http://www.ipcc.ch/
AR4
4. IPCC
Assessment Report on
Climate Change
Bericht des IPCC-Vorsitzenden Pachauri bei der Präsentation in Nairobi
Climate Change 2007:
The Physical Science Basis
Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
Presented by
R.K. Pachauri, IPCC Chair and
Bubu Jallow, WG 1 Vice Chair
Nairobi, 6 February 2007
DIRECT OBSERVATIONS OF RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Land surface temperatures are rising faster than SSTs Arctic vs Global annual temperature anomalies (°C) Further Changes in Artic and Frozen Ground
Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought Other changes in Extreme Events
Proportion of heavy rainfalls: increasing in most land areas Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas Drought is increasing most places
Circulation change
North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs Warm nights are increasing; cold nights decreasing Heat waves are increasing: an example
Snow cover and Arctic sea ice are decreasing Glaciers and frozen ground are receding
Some aspects of climate have not been observed to change:
A Paleoclimatic Perspective (23)
Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change (24) Understanding and Attributing Climate Change (33) Projections of Future Changes in Climate (36)
Inhalt Vortrag Pachauri:
Lokal:
Zur Urquelle:
Der neue wissenschaftliche Sachstandsbericht des IPCC
Christian-D. Schönwiese Universität Frankfurt/Main
Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt
(Zwischenstaatlicher Klimabeirat der UN)
Aktueller Bericht von Prof. Schönwiese auf der Frühjahrs-Sitzung des AKE
am 19.+20.4.2007 in Bad Honnef
AKE = Arbeitskreis Energie der Deutschen Physikalischen Gesellschaft (DPG)
1. IPCC: Historischer Rückblick, Aufbau, Zeitplan 2. Treibhausgase und Strahlungsantriebe
3. Bisherige Auswirkungen
- in der Zeitperspektive: Temperatur, Eis
- in der regionalen Perspektive: T, Niederschlag, Starkregen, Dürre - Hurrikane
4. Ursachenzuordnung
5. Szenarien und Modellergebnisse
Der neue wissenschaftliche Sachstandsbericht des IPCC
Christian-D. Schönwiese Universität Frankfurt/Main Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt
(Zwischenstaatlicher Klimabeirat der UN)
Lokal:
Zur Urquelle im AKE-Archiv:
Der neue wissenschaftliche Sachstandsbericht des IPCC
Christian-D. Schönwiese Universität Frankfurt/Main Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelt
(Zwischenstaatlicher Klimabeirat der UN)
Einige highlights für das IZES 2007.0605
Tag der Umwelt
Energie und Klimawandel
WS 2006/07
Dr. rer. nat. Gerhard Luther
Forschungsstelle Zukunftsenergie (FZE ) c/o Technische Physik,
Universität des Saarlandes
Bau E26 , Zimmer 2.03
Telephon: 0049- 0681 - 302-2737;
e-mail: luther.gerhard@vdi.de
luther.gerhard@mx.uni-saarland.de
(auch größere Dateien)homepage mit
Link zur Vorlesung
:http://www.uni-saarland.de/fak7/fze/
Vorlesung: Mittwoch, 15 -17 Uhr,
Bau E26, 2.OG., Seminarraum 2.09
Internetseite vorführen !
bescheidener Hinweis auf meine eigene Vorlesung und das AKE-Archiv :
Das Klima der Erde hat sich geändert:
.311 Temperatur
.311a KlimaIndizes (El Nino, NAO )
.312 Niederschlag .313 Sea level
.314 Gletscher
.315 Arktisches Eis .316 Extreme
.317 Übersicht
„The Earth's climate system has changed, globally and regionally
, with some these changes being attributable to human activities .“
Quelle: IPCC-TAR (2001)
IPCC – TAR (3.Report) , 2001:
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures,
widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.
Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change
Quelle: IPCC-AR4-wg1 , Vortrag Pachauri in Nairobi, 2007-0206
AR4 wird schon deutlicher:
unequivocal = eindeutig
Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time
100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026
Warmest 12 years:
1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000
Period Rate
Years /decade
Quelle: IPCC-AR4-wg1 , Vortrag Pachauri in Nairobi, 2007-0206
Ein Blick in die Stratosphäre
Datenquelle: Angell, 2004
Global gemittelte Temperatur der Stratosphäre (16 - 24 km)
Anomalien 1960-2002 (relativ zu 1958-1977)
und einige explosive Vulkanausbrüche
Trend: - 1,9 °C
BQuelle:
DPG2005_SyKE1.4Schoenwiese_CC-imIndustriezeitalter.ppt
Klimaänderungen: Langfristperspektive
Jahr
(rel. zu 1961-1990)
Unsicherheit
BQuelle: C.D.Schönwiese (2207):“Der neue wissenschaftliche Sachstandsbereicht des IPCC“; AKE2007F-Vortrag , Folie 15
Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the
warmth of the last half century is
unusual in at least the previous 1300 years.
