NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR
LlTERACY
VS.
ILUTERACYAn
Historical Substitution AnalysisCesare Marchetti
August 1984 WP-84-62
Working Papers a r e interim reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of t h e Institute or of its National Member Organizations.
INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
PREFACE
The s e a r c h for stable a n d simple behavior of social s y s t e m s led t o i n t e r e s t - ing r e s u l t s in t h e a r e a of economics, e.g. in my analysis of energy s y s t e m s , c a r s , transportation, when physical p a r a m e t e r s were m e a s u r e d , a n d n o t m o n e y indicators.
This led m e t o t h i n k t h a t t h e p r i m a r y m e c h a n i s m s a r e t o be s o u g h t in cul- t u r a l p a t t e r n s , i.e. in t h e way t h e individual and society manipulate informa- tion. "Action" is s e e n t h e n a s a transcodification of c u l t u r a l imagery in m u c h t h e s a m e way a n a n i m a l species is a transcodification of DNA strings.
In order t o proceed in t h a t direction I have s t a r t e d studying s o r t s of
"actions" where m o n e y is n o t directly involved a n d even economic advantages a t large a r e n o t a n indirect cause.
The examples r e p o r t e d h e r e r e f e r t o t h e expansion of literacy in s o m e Western c o u n t r i e s a n d Japan s t a r t i n g from t h e l a s t c e n t u r y . They have been chosen in relation t o completeness a n d credibility of t h e d a t a series.
An Historical Substitution Analysis
AprPs qu 'ils o n t apprir d lire e t d d c r i r e , l a b d i s e l a t e n t e s e d d g a g e .
-
MontaigneCesare Marchetti
General Comments on the Tables
Competition analysis using Volterra e q u a t i o n s h a s proved very successful in describing m a n y sides of h u m a n affairs, especially in t h e field of physical economy. i.e. when physical indicators a r e u s e d t o monitor economic processes, i n s t e a d of t h e usual money indicators [1.][2][3][4].
My s u b j a c e n t hypothesis is t h a t h u m a n affairs are a projection, a transcodification, of m e n t a l affairs in a s t r i c t formal analogy of DNA being transcodified i n t o living c r e a t u r e s swimming a n d flghting in t h e i r ecological niches. In t h i s f r a m e of thinking h u m a n affairs, organization a n d economy in p a r t i c u l a r a r e t h e "phenotypic" correspondent s t r u c t u r e s c r e a t e d a n d manipu- l a t e d in t h e individual a n d collective m i n d a n d should be controlled by m e c h a n - i s m s a n d r u l e s therein.
All t h i s m a y appear a s a form of platonism filtered through biological tem- plates. I t h i n k i t is m o r e t h a n t h a t . It is t h e recognition t h a t platonism did d e t e c t a n d r e c o n s t r u c t , if partially a n d imperfectly, t h e working of a biological system. Human society, i t s c u l t u r e a n d behavior, a r e obviously an outcrop OF evolutionary biological processes, a n d I see n o contraindication i n trying t o m a p t h e m u n d e r a u n i t a r y formal t h e o r y [5].
That said. I have been chasing for examples where t h e usual economic drives a r e n o t directly accountable for explaining behavior, a n d where credible statistics a r e available. The case I will examine now is t h a t of literacy.
Our brain is certainly endowed with e x t r a o r d i n a r y memory capacity and h u m a n i t y for a long t i m e relied on i t alone. Hunting-gathering p e r m i t t e d only s c a t t e r e d populations with small aggregates having limited c u l t u r a l pools a n d interpersorial i n t e r a c t i o n s t o keep r e c o r d of [6].
When m a n a g e d a g r i c u l t u r e a n d husbandry increased t h e spatial intensity of t h e food yields and t h e corresponding sprrtial d e n s i t y of human p o p u l a t i o n , m u c h l a r g e r aggregates became physically possible (villages a n d cities) with a consequent i n c r e a s e in t h e complexity of t h e cultural pool a n d personal interactions. At t h a t point a n "external" m e m o r y s t a r t e d showing i t s advan- tages. Writing, for quantities a n d qualities, e m e r g e d precisely a t t h a t point and was already p r e s e n t in t h e "fertile c r e s c e n t " in a r o u n d 3500 B.C.
