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Munich Personal RePEc Archive

Foreigh Asset Accumulation and Macroeconomic Policies

Gong, Liutang and Zou, Heng-fu

2 January 2012

Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/37431/

MPRA Paper No. 37431, posted 18 Mar 2012 13:30 UTC

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Foreigh Asset Accumulation and Macroeconomic Policies

Liutang Gong

Guanghua School of Management, Peking University, Beijing, China Heng-fu Zou

CEMA, Central University of Finance and Economics Email: zouhengfu@gmail.com

March 18, 2012

Abstract

In this paper, we have studies the e¤ects of macroeconomic policies on foreign asset ac- cumulation in a wealth e¤ect model used by Bardhan (1967), Kurz (1968), Calvo (1980) and Blanchard (1983). Our results di¤er dramatically from the ones in Obstfeld (1981).

In particular, we have shown that government spending always reduces foreign asset accu- mulation (or increases foreign borrowing). While Obstfeld’s model turned the conventional Mundell-Fleming model on its head, our wealth e¤ect approach has restored its validity.

JEL Classi…cation Numbers: E58, E63, F52.

(3)

0.1 I. Introduction

This paper examines the e¤ects of macroeconomic policies on foreign asset accumulation in a small open economy. It obtains policy implications that are very di¤erent from many existing studies such as Turnovsky (1985, 1987) and, in particular, Obstfeld (1981). In an often-cited paper, Obstfeld (1981) presents three interesting results regarding the e¤ects of government policies on foreign asset holdings: (1) foreign exchange intervention is found to have no real e¤ects when o¢cial foreign reserves earn interest that is distributed to the public; (2) in‡ation leads to higher long-run consumption and foreign claims; (3) an increase in government consumption induces a surplus on current account in the short run and larger foreign asset accumulation in the long run. The intertemporal optimization framework used by Obstfeld in this study and some related studies Obstfeld (1982, 1990) has also in‡uenced the open economy macroeconomics in the past decade.

In this paper, we are going to show that the policy implications of Obstfeld’s model hinge on the special assumption of Uzawa’s (1968) time preference and they are totally reversed and substantially changed in a dynamic optimization model with the wealth e¤ect. The Becker’s endogenous time preference developed in our paper is adapted from the models of Bardhan (1967), Kurz (1968), Calvo (1980), Blanchard (1983), Barro (2003), Brueckner (2000), and Solow (2003) and de…nes the representative agent’s utility function on foreign asset in addition to consumption and real balances. The main results derived from our model stand in striking contrast to the ones in Obstfeld paper: (1) foreign exchange intervention leads to more foreign asset holdings and more consumption in the long run; (2) if the utility function is separable in consumption and real balances as in Obstfeld (1981), in‡ation has no e¤ect on the real variables in both short run and long run; if the utility function is nonseparable, in‡ation results in more foreign asset accumulation when the cross derivative of consumption and real balances is positive; (3) government spending always reduces foreign asset accumulation and crowds out private consumption.

Our paper is organized as follows. Section II sets up a simple wealth e¤ect model with money and discusses the stability and some policy implications of the model. Section III makes detailed comparative study on the e¤ects of macroeconomic policies. We conclude our paper in Section IV.

0.2 II. The Model

We consider a small economy in a competitive world market. The economy is populated with many identical people. We follow Sidrauski (1967), de…ne a representative agent’s instantaneous

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utility as

u(c; m) =u(c) +v(m)

wherecis consumption,mis real balance holdings. Suppose the agent derive the positive utility from consumption goods and money holding, but with positive, but diminshing marginal utility of consumption goods and money holding.

The representative agent’s discounted utility over an in…nite horizon can be written as max

Z 1

0

u(c; m)e tdt where

t= Z t

0

(s(v))dv ((1))

is the Becker’s endogenous time preference,sis consumer’s expenditure on decreasing the time preference, and (:) :R![0;1] satis…es

0 <0; 00 >0 ((2))

Condition (2) state that with the increasing of spending ons, the time preference will decrease, but the marginal value of it is increasing.

