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International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software
8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software - Toulouse, France - July 2016
Jul 11th, 9:30 AM - 9:50 AM
A Scalable Approach to Modelling Health Impacts of Air Pollution Based on Globally Available Data
Gregor Kiesewetter
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program, kiesewet@iiasa.ac.at
Wolfgang Schöpp
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program
Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program
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Gregor Kiesewetter, Wolfgang Schöpp, and Markus Amann, "A Scalable Approach to Modelling Health Impacts of Air Pollution Based on Globally Available Data" ( July 11, 2016).International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software.Paper 80.
http://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/iemssconference/2016/Stream-A/80
International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software Toulouse, France, Sabine Sauvage, José-Miguel Sánchez-Pérez, Andrea Rizzoli (Eds.) http://www.iemss.org/society/index.php/iemss-2016-proceedings
A Scalable Approach to Modelling Health Impacts of Air Pollution Based on Globally Available Data
Gregor Kiesewetter, Wolfgang Schöpp, and Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
kiesewet@iiasa.ac.at
Abstract: Integrated assessment of air pollution and its impacts typically requires pre-calculated atmospheric transfer relations on a fine spatial resolution. While such concepts have been applied successfully for Europe and other regions with high data coverage, extending calculations to world regions with low local data availability is challenging and needs to be based on globally available data sets. Here we introduce a scalable approach which has been developed to expand the calculations of health impacts from exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model to (almost) any desired region on the globe, depending on actual requirements for policy analysis. We use global sensitivity simulations of the EMEP atmospheric chemistry transport model to derive linear transfer coefficients at a resolution of 0.5 degrees. A major challenge lies in the realistic representation of inner urban PM2.5
concentrations, which depend to a large extent on local pollution sources on scales below grid resolution. We derive sub-grid concentration increments from emission densities of primary PM from low-level sources, based on (almost) globally available gridded population data with approximately 100m resolution. From ambient PM2.5 concentrations, increased risk of mortality is then calculated following the methodology of the Global Burden of Disease studies. We have implemented and validated the described approach for India, China, and Indonesia, with extensions to other G-20 member countries underway. Health impact projections under different energy policy scenarios are discussed. Due to the inherent treatment of urban areas, the effects of urbanization trends are captured explicitly, which lead to higher average population exposure as people move into polluted cities.
Keywords: particulate matter PM2.5; ambient air pollution; health impacts; downscaling
