The Demographic Situation and Problems of the Old Population in Hungary

NOT FOR QUOTATION WITHOUT PERMISSION OF THE AUTHOR

THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND PROBLEMS OF THE OLD POPULATION I N HUNGARY

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A n d r a s K l i n g e r C h i e f

P o p u l a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s D e p a r t m e n t H u n g a r i a n C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e

November 1 9 8 3 CP-83-55

S e l e c t e d p a p e r s f r o m a S c i e n t i f i c C o n f e r e n c e h e l d i n B u d a p e s t ,

20-21 A p r i l 1 9 8 2 .

C o Z Z a b o r a t i v e P a p e r s r e p o r t work w h i c h h a s n o t b e e n p e r f o r m e d s o l e l y a t t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p p l i e d S y s t e m s A n a l y s i s a n d w h i c h h a s r e c e i v e d o n l y

l i m i t e d review. V i e w s o r o p i n i o n s e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t t h o s e o f t h e I n s t i t u t e , i t s N a t i o n a l Member O r g a n i z a t i o n s , o r o t h e r o r g a n i - z a t i o n s s u p p o r t i n g t h e work.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a

FOREWORD

Low f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s i n IIASA c o u n t r i e s a r e c r e a t i n g a g i n g p o p u l a t i o n s whose demands f o r h e a l t h c a r e and income m a i n t e n a n c e

( s o c i a l s e c u r i t y ) w i l l i n c r e a s e t o u n p r e c e d e n t e d l e v e l s , t h e r e b y c a l l i n g f o r t h p o l i c i e s t h a t w i l l s e e k t o promote i n c r e a s e d f a m i l y c a r e and w o r k l i f e f l e x i b i l i t y . The new P o p u l a t i o n Program w i l l examine c u r r e n t p a t t e r n s o f p o p u l a t i o n a g i n g a n d c h a n g i n g l i f e - s t y l e s i n IIASA c o u n t r i e s , p r o j e c t t h e n e e d s f o r h e a l t h a n d

income s u p p o r t t h a t s u c h p a t t e r n s a r e l i k e l y t o g e n e r a t e d u r i n g t h e n e x t s e v e r a l d e c a d e s , and c o n s i d e r a l t e r n a t i v e f a m i l y and employment p o l i c i e s t h a t m i g h t r e d u c e t h e s o c i a l c o s t s o f m e e t i n g t h e s e n e e d s .

An i m p o r t a n t component i n t h e o r g a n i z a t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e P o p u l a t i o n Program i s a n e x t e n s i v e n e t w o r k o f c o l l a b o r a t i n g s c h o l a r s and i n s t i t u t i o n s i n o v e r two d o z e n c o u n t r i e s . The

H u n g a r i a n C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e i s a member o f t h i s n e t w o r k and t h e Head o f i t s P o p u l a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s D e p a r t m e n t , D r . Andras K l i n g e r , i s a c t i v e l y c o l l a b o r a t i n g w i t h t h e IIASA r e s e a r c h . A s p a r t o f t h i s a c t i v i t y , D r . K l i n g e r a r r a n g e d f o r t h e t r a n s l a t i o n i n t o E n g l i s h o f t h e e s s a y s i n c l u d e d i n t h i s p u b l i c a t i o n . O r i - g i n a l l y p r e p a r e d f o r a c o n f e r e n c e on t h e e l d e r l y p o p u l a t i o n i n Hungary, h e l d i n B u d a p e s t , t h e y a r e b e i n g i s s u e d i n t h i s form t o make them a v a i l a b l e t o a w i d e r a u d i e n c e .

A n d r e i R o g e r s L e a d e r

P o p u l a t i o n Program

CONTENTS

I n t r o d u c t i o n 3

J b n o s S z e n t b g o t h a i : Opening Speech 5

A n d r d s K l i n g e r : Demographic A s p e c t s o f Aging 1 2

J 6 z s e f K e p e c s : The Problems of Old P o p u l a t i o n on B a s i s

o f Family and Housing S t a t i s t i c s 5 7 P 6 t e r J 6 z a n : Some A s p e c t s o f t h e M o r t a l i t y o f Old

P o p u l a t i o n i n Hungary on B a s i s o f I n t e r n a t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c s

~ d s z l 6 C s e h - S z o m b a t h y : The S o c i o l o g i c a l and S o c i o - P o l i t i c a l A s p e c t s o f Aging Z o l t d n A j k a y : H e a l t h and S o c i o - P o l i t i c a l A s p e c t s o f

Aging

E d i t B e r e g i : Medical A s p e c t s of Gerontology

V e r a f l y i t r a i : Demographic S i t u a t i o n and Problems o f t h e Old P o p u l a t i o n . C l o s i n g Speech

INTRODUCTION

The Demographic Committee of t h e Hungarian Academy o f S c i e n c e s and t h e Hungarian C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e o r g a n i z e d j o i n t l y w i t h t h e Hungarian N a t i o n a l Committee of t h e UN World Conference on Ageing and w i t h t h e Hungarian S o c i e t y of

Gerontology a s c i e n t i f i c conference on t h e demographic s i t u a t i o n and problems of t h e o l d p o p u l a t i o n from 20 t o 2 1 A p r i l 1982.

The o r g a n i z a t i o n of t h e conference s e r v e d t h e p r e p a r a t i o n of t h e Conference on Ageing convened by t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s f o r 1982.

