Modeling Regional Agricultural Systems: Proceedings of the International Seminar on "Results of the Development of Mathematical Models for Regional Systems of Farm Management"

(1)

NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR

MODELING

REIONAL AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Proceedings of the International Seminar on

"Results of the Development of Mathematical Models for Regional Systems of Farm Management"

April 1986 CP-86-13

This seminar, which was held a t Stavropol on August 9-12, 1982, was organized jointly by:

The USSR Academy of Sciences

The V.I. Lenin All-Union Academy of Agricultural Sciences The International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis The Stavropol Research Institute of Agriculture

C o l l a b o r a t i v e P a p e r s r e p o r t work which h a s not been performed solely

at

t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and which h a s r e c e i v e d only limited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o not necessarily r e p r e s e n t those of 'the Institute, i t s National Member Organizations, o r o t h e r organizations supporting t h e work.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE

FOR

APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria

(2)

(3)

Foreword

A p a r t of t h e r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t i e s of t h e Food a n d Agriculture P r o g r a m

at

IIA- SA focused o n t h e investigations of a l t e r n a t i v e p a t h s of technological t r a n s f o r m a - tion in a g r i c u l t u r e in t h e c o n t e x t of r e s o u r c e limitations a n d long-term environmental consequences. The p u r p o s e was to develop g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h a n d methodology t h r o u g h work

at

IIASA a n d in s e v e r a l case s t u d i e s

at

t h e r e g i o n a l l e v e l in dif- f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s with t h e h e l p of c o l l a b o r a t i n g institutions. The case s t u d i e s help n o t only t o validate t h e g e n e r a l methodology but also t o develop a n a n a l y t i c a l tool f o r detailed investigations f o r a p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n which could t h e n b e a p p l i e d to o t h e r r e g i o n s . Moreover, t h e s e case s t u d i e s a d d r e s s e d c e r t a i n s p e c i f i c questions which p e r m i t a c o m p a r a t i v e analysis.

The case study of t h e S t a v r o p o l r e g i o n of t h e USSR was a major study in t h i s e f f o r t involving many institutions in t h e USSR a n d was s t r o n g l y s u p p o r t e d

at

t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l by t h e V.I. Lenin All-Union Academy of Agricultural S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR.

In t h e c o u r s e of t h i s case study a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l seminar was h e l d o n "Results of t h e Development of Mathematical Models f o r Regional Systems of Farm Manage- ment" at S t a v r o p o l o n August 9-12, 1982. The seminar was o r g a n i z e d jointly by t h e USSR Academy of S c i e n c e s , t h e V.I. Lenin All-Union Academy of Agricultural Sci- e n c e s , t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e for Applied Systems Analysis, a n d t h e S t a v r o p o l R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e of Agriculture.

This volume c o n t a i n s some of t h e p a p e r s p r e s e n t e d

at

t h e seminar. These pa- p e r s w e r e published in Russian in t h e J o u r n a l Vestnik Selskochoziastvennoi Nauki ( P r o c e e d i n g s of Agricultural S c i e n c e s ) . Translation i n t o English was d o n e by M s . E.M. S t o l y a r o v a who a l s o h e l p e d in editing. Translation a n d editing across d i s t a n c e h a s t a k e n some time, b u t it is s t i l l c o n s i d e r e d worthwhile t o b r i n g o u t t h i s p r o c e e d -

ings as t h e S t a v r o p o l case s t u d y r e p r e s e n t s a v e r y successful c o l l a b o r a t i o n in applied policy r e s e a r c h between IIASA a n d institutions i n t h e USSR.

Kirit P a r i k h P r o g r a m L e a d e r

Food a n d Agriculture P r o g r a m

-

ⁱⁱⁱ

-

(4)

(5)

List of Participants

External Participants A. Angemuller, GDR T. Georgiev, Bulgaria J. T a r r a n t , UK

E. Reichmann, Austria IIASA Participants K. Parikh

N. Koni jn V. Svetlosanov S. Orlovski

Soviet Participants V.S. Murakhovsky A.A. Nikonov V.M. Penchukov I.S. Shatilov V.I. Nazarenko V.N. Popov V.Y. Lebedev L.N. P e t r o v a E. M. Stolyarova A.V. Vorotyntsev M.P. Evsukov F.I. E r e s h k o I.G. Medvedev V.M. Bryabin V.I. Medennikov S.G. Sirotkin V. V

.

Ponomaryov G .V. Senin

N .N

.

^Moiseyev

(6)

(7)

CURRENT STAGE OF THE DEVELOPhENT OF AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT SYSTEMS IN THE USSR

A.A. Nikonov

.

Academician,

P r e s i d e n t of V.I. Lenin All-Union Academy of Agricultural Sciences

Problems r e l a t e d

to

a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems h a v e invariably r e c e i v e d

a

g r e a t d e a l of attention, both in t h e p r e - and post-revolutionary periods. A t various s t a g e s of t h e development of a g r i c u l t u r a l economics consider- a b l e contribution h a s b e e n made by A.T. Bolotov (1738-1833),

M.G.

Pavlov (1793- 1848), A.V. Sovetov (1826-1901), A.N. ~ n ~ e l ~ a r d t (1832-1893). I.A. S t e b u t (1833- 1923), A.P. Lyudogovsky (1840-1882), A.S. Yermolov (1846-1916), A.I. Skvortsov (1846-1914), A.F. Fortunatov (1856-1925), A.N. Chelintsev (1874-1962), A.V. Chay- anov (1888-1949), A.P. Makarov (1887-1981), L.M. Zaltsman (1896-1982), and

M.I.

Kubanin (1898-1941). But in t h e p a s t such studies were undertaken by individual r e s e a r c h e r s , with t h e r e s u l t s obtained being l i t t l e introduced into t h e g e n e r a l p r a c t i c e of a g r i c u l t u r a l management.

In t h e 1960s, a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems enjoyed

a

large-scale development. Scientists of numerous c e n t r a l and regional r e s e a r c h institutions became involved. In 1960-65 a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems f o r 3 9 n a t u r a l and economic zones

were

e l a b o r a t e d ; in 1971-75 t h e recommendations c o v e r e d 44 zones. By t h e e a r l y 1980s systems had b e e n developed f o r

a

total of 1 5 4 regions, t e r r i t o r i e s , and republics. The s h i f t

to

systems dependent on t h e administrative b o r d e r s of regions w a s effected in o r d e r

to

f a c i l i t a t e t h e introduction of scientific developments into p r a c t i c e .

However, t h e systems developed in t h e r e c e n t p a s t are mainly of a d e s c r i p t i v e n a t u r e , being confined

to

production technology and not covering t h e whole

com-

plex of f a c t o r s t h a t form t h e system. That i s why t h o s e systems could not b e used

as

a tool f o r t h e optimization of r e s o u r c e use. A new, qualitative change in t h e a p p r o a c h t o t h e development of a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems i s r e l a t e d

to

t h e introduction of systems analysis. The development of modern a g r i c u l t u r e is c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a r a p i d growth of t h e r e s o u r c e potential and by a n intensification of t h e production p r o c e s s , with organizational s t r u c t u r e s , as well as i n t r a - and inter-industry r e l a t i o n s , becoming more sophisticated. Under t h e s e conditions t h e problem of t h e optimization of r e s o u r c e use

-

which is considerable now and will continue

to

i n c r e a s e

-

^becomes^moreu r g e n t (Table 1 ) .

