andwhethertheyareinsidersoroutsiders,i.e.,whethertheyknow theregionwellandseelevelwiththelocalstakeholdersandthe generalpublic[19,20,13].Forfactorsinfluencingacceptanceofnew technologiesmorebroadly,Guptaetal.[47]foundtrusttobethe secondmostexploredfactorafterperceivedrisk.
Geographicalfactorscanalsoplayarole.NIMBYisoftenused asashorthandtermforlocalopposition,andusedtoexplainlocal oppositionasbasedonselfishness,irrationalityorignorance[8], butalsoreferstothefactthatindividualswhogenerallysupport RETmightstill beagainstconcrete projectsintheirclosevicin- ity[12,24].ConsequentlyNIMBYsuggeststhatopposition/negative attitudesincreasewithdecreasingdistanceofaresidencetothe locationoftherenewablepowerplant.Thisconcepthassuffered inpopularityasotherfactorshavebeenfoundtohaveadditional ormoreexplanatorypower[12,35].However,theremightstillbe valueinaccountingfordistanceindifferentculturalcontexts.For instance,Guoetal.[46]foundforChinathatdistancedoesindeed
Fig.1. Modelofcommunityacceptance.Source:owndesign.Wehypothesizethat communityacceptanceispositivelyinfluencedby(1)avaryinglevelofinformation (awareness),(2)theextentofpublicinvolvement,(3)highlevelsoftrustindevel- opersandinternationalinvestors,(4)expectedpositivesocio-economicimpacts, (5)expectedpositiveenvironmentalimpacts,(6)expecteddistributionofpositive impacts(equity)and(7)increasingdistanceoftherespondentshomefromthe projectsight.
matterandwhilepeopledonotappreciatewindparksintheirback yardtheywouldliketohaveitintheirowncountyratherthanelse- whereinChina.Landscapeaestheticsare,apartfromtheNIMBY argument,mostfrequentlyconsideredtobeanimportantdriver ofpublicacceptance.Wolsink[36]usingdifferentEuropeansurvey dataonpublicacceptancefrom1986until2002identifiedvisual evaluationtobethedominantfactorforpublicacceptanceissues.
Negativeimpactsonlandscapeandvisibilityofenergygeneration andtransmissioninfrastructurearealsoreportedinDevine-Wright [12]andPetrova[24].
Mostof thesedrivershave beenidentified inthecontext of countriesinEuropeandNorthAmericaandweretestedfrequently fortheacceptanceofwindpoweronandoff-shoreandinafew casesalsoforsolarpower(e.g.,Carlisleetal.[9]investigatingpub- licopiniononutilityscalesolarinCalifornia)andcarboncapture andstorage(Oltraetal.[23]elicitinglayperceptionsthroughfocus groupsinSpain).Inthecontextofdevelopingcountriesandemerg- ingeconomies inparticulartheacademic focussofarhasbeen ontheprivateuseofrenewabletechnologies,whileresearchon communityacceptanceofrenewableshasstartedtoemergeonly recently(e.g.,[41,40,44]).Thereislittlesystematicresearchonfac- torsinfluencingcommunityacceptance.Moreover,duetotheafore mentionedlackofclarityofsimilarconceptsitisdifficulttoclearly identifydifferencesbetweenrelevantdriversindifferentpolitical andculturalcontexts.Basedonthisliteratureitseemsthatthe driversinvestigated tobesimilaracrossdifferentcountriesand developmentcontextsacrosstheglobe.
3. Method
3.1. Modelofacceptanceandindependentvariables
WestudiedcommunityacceptancefortheNoorIsolarproject inMoroccousingahouseholdsurvey.Indoingso,westartedwith atheoreticalmodel ofsuchacceptance, asameansofstructur- ingquestionsonahouseholdsurveyinstrument.Fig.1provides aschematicofthat model.Thelefthandvariables inthefigure refertofactorsassociatedwiththeprojectdevelopmentprocess.