The agent’s total wealth de…ned as

a=b+m ((3))

and his budget constraint is

da

dt =y+rb+ c s m ((4))

where y is output, x is the government transfer, is the expected in‡ation rate and r is the returns on the foreign bonds, which is given in the world capital market. The representative agent choose his consumption paths ofaands, holding of foreign bonds and money to maximize his discounted utility, i.e.

max Z 1

0

u(c; m)e tdt

subject to the budget constraint (3) and (4), with t given by equation (1) and initial bonds holdingb(0)is given.

Using the fact

(5)

d t= (s(t))dt we can transfer our model into the form

max Z 1

0

u(c; m) (s(v))e td subject to

da

d = y+rb+ c s m

(s(v)) and equation (3)

De…ne the Hamiltonian H= u(c; m)

(s(v)) + y+rb+ c s m

(s(v)) + a b m

(s(v)) The …rst-order conditions are summarized as follows

uc = ((5))

um = + ((6))

r= ((7))

u(c; m) (s(v))2

0 1 (r n)a+w+ c s ( +r)m

(s(v))2

0 a b m

(s(v))2

0 = 0 ((8)) d

d =

(s(v)) ((9))

and transversality condition

lim

!1 ae = 0

From equations (5), (6) and (7), we have

uc = ((5))

um= ( +r) ((10))

Equation (5) is the formally condition which states marginal utility of consumption equals marginal value of wealth. Equations shows that the marginal utility of money holding equals real interest rate measured by marginal utility of consumption.

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With the aid of d t= (s(t))dt, Euler equation (9) can be transferred into the form d

dt = ( (s) r) ((11))

and the transervesality conditions can be rewritten as lim

!1 ae = 0

0.3 Macroeconomic Equilibrium

In order to derive the macroeconomic equilibrium, we must consider the exchange market.

Suppose the home price of the goods is p, and the corresponding world price is p . From purchasing power parity, we have

p=Ep ((12))

whereE is the exchange rate. With proper normalization,p can be set to one.

To fully spell out the dynamics, we need to specify the government sector. Government revenue comes from money creation and interest earnings from the central bank’s reserves, i.e., , and R denotes the amount of reserves. Government also consumes goods, g, makes transfer, x, to the representative agent. So its budget is given by

g+x= dM

dt =p+rR ((13))

or

g+x= dM dt =MM

p +rR Let the money growth rate be a positive constant

dM dt =M = Then we can write equation (13) as

g+x= m+rR ((14))

By de…nition, m=M=p, we have dm

dt = (dM

dt =M dp

dt=p)m ((15))

(7)

On the perfect foresight path, the expected in‡ation rate is equal to the actual in‡ation rate:

dp

dt=p= de dt=e=

where eis expected rate of exchange rate depreciation. Therefore dm

dt = ( )m ((16))

Now, the macroeconomic equilibrium of the economy is summarized by equations (3),(4), (5), (8), (10), (11), (14), (16), and the transversality condition.

0.3.1 Short-run equilibrium

From equations (3), (5), (8), (10), we can express ; s;and as the functions ofc; b; m; r; ; g; R;

and y:

= (c; b; m; r) ((17))

s=s(c; b; m; r; ; g; R; y) ((18))

= (c; b; m; r) ((19))

and from the appendix we have

c= 1

ucc <0; b = 0; r = 0; m= 0 ((20))

c= u00(c)( +r)

u0(c) >0; b = 0; r= 1; m= umm

u0(c) <0 ((21))

sc = ucm 0 c ucc

u 00 ; sb = ucr 0

u 00 >0; sr= ucm 0 r uc(b+R) 0 u 00 >0;

sm= ucm 0 m um 0

u 00 >0; s = ucm 0

u 00 >0; sy = uc 0

u 00 >0; ((22))

sR= ucr 0

u 00 >0; sg = uc 0 u 00 <0

From equation (20), we know that marginal value of wealth is a decreasing function of consump- tion level. Equation (21) states that, with the increasing of consumption, the expected in‡ation rate will increase, but with the increasing of interest rate and money demand, the expected in‡ation rate will decrease. In order to eliminate the complication, equation (22) presents a steady-state relation.

