Ecological Problems: Their Study and Solution in the USSR

W O R K I N G P A P E R

ECOLOGICAL PROBLEMS:

THEIR STUDY AND SOLUTION IN THE USSR

Academician A.L. Yanshin

October 1987 WP-87-103

l n l e r n a l ~ o n a l I n s l ~ l u l e lor A p p l ~ e d Syslems A n a l y s ~ s

ECOIDGICAL PROBLEMS: THEIR

AND SOLUTION IN THE USSR

A c a d e m i c i a n A.L. Yanshin

October 1987 WP-87-103

W o r k i n g P a p e r s are interim r e p o r t s on work of t h e International Institute f o r Applied Systems Analysis and have r e c e i v e d only limited review. Views or opinions e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o not necessarily r e p r e s e n t t h o s e of t h e Institute or of i t s National Member Organizations.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

FOREWORD

This p a p e r i s to a p p e a r in t h e Proceedings of t h e Workshop on Ecological Sus- tainability of Regional Development, held in Vilnius, Lithuania, USSR, 22-26 June, 1987. The a u t h o r Academician Yanshin i s a distinguished ecologist and f r i e n d of IIASA who always h a s something important to say. That i s why t h i s work i s being published as a IIASA Working P a p e r , i.e., to provide e a r l i e r publication and to r e a c h a wider audience.

Academician Yanshin gives a n interesting account of t h e work of t h e Soviet Scientific Council on Problems of t h e B i w p h e r e , citing v e r y c o n c r e t e examples of i t s s u c c e s s in t h e field of environmental management o v e r t h e l a s t decade. No doubt t h i s i s due to t h e l e a d e r s h o p of Academician Yanshin himself.

The p a p e r a l s o provides some interesting p e r s p e c t i v e s on Vladimir Vernad- sky, t h e g r e a t Soviet ecologist, w h w e book The Biosphere (1926) i s a classic.

R. E. Munn L e a d e r

Environment P r o g r a m

E C O ~ I C A L

THEIR

AND SOLUTION IN THE USSR*

A c a d e m i c i a n A.L. Y a n s h i n Vice President,

Academy of Scienoes of t h e USSR

The t e r m "ecology" w a s suggested one hundred y e a r s a g o by t h e German Darwinist E r n s t Haeckel to denote a science t h a t includes studies of t h e relation- ships of plants and animals with o e r t a i n physico-geographical conditions. Studies of t h e s e relationships were t h e n being c a r r i e d out but t h e relationships them- selves w e r e assumed to be unchangeable. In t h e XIXth c e n t u r y t h e problem of t h e i r changes, and of t h e evolution of ecological relationships, had not y e t been formulated; even t h e problem of human ecology had not a r i s e n . This probably resulted from old religious notions t h a t human beings are above n a t u r e and human society develops according to i t s own laws independent of t h e laws of t h e develop- ment of n a t u r e . Only t h e m o s t intelligent people at t h a t time r e f l e c t e d on what w e now call "human biosocial nature", believing t h a t human society should develop ac- cording to t h e laws of n a t u r e and not c o n t r a r y to them. That idea w a s e x p r e s s e d most c l e a r l y by Friedrich Engels, who w a s one of t h e g r e a t e s t n a t u r a l scientists.

The time f o r e s e e n by Engels has now come. The g e n e r a l laws of evolution t h a t are common to both human society and living and non-living n a t u r e which s u r r o u n d s us have been considered by o u r contemporaries-including t h e Soviet scientists V.G. Afanasyev, N.N. Moisseyev, D.K. Belyaev, I.T. Frolov, S.P. Mikulinsky and oth- e r s , by t h e scientists from t h e Club of Rome, and in t h e r e c e n t l y published book by Ervin Laszlo E v o l u t t o h : m e Recent a n t h e s i s . In t h e s e works a n attempt h a s been made to consider t h e social evolution of human society as a historioally inevitable n a t u r a l process. Some personalities oan slow down, o r hinder t h a t p r o c e s s , but they cannot s t o p it.

The f i r s t scientist who considered human society as p a r t of t h e history of t h e b i w p h e r e of t h e E a r t h w a s Vladimir Vernadsky. The 125th a n n i v e r s a r y of his b i r t h will be c e l e b r a t e d in March 1988 in t h e Soviet Union and many o t h e r coun- t r i e s , e.g., Czechoslovakia, France, and t h e United States of America, although Vernadsky's work i s not sufficiently known in w e s t e r n countries. In his e a r l y pa- p e r s at t h e end of t h e XIXth c e n t u r y , V.I. Vernadsky pointed to t h e huge and rapid- ly growing scale of human activity, quite comparable with t h e m o s t powerful geo- logical and geochemical p r o c e s s e s occurring in t h e u p p e r shell of t h e E a r t h . In t h e s e p a p e r s Vernadsky warned t h a t a dramatic growth of human activity would inevitably produoe situations dangerous f o r mankind itself, if t h a t activity did not proceed in a c c o r d a n c e with n a t u r a l processes, but conflicted with them, disrupting t h e n a t u r a l c o u r s e of events. He warned t h a t ignorance of n a t u r a l p r o c e s s e s and of t h e w a y s of t h e i r development and neglect f o r t h e s e p r o c e s s e s may r e s u l t in

*In: EcoLogicaL*stainabiLity qfRegionaLlkvcLopnrent. Proceedings of e Workshop held in Vllnius, Lithuenie, USSR, 22-26 June 1987. L. Keiriukatis, A. Bureces, end A. Stressek (Eds.), 1988, Sya- terns Reseerch Institute, Pollsh Acedemy of Sciences, Wersew, Polend.

conflicts between human society and n a t u r e .

In his l a t e r works at t h e t u r n of t h e century, Vernadsky focused on t h e prob- lem of a new science-geochemistry, which w a s emerging at t h a t time and of a n old science-mineralogy, which he had considerably renewed by his genetic a p p r o a c h . In t h e s e works Vernadsky carefully studied t h e behavior of e a c h element in t h e biosphere-the E a r t h ' s shell where living matter exists; h e discovered t h e r o l e of e a c h chemical element in human activities. A t t h a t time some of t h e chemical ele- ments of t h e Mendeleyev's periodic system w e r e not known to b e of p r a c t i c a l value.

