First-Order Effects of a Nuclear Moratorium in Central Europe

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W O R K I N G P A P E R

Mt-Order Effects ot a Nuclear Moratorium in Central Europe

S a b i n e M e s s n e r M a n f r e d S t r u b e g g e r

December

1 986 W - 8 6 - 8 0

l n t e r n a t ~ o n a l l n s t ~ t u t e for Appl~ed Systems Analysts

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NOT FOR QUOTATION

WITHOUT THE PERMISSION OF THE AUTHORS

First-Order Et'fects of

a

Nuclear Moratorium

in

Central Europe

S a b i n e Messner Manfred S t r u b e g g e r

December

1986 WP-86-80

Working P a p e r s are interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r Applied Systems Analysis a n d h a v e r e c e i v e d only limited review. Views o r opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o not n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t t h o s e of t h e Institute or of i t s National Member Organizations.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 L a x e n b u r g , Austria

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Foreword

Following t h e accident at t h e Chernobyl n u c l e a r reactor in s p r i n g 1986, t h e long-standing d e b a t e on s a f e t y and t h e n u c l e a r power cycle was revived. One of t h e questions t h a t arose was, what would t h e r e l a t i v e economic and o t h e r consequences of a discontinuation of n u c l e a r programs amount to.

Since IIASA h a s a long tradition in e n e r g y modeling, i t c a n use i t s accumulated e x p e r t i s e and existing m o d e l s

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depicting t h e Central European e n e r g y supply sys- t e m

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^tod e r i v e such estimates.

The r e s u l t s resemble those of m o s t of t h e o t h e r modeling g r o u p s t h a t undertook similar e f f o r t s f o r individual countries. The main d i f f e r e n c e between t h e r e s u l t s of t h e IIASA investigation and o t h e r s i s t h a t t h i s study suggests t h a t natural g a s , and not coal, could well be t h e m o s t important fuel in filling t h e g a p t h a t a n u c l e a r phase-out s t r a t e g y would leave in t h e e n e r g y supply system of Central Eu- r o p e .

The a u t h o r s thank L. Hordijk f o r his c a r e f u l review of t h i s p a p e r and h i s valuable comments.

T.H. Lee D i r e c t o r

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Contents

Background

C u r r e n t S t a t u s of N u c l e a r Power in E u r o p e The Approach

The E n e r g y Supply Model

The Energy-Specific Consequences Import Dependence and T r a d e Balance

Consequences for t h e Environmental S i t u a t i o n E n e r g y P r i c e s a n d Investments of t h e E n e r g y S e c t o r N u c l e a r P h a s e Out and Low Emissions

A N u c l e a r Moratorium B r o a d e r Aspects Conclusions

Notes

Bibliography

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kt-Order meets of

a Nuclear

Moratorium in

Central Europe

Sabine Messner and Muqj'red Strubegger

Background

The growing public opposition to t h e use of n u c l e a r power in Western E u r o p e and a generally h i g h e r public i n t e r e s t in energy-related m a t t e r s are stimulating a reevaluation of f u t u r e options in e n e r g y supply. The need f o r such a n undertaking i s s t r e s s e d by t h e f a c t t h a t today

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in c o n t r a s t to t h e 1970s

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political p a r t i e s are a l s o taking a s t r o n g position p r o or c o n t r a n u c l e a r power. Whereas during t h e nuclear d e b a t e at t h e end of t h e 1970s, conflict arose between policymakers from a l l p a r t i e s and t h e public, today t h e discussion o c c u r s between t h e p a r t i e s

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including t h e e l e c t o r a t e . This may easily lead t o a situation in which i t i s extremely difficult to find a common basis f o r decisions in e n e r g y planning or even one in which poli- c i e s are changed in e a c h p e r i o d between elections.

In t h e p r e s e n t h e a t e d political climate, such a common basis cannot b e developed during discussions between s u p p o r t e r s and opponents of n u c l e a r power

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i t c a n only b e built upon a sound scientific base, which h a s to b e t r u s t e d by all p a r t i e s . However, t h i s is a difficult t a s k . In t h e Federal Republic of Germany, s u c h an undertaking w a s launched in 1979, when two consecutive Parliamentary Enquetes on t h e Future Uses of Nuclear Power w e r e initiated. However, this ef- f o r t was discontinued a f t e r a change in t h e composition of parliamentary power.

Since t h e mid-1980s t h e situation h a s changed drastically. After t h e n u c l e a r a c c i d e n t at Chernobyl in t h e USSR, public c o n c e r n a b o u t and r e s i s t a n c e against n u c l e a r e n e r g y rose considerably. A preliminary decision w a s made not to p u t on- line t h e f a s t b r e e d e r reactor at Kalkar, FRG. A final decision on t h a t s u b j e c t will c e r t a i n l y a f f e c t plans concerning t h e nuclear r e p r o c e s s i n g plant at Wackersdorf, FRG. If t h e s e t w o p r o j e c t s d o not g o on-line in t h e n e a r f u t u r e , a decision similar to t h a t in Sweden

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a n u c l e a r p h a s e o u t

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is conceivable in t h e FRG.

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In various European c o u n t r i e s t h e situation d i f f e r s substantially from t h a t in t h e FRG. In some c o u n t r i e s , like F r a n c e , discussions ended s h o r t l y a f t e r a n initial public opposition, while in t h e UK public r e s i s t a n c e seems to have l i t t l e e f f e c t . Others, like Austria and Sweden, decided to ban t h e use or construction of nuclear power plants.

Decisions o n t h e f u t u r e utilization of n u c l e a r power will c e r t a i n l y b e taken o n a national basis, b u t t h e y c a n easily lead to political dissent

-

^asr e c e n t l y s e e n in t h e conflict between Austria and Bavaria, FRG, concerning t h e planned nuclear r e p r o c e s s i n g plant at Wackersdorf, and also in t h a t between t h e S a a r l a n d , FRG, and France because of t h e new n u c l e a r power station Cattenom 1.

C u r r e n t S t a t u a of N u c l e a r Pwer in E u r o p e

This r e p o r t focuses on t h e f i r s t - o r d e r e f f e c t s of a discontinuation of t h e use of nu- c l e a r e n e r g y in C e n t r a l Europe. The region Central Europe comprises Austria, Belgium, Denmark, F r a n c e , FRG, Ireland, Luxembourg, t h e Netherlands, Switzer- land, a n d t h e UK. I t i s a geographically and economically homogeneous r e g i o n with relatively w e l l developed economies, b u t varying utilization of n u c l e a r e n e r g y . Table 1 shows e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n from nuclear reactors i n t h e s e c o u n t r i e s , to- g e t h e r with t h e total e l e c t r i c i t y generation f o r 1980 and 1985. F r a n c e h a s a n ex- t r e m e position: in 1985 almost 65% of i t s e l e c t r i c i t y w a s g e n e r a t e d from n u c l e a r e n e r g y , and between 1980 and 1985 t h e growth rate of t h i s e n e r g y s o u r c e in F r a n c e w a s 28% p e r y e a r . Currently, a total of 115 reactors are being o p e r a t e d in Central Europe, 43 of them i n France. Other c o u n t r i e s with l a r g e n u c l e a r s h a r e s are Belgium, Switzerland, t h e FRG, a n d t h e UK.