Theseincludeawareness andlevelof information,which previ- ousfindingswouldsuggesttoberelevantintheremotesettingof theNoorIprojectandinapoliticalcultureoftop–downplanning anddecisionmaking.Thiscanbeseenaspertainingtotheabove described procedural justicedriver. Proceduraljustice refersto informationpracticesofdevelopersaswellasactiveparticipation ofcitizensintheplanninganddevelopmentprocess,whiletrustin developersincludestrustininternationalinstitutions,sincethese
playedanimportantroleinthefinancingoftheproject.Theright handvariablesarethoseassociatedwiththeanticipated project outcomes,surveyedintermsofrisksandbenefits.Thesearethe socio-economicimpacts,environmentalimpacts,andtheexpected distributionofbenefits.Afinalvariableispurelygeographical,and isthedistanceofeachsurveyrespondentfromthesite.
3.2. Surveydesignandpre-testing
Thequestionnairewasdesignedtoreflectourmodelofcom- munityacceptance.Onesectionwasdedicatedtothedependent variable,onetoeachmajordriverweintendedtotest,wherepro- ceduraland distributivejusticewereintegratedwithawareness andsocio-economicimpactsrespectively.Weaddedanadditional sectionincludingmiscellaneousquestionsforcontrolpurposesand consideringothertopicsofinterestsuchasattitudetowardsenergy importsaswellasastandardsectioncollectingdemographicand socio-economiccontextdata.
ThesurveywasdevelopedinEnglishwithallpartnersinvolved and translatedinto Arabicby ourpartners at theUniversity of Agadir.Wehadtolimitthelengthofthequestionnaireandwere thusnotabletoincludemultiple-itemsperquestionfortestingof validityandreliabilitybymeansofstatisticaltechniques.However, thesurveywaspre-testedattheUniversityofAgadirandcritically discussedby thelocal interviewers,who hadpreviously gained experience in conducting interviews in the Ouarzazate region throughaseparateongoingresearchproject[38].Theinterview- ersweremulti-lingualandbriefedhowtoadaptthequestionnaire toBerberandDarijaifnecessary.Afterafirstsetofinterviewswe reflectedeachquestionnaireitemastowhetherrespondentswere abletocopewithit.Furthermoreasetofquestionstotheinter- viewerabouthowwelltherespondentsseemedtounderstandthe questionnairegaveussomeinsightbothonvalidityandreliability.
Indeed,interviewersreporteddifficultiesofunderstandinginsev- eralcases,wethuscreatedrespectivecontrolgroupsinthedatain ordertotestwhetherthesecasesinfluencedtheanalysis.Asthis wasnotthecasewedecidednottodroptheseobservationsfrom thedataset.
3.3. Sampling
Weconductedfacetofaceinterviewswithasampleof232peo- ple,intheperiodbetweenthe8thandthe13thofMarch2014.The surveytargetedthepopulationage18andolder,livinginaradius of60kmoftheconstructionsiteoftheNoorICSPplant.Inorderto testfortheeffectofdistanceoncommunityacceptancewedivided theareaintothreeparts:peoplelivinglessthan20,40and60km fromthepowerplant.
Duetotheabsenceofanadequatesamplingframesuchaspopu- lation,phoneoraddressregisteraswellasforconstraintsoffunding andtime,we applieda multistageareasamplingstrategyusing acombinationofthemostrecentcensusdata(2004)andGoogle Earth,anddrewoursampleintwosteps.Whilealistofcommunes wasfreelyavailablefromadatabaseofadministrativeareas(www.
gadm.org),wewerenotableatthetimetofindacompletelistof settlementsortherespectiveshapefiles.Thereforewereliedon theGoogleEarthProsatelliteimagerytoidentifysettlementsin thesamplecommunes.
