IIVG Papers
Veroeffentlichungsreihe des Internationalen Instituts fuer Vergleichende Gesellschaftsforschungs/Globale Entwicklungen
Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin
IIVG/dp 85-104
The Role of Need, Political Alignment and Trade in the Distribution of Foreign Aid
by
Gary A . Flemming March, 1985
Publication Series of the International Institute for Comparative Social Research/Global Developments
Science Center Berlin
Steinplatz 2
D-1000 Berlin 12
Die in dieser Arbeit vertretenen Auffassungen s ind die des Verfassers u n d nicht notwendigerweise die des Internationalen Instituts fuer Vergleichende Gesellschaftsforschung/Globale Entwicklungen.
The views expressed i n this paper are those of the author and not neoessarily those of the International Institute for Comparative Social Researdh/Global Developments.
ABSTRACT
This paper, which was produced in conjunction with the GLOBUS project at the Science Center Berlin, attempts to ascertain to what degree need, political alignment and trade influence the distribution of bi-lateral foreign aid. The behavior of eight donor nations with eighty-eight recipient nations for the period 1960-1977 is examined. Attention is focused on three major points; the relative impact of the above mentioned variables on the distribution of aid, the existence of trends in the importance of these variables and thus indications of changes over time, as well as, any observable differences in the behavior of large and small donors. The individual behavior of each of the donors is described with reference to these main concerns and some general observations about the distribution of bi-lateral aid for this sample are offered by way of a conclusion.
ZUSAMMENFASSUNG
In diesem Artikel, der im Zusammenhang mit dem GLOBUS-Projekt entstand, soll nachgewiesen werden, inwieweit Bedarf, Buendniszugehoerigkeit und Handel die Verteilung bilateraler Entwicklungshilfe beeinflussen. Dazu wird das Verhalten von acht Gebernationen gegenueber achtundachtzig Empfaengernationen in der Zeit von 1960-1977 untersucht.
Dabei werden vor allem drei Hauptaspekte beruecksichtigt:
der Einfluss der oben genannten Variablen auf die Verteilung von Entwicklungshilfe, der Nachweis der verschiedenen Ge
wichtigkeiten von Trends dieser Variablen und beobachtbare Veraenderungen des Verhaltens ueber den genannten Zeitraum.
Es werden die Unterschiede im Verhalten der grossen und kleinen Gebernationen verdeutlicht. Das individuelle Ver
halten jeder Gebernation wird hinsichtlich dieser wesent
lichen Punkte beschrieben. Einige allgemeine Beobachtungen ueber die Verteilung bilateraler Entwicklungshilfe der untersuchten Nationen werden in Rahmen der Schlussfol
gerungen vorgelegt.
I N T R O D U C T I O N
T h i s p a p e r c o n c e r n s i t s e l f w i t h t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e i g n a i d . T o d a t e t h e r e e x i s t t w o d o m i n a n t v i e w s t h a t s e e k t o d e s c r i b e t h e b a s i s u p o n w h i c h a i d i s d i s t r i b u t e d . O n e v i e w h o l d s t h a t a i d i s d i s t r i b u t e d o n t h e b a s i s o f n e e d , w h i l e t h e o t h e r m a i n t a i n s t h a t d o n o r s g i v e a i d t o p r o m o t e t h e i r o w n e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l i n t e r e s t s . T h e e v i d e n c e m a r s h a l l e d b y b o t h s i d e s t o s u p p o r t t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e p o s i t i o n s i s o f t e n c o n t r a d i c t o r y a n d , t h e r e f o r e , f a i l s t o o f f e r a t o t a l l y c o n v i n c i n g e x p l a n a t i o n . C o n s e q u e n t l y , w e w i l l t a k e u p t h i s q u e s t i o n o f d i s t r i b u t i o n a g a i n . W e w i l l a t t e m p t t o e s t a b l i s h t h e b a s i c o u t l i n e s o f f o r e i g n a i d i n t e r m s o f t h e c r i t e r i a u s e d t o d i s t r i b u t e it. W e w i l l
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d e s c r i b e a n d s e e k t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e b i l a t e r a l t r e n d s i n t h e a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d . I n o t h e r w o r d s , w e w i l l a d d r e s s t h e f o l l o w i n g q u e s t i o n : O n w h a t b a s i s i s a i d a l l o c a t e d a m o n g p o t e n t i a l r e c i p i e n t s ? I n o u r e f f o r t s t o d o s o w e w i l l s u m m a r i z e t h e c u r r e n t d e b a t e c o n c e r n i n g t h e c r i t e r i a u s e d b y t h e d o n o r s t o d i s t r i b u t e a i d . W e w i l l a l s o r e v i e w t h e r e l e v a n t f i n d i n g s p r o d u c e d b y e m p i r i o a l s t u d i e s w h i c h h a v e i n v e s t i g a t e d t h i s s u b j e c t . W e w i l l t h e n f o r m u l a t e o u r o w n m o d e l o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e i g n a i d , t e s t it, a n d p r e s e n t t h e r e s u l t s .
