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Doing More with Less

Improving the Environment through Green Engineering

Arnulf Grubler

RP-06-005

April 2006

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis • Schlossplatz 1 • A-2361 Laxenburg • Austria Tel: (+43 2236) 807 • Fax: (+43 2236) 71313 • E-mail: publications@iiasa.ac.at • Web: www.iiasa.ac.at

Doing More with Less

Improving the Environment through Green Engineering

Arnulf Grubler

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

RP-06-005 April 2006

Reprinted from Environment 48(2), pp. 22–37, March 2006.

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IIASA Reprints make research conducted at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis more accessible to a wider audience. They reprint independently reviewed articles that have been previously published in journals. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.

Reprinted with permission from Environment 48(2), pp. 22–37, March 2006.

Copyright © Heldref Publications, March 2006.

http://www.heldref.org/env.php

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the copyright holder.

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LATION 4HE EFFECTS HAVE BEEN DRAMATIC ANDWIDESPREAD0RODUCTIVITYINCREASESIN

%UROPE AND .ORTH !MERICA ALLOWED FOR THEFIRSTTIMESINCETHE)NDUSTRIAL2EVOLU TION AGRICULTURAL LANDS TO BE RECONVERTED TO FORESTS SEE THE NEGATIVE VALUES OF LANDCONVERSIONS PER ADDITIONAL POPULA TION IN &IGURE WHILE MAINTAINING TRE MENDOUS INCREASES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT ANDSURPLUSES

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s 0ARADOX,IMITSTOGROWTH.OTTHE MOSTTHATWEAREABLETOTAKEAWAYFROM NATURERATHERTHEMOSTTHATWEAREABLE TORETURNTOITASWASTES/NEOFTHEMAIN MOTIVATIONSFORRESOURCECONSERVATIONHAS ALWAYSBEENTHEFEAROFRUNNINGOUTFACING

ABSOLUTERESOURCESHORTAGESFORFARMLAND MINERALS OR ENERGY 7ITH A FINITE %ARTH SUCH CONCERNS ARE CERTAINLY WARRANTED IN THE VERY LONG TERM (OWEVER ANALYSTS ARE LESS CERTAIN WHAT hLONG TERMv MEANS IN TERMS OF RESOURCE AVAILABILITY A FEW DECADESASPESSIMISTSHAVEBEENARGUING REPEATEDLY ORPERHAPSATIMESCALEOFCEN TURIESEVENMILLENNIA4HISDEBATEABOUT RESOURCE AVAILABILITY FLUCTUATING BETWEEN THE EXTREMES OF PENURY OR ABUNDANCE HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED IN THE ENERGY FIELD WHICH IS WHY THE LIMITS TO GROWTH PARADOX IS ILLUSTRATED HERE USING

FOSSIL FUEL RESOURCES AS AN EXAMPLE 4HE TRADITIONAL hSUPPLYv CONCERNS NEED TO BE COMPLEMENTED WITH AN EVEN STRONGER CONCERN ON THE hDISPOSITIONv SIDE OF THE RESOURCEAVAILABILITYEQUATION

7HEN DISCUSSING ENERGY RESOURCE AVAILABILITY IT IS USEFUL TO RECOGNIZE THAT AVAILABLE RESOURCES NEED TO BE DEFINED ALONGAMULTIDIMENSIONALSPACECOMPRIS ING GEOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE ECONOMICS ANDTECHNOLOGY)NOTHERWORDSWHATCON STITUTESAhRESOURCEvDEPENDSONWHETHER PARTICULAR DEPOSITS HAVE BEEN FOUND AND WHETHER THE DEPOSITS CAN BE EXTRACTED ECONOMICALLY AT PREVAILING PRICES AS WELLASTECHNOLOGICALLYWITHCURRENTTECH NOLOGY "ECAUSE ALL THREE DIMENSIONS THATDEFINERESOURCEAVAILABILITYAREINHER ENTLY DYNAMIC IT IS NECESSARY TO REFRAIN FROM SIMPLE NUMBERS FOCUSING INSTEAD ON A CONTINUUM OF QUANTITIES WITH VARY ING DEGREES OF GEOLOGICAL ASSURANCE AND