Up to 1990 F r a n c e plans to i n c r e a s e i t s n u c l e a r capacity drastically, from 37.5 GW in 1985 to 58.5 GW in 1990

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a n i n c r e a s e of 2 1 GW ( o r 56%), while all t h e o t h e r West European nations t o g e t h e r will add 8 GW [I]. The second l a r g e s t in- c r e a s e i s c u r r e n t l y f o r e s e e n f o r t h e FRG with 6.5 GW; t h e remaining 1.5 GW are to b e built in t h e UK. Currently, only F r a n c e h a s reactors u n d e r construction, which would a d d a n o t h e r 4 GW a f t e r 1990.

T h e A p p r o a c h

This s h o r t analysis i s based on a model developed f o r t h e International Gas Study at t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); a n outline of t h e study i s given in Nakicenovic and S t r u b e g g e r (1984), and preliminary r e s u l t s are d e s c r i b e d briefly in Messner et al. (1986). The main goal of t h a t study w a s to

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Table 1: Electricity production f r o m n u c l e a r power s t a t i o n s in Central Europe, 1980 and 1985, in TWh and s h a r e (%) of t o t a l e l e c t r i c i t y generation (IAEA, 1986).

analyze t h e possibilities of using m o r e n a t u r a l g a s in Europe, for which e n e r g y models f o r five n e t gas-importing regions [Z] were developed. The study focused on t h e balanced development of n a t u r a l g a s imports from various exporting regions [3] to t h o s e n e t importers. In o r d e r to obtain a r e a l i s t i c p i c t u r e , t h e study c o v e r e d a l l e n e r g y c a r r i e r s a n d d e a l t with the complete e n e r g y system, from ex- t r a c t i o n t o t h e various end-uses of e n e r g y f o r domestic, industrial, and t r a n s p o r -

.

tation applications. Thus, one of t h e competing e n e r g y s o u r c e s i s e l e c t r i c i t y produced from n u c l e a r power plants. This allowed t h e immediate use of t h e models to check t h e implications of a changed n u c l e a r s t r a t e g y o n t h e r e s t r u c t u r i n g of t h e e n e r g y supply system.

Austria Belgium Denmark F r a n c e FRG Ireland Luxembourg Netherlands Switzerland UK

TOTAL

The basis of o u r investigations w a s t h e assumption t h a t n o new n u c l e a r power plants will b e built a f t e r 1990 in C e n t r a l Europe, but t h a t t h e existing ones will b e used f o r t h e i r planned life times of 25 y e a r s . The model r e s u l t s , however, cannot b e i n t e r p r e t e d as s u c h . The comparative e f f e c t s of d i f f e r e n t measures have to b e evaluated in comparison with a R e f e r e n c e Case (RC), i n which n u c l e a r power plants are built beyond 1990.

The investigations performed with t h i s purely energy-related and regionally a g g r e g a t e d model cannot s h e d much light on t h e economic problems faced by t h e d i f f e r e n t nations. However, w e c a n examine t h e following a s p e c t s of a discontinuation of n u c l e a r e n e r g y :

1980

TWh S h a r e (Z)

0.0 0.0

12.5 23.4

0.0 0.0

61.3 23.7

43.7 11.9

0.0 0.0

4.2 6.5

14.4 29.1

37.0 13 .O 173.07 14.91

(1) What a r e t h e energy-specific consequences?

1985

TWh S h a r e (%)

0.0 0.0

32.4 59.8

0.0 0.0

213.1 64.8

119.8 31.2

0 .O 0.0

0.0 0.0

3.7 6.1

21.3 39.8

53.8 19.3

444.1 37.3

(2) What are t h e consequences on import dependence and t r a d e balance?

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(3) What are t h e consequences f o r emissions without c o n s i d e r a t i o n of s t r o n g e r m e a s u r e s c o n c e r n i n g emissions s t a n d a r d s , a n d what would t h e c o n s e q u e n c e s b e if more s t r i n g e n t m e a s u r e s w e r e e n f o r c e d ?

(4) What e f f e c t s o n t h e economy could c h a n g e s in e n e r g y p r i c e s a n d in inuest- ments from t h e e n e r g y sector h a v e ?

The

Energy Supply Hodel

The model developed f o r t h e IIASA I n t e r n a t i o n a l Gas Study f o r C e n t r a l E u r o p e util- i z e s MESSAGE I1 (Messner, 1984; S t r u b e g g e r , 1984), a dynamic l i n e a r programming model. The a p p l i c a t i o n f o r C e n t r a l E u r o p e includes 178 technologies, r e p r e s e n t i n g e x t r a c t i o n , c e n t r a l c o n v e r s i o n , t r a n s p o r t a n d d i s t r i b u t i o n , a n d utilization of e n e r - gy. I t c o v e r s t h e time h o r i z o n from 1980 to 2030, with 1980 being s t r i c t l y a n d 1 9 8 5 loosely c a l i b r a t e d with t h e a c t u a l situation.

The e n e r g y s o u r c e s c o n s i d e r e d are lignite, h a r d c o a l , c r u d e oil, n a t u r a l g a s (gaseous or liquefied as LNG), hydropower, n u c l e a r e n e r g y , waste i n c i n e r a t i o n a n d i n d u s t r i a l wastes, on-site solar systems, a n d c o n s e r v a t i o n investments. S e c o n d a r y e n e r g y c a r r i e r s are lignite, brown c o a l b r i q u e t t e s , h a r d c o a l , c o k e , f u e l o i l , g a s oil, gasoline, n a t u r a l g a s , c o m p r e s s e d n a t u r a l g a s (CNG), e l e c t r i c i t y , d i s t r i c t h e a t , a n d methanol in motor f u e l s (up to 10%). Various t y p e s of power plants, including c o g e n e r a t i o n of e l e c t r i c i t y a n d d i s t r i c t h e a t in pass-out or b a c k - p r e s s u r e t u r - bines, are r e p r e s e n t e d . The a n n u a l a n d daily load v a r i a t i o n s a n d s t o r a g e r e q u i r e - ments of e l e c t r i c i t y , d i s t r i c t h e a t , a n d n a t u r a l g a s are a c c o u n t e d f o r by r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e demand load c u r v e s as s t e p functions with varying power r e q u i r e - ments.

