Hydrogen Economy: A Sustainable Transportation Option and Its Role in Mitigating Climate Change
Daniel A. Krzyzanowski Energy Economics Group Paul Scherrer Institute, Villigen
http://www.psi.ch
NIDECO Colloquium
"Selected Aspects of Sustainable Development"
Zurich, 17 th June 2004
Hydrogen Economy: A Sustainable Transportation Option and Its Role in Mitigating Climate Change
Dissertation supervisors:
Prof. A. Wokaun and S. Kypreos
Research focus:
•Global Regionalized Transport Demand projections until the years 2050
•Market allocation of different technologies
•Evaluation of policies for reducing emissions resulting from transportation
Why to model transportation?
• Large emitter of CO 2 and other pollutants
• Increasing energy consumption
• Security of energy supply
291
66
841
46.8 450
211
1221
183
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Europe OECD Pacific OECD North America China CO2 emissions [million metric tonnes]
1970 1997
Source: IEA (2001)
“Sustainable mobility – the ability to meet the needs of society to move freely, gain access, communicate, trade and establish relationships without sacrificing other essential human or ecological values today or in the future”
World Business Council for Sustainable Development (2001)
Approach
• Assessment of alternative technology pathways to comply with sustainability goals in the transportation sector
• Global, multi-regional model
• Scenario-based approach, based on cost optimisation
• Examination of climate and other policies
Overview diagram of the model
Demand/supply Transportation
model Demand/supply
Transportation model Market demands
- Personal Vehicles - Light Duty Trucks - ...
Market demands
- Personal Vehicles - Light Duty Trucks - ...
Technology database
- Personal Vehicles - Light Duty Trucks - ...
Technology database
- Personal Vehicles - Light Duty Trucks - ...
Results
- Technology market share - Emissions balance - Fuel balance - Cost balance - ...
Results
- Technology market share - Emissions balance - Fuel balance - Cost balance - ...
Constraints
Constraints
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Market demands
• 2 main types of transportation (freight and passenger)
• Different market sub-segments
Passenger transportation Passenger
transportation Freight
transportation Freight transportation
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Market demands
Worldwide demand for freight transportation
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
1000 6000 11000 16000 21000 26000 31000 GDP/Capita
Deamnd for freight transportation [G T km]
Low growth (PAO,EEU,FSU)
Moderate growth (WUE,NAM)
High growth (LAM,MEA,PAS)
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Market demands
Share of modes in Latin America
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000
Demand [1e6 p-km]
S h ar e o f mo d es [ % ]
Buses
Personal cars Railroad
High Speed Transport
Technology database
Specification of transport technologies:
• Efficiencies
• Costs
• Emissions
• Fuels
• etc.
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Transportation model
• Stand-alone model
• Optimisation for allocation of transport technologies
• Combination of market demand and supply
• 11 world regions
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Transportation model
Cost curve with learning
Cumulative installed capacity Price of
1km travelled
by car
Costs which do not undergo learning Costs that
undergo learning
Cost curve
Floor cost
Technologies competing on the market:
• Non-learning
• Learning (ETL)
• Different sectors
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Illustrative results – market shares
Personal cars in North America
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand for transportation [G pkm]
Hybrid: methanol/FC (ETL) Hybrid: gasoline/FC (ETL) Electric (ETL)
Other
Hybrid: gasoline/LPG Hybrid: gasoline/electric Advanced diesel Diesel
Advanced gasoline Gasoline
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Illustrative results – market shares
Buses in North America
0 100 200 300 400
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Demand for transportation [G pkm]
ADV CNG CNG ADV diesel Diesel
Transportation model Transportation
model Market
demands Market demands
Technology database Technology database
Constrains
Results Results
Illustrative results – policy
measures (example of CO 2 tax)
Changes in transportation prices for personal cars
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
C o st s [ U S $ 95 / 1000 p -km ]
Gasoline Adv anc ed gasoline
Diesel passenger
Adv anc ed diesel
Hy br id:
gasoline-
Hy br id:
gasoline-
Elec t r ic ( ETL)
Hy br id:
gasoline-
Hy br id:
met hanol-
H2 FC ( non- ETL)
