Nt i Ei i Negative Emissions Negative Emissions BECCS Case Studies for E urope South K orea Japan and Russia BECCS Case Studies for E urope, South K orea, Japan and Russia BECCS Case Studies for Europe, South Korea, Japan and Russia
KraxnerF¹*LeducS¹KindermannG¹AokiK¹²FussS¹YangJ³YamagataY¹³IlTakK4 SchepaschenkoD¹ShvidenkoA15 AlbrechtF¹andObersteinerM¹Kraxner F.¹*, Leduc S.¹, Kindermann G.¹, Aoki K.¹, ², Fuss S.¹, Yang J.³, Yamagata Y. ¹, ³, Il TakK.4 , SchepaschenkoD.¹, ShvidenkoA.1,5 , Albrecht F.¹ and Obersteiner M.¹ ¹EcosystemsServicesandManagementProgram(ESM)InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA)LaxenburgAustria Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria 2 Rural and Renewable Energy Unit, Energy and Climate Change Branch, United Nations Industrial Development Organisation(UNIDO), Vienna, Austria 3 Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, JapanCenter for Global Environmental Research (CGER), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan 4Forest ResourcesDepartment, College of Forest Science, KookminUniversity (KMU), Seoul, Republic of Korea 5SukachevInstitute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch, Krasnoyarsk, Russian Federationyy * For questions please contact the corresponding author Florian Kraxner: Tel: +43 2236 807 233, Fax: +43 2236 807 299, E-mail: kraxner@iiasa.ac.atBk d d Mh d l Background and Methodology
TheuseofbioenergyEuropeplantsbiomass usedheatelectricityTotal energyCO2saved incombinationwithcarboncaptureandstorage(BECCS)couldmakeap Scenario (%of substantialcontributiontoachievinglowatmosphericCO2concentration leelsTheForthAssessmentReportoftheIntergoernmentalPanelon(% of 20-20-20 target)Total #GJ/yeartdm/yearGJ/yearGJ/yearGJ/yeart_CO2/yr levels.TheFourthAssessmentReportoftheIntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange(IPCC)considersBECCSas"apotentialrapid-response
target) c ( 45%)3324,703,707,678254,254,4692,824,580,0001,552,223,5344,376,803,534507,705,427 ClimateChange(IPCC)considersBECCSasapotentialrapid-response preventionstrategyforabruptclimatechange"andthusasoneofthe
c(5%)33,03,0,685,5,69,8,580,000,55,3,53,36,803,5350,05, d(55%)4345440188728294064256341066000017952622805205922280593357853preventionstrategyforabruptclimatechangeandthusasoneofthe optionsforachievingcompliancewiththetargetsagreedundertheKyoto
d (55%)4345,440,188,728294,064,2563,410,660,0001,795,262,2805,205,922,280593,357,853 e(62%)5528125200000439200000446886000026813160007150176000751449670pgpggy Protocol.Theobjectiveofthepresentedcasestudiesistoanalyzetheine (62%)5528,125,200,000439,200,0004,468,860,0002,681,316,0007,150,176,000751,449,670 situBECCScapacityforgreen-fieldbioenergyplantsinfourdifferent iEJKdRiThthiltiMW Scenarios South Korea1050100 NmberofPlants50105regions–Europe,Japan,KoreaandRussia.Thetechnicalassessmentis usedtosupportapolicydiscussiononthesuitabilityofBECCSasa
Number of Plants50105 Biomassused(tdm/year)554125487957487957 usedtosupportapolicydiscussiononthesuitabilityofBECCSasa mitigationtool.Weexaminedthetechnicalpotentialofbioenergy NoCCS
