A Review: Global Pattern of Distribution of Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) N

(1)

www.rsisinternational.org Page 89

A Review: Global Pattern of Distribution of Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19)

JP.C. Mbagwu

¹

*, Obidike Blessing

²

*, I.V.Anyiam

³

, F.I. Omeje

³

1

Department of Physics, Imo State University, Owerri, Nigeria

2

Department of Chemistry, Imo State University, Owerri, Nigeria

3

Department of Microbiology, Faculty of Science, Federal University, Otuoke, Bayelsa State, Nigeria

*Corresponding Author

Abstract---An urgent respiratory disease called novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV) has spread throughout the globe. In this study, we investigated the pattern of distribution of COVID-19 in five different continents of the global spread as at 26^thMarch, 2020. An online sample of distribution was successfully recruited from Africa, America, Asia, Oceania and Europe. The epidemiological curve and pattern of geographical distribution was also reviewed and results show that European countries like Italy, Spain and United Kingdom indicate an epidemic progression in relation to same curve observed in China in January and February 2020 but with exception to China. European countries record more cases since outbreak of the ensued deadly COVID-19, followed by America and Asia. More than 80% of patients are confirmed in Italy, Spain, UK and USA and this calls for an urgent need to develop therapeutics and vaccines so as to prevent further global spread.

Keywords: COVID-19, SARS-COV-2, Transmission Epidemiological curve, Pandemic, Therapeutics and Vaccines.

I. INTRODUCTION

ewCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID ‘19) is an emerging urgent respiratory disease that was initially noticed in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province China.

This infectious disease is caused by a newly emerged zoonotic coronavirus, a positive-sense enveloped single-stranded polydentate RNA virus, commonly called distinct Urgent Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). Itwas isolated from a patient with pneumonia and associated to a group of urgent respiratory illness cases [1]. Genetic studies revealed that it is intimately related to SARS-CoV and genetically clusters within the genus Beta coronavirus, subgenus Sarbecovirus [2] and belongs to similar family of viruses as SARSs and different types of common cold. This virus is being classified into 3 major groups based on serological cross reactivity namely: porcine transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV), Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) and Feline infectious peritonitis virus (FIPV), the disease is very contagious, and its major clinical symptoms includes fever, lymphopenia, dry cough, lower tract respiratory infection, gastrointestinal symptoms, diarrhea, fatigue, myalgia, and dyspnea [3]. In the world today 18.5%

of the cases with COVID-19 developed to very bad stage, which is characterized by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), septic shock, hard-to-tackle metabolic acidosis,

bleeding and coagulation dysfunction fever, cough, difficulty breathing, muscle pain and tiredness [4,5]. The commonly reported laboratory-confirmed cases showed common clinical symptoms like fever (88%), followed by a dry cough (68%), fatigue (38%), sputum production (33%), dyspnea (19%), sore throat (14%), headache (14%) and myalgia or arthralgia (15%) [6]. While mild symptoms are diarrhea (4%) and vomiting (5%). Around 80% of the reported cases worldwide had mild-to-moderate diseases (including non-pneumonia and pneumonia cases), 13.8% had severe disease and 6.1% were critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure) [7-9].Empirical clinical data have shown that the fatality rate of COVID-19 is 2.3% in the world, much lower than those of SARS (9.5%), MERS (34.4%), and H7N9 (39.0%) [10-12].Due to the vast outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) across over 26countries and territories, resulting it to 51,857 confirmed infections and 1,669 deaths, with closely all infections and deaths occurring in the world. With respect to this high levels of global spread and the severity of COVID-19, the World Health Organization (WHO) proclaim it a public health emergency of world anxiety on 30

^th

January, 2020 and called for a joint efforts of all countries towards the prevention and quick recall of COVID-19 [14-15].Although the major ways of transmission have not been clearly stated but several reports from scientific studies, deducedit to be transmitted from human to human through straight contact with respiratory droplets of an infected person generated through coughing and sneezing.