The model c a l c u l a t e s

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f o r t h e defined o b j e c t i v e function

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t h e optimal e n e r - g y supply development o v e r t h e time horizon, taking i n t o a c c o u n t t e c h n i c a l , economic, a n d ecological f e a t u r e s , s u c h as availability, t e c h n i c a l p l a n t lifes, cffi- c i e n c i e s , investment c o s t s , a n d SO2 a n d NO, emissions, as well as additional con- s t r a i n t s imposed o n t h e system, s u c h as t h o s e o n t h e e x t r a c t i o n of domestic c o a l (reflecting political c o n s i d e r a t i o n s ) or t h e possibility of introducing d i s t r i c t h e a t g r i d s (with c o s t s depending o n t h e e n e r g y densities a n d building s t r u c t u r e s in question). The o b j e c t i v e function contains, f o r t h i s a p p l i c a t i o n , a mixture of economic a n d ecological o b j e c t i v e s t h a t r e f l e c t economic r e a l i t i e s a n d t h e growing c o n c e r n a b o u t t h e e f f e c t s of pollutant emissions.

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The

Energy-Specific Conmequences

Analysis of t h e possible consequences of a discontinuation of nuclear power is based on t h e RC of t h e IIASA Gas Study, which s e r v e s as a r e f e r e n c e to evaluate t h e r e s u l t s of t h e Nuclear Phase-Out Case (NPC). The basic assumptions f o r t h e RC are a slight decline in final e n e r g y consumption (0.26X p e r y e a r ) up to t h e y e a r 2000 and stabilization t h e r e a f t e r . The world market p r i c e of oil i s assumed to in- crease from t h e p r e s e n t 15$/bbl with a n annual a v e r a g e rate of 2X p e r y e a r (in r e a l terms). In t h e following e n e r g y analysis w e focus on t h e development of t h e primary e n e r g y mix and t h e differences in t h e fuels used f o r e l e c t r i c i t y production.

P r i m a r y E n e r g y SzLppLy

F o r a comparison of e n e r g y supply in t h e RC and t h e NPC, w e c h o s e t h e y e a r s 1990, 2000, a n d 2030 to show t h e s h o r t , medium, and long-term consequences. The s t r u c - t u r e of primary e n e r g y supply will remain essentially unchanged in 1990 [4] (see Table 2).

Table 2: S o u r c e s of primary e n e r g y in Central E u r o p e , RC and NPC. 1990 to

2030, in s h a r e s (X); t h e t o t a l i s given in EJ.

F o r t h e NPC, in 2000 n u c l e a r e n e r g y will b e reduced by one t h i r d compared with t h e RC, t h e e f f e c t being mainly in t h e use of gas. Only a f t e r 2000 will coal consumption start to grow significantly, while t h e use of oil will b e less than 10%

higher. The r e a c t i o n to a phase o u t of nuclear e n e r g y stems from t h e historic development and p r e s e n t s t r u c t u r e of t h e energy system in Central Europe. After t h e two oil p r i c e hikes in 1973 and 1979 t h e oil-importing countries, specifically those in Western Europe, undertook major e f f o r t s to reduce t h e i r dependence on oil e x p o r t e r s . During t h e economic stagnation at t h e beginning of t h e 1980s, the

S o u r c e s

Primary Energy [EJ]

Lignite Hard coal Crude oil Oil production Gas

Nuclear Hydro S o l a r Waste

R e f e r e n c e Case (X) 1990 2000 2030 37.71 37.28 39.67

3.36 3.72 3 .SO 17.77 17.68 18.57 42.46 38.26 27.05 0.37 0.45 0.77 20.80 21.53 24.63 10.47 13.06 19.60 3.71 3.76 3.68 0.17 0.41 0.84 0.88 1.11 1.36

Nuclear Phase-Out Case ( X )

1990 2000 2030 37.68 37.14 38.52 3.34 3.74 3.60 17.86 18.09 28.91 42.43 38.75 29.68 0.37 0.45 0.79 20.77 24.97 30.87 10.47 8.69 0.00 3.72 3.77 3.87 0.17 0.41 0.87 0.88 1.12 1.40

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use of g a s a l s o s t a r t e d t o s t a g n a t e and even decline. In a dynamic economic environment n a t u r a l g a s could, to s o m e e x t e n t , t a k e o v e r from c r u d e oil as a swing supplier.

The supply p i c t u r e of n a t u r a l g a s i s a l s o v e r y r e l a x e d c u r r e n t l y . The USSR h a s some f r e e c a p a c i t y in i t s pipeline system f r o m S i b e r i a to Europe, and Algeria h a s a tremendous o v e r c a p a c i t y f o r LNG production and shipping. Additional sup- plies a r e s e c u r e d by t h e decision to develop t h e S l e i p n e r and Troll g a s fields in t h e North S e a (Quinlan, 1986). If t h e r e i s a s h o r t a g e of any e n e r g y c a r r i e r

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like, in o u r considerations, n u c l e a r e n e r g y

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g a s c a n supply t h e s h o r t f a l l . Crude oil h a s (mostly political) problems due to supply s e c u r i t y considerations, while coal imports need t h e construction of new h a r b o r s and r a i l t r a n s p o r t . Significant in- creases in t h e use of coal, o t h e r t h a n in l a r g e power plants, would a l s o create environmental problems or t h e necessity to apply v e r y advanced, c l e a n technologies, like fluidized bed combustion.

E l e c t r i c i t y G e n e r a t i o n and f i n a l E n e r g y Use

Electricity g e n e r a t i o n in t h e Central European region, according to t h e RC, n e a r l y doubles in t h e p e r i o d from 1980 to 2030, supplying t h e n 2000 TWh, or 25% of t h e to- tal final e n e r g y . This r e l a t i v e l y l o w growth of 1.2% p e r y e a r i s a reflection of o u r assumptions on t h e development of e n e r g y utilization in t h e domestic heating mark- e t . The use of e l e c t r i c i t y f o r heating will b e limited because insulation s t a n d a r d s improve o v e r time and new technologies

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like h e a t pumps or highly efficient g a s b u r n e r s

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are being introduced. Additionally, t h e production and use of d i s t r i c t h e a t will i n c r e a s e o v e r time, again reducing t h e growth potential of e l e c t r i c i t y in t h a t sector. Similar arguments hold f o r o t h e r low-temperature h e a t m a r k e t s in t h e commercial and industrial sectors.