Biomass used (tdm/year)554,125487,957487,957 Heat produced (GJ/year)6,613,7506,613,7506,613,750 mitigationtool.Weexaminedthetechnicalpotentialofbioenergy productionfromsustainablygrownregionalforestbiomass.Inafirststep,NoCCS Power produced (GJ/year)4,208,7504,208,7504,208,750 pyggp IIASA’sbiophysicalGlobalForestryModel(G4M)wasappliedtoestimateSubst. emissions (tCO2/year)1,214,5251,214,5251,214,525 CCSCapacity(tCO2/year)000CCS Capacity (tCO2/year)000 NumberofPlants1110biomassavailability.Inasecondstep,theresultsfromG4MwereusedasinputdatatoIIASA’sengineeringmodel BWhhihtiilidltifldhtdlt(CHP)ThhillliitNumber of Plants1110 Biomass used (tdm/year)630,957552,957487,957BeWhere,whichoptimizesscalingandlocationofcoupledheatandpowerplants(CHP).Thegeographicallyexplicit locationsandcapacitiesobtainedforforestbasedbioenergyplantswerethenoverlaidwithageologicalsuitabilitymapfor BECCSHeat produced (GJ/year)8,068,7757,275,1256,613,750 Pdd(GJ/)513467546296254208750locationsandcapacitiesobtainedforforest-basedbioenergyplantswerethenoverlaidwithageologicalsuitabilitymapfor carbonstorage(seemapsinthecenteroftheposter)FromthisatheoreticalpotentialforinsituBECCSwasderived BECCSPower produced (GJ/year)5,134,6754,629,6254,208,750 Substemissions(tCO2/year)132034051190475010822500carbonstorage(seemapsinthecenteroftheposter).Fromthis,atheoreticalpotentialforinsituBECCSwasderived (displayedintheregionaltablesontheright). Subst. emissions (tCO2/year)13,203,40511,904,75010,822,500(pygg)
Europe
BECCSusingCHPtechnologymightcontributesubstantiallytoreachingthe20-20-20targetsofthe CCS Capacity (tCO2/year)1,481,7211,335,9781,214,525Europe
BECCS,usingCHPtechnology,mightcontributesubstantiallytoreachingthe202020targetsofthe EuropeanUnion(i.e.,generating20percentofthetotalenergydemandfromrenewablesandreducetotalEUemissionsby MW Scenarios Japan52070EuropeanUnion(i.e.,generating20percentofthetotalenergydemandfromrenewablesandreducetotalEUemissionsby 20percentuntil2020,calculatedfroma1990baseline).Bioenergyproduction(fromgreenfieldCHPplants)hasthep Number of Plants18298p)gyp(gp) technicalpotentialtocontributemorethan60percenttowardachievingthegoalof20percentrenewableenergysharein Biomass used (tdm/year)117,000716,300712,400theEUby2020.Whenassuminginsitustorageatthelocationofthebioenergyplants,abouthalfofthe“carbon-neutral ii”fthbiltldbtdtddtdftiii() NoCCSHeat produced (GJ/year)1,190,4757,288,3537,248,670 Powerproduced(GJ/year)75757546380434612790emissions”fromthesebioenergyplantscouldbecaptured,stored,andaccountedforasnegativeemissions(seemap).K
Power produced (GJ/year)757,5754,638,0434,612,790 Substemissions(tCO2/year)215516627050625036Korea
AlthoughthegeologicalformationssuitableforinsituCarbonStorage(CS)inSouthKoreaarelimited,the theoreticalpotentialforbetween3(70MWplants)and11(5or20MWplants)green- fieldBECCSplantsithinsitCSBasedonorassmptionstheBECCSeffectSubst. emissions (tCO2/year)215,516627,050625,036 CCS Capacity (tCO2/year)000 fieldBECCSplantswithinsituCS.Basedonourassumptions,theBECCSeffect couldremove130000–240000tonsofCOperyearfromtheatmosphereanda
py(y) Number of Plants11113 couldremove130,000–240,000tonsofCO 2peryearfromtheatmosphere,anda similaramountcouldbesubstitutedforfossilfuelemissions.ThismeansthataboutBiomass used (tdm/year)71,500271,700267,150 similaramountcouldbesubstitutedforfossilfuelemissions.Thismeansthatabout 3–4%ofthetotaldemandforheatenergyinSouthKoreacouldbeproducedinBECCSHeat produced (GJ/year)727,5132,764,5482,718,251 Pdd(GJ/)46296317592581729796gyp BECCSplantswithinsituCS.Asaresult,3–4%offossilfuelemissionscouldbePower produced (GJ/year)462,9631,759,2581,729,796 Substemissions(tCO2/year)131704237847234389 substitutedandadditionallyaccountedforasnegative.ThisBECCSeffectisin ddititthltilbibfit(ldltt)
Subst. emissions (tCO2/year)131,704237,847234,389 CCSCapacity(tCO2/year)2.103.225.73 additiontothemultiplebiomassco-benefits(greeneconomy,ruraldevelopmentetc.) andcouldbeusedasonekeyissueforfuturepolicydesignanddecisionmaking
CCS Capacity (tCO2/year)2.103.225.73 andcouldbeusedasonekeyissueforfuturepolicydesignanddecisionmaking.