Now, a l l of them are not only used, but also chemical compounds of t h e s e elements are c r e a t e d t h a t d o not o c c u r in nature. For instance, such elements as gold and s i l v e r w e r e n e v e r found in a natural s t a t e but only as compounds. Now, p u r e alumi- num, i r o n and titanium are produced in v a s t quantities. People have obtained t h e s e absolutely new forms of chemical elements unknown in nature.

A t t h e General Assembly of t h e Academy of Sciences in 1911, Vernadsky p r e s e n t e d a very interesting r e p o r t . He pointed out t h a t in future. mankind will definitely l e a r n how to use t h e e n e r g y of atomic fission and t h u s g e t a s o u r c e of en- e r g y of such a power t h a t w a s not known before. That i s v e r y significant since t h e r e p o r t w a s made only about 10 y e a r s a f t e r Becquerel and P i e r r e and Marie Curie discovered radioactivity. In 1911 no scientist took t h i s prediction seriously. In 1922, Vernadsky r e p e a t e d t h a t prediction and said t h a t t h e time of mastering nu- c l e a r e n e r g y w a s at hand. F o r t h e f i r s t time h e r a i s e d t h e question: will mankind use t h i s tremendous s o u r c e of e n e r g y f o r increasing i t s wealth or f o r self- destruction? A c l e a r warning w a s issued by Vernadsky baak in 1922! A little l a t e r , in 1923, Vernadsky left Russia f o r P r a g u e and P a r i s where f o r t w o y e a r s h e lec- t u r e d in geochemistry. In his l e c t u r e s he revealed t h e r o l e of e a c h chemical ele- ment in t h e p r o c e s s e s in t h e biosphere including human activity; t h a t activity w a s considered by Vernadsky to b e a biospheric process.

A s a r e s u l t of his investigation, a new science appeared-bio-geochemistry.

i.e., geochemistry associated with life, with t h e activity of living organisms and liv- ing m a t t e r of t h e biosphere.

During t h e following y e a r s Vernadsky paid a lot of attention to t h e investiga- tions of a l l t h e p a r a m e t e r s of t h e biosphere and not only to t h e chemical p r o c e s s e s in it. The questions h e studied included: how much s o l a r e n e r g y i s consumed by g r e e n plants; what i s t h e mechanism of t h e formation of elementary o r g a n i c sub- s t a n c e s by plants powered by s o l a r energy; and, what i s t h e mass of living matter in t h e p r e s e n t biosphere. A t t h e same t i m e t h e f i r s t s t e p had been taken in investi- gations of t h e evolution of t h e biosphere as p a r t of t h e history of t h e E a r t h .

In 1926, Vernadsky's fundamental work Ths Biosphere w a s published. I r e g r e t v e r y much t h a t t h i s work h a s not y e t been published in English. We will d o i t in t h e n e a r e s t future. The l e c t u r e s Vernadsky held at t h e Sorbonne were published in Russian and French in his book E s s a y s o n Oeochsmistry. Having generalized in t h e s e works his e a r l y s t d e s of t h e biosphere, Vernadsky continued to study t h e s e problems until his death in 1945.

In 1940, a n o t h e r l a r g e and v e r y important p a p e r w a s published in Russia enti- tled OTt the A u t o t r o p h y of Mankind (this w a s published in French in 1925). The t e r m "autotrophic" w a s introduced by t h e German physiologist W. P f e f f e r to denote g r e e n plants, because only t h e s e plants consume s o l a r e n e r g y by chlorophyll grains. Then t h e s e plants produce elementary o r g a n i c substances, mostly car- bohydrates, and in minor quantities, proteins and various f a t s using c a r b o n diox- ide, w a t e r and mineral substances t h a t are e x t r a c t e d t o g e t h e r with w a t e r by t h e roots of t h e plants. All animals are heterotrophic; t h e y cannot produce o r g a n i c substances out of inorganic ones, they e i t h e r feed on plants or p r e y on e a c h o t h e r . Human beings are a l s o h e t e r o t r o p h i c , as w e r e t h e primitive people of t h e Stone

Age. They were e n t i r e l y dependent on t h e natural environment, d r e s s e d in animal skins, living in h u t s of s t a k e s covered by animal skins, and fed on plants and animal m e a t . Vernadsky pointed out t h a t in t h e p r o c e s s of t h e development of civilization people gradually acquired s o m e autotrophic f e a t u r e s . They learned t o build t h e i r houses of b r i c k s and c o n c r e t e . Modern people are increasingly using synthetic fa- b r i c s f o r t h e i r c l o t h e s and even produce synthetic f u r s out of n a t u r a l g a s and oth- er inorganic substances. I r e c a l l meeting with o u r late President, Alexander Nesmeyanov, to discuss t h e organization of new r e s e r v e s f o r preserving f u r - bearing animals. He asked us, w h y do w e w e d f i r - b e a r i n g a n i m a l s w h e n chemis- t r y Is now able to produce f i r ?

V.I. Vernadsky followed v e r y closely t h e e a r l y attempts to create synthetic food. W e now know t h a t microbiological processes permit production of proteins out of gas, and leaven out of timber w a s t e s . Vernadsky believed t h a t t h e c r e a t i o n of synthetic food will b e a big s t e p toward t h e autotrophy of mankind and i t s in- dependence from t h e environment. Following his idea w e c a n formulate a problem of synthesizing g r e e n chlorophyll p k t i d s by which g r e e n plants consume s o l a r en- e r g y . When people l e a r n how to make synthetic chlorophyll, t h e y will b e a b l e to produce unlimited amounts of food and fodder. This problem h a s not y e t been p r o p e r l y formulated by scientists; however, i t will undoubtedly happen in t h e next 1 0 0 y e a r s .

In t h e middle of t h e 1930s, during t h e l a s t decade of his life, Vernadsky paid special attention to problems of t h e evolution of t h e biosphere, i t s qualitative changes beginning from t h e E a r t h ' s e a r l y days when only microbes inhabited t h e seas and oceans and t h e land w a s devoid of life and until t h e l a t e s t s t a g e in t h e development of t h e biosphere when human beings a p p e a r e d to change t h e bio- s p h e r e . Returning to his e a r l i e r works Vernadsky studied t h e s c a l e s of human ac- tivity in more detail than before. He believed t h a t collective human intellect will transform t h e spontaneously organized biosphere into a rationally controlled noo- sphere (noos i s "intellect" in Greek). The noosphere i s t h a t s t a g e of biosphere development where a collective human intellect h a s transformed i t to meet t h e ma- t e r i a l , spiritual and e s t h e t i c demands of mankind.

