Munich Personal RePEc Archive
The performance of four possible rules for selecting the Prime Minister after the Dutch Parliamentary elections of June 2010
Colignatus, Thomas
Thomas Cool Consultancy Econometrics
11 June 2010
Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/23240/
MPRA Paper No. 23240, posted 12 Jun 2010 11:14 UTC
! "
#$ %" &&
' ( ) (* * * * ( * * *
(
# ( ( + ,
( ( - . ( ) / - + 0
, ( ) ( ( , - ,
1 1 2 3 ) ! - ) / ,
- 4 ( 5 ( - ) /
- - - - - ,
- % ) ( ( ( ' 67
4 8" 9 - ( --
+ 0 - ) ( , ( - , --
- , 6: - :9 ; ( ( ) / 6:- :9 <
8 % ) ( = ) - > ( ? -
, 5 ) / <- ) /
( ) ( - ( 5
( , ( ) / 0 , 6 "9 :@ (
- % (: , : : )
( 5 - - ) /
- - ( - ) /
- - ) ( , < (
) / 1 1 2 3 )
A - , ( )
) ( -- - ,
, ( ! 6 9 :% : 3 - 1 2 3 )
+ - ! :+ 5 ( + , : -
, - - - % , (
2 - ( + 1 5
B 6> 9 % 6 9 @@% 6= 9 - ( ( 5 ( B %
@@% C , , 6 ( 9 (
- )@@ 6 D9 ( ( 5 ( , C
- ) / - ,
) ( , - @@%
+ , B
0 , , ( + ( ,
; 3 1 ( - - 5 5 * -
- 1
, , ( 5 ( 1 2 3 ) 6 "9 ,
-- - 1
2 1 2 3 ) B B
( - B ( > ) - > (
@@% - , 6= 9 ( , 5
- - ( - ( -
- ) / 5 - ,
) , 4 . ( B - - B % ), %EE F$
. ( - "E - > @@% - - @@% % )@@ . ( - "E .
-- , ( - , , C
% % 5 - D 5 ( +- ( - -
( - - @@% ), %EE F$ 5 ( @@% )
/ ( - - - (
- - - - ) /
3 , @@% -- ( , ( < ( 5
(
)/ ( - 5 ( - 88 E?
- , 7<! 6 9 - - , - -
C - >
)/ ( - E 6 E9 , 6 B9 ) / - 1 5
6 % 9 , ) ( %
)/ = - B ' 7 E - 6 9
688 E? - , 9
% B >
%EE F$
), = ), %
)@@ D
!F)
!) >
@@% =
! = " @
% B %EE F$ ), ), % )@@ !F) !) @@%
#$!% &' ! = () * !
+ = @ ,
#$!% &' = () * +
, - -
= + +
"
> = > > > ">
D
> ">
=
>
% #- $( .
D = " " E
$ /$
%
- - - - , 3 0 ,
) ( /
; ( - - ) / # (
/ - ) - - -
3 ( ( , / - )
) ( , ( +
671 , 4 - ( (
0 ,
, - 5 ( 9
+ , ) 3 - $ 5 6+ (
, 9 + , ( + ( -
(
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
- 1 - -
' (0 = '1 1 ' @@ ' . @ !
8 E = " D > &
8 E " = & > D
= 8 " & > D E
D 8 > " E & =
D 8 " & > E =
D 8 & " > E =
" 8 = E > D &
& 8 = " > D E
D 8 E & " > =
8 & > D " E =
F , , 1 2 3 ) - 3
- 6 , - , 5 9
2 "
B
1 (
2 ( +3 #
! B 1 2)G
A E > EE" " =& > DD > &&EE" > "EEE" > 8DEE" = > EE" = EEE" > E E
) <
= EEE" !F)
= > EE" )@@
> E !)