1
A c o n v e n t i o n a l v i e w h o l d s t h a t t h e p u r p o s e o f f o r e i g n a i d h a s b e e n a n d c o n t i n u e s t o b e t h e p r o m o t i o n o f e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t a n d i t s v a r i o u s s o c i e t a l b e n e f i t s i n t h e m o r e d e p r e s s e d a r e a s o f t h e w o r l d . M a n y i n b o t h t h e d o n o r a n d r e c i p i e n t c o u n t r i e s h a v e i n t e r p r e t e d t h i s t o m e a n a i d s h o u l d
b e g i v e n t o t h o s e w h o n e e d i t m o s t . H o w e v e r , t h e m o t i v a t i o n s b e h i n d t h e g i v i n g o f f o r e i g n a i d h a v e b e e n s u b j e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e d s c r u t i n y , T h o r p ( 1 9 7 1 ) , H a r t ( 1 9 7 3 ) , W h i t e ( 1 9 7 4 ) , T e n d i e r ( 1 9 7 5 ) , W o o d a n d M o r t o n ( 1 9 7 7 ) , a n d M c N e i l C 1 9 8 1 ) . T h e h u m a n i t a r i a n o r w e l f a r e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f t h e m o t i v a t i o n b e h i n d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d h a s c o m e u n d e r a t t a c k . I t i s e v i d e n t t h a t t h e a m o u n t s o f a i d r e c e i v e d b y t h e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s d o n o t m e e t t h e i r t h e i r w e l f a r e n e e d s , ( s e e P e a r s o n R e p o r t , B r a n d t R e p o r t , D e v e l o p m e n t A s s i s t a n c e C o m m i t t e e R e p o r t s ) . M o r e o v e r , t h e m a j o r d o n o r s r e t a i n t i g h t c o n t r o l o f t h e i r a i d b y m a i n t a i n i n g b i l a t e r a l p r o g r a m s a n d b y n e g l e c t i n g e s t a b l i s h e d m u l t i l a t e r a l c h a n n e l s . S o m e s c h o l a r s , H a y t e r ( 1 9 7 1 ) , H a r t ( 1 9 7 3 ) , W e i s m a n n ( 1 9 7 4 ) , a n d M c N e i l ( 1 9 8 1 ) , a r g u e t h a t a i d i s p r o v i d e d b y t h e d o n o r s s o t h a t t h e y c a n e x e r c i s e a d e g r e e o f c o n t r o l o r l e v e r a g e o v e r t h e r e c i p i e n t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e w e l f a r e n e e d s o f t h e r e c i p i e n t p l a y a s e c o n d a r y r o l e .
T h i s u t i l i t a r i a n v i e w o f a i d , u t i l i t a r i a n i n t e r m s o f t h e i n t e r e s t s o f a i d s u p p l i e r s a s o p p o s e d t o t h e r e c i p i e n t , h a s c o m e t o b e a d o m i n a n t c o u n t e r i m a g e t o t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l v i e w . T o s o m e e x t e n t , t h i s d i s c u s s i o n h a s p a s s e d i n t o t h e g e n e r a l c o n s c i o u s n e s s . T h e c r i t i q u e i s t h a t t h e a i d m a n y t i m e s d o e s n o t g o t o t h o s e c o u n t r i e s w h i c h h a v e t h e g r e a t e s t n e e d o r t o t h o s e w h o a r e j u d g e d t h e m o s t a b l e t o m a k e t h e m o s t e f f e c t i v e u s e o f a n y f u n d s t h a t a r e g i v e n . R a t h e r it i s g i v e n t o t h o s e c o u n t r i e s w h o s h a r e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c i n t e r e s t s w i t h t h e d o n o r c o u n t r i e s , M o r g e n t h a u ( 1 9 6 2 ) , M a s o n ( 1 9 6 4 ) , L i t t l e C 1 9 6 5 ) , F e i s ( 1 9 6 6 ) ,
R u b i n ( 1 9 6 6 ) , W e s t w o o d ( 1 9 6 6 ) , M o n t g o m e r y C 1 9 6 7 ) , K a p l a n C 1 9 6 7 ) , P i n c u s ( 1 9 6 7 ) , B l a c k ( 1 9 6 8 ) , W i t t k o p f ( 1 9 7 2 ) a n d H o a d l e y ( 1 9 8 0 ) . I f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e i g n a i d i s n o t d e t e r m i n e d o n t h e b a s i s o f n e e d a l o n e , t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e p r o b l e m m u s t t u r n a w a y f r o m a m e r e c o n t e m p l a t i o n o f n e e d t o o n e w h i c h e x p l o r e s a r a n g e o f t h e e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l i n t e r a c t i o n s o f t h e t w o p a r t i e s .