In 1977, long a f t e r t h e d e a t h of V.I. Vernadsky, his p a p e r Skientif5c thought as a p l a n e t a r y phenomenon w a s published. T h e r e h e formulated 1 2 conditions essential to t h e transformation of t h e biosphere i n t o t h e noosphere. I will not dis- cuss a l l 1 2 conditions, and merely s a y t h a t according t o Vernadsky t h e main condi- tion f o r t h e formation of t h e noosphere i s removal of t h e t h r e a t of wars. As long as t h e possibility of w a r s e x i s t s , t h e biosphere cannot b e transformed into t h e noo- s p h e r e . Only t h e abolition of wars, only a friendly and peaceful life of a l l t h e peo- ple of o u r planet a a n e n s u r e t h e r i g h t conditions f o r a noosphere.

Vernadsky died on J a n u a r y 5 , 1 9 4 5 . A few months l a t e r nuclear bombs explod- e d o v e r Nagasaki and Hiroshima. Vernadsky's prediction had come t r u e : t h e en- e r g y of n u c l e a r fission had been mastered. Unfortunately up to now a considerable p a r t of t h e e f f o r t s of mankind h a s been spent on stockpiling n u c l e a r weapons. Y e t w e t r u s t t h a t a n agreement will b e r e a c h e d on uses of nuclear e n e r g y f o r peaceful purposes. A t t h e same time, during t h e 42 postwar y e a r s , peaceful uses of nuclear e n e r g y have been increasing. In e a r l i e r times f e a r l e s s e x p l o r e r s r e a c h e d t h e North Pole. Nowadays i a e - b r e a k e r s h i p s with powerful n u c l e a r engines easily pass through i c e hummocks and p o l a r i c e on t h e i r way to t h e North Pole. By means of t h e s e i c e - b r e a k e r s a f r e e passage i s opened through t h e i c e of t h e Arctic Oceans- -from Europe to t h e s h o r e s of t h e F a r East. Nuclear w a t e r distillers are working in d e s e r t s , on t h e coast of seas and s a l t lakes. They provide water f o r drinking and f o r technical purposes and g e n e r a t e considerable amounts of water f o r i r r i g a - tion and planting of g a r d e n s and vineyards in d e s e r t s . A considerable amount of

e l e c t r i c e n e r g y i s now produced by nuclear power plants (50Z in France and 1 7 X in t h e Soviet Union). The Chernobyl tragedy warns a l l people of t h e E a r t h t h a t they should deal with nuclear e n e r g y extremely carefully. We cannot, however, stop developing new s o u r c e s of energy. Scientists in many countries a r e working h a r d on controlled n u c l e a r fusion. W e will probably b e a b l e to use t h e e n e r g y of nu- c l e a r fusion in t h e f o r e s e e a b l e future. The power of mankind will i n c r e a s e tremen- dously if we a g r e e to use t h i s e n e r g y only f o r peaceful purposes.

The p a s t 30 y e a r s c a n b e rightfully called "the Age of t h e Scientific and Tech- nological Revolution". This i s due not only to t h e tapping of nuclear energy. Peo- ple have gone into o u t e r s p a c e and hundreds of s a t e l l i t e s are now orbiting t h e E a r t h , studying both s p a c e and t h e E a r t h ' s s u r f a c e . An entirely new science h a s appeared--studies of t h e E a r t h by s p a c e methods to monitor t h e condition of f o r e s t s , c o r r e c t topographic maps, f o r e c a s t snow melt and r i v e r floods, and assess c r o p s . E a r t h studies by s p a c e methods are useful in many ways.

The dream of Jules Verne h a s come true: people have walked on t h e Moon.

Space instruments a c q u i r e d a t a about a l l planets of t h e s o l a r system and aomets t h a t s t r a y into i t . W e now have a n idea about t h e physical conditions and t h e s u r - f a c e relief of Venus, Mars, J u p i t e r ' s satellites and t h e structure of S a t u r n ' s rings.

A t t h e same time, during t h e s e 30 y e a r s , detailed studies of t h e microcosm, of t h e elementary p a r t i c l e s have been conducted. N e w b r a n c h e s of industry have ap- p e a r e d as e l e c t r o n i c s and microbiology have continued t o advance. The molecular mechanism of t h e t r a n s f e r of h e r e d i t a r y f e a t u r e s h a s been discovered. On t h a t basis a completely new science h a s emerged, i.e., genetic engineering, t h a t h a s al- r e a d y brought important p r a c t i c a l results. During this 30-year period powerful computers have been built; no r e s e a r c h c e n t e r c a n now work without them.

The changes t h a t have o c c u r r e d during t h e p a s t 3 decades a r e tremendous.

They benefit mankind. G r e a t advances have been made combating infectious diseases. In t h e XIXth c e n t u r y , smallpox wiped out t h e whole population of many islands in t h e Pacific. Twelve y e a r s ago, t h e World Health Organization in Geneva announced a reward of $6,000 f o r t h e d o c t o r who would r e p o r t one case of smallpox. The reward h a s not been claimed. Smallpox h a s been eliminated from o u r planet. S t r i d e s have been made in combating o t h e r infeotious diseases.

Mankind's impact on n a t u r e h a s at t h e same time resulted in those conflict si- tuations t h a t V.I. Vernadsky warned against at t h e end of t h e last century. The s h e e r s c a l e of c u l t u r a l activity resulted in t h e pollution of t h e atmosphere, t h e hy- d r o s p h e r e (including t h e o c e a n ) and t h e u p p e r c r u s t .

A t t h e same time a r a p i d growth of t h e population began, leading to s e r i o u s ecological problems. In my youth nobody thought or wrote about t h e s e problems, e x o e p t V.I. Vernadsky, a scientist of true distinction.