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PRODUCTION VOLUMES "UT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THESE ADDITIONS TO OUR RESERVE BASE REMAIN UNCERTAIN &INALLY THERE IS A LAST CATEGORY REFERRED TO AS hOCCUR RENCESv4YPICALLYTHESEAREEITHEREXOTIC DEPOSITS LIKE METHANE HYDRATES OR CON VENTIONAL RESOURCES THAT APPEAR BEYOND REACH WITHIN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE LIKE THE COAL SEAMS BURIED UNDER THE .ORTH 3EA )TISINTERESTINGTONOTEHERETHATCON TRARYTOCONVENTIONALWISDOMTHELARGEST OCCURRENCEOFHYDROCARBONSINTHE%ARTHS CRUSTISNOTINTHEFORMOFCOALBUTINTHE FORM OF METHANE HYDRATES MOLECULES OF NATURAL GAS METHANE TRAPPED IN THE LAT TICEOFFROZENWATERMOLECULES(YDRATES AREESTIMATEDTOEXISTINENORMOUSQUANTI TIESINPERMAFROSTAREASANDINTHEOCEAN FLOOROFCONTINENTALSHELVES

4ABLE ON PAGE SUMMARIZES CUR RENT ESTIMATES OF RESERVES RESOURCES AND OCCURRENCESFORCOALOILANDNATURALGAS )NSTEAD OF THE TRADITIONAL ENERGY UNITS CARBON IS THE MEASUREMENT METRIC SO ALL QUANTITIES ARE EXPRESSED IN GIGATONS OF CARBON 'T# BILLION TONS OF ELEMEN TAL CARBON (ISTORICALLY EXTRACTION AND BURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS HAVE AMOUNTED TO APPROXIMATELY 'T# OVER THE PERIOD n4HISFIGURECOMPARESWITHAN ADDITIONAL 'T# RELEASED BY LANDUSE CHANGES DEFORESTATION THAT IS A TOTAL RELEASE OF ABOUT 'T# SINCE THE ONSET OFTHE)NDUSTRIAL2EVOLUTION!CCORDINGTO THE )NTERGOVERNMENTAL 0ANEL ON #LIMATE

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RELEASEOFSUCHQUANTITIESVIATHEBURNING OF FOSSIL FUELS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED AMPLIFIEDHUMANINFLUENCEONTHECLIMATE SYSTEM#ONSIDERINGPOTENTIALRELEASESBY TAPPING EVEN A FRACTION OF THE ESTIMATED AVAILABLE RESOURCES OR EVEN OCCURRENCES THATCOMBINEDCONTAINUPTO'T#

ILLUSTRATES THE PARADOX MENTIONED ABOVE 7ELL BEFORE PHYSICAL RESOURCE LIMITATIONS EVENTUALLY HALT THE CONTINUED EXPANSION OFFOSSILFUELUSELIMITSOFTHEASSIMILATIVE CAPACITYOFTHEBIOSPHEREWILLBEREACHED 4HEULTIMATELIMITSTOGROWTHARETHEREFORE LESSWHATHUMANSCANEXTRACTFROMNATURE ASRESOURCESBUTRATHERHOWMUCHTHEYCAN RETURNTOITASWASTES

s 0ARADOX#ONSUMERSCANBEATGREEN ENGINEERS 4HE LAST PARADOX ADDRESSED HERE DEFINES THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE GREENENGINEERANDTHATOFTHESOMETIMES NOTSOGREEN CONSUMER)TISATRUISMTHAT DESPITE THE NOMENCLATURE ALL INDUSTRIAL IZED COUNTRIES ARE PREDOMINANTLY SERVICE ECONOMIES 4HEREFORE FROM AN ENVIRON MENTAL PERSPECTIVE IT IS THE CONSUMER ENDˆHOWPRODUCTSAREUSEDANDSERVICES AREDELIVEREDASOPPOSEDTOTHETRADITIONAL ENGINEERINGFOCUSONHOWTHEYAREMANU FACTURED ˆTHATMATTERSINCREASINGLYMORE

&OR ENGINEERS THIS MEANS THAT INCREASING ATTENTION NEEDS TO BE PAID TO POTENTIAL NEW FIELDS OF TECHNOLOGY APPLICATION AND TO CONSUMER BEHAVIORS THAT CAN EITHER PROMOTE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPROVEMENTS OR EXACERBATE PROBLEMS !N ILLUMINATING EXAMPLE OF THIS IS PROVIDED BY TRENDS IN 53 AUTOMOBILES AND THEIR CARBON EMIS SIONS SINCE FOLLOWING A DECOMPO SITIONAL )0!4 ANALYSIS SEE &IGURE ON PAGE