Also, individuals can be infected through touching surfaces contaminated with the virus and touching their face (e.g., eyes, nose, mouth) [17-18]. The China center for disease and control (CCDC) estimates an incubation period of 3-14days, [16] the reproductive number (Ro) was said to be 2.2(95%)[19] this suggest that the rate of transmission is quite similar to SARs(Ro =2.3) and much different from MERS (Ro

= 0.7) but the main incubation period from different medical scientific review is 5.2 days with 95%transmissibility rate at 12.5 days that supports a total number of 14days as likely trace of contacts and feasible symptoms and also the pathogenicity for COVID-19 is estimated at 3% which is lower when compared to SARS-COV (10%) and MERS-COV (40%) [20]. In as much as this deadly novel COVID-19 continues to spread it is important that communities take actions to stop further transmission to lessen the impacts of

N

(2)

www.rsisinternational.org Page 90 the outbreak and support control measures, necessary

preventive measures such as the use of non-pharmaceutical countermeasures, Internal or external border closures, cancellation, prohibition and restriction of mass gatherings and smaller meetings, quarantine, self-isolation, extremely thorough and careful hand hygiene (i.e. washing of hands with detergent and water for at least 25 seconds, or if detergent and water are not available, cleaning hands with alcohol-based sanitizers or tissues respiratory etiquette), no use of face masks if you are not sick. The stay at home measures both physical and social distancing [21-22] have been taken to curb the capacity to spread COVID-19 however, care must also be taken to avoid the condemn of people who may or have not been protected from the virus. It is certain that people with mild symptoms may stay home, and those similar progressing severe respiratory symptoms should seek medical attention, ideally first by phone. Household contacts of a person firmly established to have COVID-19 should be quarantined for 14 days after their last contact with the case, while household contacts of a person with symptoms compatible with COVID- 19 should also be encouraged to quarantine at his resident for 14 days after the symptoms of the household contact may have been resolved. Risk groups, especially the elderly, with an indication of the compatible with COVID-19 should seek medical advice early, given the higher possibility of progression to severe disease. Furthermore, COVID-19 does

not recognize or ascertain between borders, ethnicities, disability status, age or gender and most especially the society should strive to abide by strict measures given by health sectors, virologist and relevant government agencies to stop the entry and further spread of COVID-19, while minimizing disruption and protecting the society at large.

II. METHODOLOGY 2.1 Data Collection

A systematic data collections was obtained from ECDC’s fifth Rapid Risk Assessment on COVID-19 (Annex 4) data-base as at the present dated 26

^th

march, 2020. The data collected included detailed studies related to dispersal cases of COVID- 19 by continent, (except China), epidemiological curves and maps showing the pattern of Geographical distribution and collective number of reported cases per 100,000 population of COVID-19 cases-worldwide. This data also specified the exact region, the places of reported cases, number of deaths and the number of person infected with this deadly nCov-19 within the last fifteen (15) days.

III. RESULTS

After several and adequate research from European council from Google we generated the following data.

3.1 Epidemiological Curves

Fig 1: Distribution of cases of COVID-19 by continent (according to the relevant case definition and testing strategies in the affected countries from 19^th December 2019- 26^th March 2020 [6].

Fig 2: The distribution of COVID-19 cases by continent (excluding china) as of 26^th March 2020 (according to the applied case definition and testing strategies in the affected countries) [6].

(3)

www.rsisinternational.org Page 91

Fig 3:Map showing Geographical distribution of COVID-19 cases-Worlwide as of 26^th March 2020 [6].

Fig 4: Geographic distribution of cumulative number of informed COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population, worldwide as of 26^th March 2020.

(4)

www.rsisinternational.org Page 92

Table 1: COVID-19 Report as of 26^th March 2020 [6].