A number of new global ecological problems have a p p e a r e d . I will only men- tion some of them. I t h a s now been acoepted by a l l t h e climatologists of t h e world t h a t t h e inorease of c a r b o n dioxide concentrations in t h e atmosphere i s due to t h e burning of vast quantities of fuel in internal combustion engines of vehicles, coal- f i r e d power stations, etc. W e know t h a t t h e c a r b o n dioxide concentrations have not been oonstant throughout t h e history of t h e E a r t h . I recently had g r e a t pleas- u r e in presenting to t h e IIASA l i b r a r y t h e book The Ifistory o f t h e Atmosphere t h a t I wrote in collaboration with Corresponding Members of t h e Academy of Sciences of t h e USSR, M.I. Budyko and A.B. Ronov. W e followed changes in t h e concentrations of various g a s e s in t h e atmosphere during t h e p a s t 500 million y e a r s since skeletal life forms a p p e a r e d on E a r t h . But, l e t us not g o s o f a r back. Let us dwell on what h a s happened during t h e p a s t 50 million y e a r s . From t h e geological point of view t h a t i s a v e r y s h o r t period. Recent c a r b o n dioxide aoncentrations are within 0.03Z; 50 million y e a r s a g o i t w a s 0.4Z. i.e., g r e a t e r by one o r d e r of magnitude. W e

know definitely t h a t at t h a t time even t h e Antarctic had no i c e c o v e r and t h a t i t was inhabited by animals whose skeletons have been found. T h e r e w e r e no drifting ice-floes in t h e Arctic Ocean. High f o r e s t s w e r e growing on Spitsbergen; this i s borne o u t by coal deposits in Barentsburg. A t t h a t time, at 0.4% of c a r b o n dioxide, t h e greenhouse e f f e c t w a s so intense t h a t t h e climate of t h e E a r t h w a s everywhere warm, mild and t h e r e w e r e no i c e c a p s n e a r t h e poles. W e are of c o u r s e v e r y f a r from t h e s e conditions now. The concentration of c a r b o n dioxide i s increasing, however. And i t i s increasing not only in t h e urban areas but n e a r t h e South Pole (according t o t h e measurements of t h e AmundsenScott station) and on small c o r a l islands in t h e Pacific, as well. These measurements show t h a t in some c a s e s t h e concentration of c a r b o n dioxide i s 0.045, i.e., i t h a s i n c r e a s e d by 50% in comparis- on with what i t w a s in t h e f i r s t half of t h e century. Climatologists have revealed a n i n c r e a s e in t h e a v e r a g e t e m p e r a t u r e of t h e lower atmosphere. I t i s still not l a r g e , only one o r two t e n t h s of a d e g r e e , b u t t h e t e m p e r a t u r e i s increasing. Nobody doubts i t and climatologists are now studying how t h i s warming will influence t h e distribution of precipitation. Certain t h e o r i e s seem to b e developing in t h i s con- nection. They need of c o u r s e checking.

In t h e Soviet Union t h r e e Institutes work in t h i s field: t h e Central Hydro- g r a p h i c Institute of t h e S t a t e Committee f o r Hydrometeorology in Leningrad, t h e Institute of Geography, and t h e Institute of Physics of t h e Atmosphere of t h e Academy of Sciences of t h e USSR in Moscow. The l a t t e r h a s a big l a b o r a t o r y on t h e t h e o r y of t h e climate. The t h r e e Institutes have r e p o r t e d interesting d a t a ; t h e signs a r e t h a t by t h e y e a r 2000 a s t r i p of climate more a r i d than at p r e s e n t will form in t h e south of Europe, to c o v e r Spain, Italy, t h e n o r t h e r n Balkans, and t h e Ukraine in t h e Soviet Union. I t will not s t r e t c h f u r t h e r to t h e e a s t , however.

North of t h i s area and, what i s v e r y important to us, south of i t , i.e., in Central Asia t h e amount of precipitation should considerably i n c r e a s e . W e now o b s e r v e t h a t t h e snow c o v e r n e a r Moscow r e a c h e s 60-90 cm. The run-off of t h e Volga h a s considerably increased: i t w a s especially l a r g e in t h e f i r s t half of 1986, when t h e level of t h e Caspian Sea rose by 8 cm. That amount of water w a s provided mostly by t h e Volga and to a l e s s e r e x t e n t by t h e Ural River. N o t everything i s c l e a r , however; absorption of c a r b o n dioxide by t h e World Ocean h a s not been determined a c c u r a t e l y enough, various s c e n a r i o s a r e still being developed, but t h e g e n e r a l t r e n d of t h e climatic p r o c e s s e s h a s a l r e a d y been revealed. One of t h e most impor- t a n t problems of o u r times t h e r e f o r e i s to work out a s c e n a r i o of f u t u r e climatic changes not only f o r one country o r a comparatively small continent such as Eu- r o p e , b u t f o r t h e whole world.

Let us consider some o t h e r global problems t h a t have a p p e a r e d recently. I have a l r e a d y said t h a t large-scale a i r pollution i s one of t h e main negative f a c t o r s t h a t have emerged during t h e p a s t 3 0 y e a r s . The International Institute f o r Ap- plied Systems Analysis i s studying t h e important problem of acid rain. Smoke laden with sulphuric, n i t r i c , and sometimes, hydrofluoric a c i d s i s c a r r i e d by t h e winds o v e r g r e a t distances. A s a r e s u l t , acid r a i n o c c u r s in all t h e industrialized coun- tries. When studying t h i s problem, i t i s v e r y important not only to determine t h e harmful e f f e c t of a i r pollution on t h e surrounding landscape but to involve econom- i s t s in t h i s work b show t h a t control technologies c a n bring profit. This c a n b e t h e c a s e when t h e concentration of t h e v a p o r of sulphuric or hydrofluoric a c i d s i s sufficiently high. A t low concentrations i t will be unprofitable. I would like to give you t h e following example: in t h e Orenburg region in t h e Southern Urals l a r g e c o p p e r deposits w e r e discovered in t h e 1930s. In t h e s e deposits c o p p e r i s com- bined with sulphur in t h e form of chalcosine, chalcopyrite and bornite. A plant and t h e city of Mednogorsk w e r e built in t h e Urals, 1 2 0 km east of Orenburg. The plant produced high-quality c o p p e r ; sulphur g a s e s of high concentration were discharged into t h e a i r , which resulted in t h e following consequences: at f i r s t ,

tree t o p s withered a n d t h e n f o r e s t s underwent a complete d e g r a d a t i o n o v e r a con- s i d e r a b l e t e r r i t o r y . Our technologists a n d economists c a l c u l a t e d , however, t h a t i t would b e v e r y p r o f i t a b l e f o r t h e p l a n t to r e t a i n t h i s s u l p h u r o u s g a s a n d p r o d u c e p u r e s u l p h u r r a t h e r t h a n s u l p h u r i c a c i d . The p l a n t now p r o d u c e s c o p p e r a n d a b o u t 7,000 t o n s of p u r e s u l p h u r p e r y e a r . A s a r e s u l t t h e p l a n t i s more p r o f i t - a b l e . The Ministry of Non-Ferrous Metallurgy did n o t a c c e p t t h e p r o j e c t f o r a long time b e c a u s e s u l p h u r i s p r o d u c e d in t h e USSR by a n o t h e r ministry, t h e Ministry of Chemical Industry. S u l p h u r emissions c a n n o d o u b t b e r e d u c e d at a p r o f i t f o r t h o s e f a c t o r i e s a n d companies t h a t are melting sulphide ores.

