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„Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful.“

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(1)

„Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are

useful.“

George E.P. Box

(2)

Anteil aller 3.3 Mio Geburtstage in den USA in 1978

(3)
(4)

Anteil der Tage seit 1.1.1900, die auf den 13. des Monats fallen

Fr

(5)

1000 Gruppen mit je 200 Personen:

Wieviele Gewinner pro Gruppe?

(6)

Beispiele – LD50

(Quelle: Wikipedia engl.)

Substanz LD 50 [g / kg] Für Person mit 60 kg

Zucker (1) 29 1.74 kg

Alkohol (1) 7 420 g (~ 3 Liter Wein)

Salz (1) 3 180 g

Paracetamol (1) 2 120 g

Aspirin, Koffein (1) 0.2 12 g (~ 6 Liter Espresso; 24 Aspirin 500)

Nikotin (1) 0.05 3 g

Giftigste Schlange (2) 10^(-5) Pfeilgiftfrosch (3) 10^(-6)

Botox (4) 10^(-9)

(1) = Oral, Ratte; (2) = Subkutan, Ratte; (3) = Subkutan, Mensch; (4) = Versch., Mensch

(7)

Klinische Studien

Giftig ? Max. Dosis?

(8)

Klinische Studien

Grob: Wirksam?

(9)

Klinische Studien

Genau: Wirksam?

Nebeneffekte?

(10)

Klinische Studien

Anfangsdosis: 0.1*LD10

(11)

Anzahl Kriegsausbrüche pro Jahr zwischen 1500 und 1930 A.D.

> 4

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