In t h e RC e l e c t r i c i t y production i s mainly based on coal and nuclear, which to- g e t h e r supply a b o u t 80% of t h e e l e c t r i c i t y up to t h e y e a r 2000. After t h e t u r n of t h e c e n t u r y n a t u r a l g a s will gain some importance, delivering 20% of e l e c t r i c i t y by t h e end of t h e study period. This high s h a r e of e l e c t r i c i t y produced from n a t u r a l g a s i s a r e s u l t of t h e introduction of highly efficient g a s t u r b i n e s and gas-fired combined cycles. Additionally, t h e r e q u i r e d reduction of SO2 emissions f a v o r s na- t u r a l gas. But not only i s g a s s u p p o r t e d by technological p r o g r e s s ; by t h e end of t h e time horizon half of t h e coal-based power plants will use fluidized bed combustion, t h e rest being equipped according to p r e s e n t s t a n d a r d s . Around 2030 coal- based power plants will supply 27% of e l e c t r i c i t y , while t h e s h a r e of nuclear e n e r - gy will b e 38%. Figure 1 shows t h e development of t h e e l e c t r i c i t y generation s t r u c - t u r e in t h e RC and NPC.

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0

oil & gas

-

^nuclear

1980 ZOOO 2030 lm ^{2 m}

mo

R e f e m m e w Nuclear Ph.s Out

Figure I: E l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n in t h e RC and t h e NPC, 1990, 2000, and 2030, in TWh.

For t h e c a s e in which no new n u c l e a r power plants a r e c o n s t r u c t e d a f t e r 1990, t h e contribution of n u c l e a r power t o e l e c t r i c i t y production will b e reduced by 170 TWh o r o n e t h i r d in 2000, which constitutes 12% of g e n e r a t e d e l e c t r i c i t y . By 2010 n u c l e a r power w i l l b e phased o u t completely, leaving a g a p of 610 (in 2010) t o 800 (in 2030) TWh t o b e filled by o t h e r e n e r g y s o u r c e s . Also, e l e c t r i c i t y u s e will be, due to t h e i n c r e a s e d production c o s t , reduced by 1 4 0 TWh, t h u s constituting 23.3% of t h e final e n e r g y use in 2030

-

compared with 25.512. in t h e RC. Gas-based power plants will produce 260 TWh more e l e c t r i c i t y and coal power plants will b e s t e p p e d up by 400 TWh (see Figure 1 ) .

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Table 3: Final e n e r g y consumption p e r e n e r g y c a r r i e r , RC and NPC, 1990 to 2030, in s h a r e s (2); t h e t o t a l i s given in EJ.

The reduction of e l e c t r i c i t y in final e n e r g y use will b e balanced by a n in- c r e a s e in d i s t r i c t h e a t consumption of n e a r l y 40% compared with t h e RC. The use of o t h e r final e n e r g y c a r r i e r s will change only marginally: t h e use of g a s will in- c r e a s e by 220 P J (5.9 x10Bm3)

,

and t h e consumption of r e f i n e r y p r o d u c t s by 174 PJ (4 million toe [5]) in 2030. Table 3 summarizes final e n e r g y use in t h e two s c e n a r i o s f o r t h e y e a r s 1990, 2000, and 2030.

Import Dependence and Trade Balance

Nuclear Phase-Out Case (9.)

1990 2000 2030 27.84 27.45 28.04

0.50 0 .OO 0.00 6.58 5.62 8.21 10.33 10.09 6.75 27.73 25.27 19.12 14.52 13.07 10.99 23.0'7 24.39 22.17 15.43 17.86 23.26 1.61 3.14 8.42 0.23 0.56 1.19 C a r r i e r

Final Energy [EJ]

Lignite Hard coal Fuel oil G a s oil Gasoline G a s

E l e c t r i c i t y District h e a t S o l a r

Substantial c h a n g e s in domestic e n e r g y production in Central E u r o p e c a n only b e achieved in h a r d coal e x t r a c t i o n . In t h e RC h a r d c o a l mining i s r e d u c e d f r o m 230 million tce [5] in 1980 t o 150 million t c e in 2000 and 95 million t c e in 2030, whereas in t h e NPC t h e r e will b e a n e a r l y c o n s t a n t production of h a r d c o a l a f t e r 2000 at a level of 140 million t c e / y r . This h i g h e r production level r e q u i r e s significantly h i g h e r investments t h a n c u r r e n t l y needed f o r t h e production of h a r d coal, because virtually a l l t h e c o a l t h a t i s relatively inexpensive will have been exploited a f t e r t h e t u r n of t h e c e n t u r y . The assumed ban of nuclear power will allow t h e o p e r a t i o n of mines otherwise uneconomic. Additionally, coal r e p r e s e n t s t h e only opportuni- ty

to

s u b s t i t u t e f o r n u c l e a r e n e r g y without increasing t h e dependence on e n e r g y imports e v e n f u r t h e r . Thus, a l s o f o r political r e a s o n s , a h i g h e r level of domestic c o a l e x t r a c t i o n would b e d e s i r a b l e [6]. The joint e f f e c t of t h e 45% h i g h e r e x t r a c - tion of h a r d c o a l within t h e region

-

corresponding to a n i n c r e a s e of 30% of t o t a l coal e x t r a c t i o n , including lignite

-

and t h e abolition of n u c l e a r reactors will be a 33% lower availability of domestic e n e r g y in 2030 [7] (see Table 4).

R e f e r e n c e Case ( I . ) 1990 2000 2030 27.82 27.15 27.53

0.50 0.00 0 .OO 6.52 5.59 8.37 10.30 10.23 7.16 27.76 25.15 19.05 14.53 13.05 10.70 23.09 23.93 21.78 15.46 18.46 25.51 1.61 3.03 6.21 0.23 0.56 1.21

(13)

Table 4: P r i m a r y e n e r g y imports p e r e n e r g y c a r r i e r , RC and NPC, 1990

to

2030, (EJ).

In 2000 e n e r g y imports will be 8% h i g h e r in t h e NPC t h a n in t h e RC, in 2030 they will b e 27% h i g h e r . The constituents of t h i s substantial i n c r e a s e in e n e r g y im- p o r t s will be 55% h a r d c o a l (87 million t c e ) , 9% oil and oil p r o d u c t s (16 million toe), and 32% g a s (57

x l o 9

m3). Import dependence will i n c r e a s e from 44% and 48% in t h e RC and NPC, r e s p e c t i v e l y , in 2000 to 50% and

to

65%, r e s p e c t i v e l y , in 2030 (see Table 5).

Table 5: Comparison of import dependence f o r NPC and RC.

Hard coal Oil

G a s TOTAL

On t h e basis of t h e import p r i c e assumptions (an annual i n c r e a s e in t h e r e a l oil p r i c e of 2%, s t a r t i n g from 15$/toe in 1985/1986, and g a s and c o a l p r i c e s at 75%

and 43% of t h e oil p r i c e , respectively), t h e e f f e c t s on t h e t r a d e balance of t h e region as a whole c a n b e a s s e s s e d . In 2000 t h e payments f o r e n e r g y imports will b e 7.2% h i g h e r in t h e NPC t h a n in t h e RC. By 2030 this f i g u r e will i n c r e a s e to 22.2%.

