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(1)

United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service

January 12, 2022

Livestock and Poultry:

World Markets and Trade

China Meat Supply Continues to Grow

Total China meat supply in 2022 is expected at 79 million tons, revised up 7 percent from the prior forecast and again surpassing total meat supplies before the emergence of African swine fever (ASF). Driving the higher estimate is a large upward revision to pork production, which is now expected to grow for a second consecutive year. While hog prices are well below the record levels seen over the last few years, they have firmed since bottoming out in the fall. Smaller producers are likely to continue to struggle in the current price environment; however, large operations will look to cover the high fixed costs associated with rapid expansion and modernization as long they can cover their variable costs, at least in the short term. This, coupled with government support, is expected to accelerate trends towards continued consolidation, providing incentives for large operations to keep raising and marketing pigs – assuming the

sector can effectively manage endemic ASF. Plentiful supplies of domestic pork will weigh on import demand, causing 2022 pork imports to be lowered 12 percent from the prior forecast. Although 5 percent lower year-over-year, 2022 imports remain elevated by historical standards. Overall, pork supplies are expected to reach 53.7 million tons in 2022 as higher production more than offsets weaker imports.

Meanwhile, the total supply of chicken meat in 2022 is expected to reach 15.1 million tons, 1 percent lower than projected in October. This is largely the result of slowing imports at the end of 2021, with this trend being carried into the new year. Greater pork availability coupled with chicken meat production that is well above pre-ASF levels is expected to put pressure on chicken meat imports, causing the import forecast to to be lowered 11 percent.

Beef supply is also expected to be down nearly 1 percent this year at 10.2 million tons on steady import expectations

and a slightly lower production estimate. Imports continue to make up an increasing share of consumption as the

Chinese diet evolves and as domestic product struggles to compete on both price and quality.

(2)

Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

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Beef

• Global beef production for 2022 is raised from October at 58.2 million tons. Brazil beef production is lowered 2 percent for 2021 due to disrupted sales to China in the fourth quarter. In September, Brazil reported detection of atypical bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), causing China to temporarily restrict beef imports, leading to delayed slaughter of cattle over this time period. However, the issue has since been resolved and strong import demand from China is expected to help spur Brazil beef production in 2022. In Australia, 2022 production is higher than previously forecast with herd rebuilding well underway and some slaughter deferred in December under adverse weather impacting transportation. These changes offset cuts to the European Union (EU) and China, with the latter moderating production growth on ample global beef supplies.

• Global beef exports for 2022 are up 1 percent at 12.0 million tons as gains in Argentina, Australia, and Brazil more than offset small declines in the EU and Japan. Global imports are unchanged. With resolution of the BSE trade issue between Brazil and China, China beef imports are unchanged as strong demand propels shipments 10

percent higher year-over-year.

Pork

• Global pork production for 2022 is revised up 5 percent from October to 109.9 million tons on higher production in China, itself up 13 percent from the prior forecast to 49.5 million tons (+ 1 percent year-over-year). The Chinese breeding herd reportedly peaked mid-2021 and has since been under pressure, but 2022 beginning sow inventories are expected to be above year-ago levels. Productivity is also rising as less efficient sows are culled and this is expected to support market hog availablity, particularly in the first half of the year. Gains in China more than offset slightly lower estimates for Mexico, where lower carcass weights are expected

to curb production, and the United States, where tighter supplies of market hogs at the end of 2021 and fractionally fewer sows expected to be farrowed in the first half of 2022, will limit production in 2022.

• Global pork exports in 2022 are estimated at 12.3 million tons, 3 percent below the prior forecast, on weaker demand from top importer China. Lower China imports more than offset higher demand from Japan (+2 percent) and South Korea (+3 percent) where economic recovery and greater pork availability on international markets will support trade. Mexico imports are also estimated 4 percent higher than the prior forecast as pent-up consumer demand and higher remittances from the United States keep trade robust.

Chicken Meat

• Global chicken meat production for 2022 is forecast at 100.8 million tons, virtually unchanged from October. An improved outlook for U.S. production is generally offset by lowered expectation for growth in the EU which continues to be stymied by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks. Brazil production is raised marginally to a record 14.8 million tons on relatively robust foreign and domestic demand. The outlook for China remains unchanged as large integrated firms are able to weather lower broiler meat prices due to profitability in hatcheries and processing.