The e x t e r n a l "hard" memory is obviously m o r e useful where t h e m e s s a g e s a r e complex, t h e t i m e spans a r e long and t h e distances large. Administration, c o m m e r c e a n d religion were t h e most i m p o r t a n t recipients, a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e capacity t o input-output this m e m o r y did n o t need t o s p r e a d outside t h e very r e s t r i c t e d elites of power and wealth.
The situation did not change m u c h for t h e following four t h o u s a n d y e a r s , in my opinion because t h e complexity of a social s y s t e m depends on population density, and a g r i c u l t u r a l practices did not substantially i n c r e a s e t h e food pro- duction densities which control population during t h a t period of time. Much of t h e idea of c o n t i n u o u s progress in time actually comes from i n c r e a s i n g ignorance when dealing with m o r e a n d m o r e a n c i e n t civilizations. 3000 B.C.
Mesopotamian c u l t u r e appears extraordinarily c o r n p l e z a n d m o d e r n when t h e opportunity is given t o delve into t h e socioeconomic u n i t s by i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e massive h e r i t a g e of clay tablets.
Through a n u m b e r of m e c h a n i s m s t h e first breakthrough c a m e a t t h e e n d of t h e first millennium A.D. a n d a second during t h e Renaissance, a n d a n explo- sion of h u m a n population followed in t h e 18th a n d 19th c e n t u r i e s [8].
Population explosion m e a n s spatial densification and t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of new levels of complexity i n t o t h e s t r u c t u r e of Western society, in p a r t i c u l a r large- scale urbanization a n d t h e creation of a n industrial s t r u c t u r e . The n e e d t o c o m m u n i c a t e t o t h e individual b e c a m e m o r e variegated and t h e individuals in t h e i r lafger n u m b e r s m o r e difficult t o reach. It is h e r e t h a t l i t e r a c y a s a m e a n s of t r a n s f e r r i n g downwards from t h e powerful, wealthy a n d l e a r n e d t o t h e m a s s e s s t a r t e d t o show selective advantages a n d was p u s h e d u n d e r various motivations.
A supporting a r g u m e n t for this thesis is t h a t new vehicles for "pushing down" information s u c h a s radio and television a r e progressively displacing literacy, which in m y opinion i s of dubi&s~usefulness t o t h e individual below a certain level i n t h e h i e r a r c h i c a l scale.
I
have known myself b u s i n e s s m e n with rich personalities, splendid memories, fast calculating capacities a n d g r e a t success in t h e i r t r a d e s , who were perfectly illiterate.All t h e s e considerations s e r v e t o d r e s s my opinion t h a t m a s s l i t e r a c y i s n o t really t h e talisman of social progress, freedom a n d intellectual illumination, b u t just one of t h e possible tools t o t r a n s m i t downward social information, a n d consequently should be considered one technology in competition with o t h e r s .
The problem with t h e statistics is t h a t literacy i s different t h i n g s t o different persons. Very interesting d a t a series from a n c i e n t c h u r c h r e g i s t e r books of m a r r i a g e s , where l i t e r a t e is he who can manage t o write two simple ideograms, his n a m e , a r e difficult t o m e s h with t h e Doxa statistics s e a r c h i n g for those who c a n (still) r e a d t h e ads (less t h a n m a n y advertisers usually suspect!).
Keeping all t h a t in mind, o n e can look cautiously a t t h e analysis
I
m a d e of literacy strings which a p p e a r in [?] and a r e reported on in Figures 1-10.The facts a r e clear: in less t h a n t h r e e c e n t u r i e s t h e s y s t e m went from a few p e r c e n t l i t e r a t e s t o a few p e r c e n t illiterates, f o l l o w i n g a Logistic c o m p e t i - t i o n c u r v e . Considering t h e relative softness and inevitable inhomogeneity of t h e statistical d a t a , t h e quality of fit is remarkable, giving a n o t h e r point of sup- port t o the t h e s i s t h a t processes in t h e minds follow the s a m e r u l e s a s processes in t h e economy. My platonist conclusion t h a t t h i s is b e c a u s e "1Vihil e s t in s e n s u q u o d pria n o n f u e r i t in i n t e l l e c t u " , should in d u e t i m e become inevitable.