Inthefirstsamplingstageoneurbanandtworuralcommunes wererandomlyselectedfromthelistofcommuneswithin20km, 40kmand60kmoftheNoorICSPplant.Samplesweredrawnfor theruralandtheurbanhouseholdsindependentlytorepresentthe proportionofruralandurbanpopulationintheregion.Thiswas withina20kmradiusabout84%urbanand16%rural,withinthe 40kmradiusabout93%ruraland7%urban(oractually100%rural,
dependingonthedefinitionforurbansettlement),andwithina 60kmradiusabout88%ruraland12%urban.
Inthesecondsamplingstage,fortheruralcommunesselected inthefirststep,allsettlementswereidentifiedbasedonGoogle Earthsatelliteimages.Fromthislistwedrewarandomsample.
Inthesamplesettlementstheinterviewerswentfrombuildingto buildingtofindrespondents.Apartfromthelargecities,dwellings wereoftennotbuiltalongroadsorinanysystematiclayoutthat wouldfacilitateamoresystematic,randomizedapproach.
The urbancommunes selected wereoverlaid witha grid in Google Earth,the fieldswere numbered and a random sample wasdrawn.Againwerefrainedfromafurtherdigitizationandyet anothersamplingstageaswedidnothavethecapacityforanex- anteinventoryandanon-the-gostrategywasbeyondourresources aswell.Samplingspecifichouseholdswouldalsonothavebeenfea- sibleaswewereabletovisiteachhouseholdonlyonetimeandthe probabilitywashighthatwewouldnotfindtheresidentsathome.
4. Results 4.1. Sampleprofile
Weconducted151interviewsinurbanareasand81interviews inruralareas,reflectingtheproportionbetweenurbanandrural population.Theagedistributioninoursampledifferssomewhat fromtheagedistributionacrossthefieldworkareaasawhole, whichissimilartoMoroccobasedondatafromthe2004census:
menandwomenaged45andolderareslightlyunderrepresented.
Youngwomenundertheageof35weremorewillingtoparticipate inthesurveythanwomenover35,whichmaybelinkedtotheir educationandbetteraccesstoinformation(cf.Fig.2).Themedian ageoftherespondentswas33years(meanage34).Basedonthe availabledata(fiveyearagegroupsfrom2004census)weestimate thatthisreflectsthemedianageoftheregionquitewell.
Theaverageresponserateswere85%inruralareasand50%in urbanareas.Womenweremuchmorereluctanttotalktotheinter- viewerswhichledtomoremale(149)respondentsthanfemale (83).
Thelevelofeducation(Fig.3)ofoursamplewashigherthanthe averagelevelofeducationoftheregionandevenMorocco(Cen- sus2004),mostlikelydue tothelargenumberof interviewsin urbanareasandlargernumberofmalerespondentsaged25–45, wherelevelofeducationistraditionallyhigherthaninruralareas oramongwomen.Theemploymentstatusreflectsthevulnerable stateofthearea:17%ofourrespondentswereseekingemployment, whereasthelargestgroupwasself-employed(35%),i.e.,mostlikely workinginagricultureorsmallbusiness.Thefactthatonlyfour respondentsworkedforacivilsocietyassociation,reflectstheir slightinfluenceintheregion.
4.2. Keyvariablevalues
Informationontheself-reportedcommunityacceptanceofthe NoorIprojectwascollectedona5-pointscale1beingcompletely infavorand5completelyagainst.Reportedacceptance wasvery high,withmostofthepopulation(91%)beingeithercompletely infavororinfavoroftheproject(Fig.4).Qualitativeinterviews donebyGermanwatchandtheWuppertalInstitute[38]revealthat thiscanbeattributedtoMASEN’sapproachaddressingtheinterest andneedsoflocalcommunitiesintheneighborhoodoftheproject.
Byrecognizingtheimportanceoflocalcommunities insuccess- fulCSPdevelopment,ahighlevelofsupportwasachievedinthe ProvinceofOuarzazate,evenamonglocalcommunitieswhomay benegativelyaffectedorwhoarelivinginproximitytotheproject.
