I l A S A C O L L A B O R A T I V E PROCEEDINGS SERIES
LIQUEFIED ENERGY GASES FACILITY SITINGm
INTERNATIONA~
COMPARISONS
IIASA COLLABORATIVE PROCEEDIIVGS SERIES
LARGE-SCALE LINEAR PROGRAMMING Proceedings of an IIASA Workshop, 2-6 June 1980 G.B. Dantzig, M.A.H. Dempster, and M.J. Kallio, Editors THE SHINKANSEN PROGRAM: Transportation, Railway, Environmental, Regional, and National Development Issues A. Straszak, Editor
HUMAN SETTLEMENT SYSTEMS: Spatial Patterns and Trends Selected Papers from an IlASA Conference on the Analysis of Human Settlement Systems
T. Kawashima and P. Korcelli, Editors RISK: A Seminar Series
H. Kunreuther, Editor
THE OPERATION OF MULTIPLE RESERVOIR SYSTEMS Proceedings of an International Workshop, Jodlowy Dwor, Poland, 28 May-1 June 1979
Z. Kaczmarek and J. Kindler, Editors
NONPOINT NITRATE POLLUTION OF MUNICIPAL WATER SUPPLY SOURCES: lssues of Analysis and Control
Proceedings of an IIASA Task Force Meeting, 10-12 February 1981 K.-H. Zwirnmann, Editor
MODELING AGRICULTURAL-ENVI RONMENTAL PROCESSES IN CROP PRODUCTION
Proceedings of an I IASA Task Force Meeting, 2-4 June 1980 G. Golubev and I. Shvytov, Editors
LIQUEFIED ENERGY GASES FACILITY SITING:
International Comparisons
Howard Kunreuther, Joanne Linnerooth, and Rhonda Starnes, Editors
LIQUEFIED ENERGY GASES FACILITY SITINGm
~NTERNAT~ONA~
COMPARISONS
Howard Kunreuther, Joanne Linnerooth, and Rhonda Starnes
Editors
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS Laxenburg, Austria
1982
The lnternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is a nongovernmental, multidisciplinary, inter- national research institution whose goal is to bring together scientists from around the world t o work on problems of common interest.
I l A S A pursues this goal, not only by pursuing a research program at the lnstitute i n collaboration w i t h many other institutions, but also by holding a wide variety of scientific and technical meetings. Often the interest i n these meetings extends beyond the concerns o f the participants, and proceedings are issued. Carefully edited and reviewed proceedings occasionally appear i n the lnternational Series on Applied Systems Analysis (published by John Wiley and Sons Limited, Chichester, England); edited proceedings appear i n the IIASA Proceedings Series (published b y Pergamon Press Limited, Oxford, England) and elsewhere.
When relatively quick publication isdesired, unedited and only lightly reviewed proceedings reproduced from manuscriptsprovided b y the authors of the papers appear i n this l l A S A Collaborative Proceedings Series. Volumes in this series are available from the Institute at moderate cost.
lnternational Standard Book Number 3-7045-0041-0
Volumes in the IlASA Collaborative Proceedings Series contain papers offered at I IASA professional meetings, and are designed t o be issued promptly, with a minimum of editing and review.
The views or opinions expressed in this volume do not necessarily represent those of the lnstitute or the National Member Organizations that support it.
Copyright @1982 Ilnternational lnstitute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
PREFACE
It is always pleasant t o claim authorship of an idea that results in a successful pro- duct. I t isdoubly sowhen the innovation is an event that borders on the unique. In today's contentious world, a frequent occurrence in many countries and in many societies is the opposition of the individual t o the general good.
The subject of the week long meeting, whose transcribed dialogues and debates are presented below, was just such instances deriving from technological development. In examining, in a comparative international context, the formal and informal procedures for resolving the problems of the siting of large industrial plants (in this case those treating liquefied energy gases), i t became apparent that much would be learned from a structured confrontation of the views and ideas of the several interested parties in a research forum.
I f this could be achieved in a neutral, disinterested setting then the hypotheses of the l IASA research team could be tested before people who had taken active part in the social and administrative decision making.
Thus descriptive and interpretive case studies and models developed by the IlASA team after visits and interviews in the countries studied were used as the bases of the dis- cussion and debate that took place in plenary sessions a t Schloss Laxenburg. Civil servants from France, engineers and economists from the USSR, environmentalist leaders from the UK, the US, and the Netherlands, industrialists from the FRG, and local government offi- cials, safety assessors, and social risk theorists from these countries together with IlASA staff may seem an unlikely, cumbersome, and even volatile mixture, but in the event i t was exactly this amalgam of conflicting interest and opinion that produced a remarkably sharp and useful debate.