Region Places reporting cases

Sum of Cases

Sum of Deaths

Confirmed cases in the last 15 days

Africa Algeria 264 17 244

Africa Angola 2 0 2

Africa Benin 5 0 5

Africa Burkina Faso 114 3 112

Africa Cameroon 72 1 70

Africa Cape Verde 4 1 4

Africa Central_African_Republic 4 0 4

Africa Chad 3 0 3

Africa Congo 4 0 4

Africa Cote divoire 80 0 80

Africa Democratic_Republic_of_th

e_congo 45 3 44

Africa Djibouti 12 0 12

Africa Egypt 442 21 383

Africa Equatorial Guinea 11 0 11

Africa Eritrea 4 0 12

Africa Eswatini 4 0 4

Africa Ethiopia 12 0 12

Africa Gabon 6 1 6

Africa Gambia 3 1 3

Africa Ghana 68 3 68

Africa Guinea 4 0 4

Africa Kenya 25 0 25

Africa Liberia 3 0 3

Africa Libya 1 0 1

Africa Madagascar 19 0 19

Africa Mali 2 0 2

Africa Mauritania 2 0 2

Africa Morocco 225 6 223

Africa Mozambique 5 0 5

Africa Namibia 4 0 4

Africa Niger 7 1 7

Africa Nigeria 51 1 49

Africa Rwanda 41 0 41

Africa Senegal 99 0 95

Africa Seychelles 7 0 7

Africa Somalia 1 0 1

Africa South Africa 709 0 702

Africa Sudan 3 1 3

Africa Togo 23 0 22

Africa Tunisia 173 5 168

Africa Uganda 14 0 14

Africa United Republic of

Tanzania 12 0 12

Africa Zambia 12 0 12

Africa Zimbabwe 3 1 3

America Antigua and Barbuda 3 0 3

America Argentina 502 8 483

America Aruba 19 0 19

America Bahamas 5 0 5

America Barbados 18 0 18

America Belize 2 0 2

America Bermuda 6 0 6

America Bolivia 39 0 39

America Brazil 2433 57 2399

America Canada 3385 35 3292

America Cayman Islands 3 1 3

America Chile 1142 3 1125

America Colombia 470 4 467

America Costa Rica 201 2 188

America Cuba 57 1 57

America Curacao 6 1 6

America Dominica 7 0 7

America Dominican Republic 392 10 387

America Ecuador 1211 29 1194

America El Salvador 13 0 13

America Greenland 5 0 5

America Grenada 1 0 1

America Guatemala 24 1 24

America Guyana 5 1 5

America Haiti 8 0 8

America Honduras 52 0 52

America Jamaica 25 1 25

America Mexico 405 5 398

America Montserrat 1 0 1

America Nicaragua 2 0 2

America Panama 443 6 436

America Paraguay 37 3 32

America Peru 558 8 547

America Saint kitts and Nevis 2 0 2

America Saint Lucia 3 0 3

America Saint Vincent and the

Grenadines 1 0 1

America Saint Maarten 2 0 1

America Suriname 8 0 8

(5)

www.rsisinternational.org Page 93

America Trinidad and Tobago 60 1 60

America Turks and Caicos Islands 1 0 1 America United States of America 69194 1050 68169 America United States Virgin Islands 17 0 17

