Monday, 17 December 12

(1)

Predicting the unpredictable -

a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios

Thomas Brey, AWI

(2)

Predicting the unpredictable -

a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios

Thomas Brey, AWI

Macroecology = study of relationships between organisms and their environment at large spatial scales to characterise and explain statistical patterns of abundance, distribution and diversity (Brown 1989)

(3)

Predicting the unpredictable -

a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios

Thomas Brey, AWI

... a preview on years to come

(4)

Predicting the unpredictable -

a macroecological approach towards future ecosystem scenarios

Thomas Brey, AWI

... with focus on the

benthic compartment

... a preview on years to come

(5)

What are we expected to deliver ?

ECOSYSTEM FUNCTIONING Goods & Services

Sustainable Use Management

Genetic Heritage

Recreation Marine Drugs Fisheries

(6)

What are we expected to deliver ?

Sustainable Use Management Stakeholders

Science

? !

Analysis Model Prediction

(7)

What are we expected to deliver ?

Sustainable Use Management Stakeholders

Science

? !

Analysis Model Prediction

Mean Sea Level pH Value

HOT

Sea Ice Cover

NASA

Coastal Erosion

globalwarmingart.com

(8)

Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult ?

(9)

Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult ?

• Non-deterministic ecological processes

Benincá et al. 2008 Nature 451

Predictability

(10)

Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult ?

• The players: genetic, taxonomic, functional diversity ?

(11)

Secondary Extinction Models

Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult ?

• The rules: “1st Principles” in ecophysiology & ecology ?

(12)

Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult ?

• Spatial heterogenity of state & change

Arctica islandica

in the southern North Sea

(13)

Why is ecosystem modeling so difficult ?

Arctica islandica

in the southern North Sea

Spatially explicit approach:

Who is doing what, where and why ?

(14)

Is the whole > the sum of its parts ?

Parameters

Geo-Referenced Ecological Niche Models Species

Performance Models

Species

Interaction Models Dynamic

Habitat Models

(15)

Is the whole > the sum of its parts ?

Implicit chapter headings...

(16)

Is the whole > the sum of its parts ?

Implicit chapter headings...

• Geostatistics + niche models = game changer

(17)

Is the whole > the sum of its parts ?

Implicit chapter headings...

• Geostatistics + niche models = game changer

• Measuring performance of benthic biota

(18)

Is the whole > the sum of its parts ?

Implicit chapter headings...

• Geostatistics + niche models = game changer

• Measuring performance of benthic biota

• Linking the biosphere to its drivers

(19)

Is the whole > the sum of its parts ?

Implicit chapter headings...

• Geostatistics + niche models = game changer

• Measuring performance of benthic biota

• Linking the biosphere to its drivers

• A holistic view from the service side

(20)

Is the whole > the sum of its parts ?

Implicit chapter headings...

• Geostatistics + niche models = game changer

• Measuring performance of benthic biota

• Linking the biosphere to its drivers

• A holistic view from the service side

• Our regional focus

(21)

Geostatistics - Spatial pattern analysis

Spatial patterns in species numbers

(22)

Geostatistics - Spatial pattern analysis

Spatial patterns in species numbers

(23)

Depth & sediment type for each (grid) cell of the raster map

Probability of species occurence in the depth & sediment continua Habitat information Species information

Benthic habitat modeling

(24)

Depth & sediment type for each (grid) cell of the raster map

Probability of species occurence in the depth & sediment continua Habitat information Species information

&

Species preferences

Benthic habitat modeling

(25)

Dynamic habitat models

Spatial probability model of species occurence

Probability of species occurence in raster cell

(26)

Dynamic habitat models

Pleuronectes platessa

(27)

Dynamic habitat models

Pleuronectes platessa

-> Validation ! Suitable habitat <-> Realized niche

(28)

Ecophysiological niche modeling

Thermal tolerance model

Pörtner & Peck 2010

(29)

Ecophysiological niche modeling

Species thermal niche model

(30)

Ecophysiological niche modeling

Species thermal niche model

-> Validation ! Functional niche <-> Realized niche

(31)

Bioturbation Bioirrigation

Performance modeling -> Services

Consumption

Somatic Production Gonad Production

Respiration Primary Production O2 CO2

Food Web Benthic Animal / Poplation

(32)

Performance modeling -> Services

Consumption

We need performance models !