(8)

0.3.2 Dynamics

Substitute equations (17), (18), and (19) into equations (4), (11), and (16), we get the full dynamic system of foreign bonds, consumption and real balances

db

dt =y+rb+rR g c s(c; b; m; r; ; g; R; y) ((23)) dc

dt = u0(c)

u00(c)(r (s(c; b; m; r; ; g; R; y))) ((24)) dm

dt = ( (c; b; m))m ((25))

And the steady state satis…es

y+rb +rR g c s(c ; b ; m ; r; ; g; R; y) = 0 u0(c )

u00(c )(r (s(c ; b ; m ; r; ; g; R; y))) = 0 ( (c ; b ; m ))m = 0

To understand the stability of the system, we linearize equations (23), (24), and (25) around the steady state values

0 BB

@

db dt dc dt dm

dt

1 CC A=

0 BB

@

r sb 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm cm mm

1 CC A

0 BB

@ b b c c

m m

1 CC A

The determinant of coe¢cient matrix of above linear system is given by

= 0 BB

@

r sb 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm cm mm

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 0

sb sc sm

0 c m

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[r(sc m sm c) +sb m]

= u0(c) u00(c)

0mru00( +r)um 0+umm(ucc + 0)

u 00u0

<0

(9)

which is negative. In this case, the dynamic system has one negative and two positive charac- teristic roots because the product of the three roots is negative and the sum of the three roots is also positive and is given by the trace of the 3x3 matrix, . Therefore, the dynamic system has a unique perfect foresight path near the steady state.

0.4 Comparative Static Solutions

We know that the steady-state value(b ; c ; m ) satis…es

y+rb +rR g c s(c ; b ; m ; r; ; g; R; y) = 0 ((26)) u0(c )

u00(c )(r (s(c ; b ; m ; r; ; g; R; y))) = 0 ((27)) ( (c ; b ; m ))m = 0 ((28)) And from equations (17), (18), and (19), we can determine the steady-state value , s , and . Next, we analyze the e¤ects of exogenous variables on the steady-state valueb ; c ; m ; , s , and .

Total di¤erentiate on equations (26), (27), and (28), we get 0

BB

@

r sb 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm cm mm

1 CC A

0 BB

@ db dc dm

1 CC A

= 0 BB

@ s

u0(c) u00(c)

0s m

1 CC Ad +

0 BB

@

1 +sg

u0(c) u00(c)

0sg 0

1 CC Adg+

0 BB

@

b R+sr

u0(c) u00(c)

0sr 0

1 CC

Adr ((30))

+ 0 BB

@

r+sR

u0(c) u00(c)

0sR 0

1 CC AdR+

0 BB

@

1 +sy

u0(c) u00(c)

0sy 0

1 CC Ady

We have

Proposition 1: In‡ation increases foreign asset accumulation and consumption level, but decreases domestic real balance holdings.

Proof: See the Appendix, we have db

d = b >0;dc

d = c >0;dm

d = m <0

(10)

Proposition 2: Government spending always increases long-run foreign asset accumulation..

Proof:

db dg =

g

b >0;dc dg =

gc

= 0;dm dg =

gm

= 0

Proposition 3: With the increasing of output, long-run foreign asset accumulation will de- crease.

db dy =

y

b <0;dc dy =

yc

= 0;dm dy =

ym

= 0

Proposition 4: The world interest rate will decrease long-run foreign asset accumulation, but increase domestic consumption and real balance holding.

db dr =

r

b <0;dc dr =

rc >0;dm dr =

rm >0

Proposition 5: The central bank’s purchase of foreign claims from the public with domestic currency will lead to less foreign asset accumulation.

db dR =

R

b <0; dc dR =

Rc = 0;dm dR =

Rm = 0

0.5 IV. Conclusion

In this paper, we have studies the e¤ects of macroeconomic policies on foreign asset accumulation in a wealth e¤ect model used by Bardhan (1967), Kurz (1968), Calvo (1980), Blanchard (1983), Yin (2008), and Zhang and Xu (2011). Our results di¤er dramatically from the ones in Obstfeld (1981). In particular, we have shown that government spending always reduces foreign asset accumulation (or increases foreign borrowing). While Obstfeld’s model turned the conventional Mundell-Fleming model on its head, our wealth e¤ect approach has restored its validity.

Evaluating the consequences of macroeconomic policies is complicated; and the results are often very sensitive to the optimization framework we have utilized. Our wealth e¤ect model only provides a di¤erent perspective to the problems and it should be taken as complementary to many existing models.