The meeting w a s h e l d at t h e Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Beside t h e Hungarian p a r t i c i p a n t s at t h e c o n f e r e n c e a l s o t h e UN Economic C o m i s s i c n f o r Europe w a s r e p r e s e n t e d and t h e e x p e r t s of B u l g a r i a , Czechoslovakia, Poland, t h e GDR and USSR were p r e s e n t .

The c o n f e r e n c e w a s opened by P r o f e s s o r JAnos S z e n t d g o t h a i , member and p r e s i d e n t of t h e Eungarian Academy of S c i e n c e s . The i n t r o d u c t o r y p a p e r was r e a d b y P r o f e s s o r S h d o r S z a l a i , member of t h e Zungarian Academy of S c i e n c e s and t h e c l o s i n g speech was h e l d b y D r . Vera Njritrai, s e c r e t a r y of s t a t e , p r e s i d e n t o f t h e Eungarian

C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l Office.

The c o n f e r e n c e d e a l i n g w i t h t h e demographic s i t u a t i o n and probiems of o l d p o p u l a t i o n d i s c u s s e d t h e problems i n f o u r s e c t i o n s . The i n d i v i d u a l s e c t i o n s approached t h e p r o b l e m from d i f f e r e n t s i d e s /demography; s o c i o l o g y and s o c i a l p o l i c y ; p u b l i c h e a l t h a d s o c i a l p o l i c y ; medical a s p e c t s of gerontology/ g i v i n g t h u s a

s y n t h e s i s of t h e d i f f e r e n t s t u d i e s on ageing.

The f o l l o w i n g s e l e c t i o n c o n t a i n i n g t h e opening 2nd c l o s i n g s p e e c h e s , t h e B q a r i a n p a p e r s o f t h e f o u r s e c t i o n s and two

E u n g a r i u l c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e d e a o g r a p h i c s e c t i o n g i v e s a c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l view, i n c l u d i n g i n some c a s e s i n t e r n a t i o n a l a p e c t s , t o o , on t h e s i t u s t i o n and problems o f o l d p o p u l a t i o n i n Eungary s ; $ e l l as on t h e approach of t h e s o l u t i o n of t h e p r o b l e n s .

The complete m a t e r i a l of t h e conference w i l l be published by t h e Hungarian C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e in 1983 under t h e t i t l e "Az idgskoru n6pess6 g demogr6f i a i h e l y z e t e B s problBm5i"

h he

Professor J h o s SZENT~GCYTHAI, Idember and President of t h e

~ @ a r i a n Academy of Sciences

Ladies and Gentlemen, as your h o s t , may I welcome you not only i n my own name, and i n t h e name of t h e Presidium and t h e members of t h e Hungarian Academy of Sciences but a l s o on behalf of t h e scientific community working i n our committee network, covering a g r e a t share of our s c i e n t i f i c researchers.

The s c i e n t i f i c research i n general, and i t s leading highest forum, t h e Hungarian Academy of Sciences observe with a s p e c i a l a t t e n t i o n such questions of n a t i o n a l importance a s " t h e ageing and t h e problems of old people i n general" being on t h e agenda of t h i s conference. This a t t e n t i o n r e p r e s e n t s a p a r t of t h e new working s t y l e of t h e Hungarian Academy of Sciences, t h e main point of which i s t h a t instead of t h e introversion c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h e e a r l i e r periods our Academy concentrates a g r e a t e r p a r t of i t s a t t e n t i o n on general s o c i o - p o l i t i c a l problems r e q u i r i n g s c i e n t i f i c knowledge. I don't want

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competence i n t h e following two days. However, t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e importance of t h e question I s t i l l mention some figures, e.g. t h a t t h e proportion of persons of pensionable age within t h e t o t a l population a t t a i n e d 20 per text a d by t h e end of t h e t u r n of t h e century i t w i l l be 23 per cent. I n t h i s respect we are among t h e more developed countries of t h e world. On b a s i s of such f i g u r e s we o f t e n hear t h e question

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always r e a l

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tinuausly. This i t s e l f would not involve n e c e s s a r i l y a g r e a t e r danger because t h e modern development of manufacturing and i n general of t h e economy produces more and more e f f i c a c i o u s

methods r e q u i r i n g l e s s and l e s s labour f o r c e , t h e r e f o r e in t h e most developed c o u n t r i e s i t i s no more t h e manpower shortage b u t ,

on t h e contrary, t h e labour f o r c e of a number t o o high a s com- pared t o t h e demands which causes a problem.

I n my opinion t h e r e d problem i s

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r e p r e s e n t s 2 per cent and it w i l l continue t o grow till t h e end of t h i s century / t o 2.2 p e r cent/, Not only t h e persons over 80

years but a g r e a t share of t h o s e of pensionable age, about 50 per cent of them, need a permanent o r a t l e a s t a repeated h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n . This f i g u r e i l l u s t r a t e s t h e r e a l burdens'imposed regarding old

people on t h e s o c i e t y ; t h e modern technology

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question.