• Global chicken meat exports for 2022 are raised 1 percent to 13.4 million tons. Leading exporter Brazil is forecast at a record 4.3 million tons despite a downturn in Chinese demand. The United States is forecast less than 1 percent higher at 3.4 million tons on improved outlooks for major markets (Mexico, Cuba and Angola). Thailand exports are revised lower as its industry continues to recover from COVID-19 spurred labor constraints and reduced shipping container availability. However, Thailand shipments will be at a pre-COVID-19 level.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 2 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(3)

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Beef and Veal

Beef Summary Tables.……….. 4 Cattle Summary Tables………. 6 Pork

Pork Summary Tables………. 8 Swine Summary Tables………. 10 Chicken Meat

Chicken Meat Summary Tables ……….. 12

Notes to Readers ……… 14

Table of Contents

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 3 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(4)

Beef and Veal Production - Selected Countries Summary 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Production

3,020 3,000

3,045 3,170

3,125 3,050

Argentina 3,020

2,070 1,900

1,915 2,125

2,432 2,309

Australia 2,115

9,700 9,325

9,500 10,100

10,200 9,900

Brazil 9,750

1,430 1,450

1,450 1,314

1,342 1,265

Canada 1,430

7,000 6,830

6,830 6,720

6,670 6,440

China 6,920

6,830 6,835

6,840 6,883

6,964 7,067

European Union 6,800

4 5

5 5

5 6

Hong Kong 4

485 475

480 477

471 475

Japan 485

325 310

310 287

286 279

Korea, South 325

2,190 2,120

2,120 2,079

2,027 1,980

Mexico 2,190

704 745

730 727

713 672

New Zealand 709

12,053 11,868

11,868 11,384

12,022 12,019

Others 12,053

45,811 44,863

45,093 45,271

46,257 45,462

Total Foreign 45,801

12,306 12,736

12,684 12,389

12,385 12,256

United States 12,383

58,117 57,599

57,777 57,660

58,642 57,718

Total 58,184

none none

Total Dom. Consumption

2,348 2,279

2,333 2,365

2,379 2,568

Argentina 2,298

670 605

650 669

708 741

Australia 665

7,120 7,065

6,997 7,609

7,929 7,925

Brazil 7,140

1,055 1,053

1,078 1,047

1,029 1,014

Canada 1,050

10,229 9,763

9,810 9,486

8,826 7,808

China 10,149

6,470 6,445

6,475 6,521

6,698 6,753

European Union 6,430

404 390

465 518

361 527

Hong Kong 389

1,305 1,273

1,285 1,295

1,319 1,298

Japan 1,300

915 900

900 831

832 790

Korea, South 915

2,020 1,975

1,990 1,898

1,901 1,902

Mexico 2,010

100 81

91 101

104 82

New Zealand 96

11,431 11,305

11,305 11,198

11,881 11,859

Others 11,431

44,067 43,134

43,379 43,538

43,967 43,267

Total Foreign 43,873

12,259 12,718

12,615 12,531

12,409 12,181

United States 12,390

56,326 55,852

55,994 56,069

56,376 55,448

Total 56,263

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. India includes carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 4 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(5)

Beef and Veal Trade - Selected Countries Summary 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Total Imports