REFERENCES
1. Marchetti,
C.
and N. Nakicenovic (1979) The D y n a m i c s of E n e r g y S y s t e m s a n d t h e Logistic 3 u b s t i t u t i o n Model. RR-79-13. Laxenburg, Austria: Interna- tional Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.2. Marchetti, C. (1981) "Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention, a n d Innovation Cycles Revisited" in Technological Forecasting a n d Social C h a n g e , Vol. 18, 1980.
3. Marchetti,
C.
(1983) "The Automobile in a System Context: t h e Past 80 Years a n d t h e Next 20 Years" in Technological Forecasting a n d Social Change, Vol.23, 3-23, 1983.
4. Marchetti, C. (1983) "On a Fifty Years' Pulsation in Human M a i r s : Some Physical Indicators." Paper presented a t t h e Workshop on Long Waves, Depression and Innovation: Implications for National and Regional Economic Policy. Florence, Italy, October 1983.
5. Marchetti, C. (1983) "On the Role of Science in the Postindustrial Society:
"Logos", t h e Empire Builder" in Technological Forecasting a n d Social Change 24, 197-206.
6. Marchetti,
C.
(1979) On E n e r g y a n d Agriculture: f r o m Hunting-Gathering t o L a n d l e s s F a r m i n g . RR-79-10. Laxenburg, Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.7. Flora, P. (1974) Modernisiemngsforschung. Westdeutscher Verlag.
8. McEvedy, C. and R Jones (1978) A f l a s of World P o p u l a t i o n History.
- 4
-
ILLITERACY
(B)
Belgium
Sources: Cipolla, C.M. 1967: Literacy a n d development i n t h e West. London:
Penguin Books. 1856: Estimate "adults"; 1870: own estimate, over 10 years; t h e percentage of r e c r u i t s who could n o t r e a d or write was 44% in 1850, 39% i n 1860, 29% in 1870, a n d 22% in 18BO; t h e illiteracy r a t e of t h e population of 10 y e a r s a n d over was 31% i n 1880; t h u s t h e illiteracy r a t e was e s t i m a t e d a t 35-40% in 1870; 1890: 10 y e a r s and over;
UNESCO, 1953: Progress of literacy in various countries. Paris. 1910, 1930.
UNESCO, 1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1950, estimate; 1947:
3.3%; 1965: own estimate.
lo1
- F
1 -F100 a 90%
-.
F1855
.-
50%10-1
AT = 130 YEARS
..
10%1 %
10-2 I . . . . - . . . - -
1800 1900 2000
- 5
-
ILLITERACY (ENGLAND A N D WALES)
England and Wales
Sources: Cipolla, C.M. 1967: Literacy a n d development in t h e West. London:
Penguin Books. 1950: own e s t i m a t e of "adults"; For 1851 a n e s t i m a t e d illiteracy r a t e of 30-33% is given; c o n t r a r y t o this, i n 1851 38% of bridal couples could n o t sign t h e i r marriage certificates; in Italy 41% of bridal couples were illiterate a n d t h e illiteracy r a t e of t h e population over 6 y e a r s was 48% in 1901; t h u s t h e alaphabet r a t e of England's a n d Wales's population was e s t i m a t e d a t 50-45% in 1850; 1970: own esiirnztes, "adults"; in 1870 23.5% of bridal couples could not sign their marriage certificates; in France t h e illiteracy r a t e of bridal couples was 29% and t h a t of t h e population of 6 y e a r s and over 31%; t h u s t h e illiteracy r a t e of t h e population of England and Wales in 1870 was e s t i m a t e d a t 25-30%;
1890: own estimate, "adults"; 1890 7.5% of bridal couples could not sign their marriage certificates; t h e r e f o r e , t h e illiteracy r a t e of t h e population was e s t i m a t e d a t 10-15%;
Abel, J.F. a n d N.J. Bond, 1929: Illiteracy in t h e several c o u n t r i e s of t h e world Washington, D.C.: D e p a r t m e n t of t h e Interior, Bureau of Education, Bulletin Nr.