From t h e w r i t t e n h i s t o r y of mankind but a l s o from t h e excavation of undisturbed cemeteries of closed s e t t l e m e n t s we have got some i d e a on t h e h i s t o r i c a l and p r e - h i s t o r i c a l age- s t r u c t u r e of t h e population. ??ore exact f i g u r e s c m

be obtained by c o l l e c t i n g t h e known b i o g r a p h i c a l d a t a of t h e sovereigns of c e r t a i n epochs. In !iestern Europe i n t h e e a r l y Itiddle Ages, i.e. ir, t h e period between 800 and 1300 t h e

sovereigns l i v e d on t h e average t i l l t h e age of 31 years. They

were mostly men, and as r u l i n g i s no harmless p r o f e s s i o n , we h a r d l y make a g r e a t mistake by e s t i m a t i n g a s i m i l a r average age f o r t h e m a j o r i t y of t h e broad population l i v i n g under worse conditions. A s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e took p l a c e i n t h e l a t e ldiddle Ages, i.e. i n t h e 1300-1450 period when t h e average age of t h e sovereigns was a l r e a d y 36 years. It i s curious t h a t a f t e r t h i s epoch t h e lengthening of age became s t a g n a n t f o r a long time;

i n t h e period from 1600 t o 1780 t h e average age of t h e

sovereigns was s t i l l only 37 y e a r s and some decimals. The f i r s t s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a which can be considered a s r e l a t i v e l y exact a r e a v a i l a b l e from t h e end of t h e 1 7 t h century on t h e c i v i l population of C e n t r a l and Eastern &rope. Caspas Neumann, t h e p r i e s t of t h e St. E l i z a b e t h church i n Breslau / a t p r e s e n t

rocl law/

Leibnitz, t h e o u t s t anding philosopher and rnathematician of t h i s epoch found ~eumann's d a t a important enough t o Lraw t o them t h e a t t e n t i o n of t h e Royal S o c i e t y i n London, and r e p e s t e d ITeumann t o make h i s t a b l e s a v a i l a b l e . The Roysl S o c i e t y charged EUmund Halley, t h e prominent astronomer t o e v a l u a t e t h e d a t a , who i n h i s famous work i n 1693 e l a b o r a t e d t h e f i r s t l i f e t a b l e prac-

t i c a l l y i n a modern form and i n d i c a t e d t h e average l i f e expectancy.

A t t h a t time t h e average age of t h e t o t a l population of ^u?

average town w a s only 33.5 y e a r s , i.e. lower than t h a t of t h e sovereigns. Wen d u r i n g t h e 18th century t h e r e was only a s l i g h t development but a f t e r t h i s a s i g n i f i c a n t change took place. During t h e 1 9 t h century and a t i t s end i n t h e most developed c o u n t r i e s of =rope and i n t h e USA t h e average

d u r a t i o n of l i f e w a s around 50 y e a r s and i n t h e 1930s i t a l r e d y reached t h e value around 60 years, not t o mention t h e l a t e r much g r e a t e r development due t o which i n mvly c o u n t r i e s t h e zverage l i f e expectancy i s a l r e a d y over 70 y e z s f o r both sexes a t pzesent

.

So i f by t h e t u r n of t h e millenary i n Hungary, too, t h e proportion of 80 year old and o l d e r persons w i l l be 2.2 per cent

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Already i n t h e ancient times t h e t h e s i s was formulated:

"senectus i p s e morbusl', i.e. "old age i t s e l f means i l l n e s s t 1 which seems t o be t r u e , but t h e problem i s q u i t e d i f f e r e n t i f it i s considered from another side. Though a person over 60 years i s more f e e b l e and needs a g r e a t e r medical care and h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n , r e s p e c t i v e l y , he/she i s not a t a l l h e l p l e s s , i n many cases not even i n his/her n i n t h decade. On a rough average everybody may count upon l i v i n g two decades a f t e r r e t i r i n g , and t o spend t h i s period i n a u s e f u l and s e n s i b l e w a y i s t h e main i n t e r e s t both of t h e s o c i e t y , family and of t h e person i n question. It i s sure t h a t a t present i n t h e p r a c t i c e of our s o c i e t y an a t t i t u d e opposite t o l o g i c can be observed i n t h i s f i e l d : while t h e physical a b i l i t j . , i.e. t h e muscular s t r e n g t h begins t o decrease 2lrea.Q 2t t h e end of t h e twenties

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t h e mental a b i l i t y of a person vino improves his/her mind and is busy r e g u l a r l y develops nore or l e s s t i l l t h e age 02 60 years, though a t a slower pace, and a g r e a t e r r e g r e s s t a k e s p l a c e only a f t e r t h e age 0." 65 years even under /non-specific/

pathological conditions. In t h i s respect it i s not l o g i c a l t h 2 t a f t e r t h e attzinrnent of t h e pensionable age our s o c i e t y has s t i l l a great demand on manual work, e s p e c i a l l y on un- s k i l l e d manual work of so-called female type, but p r a c t i c a l 1 7 t h e r e i s no demand

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i n t e l l e c t u a l work of persons over t h e pensiona'ole age. I have no i d e a how t o e l i m i n a t e t h i s r a t h e r general b a s i c contradic- t i o n of t h e modern society.

B r i l l i a n t accomplishments s u r p a s s i n g h i g h l y t h e average and connected with age i n a very various way according t o t h e i n d i v i d u a l f i e l d s of a c t i v i t y make a g r e a t impression. Xany mathematicians and t h e o r e t i c a l physicians a t t a i n t h e pedc of t h e i r work a t t h e i r t w e n t i e s , while i n n a t u r a l s c i e n c e s r e q u i r i n g experimental and p r a c t i c a l work, a s well as i n s o c i a l s c i e n c e s t h e main work i s o f t e n postponed t o t h e decades of t h e pensionable age. k good example f o r t h i s i s Arnold Hauser, t h e o u t s t a n d i n g Hungarian art- s o c i o l o g i s t deceased r e c e n t l y who worked mostly abroad d u r i n g h i s l i f e . H i s s c i e n t i f i c oeuvre 02 i n t e r n a t i o n a l fame ended a t t h e age of 70 y e a r s with a work which w a s t r a n s l a t e d i n t o 26 world lznguages in some years. Of t h e "peak artistsll b o w n a l l over t h e world Tiziano deceased a t t h e age of 100 y e a r s i s a good example f o r t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e a r t i s t i c accomplis.hment and age; he p a i n t e d t h e t o r t u r e of Christ a t t h e meridian of h i s l i f e , in. h i s e a r l y f o r t i e s and t h e second time again a t t h e age of n e a r l y 100 years. The comparison of t h e two p i c t u r e s shows t h a t though t h e n e a r l y 100 y e a r old a r t i s t l o s t much i n h i s famous ease of handling t h e 5rxsh ad i n elegance, t h e presumable