(33)

Performance modeling -> Services

Consumption

(34)

Performance modeling -> Services

Consumption

Food Web

Respiration model

Benthic Animal / Poplation

(35)

Performance modeling -> Services

Consumption

Production model

(36)

Performance modeling -> Services

Consumption

Bioturbation model

(37)

Species interaction modeling

(38)

Species interaction modeling

Food web model

Jacob et al. 2006

(39)

Species interaction modeling

Food web model

Jacob et al. 2006

Adv. Ecological Res. 45; 2011

(40)

Environmental drivers & system response

(41)

Environmental drivers & system response

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers

Models

(42)

Environmental drivers & system response

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers Models

Finite Element Ocean Model (FEOM)

Finite Element Sea Ice Ocean Model (FESOM)

(43)

Environmental drivers & system response

Theoretical Long-Term Ecolog. Data Paleo-Record

& Bioarchives

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers Models

(44)

Environmental drivers & system response

& Bioarchives

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers Models

Macrobenthic diversity 1969-2000

(Schröder 2005)

(45)

Environmental drivers & system response

& Bioarchives

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers Models

(Schröder 2005)

Arctica islandica growth variability 1770-2005

(Brey & Schöne unpubl)

(46)

Environmental drivers & system response

& Bioarchives

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers Models

(Schröder 2005)

A Post-Invasion Weddell Sea Food Web

(47)

Environmental drivers & system response

& Bioarchives

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers Models

(Schröder 2005)

A Post-Invasion Weddell Sea Food Web

(48)

Parameters

Geo-Referenced Ecological Niche Models

Macroecological-/physiological Scenario Generator

& Bioarchives

Species

Performance Models

Species

Habitat Models

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers

Models

(49)

Parameters

Geo-Referenced Ecological Niche Models

Macroecological-/physiological Scenario Generator

& Bioarchives

Species

Performance Models

Species

Habitat Models

Land- Ocean- Atmosphere

Drivers Models

• Actual system state

• Cause & effect relationships

• Future scenarios

• Hypothesis testing

(50)

The sediment-water interface challenge

Ecosystem Goods & Services

• Carbon Metabolization -> Higher Trophic Levels

• Nutrient Remineralization -> Primary Production

• Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances

(51)

The sediment-water interface challenge

(c) Aquafact

(52)

The sediment-water interface challenge

(c) Aquafact

• Processing & Neutralization of Anthropogenic Substances Sediment Oxygen Profile

no infauna infauna

cm cm

D. Sevilgen unpubl.

(53)

The sediment-water interface challenge

(c) Aquafact

Benthic macrofauna impact

on biogeochemical processes

?

Sediment Oxygen Profile

no infauna infauna

cm cm

D. Sevilgen unpubl.

(54)

The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical

Reactor

Macrobenthic Community

(55)

The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical

Reactor

(56)

The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical

Reactor

Biogeochemical Cycling

POM & DOM Dynamics System Metabolism

POM Turnover & Metabolism Sediment Bioirrigation

Bioturbation

(57)

The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical

Reactor

Bioturbation

Macrobenthic Community Windfarms

Anthropogenic Impact

Fisheries

(58)

The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical

Reactor

Bioturbation

Fisheries CO2

Corg

CO2 + H2O

<=> H⁺ + HCO3-

<=> 2 H⁺ + CO32-

Primary Production

CaCO3

Biogenic Sediments Bio-

mineralization

Organic Matter

Production

Food Web Carbonate

System

Respiration

Solution

(59)

The Shelf Sea Benthic Biogeochemical

Reactor

Bioturbation

Fisheries CO2

Corg

CO2 + H2O

<=> H⁺ + HCO3-

<=> 2 H⁺ + CO32-

Primary Production

CaCO3

Biogenic Sediments Bio-

mineralization

Organic Matter

Production

Food Web Carbonate

System

Respiration

Solution

Regional / Global Biogeochemical Models

(60)

Regions of interest

(61)

Regions of interest

North Sea

(62)

Regions of interest

North Sea Arctic Ocean

(63)

Regions of interest

Weddell Sea

(64)

Regions of interest

Weddell Sea

(65)

Regions of interest

Weddell Sea

(66)

Regions of interest

Weddell Sea

(67)

Antarctic Weddell Sea

Weddell Sea

(68)

Antarctic Weddell Sea

Weddell Sea

(69)

Antarctic Weddell Sea

Weddell Sea

(70)

Antarctic Weddell Sea

Weddell Sea

MPA Working Group

(71)

Antarctic Weddell Sea

Weddell Sea

MPA Working Group

(72)

Arctic Ocean

Arctic Ocean

(73)

Arctic Ocean

Arctic Ocean Vision:

pan-Arctic approach:

1st step: geo-referenced benthic data bank

(74)

Arctic Ocean

(75)

Arctic Ocean

Barents Sea macrobenthic production Cooperation IMR Tromsø - AWI

(76)

North Sea

North Sea

(77)

North Sea

North Sea

Trawling frequency

(78)

North Sea

North Sea

Offshore wind farms

(79)

North Sea

North Sea

Offshore wind farms Infaunal biomass

(80)

North Sea

North Sea

Offshore wind farms Infaunal biomass

(81)

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