T h i s a p p r o a c h t o w a r d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e i g n a i d r a i s e s a h o s t o f i n t e r e s t i n g q u e s t i o n s . A r e t h e r e a n y d i s c e r n a b l e p a t t e r n s i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e i g n a i d ? T h a t is, d o n a t i o n s g i v e a i d t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s o n t h e b a s i s o f p a r t i c u l a r n a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . D o t h e s e p a t t e r n s h o l d f o r a l l d o n o r s o r a r e t h e r e d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e w a y i n d i v i d u a l n a t i o n s g i v e a i d ? D o t h e s e p a t t e r n s r e m a i n c o n s i s t e n t t h r o u g h t i m e o r a r e t h e y s u b j e c t t o c h a n g e ? I f t h e y d o c h a n g e , i s t h i s t h e r e s u l t o f i n t e r n a l p r e s s u r e s o r d e v e l o p m e n t s o n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s c e n e ?
D I S T R I B U T I O N O F B I L A T E R A L A I D
T h e n e x t s t e p i n o u r a t t e m p t t o i d e n t i f y t h o s e q u a l i t i e s i n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w h i c h e l i c i t a i d i s t o e x a m i n e e a r l i e r w o r k i n t h i s f i e l d o f s t u d y . F o r c o n v i e n e n c e w e h a v e g r o u p e d t h o s e n a t i o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w h i c h o t h e r s c h o l a r s h a v e i n v e s t i g a t e d i n c o n n e c t i o n w i t h t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d i n t o f i v e g e n e r a l c a t e g o r i e s . T h e s e c a t e g o r i e s a r e l o o s e l y b a s e d o n t h e f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s : a r e c i p i e n t ' s e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y , i t s p o t e n t i a l p o w e r , a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h t h e
c o m m u n i s t b l o c , e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l t i e s w i t h t h e d o n o r a n d t h e r e l a t i v e n e e d o f t h e r e c i p i e n t . B y r e v i e w i n g t h e f i n d i n g s o f p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s i n t h i s m a n n e r w e h o p e t o i s o l a t e t h o s e v a r i a b l e s t h a t a r e t h e m o s t f r u i t f u l f o r f u r t h e r a n a l y s i s .
T h e i n f l u e n c e o f p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y a n d e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e o n a i d d i s t r i b u t i o n a p p e a r s t o b e n e g l i g i b l e . H e n d e r s o n ( 1 9 7 1 ) , w h i l e s t u d y i n g t h e a i d p r o c e s s o f a l l O E C D d o n o r s , f o u n d t h e s e i n d i c a t o r s t o b e o f n o s i g n i f i c a n c e . M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e ( 1 9 7 2 , 1 9 7 7 , 1 9 7 8 a a n d 1 9 7 8 b ) i n t h e i r s t u d i e s o f t h e a i d b e h a v i o r o f F r a n c e , t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m a n d t h e F e d e r a l R e p u b l i c o f G e r m a n y c a m e t o t h e s a m e g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n . N e i t h e r t h e e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e n o r t h e p o l i t i c a l s t a b i l i t y o f a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y h a d a n y e f f e c t o n t h e a i d p o l i c y o f t h e a b o v e d o n o r s . S c h o o f ( 1 9 8 2 ) r e p o r t e d s i m i l a r f i n d i n g s f o r G e r m a n y . O n l y K a p l a n ( 1 9 7 6 ) e s t a b l i s h e d a s m a l l l i n k b e t w e e n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f U . S . a i d a n d t h e p r e s e n c e o f d e m o c r a c y i n e i g h t e e n L a t i n A m e r i c a n c o u n t r i e s .