In a b s o l u t e values, t h i s will amount to 1 4 4

x l o 9

US$ (1980) in 2000 and 860 x l o 9 US$ (1980) in 2030.

R e f e r e n c e Case

1990 2000 2030

1 . 7 1 2.30 4 -60

11 .OO 10.27 7.90

2.44 3.59 6.70

15.15 16.16 19.20

Imported fossils total fossils Imported e n e r g y

primary e n e r g y

One must n o t e h e r e t h a t exchange rate fluctuations. as e x p e r i e n c e d o v e r t h e l a s t couple of y e a r s between t h e US$ a n d t h e European c u r r e n c i e s , would a f f e c t t h e import bills of t h e C e n t r a l E u r o p e a n nations by a similar o r d e r of magnitude.

Nuclear Phase-Out Case

1990 2000 2030

1 . 7 3 2.43 7.13

11.00 10.39 8.60

2.42 4.71 8.82

15.15 17.53 24.55

R e f e r e n c e Case ( X )

1990 2000 2030

47.79 53.63 66.01

40.58 43.97 49 -61

Nuclear Phase-Out Case ( X )

1990 2000 2030

47.77 55.41 68.77

40.56 47.85 65.11

(14)

Consequences for the Environmental Situation

In t h e RC, S O 2 emissions will d e c r e a s e from 1 2 million tons [8] in 1980 to 7.3 million tons in 2000 and to 5.7 million tons by 2030 (see Table 6). This reduction will b e achieved by c o n c e r t e d reductions in all e n e r g y consuming and conversion sectors.

In e l e c t r i c i t y generation this will o c c u r because of t h e i n c r e a s e d introduction of n u c l e a r e n e r g y , t h e use of g a s as fuel, and t h e application of fluidized bed combustion f o r coal burning. In t h e residential and commercial sectors d i s t r i c t h e a t , na- t u r a l g a s , and e l e c t r i c h e a t pumps will b e used to substitute f o r heavy oil and coal.

Table 6: S O 2 emissions in t h e RC and t h e NPC, as p e r c e n t a g e of t h e total, which i s given in million tons.

The only m a r k e t t h a t will have (temporarily) increasing SO2 emissions i s t h e t r a n s p o r t s e c t o r , due to t h e i n c r e a s e d use of diesel oil f o r which no d e c r e a s e in s u l f u r content i s f o r e s e e n in t h e model. However, t h e t r a n s p o r t sector contribut- e d only 3% of t h e S O 2 emissions in 1980 in Central Europe. Thus, although s o m e c o u n t r i e s have legislation to d e c r e a s e s t a n d a r d s , t h e additional modeling e f f o r t to r e f l e c t t h i s situation was not made.

In t h e industrial s e c t o r , similarly to t h e s p a c e heating market, increased amounts of n a t u r a l g a s , s o m e d i s t r i c t h e a t f o r low- to medium-temperature p r o c e s s h e a t , and t h e utilization of e l e c t r i c i t y f o r high-temperature markets, as w e l l as g a s and e l e c t r i c h e a t pumps for s p a c e h e a t and low-temperature p r o c e s s h e a t production, will r e s u l t in a reduction of SO2 emissions of 50% between 1980 and 2030 (see Table 7).

In t h e NPC, SO2 emissions will b e virtually unchanged in comparison with t h e RC for industry and t r a n s p o r t . In t h e household s e c t o r , m o r e light oil and fuel oil will b e used f o r s p a c e heating, resulting in slightly h i g h e r emissions. The main ef- f e c t will be, as could b e e x p e c t e d , in c e n t r a l conversion, i.e., e l e c t r i c i t y and dis- t r i c t h e a t generation. The amount of d i s t r i c t h e a t produced will b e considerably

I

Emission S o u r c e TOTAL

[lo6

t]

Central conversion Industry Residential &

commercial T r a n s p o r t

1980 12.10 60.31 24.19 12.62 2.88

R e f e r e n c e Case (%)

1990 2000 2030

9.76 7.29 5.71

61.99 58.71 62.90

21.62 22.22 24.72

12.60 13.72 6.51

3.79 5.35 5.81

Nuclear Phase-Out Case (Z)

1990 2000 2030

9.74 7.42 7.04

61.78 58.62 69.14

21.84 22.37 20.13

12.60 13.75 6.07

3.78 5.26 4.66

(15)

-

11

-

Table 7 : Development of S O 2 emissions in t h e RC a n d t h e NPC (1980=100).

h i g h e r , a n d t h e f u e l mix f o r e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n will c o n t a i n , a f t e r 2000, consid- e r a b l y more c o a l . By 2030, 7 5 X of t h i s c o a l will b e b u r n t i n fluidized beds; t h e remaining 200 TWh(e) p r o d u c e d will b e used in conventional c o a l power p l a n t s (with b a c k - p r e s s u r e t u r b i n e s to utilize t h e waste h e a t f o r d i s t r i c t h e a t production) a n d so will s t i l l p r o d u c e S O 2 a c c o r d i n g to t h e a v e r a g e environmental s t a n d a r d s valid in 1985. N e v e r t h e l e s s , t h e t o t a l S O 2 emissions in t h e y e a r 2030 u n d e r t h e NPC s c e n a r i o will b e 42% lower t h a n in 1980, which i s in line with t h e 30% r e d u c t i o n com- mitments made by t h e c o u n t r i e s c o n s i d e r e d u n d e r t h e Convention of Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (July 1985, Helsinki). Reductions a c h i e v e d in t h e RC amount to 5 3 X .

F o r NO, t h e case i s d i f f e r e n t . The introduction of n a t u r a l gas, a f u e l with varying b u t low n i t r o g e n c o n t e n t , will improve t h e situation, b u t some NO, i s formed in t h e combustion p r o c e s s . In t h e s c e n a r i o s , new technological develop- ments allow t h e s p e c i f i c emissions f r o m g a s b u r n e r s to b e f u r t h e r r e d u c e d by some 40%. In t h e RC t h e emissions of NO, will b e r e d u c e d by 30% up to 2000, a n d by 45%

u p to 2030. In t h e NPC, n o significant c h a n g e will o c c u r by 2000, b u t up to 2030 t h e emissions will b e 16X h i g h e r t h a n in t h e RC ( s e e Tables 8 a n d 9). The h i g h e r in- crease in NO, emissions, when compared to SO2, i s a r e s u l t of t h e i n c r e a s e d use of n a t u r a l g a s f o r e l e c t r i c i t y production.