0.6 Appendix A Derive of Short-run Equilibrium

From equation (3), (5), (5), and (8), we get

uc = ((A1))

(11)

um= ( +r) ((A2)) u(c; m)

(s(v))2

0 1 y+rb+ m+rR g c s m

(s(v))2

0 = 0 ((A3))

we get

= (c; b; m; r)

s=s(c; b; m; r; ; g; R; y)

= (c; b; m; r) and, we have

c= 1

ucc >0; b = 0; r = 0; m= 0 ((A4))

c= u00(c)( +r)

u0(c) >0; b = 0; r= 1; m= umm

u0(c) <0 ((A5))

sc = ucm 0 c ucc uccfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 0 u 00+ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00

sb = ucr 0

u 00 ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00 sr= ucm 0 r uc(b+R) 0

u 00+ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00 sm = ucm 0 m um 0 ucf g 00

u 00+ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00

s = ucm 0

u 00 ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00

sy = uc 0

u 00 ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00

sR= ucr 0

u 00 ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00

sg = uc 0

u 00+ucfy+rb+ m+rR g c s mg 00

Substituting the steady-state conditions (27), (28), and (29) into the above equations, we get sc = ucm 0 c ucc

u 00 ; sb = ucr 0

u 00 >0; sr= ucm 0 r uc(b+R) 0 u 00 >0;

sm= ucm 0 m um 0

u 00 >0; s = ucm 0

u 00 >0; sy = uc 0

u 00 >0; ((A6))

sR= ucr 0

u 00 >0; sg = uc 0

u 00 <0

(12)

0.7 Appendix B

From Equation (30), we have 0

BB

@

r sb 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm cm mm

1 CC A

0 BB

@ db dc dm

1 CC A

= 0 BB

@ s

u0(c) u00(c)

0s m

1 CC Ad +

0 BB

@

1 +sg

u0(c) u00(c)

0sg 0

1 CC Adg+

0 BB

@

b R+sr

u0(c) u00(c)

0sr 0

1 CC

Adr ((30))

+ 0 BB

@

r+sR

u0(c) u00(c)

0sR 0

1 CC AdR+

0 BB

@

1 +sy

u0(c) u00(c)

0sy 0

1 CC Ady

b = 0 BB

@

s 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0s ) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

m cm mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

0 1 0

s sc sm

1 c m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ sm s m] = u0(c)

u00(c)

0mum 0

u 00 <0

g b =

0 BB

@

1 +sg 1 sc sm

u0(c) u00(c)

0sg u0(c) u00(c)

0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

0 cm mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

1 1 0

sg sc sm

0 c m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[(sc m sm c) sg m] = =r <0

r b =

0 BB

@

b R+sr 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sr) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

0 cm mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

b R 1 0

sr sc sm

0 c m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ (b+R)(sc m sm c) sr m]

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ (b+R)(sc m sm c) u0m 0 r m

u 00 (b+R)sb m=r]

= u0(c) u00(c)

0mu0m 0 m

u 00 (b+R) =r >0

(13)

y b =

0 BB

@

1 +sy 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sy) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

0 cm mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

1 1 0

sy sc sm

0 c m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ (sc m sm c) sy m] = =r >0

R b =

0 BB

@

r+sR 1 sc sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sR) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sm

0 cm mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 0

sR sc sm

0 c m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ r(sc m sm c) sR m] = >0

c = 0 BB

@

r sb s sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0s uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm m mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 0 0

sb s sm

0 c m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0mr( s m sm c) = u0(c)

u00(c)

0mrum 0

c

u 00 <0

gc = 0 BB

@

r sb 1 +sg sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sg uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm 0 mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 0

sb sg sm

0 0 m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ rsg m sb m] = 0

rc = 0 BB

@

r sb b R+sr sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sr uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm 0 mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r b R 0

sb sr sm

0 0 m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ rsr m+sb m(b+R)] = u0(c) u00(c)

0mucm 0

u 00 <0

yc = 0 BB

@

r sb 1 +sy sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sy uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm 0 mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 0

sb sy sm

0 0 m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ rsy m+sb m] = 0

(14)