America Uruguay 217 0 217

America Venezuela 106 0 217America

Asia Afghanistan 75 1 68

Asia Bahrain 419 3 309

Asia Bangladesh 39 5 36

Asia Bhutan 3 0 2

Asia Brunei Darussalam 107 0 106

Asia Cambodia 96 0 94

Asia China 81968 3293 1060

Asia India 649 13 599

Asia Indonesia 790 58 771

Asia Iran 27017 2077 18975

Asia Iraq 346 29 285

Asia Israel 2369 5 2299

Asia Japan 1268 45 700

Asia Jordan 153 0 152

Asia Kazakhstan 88 0 88

Asia Kuwait 195 0 126

Asia Kyrgyzstan 44 0 44

Asia Laos 2 0 2

Asia Lebanon 333 4 292

Asia Malaysia 1796 19 1667

Asia Maldives 13 0 7

Asia Mauritius 48 2 48

Asia Mongolia 10 0 9

Asia Myanmar 3 0 2

Asia Nepal 3 0 2

Asia Oman 99 0 81

Asia Pakistan 1057 8 1041

Asia Palestine 62 0 33

Asia Philippines 636 38 603

Asia Qatar 537 0 513

Asia Saudi Arabia 900 2 880

Asia Singapore 568 2 402

Asia South Korea 9241 131 1486

Asia Sri Lanka 102 0 101

Asia Syria 1 0 1

Asia Taiwan 235 2 187

Asia Thailand 1045 4 986

Asia Timor Leste 1 0 1

Asia Turkey 2433 59 2433

Asia United Arab Emirates 333 2 259

Asia Uzbekistan 65 0 65

Asia Vietnam 148 0 113

Europe Albania 146 5 136

Europe Andorra 188 0 187

Europe Armenia 290 0 289

Europe Austria 5888 34 5706

Europe Azerbaijan 93 2 82

Europe Belarus 86 0 77

Europe Belgium 4937 178 4670

Europe Bosnia and Herzegovina 181 3 179

Europe Bulgaria 242 3 238

Europe Croatia 418 1 405

Europe Cyprus 132 3 130

Europe Czech Republic 1654 6 1591

Europe Denmark 1724 34 1460

Europe Estonia 404 1 391

Europe Faroe Island 132 0 132

Europe Finland 880 3 840

Europe France 25233 1331 23449

Europe Georgia 73 0 50

Europe Germany 36508 198 35212

Europe Gibraltar 26 0 26

Europe Greece 821 22 731

Europe Guernesy 30 0 30

Europe Holy see 1 0 0

Europe Hungary 261 10 249

Europe Iceland 737 2 667

Europe Ireland 1564 9 1529

Europe Isle of Man 23 0 23

Europe Italy 74386 7505 64237

Europe Jersey 18 0 18

Europe Kosovo 71 1 71

Europe Latvia 221 0 213

Europe Liechtenstein 51 0 50

Europe Lithuania 274 4 271

Europe Luxembourg 1333 8 1326

Europe Malta 129 0 125

Europe Moldova149 149 1 146

Europe Monaco 31 0 30

Europe Montenegro 53 0 53

Europe Netherlands 6412 356 6030

Europe North Macedonia 177 2 170

(6)

www.rsisinternational.org Page 94

Europe Norway 2916 12 2639

Europe Poland 1051 14 1029

Europe Portugal 2995 43 2954

Europe Romania 906 13 881

Europe Russia 658 0 648

Europe San Marino 208 21 146

Europe Serbia 303 2 298

Europe Slovakia 216 0 209

Europe Slovenia 528 4 497

Europe Spain 47610 3434 45971

Europe Sweden 2510 42 2184

Europe Switzerland 9714 103 9224

Europe Ukraine 113 4 112

Europe United Kingdom 9529 422 9156

Oceania Australia 2423 8 2311

Oceania Fiji 5 0 5

Oceania French Polynesia 25 0 25

Oceania Guam 37 1 37

Oceania New Caledonia 14 0 14

Oceania New Zealand 283 0 278

Oceania Papua New Guinea 1 0 1

Oceania Other

Other Cases on an international

conveyance Japan 696 7 0

Total 467710 20947 348516

Source:ecdc.europa.edu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

IV. DISCUSSION

From the epidemiological curve as shown in

fig 1 and fig 2

the pattern of geographical distribution shows that European countries like Italy, Spain and the UK indicates an epidemic progression in relation to same curve observed in China in January and February. China recorded its highest case at 13

^th

February 2020 and from the curve it can be deduced that the increase slowly in china and by 13

^th

February reduced gradually till 2

^nd

ofMarch 2020, with exception to China, European countries records more cases since outbreak of the ensued deadly COVID-19, followed by America and Asia.

The epidemic curve increase of number of infected persons to 92,470 as of 26

^th

March 2020 in Italy and Spain has recorded 832 deaths as of 28

^th

March 2020, Africa has recorded 9,310 confirmed coronavirus cases and 49 related deaths across the continent and United Kingdom are currently affected as their own doubles every three days, United States of America has recorded 111,000 plus cases and 1,858 deaths and currently 649,000 total cases have affected coronavirus and 30,249 deaths Globally as of 26

^th

March 2020 and all available data specify that they are very rapidly moving toward, or are already experiencing, a scenario of continuous community spread of COVID-19.

V. CONCLUSION

We have understudied the outbreak of the deadly coronavirus (COVID-19) that first emanated from China and spread quickly across the globe, from the maps and epidemiological curves it was deduced in this study that the pattern of global distribution across these continent showed a progressive increase in the order of Europe, America, Asia, Africa and Oceania. Scientists have also made extensive progress in controlling the spread of the novel coronavirus, while solid data from more scientific trials are needed. However, queries remain unclear and more reports are urgently needed to explore more on the rate of transmission, development of vaccines and therapeutics to prevent further spread which provides the basis of future research. Given more than 80% of confirmed cases are reported. We sincerely hope that countries like Italy, Spain, UK and United State of America and other countries overcome the spread of this epidemic as fast as possible.

REFERENCES

[1] Cavanegh, D., Mawditt, K., WelchmanDdeB,Britton, P. and Cough, R. T (2002). Coronavirus from phexiat (phasianuscolchicus) are genetically closely related to coronaviruses of domestic and turkeys. Avian Pathol31: 81-93.

[2] Gorbalenya, A. E., Baker, S. C., Baric, R. S., de Groot, R. J., Drosten, C., Gulyaeva, A. A, et al. (2020). The species severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: classifying 2019- nCoV and naming it SARS-CoV-2. Nature Microbiology.5:536- 544

[3] European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), (2020). Guidelines for the use of non-pharmaceutical measures to delay and mitigate the impact of 2019-nCoV 2020.