Fig.2.Populationpyramidofthesample.
Fig.3. Levelofeducationofsample.
Fig.4. AcceptanceoftheNoorICSPplant(dependentvariable).
Sincetheground-breakingceremonyfortheNoorIpowerplant, thegeneralawarenessoftheprojectcanbeconsideredalmostuni- versal,thisiswhytheperceivedlevelofinformationisimportant forprovidingadditionaldetailaboutquestionsofacceptance.Level ofinformationwasreportedona5-pointscale,1indicatingvery wellinformedand5 notat all informed.Compared tothebroad acceptanceoftheCSPproject,thelevelofinformationwaslow, withlessthan25%ofrespondentsfeelingwelloratleastsome- whatinformedand45%feelingbadlyornotatallinformed(see alsoFig.9).ThisisinlinewithfindingsbyGermanwatchandWup- pertalInstitute[38].Mostpeoplereceiveinformationaboutthe
CSPplantfromfamilyandfriends(∼47%,Fig.5).Thisreflectsthe importanceofsocialnetworksandnorms,whichissupportedinthe WorldValueSurveywhereMoroccansprioritizefamilyandreli- gionconsiderablyoverpolitics(WorldValueSurvey2010–2012).
Thesecondmostimportantsourceofinformationaremassmedia (∼40%),whereasallotherpotentialsourcesweremuch lessrel- evant,forexampleonly4.5%reportthattheyreceiveinformation frompublicauthoritiesand2%receivedinformationfromtheNoorI projectdevelopers.Correspondinglyrespondentswishedformore informationfromdevelopersaswellasfrommassmedia.Atthe sametimelocalauthoritiesandthethirdsectorseemtohavebeen
Fig.5. Comparisonofvariablesinformationsourceandinformationwish.Showinghowmassmediaandfamilyandfriendsarethemainsourcesofinformation(darkgrey), whereaspeoplewish(lightgrey)foradditionalinformationfromdevelopersaswellasNGOs.
muchlessrelevantinprovidinginformation,whichhighlightsthe keyroleofthenationalactorMASEN,whomwefoundthatrespon- dentsunderstoodtobe“developers”.
Perceivedfairnessorproceduraljustice,asincludedinourtheo- reticalmodel,hadtobeexcludedfromtheanalysisasthequestion sufferedfromaninterpretationmistake:thequestion“Haveyou beeninvolvedintheplanninganddevelopmentprocessoftheCSP plant?”wasinterpretedas“Wouldyouliketoworkatthepower plant?”Wewereabletoidentifythisonlythroughthefollow-up question“Howwouldyouliketobeinvolved?”,whichrespondents answeredbydescribingthekindofjobtheywouldlikeorwhydue totheirprofessiontheywerenotsuitedtoworkatthepowerplant.
Thisrevealedthatmorethanhalfofourrespondents(54%)would liketoworkattheNoorIpowerplant.Thismisinterpretationisan interestingfindinginitselfasitindicatesadifferentoverallattitude towardscommunityparticipationandinvolvement.Itreflectsthat participatoryprocessesarenotstandardprocedureandawareness ofsuchoptionsamongthegeneralpublicisprobablylow.
Informationontrustwascollectedusingafour-pointscalewith 1indicatingcompletetrustand4indicatingnotrust.Insightislim- itedhereaswewerenotclearedtoaskfortrustinpublicauthorities explicitly,althoughdevelopersaregenerallyunderstoodtobepub- lic contractor (MASEN).Trust in developers is comparably high, withalmost70%havingcomplete or sometrust (Fig.6), which supportsthequalitativefindingsbyGermanwatchandWupper- talInstitutethatthecommunitylevelworkofMASENwaslargely successful.However,35%ofrespondentsansweredthequestion onhowmuchtheytrustindeveloperswith“don’tknow”,which meansonly151answeredthequestion.Wefoundnoassociation fortrustindevelopersandacceptanceofNoorI.However,wewere abletoestablishastatisticallysignificantassociationbetweenthe dependentvariableandtrustininternationalinvestors(Pearson’s chi2=10.25,p=0.017).Thustrustininternationalinvestorswith 60% havingcomplete or sometrust (Fig. 6)is positivelylinked topublicacceptance,atthesametimeotherinternationalbodies wereawardedmuchlesstrust,with38%and32%respectively.We thereforeincludedtrustininvestorsastheonlyindependentvari-
ableintheregressionanalysis,whereaswedidnotincludetrustin developers.