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3INCETHEFUELECONOMYGASOLINE USE PER MILE DRIVEN OF 53 AUTOMOBILES HAS IMPROVED BY MORE THAN PERCENT

!ND YET DESPITE THESE MORE FUELEFFICIENT VEHICLESAFORMIDABLEENGINEERINGACHIEVE MENT GASOLINEUSEANDEMISSIONSHAVENOT FALLEN)NSTEADTHEYHAVEINCREASEDBYMORE THAN PERCENT 7HY 7HILE VEHICLES HAVE BECOME MORE EFFICIENT THERE ARE MORE AUTOMOBILES IN GENERAL AND MORE LARGE VEHICLES LIKE SPORTS UTILITY VEHICLES 356S AND PICKUP TRUCKS -OST IMPOR TANTLYAUTOMOBILEUSEHASCHANGED0EOPLE

DRIVEMOREMILESLONGERDISTANCES ANDON AVERAGEHAVEFEWERPASSENGERSPERVEHICLE DECREASINGLOADFACTORS 4HEENVIRONMEN TALIMPLICATIONSOFCARUSAGEHAVEBECOME PREDOMINANTOVERTHEENVIRONMENTALCHAR ACTERISTICSOFCARDESIGNINDICATINGANEW CHALLENGEFORGREENENGINEERING

4HE EXAMPLE OF AUTOMOBILE EMISSIONS ALSO ILLUSTRATES THIS PARADOX %MISSIONS STANDARDSHAVEBEENTIGHTENEDSUBSTANTIAL LYOVERTHEPASTFEWDECADES&ORINSTANCE HYDROCARBON AND CARBON MONOXIDE #/

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REMAINING THE SAME AUTOMOTIVE EMIS SIONS SHOULD HAVE FALLEN IN PROPORTION TO THE MANDATORY EMISSIONS STANDARDS FOR CARS(OWEVERTHISHASNOTBEENTHECASE AS THE 53 %NVIRONMENTAL 0ROTECTION

!GENCY%0! EMISSIONSSTATISTICSCLEARLY INDICATE 4HE TIGHTENING OF EMISSIONS STANDARDSFORHYDROCARBONSAND#/BY PERCENT COMPARES WITH EMISSIONS REDUC TIONSOFnPERCENTFOR#/ANDVOLATILE ORGANICCOMPOUNDS6/#S RESPECTIVELY 4HEREHASBEENNOEMISSIONSREDUCTIONFOR ./XCOMPAREDTODESPITETIGHTENING EMISSIONSSTANDARDSTOPERCENTOF LEVELS4HECASEOF./XISAREMINDERTHAT ITISALONGANDWINDINGROADBETWEENTHE INTRODUCTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL STANDARDS AND POLLUTION CONTROL EQUIPMENT CATA LYTICCONVERTERSINTHISCASE ANDEFFECTIVE

EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS #OUNTERBALANCING FACTORS INCLUDE THE CHANGES IN VEHICLE USAGE MENTIONED ABOVE LEADING TO CON TINUED DEMAND GROWTH MORE CARS AND MORE DRIVING PER PASSENGER TRANSPORTED AND CHANGES IN VEHICLE FLEET COMPOSITION MORELIGHTTRUCKSAND356S "UTABOVE ALL THE MAJOR OFFSETTING FACTORS ARE THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ACTUAL EMISSIONS IN EVERYDAYOPERATIONSANDEMISSIONSUNDER TESTCONDITIONSASDEMANDEDINREGULATORY STANDARDS&ORINSTANCEITISESTIMATEDTHAT THERE IS A FACTOR DIFFERENCE OF ./X HYDROCARBONS AND #/ RESPECTIVELY BETWEENTHEACTUALAVERAGEEMISSIONSOVER A VEHICLES LIFETIME AND THOSE POSTULATED BY THE TAILPIPE AUTOMOBILE EMIS SIONSSTANDARDINTHE5NITED3TATESDUETO SHORTDISTANCEDRIVINGORBADMAINTENANCE