R i v e r s a n d l a k e s h a v e b e e n polluted d u r i n g t h e r e c e n t d e c a d e s . I will l a t e r s p e a k a b o u t what h a s b e e n d o n e to d e a l with t h i s problem i n t h e USSR. I t i s e s p e - cially d i s t u r b i n g t h a t t h e World Ocean h a s also b e e n polluted. This i s to a g r e a t e x t e n t d u e to t h e i n c r e a s i n g o f f s h o r e e x t r a c t i o n of oil a n d g a s from t h e s h e l f . The e n t i r e North Sea in E u r o p e , t h e P e r s i a n Gulf, t h e Gulf of Mexico, t h e South China Sea-all t h e s e shallow-water seas are c o v e r e d by a t h i c k n e t of oil- a n d gas- e x t r a c t i n g platforms. S u c h platforms are hugging t h e n o r t h e r n a n d s o u t h e r n s h o r e s of Alaska, t h e s h o r e s of California. E c u a d o r , P e r u , a n d N o r t h e r n Chile, t h e western s h o r e s of Australia, a n d t h e s h o r e s of India n e a r Bombay. They a r e locat- e d i n t h e Bass Strait between Australia a n d Tasmania, i n t h e Bay of Siam a n d in t h e Gulf of Guinea i n Africa.

In 1985, 680 million t o n s of oil w e r e e x t r a c t e d off s h o r e . More was e x t r a c t e d i n 1986. I d o n o t know t h e e x a c t f i g u r e but i t should b e o v e r 700 million tons.

Moreover, many c o u n t r i e s t h a t h a v e n o d e p o s i t s on land e x t r a c t h u n d r e d s of thousand t o n s f r o m h y d r o c a r b o n d e p o s i t s u n d e r t h e sea floor. These a r e , e.g., Ni- g e r i a , Norway, Denmark, a n d t h e Netherlands. These oil fields are i n f a c t t h e main p o l l u t e r s of t h e World Ocean, s i n c e a c e r t a i n amount of oil i s l o s t d u e to d r i l l f a i l u r e s , a n d in t h e p r o c e s s of pumping oil i n t o t a n k e r s . Of c o u r s e shipping h a s in- c r e a s e d and t h i s a l s o p o l l u t e s t h e o c e a n . H e r e i s a n example. In 1947, T h o r Hey- e r t h a l sailed on t h e 'Xon-Tiki" from P e r u ' s s h o r e s to a small island in t h e Paumotu Archipelago. On h i s way h e s a w c l e a n w a t e r , plenty of fish a n d o t h e r animals.

Twenty-three y e a r s l a t e r in 1970, h e made a t r i p on t h e sailing b o a t "Rha" from Morocco to t h e s h o r e s of Venezuela. All t h e way across t h e Atlantic Ocean h e saw n o flying fish, b u t o b s e r v e d oil s l i c k s a n d e n c o u n t e r e d d r i f t i n g p l a s t i c b o t t l e s a n d wastes.

The u p p e r c r u s t of t h e E a r t h a n d underground water are also being polluted.

In many cases, u n d e r t h e influence of human a c t i v i t y , k a r s t p r o c e s s e s develop.

This h a s o c c u r r e d e v e n i n M o s c o w as a r e s u l t of w a t e r l e a k a g e o u t of sewage a n d water-supply systems.

A mass movement f o r environmental p r o t e c t i o n began i n t h e 1960s, a b o u t 2 5 y e a r s ago. In 1972, a s p e c i a l s e s s i o n of t h e United Nations focused o n t h i s p r o b - lem. I t w a s decided to f o r m a n i n t e r n a t i o n a l body o n environmental programs- UNEP-that now h a s i t s h e a d q u a r t e r s i n Nairobi. UNESCO also a d o p t e d a number of i n t e r n a t i o n a l environmental p r o j e o t s while t h e Soviet Union b e g a n to i n t r o d u c e en- vironmental p r o t e c t i o n m e a s u r e s at a b o u t t h e same time. A s o c i e t y f o r n a t u r e con- s e r v a t i o n w a s organized i n t h e Soviet Union b a c k in 1923, b u t i t w a s a nongovern- mental organization. In t h e 1960s a n d 1970s t h e USSR S u p r e m e Soviet a d o p t e d a number of laws o n s o i l p r o t e c t i o n , water p r o t e c t i o n , a i r - s p a c e p r o t e c t i o n a n d also r e s o l u t i o n s o n t h e p r o t e c t i o n of t h e Black a n d Baltic Seas. The Council of Minis- ters e s t a b l i s h e d a commission o n environmental p r o t e c t i o n to e n f o r c e t h e laws.

This commission d o e s n o r e s e a r c h b u t it e n s u r e s t h a t ministries a n d f a c t o r y m a n a g e r s a b i d e by t h e a d o p t e d laws. Moreover, t h e commission c a n impose l a r g e f i n e s a n d dismiss o f f e n d e r s f r o m t h e i r posts. The h e a d of t h e commission i s o n e of t h e f i r s t Deputy Chairmen of t h e Council of Ministers of t h e USSR, p r e s e n t l y V.S.

Murakhovsky.

An interdepartmental committee f o r environmental protection w a s established at t h e S t a t e Committee f o r Science and Technology at t h e s a m e time. In 1972, t h e Scientific Council on t h e problems of biosphere w a s organized at t h e Academy of Sciences of t h e USSR. Academician A.P. Vinogradov, i t s f i r s t chairman, w a s a well-known geochemist. After Academician Vinogradov's death in 1976, Academi- cian A.V. Sidorenko w a s appointed to t h e post, and now I a m in c h a r g e of t h e Coun- cil. I shall d e s c r i b e s o m e a s p e c t s of i t s work.