We included overall expected positive and negative socio- economicimpactsonthecommunityandontheindividuallevel, aswellasspecificimpactssuchasjobavailability(=1.9),per- sonal income (=2.2), and electricity prices (=2.3). Answers wereobtainedonfive-pointscales,where1equaledverypositive impactsand5equaledverynegativeimpacts.
Respondents expected socio-economicimpacts to belargely positive moresoforthecommunity,80% expectveryor some- whatpositiveimpacts,thanforthemselves,66%expectaveryor somewhatpositiveimpact.Answershavetobetakenwithcare alsohere,where,giventheearlyconstructionstageofthepower planthopeswerehighformorejobs(particularlyfortheyouth)and lowerelectricityprices.Thiswasrevealedbyopen-endedques- tionsfor theprimarybenefitoftheproject.Theanswers tokey socio-economicimpactswerepositivelyassociatedwitheachother (Table1).Thereforeweincludedonlyimpactonselfintheregres- sionmodeltorepresentsocio-economicimpactsoverallandavoid multi-collinearityissuesinthemodel(Fig.7).Furthermore,thisis thevariableclosesttoourmodelassumptions.
92%ofrespondentsexpectedeitherpositiveornoimpactson theenvironment(Fig.8).Open-endedcontextquestionsaboutpri- marybenefitsandharmsrevealedthatthisisbecausesolarpower isconsideredtobefundamentallygoodcompared totraditional fuelsources.Onlywithrespecttowateravailabilityover40%of
Table1
Spearman’srhoandsignificancelevelsforsocio-economicimpactvariables.
Self Community Income Jobs Electricityprices
Self 1.0000
Community 0.33*** 1.0000
Income 0.26*** 0.32*** 1.0000 Jobs 0.32*** 0.20** 0.46*** 1.0000 Electricityprices 0.07 0.21*** 0.23*** 0.35*** 1.0000
**p<0.05.
***p<0.01.
Fig.6.Independentvariablestrustindevelopersn=151,andtrustininternationalinvestorsn=2010.ThelocalpopulationinterpretsthedeveloperstobetheMoroccan AgencyforRenewableEnergy(MASEN),althoughtheyareofficiallythecontractor,notthedeveloper.
Fig.7. Independentvariableperceivedimpactonself.
respondentsexpectednegativeimpacts.Wefindthisstilllowcon- sideringthewaterstressintheregion.Thisnegativetendencyfor water-specificimpactsseemshowevernotreflectedintheoverall positiveattitudetowardstheCSPplant.
Finally,almost80%ofrespondentsexpectsocio-economicben- efitstobedistributedunequallysothattherichwillbenefitmore thanthepoor,andpeoplesomewhereelseinMoroccoandoutside Moroccowillbenefitmorethanthelocalpopulation.
4.3. Driversofcommunityacceptance
Wedesignedthedependentvariabletobeordinal,however, duetoitsextremeskewednessand thesmallnumbersofnega- tiveobservationsintermsofattitude,wehadtorecodetheordinal variableintoabinaryone,wherethevalue1correspondstobeing completelyinfavor, andthevalue0includesallcategoriesthat rangefrombeinglessenthusiasticallyin favortobeingagainst.