ALL LEADING TO MALFUNCTIONING OF CATALYTIC CONVERTERS )NCOMBINATIONWITHCONTIN UEDDEMANDGROWTHTHESEFACTORSEXPLAIN THE APPARENT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ACTUAL EMISSIONSLEVELSANDTHOSEEXPECTEDBASED ONTHEDIFFUSIONOFVEHICLESWITHNEWAND IMPROVEDENVIRONMENTALSTANDARDS

4HESERESULTSCAUTIONAGAINSTOVEROPTI MISMREGARDINGTHEPACEANDEFFECTIVENESS OFPOLLUTIONREDUCTIONMEASURESBASEDON hADDONv DEVICES WHERE THEIR ENVIRON MENTALPERFORMANCEISLARGELYDETERMINED BYCONSUMERUSAGEANDMAINTENANCEAND WHERESERVICEDEMANDSCONTINUETOGROW )TALSOSUGGESTSTHATMANDATORYEMISSIONS STANDARDS HAVE TO LEAVE LARGE MARGINS FOR THESE COUNTERBALANCING EFFECTS &ROM THAT PERSPECTIVE THE BEST STANDARD IS ONE OF ZERO EMISSIONS AND INDEED WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF LEADFREE GASOLINE LEAD EMISSIONS FROM AUTOMOBILES HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO PRACTICALLY ZERO IN THE 5NITED 3TATES (OWEVER THERE IS YET ANOTHER INTERPRETATION )NSTEAD OF CONFIRMING THE CLICH£THATTHEPROBLEMINEMISSIONSCON TROLISNOTTECHNICALBUTRATHERINSTITUTIONAL OR BEHAVIORAL THE DIVERGENCE BETWEEN REGULATORYSTANDARDSANDACTUALEMISSIONS CANALSOBESEENASRESULTINGFROMALACK OFACCURATEEMISSIONSMEASUREMENTINSTRU MENTATION4HISCONSEQUENTLYLEAVESREGU LATORS AND CAR MANUFACTURERS GROPING IN THE DARKˆWITHOUT ADEQUATE INFORMATION ON WHICH TO BASE STANDARDS AND RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT 2$ IN EMISSIONS CONTROLTECHNOLOGIES3OINREPHRASINGTHE ABOVEPARADOXONECANCONCLUDETHATCON SUMERS CAN EASILY BEAT GREEN ENGINEERS PARTICULARLY IF THE ENGINEERS START FROM A POSITION OF POORLY ENGINEERED ENVIRON MENTALSTANDARDSANDPROGRESSMONITORS

#ONCLUSIONS

! SET OF SIX PARADOXES PROVIDES A FRAMEWORK FOR THE CHALLENGES THAT GREEN ENGINEERS FACE IN TODAYS INDUSTRIAL

&IGURE4RENDSINCARBONEMLSSIONSFROM 53AUTOMOBILESANDRELATEDFACTORS

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METABOLISM 6ASTLY IMPROVED PRODUCTIV ITY LEADING TO NEW BETTER AND CHEAPER PRODUCTS AND SERVICES IS AT THE HEART OF THE TREMENDOUS OUTPUT GROWTH THAT HAS LED TO CURRENT CONCERNS OF ENVIRON MENTALSUSTAINABILITY)MPROVEDMATERIALS ANDINCREASEDENVIRONMENTALPRODUCTIVITY HAVE SUBSTANTIALLY LESSENED THE ENVIRON MENTAL IMPACTS OF OUTPUT GROWTH EVEN IF TO DATE OUTPUT GROWTH HAS GENERALLY OUTSTRIPPED IMPROVEMENTS "UT THE FACT THATTHESEIMPROVEMENTSHAVETAKENPLACE FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS AND REGULATIONGIVESREASONSFORCAUTIOUSOPTI MISM'IVENAPPROPRIATEINCENTIVESFROM WITHIN THE ENGINEERING COMMUNITY AND FROM SOCIETY AT LARGE HISTORICAL MATERIAL ANDENVIRONMENTALPRODUCTIVITYIMPROVE

MENTSCOULDBESUBSTANTIALLYACCELERATED ULTIMATELY OUTPACING OUTPUT GROWTH AND IN TURN LEADING TO LESS RESOURCE USE AND ENVIRONMENTALSTRESS