However, b o t h t h e S O 2 a n d t h e NO, emissions c a n b e e x p e c t e d to b e e v e n lower in r e a l i t y , as most p r o b a b l y environmental s t a n d a r d s w i l l b e more s t r i n g e n t t h a n assumed in t h e model r u n s . Additionally, technological improvements and t h e utilization of combined c y c l e power p l a n t s f o r c o a l combustion will act in t h e same d i r e c t i o n .

N u c l e a r Phase-Out Case

1990 2000 2030

82.47 59.59 6 6 .71

7 2 .70 56.66 48.46

80.39 66.67 28.10

105.71 111.43 94.29

80.50 61.32 58.18

Emission S o u r c e C e n t r a l

c o n v e r s i o n Industry Residential &

commercial T r a n s p o r t TOTAL

R e f e r e n c e Case

1 9 9 0 2000 2030

82.88 58.63 49.18

7 2 . 0 1 55.29 48.12

80.39 65.36 24.18

105.71 111.43 94.29

80.66 60.25 47.19

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Table 8: NO, emissions in t h e RC and t h e NPC as a p e r c e n t a g e of total, which is given in million tons.

Table 9: Development of NO, emissions in t h e RC and t h e NPC (1980

=

100).

Emission S o u r c e TOTAL [lo6 t]

Central conversion Industry Residential &

commercial T r a n s p o r t

Energy Prices and Investments of the Energy Sector R e f e r e n c e Case

1990 2000 2030 9.15 7.42 5.85 34.21 31.27 36.92

9.95 10.51 12.82 4.70 4.58 3.76 51.15 53.50 46.50 1980

10.59 33.52 10.76 4.63 51.18

Nuclear power plants are t h e e n e r g y conversion technologies with t h e highest cap- i t a l requirements p e r unit of e n e r g y produced. This high c a p i t a l intensity i s offset by t h e relatively low fuel costs involved. Owing to t h e reduction in total electricity generation in t h e NPC compared with t h a t in t h e RC, and to t h e discontinuation of n u c l e a r power, t h e investments f o r e l e c t r i c i t y generation in t h e NPC will b e 21%

lower t h a n those in t h e RC in 2000, which amounts to 1.9 billion US$ (1980). In 2030 t h e investments will b e r e d u c e d by 39%, corresponding to 7.2 billion US$

(1980).

1990 2000 2030 9.13 7.59 6.79 34.06 32.28 45.07 10.08 10.67 11.63

4.71 4.61 3.24 51.26 52.31 40.06

1990 2000 2030

87.61 69.01 86.20 80.70 71.05 69.30 87.76 71.43 44.90 86.35 73.25 50.18 86.21 71.67 64.12 Emission

S o u r c e Central

conversion Industry Residential &

commercial T r a n s p o r t TOTAL

Consequently, t h e s t r u c t u r e of t h e energy-related expenditures d i f f e r s between t h e t w o s c e n a r i o s . In t h e NPC t h e expenditures f o r imported e n e r g y will be 7.2% h i g h e r in 2000, constituting 17.7% of t h e total expenditure f o r e n e r g y supply instead of 16.2% in t h e RC. In 2030, t h e gap will b e considerably l a r g e r : import costs i n c r e a s e from 25% in t h e RC to 30% of t h e overall expenditures in t h e NCP.

Note t h a t t h e s e e x p e n d i t u r e s contain a l l t h e c o s t s r e l a t e d to e x t r a c t i o n , t r a n s p o r - R e f e r e n c e Case

1990 2000 2030

88.17 65.35 60.85 79.82 68.42 65.79 87.76 69.39 44.90 86.35 73.25 50.18 86.40 70.07 55.24

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tation, c o n v e r s i o n , a n d utilization of e n e r g y . Thus, domestic s p a c e heating systems are included as w e l l as i n d u s t r i a l b u r n e r s a n d power plants.

Up t o 2000 t h e shadow p r i c e s (marginal c o s t s ) of e l e c t r i c i t y will change only in t h e summer, when base-load power p l a n t s supply t h e major s h a r e of t h e e l e c t r i - c i t y , a n d n u c l e a r p l a n t s h a v e to b e s u b s t i t u t e d f o r . The i n c r e a s e is roughly 20%, from 3 c e n t s (1980) p e r kwh to 3.6 c e n t s (1980). P e a k power will cost 1 7 c e n t s p e r kwh in both cases. By 2030 t h e marginal cost of e l e c t r i c i t y will, depending on t h e load, b e h i g h e r in t h e NPC t h r o u g h o u t t h e y e a r . In summer t h e i n c r e a s e will amount to 4 5 to SO%, while in winter i t will b e between 24 a n d 11%. The marginal c o s t of p e a k power e l e c t r i c i t y will t h e n b e 2 5 c e n t s p e r kwh in t h e NPC, compared with 2 0 c e n t s in t h e RC.

Nuclear Phase O u t and Low Emissions

Beside t h e composition of e n e r g y supply t h e most s t r i k i n g d i f f e r e n c e between t h e RC a n d t h e NPC i s in t h e NO, a n d SO2 emissions. The obvious question in t h i s con- t e x t is: What are t h e implications of abandoning t h e use of n u c l e a r e n e r g y and s t i l l h a v e emissions as low as in t h e RC? S i n c e t h e e n e r g y model for C e n t r a l E u r o p e in- c l u d e s NO, a n d SO2 emission r e d u c t i o n m e a s u r e s f o r c e n t r a l conversion a n d indus- t r i a l applications, w e t r i e d t o a n s w e r t h i s question by limiting t h e emissions of t h e s e two pollutants t o t h e values of t h e RC. The b a s i c s e t u p f o r t h i s model r u n i s like t h a t in t h e NPC.

The r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d s u g g e s t t h a t t h e r e are no major problems in reducing t h e emission l e v e l s of t h e NPC t o t h o s e of t h e RC. Up to 2000 t h e emissions will not d i f f e r much anyhow, a n d t h e r e a f t e r t h e u s e of coal i s r e d u c e d slightly

-

6 million tons o r 1 . 6 % le s s h a r d c o a l will b e used in 2030. The c h a n g e i n t h e consumption of a l l o t h e r e n e r g y carriers will b e e v e n lower. The consumption of final e n e r g y will a l s o b e similar, with more e l e c t r i c i t y from t h e combined c y c l e g a s t u r b i n e s and l e s s g a s a n d d i s t r i c t h e a t in t h e e n e r g y menu.

The i n c r e a s e in t h e a n n u a l e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r e n e r g y supply and consumption will b e below I % , as will t h e c h a n g e in t h e t o t a l discounted costs (objective function value). All t h e s e r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t a discontinuation of n u c l e a r e n e r g y c a n b e p e r f o r m e d without i n c u r r i n g major environmental problems, if t h e p r o p e r meas- u r e s are t a k e n in time to p r o t e c t o u r environment.