Withthisbinarydependentvariablewewereabletousealogistic regression.Inourbaselinemodelweincludedsixvariablesbasedon ourtheoreticalmodelexcludingproceduraljustice.Inthesecond model,wereplacedthesinglevariableassociated withtheper- ceivedlevelofinformationwithanewsetofvariablesthatinclude theinteractionofgenderandinformation.
Runningthelogisticregression(Table2)withtheoriginalvari- ables as introduced above (excluding participatory justice) we receiveasignificantmodel(p<0.000),howeverwithlowexplana- torypower(McFadden’s R2 0.11).Only twoofourindependent
variables show a significantimpacton thelevel of community acceptance.Wefindthatboth,ahigherlevelofinformationand theenvironmentally-friendlyimageofthepowerplantareposi- tivelyassociatedwithcommunityacceptance.Thesecondmodel increasestheexplanatorypowerbyincludingarelevantinterac- tioneffect.Whileacceptanceispositivelyassociatedwiththelevel ofinformationoverall,wefindthatparticularlywomenaremore enthusiasticabouttheprojectthelesstheyareinformedabout it.Thesefindingsarerobusttoadaptationsofthemodel,suchas addingortakingoutvariablesandchangesinthetyperegression model.Duetothesmallsamplesizeweassumehoweverthatminor associationswillremainundetected,whiletheassociationsfound arelikelytobeunderstated.
Weexplainthefactthatsomeofthekeydriversofourtheoreti- calmodel,suchassocio-economicimpacts,anddistributivejustice arenotreflectedintheregression,withthemissinglinkbetween thegeneralenthusiasmabouttheprojectandactualknowledge, whichindicatesremaininguncertaintiesinpeople’sexpectations andthusvariablesdonotalign.Moreover,theindependentvari- ablesdistributivejusticeandimpactonwateravailabilityindicate amorecriticalstancevisavisNoorIincontrasttotheenthusiasm shownfortheprojectalsosuggeststhatthepositiveattitudeisnot onethatpeoplemadeupbasedonalloftheirownexpectations.
Abouthalfoftherespondentsfeltbadlyornotatallinformed.
Thisisreflectedintheinteractioneffectincludedinourmodel, wherethereisanassociationbetweenwomenwhoperceivethem- selvestobebadlyinformed andare verymuch in favor ofthe
Fig.8.Independentvariableperceivedimpactontheenvironment.
Table2
Logisticregressionofdriversofcommunityacceptance.
(1) (2)
Originalmodel asintended
Includinginteraction (levelofinformation andgender) Acceptance
Perceivedlevelof information
1.66**
(3.28)
Expectedimpactonself 0.78 0.86
(−1.09) (−0.66)
Expectedimpactonthe environment
2.20*** 2.39***
(3.68) (3.74)
Distributivejustice (equalvs.non-equal distribution)
0.90 0.81
(−0.28) (−0.49)
Trustininternational institutions
1.05 1.09
(0.28) (0.46)
DistancefromNoorI projectsite
1.25 1.17
(1.07) (0.69)
Gender(femalevs.male) 2.73
(1.14)
Badlyinformed#female 0.09*
(−2.35)
LRchi2 29.78 41.95
Prob>chi2 0.000 0.0001
PseudoR2(McFadden’s) 0.11 0.16
Observations 211 207
Exponentiatedcoefficients(oddsratios);zstatisticsinparentheses.
*p<0.05.
**p<0.01.
***p<0.001.
project.Indeed,thelevelofinformationvariesstronglyacrossgen- der,aKruskal–Wallistestyieldsaprobabilityof0.0012thatthat thisisinfacttrue.
Itseemsindeedthatanequalpercentageofmenandwomenfeel
“verywellinformed”(7%),“neitherwellnorbadly”(around20%) and“badlyinformed”(around40%),whilethebigdifferenceliesin womenfeelingmoreoften“notatallinformed”(27%)andrarely
“somewhatinformed”(10%,Fig.9).Othervariablesweresimilar.