8 9

8 14

17 19

Argentina 8

20 25

25 17

15 14

Australia 20

75 60

72 48

43 46

Brazil 70

220 210

225 250

204 236

Canada 220

3,250 2,950

3,000 2,782

2,177 1,369

China 3,250

340 305

320 351

435 422

European Union 320

400 385

460 513

356 521

Hong Kong 385

835 820

815 832

853 840

Japan 830

575 595

595 549

550 515

Korea, South 575

200 200

200 162

189 194

Mexico 200

12 11

11 12

14 12

New Zealand 12

2,722 2,734

2,734 2,651

2,858 2,828

Others 2,722

8,657 8,304

8,465 8,181

7,711 7,016

Total Foreign 8,612

1,436 1,522

1,445 1,516

1,387 1,360

United States 1,481

10,093 9,826

9,910 9,697

9,098 8,376

Total 10,093

none none

Total Exports

680 730

720 819

763 501

Argentina 730

1,420 1,320

1,290 1,473

1,739 1,582

Australia 1,470

2,655 2,320

2,575 2,539

2,314 2,021

Brazil 2,680

600 605

595 513

525 478

Canada 605

21 17

20 16

21 21

China 21

700 695

685 713

701 736

European Union 690

0 0

0 0

0 0

Hong Kong 0

20 11

13 7

6 5

Japan 15

0 0

0 0

0 0

Korea, South 0

370 345

330 343

315 272

Mexico 380

616 675

650 638

623 602

New Zealand 625

3,344 3,297

3,297 2,837

2,999 2,988

Others 3,344

10,426 10,015

10,175 9,898

10,006 9,206

Total Foreign 10,560

1,483 1,567

1,549 1,339

1,373 1,433

United States 1,483

11,909 11,582

11,724 11,237

11,379 10,639

Total 12,043

Notes: Includes meat of other bovines for certain countries. Indian exports are carabeef (water buffalo). The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 5 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(6)

Cattle Stocks - Selected Countries Summary (in 1,000 head)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Total Cattle Beg. Stks

53,450 53,540

53,540 54,461

55,008 54,793

Argentina 53,740

23,821 23,021

23,021 23,655

25,699 26,176

Australia 23,971

263,800 252,700

252,700 244,144

238,158 232,350

Brazil 264,100

10,980 11,150

11,150 11,265

11,500 11,565

Canada 10,930

99,500 95,620

95,620 91,380

89,153 90,387

China 99,500

75,725 76,462

76,462 77,161

77,840 79,010

European Union 75,750

3,980 3,960

3,960 3,907

3,835 3,842

Japan 3,998

3,887 3,774

nr 3,645

3,521 3,429

Korea, South 3,887

17,258 17,000

17,000 16,900

16,699 16,584

Mexico 17,370

10,180 10,063

10,063 10,151

10,107 10,146

New Zealand 10,129

356,534 355,610

355,610 352,959

352,714 352,476

Others 356,534

919,115 902,900

902,900 889,628

884,234 880,758

Total Foreign 919,909

92,000 93,595

93,595 93,793

94,805 94,298

United States 91,800

1,011,115 996,495

996,495 983,421

979,039 975,056

Total 1,011,709

none none

Production (Calf Crop)

14,500 14,400

14,400 14,300

14,965 14,851

Argentina 14,550

8,600 8,200

8,200 8,300

8,700 9,100

Australia 8,800

53,300 52,000

52,000 51,500

50,490 49,500

Brazil 53,300

4,350 4,400

4,400 4,345

4,336 4,347

Canada 4,350

52,500 52,200

52,200 51,900

50,750 46,400

China 52,500

24,740 24,870

24,850 24,970

25,365 25,461

European Union 24,750

1,245 1,245

1,245 1,240

1,235 1,224

Japan 1,245

1,136 1,089

nr 1,026

1,021 968

Korea, South 1,136

8,300 8,150

8,150 8,000

7,900 7,700

Mexico 8,300

5,065 5,337

5,352 5,135

5,127 4,895

New Zealand 5,121

86,210 86,155

86,155 86,151

85,615 85,142

Others 86,210

259,946 258,046

258,041 256,867

255,504 249,588

Total Foreign 260,262

34,700 35,100

35,100 35,136

35,592 36,313

United States 34,700

294,646 293,146

293,141 292,003

291,096 285,901

Total 294,962

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 6 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(7)

Cattle Trade - Selected Countries Summary (in 1,000 head)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Total Imports

0 0

0 0

0 0

Argentina 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Australia 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Brazil 0

360 400

350 277

275 202

Canada 360

350 370

370 325

389 518

China 350

35 25

30 42

99 71

European Union 25

10 13

10 15

18 14

Japan 13

0 0

nr 0

0 0

Korea, South 0

45 75

60 37

29 24

Mexico 60

0 0

0 0

0 0

New Zealand 0

293 273

273 419

478 386

Others 293

1,093 1,156

1,093 1,115

1,288 1,215

Total Foreign 1,101

2,000 1,780

1,800 2,114

2,043 1,899

United States 2,025

3,093 2,936

2,893 3,229

3,331 3,114

Total 3,126

none none

Total Exports

0 0

0 0

0 0

Argentina 0

900 800

800 1,109

1,344 1,151

Australia 900

120 62

60 329

535 785

Brazil 120

570 660

560 675

725 631

Canada 590

16 16

16 16

17 19

China 16

1,050 1,050

1,050 1,123

1,070 1,060

European Union 1,040

0 0

0 0

0 0

Japan 0

0 0

nr 0

0 0

Korea, South 0

1,460 1,200

1,280 1,485

1,381 1,278

Mexico 1,460

140 115

105 113

40 17

New Zealand 120

305 296

296 240

292 513

Others 305

4,561 4,199

4,167 5,090

5,404 5,454

Total Foreign 4,551

325 510

475 321

307 244

United States 325

4,886 4,709

4,642 5,411

5,711 5,698

Total 4,876

Notes: May contain other bovines. The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 7 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(8)