4HE SIX GREEN ENGINEERING PARADOXES EXPLORED HERE HIGHLIGHT THE IMPORTANCE OF LARGE SYSTEM BOUNDARIES AND THE USE OFMULTIPLECRITERIAFORDESIGNANDIMPLE MENTATIONOFGREENENGINEERINGSOLUTIONS

%MBRACING A LARGER SYSTEMS VIEW NOT ONLYSHOULDHELPGREENENGINEERSENHANCE TRADITIONAL hGOODv ENGINEERING PRACTICE BUT ALSO HELP IN ADDRESSING INEVITABLE TRADEOFFS INHERENT IN BALANCING ENVIRON MENTALANDECONOMICPERFORMANCECRITERIA AS WELL AS POSSIBLE TRADEOFFS BETWEEN VARIOUSENVIRONMENTALOBJECTIVESTHATMAY

NOTNECESSARILYALWAYSMOVEINCONSISTENT DIRECTIONS!LARGERSYSTEMSPERSPECTIVEIS ALSO NEEDED IN TERMS OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL FOCUSONEXISTINGMARKETSPREDOMINANTLY ININDUSTRIALIZEDCOUNTRIES TOWARDAMORE GLOBALVIEWINCLUDINGTRANSFERANDDIFFU SIONOFBESTPRACTICEENGINEERINGANDENGI NEERING SOLUTIONS TO DEVELOPING NATIONS

&ROM THESE PERSPECTIVES GREEN ENGINEER ING IS INDEED A NEW HOLISTIC DISCIPLINE WITH ITS CONCERNS ON REDESIGNING ENTIRE SYSTEMSOFPRODUCTIONANDUSEEMBRACING PROCESS AND PRODUCT DESIGN CHANGES AS WELLASEMBRACINGAGLOBALPERSPECTIVE

0ERHAPSTHEMOSTIMPORTANTLESSONFROM LARGESYSTEMSBOUNDARIESISFORENGINEERS TORECOGNIZETHEIMPORTANCEOFCONSUMER BEHAVIORANDTHEENDOFLIFEOFENGINEER INGPRODUCTSANDSOLUTIONS"UTHERETHE

GREENENGINEERWHOHASLEARNEDSUCCESS FULLY FROM THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES FACES A NEW CHALLENGE TO LEARN FROM AND INTERACT WITH THE SOCIAL SCI ENCES4HETECHNOLOGICALOPTIMISMIFNOT DETERMINISM INHERENTINENGINEERSNEEDS TOBETEMPEREDWITHARECOGNITIONOFTHE COMPLEXITIES OF SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORKS IN WHICH ALL ENGINEERING IS DEEPLYEMBEDDED4HEYFRAMETHECONDI TIONSUNDERWHICHGREENENGINEERINGCAN BLOSSOMINTHEFUTUREASWELLASTHETERMS UNDER WHICH PROPOSED hGREENv SOLUTIONS AREADOPTEDCOUNTERCARICATUREDORSOME TIMESEVENREJECTEDBYSOCIETYATLARGE

4HIS LARGER SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE ALSO HOLDS CLUES FOR THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION

OF THE PARADOXES OUTLINED IN THIS ESSAY 'REEN ENGINEERING hFIXESv ARE UNLIKELY TO MOVE SYSTEMS OF PRODUCTION AND USE BEYOND GOOD PRACTICE DESPITE THE SUB STANTIALMARGINSOFIMPROVEMENTTHATTHE GLOBAL APPLICATION OF BEST ENGINEERING PRACTICES MAY ENTAIL 4O MINIMIZE ENVI RONMENTAL IMPACTS BY SIGNIFICANT ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE REQUIRES THE BLENDING OF GOODENGINEERINGWITHGOODECONOMICSAS WELL AS CHANGING CONSUMER PREFERENCES )F IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL PRODUCTIVITY ENTAILS INCREASED COSTS THESE COSTS NEED TOBEEITHERBALANCEDBYAPPROPRIATEMAR KET INCENTIVES EITHER THROUGH STICKS FOR EXAMPLEADDINGENVIRONMENTALEXTERNALI TIES TO THE COST CALCULUS OR THROUGH CAR ROTS FOR EXAMPLE CHANGING CONSUMER PREFERENCES THAT GIVE GREEN PRODUCTS A

COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC EDGE ˆOR PREFER ABLYBOTHSTICKSANDCARROTS

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