Human Resources for
Sustainable Development:
Population, Education and Health
Wolfgang Lutz
IIASA Conference, 24 October 2012
World Population from the year 1000 to 2100
0 2 , 0 0 0 4 , 0 0 0 6 , 0 0 0 8 , 0 0 0 1 0 , 0 0 0 1 2 , 0 0 0 1 4 , 0 0 0
1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 0 0 2 0 0 0
Y E A R
WORLD POPULATION (IN MILLIONS)
95 percent
Source: Lutz et al. (Nature 451:716-719, 2008)
95 percent
Source: Lutz et al. (Nature 451:716-719, 2008)
95 percent
Source: Lutz et al. (Nature 451:716-719, 2008)
Probabilistic Population Pyramid
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
2050 2045 2040 2035 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 1950
females 1945
0.0 1.0
2.0 3.0
4.0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105
European Union, 2050
Population (millions)
males
Age Period of Birth
Sergei's DELL PIII, file: C:\Sergei\Current\Run\2002\EU\[make_pyramid_to_file2_EU2.xls],21-May-02 14:36
95 percent
80 percent
Is there a Limit to
Human Life Expectancy?
Oeppen und Vaupel 2002
Human Capital =
= The Human Resource Base for Sustainable Development
= Population x Education x Health
• Education:
• Formal Education
• Mean years of schooling
• Distribution by highest educational attainment
formal
informal
quantity quality content
Education Flows – Policy variable
Education Stocks – Change very slowly due
to great momentum
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in thousands
A g e (y e a rs )
Republic of Korea-1960
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
24,766,151
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400 0-4
5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in thousands
A g e (y e a rs )
Republic of Korea-1965
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
28,653,294
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-1970
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
31,439,846
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-1975
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
34,721,379
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-1980
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
37,459,355
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-1985
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
40,504,730
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-1990
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
42,982,851
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-1995
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
44,651,208
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-2000
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
46,429,319
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-2010
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
48,492,348
FEMALES
MALES
2400 1600 800 0 800 1600 2400
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90-94 95-99 100+
Population in Thousands
A g e G ro u p
Republic of Korea-2020
No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary Total Population :
49,486,000
FEMALES
MALES
Assuming identical education-specific fertility trends different education
scenarios make a difference of more than 1 billion people by 2050.
• CEN gives the world population trend according to the most pessimistic scenario assuming that no new schools will be built
• FT gives the most optimistic scenario
assuming that countries can achieve
the rapid education expansion that
South Korea achieved
Education Reduces Vulnerability to Natural Disaster and Enhances Adaptive Capacity
Source: Total number of deaths (1980 – 2010) is from the Emergency Events Database (EM-
DAT) at the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED).
In the Context of IPCC and IAMs the Research Community has Recently Agreed to the Definition
of "Shared Socioeconomic Pathways" (SSP)
Socio-economic challenges for adaptation
S o c io -e c o n o m ic c h a ll e n g e s f o r m it ig a ti o n
(Low Challenges)
Sustainability
(High Challenges)
Fragmentation
(Adapt.Challenges Dominate)
Inequality
(Mit. Challenges Dominate)
Conventional Development
(Intermediate Challenges)
Middle of the Road
SSP Element Quantifications (e.g., India)
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
1950 2000 2050 2100
P o p u a ti o n ( M il li o n s)
Year
Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1950 2000 2050 2100
U rb a n iz a ti o n ( % )
Year
Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
(IIASA) (NCAR)
Population,
Education Urbanization GDP
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000
1950 2000 2050 2100
G D P ( B il li o n U S $ )
Year
Historical SSP1 SSP2 SSP3 SSP4 SSP5