(8)

Table 1. Resource potential of Soviet a g r i c u l t u r e (data provided by t h e Central Statistical Bureau of t h e USSR)

Index I

: Agricultural land (106ha)

a r a b l e land reclaimed land

Power capacities (106hp)

E l e c t r i c e n e r g y consump tion (lol'k ~ h ) Fixed productive

assets

in a g r i c u l t u r e ( l o 9 roubles) (comparable p r i c e s of 1973) Mineral f e r t i l i z e r supplies t o

a g r i c u l t u r e ( l o 6 tonnes of nutrients) Annual a v e r a g e number of full-time

employees, including seasonal workers (lo6)

The USSR Food Programme envisages a considerable i n c r e a s e in t h e growth

rates

of a g r i c u l t u r a l production, a n i n c r e a s e of i t s stability under unfavorable weather conditions, and a n improvement of t h e s t r u c t u r e of both t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r and t h e t o t a l agro-industrial complex. The above goals c a n b e achieved provided t h e introduction and establishment of a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems i s effected

at

a l l levels of t h e economy

-

national, regional, and d i s t r i c t levels,

as

w e l l

as at

t h e individual e n t e r p r i s e level. This problem i s becoming increasingly urgent.

Recently, in t h e USSR t h e elaboration of c r o p farming systems w a s finalized.

Studies aimed

at

t h e development of rational animal breeding and feed production systems are under way. Being

as

important

as

they a r e , t h e s e links are c h a r a c - t e r i s t i c of individual systems blocks only. Nowadays, w e f a c e t h e problem of attain- ing a p r o p e r interdependence among t h e system blocks and t h e i r close correspon- dence with t h e r e s o u r c e potential; w e have t o substantiate and put into p r a c t i c e efficient methods of management and r e s o u r c e use.

Let us consider t h e g e n e r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of those f a c t o r s t h a t form t h e system, in t h e light of r e c e n t changes, and show t h e i r e f f e c t upon t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems. The f a c t o r s t o b e considered fall into seven g e n e r a l groups:

political, economic, social and demographic, scientific and technical, organizational and legal, biological and n a t u r a l (Figure 1). I t stands t o r e a s o n t h a t t h e above grouping i s v e r y r e l a t i v e .

Political Factors

I n t e r n a t i o n a l s i t u a t i o n . Since t h e routing of fascism in Europe, o u r coun- t r y h a s been

at

p e a c e f o r almost f o u r decades, due t o t h e peaceful policy of t h e Soviet Government. This provides f o r a r e g u l a r development of and considerable investment in t h e national economy. But t h e existing international tension still f o r c e s us t o give due attention t o defence problems.

World market. The USSR i s closely interlinked with t h e world market. Calcu- l a t e d in comparable p r i c e s , t h e index of foreign t r a d e volume in 1980 w a s f o u r times t h a t in 1960, with a n i n c r e a s e from 1 0 t o 110

xlo9

roubles during t h e same period, in c u r r e n t p r i c e s . Agricultural produce constitutes a considerable s h a r e

(9)

Economic

1 I ! I I I I

Social and

I

AGRICULTURAL MANAGEMENT

Organization Biological

Figure 1. System forming f a c t o r s affecting a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems

in t h e t o t a l foreign t r a d e balance. Soviet foreign t r a d e relations are c e r t a i n t o develop. But

as

f a r as g r a i n i s concerned, we shall s t o p being dependent on t h e world grain market in t h e n e a r f u t u r e , but will continue t o import goods which, due t o climatic conditions in t h e USSR, are e i t h e r not produced o r whose production i s limited.

Agrarian policy. The USSR a g r a r i a n policy i s aimed

at

t h e stimulation of production growth, and

at

t h e consistent intensification and industrialization of agriculture. The s h a r e of a g r i c u l t u r a l investments accounts f o r 27% of t h e t o t a l input t o t h e national economy. In t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e t h i s s h a r e i s likely t o remain unchanged.

Economic Factors

h e Demand f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l produce i s v e r y high, with requirements not being fully satisfied and t h e domestic market having a high capacity. Producers' prices f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l produce a r e r a t h e r s t a b l e , and a r e revised approximately e v e r y five y e a r s . The last r i s e in p r i c e s took place e a r l y in 1983, according t o t h e d e c r e e issued by t h e P l e n a r y Session of t h e Central Committee of t h e Communist P a r t y of t h e Soviet Union ( t h e Session .took place in May 1982). This measure made i t possible t o eliminate t h e difference between t h e p u r c h a s e p r i c e s paid f o r agricultural produce, on t h e one hand, and t h e rapidly growing p r i c e s f o r t h e indus- t r i a l means of production in t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r , on t h e o t h e r hand. But t h e p r i c e mechanism i s of

a

dynamic n a t u r e and i s t o b e adjusted constantly. P r i c e

(10)

level and p r i c e r a t i o c a n s e r v e both as stimulating and limiting f a c t o r s , depending on t h e economic situation.

The f i n a n c i a l p o l i c y of t h e Government f a v o r s t h e development of agricul- t u r e with wide possibilities f o r obtaining c r e d i t . The level of a g r i c u l t u r a l i n v e s t - m e n t s is r a t h e r high, but still i s not sufficient t o satisfy t h e requirements. That i s why t h e efficient and economical use of capital investments is important.

Economic i n t e r e s t s a r e of c r u c i a l importance. P r i v a t e i n t e r e s t s a r e t o b e reasonably combined with collective ones. Possible contradictions a r e t o b e fore- s e e n and eliminated. Infringement on p r i v a t e , collective, o r s t a t e i n t e r e s t s has, invariably, a detrimental e f f e c t upon production development and r e s t r i c t s i t s growth. In t h i s connection i t should b e emphasized t h a t decisions made recently were aimed

at

t h e elimination of t h e above contradictions.

Social and Demographic Factors

The h u m a n f a c t o r h a s invariably played a decisive r o l e in any production development. Man, with his mental, physical, and ethical capacities, has been and will remain t h e principal productive f o r c e of society. No technical equipment o r automatic machines c a n diminish t h e importance of t h i s f a c t o r . On t h e c o n t r a r y , i t s importance i s increasing, since with time t h e scientific alld technical p r o g r e s s is becoming a g r e a t e r challenge t o man.

U r b a n i z a t i o n a n d p o p u l a t i o n d e n s i t y have a considerable impact upon t h e formation of a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems in t h e USSR. In t h e last 20 y e a r s t h e s h a r e of u r b a n population increased from 50 t o 64%. In t h e r u r a l s e c t o r t h e number of those employed (including t h e i r family members) accounts f o r 24%.

Rural population i s decreasing, both in absolute terms and in p e r c e n t a g e , which r e s u l t s in a growth of t h e number of net-consumers of a g r i c u l t u r a l produce.