decrease i n h i s p h y s i c a l s t r e n g t h and s i g h t forced him t o s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s i n h i s l a t e r p i c t u r e which a r e much n e a r e r t o u s at p r e s e n t and make a deeper a r t i s t i c impression t h a n h i s

e a r l i e r more e l e g v l t work painted with a g r e a t routine.

These examples and a l s o t h e inner c o n t r a d i c t i o n s of our s o c i a l p r a c t i c e i n d i c a t e t h a t a t t h e pensionable age it is

r e a l i s t i c t o count on t h e average upon 15-20 u s e f u l y e u s and it i s not a t a l l t h e saxe whether we spend t h i s period oI'ten i n a h o s p i t a l , naybe i n bed, p a r t l y h e l p l e s s o r i n ^ul a c t i v e w w

doing maybe, nothing e l s e t h v l a hobby work. This r a i s e s t h e c l o s i n g i d e a of my i n t r o d ~ c t i o n t h a t though t h e f i t n e s s of our

organism depends much on t h e g e n e t i c f a c t o r s which we cannot i n f l u e n c e , s t i l l we can do much by de$reasing t h e r i s k f a c t o r s of t h e d i s e a s e s a t old age. A l l o ~ . ~ me, p l e a s e , t o enumerate them b r i e f l y . It i s well known t h a t a body weight above t h e optimum i s a grave r i s k f a c t o r p a r t l y i n i t s e l f because it overburdens t h e blood c i r c u l a t i o n and t h e lower limbs, but i n d i r e c t l y t h e main

causes of t h e d i s e a s e s of t h e c i r c u l a t o r y system a r e t h e same as those of t h e t o o high body weight. Thus between t h e s e two t h e r e i s a c o r r e l a t i o n of circullw v i t i o s u s character. Maybe, I must not speak of smoking and alcohol abuse a s well-known s e r i o u s r i s k

f a c t o r s which i n case of women a r e even more harmful because a smoking woman exposes her f o e t u s t o danger even i n t h e case i f she happens t o s t o p smoking completely f o r t h e period of h e r pregnancy with a s u f f i c i e n t s e l f - d i s c i p l i n e , A t present we can already speak without exaggeration of t h e two "white k i l l e r s " of mankind, One of them i s t h e sugar, It i s a custom t o c h a r a c t e r i z e t h e l i v i n g standard of t h e s o c i e t y

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consider t h a t formerly t h e d i a b e t e s

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was a d i s e a s e of t h e bourgeois and p e t t y bourgeois s t r a t a , a t present it became a widespread d i s e a s e of masses, j u s t FJecause a l s o a g r e a t p a r t of t h e working population becvne g r e a t s u g a consumers, Ye speak much l e s s of t h e o t h e r x h i t e kAller, t h e szlt, and even t h e physicians don't p w much a t t e n t i o n t o it. It i s t m e t h a t in respect of t h e " s a l t d i s c h a g i n g capacity" very various among t h e a n i n a l s t h e humm being i s i n t h e f o r e f r o i t . A r ~ t g e t t i n g a usual hunm food does not even a t t a i n 70 p e r cent of i t s p o t e n t i a l %e, j u s t because it does not bear s o much s a l t , :le f o r g e t t h a t over 10 per cent of t h e population cannot a s s i m i l a t e g e n e t i c a l l y t h e q u a n t i t y of s a l t which t h e human c i v i l i z a t i o n

f o r c e s us t o t a k e m d e r t h e pressure of m m a l work done a l s o i n a w a r m environment, These a r e people g e t t i n g ill with e s s e n t i a l m e r t o n i a ; t h e r e f o r e t h i s i s not a d i s e a s e but simply a g e ~ e t i c v a r i a n t which cannot n m x e t h e s a l t consumption developed i n

consequence of human c i v i l i z a t i o n and thus such a person

g e t s i r r e t r i e v a b l y ruined a t a n age of 50-60 years. It i s t r u e t h a t modern therapy has wonderful means f o r t h e discharge of

sodium but t h e s e medicines a r e s t i l l not n e u t r a l . I f persons s i c k with grave e s s e n t i a l hypertonia d i f f i c u l t t o c o n t r o l a r e put on s a l t - f r e e d i e t , t h e i r l i f e expectancy can be lengthened md it may correspond t o t h e l i f e expectancy of q u i t e h e a l t h y people. Among t h e r i s k f a c t o r s , o r more c o r r e c t l y among t h e

methods decreasing t h e r i s k f a c t o r s I w a n t t o mention t h e r e g u l a r screening t e s t s which can diagnose tuberculous d i s e a s e s s t i l l e x i s t i n g and mainly cancers of gynaecological c h a r a c t e r i n a period when these d i s e a s e s can be cured p r a c t i c a l l y complete- ly.