Theimpactvariablessuchaselectricitypricesandwaterreflecta moreskepticalstanceinthepopulationthancouldaccountforthe enthusiasticacceptanceoftheCSPplant.
Beyond gender we controlled for demographic and socio- economicvariables,suchasage,education,andemploymentstatus.
Althoughbasicpatterns,suchasbetweenageandeducation,con- firmedthatourdatawasindeedreflectingarealisticpictureofthe population,thesevariablescouldnotaccountforanychangesin publicacceptance.
5. Discussion
We investigated theCSP flagship projectNoor I in Morocco andfoundthatthere ispracticallynoopposition totheproject.
Membersofoursurveysample,representativefortheregionof Ouarzazate,seemedtobeoverwhelminglyinfavoroftheproject:
91%beingcompletelyinfavororinfavor.Thishighlevelofcommu- nityacceptanceislargelydrivenbyexpectationsofpositiveorat leastnonegativeenvironmentalimpacts.Additionalopen-ended questionsrevealthatCSPisconsideredtobegood,asitusesthe renewable sourceofthesunand doesnotpollutetheenviron- mentsuchasfossilfuels.Atthesametimethatacceptanceishigh, however,thepopulationintheareafeltinsufficientlyinformed:
45%ofrespondentsbeingbadlyornotatallinformed.Womenin particularfeltthattheywerepoorlyinformed.Whileonemight expectthepoorlyinformedtobeskepticalofthesolarproject,we foundtheoppositetobethecase:thelessinformedpeoplewere, themorebroadlypositivetheyfelt.
Thisisaninterestingfinding,asitsuggeststhattoomuchinfor- mationearlyonintheprojectmightleadtostrongeropposition.
Takenoutofcontextthiscouldbeinterpretedbydevelopersthatit ishelpfultokeepinformationawayfromthepopulation.Theexist- ingliterature,largelybasedoncasestudiesinEuropeandNorth America,wouldsuggestthistobeariskystrategy,asitmightlead tounpleasantsurprisesandevenmoreheatedoppositioninthe future,ifnegativeimpactsweretooccur.Wewerenotabletofind outwhetherparticipationintheplanningprocesswasimportant tothepopulation,butratherfoundthatthisissomethingthatso farhasbeenbeyondconsiderationofthegeneralpublic,despite participatoryprocesses for keystakeholders. Atthesame time, respondentsvoiced aclearwish formoreinformation fromthe state-ownedrenewableenergyagencyMASEN.Thisindicatedthat peoplearenotcontentwiththeircurrentlevelofinformation.One canspeculate,basedonthisfinding,thatifinformationcontinuesto besparse,andanynegativeoutcomesoftheprojectareperceived, supportmightbegintofalter.
The literature suggests that public acceptance is often linkedtopositiveexpectationsforsocio-economicimprovement, particularlyinacasesuchasourwheretheareaaroundtheCSP plantiseconomicallydisadvantaged.Wedidnotobservethistobe thecase.However,allourdataonsocio-economicimpactsindi- catedpositiveexpectations,moreforthecommunity–75%expect very orsomewhatpositive socio-economicimpacts– thanper- sonally,particularlywhenitcomestojobsandelectricityprices.
Moreover,open-endedquestionsshowedhowjobcreationispeo- ple’sprimaryconcernfortheregion.
Ourdataleadustobelievethattheuniversallyhighacceptance mightpartlyresultfrompeopletellinguswhattheythoughtwe
Fig.9. Perceivedlevelofinformationbygender.
wantedtohear.Apartfromtheexpectationsforeconomicvalue creation,we find that despite thehighlevel of awareness and acceptancepeopledoexpecteconomicimpactstobedistributed unequally,andwhileoverallenvironmentalimpactsarenotper- ceived tobe negative, water availability as a separate issue is seenmuchmorecriticallyandpotentiallynegatively.Finally,the lowperceivedlowlevelofinformationpointstowardsadispar- itybetweentheoverwhelminglyhighsupportreportedandactual concernsthatmightremainorareunknown.Webelievethebias tobeoneofsocialdesirability,whichmayhavebeenintroducedby oneorallthreeofthefollowingreasons:(1)thefactthattheinter- viewswereconductedfacetoface; (2)thefact thattheproject developershadconductedlocalcampaigns;and(3)thefactthat KingMuhammadIVhadbeenpresentattheground-breakingcer- emony.