Pork Production - Selected Countries Summary 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Production

4,450 4,325

4,325 4,125

3,975 3,763

Brazil 4,455

2,150 2,150

2,150 2,115

2,000 1,955

Canada 2,150

43,750 48,850

46,000 36,340

42,550 54,040

China 49,500

23,660 23,680

23,680 23,219

22,996 23,156

European Union 23,660

71 72

70 63

74 128

Hong Kong 70

1,325 1,315

1,320 1,306

1,279 1,284

Japan 1,330

1,365 1,375

1,375 1,403

1,364 1,329

Korea, South 1,365

1,560 1,485

1,495 1,451

1,408 1,321

Mexico 1,540

1,000 1,000

1,000 1,115

1,585 1,601

Philippines 1,000

12,330 12,129

12,129 11,773

11,255 11,396

Others 12,330

91,661 96,381

93,544 82,910

88,486 99,973

Total Foreign 97,400

12,519 12,568

12,559 12,845

12,543 11,943

United States 12,487

104,180 108,949

106,103 95,755

101,029 111,916

Total 109,887

none none

Total Dom. Consumption

3,073 3,006

3,032 2,949

3,116 3,043

Brazil 3,098

880 916

851 858

947 913

Canada 960

48,410 53,150

50,400 41,521

44,866 55,295

China 53,600

18,660 18,730

18,780 18,201

18,894 19,654

European Union 18,780

506 457

470 441

405 539

Hong Kong 490

2,735 2,749

2,730 2,732

2,714 2,774

Japan 2,765

1,985 1,931

1,919 1,976

2,011 2,001

Korea, South 2,003

2,295 2,305

2,220 2,052

2,159 2,116

Mexico 2,365

1,374 1,459

1,499 1,281

1,806 1,883

Philippines 1,374

13,743 13,545

13,545 13,008

12,891 13,102

Others 13,743

93,661 98,248

95,446 85,019

89,809 101,320

Total Foreign 99,178

9,659 9,896

9,799 10,034

10,066 9,747

United States 9,902

103,320 108,144

105,245 95,053

99,875 111,067

Total 109,080

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 8 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(9)

Pork Trade - Selected Countries Summary 1,000 Metric Tons (Carcass Weight Equivalent)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Total Imports

3 3

2 2

2 2

Brazil 3

270 260

260 273

242 228

Canada 270

4,750 4,400

4,500 5,281

2,451 1,457

China 4,200

100 100

100 160

164 169

European Union 100

435 385

400 378

331 411

Hong Kong 420

1,425 1,425

1,400 1,412

1,493 1,480

Japan 1,450

600 565

550 554

694 753

Korea, South 620

1,125 1,150

1,100 945

985 972

Mexico 1,175

375 460

500 167

222 283

Philippines 375

2,284 2,316

2,316 2,144

2,350 2,350

Others 2,284

11,367 11,064

11,128 11,316

8,934 8,105

Total Foreign 10,897

519 540

502 410

429 473

United States 590

11,886 11,604

11,630 11,726

9,363 8,578

Total 11,487

none none

Total Exports

1,380 1,322

1,295 1,178

861 722

Brazil 1,360

1,565 1,480

1,550 1,544

1,284 1,277

Canada 1,480

90 100

100 100

135 202

China 100

5,100 5,050

5,000 5,178

4,266 3,671

European Union 4,980

0 0

0 0

0 0

Hong Kong 0

5 6

5 4

3 4

Japan 5

5 10

7 5

2 1

Korea, South 7

390 330

375 344

234 177

Mexico 350

1 1

1 1

1 1

Philippines 1

871 900

900 909

714 644

Others 871

9,407 9,199

9,233 9,263

7,500 6,699

Total Foreign 9,154

3,359 3,215

3,265 3,302

2,867 2,666

United States 3,175

12,766 12,414

12,498 12,565

10,367 9,365

Total 12,329

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 9 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(10)