The p r o v i s i o n of a g r i c u l t u r e w i t h Labor r e s o u r c e s in g e n e r a l seems t o b e r a t h e r high

-

t h e s h a r e of those engaged in t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r amounts t o 20%

of t h e total number employed. But t h e distribution of l a b o r r e s o u r c e s i s not uni- form

-

southern regions, especially Central Asia, a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by a n abundance of l a b o r f o r c e , while n o r t h e r n and western regions a r e c u r r e n t l y experienc- ing l a b o r shortages. The organization and technology of a g r i c u l t u r a l management a r e aimed

at

retaining t h e l a b o r f o r c e .

The s e z - a g e s t r u c t u r e of t h e r u r a l s e c t o r h a s changed considerably in r e c e n t y e a r s ; t h e p e r c e n t a g e of t h e aging population h a s increased. In a number of regions, owing t o t h e s h o r t a g e s of working places t h a t would

meet

young people's demands, t h e migration of g i r l s t o urban a r e a s h a s increased. Thus, t h e p r e s e n t situation u r g e s t h e speeding up of t h e industrialization of a g r i c u l t u r e and of t h e improvement in living and working conditions. With t h i s in mind t h e skill of those employed in a g r i c u l t u r e i s t o b e improved. F o r t h i s purpose a n extensive network of higher and secondary technical schools h a s been established.

The s o c i a l i M r a s t r u c t u r e in a g r i c u l t u r e i s somewhat lagging behind those in o t h e r s e c t o r s of t h e agro-industrial complex. For this r e a s o n a g r i c u l t u r a l investments in t h e 1980s will b e increased considerably.

Scientific and Technical Factors

Azvelopment of s c i e n c e a n d t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of s c i e n t i f i c i n f o r m a t i o n . In this s p h e r e of c r u c i a l importance i s t h e development of t h e biological, technical, and socioeconomic sciences, as well

as

t h e availability of scientific and technical information. In t h e USSR t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l hundred scientific establishments f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , including 240 r e s e a r c h institutions. R e s e a r c h work i s a l s o conducted in 104 higher educational institutions on a g r i c u l t u r e . The V.I. Lenin All-Union

(11)

Academy of Agricultural Sciences h a s 12'7 r e s e a r c h institutions. A scientific b a s e h a s been established in all t h e regions of t h e country; however, i t s level varies. In e a s t e r n regions t h e scientific personnel i s not as numerous as i s d e s i r a b l e or as e x i s t s in o t h e r r e g i o n s of t h e USSR. However, t h e network of scientific institutions makes i t possible t o c a r r y o u t r e s e a r c h work

at

both t h e national a n d regional levels.

The development of t e c h n i q u e s i n power e n g i n e e r i n g , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n , a n d t h e chemical i n d u s t r y provides f o r t h e establishment of a material and technical b a s e f o r a g r i c u l t u r e , and t h i s i s a major p a r t of t h e r e s o u r c e potential. The development of t h e s e b r a n c h e s of t h e national economy follows a r a t h e r dynamic p a t t e r n , though t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l sector i s constantly in need of a n i n c r e a s e d supply of industrial means of production.

R o g r e s s i n t h e t e c h n o l o g y of p r o d u c t i o n , of s t o r a g e , a n d of p r o c e s s i n g t h e p r o d u c e not only determines,

to

a considerable e x t e n t , t h e p a t t e r n of development of t h e economy, but provides f o r t h e qualitative and quantitative growth of production as well. Under c u r r e n t conditions w e f a c e a n u r g e n t problem of controlling losses in e v e r y possible way and of improving t h e quality of a g r i c u l t u r a l p r o d u c e throughout t h e p r o c e s s from f a r m field

to

consumer.

A g r i c u l t u r a l s e r v i c e a n d t h e p r o d u c t i o n i n g r a s t r u c t u r e of a g r i c u l t u r e a r e closely r e l a t e d t o t h e production p r o c e s s p r o p e r . This sector needs

to

b e thoroughly amended and modernized. F o r this r e a s o n , in t h e 1980s i t i s planned t o i n c r e a s e considerably investments in t h e processing industry, in s t o r a g e facilities, in r o a d construction, and in t r a n s p o r t and t r a d e .

Organization and Legal Factors

These f a c t o r s , a1on.g with t h e economic f a c t o r s , constitute t h e management mechanism, t h e i r importance increasing with time.

Legal r u l e s a n d l e g i s l a t i o n follow a dynamic p a t t e r n of development. Thus, in t h e last two y e a r s a number of important d e c r e e s w a s issued, aimed

at

stimulating t h e initiative of t h e working teams.

%stems a n d m e t h o d s of p r o d u c t i o n m a n a g e m e n t . Currently, measures are being taken aimed

at

t h e g r a d u a l switching

to

economic methods of a g r i c u l t u r a l management,

at

t h e c o n t r o l a n d supervision of t h e whole agro-industrial complex, a n d

at

establishing interindustry, democratic administrative bodies

at

all levels

-

national, regional,

etc.

In p r o d u c t i o n p l a n n i n g t h e r e i s a t r e n d toward increasing t h e independence of production e n t e r p r i s e s , and decreasing t h e number of t a r g e t f i g u r e s ("aggre- g a t e d t a r g e t figures"), with a maximum coordination of t h e

latter

with t h e r e s o u r c e potential.

The d i v i s i o n of l a b o r i s becoming more profound. In a g r i c u l t u r e a g r e a t e r differentiation of production g r o u p s (production "links") i s taking place. Indepen- d e n t , administrative bodies a n d organizations are being established

to

b e responsi- b l e for c e r t a i n limited fields of activity.

C o o p e r a t i o n a n d i n t e g r a t i o n of p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s e s i s closely r e l a t e d t o t h e differentiation p r o c e s s . Cooperation and integration should closely follow t h e p a t t e r n of l a b o r division p r o c e s s e s

to

p r e v e n t individual departments a n d g r o u p s f r o m being isolated.

D i s c i p l i n e

-

technological, l a b o r ,

state -

i s a n important management f a c t o r . Measures aimed

at

maintaining s t r i c t discipline in t h e r e l a t i o n s between production b r a n c h e s and individual e n t e r p r i s e s ,

as

w e l l as in working teams, will f a v o r t h e development of t h e whole production p r o c e s s .

(12)

Biological Factors

Biological f a c t o s are of c r u c i a l importance, since a g r i c u l t u r e as a branch of social production i s based on t h e use of plant and animal organisms and on t h e s t r i c t observance of biological laws.

The c r o p farming system depends t o a considerable e x t e n t on t h e c r o p s a n d v a r i e t i e s used. In r e c e n t y e a r s Soviet plant b r e e d e r s have developed dozens of highly productive v a r i e t i e s and hybrids of cultivated plants. However, only 30 t o 40% of t h e i r biological potential (50 t o 60%

at

t h e most) i s used; n e i t h e r h a s t h e genetic potential been exhausted. Owing t o t h e s e v e r e climatic conditions of t h e country t h e g r e a t e s t emphasis i s t o b e laid on t h e development of highly r e s i s t a n t v a r i e t i e s and hybrids.