W e organize fact-finding conferences in various regions of t h e Soviet Union where abnormal ecological situations arise. I have p a r t i c i p a t e d in a number of such conferences: in Yakutsk on protecting t h e t u n d r a and defining conditions f o r mining minerals in t h e tundra; in Kishinev, Moldavia, and in Yalta on improving t h e health resort zone in Kislovodsk and on t h e n o r t h e r n c o a s t of t h e Blaak Sea. In 1984 1 organized a visiting session in Yerevan. A s a r e s u l t , a governmental noo- s p h e r e studies c e n t e r w a s organized in Armenia. During t h e l a s t t w o and a half y e a r s , t h i s c e n t e r h a s accomplished much: t h e proposed s i t e f o r construction of a nuclear power plant h a s been changed, and i t will be built in a remote and uninha- bited valley in t h e mountains; t h e amount of Sevan water used by a chain of small h y d r e p o w e r s t a t i o n s h a s been reduced; f a c t o r i e s t h a t polluted t h e a i r in t h e Ararat valley have been closed down. The last meeting of t h a t kind w a s organized in 1986 in Ashkhabad, c a p i t a l of Turkmenia. I t w a s devoted to human ecology and n a t u r a l conditions in t h e a r i d zone of Central Asia and Azerbaijan. The meeting considered what should b e done to improve t h e environment in t h i s a r i d region, where many oil and g a s fields have been discovered. The meeting a l s o examined health resorts in piedmontane and mountain regions of Central Asia, t h e stabiliza- tion of moving sands, c o n t r o l of desertification, and t h e rational use of t h e limited water in this d e s e r t .

In addition to t h e s e visiting sessions during t h e p a s t two y e a r s , o u r Scientific Council on problems of t h e biosphere p r e p a r e d t h e scientific basis f o r a number of governmental resolutions. We began with a study of a p r o j e c t to t r a n s f e r waters of t h e r i v e r s of Northern Europe and S i b e r i a to t h e South of t h e country. W e have comprehensively studied t h i s question from t h e ecological and economic points of view, and have managed to p r o v e t h a t t h e t r a n s f e r of t h e waters of t h e n o r t h e r n r i v e r s (the Northern Dvina and Onega) into t h e Volga basin i s of practically n o use due to climatic changes t h a t have begun. Over t h e p a s t eight y e a r s t h e a v e r a g e Volga run-off h a s been 26 k m 3 l a r g e r than t h a t o v e r t h e preceding one hundred y e a r s and i s increasing. Building new r e s e r v o i r s on t h e Upper Sukhona and Onega on f e r t i l e soils w a s t e s money f o r only 6 k m 3 of additional water i s t r a n s f e r r e d into t h e Caspian Sea. But t h e Caspian S e a does not need water. I t s level h a s begun to increase. One should start thinking of how to d e c r e a s e this level, e.g., by t r a n s f e r r i n l a r g e amounts of w a t e r to t h e Carabogaz Bay t h a t e a r l i e r e v a p o r a t e d a b o u t 6 km of

S

As f o r t h e Siberian r i v e r s , t h e problem h a s not been removed from t h e agen- da. The population of Central Asia i s rapidly growing due to a high b i r t h - r a t e and t h e migration of Soviets from S i b e r i a and t h e F a r E a s t to a region with b e t t e r climatic conditions. Central Asia will need water. The r e s o u r c e s of t h e Amu-Darya are practically exhausted. The completely exhausted Syr-Darya does not r e a c h t h e Aral Sea. But t h e p r o j e c t on which work began i s not satisfactory. I t would give Central Asia only 8 or 10 k m 3 of water. This i s too little because due to faulty irrigation, Central Asia now loses about 26 k m 3 of water. Measures on water econ- omy should b e t a k e n t h e r e b e f o r e w a t e r t r a n s f e r from S i b e r i a begins. I t i s prob- a b l e t h a t in t h e XXIst c e n t u r y w e shall r e c o n s i d e r t h i s p r o j e c t . In any c a s e , we re- p o r t e d o u r calculations and p r e s e n t e d them to t h e government and on August 1 4 ,

1986 i t w a s announced t h a t t h e t r a n s f e r to t h e South of p a r t of t h e run-off of t h e n o r t h e r n and Siberian r i v e r s had been cancelled.

The second problem being studied under t h e supervision of o u r Scientific Council i s t h a t of Baikal, t h e wonderful lake, about 2 km (1741 m) deep, in e a s t e r n S i b e r i a with amazingly c l e a r w a t e r . Baikal waters are clean due to t h e resident fauna: a tiny swimming crayfish "epischura baikalensis" inhabits t h e u p p e r l a y e r of t h e water. I t f i l t e r s water through i t s body leaving t h e suspended p a r t i c l e s in i t s tiny shell. Six generations of crayfish live and die during t h e summer period.

and six times t h e s e e p i s c h u r a shells with t h e i r loads of suspended p a r t i c l e s d r o p to t h e bottom. This explains t h e amazing purity of t h e Baikal waters. In 1955 i t w a s decided to build a p u l p a n d p a p e r mill on Baikal. I t w a s supposed to produue cellu- 1-e c o r d f o r t h e aviation industry. However, t h e industry stopped using cellulose c o r d and began to use a metallic one. The f a c t o r y began to produce o r d i n a r y pa- p e r . And though t h e r e were water-treatment facilities, t h e f a c t o r y polluted Baikal. W e suggested moving t h e production of cellulose down t h e Angara r i v e r t o t h e North where conditions a r e r i g h t f o r t h e production of cellulose. In April-May, 1987, o u r governmental bodies announced t h e i r decision to purify not only Baikal itself but all t h e r i v e r s flowing into i t , to enhance t h e sewage systems of t h e c i t i e s on t h e s e r i v e r s , to s t o p t h e production of cellulose on Baikal and to move t h e f a c t o r y to t h e new c i t y of Ust-Ilim, being built on t h e Angara.