Swine Stocks - Selected Countries Summary (in 1,000 head)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Total Beginning Stocks

36,350 37,350

37,350 37,850

38,427 38,829

Brazil 36,350

13,650 14,025

14,025 13,970

13,975 14,170

Canada 13,650

400,000 406,500

406,500 310,410

428,070 441,589

China 410,000

145,400 146,228

146,228 143,146

143,519 145,544

European Union 145,620

9,110 9,290

9,290 9,090

9,156 9,280

Japan 9,110

11,000 11,078

nr 11,280

11,333 11,273

Korea, South 11,000

11,775 11,500

11,500 11,050

10,700 10,410

Mexico 11,775

36,900 36,488

36,488 35,631

34,398 33,894

Others 36,900

664,185 672,459

672,459 572,427

689,578 704,989

Total Foreign 674,405

74,750 77,312

76,822 76,833

75,070 73,145

United States 74,201

738,935 749,771

749,281 649,260

764,648 778,134

Total 748,606

none none

Production (Pig Crop)

45,300 44,515

44,515 43,525

42,250 40,954

Brazil 45,300

30,500 30,200

30,200 29,550

28,351 28,032

Canada 30,350

570,000 630,000

580,000 565,000

440,000 687,500

China 645,000

256,000 257,200

257,000 256,500

253,325 256,050

European Union 256,000

17,330 17,000

17,000 17,230

16,770 16,690

Japan 17,250

19,600 19,500

nr 19,733

19,889 19,118

Korea, South 19,600

21,750 20,810

20,810 20,291

19,650 18,650

Mexico 21,750

77,450 77,520

77,520 75,699

72,650 69,263

Others 77,450

1,037,930 1,096,745

1,046,545 1,027,528

892,885 1,136,257

Total Foreign 1,112,700

138,020 132,904

132,822 140,680

137,588 132,568

United States 136,770

1,175,950 1,229,649

1,179,367 1,168,208

1,030,473 1,268,825

Total 1,249,470

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 10 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(11)

Swine Trade - Selected Countries Summary (in 1,000 head)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Total Imports

1 2

1 2

1 1

Brazil 2

0 3

4 6

6 3

Canada 0

35 40

35 29

1 8

China 40

5 5

5 19

13 17

European Union 5

2 1

1 3

0 1

Japan 2

1 1

nr 1

1 2

Korea, South 1

25 15

15 25

37 33

Mexico 25

520 518

518 529

392 602

Others 520

589 585

580 614

451 667

Total Foreign 595

5,675 6,681

6,693 5,293

5,096 5,250

United States 5,725

6,264 7,266

7,273 5,907

5,547 5,917

Total 6,320

none none

Total Exports

3 2

3 3

9 8

Brazil 2

5,700 6,700

6,710 5,311

5,113 5,263

Canada 5,750

800 825

875 718

945 1,580

China 800

610 580

600 492

828 1,011

European Union 600

0 0

0 0

0 0

Japan 0

0 0

nr 0

0 0

Korea, South 0

0 0

0 0

0 0

Mexico 0

42 43

43 62

21 19

Others 42

7,155 8,150

8,231 6,586

6,916 7,881

Total Foreign 7,194

65 57

59 56

60 64

United States 65

7,220 8,207

8,290 6,642

6,976 7,945

Total 7,259

Note: The notation of a month beneath a year conveys the month in which the forecast for that year was released.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 11 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(12)

Chicken Meat Production - Selected Countries Summary 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Production