K i n d s a n d b r e e d s of a n i m a l s are of considerable importance in t h e animal breeding system. In t h e USSR a g r e a t diversity of b r e e d s and b r e e d groups of

cat-

t l e , swine, and poultry h a s been developed; however, t h e i r biological potential

-

like t h a t of plant r e s o u r c e s

-

i s not sufficiently used. Soviet a g r i c u l t u r e i s still facing t h e problem of improving animal b r e e d s , increasing t h e i r productivity, and improving t h e feed conversion r a t i o .

P h y t o - a n d z o o - h y g i e n i c c o n d i t i o n s . In t h e USSR a ramified network of v e t e r i n a r y and plant protection stations has been established. Many harmful p e s t s and diseases have been completely eradicated, but p e s t and disease control still remains quite a n urgent problem. Moreover, with t h e intensification of a g r i c u l t u r e t h e importance of this f a c t o r increases.

Natural Factors

C l i m a t e . In t h e USSR zones of a g r i c u l t u r a l production a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by quite d i v e r s e climatic conditions. Up t o 70% of a g r i c u l t u r a l land i s in a r i d and semiarid zones. The sum of a c t i v e t e m p e r a t u r e s (over 1 0 OC) r a n g e s from 400 OC in t h e Arctic belt, where only protected-ground farming i s possible, t o 4600 OC in t h e south of Central Asia. The annual precipitation r a t e also r a n g e s widely on t h e climatic zone

-

^from¹⁰⁰^{t o 800}

^mm.

In t h e majority of a g r i c u l t u r a l a r e a s t h e annual precipitation

rate

i s within t h e r a n g e 350 t o 500 mm. The duration of t h e f r o s t - f r e e period r a n g e s from 60 t o 240 days, and t h e intensity of s o l a r radiation varies.

A comparison of t h e n a t u r a l conditions f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l management in t h e USSR with those in t h e USA shows t h e l a t t e r t o b e in a f a r b e t t e r position (Table 2).

A s c a n b e s e e n from Table 2, n a t u r a l conditions f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l management in t h e USSR a r e much more s e v e r e than those in t h e USA. However, many regions of o u r country a r e notable f o r a favorable combination of t e m p e r a t u r e and mois- t u r e supply f a c t o r . T h e r e f o r e , in g e n e r a l o u r bioclimatic potential provides f o r a considerable i n c r e a s e of output (despite t h e f a c t t h a t , on a v e r a g e , t h e output- p e r - h e c t a r e index f o r t h e USA is 2.3 times t h a t f o r t h e USSR). Different combinations of climatic f a c t o r s call f o r a n individual a p p r o a c h t o t h e development of sys-

t e m s

of a g r i c u l t u r a l management.

Soil c o v e r in t h e USSR i s quite diverse, not only by geographical zones, t e r r i - t o r i e s , and regions, but a l s o within t h e limits of individual farms as w e l l . The r e l i u i s d i v e r s e and e x e r t s

a

s t r o n g influence upon t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l management sys-

t e m s .

Water s u p p l y . While t h e a v e r a g e water supply index f o r t h e country i s high, f o r t h e southern regions i t i s f a r from satisfactory. This h a s urged t h e development of p r o j e c t s t h a t envisage a p a r t of t h e run-off of t h e n o r t h e r n r i v e r s t o b e channelled t o t h e south regions. On t h e whole, water i s becoming a limiting f a c t o r

(13)

Table 2. Natural conditions f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l management in t h e USSR and USA

Index USSR USA

Agricultural land as a p e r c e n t a g e of t h e t o t a l t e r r i t o r y

P e r c e n t a g e of a g r i c u l t u r a l land lying south of t h e 48th p a r a l l e l

P e r c e n t a g e of a r a b l e land lying in t h e zones with annual precipitation r a t e :

o v e r 700 mm 1.1 60.0

f r o m 400 t o 700

mm

58.9 29.0

below 400

mm

40.0 11.0

P e r c e n t a g e of a r a b l e land lying in t h e zone

with t h e annual a v e r a g e t e m p e r a t u r e below 5 "C 60 1 0

in t h e most of t h e USSR. F o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e whole of production technology should imply t h e economical a n d efficient use of water r e s o u r c e s .

Environmental control. In t h e f i r s t place w e have to provide f o r a n efficient c o n t r o l of wind and

water

soil erosion, and t o p r e v e n t t h e exhaustion and pollution of water s o u r c e s ; in o t h e r words w e have t o provide for a n efficient nature- conservation s e r v i c e . This means t h a t all t h e management systems h a v e t o b e environment-oriented, providing for t h e prevention of any possible negative eco- logical consequences.

Considerable climatic d i v e r s i t i e s r e s u l t in a g r e a t v a r i e t y in t h e levels of t h e intensification of a g r i c u l t u r a l production. The r a t i o between t h e economic regions with t h e lowest and t h e highest output f r o m t h e unit area i s within t h e r a n g e of 125 ( s e e Figure 2).

Thus, t h e essence of the agricuLturaL management s y s t e m

-

how i t i s under- stood now

-

^comes^down

^to

organizational, economic, and technological principles t h a t a r e basic

to

a design of t h e locally-dependent management system t h a t

meets

t h e population's demand for a g r i c u l t u r a l produce.

Consequently, a management system i s

a

complex of scientific principles t h a t

meet

t h e requirements laid down by t h e systems a p p r o a c h , r a t h e r t h a n a

set

of individual, technological methods

as

i t

was

believed

to

be; t h e s e principles includes t h e integrity, p r o p o r t i o n , and validity of s t r u c t u r e s , t h e i r relationships and functions, and t h e dynamic p a t t e r n of t h e i r development with t h e efficient use of t h e r e s o u r c e potential.

The objective of a n a g r i c u l t u r a l management system i s not

to

achieve inter- mediate goals, such

as

obtaining a high yield or increasing animal productivity, but t o achieve t h e final r e s u l t s t h a t production i s aimed

at -

meeting t h e population's demand for food products. A management system i s supposed t o consider t h e whole complex of objective conditions with a n i n t e g r a t e d a p p r o a c h

to

t h e i r evaluation and t o provide for t h e efficient u s e of t h e whole of t h e r e s o u r c e potential.

A system of a g r i c u l t u r a l management can b e r e g a r d e d both as a n objective t h e r e s e a r c h work i s aimed

at

a n d a n o b j e c t t o b e realized. This means t h a t t h e notion

"management systems" implies both i t s development and introduction into p r a c t i c e .

(14)

Figure 2. The a g r i c u l t u r a l production intensity by economic regions of t h e USSR (gross output p e r 1 h e c t a r e of a g r i c u l t u r a l lands, roubles):

I, North region; 11, North-West; 111, Central; IV, Volgo-Vyatka; V, Central Chernozem; VI, Volga; VII, North Caucasus; VIII, Urals;

IX, West S i b e r i a ; X, E a s t S i b e r i a ; XI, F a r E a s t ; XII, Donets- Dnieper; XIII, South-West; XIV, South; XV, Byelorussia; XVI, Bal- t i c ; XVII, Transcaucasia; XVIII, Kazakhstan; XIX, Central Asia;

XX, Moldavia.