Despitethispotentialbias,which mightexplaintheextreme skewednessoftheresults, webelieve thatpublicacceptance is stilloverallpositive,standingsomewhatincontrasttostudiesthat havebeencarriedoutinEuropeorNorthAmerica.Thisisgener- allygoodnewsfortheimplementationoflarge-scalerenewablesin theregionassuchfactorsasaestheticdisruptionofthelandscape, opaqueplanningprocessesandNIMBYseemnottobeaproblem.
Yet,thoseresponsiblewillbewelladvisedtoconsiderthewishfor moreinformationandthecurrentlyhighexpectationsregarding jobcreationandelectricityprices,soastoavoiddisappointingthe localpopulationinthefuture.
Whilethisstudyprovidesanimportantbodyofinformation,itis subjectofseverallimitations.Apartfromlimitedfinancialandtime resources,translating thequestionnaire into Arabic,with guid- anceforadaptationtoBerberisonestepintheresearchprocess whichreducesprecisionofthequestionnaire,moredifficultyet isthecommunicationaboutcertainconceptsusedforourmodel ofacceptance,mostnotably,but notexclusively,ideasofpublic participation.
ThefactthatNoorIhasbeenintheearlyconstructionphase duringthefieldwork forthis studyis both anadvantage and a disadvantage.Publicawarenessandacceptanceisofcoursemost importantandeffectiveduringtheplanningandearlyconstruction phaseofaninfrastructureproject,whereasoncethepowerplantis running,itismuchmoredifficulttoinfluence.Yet,atthesametime manyoftheexpectedimpactsmaybeconfusedwithhighhopes, whereasactualimpactswillonlybecomevisibleonceNoorIhas beenfullyoperationalforawhile.
ThestudyathandhastobeanindividualcasestudyasNoorIis auniqueprojectintheMENAregion,shadowingallotherattempts
intermsofitssize.NoorIwillnotonlybeabenchmarkforfurther projectsintheregionbutithaspotentialstobeadriverforfur- thertheentireCSPindustrydevelopmentintheregion.Currently nosecondprojectofsimilarmeaningandimportanceexistsinthe region.
Atthesametimewebelievethatpublicacceptanceissueswhile beingparticulartocertainprojectsinsomeways,reflectunderly- ingbeliefandvaluesystemsthataresharedacrosscountries,and regionsastheyarerootedintheirsimilarcultural,religiousand politicaltraditions.Wethusbelievethatourmodelofpublicaccep- tancecanbefurtherdevelopedbasedontheinsightsfromthiscase, andthatitisindicativeforsimilarprojectsinotherMENAcountries.
Moreoveritmayserveasasteppingstoneforfurtheracceptance studiesintheregion.Thesewillbecomeincreasinglyrelevantas localoppositiontopowerinstallationsandresultingproblemsfor developershaveshowninothercasesintheregion[38].
Acknowledgments
TheworkdescribedinthispaperwassupportedbytheEuropean ResearchCouncilinframesofits“ERCStG2012–313553”grant.
Thepaperreflectstheauthors’viewsandnotthoseoftheEuro- peanResearchCouncil.Wewishtothankallourcolleagueswho providedprofessionaladviceandcollaboration.Weareespecially gratefultoGhizlanAtik,SouaadOuarzim,FatimaAhouli,Zakariya AitElBouhali, MohammedBoulaid, MohammedAitEl Hajand ChristofKögler.Thepaperbenefitedfromconstructivecriticismby thefacultyand participantsoftheOikosYoung ScholarsEnergy Academy.
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