A t h i r d problem t h a t o u r Scientific Council h a s considered i s how to k e e p Lake Ladoga clean. This i s t h e s o u r c e of t h e Neva River, which provides Leningrad with w a t e r . This problem w a s mostly considered by o u r colleagues from Leningrad, but w e discussed t h e i r proposals a t meetings of o u r Council and then p r e s e n t e d them to t h e government. A governmental resolution on t h e protection of Lake La- doga h a s r e c e n t l y been published. This means t h a t a n o t h e r of o u r regional ecolog- ical p r o j e c t s h a s been successful.

W e are now examining t h e p r o j e c t to build a n o t h e r water r e s e r v o i r on t h e Upper Volga n e a r Rzhev to provide Moscow with water. According t o t h i s p r o j e c t , 60 k m 2 are to b e flooded but we are against building r e s e r v o i r s in plains (they c a n be built in montain clefts). Fertile lands a r e too valuable t o b e lost to water reser- voirs. We have succeeded in demonstrating t h a t underground s o u r c e s around Mos- cow c a n provide more w a t e r t h a n could b e obtained from t h i s new r e s e r v o i r . The l a t t e r w a s supposed t o give 2 3 m3 p e r second. W e have shown t h a t t h e under- ground s o u r c e s around Moscow c a n give 35 m3/sec. That w a s t h e main argument against building a new water r e s e r v o i r . The Council of Ministers of t h e Russian Federation h a s a l r e a d y considered o u r proposals and a g r e e d with them. The r e s o - lution i s under consideration by t h e Council of Ministers of t h e USSR and will prob- ably b e adopted.

I have used t h e s e examples to show how environmental protection i s develop- ing in t h e USSR. Of c o u r s e , o u r Scientific Council i s not t h e only body working in this field. We have a powerful Soviet Committee f o r t h e International Program

"Man and t h e Biosphere", headed by Academician V.E. Sokolov. This committee has been v e r y successful in establishing n a t u r e r e s e r v e s and saving many endangered animals. During t h e war, t h e European buffalo w a s practically exterminated in t h e Soviet Union. Now buffalo live in Belovezhskaya Pushcha on t h e b o r d e r with Po- land, a reserve on t h e l e f t bank of t h e Oka River n e a r Moscow, and t h e Northern Caucasus; a h e r d of buffalo h a s a p p e a r e d in Lithuania. An attempt w a s a l s o made to introduae buffalo to Central Asia b u t t h e buffalo ate t h e young trees and had t o b e removed.

The saigak is o u r s t e p p e antilope. A t one time t h e saigak population fell to 1 2 thousand but now in Kalmykia and Kazakhstan, i t is at 600,000. The population has been completely r e s t o r e d !

R e s e n e s h e l p e d g r e a t l y in p r o t e c t i n g f u r animals a n d t h e s a b l e , p a r t i c u l a r l y in t h e Kondo-Sosvinsky reserve on t h e eastern s l o p e of t h e U r a l s a n d in t h e Bar- guzinsky resene o n Baikal. A t f i r s t , t h e s a b l e s were b r e d within t h e r e s e r v e b u t l a t e r t h e animals were allowed to migrate i n t o t h e f o r e s t s of a d j a c e n t t e r r i t o r i e s where s a b l e hunting h a s now resumed.

T h e r e h a s b e e n some p r o g r e s s i n n a t u r e c o n s e r v a t i o n a n d environmental pro- t e c t i o n i n t h e S o v i e t Union, j u s t as i n many o t h e r c o u n t r i e s as well. I am aware of t h e allocations of t h e government of t h e F e d e r a l Republic of Germany to c l e a n t h e Rhine, and I know how many billions of d o l l a r s t h e United States of America h a s s p e n t to c l e a n t h e G r e a t Lakes. E f f o r t s i n t h i s d i r e c t i o n will n o d o u b t continue a n d should i n c r e a s e , d u e to t h e growing population of t h e E a r t h .

I h a v e n o t mentioned some o t h e r i m p o r t a n t ecological problems, s u c h as d e s e r t i f i c a t i o n i n t r o p i c a l c o u n t r i e s . A g r e a t d e a l h a s b e e n done toward solving t h a t problem. I would like to dwell now o n t h e s c i e n c e of human ecology which g r a - dually evolved as t h e a b o v e ecological problems were b e e n studied. In t h e XIXth c e n t u r y , eaology included p l a n t s a n d animals b u t n o t human beings. Today human ecology or t h e s t u d y of human a d a p t a t i o n mechanisms to new, unusual a n d / o r e x - t r e m e s i t u a t i o n s assumes g r e a t significance. P e o p l e s u r v i v e in o u t e r s p a c e a n d at sea d e p t h s of u p to 2 0 0 m. In o l d e r times, in t h e r e g i o n s of t h e a l p i n e meadows in high mountains, only s h e p h e r d s could Live f o r half a y e a r . Nowadays we build p e r - manent s e t t l e m e n t s a n d mines f o r e x t r a c t i n g minerals at a n a l t i t u d e of 4,000 m.

Living conditions a t s u c h a l t i t u d e s should b e studied. A s p e c i a l i n s t i t u t e of human physiology a n d pathology at high elevations h a s been organized at t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e Kirghiz SSR i n Frunze. An i n s t i t u t e of t h e same kind i n Ashkhabad (Turkmenia) s t u d i e s human ecology i n d r y h o t d e s e r t climates. T h e r e are p e r - manent s e t t l e m e n t s in t h e A n t a r c t i c w h e r e living conditions (half a y e a r without sun a n d with a t e m p e r a t u r e of minus 60-70' Celsius) also must b e studied.

And finally I should mention t h e problem of l a r g e c i t i e s . I think t h a t t h e eco- logical s i t u a t i o n h e r e i s n o l e s s e x t r e m e t h a n in d e s e r t s or high mountains. The stress of living i n l a r g e c i t i e s , e x p o s u r e to X-rays instruments, noise, etc. i s defin- itely e x t r e m e . I t i s not by c h a n c e t h a t w e h a v e overcome infectious d i s e a s e s while t h e d e t e r i o r a t i o n of t h e human organism's functions intimately a s s o c i a t e d with c i t y l i f e is growing dramatically. The number of d e a t h s f r o m c a n c e r in a c i t y i s p r o p o r - tional to i t s population. A t t h e same time, in r e g i o n s where t h e r e are n o l a r g e ci- t i e s , as in Yemen, o u r d o c t o r s could n o t find a single case of c a n c e r in f i v e y e a r s . Not only c a n c e r , b u t c h r o n i c lung diseases, u p p e r r e s p i r a t o r y tract ailments, b r o n c h i t i s , a l l e r g i c d i s e a s e s , malfunctions of t h e c a r d i o - v a s c u l a r system are typi- c a l d i s e a s e s of l a r g e c i t i e s , l e t alone mental d i s o r d e r s . That i s why t h e s t u d y of human ecology u n d e r e x t r e m e conditions, including t h o s e of l a r g e c i t i e s , are a l s o likely to b e given high p r i o r i t y .