(15)

The s t r u c t u r e of a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems i s r a t h e r complex, having a dual n a t u r e . On t h e one hand, i t i s a complex of production b r a n c h systems

-

^soil

technology and c r o p farming, plant growing, feed production, animal breeding, which in t h e i r t u r n include numerous subsystems; on t h e o t h e r hand, management systems a r e r e g a r d e d as a n integrity of a number of components and c h a r a c t e r i s - tics. These are:

Socioeconomic form of enterprises. In t h e USSR public e n t e r p r i s e s prevail:

s t a t e ( s t a t e farms) and cooperative (collective farms).

Organization, including production branch s t r u c t u r e , specialization, and cooperation.

Technology, which i s going t o become more industrialized with a n extensive introduction of automated mechanisms.

Economic mechanism of management as a whole.

A l l t h e s e f a c t o r s t a k e n t o g e t h e r constitute

a

method f o r t h e use of t h e r e s o u r c e potential.

What problems

are

t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems now faced with? M u - i m i z a t i o n of t h e high-quality produce output p e r unit of r e s o u r c e potential. The

latter

includes a bioclimatic potential, as well

as

land, water, l a b o r , plant, energy, and o t h e r r e s o u r c e s . Minimization of t h e r e s o u r c e input p e r unit of t h e production output, a n o t h e r a s p e c t of t h e maximization problem, but t h e s e t a r g e t s are not identical. Another problem i s t o i n c r e a s e resistance t o unfavorable f a c t o r s . The management systems

are

t o b e adequate f o r t h e objective conditions of production. The possible social a n d economic consequences must a l s o b e considered.

The requirements laid down f o r management systems and t h e v e r y essence of t h e systems necessitate

a

s t r i c t methodological approach. Descriptions, g e n e r a l considerations, and recommendations a r e u t t e r l y inadequate. Systems analysis with economic and mathematical modeling must b e t h e basis f o r t h e development of any management system.

We have developed many and various models

at

both All-Union and regional levels, t h e f i r s t of note being t h e Food Programme; o t h e r models include those of food subcomplexes, models f o r t h e use of individual r e s o u r c e s (e.g.,

water

r e s o u r c e s ) , production allocation models, regional models of t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l development. But t h e p r e s e n t situation necessitates t h e i r thorough improvement, with a maximum coordination of t h e i r components, a n introduction of modern tech- nologies, and a reflection of t h e whole complex of changing environmental conditions.

Now a g r a r i a n science i s faced with t h e problem of developing such r e c u r s i v e dialogue models ( t h e problem

"at

large"). Therefore, of considerable importance i s t h e e x p e r i e n c e gained by t h e cooperation between institutions of t h e All-Union Academy of Sciences, t h e USSR Academy of Sciences, and t h e International Insti- t u t e f o r Applied Systems Analysis. The Stavropol R e s e a r c h Institute of Agricul- t u r e h a s become one of t h e f i r s t t o t a k e p a r t in such cooperation.

Of considerable scientific and p r a c t i c a l i n t e r e s t

are

problems r e l a t e d t o t h e organization of r e s e a r c h work and t h e development of regional models of agricul- t u r a l management systems (to b e followed by models

at

t h e All-Union level). There- f o r e , in all t h e leading and regional r e s e a r c h institutions groups should be organized t h a t

are

responsible f o r t h e development of model systems f o r

a

p a r t i c u l a r production b r a n c h o r region. Obviously, special training of t h e scientific personnel must b e planned in o r d e r t o

master

new methods of investigation in this partic- u l a r field. Both s t a t i s t i c a l and empirical d a t a need t o b e accumulated. These d a t a banks must b e constantly systematized, replenished, and updated.

(16)

I t is planned t o supply r e s e a r c h institutions with modern computers, t h e i r efficient use presupposing cooperation. But t h e principal f a c t o r is t h e profes- sional skill of those who o p e r a t e and use t h e computers. This s p h e r e i s t o b e given special consideration; w e have t o k e e p p a c e with t h e p r o g r e s s being made in sci- e n c e and technology, and provide f o r control o v e r t h e realization of t h e systems, with t h e necessary adjustments t o b e made according t o changing weather, economic, and o t h e r conditions. Systems of a g r i c u l t u r e are dynamic; t h e r e f o r e situational models a r e of considerable importance. A system of management which i s t o become a system of models and modules should b e e l a b o r a t e d

at

all t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l levels, i.e., f o r e v e r y administrative unit

-

region, t e r r i t o r y , repub- lic (and, subsequently, f o r e v e r y location and farm).

R e s e a r c h e s being conducted

at

t h e Stavropol R e s e a r c h Institute of Agricul- t u r e c a n b e r e g a r d e d as t h e beginning .of t h e s e important activities. Systems of a g r i c u l t u r a l models f o r t h e Stavropol region, and t h e Novoalexandrovsk region have been developed in cooperation with t h e Computing Center of t h e USSR Academy of Sciences and t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis.

Quantitative analysis of t h e impact of n a t u r a l conditions upon t h e economic c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s have been c a r r i e d out; s e v e r a l possible versions of a g r i c u l t u r a l production development were given; requirements f o r additional inputs have been evaluated. In o t h e r words, important f a c t o r s have been revealed t h a t provide f o r b e t t e r c o n t r o l o v e r t h e development of t h e agro-industrial complex of a region and i t s administrative units.

Naturally, many items in t h e models need elaboration. This r e f e r s f i r s t of all t o t h e evaluation of t h e impact of t h e above-mentioned f a c t o r s upon t h e regional a g r i c u l t u r a l management system. This r e s e a r c h work should b e expanded and con- tinued. Thus, a methodological basis f o r a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems will b e c r e a t e d f o r s e p a r a t e regions, with t h e All-Union model t o follow.

Such

are

t h e

state

and p r o s p e c t s of activities in modeling a g r i c u l t u r a l management systems in t h e USSR. The extensive development of r e s e a r c h activi- t i e s will call f o r cardinal decisions t o b e made regarding t h e advanced training of specialists, t h e changing of s t r u c t u r e s of r e s e a r c h institutions, and t h e establishment of a n information base. These problems have t o b e solved. Goals t o b e attained conform t o t h e economic policy adopted by o u r Government f o r t h e 1980s.

The s t r a t e g y i s aimed

at

optimally meeting people's demand, on t h e basis of t h e dynamic and intensive development of t h e national economy and

a

rational use of r e s o u r c e s .

(17)

ON THE METHODOLOGY O F MATHEWkTICAL MODELING OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION PROCESSES

N.N.

Moiseyev

Academician,

Deputy Director of the Computing Center of t h e USSR Academy of Sciences

Methods of mathematical modeling with t h e use

of

computers

are

gradually gaining ground. In t h e last

10-15

years they have been successfully used f o r the analysis of problems of agricultural management and

for

decision making in t h e studies of biological nature. The process of assimilating new methods f o r produc- tion management and f o r t h e organization of r e s e a r c h work

is

under way in

all t h e

developed countries, reflecting a n objective demand f o r improved methodological tools f o r managers and scientists.

Being gradually accumulated

are

experience and understanding of t h e spheres of, and ways of application of, methods

of

management and r e s e a r c h based on t h e use of mathematical modeling.