Please, don't t a k e it amiss t h a t i n my i n t r o d u c t i o n I a l s o mentioned such s l i g h t l y f r i g h t e n i n g p e r s p e c t i v e s but it would be advisable f o r everybody t o consider whether a t young or middle age it i s worth-while t o give up a v e r j doubtful enjoyment f o r t h e s&e of old age which seems t o be very f a r a t t h a t time. I n my humble opinion i 5 i s more than worth-while:

by means of decreasing t h e r i s k f a c t o r s we ourselves can do

t h e nost t o solve t h i s grave problem of our s o c i e t y , t h e provision f o r old and h e l p l e s s people on a l e v e l worthy of a human being i n t h e n e a d e c d e s without burdening i r r e d l y t h e s o c i e t y . In t h e opposite case t h e age lenght.ened by t h e modern science aci c i v i l i z = t i o n would add only p a i n f u l a d humiliating decades t o t h e end of h~man l i f e .

In t h e s p i r i t of t h i s i d e a I open t h e conference

wishing a good work and 3uccessful d i s c u s s i o n t o t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s .

D r . Andrss KLINGER, Chief o f Department of t h e Hungarian C e n t r a l S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e :

DD4OGRAPHIC ASPECTS OF AGEING

Among t h e changes i n t h e s t r u c t u r e of p o p u l a t i o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n by age i s t h e most i m p o r t v l t i n a l l t h e s t a g e s of t h e demographic development. The d i f f e r e n t demographic movements a l t e r f i r s t o f a l l t h e a g e - s t r u c t u r e of t h e p o p u l a t i o n ; i t s m o d i f i c a t i o n , however, r e f l e c t s s t r o n g l y t h e development of t h e demographic processes. The demographic t r a n s i t i o n changed much t h e a g e - s t r u c t u r e o f a l l t h e p o p u l a t i o n s : because o f t h e d e c r e a s e i n f e r t i l i t y and p a r a l l e l l y w i t h it due t o t h e d e c l i n e i n

m o r t a l i t y t h e p r o p o r t i o n of young people became lower and t h a t of o l d persons got h i g h e r . So we can a l s o s a y t h a t a f t e r t h e denographic t r a n s i t i o n t h e a g e i n g i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h e

demographic development. T h e r e f o r e t h e a n a l y s i s of t h e a g e i n g o f p o p u l a t i o n i s of s p e c i a l i m p o r t a c e f o r t h e demographic r e s e a r c h . Besides a l s o t h e g e n e r a l s t u a y of t h e s o c i e t y

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Before d e a l i n g with t h i s t o p i c i n a l l detc?iis i t i s n e c e s s q y t o c l e a r some concepts. >ie s h a l l ofter- h e a r o f e l d e r l y o r o l d people. The H u n g a r i a language u s e s t h e s e two

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d e f i n i t i o n s as synonyns, t h e r e i s no d i s t i n c t i o n i n c o n t e n t between them. T h i s r e f e r s not o n l y t o t h e everyday u s e o f words b u t a l s o t o t h e p r o f e s s i a n a l terminology. Also t h e demographic l i t e r a t u r e u s e s t h e s e two words a l t e r n a t e l y and does n o t r~~m-t

t o make any d i s t i n c t i o n between t h e s e two t e r m s c o n c e a l i n g some d i f f e r e n c e s a f t e r all. With b o t h t e r m s t h o s e p e r s o n s a r e

i n d i c a t e d who b e l o n g t o t h e s o - c a l l e d " t h i r d f f age-group, i .e.

t o t h e one f o l l o w i n g t h e young and a d u l t age. Analyses h a v i n g a d i f f e r e n t purpose and c o n t e n t s t a t e t h e lower l i m i t o f t h i s age-group at d i f f e r e n t ages. I n a l l c a s e s t h e b a s i c i d e a i s t o f i n d t h e so-called I f i n a c t i v e " age, t h e epproach l e t be e i t h e r on b a s i s o f t h e economic a c t i v i t y o r t h e h e a l t h c o n d i t i o n o r , maybe, t h e need of s o c i a l c a r e . N a t u r a l l y i n demographic s e n s e t h i s d e l i m i t a t i o n h a s n o t an i n d i v i d u a l b u t a s o c i a l b a s i s , s o t h e "averageff s i t u a t i o n i s t a k e n i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n . I n Hungary two d e f i n i t i o n s o f such k i n d a r e used most f r e q u e n t l y : t h e one d e f i n e s t h e lower l i m i t o f o l d age t r a d i t i o n a l l y at t h e age of 60 y e a r s , i.e. t h e 60 y e a r o l d and o l d e r people a r e c o n s i d e r e d as o l d persons. The c o n c e p t u a l b a s i s o f t h i s d e f i n i t i o n i s t h a t p r a c t i c a l l y i t i s t h i s age when t h e main symptoms c h a r e c t e r i s t i c of t h e a g e i n g o f human b e i n g b e g i n t o appear: i n t h e economic a c t i v i t y , t h e i n c r e a s i n g b i o l o g i c a l "wear and t e a r f f , t h e h e a l t h c o n d i t i o n , t h e need o f c a r e e t c . The o t h e r d e f i n i t i o n i s of l e g a l c h a r a c t e r . According t o t k i s d e f i n i t i o n t h e p e r s o n who i s e n t i t l e d t o g e t a pension, i.e. ?<no completed t h e age when a c c o r d i n g t o t h e v a l i d l e g a l r u l e s

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p e r i o d of economic a c t i v i t y

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e x i s t i n g s i t u a t i o n a d i s n o t s u i t a b l e f o r comparison i n tiine.