The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago, Eem), reductions in polar ice volume led
to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise .
A Paleoclimatic Perspective
Quelle: IPCC-AR4-wg1 , Vortrag Pachauri in Nairobi, 2007-0206
BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_
TechnicalSummary: Box TS.2, Fig. 1; p.39
NAM
NAO Changes associated
with the positive phase of the NAO and NAM : pressure
winds
precipitation changes.
Warm coloured areas are
warmer than normal Blue areas are
cooler than normal.
Positive phase of NAM and NAO
Vom Abschmelzen erfasstes Gebiet in Grönland, Vergleich 1992 (rosa) und 2005 (rot)
Steffen und Huff, 2005
Der Grönland-Eisschild könnte statt in Jahrtausenden bereits in Jahrhunder- ten abschmelzen. Die Folge wäre ein Meeresspiegelanstieg um 4 - 7 m.
BQuelle: C.D.Schönwiese (2207):“Der neue wissenschaftliche Sachstandsbereicht des IPCC“; AKE2007F- Vortrag
BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary: Fig. TS.18, p.49, [Fig 5.13 ]
Annual averages of the global mean sea level since 1870
r econstructed sea level fields since 1870 (red), tide gauge measurements since 1950 (blue)
and satellite altimetry since 1992 (black).
a
mm
relative to the average for 1961 to 1990
Error bars are 90% confidence intervals.
Vereinfachtes Schema des nordatlant.
Strömungs- systems
Warme oberflächen- nahe Strömung
Kalte Tiefen- strömung
(Quadfasel, 2005; IPCC, 2007)
Es ist sehr unwahrscheinlich, dass sich im
21. Jh. die ozeanische Zirkulation wesent-
lich verändert. Ein möglicher leicht abneh-
mender Wärmetransport durch das Golf-
Nordatlantik-Stromsystem wird durch eine
überlagerte Erwärmung überkompensiert.
2.32
The Identification of a human Influence
on Climate Change
IPCC-AR4-Fig. SPM-2 (2007)
CO
2, CH
4and N
2O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities
Relatively little variation before the industrial era
Human and Natural Drivers of Climate
Change
The atmospheric concentration of CO
2and CH
4in 2005 exceeds by far the natural range of the last 650,000 years CO
2CH
4Attribution
• are observed
changes consistent with
expected responses to forcings
inconsistent with alternative
explanations
Observations
All forcing
Solar+volcanic
Quelle: IPCC-AR4-wg1 , Vortrag Pachauri in Nairobi, 2007-0206
Zum Original:
http://www.ipcc.ch/wg2_pdf/india_pachauri.pdf
UrQuelle: IPCC-AR4-wg2: BQuelle: Michael Düren, Uni Gießen . Energieseminar SS 2007
Schlussfolgerung:
Neueste Version
0. The process and the people
1. Emission of GHG
1970 -2004 AD
2. Future Emissions and how to reduce them What is the potential for reducing emissions?
How to reduce emissions?
Changes in Lifestyle
3. What are the costs
What are the costs in 2030?
There are also co-benefits of mitigation
4. Long-term mitigation and Stabilization levels Long-term mitigation (after 2030)
Stabilization and global mean temperatures
5. Policies to realize mitigation of climate change
6. Sustainable development & climate change mitigation
2. Future Emissions
and how to reduce them
What is the potential for reducing emissions?
How to reduce emissions?
Changes in Lifestyle
Quelle: http://www.ipcc.ch/WG3_press_presentation.pdf
in insulation and appliances.
Renewable energy generally has a positive effect on energy security, employment and on air quality. Given costs relative to other supply options, renewable electricity , which accounted for 18% of the electricity supply in 2005, can have a 30-35% share of the total electricity supply supply in 2030 at carbon prices up to 50 US$/t CO2-eq
Wörtlich zitiert:
Nuclear power Nuclear power
Given costs relative to other supply options, nuclear powe r, which accounted for 16% of the electricity supply in 2005, can have an 18% share of the total
electricity supply in 2030 at carbon prices up to 50 US$/tCO2-eq,
but safety, weapons, proliferation and waste remain as constraints.
AR4wg3 _ SPM p.17+18
Quelle: http://www.ipcc.ch/WG3_press_presentation.pdf
Quelle: http://www.ipcc.ch/WG3_press_presentation.pdf
3. Costs
3. Costs
also:
