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Unit 13: Risk Assessment of Earthquakes Case study Barcelona

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Unit 13: Risk Assessment of Earthquakes Case study Barcelona

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

(2)

Earthquakes

Earthquakes are related to hazardous geological processes

It is very difficult to predict such events

The events can be statistically described

Sensitive regions, zones can be identified

Characterised by location of origin and probabilities of exceedance rates

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

(3)

Earthquakes

Earthquakes are related to hazardous geological processes

It is very difficult to predict such events

The events can be statistically described

Sensitive regions, zones can be identified

Characterised by location of origin and probabilities of exceedance rates

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

(4)

Consequences of earthquakes

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

(5)

Consequences of earthquakes

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

(6)

Seismic extremes

Richter scale is frequently applied to characterise the intensity of earth quakes. It is based on the maximum amplitude of an event

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

M

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Seismic extremes

Richter scale is frequently applied to characterise the intensity of earth quakes. It is based on the maximum amplitude of an event

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

M

(8)

Modeling earthquake frequency

Peak over threshold

Considering also the clustering of earthquakes

Spectral analysis

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Modeling earthquake frequency

Peak over threshold

Considering also the clustering of earthquakes

Spectral analysis

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Earthquakes in Barcelona

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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General approach

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Methodology

Seismis zones are identified

For each zone statistical analysis is applied to estimate the magnitude and frequency of exceedances

To estimate the exposure distance (and attenuation) from the endangered area have to be identified

Intensities

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

(13)

Model

Event has magnitude M following a log NV

Intensity A at distance R0

 is standard NV with median MED and lna is the standard deviation of the logarithm of a

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Application

City of Barcelona (Marulanda, M.C. et al. (2013) Nat.

Hazards

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Application

City of Barcelona (Marulanda, M.C. et al. (2013) Nat.

Hazards

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Exposure characterisation

The exposure is mainly related to the infrastructure components or to the exposed population that can be affected by a particular event.

Number of objects

Classification of objects

Damage potential of objects

Establishing a loss function (relating intensity with consequences)

Identification of # of humans exposed to an event

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Impact estimation

Regional classification

Object identification

Object classification

Economic value of individual classes

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Damage function (Potential)

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Damage function (Potential)

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Economic assessment

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Economic assessment

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Spatial distribution of expected losses

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Spatial distribution of expected losses

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Risk for humans

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

(25)

Risk for humans

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

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Summary

The probability of intensity of the hazardous event has been described by a Log NV

An attenuation model has been used to link origin of the hazard with the impact area

Impact area has been divided into subunits

Objects in subunits have been identified

Objects in subunits have been classified

Value of objects has been estimated

Risk has been estimated

# of fatalities has been estimated

Earthquake risk assessment Unit 13 H.P. Nachtnebel

Referenzen

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