According t o t h e p r e s e n t p r a c t i c e t h e 55 y e a r o l d and o l d e r females and t h e 60 y e a r o l d and o l d e r males can be c o n s i d e r e d m o l d / i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f t h e i r e c t u a i economic a c t i v i t y / . I f o l d age i s d e f i n e d i n t h i s way, o p p o s i t e t o t h e former concept h a v i n g more demogrephic c h a r a c t e r , t h e f e n a l e s aged 55-59 a r e i n c l u d e d anong o l d p e o p l e , but t h e y a r e not c o n s i d e r e d as o l d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e mentioned i n t h e f i r s t case. A s t h e l e g a l

r e t i r i n g age changes with time not only w i t h i n t h e country / f o r example, some y e a r s ago i n Hungary, too, t h e r e t i r i n g age was d i f f e r e n t f o r persons employed and f o r t h e members of product i o n cooperatives/ but even more 'oy c o u n t r i e s /it v a r i e s between 55 and 70 a l s o f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l comparison it

seems t o be more motivated t o choose a more simple and more

uniform d e f i n i t i o n . The UN decided i n general and a s a p r e p a r a t i o n of i t s Conference of t h i s y e a r t h a t t h e age-limit of 60 y e a r s should be used f o r t h e d e f i n i t i o n of o l d age. So i n t h i s paper t h i s p r a c t i c e w i l l be followed unanimously, i.e. i n a l l cases when we speak of old persons we mean t h o s e who a r e 60 y e a r o l d o r older.

N a t u r a l l y , i n i t s content t h e o l d age cannot be con- s i d e r e d as uniform. A t a b i o l o g i c a l , health- o r s o c i a l approach t h e c o n d i t i o n of t h e i n d i v i d u a l persons and population groups i s d i f f e r e n t w i t h i n t h i s l a r g e age-group. A s t h e person g e t s older, t h e s e t r o u b l e s and problems i n c r e a s e , s o p a r a l l e l l y w i t h t h e advancement i n age t h e content of t h e s o c i a l c a r e i s

d i f f e r e n t . Therefore i n t h i s paper we wmt t o present t h e demographic problems of old people not only t o g e t h e r but d s o by age-groups. For s i m p l i c i t y

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of s o c i a l c h a r a c t e r / i s c a l l e d t h e o l d e s t age. U s o t h e term lTsenescence" i s used but it r a t h e r i n d i c a t e s t h e extremely old persons /85 o r 90 y e a r old and older/.

I n a demographic sense w e i n g means t h e process of t h e i n c r e a s e in t h e p r o p o r t i o n of old people w i t h i n t h e

population. So t h e change i n t h i s value can be ascribed not only t o t h e f a c t t h a t i n consequence of t h e lengthening of t h e d u r a t i o n of l i f e more old persons l i v e i n t h e population but a l s o t u t h e f a c t t h a t t h e number and through t h i s a l s o t h e

proportion of younger persons change within t h e t o t a l population.

In Hungary

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process i s connected with t h e f a c t t h a t under t h e impact of t h e gradual d e c l i n e i n f e r t i l i t y t h e number and r a t i o of per- sons of young age /under 15 years/ f e l l much / i n t h i s respect those of adult age

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7.5 per cent t o 17.1 per cent. I f t h e r a t i o of persons of young age had not decreased

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i f within t h e population t h e r a t i o of persons under 15 ^years

were t h e same as 80 y e a s ago, then t h e proportion of persons over 60 would be only 15 per cent. I3iith other :qoras t h i s means t h a t one f i f t h of t h e apparent ageing observed during 80 y e a r s was caused by t h e d e c l i n e i n t h e -number of young persons and

only f o u r f i f t h by t h e a c t u a l growth i n t h e n m b e r of old people.

This ~ e f e r s even more t o t h e ageing process supposed f o r t h e Tollowing two decades. According t o t h e p r o j e c t i o n s t h e

proportion of old people w i l l grow from 17 per cent, t h e vaiue of 1980, t o 19 per cent by t h e year 2000; two f i f t h s of t h i s i n c r e a s e can 3e ascribed t o t h e probable decrease i n t h e

~ r o p o r t i o n of y o n & persons and only t h r e e f i f t h s t o t h e a c t u a l

t endency of age ing

.

After t h i s s h o r t introduc-tion t h e w e i n g process i n Hungay b r i l l be described and t h e number mci composition of

o l d people w i l l be i n d i c a t e d , r e s p e c t i v e l y . N a t u r a l l y , our main purpose i s t o o u t l i n e t h e p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n b u t t o u n d e r s t a n d i t , i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o b e g i n t h e s t u d y i n a somewhat f a r t h e r p e r i o d , s o where it i s p o s s i b l e , t h e change i n t h e demographic s t r u c t u r e w i l l be followed from t h e b e g i n n i n g of t h e c e n t u r y , and t h e p e r i o d

a f t e r World ?Jar I1 w i l l be analysed i n a somewhat more d e t a i l e d form. Beside r e v e a l i n g t h e p a s t we a l s o want t o s p e a k of t h e presumable f u t u r e t r e n d s on b a s i s of p o p u l a t i o n p r o j e c t i o n s . I n t h i s r e s p e c t we don't i n t e n d t o l o o k v e r y f a r i n t o t h e f u t u r e , o n l y t i l l t h e y e a r 2009. To u n d e r s t a n d t h e Hungarian s i t u a t i o n we a l s o deem n e c e s s a r y t h e comparison w i t h t h e f i g u r e s of t h e

c o u n t r i e s of Europe as f a r as d a t a a r e a v a i l a b l e . 1. Number and p r o p o r t i o n of o l d p e r s o n s a/