Japan
Th10MWitdttffthbttidMW Scenarios Russia10205010020/50/100 NumberofPlants786541205/1/12
Japan
The10MWscenarioturnedouttoofferthebestcountry-widecoverage withits61greenfieldbioenergyfacilitieswhichconsequentlycouldprovidedirectNumber of Plants786541205/1/12 Biomass used (Mtdm/year)1.131.753.183.831.76 withits61green-fieldbioenergyfacilities,whichconsequentlycouldprovidedirect andindirectco-benefitssuchasdrivingthegreeneconomyieprovidingjobNoCCS
(y) Heat produced (PJ/year)11.4617.7932.3538.9917.86 andindirectco-benefitssuchasdrivingthegreeneconomy,i.e.providingjob opportunitiesbothatthefacilityandinthebiomassproduction.ThereisatheoreticalPower produced (PJ/year)7.2911.3220.5924.8111.36 opportunitiesbothatthefacilityandinthebiomassproduction.Thereisatheoretical potentialfor1(50MWplants)to10(10MWplants)green-fieldBECCSplantswithEmission savings from CHP (MtCO2/year)1.883.084.604.182.86 NumberofPlants876851343/8/20()()g Number of Plants876851343/8/20 Biomass used (Mtdm/year)1.001.622.352.213.20in-situCS.TheBECCS-effectmightamountto1,3–1,5milliontonsCO 2 BECCS
(y) Heat produced (PJ/year)11.4217.5331.1938.7032.54peryearinadditiontoanamountof12-13milliontonsCO 2peryear substitutedfossilfuelemissionsBECCS Power produced (PJ/year)7.2711.1519.8524.6320.71substitutedfossilfuelemissions.
Rs si a
Emission savings from CCS (MtCO2/year)0.981.592.302.163.13 EmissionsavingsfromCHP(MtCO2/year)210322573711522Russia
The50MWscenariowouldbeacompromisebetween hidldhiflffTh100MWEmission savings from CHP (MtCO2/year)2.103.225.737.115.22 reachingde-centralareasandtheeconomiesofscaleeffect.The100MW scenariofeaturesstillagooddistributionoverthecountryHowevergivenscenariofeaturesstillagooddistributionoverthecountry.However,given itsbigsizetheplantsaremoresuitableclosetobigcitiesandindustrialitsbigsize,theplantsaremoresuitableclosetobigcitiesandindustrial zones(Siberia).Totalemissionreductions(directsubstitutionoffossilfuelszones(Siberia).Totalemissionreductions(directsubstitutionoffossilfuels plusthenegativeemissionseffectoftheBECCSplant)waslowestwiththe low-capacityscenarioandareincreasingwiththeplantcapacityreachinga Omaximumofsome13.5MtCO2/year.Themixedcapacityscenarioshowed the3rdhighestemissionreductionwhileitfeaturedtherelativehighestthe3rdhighestemissionreductionwhileitfeaturedtherelativehighest emissionsavingseffectthroughitsBECCSplants Key References:Kraxner F, NordströmE-M, Havlik P, et al. (in press). Global Bioenergy Scenarios -Future Forest Development, Land-Use Implications, and Trade-Offs. Biomass and Bioenergy (issue forthcoming)emissionsavingseffectthroughitsBECCSplants. y Azar C, Lindgren K, Obersteiner M, RiahiK, van VuurenDP, den ElzenMGJ, MöllerstenK, Larson ED (2010). The feasibility of low CO2 concentration targets and the role of bio-energy carbon-capture and storage. Climatic Change 100(1):195–202. Kraxner F, Nilsson S, Obersteiner M, Negative emissions from BioEnergyuse, carbon capture and sequestration (BECS)—the case of biomass production by sustainable forest management from semi-natural temperate forests. Biomass Bioenerg24 (2003) 285 –296,,,(p)gyp,p,gy(g) Kraxner F, Leduc S, Aoki K, Fuss S, Obersteiner M, SchepaschenkoD, ShvidenkoA (2011). Forest-based bioenergy in the Eurasian context. Boreal Forests in a Changing World: Challenges and Needs for Action. Proceedings of the international