4. 1910, 1930: own e s t i m a t e s . "adults"; 1924 only 0.34% of bridal couples could n o t sign t h e i r m a r r i a g e certificates.
- 6 -
ILLITERACY
(FI
France
S u r c e s : Cipolla, C.M. 1967: Literacy and development in t h e West. London:
Penguin Books. 1850: estimates, "adults"; 1872: 6 years a n d over; 1890: own estimate, 10 years and over; t h e percentage of bridal couples who could not sign t h e i r marriage certificate was 29% in 1872, 11% in 1890 and 5.5% in 1900;
UNESCO, 1953: Progress of literacy in various countries. Paris. The illiteracy r a t e of t h e population of 10 years and over was 16.5% in 1901. Thus t h e illi- t e r a c y r a t e for 1890 was estimated a t 18-22%; 1911, 1931: 10 years and over.
UNESCO, 1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1950: estimates; 1965:
own estimates.
ILLITERACY (I)
Italy
Sources: Cipolla, C.M. 1967: Literacy and development in t h e West. London:
Penguin Books. 1850: estimates, "adults"; 1871: 6 years and over; 1891: own estimates, 6 years and over; interpolated with the aid of values for 1881: 62%, 6 years and over, and 1901: 48%, 6 years and over.
UNESCO, 1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1911, 1931, 1951.
Banks, AS., 1971: Cross-Polity Time-Series Data. Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T.
Press. 1965: own estimates, 7/12 years and over, 8.4%.
- 8
-
ILLITERACY (NL)
Netherlands
Sources: Kolb, G.F., 1975: Handbook of comparative statistics, Leipzig: Arthur Felix. 1850: own e s t i m a t e s , 10 y e a r s a n d over'; from 1846 t o 1858 a n average of 22.8% of t h e r e c r u i t s could n e i t h e r r e a d n o r write;
Cipolla, C.M. 1967: Literacy a n d development in t h e West. London: Penguin Books. This p e r c e n t a g e (about 22%) was r e g i s t e r e d in France a r o u n d 1870. in Belgium in 1880 a n d in Austria a r o u n d 1890; in t h e s a m e years t h e illiteracy of t h e population of 6 or 10 y e a r s a n d over was 31% in France, 31% in Belgium a n d 29% in Austria;
Abel, J.F. a n d N.J. Bond, 1929: Illiteracy i n t h e several c o u n t r i e s of t h e world.
Washington, D.C.: D e p a r t m e n t of t h e I n t e r i o r , Bureau of Education, Bulletin Nr.
4. according t o this t h e illiteracy for t h e Netherlands in 1850 was e s t i m a t e d a t 20-3372; 1870: own e s t i m a t e s , 1 0 y e a r s a n d over; 1875 12.3% of r e c r u i t s were illi- t e r a t e ;
Levasseur, E., 1879: P r i m a r y education in t h e civilized countries. Paris:
Berger-Lerraut. 1889: own e s t i m a t e s , 10 y e a r s a n d over; 1890 7.2% of r e c r u i t s could n e i t h e r r e a d nor write.