T h e c a t e g o r y , p o t e n t i a l p o w e r , f a r e d s o m e w h a t b e t t e r i n t h e p r e v i o u s a n a l y s e s . A g a i n t h e s t u d i e s o f M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e ( 1 9 7 7 , 1 9 7 8 a , 1 9 7 8 b a n d 1 9 7 9 ) f o u n d n o c o n n e c t i o n b e t w e e n r e c e i p t o f a i d a n d t h e p o t e n t i a l p o w e r o f a d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r y . O n l y i n t h e c a s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w a s p o t e n t i a l p o w e r a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e r e c e i p t o f f o r e i g n a i d . K a p l a n ( 1 9 7 6 ) a l s o r e p o r t s t h a t t h e U S A t e n d s t o f a v o r t h o s e L a t i n A m e r i c a n c o u n t r i e s w h o s p e n d a g r e a t d e a l o n d e f e n s e . S c h o o f ( 1 9 8 2 ) c o n t e n d s t h a t t h e a b o v e o b s e r v a t i o n
h o l d s t r u e f o r G e r m a n y a s w e l l . G e r m a n a i d f l o w s t o t h o s e L a t i n A m e r i c a n c o u n t r i e s t h a t h a v e a h i g h m i l i t a r y c a p a b i l i t y .
T h e c a t e g o r y , a s s o c i a t i o n s w i t h t h e c o m m u n i s t b l o c , p r e s e n t s a m i x e d p i c t u r e . M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e , i n t h r e e o f t h e i r s t u d i e s , f i n d n o r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d a n d e x t e n s i v e c o n t a c t s w i t h t h e S o v i e t U n i o n a n d i t s a l l i e s . T h e y r e p o r t t h a t o n l y t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s s e e m e d t o v i e w e x t e r n a l t i e s t o t h e U S S R a s a t h r e a t a n d w i t h h o l d s a i d a c c o r d i n g l y . P e t e r s e n ( 1 9 7 6 ) c o n f i r m s s u c h b e h a v i o r o n t h e p a r t o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s . I n a n e a r l i e r s t u d y W i t t k o p f ( 1 9 7 1 ) r e p o r t s t h a t t h e U S g i v e s l a r g e s u m s o f a i d t o t h o s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h a t l i e g e o g r a p h i c a l l y c l o s e t o t h e c o m m u n i s t b l o c .
S c h o o f ( 1 9 8 2 ) a l s o c o n t r a d i c t s t h e f i n d i n g s o f M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e . H e m a i n t a i n s t h a t t h e G e r m a n s g i v e m o r e a i d t o d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w i t h s t r o n g d i p l o m a t i c t i e s t o t h e S o v i e t B l o c t h a n t o T h i r d W o r l d n a t i o n s w h o d o n o t h a v e s u c h p o l i t i c a l c o n t a c t s w i t h t h e U S S R a n d i t s a l l i e s . I t i s i n t e r e s t i n g t o n o t e t h a t t w o s t u d i e s , W i t t k o p f ( 1 9 7 3 ) a n d R a i ( 1 9 8 0 ) , w h i c h d e a l w i t h f o r e i g n a i d a n d r e c i p i e n t c o u n t r i e s v o t i n g b e h a v i o r i n t h e U n i t e d N a t i o n s , e s t a b l i s h e d n o s i g n i f i c a n t c o n n e c t i o n b e t w e e n t h e t w o v a r i a b l e s .
P e r h a p s i t w a s t o b e e x p e c t e d t h a t t h o s e i n d i c a t o r s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s h a r e d i n t e r e s t s w i t h t h e d o n o r h a v e t h e g r e a t e s t i n f l u e n c e o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d . M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e r e p o r t t h a t f o r m e r c o l o n i a l t i e s a n d t r a d e
r e l a t i o n s h i p s h a v e t h e m o s t s i g n i f i c a n t i m p a c t o n F r e n c h aid.
