reclip:century 2 - regional climate simulations for the Greater Alpine Region till 2100

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reclip:century 2 - regional climate simulations for the Greater Alpine Region till 2100

Wolfgang Loibl¹⁾

, Herbert Formayer

²⁾

, HeimoTruhetz

³⁾

, Wolfgang Schöner

⁴⁾

, Ivonne Anders

⁴⁾

Andreas Gobiet

³⁾

, Georg Heinrich

³⁾

, Awan Naumann Kurshid

³⁾

, Imran Nadeem

²⁾

, Jan Peters-Anders

¹⁾

, Irene Schicker

²⁾

, Martin Suklitsch

³⁾

, Johann Züger

¹⁾

1) AIT - Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH, Wien

2) Institut für Meteorologie, Universität für Bodenkultur, Wien

3) Wegener Zentrum für Klima- und Globalen Wandel, Karl-Franzens-Universität, Graz 4) Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Wien

Project number A760437, funded by Klima & Energiefonds, ACRP – 2nd call) Laufzeit 10/2010 to 9/2012

Corresponding Author: e-mail: wolfgang.loibl@ait.ac.at, http://foresight.ait.ac.at/SE/projects/reclip/

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Content

 Project objective, project team

 reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios

 Some results: scenario comparison

 Data warehouse: results exploration and data download

 Summary

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The project has been carried out by up to 13 team members:

Teams from 4 institutions headed by

AIT Boku-Met

(Wolfgang Loibl, Project Coordination) (Herbert Formayer)

Wegener Center ZAMG

(Heimo Truhetz, (Wolfgang Schöner)

Andreas Gobiet)

Project Partners

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reclip:century: research for climate protection: century climate simulations

1. Ensemble of high resolution regional climate simulations (10x10km) tailored for Austria and the Greater Alpine Region with

2. Validation and uncertainty assessment

3. Additionally 4x4 km simulation tests for Austria for the period 2021-2050

4. Development of a data warehouse for data exporation and downl oad

Project - objective

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Content

 Project objective, project team

 reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios

 Some results: scenario comparison

 Data warehouse: results exploration and data download

 Summary

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Simulation framework - overview

Greeenhouse gas scenarios: IPCC A1B, B1, A2

MM5

 2 nesting steps

 2 Domains: D1:grid spacing 30 km (blue box), D2: 10 km (green box)

 Time steps: D1: 30 sec, D2: 10 sec

Regional models (storage of 1h data):

COSMO CLM (CCLM)

 2 nestig steps

 2 Domains: D1: grid spacing 50 km (red box), D2: 10 km (green box)

 Time steps: D1: 360 sec, D2: 80 sec

GCM - forcing (input data in 6h intervals):



ECHAM5: 180km resolution



HadCM3: 250km resolution



ERA40: 120km resolution (hindcast runs)

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reclip:century ensemble

GCM – RCM – GHG-scenario combinations

finally 10 model runs 10x10 km, 2 hindcast runs 40 yrs

3 control runs 40 yrs 5 scenario runs 100 yrs

1 scenario run 4x4km 30 yrs, statistical downscaling 1x1km….

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Content

 Project objective, project team

 reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios

 Some results: scenario comparison

 Data warehouse: results exploration and data download

 Summary

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Scenario comparison – temperature

Climate change signals

 Annual and winter/summer mean temperature difference 2021/2050 & 2071/2100 vs.1971/2000

ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B HadCM3/CCLM/A1B

 Seasonal temperature difference variation during the century

ECHAM5/CCLM/B1, ECHAM5/CCLM/A2

 Local CC temperature signals –the Vienna area

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HADCM3/CCLM/A1B: annual temperature increase in Austria - till 2050: ca. +2 K, till 2100 +3.5-4 K

ECHAM5(CCLM(A1B: annual temperature increase in Austria - till 2050: ca. +1,5 -1,8 K, till 2100 + ,5-4 K

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HADCM3/CCLM/A1B: temperature increase in Austria 2100: winter +2,5-3,5 K, summer + 3,5 - 5 K ECHAM5(CCLM(A1B: temperature increase in Austria 2100: winter + 2,5 -4 K, summer + 3,5 - 5 K

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30 year moving seasonal temperature means till 2100

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ECHAM5/CCLM/B1: high increase: peaks in summer and autumn ca. +3K (spring, winter +2K) ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B: highest increase in summer +4,2 K, In autumn: +4 K (spring, winter +2,8-3,5 K) HADCM3/CCLM/A1B: highest increase in autumn +4,6 K, In summer: +4,3 K (spring, winter +2,6 - 3 K) ECHAM5/CCLM/A2: highest increase in summer +5 K, autumn +4,6 K (spring, winter +3,2 – 3,7 K)

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DIF_2021_HADC

M3 DIF_2021_ECHA

M5 DIF_2071_HADC

M3 DIF_2071_ECHA M5

1,94 1,48 3,73 3,59

Variation of hourly temperature differences: Vienna area during 30y periods

HADCM3/A1B versus ECHAM5/A1B, differences of hourly averages 1971/2000 vs. 2071/2100

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Temperature change in heat episodes – Vienna area

Diurnal temperature: daily averages 16.7.-15.8. - 1971/2100 – 2021/2050 – 2071/2100

Reference: Vienna Opera, averaged observations of the 110 peak temp. days 1980-2010

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Scenario comparison – precipitation

Climate change signals

 Annual and winter/summer mean precipitation change 2021/2050 & 2071/2100 vs.1971/2000



ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B HadCM3/CCLM/A1B

 Seasonal variation of precipitation change 2021/2100 -1971/2000

ECHAM5/CCLM/B1, ECHAM5/CCLM/A2

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HADCM3/CCLM/A1B: annual precipitation change in Austria till 2050: -5 to +5%, till 2100: -15 to 0%

ECHAM5(CCLM(A1B: annual precipitation change in Austria till 2050: +0 to +10%, till 2100: -15 to +5%

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HADCM3/CCLM/A1B: precipitation change in Austria 2100: winter: 0 to +20%, summer: -15 to 0%

ECHAM5(CCLM(A1B: precipitation change in Austria 2100: winter 5 to +20%, summer: -10 to 0%

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30year moving seasonal precipitation averages till 2100

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ECHAM5/CCLM/B1: high decrease: summer -25%, autumn -10%, winter, spring - little decrease ECHAM5/CCLM/A1B: highest decrease in summer: -38%, autumn -12%, increase in winter +8%

HADCM3/CCLM/A1B: highest decrease in summer: -33%, autumn, spring little decrease, winter +10%

ECHAM5/CCLM/A2: highest decrease in summer: -40%, autumn -10%, winter, spring - little decrease

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Comparison of simulation results with different resolutions: 10x10km versus 4x4 km

Annual temperature differences (in ° C)

Annual precipitation differences (in %)

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Comparison of simulation results with different resolutions:

10x10km versus 4x4 km: terrain matters

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Content

 Project objective, project team

 reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios

 Some results: scenario comparison

 Data warehouse: results exploration and data download

 Summary

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Reclip:century data warehouse

Exploration and download of yearly, monthly, daily data

Link: http://reclip.ait.ac.at/reclip_century

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Data exploration

Select item:



Temperature or precipitation,



scenario (GCM/RCM/GHG)

Data to be explored:

Annual means and annual sums

temperature, total precipitation: all periods

Monthly means and monthly sums temperature, total precipitation:: all periods

Daily means and sums

temperature, total precipitation:: all periods

Extreme events annual numbers frost days, summer days, heatdays, RR20-days (all periods)

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Data exploration

Single image:

• Select time. year, month, day

Animation:

• Select start time: first frame

• Select end time: last frame

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Data exploration

Various features:

• select transparency

• modify default colour scal

• modify visible range

• zoom and pan

• create screen shots,

• retrieve single values

• draw section profiles

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Data download

Download of yearly, monthly, daily data as netCDF- files

Same as for data exploration except daily data:

1991/2000, 2041/2050. (2 decades for download))

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Content

 Project objective, project team

 reclip:century ensemble: models, data, GHG-scenarios

 Some results: scenario comparison

 Data warehouse: results exploration and data download

 Summary

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Summary – project outcomes:



A set of 10x10km regional climate simulations for selected scenarios for 1970 to 2100 provided for the Alpine Region



Feasibility study for 4x4km resolution for 30 years (2021-2050) for Austria

 Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty assessment (not shown here)



Data warehouse established for

 data exploration – by visualisation of single images and animations

 data download



Broad range of output data

 Hourly data, monthly data, seasonal data, yearly data

 for single years, for averages of decades and for 30 year episodes

CC signal overview:

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Winter

Spring

Temperature 1971/2000 - 2071/2100 Increase in °C (B1/2x A1B/A2)

Precipitation 1971/2000 - 2071/2100 Change in % (B1/2x A1B/A2)

Seasonal trends by regions till 2100 based on 4 scenarios: B1/2xA1B/A2

2,5/3,8/4,4

2,4/2,5/3,3

2,4/2,4/3,3 2,4/3,8/4,3 2,2/3,4/4

2,6/2,8/3,6

2,2/3,4/4,1

2,6/2,9/3,7 2,1/3,2/3,9

2,6/3/3,9

2,2/3,2/3,9

2,5/3,1/3,9

2,3/3,5/4,1

2,6/2,9/3,6

-<-/+10%/<-

<-/+>/<-

<-/+10/-12%

<-/+>/<-

<-/+>/+>

<-/+>/<-

<-/=/<-

=/+>/+>

=/+>/-10%

=/+10%/=

=/+>/-10%

=/+>/+>

<-/<-/-12%

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Summer

Autumn

Temperature 1971/2000 - 2071/2100 Increase in °C (B1, 2x A1B, A2)

Precipitation 1971/2000 - 2071/2100 Change in % (B1,2x A1B;A2)

Seasonal trends by regions till 2100 based on scenarios:B1,2xA1B,A2

3/4,3/4,6 2,3/3,8/4,4

3,2/4,4/4,6 2,6/4,6/4,7 2,5/4,1/4,6

3,1/4,4/4,6

2,5/4,2/4,8

3,1/4,3/4,6 2,6/3/3,9

2,6/3/3,9

3,3/4,5/4,8

3/4,6/5 2,9/4,0/5

3,1/4,0/4,7

-</-20/-30%

<-/0/+>

-15/-25/-30%

<-/-12%/<- -12/-20/-25%

<-/-10%/<-

<-/-12%/<- +15/-20/-30%

<- /-15/-25%

-15/-22/-25%

-15/-25/-30%

<-/-20/-25% <-/-12%/+10%

-12/-28/-30%

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Thank you for your attention !

and try out: http://reclip.ait.ac.at/reclip_century

Contact: wolfgang.loibl@ait.ac.at

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