Abel, J.F. a n d N.J. Bond, 1929: Illiteracy i n t h e several c o u n t r i e s of t h e w o r l d Washington,
D.C.:
D e p a r t m e n t of t h e I n t e r i o r , Bureau of Education, Bulletin Nr.4. a r o u n d 1900 t h e r a t e of illiteracy of t h e r e c r u i t s in France was 6% a n d in Bel- gium 12% the illiteracy of t h e population of 10 years and over 16.5% a n d 26%
respectively (28.7); accordingly t h e illiteracy of t h e Nether1and.s aroung 1890 was e s t i m a t e d a t 15-20%; 1910, 1930: own e s t i m a t e s , 10 y e a r s a n d over; 1905
5.4% of t h e r e c r u i t s were illiterate, 1913 0.3% a n d 1923 0.35%;
UNESCO,
1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1950: e s t i m a t e s ; 1965, own estimates.ILLITERACY (Jl
loo
--
50%OT = 95 YEARS 10-1
.-
10%1 X 10-2
1800 1900 2000
Japan
Sources:Dore, RP., 1965: Education in Tokugawa Japan. London. 1850, 1870: own esti- m a t e s "adults"; although Japan c r e a t e d a modern civil p r i m a r y school system only in 1972, i t s basis was laid during t h e Tokugawa period; from t h e middle of t h e 18th c e n t u r y t h e school s y s t e m for the.genera1 population developed m o r e strongly a n d 1850 t h e r e were already a r o u n d 1 million p r i m a r y schoolgoers.
t h u s t h e illiteracy r a t e of t h e "adult" population was e s t i m a t e d a t less t h a n 50%
in 1850 a n d less t h a n 45% in 1870, according t o
Hickmann. L., M. Baumann,
F.
Borschitzky and V. Zwilling, 1898: The p r i m a r y school in t h e o t h e r c u l t u r e s of t h e e a r t h . In On t h e h i s t o r y a n d s t a t i s t i c s of t h e primary school a t h o m e a n d abroad, issued by t h e Special Exposition Commis- sion 'Jugendhalle'. Vienna: Verlag d e r Sonderausstellungs-Commission 'Jugen- dhalle',1854 m o r e t h a n half of t h e Japanese could r e a d and write.
Passin, H., 1965: Society a n d education in Japan. New York: Columbia Univer- sity Press. 1890: own e s t i m a t e s , "adults"; in t h e y e a r s 1891 t o 1893 an average of 22% of the r e c r u i t s could n e i t h e r r e a d nor write.
UNESCO, 1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1930: own e s t i m a t e s , 1 5 y e a r s a n d over; e s t i m a t e s with aid of illiteracy r a t e s of different age groups, r a n d o m sampling 1948:
Age group 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64
Illiteracy 0.5% 0.5% 0.7% 2.0% 3.2% 7.7% 16.8%
Abel, J.F. a n d N.J. Bond. 1929: Illiteracy in t h e several c o u n t r i e s of t h e world.
Washington, D.C.: Department of the Interior. Bureau of Education, Bulletin Nr.
4. 1925 only 0.88% of t h e r e c r u i t s could neither r e a d n o r write;
UNESCO, 1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1950: e s t i m a t e s , 1965:
own estimates.
I L L I T E R A C Y (US A N D JAMAICA)
A T = 170 YEARS
A T = 160 YEARS
I .
. . . , . . , . . . - - - . .
I . . . .1800 1900 2000
USA and Jamaica
Sources USA: Banks, AS., 1971: Cross-Polity Time-Series Data. Cambridge.
Mass.: The
M.I.T.
Press. 1965 own estimates; 1963: 1.5%Bowden, W., M. Karpovich and A.P. Usher, 1937: An e.conomic history of Europe since 1950. New York. 1850: own estimates, 10 years and over; of all people of white skin color of 20 years and over 11.2% were illiterate; the estimate is based on t h e assumption t h a t t h e colored population was absolutely illiterate and t h a t t h e population of from 10 t o 20 years showed approximately t h e same illiteracy a s t h a t of 20 years and over; 1870, 1890, 1910, 1930: 10 years and over;
UNESCO, 1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1950: estimates; 1965, own estimates;
Banks, AS., 1971: Cross-Polity Time-Series Data. Cambridge, Mass.: The M.I.T.
Press. 1963: 1.5%
S u r c e s Jumaic a:
UNESCO, 1957: World illiteracy a t mid-century. Paris. 1950: estimates; 1965, own estimates; 1930: own estimates, 5 years and over; interpolated with aid of the values for 1921 and 1943: 32.1%, 5 years and over, 25.4% 15 years and over;
1950: own estimates, 5 years and over; 1965: own estimates;
United Nations, (1948-): Statistical Yearbook. New York. 1960: 18.1%