p o l i c y . T h i s i s a l s o t h e c a s e f o r t h e B r i t i s h w i t h l e s s e m p h a s i s placed, o n t r a d e . H e a l e y a n d C o v e r d a l e ( 1 9 7 8 ) a n d M o s e l y ( 1 9 8 1 ) s u p p o r t t h e a b o v e f i n d i n g s i n r e s p e c t t o t h e B r i t i s h . F o r t h e G e r m a n s t r a d e a p p e a r s t o b e t h e m a i n e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e ,M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e ( 1 9 7 7 ) . T h i s o b s e r v a t i o n i s c o n f i r m e d b o t h b y S c h u l t z ( 1 9 8 2 ) a n d S c h o o f ( 1 9 8 2 ) . J a p a n d e m o n s t r a t e s t h i s s a m e t e n d e n c y t o d i s t r i b u t e a i d t o t h o s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w i t h w h i c h i t t r a d e s e x t e n s i v e l y , o n l y t o a m u c h g r e a t e r e x t e n t , K i y o s h i ( 1 9 6 6 ) a n d S i n h a ( 1 9 7 4 ) . T h e U n i t e d S t a t e s w o u l d a p p e a r t o a o t i n a d i f f e r e n t m a n n e r . I t s e e m s t o g i v e a i d t o t h o s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h a t e n h a n c e i t s s e c u r i t y i n t e r e s t s , ( M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e , 1 9 7 7 ) . H o w e v e r , P e t e r s e n ( 1 9 7 6 ) d o e s n o t a t t r i b u t e a s g r e a t a r o l e t o s t r a t e g i c d e f e n s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a s d o e s M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e . H e c o n t e n d s t h a t U S a i d p o l i c y h a s a s i g n i f i c a n t h u m a n i t a r i a n c o m p o n e n t .
T o t h i s p o i n t a l l t h e v a r i a b l e s i n o u r r e v i e w h a v e b e e n p o l i t i c a l a n d e c o n o m i c d e t e r m i n a n t s o f a i d . A l l o f t h e s c h o l a r s w e h a v e c i t e d a b o v e h a v e f o u n d n e e d t o b e a f a c t o r i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d f o r a l l o f t h e d o n o r s . H o w e v e r , f o r c e r t a i n d o n o r s i t w a s f o u n d t o h a v e a g r e a t e r i n f l u e n c e . M c K i n l e y a n d L i t t l e ( 1 9 7 2 ) a r e o f t h e o p i n i o n t h a t B r i t i s h a i d h a s a s t r o n g h u m a n i t a r i a n c o m p o n e n t , t h a t t h e r e c i p i e n t ' s n e e d i s t a k e n i n t o a c c o u n t w h e n B r i t i s h a i d i s d i s t r i b u t e d . T h e y a l s o c o n c l u d e t h a t G e r m a n y a l l o c a t e s a i d o n s o m e w h a t t h e s a m e b a s i s , ( M c K i n l y a n d L i t t l e , 1 9 7 8 a ) .
T h i s v i e w o f G e r m a n p o l i c y i s s u p p o r t e d b y S c h o o f ( 1 9 8 2 ) . S c h o o f m a i n t a i n s t h a t i n t h e l a t e s e v e n t i e s G e r m a n y p r o c e d e d t o g i v e a i d t o t h o s e d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s t h a t d e m o n s t r a t e d t h e g r e a t e s t n e e d . H o a d l e y ( 1 9 8 0 ) r e p o r t s t h a t S w e d e n , C a n a d a a n d t h e N e t h e r l a n d s d i s t r i b u t e a i d p r i m a r i l y o n t h e b a s i s o f n e e d .
A M O D E L O F A I D D I S T R I B U T I O N
T h e r e v i e w o f p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s g i v e s a m i x e d p i c t u r e o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d . I t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e r e a r e d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e w a y n a t i o n s g i v e a i d . H o w e v e r , t h e b a s i s o f t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s i s n o t c l e a r . C o n t r a d i c t o r y f i n d i n g s a r e r e p o r t e d a s t o t h e e f f e c t s o f v a r i a b l e s o n t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h e d o n o r s b o t h i n d i v i d u a l l y a n d a s a g r o u p . I f a n y t h i n g , g i v e n t h a t t h e t i m e p e r i o d s c o v e r e d i n t h e s e d i f f e r e n t s t u d i e s d i f f e r , i t m a y b e t h e c a s e t h a t t h e r e l a t i v e i n f l u e n c e o f t h e v a r i a b l e s o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d c h a n g e o v e r t i m e .