A t

t h e same time t h e r e a r e

still

many points t h a t require clarification. The solution of

a

number of problems i s often restrained by a poor understanding of t h e fundamentals of mathematical modeling. For this rea- son the assimilation

of

t h e new methodology

is

one of the most important problems t o be solved in many of t h e studies being made by specialists employing mathemati-

cal

models.

Mathematical modeling

is

but one of numerous methods of processing empirical data. Like any o t h e r method

t h i s

one

is

not universal.

A

r e s e a r c h e r - ^{no matter}

what field

of

knowledge h e deals with - biology o r economics - should know all t h e advantages and disadvantages of t h e method, and when exactly

it

has t o be applied.

Any experimenter

is

aware of t h e simplest methods

of

mathematical modeling -

those methods of multifactorial regression analysis. With

a

number of empirical values being influenced by various factors,

a

r e s e a r c h e r can make assumptions regarding t h e nature of t h e functional relationships between the various parame- ters. With the use

of

t h e least-squares method h e has a n analytical expression t h a t

relates

the value in question t o t h e

factors

this value

is

dependent on. This expression is t h e simplest mathematical model. It can be used

^for

prognoses and decision making.

The use of such

a

model f o r prognoses

is

based on t h e assumption t h a t t h e

established relationship

is

universal, and t h a t t h e actual environmental conditions

determining the process being prognosed

are

identical t o those of t h e study.

(18)

Such approaches

are

known t o have been quite satisfactory in practice. How- ever, approaches based on statistical methods

are

also being actively developed.

Thus, in r e c e n t years many new concepts have been proposed by Professor

A.G.

Ivakhnenko and his colleagues in Kiev, that have provided f o r

a

successful han- dling of small samples.

Let us assume now t h a t

w e

have some information describing t h e nature of t h e relationships being analyzed. This information

w i l l

provide f o r

a

more suitable

class

of functions t o be used f o r t h e approximation of

actual

functional relation- ships. Such relationships often have t h e form of various balance ratios (laws of conservation) t h a t have t o be adhered to. They reduce considerably t h e number of independent factors and, consequently, t h e amount of experimental work t o be done. Ignoring these

l a w s

and relationships usually results in serious e r r o r s . Let us take

a

simple example.

Assume t h a t

w e are

studying factors that determine the profit gained by an agricultural enterprise from t h e plant growing sector. Factors r e f e r r e d t o are t h e amount of fertilizers, t h e labor force, t h e size and s t r u c t u r e of t h e acreage, t h e average c r o p yields, etc.

Of

course,

w e

can derive directly

a

linear regres- sion function; processing t h e series of values

w i l l

result in

a

functional relation- ship that describes the profit as influenced by t h e above-mentioned factors. But

if w e

wish t o use t h e

m o d e l

obtained f o r prediction purposes, w e discover t h a t

it

leads t o results t h a t poorly conform to t h e

real

situation. The reason f o r such discrepancy

lies

in t h e

fact

t h a t w e have not taken into account relationships between t h e above-mentioned factors. The profit from any c r o p

is

always propor- tional t o t h e product of average c r o p yield and t h e area under t h e crop. Conse- quently, linear regression equations

are

not applicable here.

All

this

is

very well-known; yet mistakes of this kind

are still

very frequent.

A t

t h e present time principles of mathematical modeling are based on t h e

laws

of physics, including f i r s t of

all

t h e

l a w of

conservation of mass. t h e

l a w

of conser- vation of energy, and t h e

l a w

of conservation of impulse. Mathematical modeling does not exclude t h e use of

statistical

methods. Balance ratios (laws of conserva- tion),

as

a rule, afford no opportunity to build

a

closed

model: a

number of values always remains undetermined. To determine t h e i r magnitude, special experiments and regression analyses must be c a r r i e d out. But t h e combination of t h e

laws

of physics and statistical methods affords t h e possibility of building

a

mathematical model which provides

for

a b e t t e r validity of t h e prognoses, as compared to those based on t h e use of models of

a

purely regression

type.

However, t h e d i r e c t t r a n s f e r of modeling methods used in physics t o t h e spheres of biology and econom- ics may sometimes prove to be

a

failure. Let us dwell upon this, and f i r s t consider problems related t o t h e use of mathematical models in biological research.

Extensive use of balance ratios f o r t h e description of processes taking place

in nature commenced

after

t h e publication of scientific works by an outstanding

Italian mathematician and naturalist, Vito Volterra. The success

of

his studies

gave

rise

t o a kind of "scientific euphoria": i t seemed that a consistent use of t h e

principles of mathematical descriptions of physical processes would be

as

success-

ful in biology and economics as in physics. But t h e situation proved to be much

modeling in physics is based on t h e so-

called "reduction" principle, i.e., t h e more comprehensive t h e study of a

phenomenon

is,

t h e more accurate t h e model will be. In o t h e r words,

all

t h e

characteristics of t h e whole can be derived from t h e characteristics of individual

parameters of t h e process in question. Therefore, when cognizing processes t h a t

take place in inanimate nature, r e s e a r c h e r s seek to reduce t h e study of a

phenomenon t o a detailed analysis of t h e particulars. Let us assume that t h e

phenomenon

of

gas movement

is

being studied. If t h e

laws

of t h e interaction of

(19)

molecules are known, then t h e behavior of any gas volume under any conditions can be calculated beforehand, using t h e continuous medium equations. In this c a s e macrolevel c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

-

t h e behavior of a given gas volume

- ^are

determined by microlevel c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , i.e., t h e n a t u r e of t h e interaction between molecules and t h e environmental impacts. That i s why a physicist s e e k s

to

build models t h a t

most

accurately reproduce t h e details of t h e phenomena in question.

Understanding of such details is basic

to

t h e study of

a

phenomenon

as a

whole.

The "reduction" principle in biology and economics v e r y often does not work

at dl.

In agricultural science

as

a r u l e a n integral systems approach is required.

The integral approach,

as

a scientific concept, deals with principles of t h e self- organization of animate

matter

and t h e creation of new integrities. This means t h a t f o r such objects t h e i r integrity must b e considered. W e can, f o r instance, c u t off one

or t w o

leaves from

a

plant, but i t will still r e t a i n i t s integrity. But under

cer-

tain conditions, having disturbed t h e s t r u c t u r e of a plant,

w e

find t h a t i t h a s ceased

to

exist because it h a s lost its integrity. One can b e fully

aware

of t h e pho- tosynthetic processes occurring in leaves, and can make

a

comprehensive study of t h e physical and chemical processes occurring in t h e

root

system and of t h e interaction of t h e

latter

with soil; one can know w e l l all t h e subtleties of t h e func- tioning of plant elements, but such knowledge is insufficient

to

describe t h e plant life

as a

whole. Just

as

t h e behavior of t h e h e r d is impossible

to

d e s c r i b e from knowledge of t h e t r a i t s of a n individual animal. There is a n abundance of similar examples.

And y e t mathematical models of biological processes based on t h e principles of physics successfully s e r v e p r a c t i c a l purposes. If

w e

seek

to

summarize t h e gen- eral c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of "good" models, in p a r t i c u l a r those of t h e Volterra type which have proved t h e i r value, w e discover t h e following thing. The b e s t predictive models

are

those t h a t describe t h e p r o c e s s in a sufficiently aggregated way.