An i m p o r t a n t problem c o n c e r n i n g t h e environment, which is n o t discussed in t h i s analysis, i s t h e question of C02 accumulation in t h e a t m o s p h e r e . All uses of en- e r g y t h a t r e l y on burning a f u e l containing c a r b o n are bound to i n c r e a s e t h e atmospheric c o n c e n t r a t i o n of C02. Only e n e r g y c a r r i e r s t h a t are g e n e r a t e d without

(18)

such a s o u r c e of e n e r g y

-

like n u c l e a r and solar e n e r g y

-

or from s o u r c e s t h a t r e c y c l e atmospheric c a r b o n

-

like biomass

-

c a n help to solve t h i s problem. And only e l e c t r i c i t y and hydrogen c a n b e used to bring t h i s c l e a n e n e r g y to t h e consu- mer. Centrally g e n e r a t e d h e a t would also b e environmentally benign, b u t i t h a s a r a t h e r limited r a n g e of applications.

A Nuclear Moratorium

Another question of some i n t e r e s t c o n c e r n s t h e e f f e c t s of a n immediate discon- t i n u a t i o n of a l l n u c l e a r power generation. Since t h e resolution of t h e model cal- culations i s only five y e a r s , t h e e f f e c t of such a decision in all Central European c o u n t r i e s within t h e n e x t five y e a r s w a s analyzed. In t h e Nuclear Moratorium Case (NMC) n o n u c l e a r power station will b e put on-line a f t e r 1985, and from 1990 on no e l e c t r i c i t y will b e g e n e r a t e d from n u c l e a r power.

The major difficulties encountered in a n immediate discontinuation c o n c e r n t h e availability of power generation capacity. In t h e RC and t h e NPC roughly 400 TWh or 34% of t h e e l e c t r i c i t y will b e g e n e r a t e d from n u c l e a r power stations in 1990. Since c u r r e n t l y many c o u n t r i e s have

-

^due^tot h e too high f o r e c a s t s used as a basis f o r t h e expansion of t h e system

-

considerable o v e r c a p a c i t i e s in t h e i r e l e c t r i c i t y systems, t h e necessity t o install new systems is somewhat alleviated.

Between 1985 and 1990 2 xlo9 US$ will b e invested f o r fossil-fired power plants in t h e RC, and in t h e NPC t h i s f i g u r e amounts to 2.4 xlo9 US$, while t h e investments f o r n u c l e a r power plants will b e 6.4 xlog US$ in both cases. The high investments in t h e NPC a r e , as mentioned e a r l i e r , initiated due t o t h e p e r f e c t f o r e s i g h t in t h e model a p p r o a c h . In t h e NMC t h e annual investments between 1985 and 1990 will amount t o 12.9 xlog US$. Thus, t h e total i n v e s t m e n t s for e l e c t r i c i t y generation w i l l be 50% h i g h e r over t h e period 3985 to Z990 i n t h e NMC.

In terms of t o t a l e n e r g y use, t h e 10% primary e n e r g y equivalent contributed by n u c l e a r power in 1990 will have to b e substituted f o r . A s in t h e NPC, in t h e NMC t h e main additions will come from n a t u r a l gas. The g a s imports will b e 34% or 70 x109m3 h i g h e r t h a n in t h e RC in 1990; compared with 1985 t h e i n c r e a s e will b e 83 x109m3. In t e r m s of i n c r e a s e d e x p o r t capacity from Algeria o r t h e USSR t h i s seems to b e a n unrealistically high value; also North Sea production i s unlikely to grow a t t h i s r a t e . From t h i s viewpoint h i g h e r oil imports seem to b e m o r e prob- able.

Total e l e c t r i c i t y generation will b e reduced by 40 TWh o r 3.5% in 1990

-

^a

reduction t h a t will o c c u r mainly in t h e industrial use of e l e c t r i c i t y f o r high- t e m p e r a t u r e p r o c e s s e s . The remaining g a p left by n u c l e a r will be substituted by

(19)

fossil power p l a n t s

-

f u e l e d with e i t h e r g a s o r f u e l oil, depending on t h e availabili- t y a n d p r i c e o n t h e world m a r k e t . In t h e long r u n t h e supply menus will b e t h e same in both cases.

Broader Aspects

As a l r e a d y mentioned, in 1 9 8 5 C e n t r a l E u r o p e p r o d u c e d 444.1 TWh of electric en- e r g y f r o m n u c l e a r power. In t e r m s of p r i m a r y energy equivalent 193 1 0 0 million t o n s of oil or 155 million t o n s of coal will b e r e q u i r e d to s u b s t i t u t e f o r n u c l e a r en- e r g y in C e n t r a l E u r o p e . These a r e , in r e l a t i o n b t h e global production of those fuels, r e l a t i v e l y modest amounts. In 1 9 8 5 t h e global production of c r u d e oil amounted to 2790 million toe a n d f o r c o a l to 3500 million tce (2271 million toe).

Especially r e g a r d i n g c r u d e oil, t h e c u r r e n t m a r k e t situation allows a n additional 1 0 0 million toe or e v e n l a r g e r amounts b b e supplied r a t h e r easily. Between 1979 a n d 1985, global production of c r u d e oil f e l l by 436 million b e and f o r OPEC even by 7 1 3 million toe. But also coal a n d n a t u r a l g a s e x t r a c t i o n c a n b e s t e p p e d up in a number of c o u n t r i e s , although slower t h a n in t h e case of c r u d e oil. Thus, in t h e n e a r t e r m t h e additional amounts of fossil fuels needed to s u b s t i t u t e f o r n u c l e a r power in C e n t r a l E u r o p e could b e supplied r a t h e r easily, a n d t h e r e are n o logical r e a s o n s why t h i s should l e a d to d r a s t i c p r i c e i n c r e a s e s f o r t h o s e fuels.

Even in t h e long r u n , u p to 2030, t h e additional amounts of fossil f u e l s needed to fill t h e g a p r e s u l t i n g f r o m a n u c l e a r p h a s e o u t , as d e s c r i b e d in t h i s p a p e r , are less t h a n t h e world 1 9 8 5 consumption of fossil fuels: 5000 million toe additional demand (cumulative) o v e r t h e n e x t 4 5 y e a r s compared with 6500 million toe of fos- s i l f u e l s consumed i n 1985. The combustion of t h e s e additional fossil f u e l s will in- crease t h e C02 emissions by roughly half t h e global C02 emissions of t h e y e a r 1980.