conference IBFRA, SukachevInstitute of Forest SB RAS, 15-21 August 2011, Krasnoyarsk, Russia.,,,ggy,pq()pygpg() Kraxner F, Kindermann G, Leduc S, Aoki K, Obersteiner M. Bioenergy Use for Negative Emissions—Potentials for Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) from a Global Forest Model Combined with Optimized Siting and Scaling of Bioenergy Plants in Europe. Paper presented at the First International Workshop on Biomass & Carbon Capture and Storage, October 2010, University of Orléans, France; http://www.univ-orleans.fr/leo/bccs/index.phpKraxner F, Aoki K, Leduc S, Fuss S, Kindermann G, SchepaschenkoD, ShvidenkoA, Obersteiner M (2012). Negative Emission Through Bioenergy –A Geographically Explicit BECCS Study on Russia. Paper presentedat the 4th International Conference on Applied Energy “Energy Solutions for a Sustainable World”, 5-8 July 2012, Suzhou, China. Kraxner F, Aoki K, Leduc S, Kindermann G, Fuss S, Kinoshita T, Yang J, Yamagata Y, Obersteiner M. BECCS in Japan –The Potential of Negative Emissions from Bioenergy Paper presented at the 2nd Biomass & Carbon Capture and Storage (Bio-CCS) Workshop, 25-26 October 2011, Cardiff University, Wales, UK; http://www.cugtrc.co.uk/categories.html?cid=55LemoineD M, Fuss S, Szolgayova J, Obersteiner M, KammenD M. The influence of negative emission technologies and technology policies on the optimal climate mitigation portfolio, Climatic Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0269-4, (2011) 1-22. Obersteiner M, Azar Ch, KauppiP, MöllerstenK, Moreira J, Nilsson S, Read P, RiahiK, SchlamadingerB, Yamagata Y, Yan J, van YperseleJ-P, Managing climate risk, Science 294(5543) (2001) 786–787. Kraxner F, Aoki K, Leduc S, Kindermann G, Yang J, Yamagata Y, Il TakK, Obersteiner M. BECCS in South Korea –An Analysis of Negative Emissions Potential for Bioenergy as a Mitigation Tool. Proceedings of the World Renewable Energy Congress (WREC), 8–13 May, 2011, Linköping, Sweden; Linköping University Electronic Press, LinköpingsUniversitet; ISBN: 978-91-7393-070-3; pp: 676-683.
ppggpgg()() Acknowledgements: Theauthorswouldliketothank:EC'sFP7GAn°212535CC-TAME(ClimateChange–TerrestrialAdaptationandMitigationinEurope)wwwcctameeu;BIOMASSFUTURESproject(wwwbiomassfutureseu)fundedbytheEC’sIntelligentEnergyProgrammeGAn°IEE08 Kraxner, F., Aoki, K., Leduc, S., Kindermann, G., Fuss, S., Yang, J., Yamagata, Y., Il Tak, K. and Obersteiner, M. (in press), BECCS in South Korea -An analysis of negative emissions potential for bioenergy as a mitigation tool. Renewable Energy (issue forthcoming). Kraxner F, Fuss S (eds.), Proceedings, IEA/IIASA BECCS Experts Workshop, 3-4 November 2011, Laxenburg, Austria; http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/workshops/workshop/name,28877,en.html
The authors would like to thank: ECs FP7, GA n212535, CC-TAME(Climate Change –Terrestrial Adaptation and Mitigation in Europe ), www.cctame.eu;BIOMASS FUTURES project (www.biomassfutures.eu), funded by the ECs Intelligent Energy Programme, GA nIEE08 653 SI2. 529 241; Ecosystems Services and Management Program (ESM) at the International Research Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (CGER / NIES), International Research NGO Global Alpine Synergies (GAS, www.global-syn.org), Austria, for their dedicated support to carry out this research.