When used

to

d e s c r i b e populations t h a t

are

big enough

to

"wipe off" t h e e f f e c t of t h e behavior of individual species, t h e Volterra models d e s c r i b e t h e real situation well.

In compliance with t h e above a n experiment is

to

b e programmed. If in studying population dynamics

w e are

going

to

use d a t a t h a t d e s c r i b e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and behavior of individual

animals or

plants,

w e are

c e r t a i n

to

^fail

to

build a

"good" predictive model. Such a n approach w i l l not r e v e a l t h e integral t r a i t s inherent in t h e population.

Thus, low-detail ("rough") models often prove t o b e

more

suitable f o r practical purposes, b e t t e r describing t h e integral c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e system in question than d o high-detail models.

In t h e USSR and o t h e r countries r e s e a r c h work is under way

to

derive a

set

of models t h a t d e s c r i b e plant development. A l l t h e studies of this kind have one thing in common

-

maximum detailing of

a

process, with t h e maximum possible number of

factors

and interactions being considered. This r e s u l t s in t h e derivation of r a t h e r complex models t h a t

are

difficult

to

have "saturated" with t h e necessary information and "linked"

to a

c o n c r e t e object. For instance, models t h a t w e l l describe processes of t h e growth and development of a c r o p on acid soils, d o not work on alkaline soils,

etc.

This r e s u l t s in t h e derivation of

a

l a r g e number of different models t h a t have

to

b e individually adapted

to

local conditions. I t is just t h e s e high-detail models t h a t d not account for t h e integrity of a n organism, which primarily manifests itself in t h e adaptive power of organized

matter.

An organism is capable of redistributing i t s r e s o u r c e s , optimizing t h e i r use, compensating f o r defects,

etc.

These t r a i t s

are

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c not only of individual plants, but also of t h e given sown

area as a

whole.

(20)

While observing t h e integrity characteristics, a r e s e a r c h e r often

fails

t o pro- vide a n adequate verbal description. And

it is

no wonder. The integral approach as a scientific concept

is

in its initial stages and adequate methods t o construct integral descriptions are unlikely t o a p p e a r in t h e n e a r future. However, o u r present understanding of t h e problem makes it possible to give a number of practi-

cal

recommendations.

first,

t h e use of complex, high-detail plant-growth

m o d e l s

f o r management purposes (allocation of areas under different crops, fertilizer application systems, choosing t h e right tillage system, etc.) is believed t o be irrational. But t h e use of aggregated

m o d e l s calls

f o r a n experiment t o be specially organized. The problem of building

m o d e l s

and organizing t h e experiment have t o be solved simultaneously.

Thus, of crucial importance now

is

t h e problem of organizing

a

monitored and con- trolled experiment in o r d e r t o build models containing

f e w

parameters.

Second,

plant growth

m o d e l s

based on t h e detailed description of t h e processes

of

photosynthesis and plant-soil interactions are t o be intensively developed as

well.

But t h e i r objective

is

different. They are t o provide f o r t h e understanding of t h e nature of mechanisms t h a t determine t h e growth and develop- ment of plants and t o facilitate studies of t h e possibilities of adaptation and

self-

organization. Such

mcxlels

are primarily designed f o r r e s e a r c h work, but they can be used successfully f o r practical purposes as

well.

Using these

m o d e l s w e

can parameterize a number of relationships, thus simplifying t h e

m o d e l

run.

There

are

some o t h e r recommendations of a purely pragmatic nature. One of.

these

is

t h e so-called "stability principle", which has t h e following implications. If a n empirical model proves t o be too sensitive t o t h e impact of individual f a c t o r s -

i.e.,

s m a l l

changes in t h e factors cause considerable changes of

a

variable in ques- tion - then such a

m o d e l is

s u r e t o be inadequate. In such cases w e have t o look f o r o t h e r combinations of variables.

For studies of agricultural economic problems with t h e use of mathematical models, w e face difficulties

s i m i l a r

to those being encountered in studies

of

biolog- ical processes. The human

factor

brings about a n additional level

of

uncertainty.

The system of mathematical

models

in economics

is

still

far

from perfect, which reflects, t o a certain extent, t h e level of economic science

itself. Models

t h a t have actually proved t h e i r value are those of a n "account type". This t e r m is assumed t o cover calculations of various balances and normative characteristics of t h e economy. But as a r u l e such balance

m o d e l s

are insufficient t o solve economic problems. Without upsetting t h e balance conditions, t h e manager of a n enterprise can practice various allocations of economic resources. This means t h a t t h e final result will depend on t h e decisions made regarding r e s o u r c e alloca- tion.

In economics various optimization approaches are widely used. They can help avoid t h e multivaluedness inherent in balance models, since they determine t h e resource allocation. Optimization approaches play a n important r o l e in economic analysis, reflecting t h e nature of t h e decision-making processes. Indeed, when seeking t o achieve

a

goal, one t r i e s t o do s o in t h e cheapest way. For this reason optimization methods

are

a n important element of economic calculations. But t h e problem of objective functions always remains unclear. This issue received too

lit- tle

attention in economics. However, t h e problem is quite urgent, t h e more s o as t h e objectives are usually r a t h e r contradictory; thus, quality improvement always results in t h e increase of expenditures, etc. Strictly speaking, it

is

impossible simultaneously t o decrease t h e production costs, while improving t h e quality. thus affecting "maximum production at minimum production expenditures".

Similar conflicts o c c u r in t h e objectives and interests of various

(21)

organizations; of course, t h e i r interests a r e not antagonistic, but they do not coin- cide either, and this

is

something t o be taken into consideration. Regional "mono- polists", such as Selkhoztechnika, Selkhozkhimia, and construction organizations, s e r v e as typical examples - while seeking t o attain t h e i r own objectives they often ignore

f a r m

interests.

Reality, according to t h e scientific conception of dialectics,

is

a constant clash and fight of opposites, aspirations, and interests. Therefore, economic processes can be regarded not only

as

technological problems and production activities, but also

as

processes of social development. "Pure" production activity

can

be modeled; indeed

it is

being studied in detail, but in reality no "pure"

economics exists. Representatives of the vulgar bourgeois political economy, such as Valras, Menger, and o t h e r "ideologists" of that period (at t h e close of t h e nineteenth century) sought to develop t h e "pure" economics concept, but without success. According t o Marxism, economic and social f a c t o r s

are

t o be considered in t h e i r integral unity.

A s

Marx put it, man's activities are invariably aimed at meeting his various demands.

Therefore, one of t h e most important objectives of a socialist economy

is

to study the effect of social factors upon t h e characteristics of t h e national economy, the s t r u c t u r e of production relationships, as

w e l l

as those interests, aspirations, and local objectives that production relationships give r i s e t o in production teams and individual farm managers. That

is

why agricultural management

is

t o be oriented not only t o t h e simplest mechanisms - planning mechanisms using balance-type models - but also t o the real mechanisms governing t h e human

ele-

ment. It should be

always

kept in mind t h a t t a r g e t figures and objectives which are set by a

f e w

people are realized by millions of working people. Therefore, the objective of the science

is

to develop a management system t h a t will provide f o r t h e maximum labor productivity to be attained by millions of working people.