The most i m p o r t a n t i s t o know t h e development of t h e number and p r o p o r t i o n of o l d persons w i t h i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n of Hungary. F i r s t r e l i a b l e d a t a on t h e p r e s e n t t e r r i t o r y of t h e

c o u n t r y can be drawn from t h e 1870 p o p u l a t i o n c e n s u s ; a t t h a t t i m e 256 000 60 y e a r o l d 2nd o l d e r persons l i v e d i n t h e

c o u n t r y which was e q u a l t o 5 p e r cent o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n . By t h e b e g i n n i n g of t h e 2 0 t h c e n t u r y t h i s r a t i o was n e a r t o 8 p e r cent

and i n t h e inter-war p e r i o d i t v a r i e d between 1 0 and 11 p e r cent. A f t e r Yorld Xar I1 t h i s i n c r e a s i n g t r e n d g o t even n o r e i n t e n s i v e : t h e p r o c e s s of ageing was e s p e c i a l l y sJ;rong t i l l 1970, when a l r e a d y 1 7 p e r text of t h e p o p u l a t i o n were o l d ; i n t h e r e c e n t decade t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f o l d people d i d n o t grow, i n 1980 t h e i r number w e s 1 830 000 which i s t h r e e m d a h a l f t i m e s as much a s a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e century.

I n t h e c a s e we do not c o n t e n t o u r s e l v e s w i t h t h e p r e s e n t a t i o n of t h e o l d p o p u l a t i o n a s a whole b u t we x a n t t o

a/ See: Table 1.

s t u d y t h e t r e n d s o f a g e i n g f o r t h e t h r e e =e-subgroups, we f i n d t h e g r e a t e s t i n c r e a s e i n t h e o l d e s t age-group. I n l 9 O O o n l y somewhat more t h a n 30 000 80 y e a r o l d and o l d e r p e r s o n s l i v e d i n t h e c o u n t r y / t h e i r r a t i o w a s o n l y 0.5 p e r c e n t / , at p r e s e n t a l r e a d y 210 000, i.ee six and a h a l f t i m e s as many as a t t h e t u r n of t h e c e n t u r y , and a l s o w i t h i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n t h e y

a l r e a d y r e p r e s e n t 2 p e r cent. During t h e p e r i o d o f e i g h t y y e a r s t h e number of o l d people belonging t o t h e middle group

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y e a r o l d

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1900-1980 p e r i o d t h e i r number i n c r e a s e d lfonlylf two and a h a l f t i m e s ; t h e i r s h a r e changed from 5 p e r c e n t t o n e a r l y 9 p e r cent.

But i n r e s p e c t o f t h i s l a t t e r t r e n d we have t o know t h a t by 1980

o l d age w a s reached by t h o s e age-groups which were born d u r i n g World Nar I, c o v e r i n g much l e s s p e r s o n s due t o t h e l o s s e s i n b i r t h s t h a n t h e p r e v i o u s age-groups /between 1915 and 1918 t h e number o f b i r t h s

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Because o f t h e d i f f e r e n t development of t h e v a r i o u s o l d age-groups t h e i n n e r a g e - s t r u c t u r e of o l d people changed much. I n l 9 C O 68 p e r c e n t of t h e 60 y e a r o l d and o l d e r persons

s t i l l belonged t o t h e age-group of 6 G 6 9 y e a r s , 26 per cent of them were 7G79 y e a r old and only 6 per cent were 80 y e a r o l d and older. On t h e c o n t r a r y , i n 1980 only t h e h a l f of old people belonged t o t h e age group below 70 y e a r s , 38 per cent of them was 70-79 year old and t h e s h a r e of t h e o l d e s t w a s a l r e a d y 12 per c e n t , i.e. r e l a t i v e l y twice as much as a t t h e beginning of t h e century. This l a t t e r proportion grew t o a value one and a h a l f times as high even a s it had been b e f o r e World War 11.

After having o u t l i n e d t h e t r e n d of t h e past l e t u s look i n t o t h e n e a r f u t u r e : what w i l l happen i n t h e following twenty y e a r s ? According t o t h e population p r o j e c t i o n s i n H w a r y i n t h e year 2000 t h e number of persons of old age w i l l be by

about hundred thousand h i g h e r t h a n a t p r e s e n t , i.e. i t w i l l be equal t o 1 930 000, and t h e i r proportion w i l l be n e a r t o 19 per cent. An i n c r e a s e w i l l t a k e place i n a l l t h e t h r e e age-groups of old persons

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number of 80 year old and o l d e r persons w i l l be t h e lowest /only 3 per c e n t , t h u s t h e i r share w i l l be p r a c t i c d l y t h e same a s a t present/; t h e number of persons aged 70-79 y e a r s w i l l grow somewnat more /by 5 p e r c e n t , s o t h e i r r a t i o w i l l i n c r e s e from 6.5 per ~ e n t t o over 7 per cent/; and t h e growth w i l l be t h e g r e a t e s t in t h e number of 60-69 y e a r old people t o whom only t h e members of l a r g e r age-groups born i n peace w i l l belong

/ t h e i r number w i l l i n c r e a s e by 7 per c e n t , t h e i r s h a r e from l e s s t h a n 9 per cent t o 10 per c e n t , but even s o i t w i l l be lower t h a n i n 1970/.