I would like to s a y a few words a b o u t t h e n e a r f u t u r e . In t h e S o v i e t Union w e are p r e p a r i n g to m e r g e t h e many organizations f o r n a t u r e c o n s e r v a t i o n a n d to es- tablish a State Committee f o r n a t u r e c o n s e r v a t i o n to b e h e a d e d by o n e of t h e Depu- t y Chairmen of t h e Council of Ministers of t h e USSR. This is n e c e s s a r y to e n s u r e t h a t t h e r e s o l u t i o n s of t h i s Committee are o b l i g a t o r y f o r a l l f i r m s a n d a l l minis- tries. This y e a r a l a r g e p r o g r a m on b i o s p h e r i c a n d ecological investigations h a s begun to b e drawn u p at t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR. Mindful of t h e g r e a t importance of b i o s p h e r i c a n d ecological investigations f o r t h e f u t u r e of t h e whole mankind, t h e P r e s i d e n t of t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR, Academician G.I.

Marchuk, h a s a g r e e d to h e a d t h i s p r o g r a m . The p r o g r a m will include t h e following s e c t i o n s (they h a v e n o t y e t b e e n finalized): a s e c t i o n on t h e biological a s p e c t s of t h e p r o g r a m , h e a d e d by Academician V.E. Sokolov; a s e c t i o n o n t h e geophysical as- p e c t s (mostly c o n c e r n i n g t h e e x p e c t e d global c h a n g e s of t h e a t m o s p h e r e a n d meas-

u r e s to k e e p i t s p u r i t y ) , h e a d e d by Yu.A. I s r a e l , Chairman of t h e State Committee f o r Hydrometeorology; a s e c t i o n o n t h e ecology of i n d u s t r i a l f a c t o r i e s , led by Academician B.N. Laskorin, who was instrumental in designing a closed water sup- ply f o r i n d u s t r i a l f a c t o r i e s in t h e USSR; a s e c t i o n o n ecology of a g r i c u l t u r e , head- e d by Academician Kashtanov, a Vice-President of t h e Academy of Agricultural Sci- e n c e s ; a s e c t i o n o n c o n s e r v a t i o n a n d r e c o v e r y of s o i l f e r t i l i t y , h e a d e d by V.A.

Kovda, Corresponding Member of t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR; a s e c t i o n on c o n s e r v a t i o n a n d r e c o v e r y of f o r e s t s , n o t only as a s o u r c e of t i m b e r b u t as a n e c e s s a r y element of n a t u r e as well, h e a d e d by Academician A.S. Issayev, from K r a s n o y a r s k ; a s e c t i o n o n human ecology, to b e headed by myself a n d some of my a s s i s t a n t s ; a s e c t i o n o n r e g i o n a l ecological problems of Lake Baikal, to b e h e a d e d by a Corresponding Member of t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR, V.M. Kot- lyakov, who i s d i r e c t o r of t h e I n s t i t u t e of Geography of t h e Academy of S c i e n c e s of t h e USSR. Finally t h e r e i s t h e s e c t i o n o n e n e r g y a n d mass e x c h a n g e in t h e bio- s p h e r e , headed by Academician K.Ya. Kondratyev.

I would like to a d d t h a t t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) h a s decided t h a t beginning in t h e n e x t d e c a d e , IGBP ( t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l G e o s p h e r e - Biosphere P r o g r a m ) will b e a main s u b j e c t of investigation. This p r o g r a m may cov- e r a p e r i o d of 500 million y e a r s , b u t a t t e n t i o n will likely b e paid t o t h e c h a n g e s t h a t h a v e o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e l a s t 2 Ma, i.e., c o v e r i n g p e r i o d s when g l a c i e r s re- p e a t e d l y advanced a n d r e t r e a t e d in a n d o u t of n o r t h e r n E u r o p e . Sometimes E u r o p e resembled A n t a r c t i c a a n d Greenland t o d a y b u t at o t h e r times walnut f o r e s t s were growing in Yakutsk i n t h e n o r t h of S i b e r i a ( t h e i r f r u i t w a s found a n d d e s c r i b e d by Academician V.N. S u k a c h e v i n t h e sediments of t h e l a s t i n t e r g l a c i a t i o n n e a r Yakutsk). Although t h e main elements of IGBP are s t i l l being c o n s i d e r e d by t h e S p e c i a l Committee a p p o i n t e d by ICSU, i t i s likely t h a t c h a n g e s in t h e E a r t h ' s geog- r a p h y , i n i t s climate, a n d in sea level o v e r t h e p a s t 2 Ma will b e o n e of t h e main p a r t s of t h e p r o g r a m . I think t h a t IIASA, where i n t e r e s t i n g a n d i m p o r t a n t investi- g a t i o n s of t h e b i o s p h e r e are c a r r i e d o u t , should become involved i n t o t h i s i n t e r n a - tional p r o g r a m , i t should widen i t s investigations of t h e b i o s p h e r i c problems. F o r example, i t might b e d e s i r a b l e to e x p a n d t h e IIASA E u r o p e a n Case Study. in which environmental c h a n g e s i n E u r o p e are being p i e c e d t o g e t h e r f o r t h e p a s t 300 y e a r s , to include t h e whole g l o b e a n d to e x t e n d t h e time s c a l e from 300 y e a r s t o 300,000 y e a r s .

I believe t h a t t h i s i s a v e r y i m p o r t a n t t a s k . That i s why I will c o n t r i b u t e my own e f f o r t s t o p r o m o t e i t , b u t t h e leading r o l e must b e played by t h e r e s e a r c h s c h o l a r s of IIASA. You c a n accomplish much a n d I wish you e v e r y s u c c e s s . Resolu- tion of t h e s e c r u c i a l problems i s of vital importance f o r t h e f u t u r e of mankind.