In the centralized, socialist economic

system

w e have many possibilities f o r t h e purposeful development of such management mechanism. Actually, this

is

what the Communist P a r t y

calls

f o r , this

is

an objective set by t h e P a r t y decrees t h a t emphasize t h e necessity f o r t h e consistent improvement of management mechan- isms.

The scientists are currently faced with a big problem related to t h e develop- ment of a theory

of

management mechanisms which, while operating in t h e

self-

acting regime, would provide f o r t h e maximum possible labor productivity. This activity has already commenced, but t h e r e is much to do. S o

far

only management mechanisms of t h e cooperative type have been fully accomplished, analyzed theoretically with t h e i r value proved under practical conditions (for details see

Methodoloqy of Projecting

an

Economic Management Mechanism jbr a Regional A g r a r i a n Association, Computing Center, USSR Academy of Sciences, State Com-

mittee of Science and Technics,

1983).

This is t h e simplest type of mechanism, since it operates under conditions in which t h e association of enterprises results not only in a n increased total efficiency, but also in higher benefits f o r any cooperating member whose interests actually coincide. Under such conditions, when projecting a cooperation mechanism t h e only thing to be done

is

t o provide f o r the e x t r a profit results from t h e cooperation t o be correctly distributed between cooperating members.

Quite a different situation a r i s e s when mechanisms of interactions between

enterprises

of

different interdepartmental subordination come into being. The

establishment of interindustry management mechanisms calls f o r efforts to be made

by both economists and lawyers.

A t

present one

of

t h e principal objectives is t o

develop a management mechanism theory t h a t provides f o r correct decisions t o

be

made under similar situations, as

w e l l

as f o r t h e management system t o become

(22)

automatic; such a system i s quite indispensable, since with o u r diversified economy no computers can be effective.

We have seen how modeling problems and t h e use of information facilities bring about t h e necessity

of

studying deep-seated biological and social processes.

While existing principles of building economic and mathematical models

are

suffi- cient f o r t h e elaboration of agricultural land-use systems t o be introduced by agricultural enterprises, good

m o d e l s

of t h e economic mechanisms are necessary to issue recommendations

as

to t h e management decisions to be made.

Like any method of r e s e a r c h and management, mathematical modeling

is

not universal. Not always do

w e

manage t o build adequate

m o d e l s

t h a t can be saturated with t h e necessary information and used f o r practical purposes. Naturally.

models,

^9sw e l l

as t h e methods of t h e i r building and use, are improving constantly, But, as w e can

see,

problems of mathematical modeling a r e related t o some funda- mental problems still to be solved. Therefore, mathematical modeling i s developed in combination with traditional methods of r e s e a r c h and management. This

is

attained through t h e development of a

special

software system t h a t provides f o r a

"man-computer " dialogue.

A

computer can perform all t h e routine calculations much

faster

and with g r e a t e r precision, tracing the logic chains of relationships and interdependence.

But not

all

t h e relationships can be formalized and expressed mathematically.

Therefore a direction providing f o r t h e optimum combinations of a r e s e a r c h e r ' s intuition and experience with t h e capacity of a computer t o process information

is

promising.

There

are

numerous technical facilities enabling t h e "man-computer" dialo- gue. They include various graphic plotters, drawing facilities and, most important, various displays providing

for

information t o be given t o a r e s e a r c h e r in a visual form. With t h e use

of

t h e above

facilities

a r e s e a r c h e r is able t o carry on a dialo- gue with t h e machine, obtaining answers in a visual form, and then making adjust- ments in t h e

m o d e l

and in t h e input information. Any r e s e a r c h work or management decision-making process

is

always

a

dialogue. With a r e s e a r c h e r conducting an experiment this

is

always a dialogue with nature. An experiment in

itself is a

ques- tion being put t o nature. Having interpreted t h e results obtained - i.e., having received a n answer to t h e question put - a r e s e a r c h e r a s k s a new question and makes another experiment. This

is

t h e process of cognition of t h e unknown. The same thing occurs with t h e manager. Before making

a

decision h e analyzes all pos- sible consequences, thus interrogating his own experience.

The dialogue technical facilities and software permit t h e method of mathemati- cal modeling t o be included in traditional programmes of r e s e a r c h and management-decision preparation. Modern and traditional methods

of

information processing

are

t o be combined and not opposed.

Naturally, this new technology of r e s e a r c h and management i s not going t o become just

a

simple combination of methods of mathematical modeling and tradi- tional methods of r e s e a r c h and decision making. This combination will result in t h e transformation of both model building and traditional methods. Methods of r e s e a r c h and managerial activity a r e to be considered in parallel. One of t h e m o s t important consequences of t h e extensive development of methods of information science and mathematical modeling will be the gradual rapprochement of t h e r e s e a r c h and management activities. In fact, t o make

a

well-founded choice one h a s t o compare t h e alternatives and study t h e consequences

of

t h e decisions being made; this

is

t h e most important element of any investigation.

A l l

t h e possibilities a r e provided f o r by informatics.

The possibilities provided by informatics t o experimental investigations will

(23)

f a v o r considerable changes t o b e made in t h e organization system of t h e experiment, primarily in i t s planning. Both experiments and mathematical models

are to

b e r e g a r d e d

as

elements of t h e cognition process.

Such a comprehensive understanding of t h e importance and principles of informatics and mathematical modeling, a s w e l l

as

t h e i r difficulties and capabili- ties, will help overcome t h e psychological threshold inherent in t h e use of any new technology.

(24)

(25)

TECHNOLOGICAL TRN\TmmTIOhTS LV AGRICULTURE:

RESOURCE LIMITATIONS A N D ENVIROhXEhTTAL CONSEQUEMES

A Status Report on the ITASA Research Program*

1. Genesis

Food problems

--

efficient production or procurement of food and the appropriate distribution of food among members of family and society

-

^are

endemic problems of mankind Yet the nature and dimensions of these problems have been changing over time. As economic systems have developed, specialization has increased; and this has led to increased interdependence of rural and urban areas, of agricultural and nonagricultural sectors and of nations. The importance of public policies in resolving these problems has grown with this growing interdependence of nations, reflected in increasing volumes of food trade, and this requires that the exploration of national policy alternatives be carried out in the context of international trade, aid, and capital flows.

When we began our research in t h e field of food and agriculture in 1976, we started with these objectives:

to evaluate the nature and dimensions of the world food situation

a to identify factors affecting it

to suggest policy alternatives a t national, regional and global levels

-

t o alleviate current food problems and

-

t o prevent food problems in the future

Though we began with an emphasis on policies from a medium term, 5 to 15 years perspective, i t was soon recognized t h a t a long-term perspective is also required for a comprehensive understanding of the Food problems of the world. Policies directed to solving current problems should be consistent with the longer term objectives of having a sustainable productive environment.

*

Paper presented at the International Seminar held at the Stavropol Research Jnstitute of Agriculture, USSR, on "Results of the Development of Mathematical Models for Regional S y s tems of Farm Management".