32 31

31 30

28 27

Angola 32

14,720 14,500

14,350 13,880

13,690 13,355

Brazil 14,750

1,400 1,360

1,360 1,305

1,331 1,301

Canada 1,400

14,300 14,700

14,000 14,600

13,800 11,700

China 14,300

23 23

23 23

23 24

Cuba 23

11,100 10,850

10,930 11,020

10,836 10,618

European Union 10,910

275 275

275 255

235 219

Iraq 275

1,780 1,765

1,765 1,749

1,723 1,685

Japan 1,780

965 935

935 962

952 915

Korea, South 965

3,900 3,815

3,815 3,725

3,600 3,485

Mexico 3,900

1,360 1,330

1,330 1,305

1,450 1,380

Philippines 1,360

940 910

920 900

800 710

Saudi Arabia 920

1,600 1,495

1,525 1,510

1,395 1,407

South Africa 1,580

3,380 3,280

3,280 3,250

3,300 3,170

Thailand 3,340

24,574 24,254

24,254 24,294

24,103 23,476

Others 24,574

80,349 79,523

78,793 78,808

77,266 73,472

Total Foreign 80,109

20,548 20,378

20,310 20,255

19,941 19,361

United States 20,712

100,897 99,901

99,103 99,063

97,207 92,833

Total 100,821

none none

Total Dom. Consumption

277 286

261 243

294 344

Angola 297

10,545 10,280

10,300 10,010

9,756 9,588

Brazil 10,430

1,460 1,412

1,420 1,363

1,375 1,339

Canada 1,457

14,760 15,030

14,450 15,211

13,952 11,595

China 14,640

323 368

348 285

312 304

Cuba 343

9,885 9,685

9,695 9,650

9,448 9,347

European Union 9,755

655 650

655 723

729 748

Iraq 650

2,807 2,821

2,796 2,757

2,789 2,761

Japan 2,832

1,095 1,065

1,065 1,066

1,070 1,040

Korea, South 1,095

4,802 4,737

4,698 4,560

4,469 4,301

Mexico 4,832

1,900 1,750

1,860 1,640

1,816 1,701

Philippines 1,760

1,440 1,465

1,400 1,485

1,359 1,309

Saudi Arabia 1,500

1,930 1,830

1,868 1,891

1,829 1,877

South Africa 1,904

2,380 2,320

2,290 2,299

2,389 2,255

Thailand 2,400

26,876 26,499

26,499 26,564

26,394 25,785

Others 26,876

81,135 80,198

79,605 79,747

77,981 74,294

Total Foreign 80,771

17,221 17,118

16,989 16,994

16,702 16,185

United States 17,361

98,356 97,316

96,594 96,741

94,683 90,479

Total 98,132

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 12 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(13)

Chicken Meat Trade - Selected Countries Summary 1,000 Metric Tons (Ready to Cook Equivalent)

2018 2019 2020 2021

Oct

2021 Jan

2022 Oct

2022 Jan

none none

Total Imports

245 255

230 213

266 317

Angola 265

5 5

5 5

5 3

Brazil 5

195 185

190 188

172 170

Canada 190

900 785

875 999

580 342

China 800

300 345

325 262

289 280

Cuba 320

610 615

540 663

760 733

European Union 635

380 375

380 468

494 529

Iraq 375

1,035 1,050

1,025 1,005

1,076 1,074

Japan 1,060

180 175

175 170

178 163

Korea, South 180

910 930

890 842

875 820

Mexico 940

540 420

530 335

366 321

Philippines 400

540 600

520 618

601 629

Saudi Arabia 625

385 380

395 434

485 521

South Africa 370

1 1

1 2

2 2

Thailand 1

4,498 4,301

4,301 4,441

4,312 4,106

Others 4,498

10,724 10,422

10,382 10,645

10,461 10,010

Total Foreign 10,664

67 72

69 66

61 64

United States 67

10,791 10,494

10,451 10,711

10,522 10,074

Total 10,731

none none

Total Exports

0 0

0 0

0 0

Angola 0

4,180 4,225

4,055 3,875

3,939 3,770

Brazil 4,325

135 133

130 128

124 124

Canada 133

440 455

425 388

428 447

China 460

0 0

0 0

0 0

Cuba 0

1,825 1,780

1,775 2,033

2,148 2,004

European Union 1,790

0 0

0 0

0 0

Iraq 0

8 5

5 8

7 7

Japan 8

55 35

35 56

50 33

Korea, South 55

8 8

7 7

6 4

Mexico 8

0 0

0 0

0 0

Philippines 0

40 45

40 33

42 30

Saudi Arabia 45

55 45

52 53

51 51

South Africa 46

1,010 930

990 941

961 925

Thailand 960

2,196 2,061

2,061 2,166

2,014 1,809

Others 2,196

9,952 9,722

9,575 9,688

9,770 9,204

Total Foreign 10,026

3,387 3,367

3,421 3,376

3,259 3,244

United States 3,403

13,339 13,089

12,996 13,064

13,029 12,448

Total 13,429

Notes: Chicken paws are excluded.