I t i s o u r v i e w t h a t m a n y a n a l y s e s h a v e b e e n t o o n a r r o w i n t h e i r i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s o f t h e m o t i v a t i o n s b e h i n d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d . A i d i s s e e n a s e i t h e r b e i n g g i v e n f o r h u m a n i t a r i a n r e a s o n s o r o n t h e b a s i s o f e c o n o m i c o r p o l i t i c a l c o n c e r n s . I t i s o u r c o n t e n t i o n t h a t a d o n o r m a y e m p l o y d i f f e r i n g , o f t e n c o n t r a d i c t o r y , c r i t e r i a i n d i s t r i b u t i n g a i d . W e s u g g e s t t h a t a i d i s g e n e r a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d i n t h e p r e s e n c e o f n e e d b u t t h a t t h i s i s c o n d i t i o n a l t o t h e i n t e r e s t t h a t t h e d o n o r h a s i n h e l p i n g t h e r e c i p i e n t . A d o n o r m a y s u b s c r i b e t o t h e i d e a t h a t
f o r e i g n a i d s h o u l d b e a m e a n s t o h e l p t h e T h i r d W o r l d d e v e l o p . A t t h e s a m e t i m e t h e d o n o r w o u l d t a k e i n t o a c c o u n t i t s o w n i n t e r e s t s , s u c h a s t h e e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h a t e x i s t b e t w e e n t h e d o n o r a n d t h e r e c i p i e n t . T h e r e f o r e , w e s e e t h e f o r e i g n a i d d i s t r i b u t i o n p r o c e s s a s a f u n c t i o n o f a r e c i p i e n t c o u n t r y ' s n e e d , i t s t r a d e d e p e n d e n c y o n a n d p o l i t i c a l a l i g n m e n t t o w a r d a p a r t i c u l a r d o n o r . T h i s s e t o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s i s s p e c i f i e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g e q u a t i o n :
B I B 2 B 3
f a = a * n e e d * t d e p * p o l a l n
t - 1 t - 1 t - 1
I n t h i s s t u d y f o r e i g n a i d i s d e f i n e d a s T o t a l O f f i c i a l D e v e l o p m e n t A s s i s t a n c e G r o s s a s r e p o r t e d b y t h e D e v e l o p m e n t
2
A s s i s t a n c e C o m m i t t e e o f t h e O E C D , ( D A C ) . W e h a v e c h o s e n t h i s v a r i a b l e f o r s e v e r a l r e a s o n s . I t c o m e s c l o s e s t t o t h a t a s p e c t o f f o r e i g n a i d t h a t w e a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n s t u d y i n g , p u r e a i d i n t h e f o r m o f g r a n t s ; i.e . g i f t s f o r w h i c h n o o r m i n i m a l r e p a y m e n t i s r e q u i r e d . M o r e o v e r , i t d o e s n o t i n c l u d e a n y f o r m o f m i l i t a r y a i d . T h e f l o w s o f r e s o u r c e s r e p o r t e d b y t h e D A C a r e t h o s e m o n i e s i n t e n d e d t o a d v a n c e t h e e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t a n d w e l f a r e o f t h e r e c i p i e n t c o u n t r i e s . T h i s i s t h e a s p e c t o f f o r e i g n a i d t h a t w e a r e i n t e r e s t e d i n e x p l o r i n g . I n a d d i t i o n t h e d a t a i n t h i s v a r i a b l e a r e t h e f i g u r e s w h i c h d e c i s i o n m a k e r s i n t h e d o n o r c o u n t r i e s u s e w h e n t h e y a l l o c a t e a i d t o t h e r e c i p i e n t c o u n t r i e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e d a t a a s r e p o r t e d b y t h e D A C d o n o t i n c l u d e t h e f l o w o f r e s o u r c e s f r o m c h a r i t a b l e o r g a n i s a t i o n s a n d / o r
businesses to the developing countries. Only foreign aid transfered by official government agencies is dealt with.