R c =

0 BB

@

r sb r+sR sm

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sR uu000(c)(c) 0sm

bm 0 mm

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r r 0

sb sR sm

0 0 m

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[r( sR m+sb m)] = 0

m = 0 BB

@

r sb 1 sc s

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0s

bm cm m

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 0

sb sc s

0 c 1

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[r(sc s c) sb] = u0(c) u00(c)

0m[r(u00+u0 0) u 00 ]>0

g m=

0 BB

@

r sb 1 sc 1 sg

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sg

bm cm 0

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 1

sb sc sg

0 c 0

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[rsg c+sb c] = 0

rm = 0 BB

@

r sb 1 sc b R+sr

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sr

bm cm 0

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 b+R sb sc sr

0 c 0

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[(b+R)sb c+rsr c] = u0(c)

u00(c)

0mrucm 0 r c

u 00 <0

y m=

0 BB

@

r sb 1 sc 1 +sy

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sy

bm cm 0

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 1

sb sc sy

0 c 0

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[ crsy+sb c] = 0

Rm= 0 BB

@

r sb 1 sc r+sR

u0(c)

u00(c)( 0sb) uu000(c)(c) 0sc uu000(c)(c) 0sR

bm cm 0

1 CC

A= u0(c) u00(c)

0m

0 BB

@

r 1 r

sb sc sR

0 c 0

1 CC A

= u0(c) u00(c)

0m[rsR c+rsb c] = 0

(15)

0.8 References

Bardhan, P., Optimal Foreign Borrowing, in Essays on the Theory of Optimal Economic Growth, edited by Karl Shell, MIT Press, 1967.

Barro, R., (2003). Determinants of Economic Growth in a Panel of Countries, Annals of Economics and Finance 4, 231-274.

Blanchard, Olivier, Debt and Current Account De…cit in Brazil, in Financial Policies and the World Capital Market, edited by Aspe Armella, Dornbusch and Obstfeld, University of Chicago Press, 1983.

Brueckner, J. K. (2000). Fiscal Decentralization in Developing Countries: The E¤ects of Local Corruption and Tax Evation,Annals of Economics and Finance 1: 1-16.

Buiter, Willem, Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping- Generations Model,Journal of Political Economy 89, No.4, 1981, pp.769-797.

Calvo, Guillermo, Financial Opening, Crawling Peg and the Real Exchange Rate, mimeo, 1980.

Kurz, Mordecai, Optimal Economic Growth and Wealth E¤ects, International Economic Review 9, October 1968, pp.348-357.

Obstfeld, Maurice, Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation, Journal of Political Economy 89, December 1981, pp.1142-1161.

______, Aggregate Spending and the Terms of Trade: Is There a Laursen-Metzler E¤ect, Quarterly Journal of Economics 97, 1982, 251-270.

______, Intertemporal Dependence, Impatience, and Dynamics. Journal of Monetary Economics 26, 1990, 45-75.

Solow, R. (2003). Re‡ections on Growth and Development, Annals of Economics and Fi- nance 4, 219-229.

Turnovsky, Stephen, Domestic and Foreign Disturbances in an Optimizing Model of Exchange- Rate Determination, Journal of International Money and Finance 1985, pp.151-171.

____ ,Optimal Monetary Growth with Accommodation Fiscal Policies in a Small Open Economy, Journal of International Money and Finance, 1987, pp.179-193

Uzawa, Hirofumi, Time Preference, the Consumption Function, and Optimal Asset Holdings.

In Value, Capital, and Growth, edited by J. N. Wolfe, Chicago: Aldine, 1968.

Yin, H., (2008). Fiscal Disparities and the Equalization E¤ects of Fiscal Transfers at the Country Level in China,Annals of Economics and Finance 9-1: 115-149.

Zhang, P., and Mann, X. (2011). The View from the Country: China’s Regional Inequalities of Socio-Economic Development,Annals of Economics and Finance 12-1: 183-198

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A model with a saving function, an investment function and an import constraint generates a demand constrained short-run equilibrium in addition to savings and trade and capacity

The Open Market Desk uses this information and other available information such as expected sales and purchases of foreign exchange by the Bank, maturities and new issues of

Employing data from 13 Latin American countries, we find that greater central bank independence is associated with lesser intervention in the foreign exchange market, and also