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 13 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(14)

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

The Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade circular is designed to give a snapshot of the current situation among the major players in world beef, pork, and chicken meat trade.

Data Revisions in PSDs for Years Prior to 2020:

No revisions are made based on new and/or additional information.

Assumptions

Diseases: Forecast reflects animal disease policies/restrictions in place as of January 12, 2022 and assumes their continuation.

Trade Actions: This report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these forecasts.

Technical Notes

CWE/PWE: All quantities (beef and pork) noted are in Carcass Weight Equivalent (CWE) unless otherwise noted as Product Weight Equivalent (PWE). CWE is the weight of an animal after slaughter and removal of most internal organs, head, and skin. PWE is the actual weight of the meat product exported.

RTC (Ready-to-Cook): RTC means any slaughtered poultry free from protruding pinfeathers and vestigial feathers (hair or down), from which the head, feet, crop, oil gland, trachea, esophagus, entrails, and lungs have been removed, and from which the mature reproductive organs and kidneys may have been removed, and with or without the giblets, and which is suitable for cooking without need of further processing Ready-to-cook poultry also means any cut-up or disjointed portion of poultry or other parts of poultry, such as reproductive organs, head, or feet that are suitable for cooking without need of further processing.

Notes to Readers

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 14 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(15)

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Conversion Rates and HS Codes

Chicken Meat Trade Codes: Fresh/Chilled (HS 020711 and HS 020713), Frozen (HS 020712 and HS 020714) and Processed (HS 160232). In general, chicken paws are excluded. Trade of “salted poultry” (HS 021099) is included in EU and UK imports as well as the exports of selected countries.

PSD Online

The entire USDA PSD database is available online at: http://www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline.

Additional Resources

• Situation and outlook information on U.S. livestock and poultry can be obtained from the USDA-Economic Research Service at: https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/.

HS Code Description Conversion Rate

020110 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, fresh or chilled 1.00

020120 Bovine cuts bone in, fresh or chilled 1.00

020130 Bovine cuts boneless, fresh or chilled 1.36

020210 Bovine carcasses and half carcasses, frozen 1.00

020220 Bovine cuts bone in, frozen 1.00

020230 Bovine cuts boneless, frozen 1.36

021020 Bovine meat salted, dried or smoked 1.74

160250 Bovine meat, offal nes, not livers, prepared/preserve 1.79

HS Code Description Conversion Rate

020311 Carcasses/half-carcasses, fr/ch 1.00

020312 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, fr/ch 1.11

020319 Other pork cuts, fr/ch 1.30

020321 Carcasses/half-carcasses, frozen 1.00

020322 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, frozen 1.11

020329 Other pork cuts, frozen 1.30

021011 Bone-In hams, shoulders and cuts thereof, processed 1.30 021012 Bellies (streaky) and cuts thereof, processed 1.16

021019 Other meat of swine, processed 1.16

160241 Hams and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30

160242 Shoulders and cuts thereof, prep/pres 1.30

160249 Other meat of swine including mixtures, prep/pres 1.30

Notes: Beef and veal estimates include meat of other bovines for certain countries. In particular, India estimates include carabeef (water buffalo). Exports of HS 160250 are partially excluded from Argentina export estimates.

PORK BEEF AND VEAL

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 15 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

(16)

Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade

Future Releases and Contact Information

Please visit http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade to view archived and future releases Livestock and Poultry estimates will be published four times per year (January, April, July, October) for selected countries. However, all countries will be updated in April and October. The next release of this circular is April 8, 2022.

Country/Commodities for January and July Releases

Countries Beef Pork Chicken Meat

Angola x

Argentina x

Australia x

Brazil x x x

Canada x x x

China x x x

Cuba x

EU x x x

Hong Kong x x

Iraq x

Japan x x x

Mexico x x x

New Zealand x

Philippines x x

Saudi Arabia x

South Africa x

South Korea x x x

Thailand x

United States x x x

Questions may be directed to the following staff:

Kevin Min Jake Vuillemin

(202) 720-0626 (202) 690-4476

Kevin.Min1@usda.gov Jacob.Vuillemin@usda.gov

Cattle and Beef Swine and Pork Claire Mezoughem (202) 720-7715 Claire.Mezoughem@usda.gov Chicken Meat

Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA 16 January 2022

Global Market Analysis

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