It i s worth-while t o study t h e c h a g e i n t h e number and proportion of old persons not only i n i t s e l f but d s o compared t o t h e o t h e r two

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grew mainly p a r a l l e l l y with t h e d e c r e a s e i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n of persons of t h e young age-group. I n 1870 s t i l l 37 p e r c e n t , i n 1900 35 p e r c e n t of t h e population were c h i l d r e n , t h e n by 1930 t h i s r a t i o f e l l t o 27 p e r cent and a t t h e r e c e n t two p o p u l a t i o n censuses i t w a s equal t o 21-22 p e r cent. According t o t h e

p r o j e c t i o n s by 2000 o n l y 18 per cent of t h e p o p u l a t i o n w i l l be under 15 years. Consequently t h e number of o l d persons p e r 100 c h i l d r e n grew from 14, t h e value of 1870 and from 23, t h e value of 1900, t o 78-79 by t h e y e a r s 197-1980, and i n 2000 t h e number of o l d persons w i l l be a l r e a d y h i g h e r t h a n t h a t o f c h i l d r e n ; i.e. t h e r e w i l l be 103 o l d persons p e r 100 c h i l d r e n .

I f we compare t h e same t o t h e p o p u l a t i o n of a d u l t

/economically a c t i v e / age and c a l c u l a t e t h e so-called dependency i n d i c a t o r s , we s e e t h a t i n Hungary t h e g e n e r a l dependency i n - d i c a t o r has d e c l i n e d on l o n g e r t e r n . I n t h e l a s t t h i r d p a r t of t h e 1 9 t h c e n t u r y t h e r e were s t i l l 73-75 dependents /i.e.

c h i l d r e n and o l d persons/ p e r 100 persons of a c t i v e w e ; by 1930 t h i s p r o p o r t i o n f e l l t o 59, then i t grew s l i g h t l y ar,d i n 1980 i t was 64. The t r e n d of t h e f o l l o w i n g 20 y e a r s w i l l produce again a d e c l i n e : i n 2000 t h e dependency r a t i o w i l l f a l l =sin

t o 59.

3ut f o r t h e c o n d i t i o n s of maintenance t h e p r o p o r t i o n between t h e two groups of dependents i s i n p o r t a n t , because n o t only i n

f i n a n c i a l , but a l s o i n s o c i a l r e s p e c t i t i s n o t t h e sane 7;ihether t h e econornically actiT1e persons ar? obliged t o maintain t h e i r descendants o r t h e i r a c e s t o r s . Yhile i n 1170 12 p e r c e n t , i n 1300 19 p e r cent of dependents were of o l d age, i n 1936 a l r e a d y 27 p e r cent. 3j 1370-1980 t h i s p r o p o r t i o n a l r e a d y grew t o 44 p e r cent and according t o t h e p r o j e c t i o n s i n 2C00 it w i l l r e a c h 51 p e r cent.

Blore e x a c t l y : t h e maintenance o f o l d people i n c r e a s e d t o t h e detriment of c h i l d r e n : v h i l e 110 y e a r s ago 100 persons of

~ c t i v e age h2d t o maintain only 9 o l d persons and even 50 y e a r s

ago only 16, a t present they have t o support a l r e a d y 28 and a f t e r 20 y e a r s 30 old persons, All t h i s i n d i c a t e s t h e g r e a t change occurred i n r e s p e c t of ageing i n t h e society.

The r a t i o of old persons i n Hungary can be considered a s medium s i z e among t h e mropean countries, According t o t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e end of t h e 1970s t h e present H u n g a r i a r a t i o of 17 per cent corresponds t o t h e r a t i o s of Czechoslova- k i a and France and i s near t o t h e proportions of Greece, I t a l y , Luxemburg and Switzerland /18 per cent/ and t o those of Finland and t h e Netherlands /16 per cent/. Among t h e European c o u n t r i e s Sweden i s t h e "oldestll where 22 per cent of t h e population a r e 60 year old and older, but t h e r e a r e r e l a t i v e l y many old people i n England, Norway and Austria, t o o /20 per cent/. The l e s s old c o u n t r i e s a r e Yugoslavia /where t h e s h a r e of old people i s only 12 per cent/, Poland and Iceland /13 per cent/ and Portugal and Romania /14 per cent/, r e s p e c t i v e l y o Higher a r e t h e s e proportions i n t h e GDR, E t G , Belgium and Denmark /19 per cent/, lower in Bulgaria, I r e l v l d and Spain /15 per cent/.

The s i t u a t i o n i s p r a c t i c a l l y s i m i l a r i f we compare t h e proportions of t h e o l d e s t persons, though i n t h i s respect Xungary t a k e s a somewhat lower p o s i t i o n i n t h e rank of t h e h r o p e a n countries. I f i n t h i s respect we d i v i d e t h e countries i n f o u r groups, Hungary w i l l be i n t h e t h i r d place by order, where t h e r a t i o of 80 year old and older population i s zround 2 per cent. To t h i s group belong a l s o I r e l a d , I t a l y , Spain, L ~ ~ e m b u r g , Czechoslov&ia and Finland. The share of t h e o l d e s t i s t h e highest

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~ o r n ~ i a and Portugal. In t h e o t h e r W o p e a n c o u n t r i e s t h e pro-