[4] European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): increased transmission globally – fifth update Stockholm: ECDC; 2020 [cited 20 March 2020]. Available from:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA- outbreak-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-increasetransmission- globally-COVID-19.pdf

[5] Perris, J. S, Chu, C. M, Cheng, V. C, Chan, K. S., Hung, I. F., Poon, L. L. and Law, K. I. (2020). Religions of predicted RNA secondary structure.J viral71: 6183-6190.

[6] Chen, H., Guo, J., Wang, C., Luo, F., Yu, X., Zhang, W., et al.

(2020). Clinical characteristics and intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection in nine pregnant women: a retrospective review of medical records. Lancet.

7;395(10226):809-15.

[7] Guan, W.J., Ni, Z. Y., Hu, Y., Liang, W. H., Ou, C. Q., He, J. X., et al. (2019). Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. TheNew England Journal of Medicine.

[8] Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., et al.

(2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. The Lancet, 395(10223): 497-507.

[9] European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic: increased transmission in the EU/EEA and the UK – sixth update 2020 [cited 20 March 2020]. Available from:

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA- sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019- COVID-19.pdf

[10] Chen, J. (2020). Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-ncov- a quick reviewed comparison with other emerging viruses.

Microbes and infections. 22(2):69-71

[11] World Health Organization. (2020). WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 11 March

(7)

www.rsisinternational.org Page 95

2020: WHO; 2020 [cited 2020]. Available from:

https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s- openingremarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---11-march- 2020

[12] Chen, H., Guo, J., Wang, C., Luo, F., Yu, X., Zhang, W., et al.

(2020). Clinical characteristics and intrauterine vertical transmission potential of COVID-19 infection in nine pregnant women: a retrospective review of medical records. Lancet.

7;395(10226):809-15.

[13] Guan, W. J, Ni, Z. Y, Hu, Y., Liang, W. H, Ou, C. Q., He, J. X., et al. (2020). Clinical Characteristics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in China. TheNew England Journal of Medicine.

[14] Huang, C., Wang, Y., Li, X., Ren, L., Zhao, J., Hu, Y., et al.

(2020). Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China. Lancet.15; 395(10223):497-506.

[15] European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

Resource estimation for contact tracing, quarantine and monitoring activities for COVID-19 cases in the EU/EEA. Stockholm:

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2020.

[16] Leung, W. K., To, K. F., Chan, P. K, Chan, H. L., Wu, A. K, Lee, N., Yuen, K. Y. and Sung, J. J. (2003). Enteric involvement of severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated corona virus infection. Gastroenterology125: 1011-1017.

[17] Nie, Q. H., Luo, X. D., Zhang, J. Z. and Su, Q. (2003). Current status of severe acute respiratory syndrome in china world.J Gasroenteral9: 1635-1645.

[18] Both, A. M., Kuster, J. G, Van Noort, J. M., Zwaagstra, K. A., Rijke, E., Vander Zeijst, B. A. and Hensen, E. J. (1991).

Localization of a T-cell epitope within the nucleus capsid protein of avian corona virus. Immunology74: 8-13.

[19] Lee, N., Hui, D., Wu, A., Chen, P., Cameroon, P., Joynt, G. M, Buja, A., Yung, M. Y., Leung, C. B., T. KF, Lui, S. F., Szeto, C.

C., Chung, S. and Sung, J. J. (2003). A major outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndromes in Hong Kong.N Engl J med348:

1986-1994.

[20] Tsui, P. T., Kwok, M. L., Yuen, H., Lai, S. T. (2003). Severe acute respiratory syndrome: clinical outcome and prognostic correlation.

Emerg infection disease9: 1064-1069.

[21] Li, Q., Guan, X., Wu, P., Wang, X., Zhou, L. and Tong, Y. (2020).

Early Transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China of Novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. The new England Journal of medicine.

[22] Zhong, N. S., Zheng, B. J., Li, Y. M., Poon, L. L. M., Xie, Z. H., Chan, K. H., Li, P. H., Tan, S. Y., Chang, Q. and Xie, J. P. (2003).

Epidemiology and cause of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Quandong; People’s Republic of China in February 2003, Lancet, 362: 1353-1358.