Need represents a welfare consideration. It is difficult to find any direct and comparable measure of welfare that would allow us to assess a large number of countries over an extended period of time. Our solution to this problem has been somewhat traditional, relying on population and income terms, though we believe it to be a significant improvement on earlier indicators of this concept. The need attributed to any country must be seen in light of the relative performance of that country on a welfare measure that takes into account the intensity of its shortcomings in an area such as income. In addition, the scale of the problem must be taken into account. In combination, these two measures should provide us with a reasonable portrayal of the magnitude of a potential aid recipient's need. We suggest that the average per capita income across the set of possible aid recipients relative to the avarage per capita income of an individual potential recipient reflects the intensity of the latter's need. This perfomance measure is weighted by the size of .the potential recipient's population, in effect, a scaling operator. With this two termed measure a significant element of the magnitude of the potential recipient's relative need is revealed. In operational terms, the need variable is defined in the following manner: 3
need = pop^ *
aveycap
y c a p ±
where:
pop = total population of the recipient
aveycap = per capita income of total recipient sample ycap = per capita income of the recipient
The economic interest of an aid donor in a potential aid recipient can he seen on a variety of dimensions. For example, investment opportunities in a recipient may make that nation attractive in economic terms to the donor. This could induce the donor nation to allocate aid to the potential recipient as a means of securing preference for its investors. Significant volumes of trade may represent an important tie of interdependence. For the donor nation as a whole, and for significant elements within that nation, this interdependence could he profitable. We have chosen to use a trade relationship measure for a number of reasons.
On the practical side, trade data are the most completely covered form of bilateral economic relation and thus allow us to maximize the sample of states included within our analysis. From a theoretical perspective, it is clear that trade dependency represents a significant consideration in any utilitarian calculation that might be undertaken by an aid donor. In addition, it could as well mirror pressures from elements internal to the donor society given that aid is frequently tied to the purchase of goods from the donor.
This pressure could be the manifestation of "rent-seeking"
on the part of groups within the donor country attempting to
orient official policy, and thus allocations, in ways that
help cement sub-nationally profitable undertakings. We
define trade dependency as the total amount of exports sent by the donor to the recipient as reported by the donor plus the total amount of imports received by the donor from the recipient, again, as reported by the donor: 4 '
tdep = (expi + imp p where:
exp i = total exports sent by donor to recipient
imp = total imports received by donor from recipient
The political variable must reflect the political importance of the recipient to the donor. In so doing, it must be more than a simple representation of the amount of political cooperation that exists between the donor and the recipient.
It must also take into account the security concerns of the donor. These concerns are not formulated in a vacuum. They are a response to the actions of the donors' adversary.
Therefore, the political variable must reproduce the "Cold
War" alignments that are current among the donor, the
recipient and the Soviet Union. Our solution to this
problem was to construct a measure of political alignment
using the political cooperation data from Edward Azar's
Conflict and Peace Data Bank (COPDAB). This data set was
chosen because it has several advantages over other
indicators of political interaction. The political
cooperation data cover a range of political events from
neutrality to unification. This enables us to capture more
fully the nature of a relationship between the donor and
the recipient. Moreover, the political cooperation data can
be scaled to reflect the relative contribution of each event
to the relationship and thus a measure of the intensity of the interactions between the two states. We define political alignment as cooperation sent by the recipient country to the donor divided by the amount of cooperation sent by the recipient to the Soviet Union. 5
coop + 1.0 polaln --- idon---
coop + 1.0 iusr w here■
coop = total amount of political cooperation sent by idon recipient to donor
coop . = total amount of political cooperation sent by lusr recipient to USSR
In terms of the spatial-temporal domain of our study we decided to observe the behavior of eight donor nations during the period 1960-1977. Five of these nations, the United States of America, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Japan were included, because they are the largest contributors of foreign aid. The remaining three nations, Canada, The Netherlands and Sweden were selected as they are often credited with an orientation toward foreign aid that differs greatly from that of the other donors in our study Rubin(1966), 0'Leary(1967), Thorp(1971), Wall(1973) and Hoadley(1980). We thought they would provide an interesting as well as illuminating contrast for reasons elaborated on below.
There are eighty-eight (88) nations included in the set of
potential recipients covered in this study. As far as the
selection of these nations was concerned we were originally
p r e p a r e d t o i n c l u d e a l l o f t h e n a t i o n s t h a t t h e D A C t r e a t s a s r e c i p i e n t s . H o w e v e r , s o m e c o u n t r i e s w e r e e x c l u d e d f r o m c o n s i d e r a t i o n b e c a u s e w e w e r e u n a b l e t o l o c a t e e i t h e r t h e e c o n o m i c o r p o l i t i c a l d a t a t h a t w a s n e c e s s a r y t o c o n d u c t o u r a n a l y s i s . ( A c o m p l e t e l i s t i n g o f t h e r e c i p i e n t n a t i o n s i n t h i s s t u d y a p p e a r s i n t h e a p p e n d i x . ) T h e t i m e s p a n o f t h e s t u d y w a s t o a g r e a t e x t e n t a l s o d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a . T h e s t a r t i n g p o i n t o f o u r i n v e s t i g a t i o n i s t i e d t o t h e a c t i v i t i e s o f t h e D A C . T h e f i r s t y e a r i n w h i c h b i l a t e r a l f l o w s o f r e s o u r c e s b e t w e e n d o n o r a n d r e c i p i e n t n a t i o n s a r e r e p o r t e d i s 196 0 . T h e l a s t y e a r f o r w h i c h w e w e r e a b l e t o c o l l e c t c o m p l e t e d a t a o n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l p o l i t i c a l b e h a v i o r a n d e c o n o m i c a n d d e m o g r a p h i c a t t r i b u t e s o f t h e r e c i p i e n t n a t i o n s w a s 1977.