Even if t h e e f f e c t s of a n u c l e a r p h a s e o u t d o n o t show d r a m a t i c consequences on t h e g l o b a l s c a l e , t h i s should n o t s u g g e s t t h a t a discontinuation of t h e f u r t h e r development of power g e n e r a t i o n systems based on nonfossil fuels i s t r i v i a l . The d e p e n d e n c e on imported f u e l s , a n d t h u s t h e vulnerabilty to p r i c e s h o c k s , i n c r e a s e s in t h e c o u n t r i e s c o n s i d e r e d , a n d w e d o n o t know y e t how, e v e n comparatively minor, additional C02 emissions will a f f e c t t h e e a r t h ' s climate.

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Conclusions

The f i r s t a r d e r analysis of t h e impacts of a discontinuation of n u c l e a r e n e r g y in Central Europe d e s c r i b e d in t h i s p a p e r indicates t h a t t h e d i r e c t e f f e c t s o n t h e en- e r g y system are manageable, and t h a t t h e e f f e c t s on t h e environment c a n b e k e p t within r e a s o n a b l e limits. The financial consequences

-

s e e n from t h e p e r s p e c t i v e of t h e whole e n e r g y system

-

are also moderate.

The m o s t s e v e r e problems will obviously o c c u r in F r a n c e , with i t s s t r o n g nu- c l e a r program and t h e low availability of domestic e n e r g y r e s o u r c e s . But, to b e r e a l i s t i c , i t i s v e r y unlikely t h a t F r a n c e , without experiencing a major n u c l e a r accident, will follow t h e NPC or NMC s t r a t e g i e s investigated in o u r p a p e r . The only c o u n t r i e s t h a t might consider such policies are t h e FRG and Belgium. In t h e FRG t h e consequences would b e low, due to t h e l a r g e number of c u r r e n t l y existing but unused fossil-fired plants. If a n u c l e a r phase o u t o c c u r s , both countries could switch to c o a l as t h e major s o u r c e of e l e c t r i c i t y , which could, besides t h e r e l a t e d costs, have a positive f i r s t - o r d e r e f f e c t on employment. One of t h e studies p e r - formed o n t h i s s u b j e c t in t h e FRG (by t h e Institute f o r Applied Ecology in Berlin) even f o r e s e e s a n innovative push from t h e necessity t o find new solutions (Wiener Z e i t u n g , 10. 9. 1986).

However, t h e conclusions derived from a macro-perspective cannot b e t r a n s l a t e d d i r e c t l y to t h e micro-level. F o r a discontinuation of n u c l e a r power t h e industries a f f e c t e d m o s t will b e t h e e l e c t r i c utilities, which will have to develop new investment s t r a t e g i e s , and t h e companies supplying t h e investment goods. The consequences could

-

f o r single companies

-

be in t h e r a n g e of t h e problems t h a t emerged i n t h e 1960s, when t h e e x p o r t of large-diameter pipes from members of NATO to t h e USSR w a s banned by a n embargo. This embargo had been initiated by t h e USA because t h e pipes w e r e t o b e used in t h e construction of t h e Friendship oil pipeline from t h e USSR to i t s E a s t e r n European Allies, t h u s possibly assisting W a r - s a w Pact Maneuvers (Stent, 1982). A t t h a t time l a r g e German companies, like Man- nesmann and Hosch, which were involved in East-West t r a d e , had to c u t t h e i r produc tion capacity considerably.

Similar measures w e r e n e c e s s a r y in t h e r e f i n e r y sector at t h e beginning of t h e 1980s. Because of a slump in demand and t h e bad performance of t h e Western economies, t o g e t h e r with a dramatically d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n of demand f o r oil pro- ducts, capacity had to b e c u t , and even new r e f i n e r i e s had to b e closed. In t h e FRG, refining c a p a c i t y w a s reduced from 160 X

lo6

tonnes in 1978 to 87 X

lo6

tonnes in 1985, a reduction of 45%, while t h e a v e r a g e reduction in t h e EC w a s roughly 36%.

The capacity f o r upgrading heavy p r o d u c t s rose by 30% in t h e same period (Baum, 1986).

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A d i f f e r e n c e between t h e n u c l e a r industries and t h e s e examples is t h e special i n t e r e s t of governments in t h e i r n u c l e a r industries. Leaving aside defence-related a s p e c t s , which have considerable importance in some c o u n t r i e s , t h e s e industries a r e viewed a s high-technology b r a n c h e s and e x p e c t e d to initiate innovation, technological p r o g r e s s , and improve competitiveness. Most governments would b e con- c e r n e d a b o u t a reduction i n such operations.

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[I] These f i g u r e s include only those r e a c t o r s under construction or with a con- firmed construction start in 1986.

[2] Northern E u r o p e (Scandinavia), Central Europe, South W e s t Europe (Iberian Peninsula), South E a s t Europe (Greece, Italy, Yugoslavia, Turkey), and E a s t Europe (CMEA excluding t h e USSR).

[3] Algeria, t h e Middle East, Netherlands, Nigeria, Norway, and t h e USSR.

[4] The r e a s o n f o r t h e minor d i f f e r e n c e s is, t h a t t h e supply model h a s p e r f e c t f o r e s i g h t and calculates t h e optimum f o r t h e whole time horizon.

[5]

looom3

of n a t u r a l g a s

=

37.3 GJ.

1 toe (ton of oil equivalent)

=

44.8 GJ.

ltce (ton of coal equivalent)

=

29.3 GJ.

[6] The, f o r a l i n e a r programming model, somewhat unexpected r e s u l t of a n in- crease in both domestic e x t r a c t i o n and imports of coal, i s a r e s u l t of a dynam- i c c o n s t r a i n t enforcing t h a t domestic e x t r a c t i o n c a n , at maximum, b e k e p t constant.

p]

Domestic e n e r g y in t h i s analysis is all t h e e n e r g y produced in t h e c o u n t r i e s in t h e region C e n t r a l Europe. This means t h a t all g a s from t h e Netherlands i s included in t h e domestic s o u r c e s , as w e l l as t h e oil and g a s produced in t h e Brit- ish p a r t of t h e North Sea.

[8] The IIASA Acid Rain P r o j e c t (ACI) states a f i g u r e of 13.6 million tons of SO2 emissions f o r t h e same region in 1980, with 8% h i g h e r emissions in t h e indus- t r i a l s e c t o r and lower f i g u r e s f o r t h e household/commercial and t r a n s p o r t a - tion sectors. This discrepancy w a s not resolved y e t , but due to t h e relatively s m a l l d i f f e r e n c e s t h e r e s u l t s would only change marginally.

[9] I.e., e x p r e s s e d as t h e amount of fossil fuels r e q u i r e d to g e n e r a t e t h e s a m e amount of e l e c t r i c i t y .

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