From i t the team drew new insights, found new paths to explore, perceived new, simplified models of the procedures, formed a more cohesive "team view" of the world, and cemented useful and happy friendships with the hand picked participants.
The participants, each guided by interview and correspondence before the meeting into the development during the discussions of some particular aspect of the problem, gained further appreciation of the contrary and complementary views, recognized more clearly the universality of the problem and the particularity of some of their own national cases and found also that this academic interaction with real problems (which will lead to the open literature) held interest and hope for them. One participant hoped that "his soul would be saved" a t this meeting, if policy implementation and analysis could be coupled.
This short phrase covers much more than the above results indicate as achievements, but they are a move along the Damascene road leading technology t o society.
1 hope you will enjoy and profit from reading the edited proceedings presented here.
CRAIG SINCLAI R Brussels December 1981
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The Task Force Meeting reported in this volume was in many ways a special event at I IASA. Most of the participants, as well as I IASA scientists who chose t o participate, agreed that a sense of excitement was generated that i s seldom present at "scientific" meetings.
These feelings can be attributed t o the personalities and composition of the group, which included individuals representing all sides of the LEG siting debate from five countries.
We would like t o thank all of those individuals in the Task Force for their energy and active participation during the entire five days.
The person primarily responsible for selecting the participants for this meeting was Craig Sinclair who was assisted by David Bull, John Lathrop, and Joanne Linnerooth.
Rhonda Starnes coordinated the arrangements for the Task Force Meeting and was assisted by No61 Blackwell. R. Starnes transcribed the many hours of discussion between the par- ticipants, and retyped and organized the volume for publication. Howard Kunreuther and Joanne Linnerooth edited these transcribed discussions. Meredith Golden was responsible for the organization of the sections and the introductory comments.
The Task Force Meeting was made possible through financial support from the Bundesministerium fiir Forschung und Technologie (BMFT), FRG, under contract no.
321175911RGB 8001. Werner Salz and Hans Seipel were responsible for the program of which this study was a part. We would also like to thank Alec Lee, Chairman of Manage- ment and Technology (MMT), Andrzej Wierzbicki, Chairman of Systems and Decision Sciences (SDS), Roger Levien, former Director of IIASA, and C.S. Holling, Director of IIASA, who have encouraged the Risk Group in its efforts.
HOWARD KUNREUTHER JOANNE LINNEROOTH RHONDA STARNES
CONTENTS
I. INTRODUCTION Background
Joanne Linnerooth and Meredith Golden Introductory Statements
II. CONCEPTUAL ISSUES AND SELECTED LEG CASE STUDIES Societal Decision Making for Low Probability Events: Descriptive and Prescriptive Aspects
Howard Kunreuther Discussion Comments
Information Paper: LNG Siting in the Netherlands Mich iel Sch warz
Planning for Hazard: An Appraisal of Safety Considerations for the Fife Gas Plant
S. M . Macgill
A Short History of the California LNG Terminal Joanne Linnerooth
Discussion Comments Ill. PARTY PERSPECTIVES
A. Environmental and Citizen Groups Societal l nterest
Lucas Reijnders
Discussion Comments A Local View of Terminal Siting P.D. Mehta
Discussion Comments B. Industry
Construction of an Experimental-Commercial Complex for Natural Gas Liquefaction in Yerevan
Yu.S. Oseredko
Discussion Comments
Economic Problems of Improving Liquefied Gas Production and Main Line Transportation
Yu.1. Maksimov
Discussion Comments C. Governmental Regulatory Agencies
The Regulator's View of Terminal Siting Niall G. Campbell
Discussion Comments
Siting an L.N.G. Facility in California: The Regulatory F ramework and the Factors Involved in the Decision Making Process
Randolph W. Deutsch Discussion Comments
The Role of Technical Analysis in California Energy Facility Siting Decisions
William R. Ahern Presentation
Discussion Comments
Future Directions for Siting Decisions Anthony C. Barrel1
Discussion Comments IV. ANALYSES I N THE SITING PROCESS
Siting Energy Facilities Using Decision Analysis Ralph L. Keeney
Discussion Comments
The Siting Problem of Liquefied Energy Gases: Solution or Resolution?
Jerry R. Ravetz Presentation
Discussion Comments
The Role of Risk Assessment in Facility Siting: An Example from California John W. Lathrop
Discussion Comments
The Energy Policy Situation and LEG Siting in the Netherlands Jaap J. Schwarz
Discussion Comments Presentation by Michael Thompson
Discussion Comments