> DD %EE
> "EEE" ),
> &&EE" F$
> 8DEE" ), %
E @@%
E > EE" %
" =& B
B 6 , 9 ( , , 1 , 6 (9 - %
61 5 @ 9 % - B 5 B
- @@% 6 9 ( -
6 8> 9 - , 3 0 3
( - ( (
3 - - 0 5 -- +
( 5 ( ( 0 ,
- 3 2 3 5 ( - - H 3 ; (
5 A 5 ,
2 , - ( 5
2 5 3 - - , , 3 -
5 A H ( - ( ,
- , ( , - + 1 2 3 ) 5 ( ( (
, , ( 5 ! 6 "9 -
0 , - - , )/ , , (
6 >9
! " ! #
+ B C - ,
,
1
4 5 6 3
@ / @ /
=
">
&
">
&
">
&
">
&
">
"
>
"=
">
&
"> >
=
">
=D
">
=D
">
D
">
D
>
D
>
D
>
8
">
DD
">
&
">
=D
">
&
">
=
"> ">
D8
">
=
"> ">
&
">
&
">
=D
">
&
">
D
"> >
E
>
DD
">
=D
"> >
&
">
D
">
=
">
D
"> >
E
>
=
"> "> >
&
">
D
> "> > >
"
>
E&
"> >
E
">
"
>
D
>
D8
">
E
>
E
>
"
>
D
>
E
>
"
>
"=
">
D
>
=
">
DD
">
=
">
E&
">
D
>
DD
">
E&
">
&
">
8
"> ">
=D
"> "> >
E
>
DD
">
=
">
>
DD
">
&
"> > >
E
">
"
>
E&
">
=
">
! G % ! & 8 = > D > = " / 3 8 B
) - ) - )@@ !F) %EE F$ ), ), % !) @@% % B 2 B
$ ( 2 ! B ! >
">
8D
>
=
>
>&
">
&
>
E"
">
8E
">
"=
> >
=E
>
) - ) - !F) )@@ !) %EE ), F$ ), % @@% % B ! B B
! " ! #
) ( , C > ? , - 0
@@% 6 9 ( ? > ?
+$ + 3
!
% "
>
B =
%EE >
F$ >
), >
), % ">
)@@ D
>
!F) ">
!)
@@% =
>
<
"> ), %
"> !F)
= B
> %EE
> F$
!)
"
> %
D
> )@@
> ),
=
> @@%
/ 3 @@%
=
> !
% #
!
% D
B ======
%EE EEEEE"
F$ EEEEE"
),
), % =====
)@@ E
!F) =====
!)
@@% EEE"
<
===== ), %
===== !F)
====== B
EEEEE" %EE EEEEE" F$
!)
D %
E )@@
), EEE" @@%
/ 3 @@% EEE" !
! " $% $
- 3 - B - - % ,
( - - B
, D> - , - / - )
- 6 , 9 - ,
1 ( 1 2 3 ) 5 - 5
+ 0 ' (0
7 - @ 7 - @ ,
) - - - @ + ( - < ) - ,
) - = + % B @
"
> = > > > ">
D
> ">
=
>
+$ + 3
!
% E
">
B D8
">
<
E
"> %
D8
"> B
/ 3 B D8
"> ! B
! " $% &&
! @@% - , ( ) /
0 , - , ,
+ 0 ' (0 ,
+$ + 3
!
B "
=
@@% =
=
<
=
= @@%
"
= B
/ 3 B "
= ! B
$
% , - +
-( - ) / ( ;
( -- , - @@% = 1 2 3
) - B > ) > , ( - C
6 - 9 5 ( ,
, , ( 5
- ) / , - 4 5
-( , ( 2 ; ( : : ( (
, ) / - , (
- ) / ( + , -
- -
-
, 0 . ( ) / ) (
- - ) ) /
6 ( 1 2 3 ) 9
" ' # ! #
! , , - ( ,
@@% , B B %
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' (0 = '1 1 ' @@ ' . @ !
8 E = " D > &
8 E " = & > D
= > & 8 E D "
D > E & " 8 =
D > & 8 E " =
D " 8 & > E =
" & = E > D 8
& 8 = " > D E
D > " 8 & E =
8 & > D " E =
2 "
! "# " "
%
2 ( +3 #
! % 1 2)G
A E > EE" > DE > & E EEE" E E =& = > EE" = EEE" > > EE" E DDEE"
) <
= EEE" !F)
= > EE" )@@
> DE B
> > EE" !)
> & %EE
E ),
E EEE" F$
E =& ), % E DDEE" @@%
E > EE" %
0 , @@% , , ( ( B
- B 6+- (
( 3 9
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' 1&# = 1&# > > > > > > > > > > ,
' = > > > > > > > > > ,
' (0 = '1 1 ' @@ ' . @ !
8 E = " D > &
8 E " = & > D
= 8 " & > D E
D 8 > " E & =
D 8 " & > E =
D 8 & " > E =
" 8 = E > D &
& 8 = " > D E
D 8 E & " > =
8 & > D " E =
2 "
B
2 ( +3 #
! B 1 2)G
A E > EE" " =& > DD > &&EE" > "EEE" > 8DEE" = > EE" = EEE" > E E
) <
= EEE" !F)
= > EE" )@@
> E !)
> DD %EE
> "EEE" ),
> &&EE" F$
> 8DEE" ), %
E @@%
E > EE" %
" =& B