F o r t h e y e a r 1 9 6 8 t h e D A C d o e s n o t r e p o r t f i g u r e s f o r t h e b i l a t e r a l f l o w o f a i d . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h i s p a r t i c u l a r y e a r f a l l s o u t o f t h e a n a l y s i s .
T h e p r i n c i p a l h y p o t h e s i s w e t e s t r e f l e c t s a s y n t h e s i s o f t h e t w o d o m i n a n t e x p l a n a t i o n s o f t h e m o t i v a t i o n s b e h i n d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d : t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l a n d t h e u t i l i t a r i a n . A s s t a t e d a b o v e , t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l h o l d s t h a t f o r e i g n a i d i s d i s t r i b u t e d b y t h e d o n o r s a m o n g t h e r e c i p i e n t s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e n e e d . A c o u n t e r v i e w , t h e u t i l i t a r i a n , m a i n t a i n s t h a t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d i s d e t e r m i n e d b y t h e n a t i o n a l i n t e r e s t s o f t h e d o n o r s , s p e c i f i c a l l y t h e i r e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s w i t h t h e r e c i p i e n t s . It i s o u r b e l i e f t h a t b o t h o f t h e s e p o s i t i o n s a r e v a l i d t o s o m e d e g r e e . A n d i t i s o u r i n t e n t i o n t o u s e b o t h o f t h e m t o
o f f e r a n a l t e r n a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e i g n aid .
C S a w y e r , 196 7 ; P l i s c h k e , 1 9 7 6 )
A n a d d i t i o n a l e l e m e n t o f o u r a n a l y s i s i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h t h e s i z e p r o b l e m . T h e g e n e r a l f o r e i g n p o l i c y b e h a v i o r o f l a r g e s t a t e s v a r i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y f r o m t h a t o f s m a l l o n e s E a s t , 1 9 7 3 ; H e r m a n n , 1 9 7 5 ; a n d T h e f o r e i g n a i d p o l i c y o f l a r g e a n d s m a l l s t a t e s a l s o d i f f e r s , ( H o a d l e y , 1 9 8 0 ) . T h i s d i s s i m i l a r i t y i n f o r e i g n p o l i c y b e h a v i o r a r i s e s i n p a r t f r o m t h e s u b s t a n t i a l d i f f e r e n c e s t h e s e t w o t y p e s o f s t a t e s p o s s e s s c o n c e r n i n g t h e s c o p e o f t h e i r f o r e i g n p o l i c y g o a l s a n d t h e a m o u n t o f r e s o u r c e s t h e y c a n d e v o t e t o t h e r e a l i z a t i o n o f t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s . W e e x p e c t t h a t t h i s m a t t e r s i n t h e d e c i s i o n m a k i n g o n f o r e i g n a i d . W h i l e a l l s t a t e s e n g a g e d i n f o r e i g n a i d d i s t r i b u t i o n a r e e x p e c t e d t o c o n f o r m t o t h e s y n t h e t i c m o d e l o u t l i n e d a b o v e , w e p o s i t t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s i n e m p h a s i s a r e r e l a t e d t o t h e s i z e o f t h e d o n o r . T h e f o r e i g n p o l i c y g o a l s a n d c a p a b i l i t i e s o f t h e l a r g e d o n o r s l e a d t o a m o r e u t i l i t a r i a n d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d . T h e s e s a m e f a c t o r s i n s m a l l d o n o r s c o n t r i b u t e t o a g r e a t e r e m p h a s i s o n h u m a n i t a r i a n c o n s i d e r a t i o n s .
L a r g e d o n o r s a r e n a t i o n s w i t h g l o b a l s e c u r i t y a n d e c o n o m i c c o n c e r n s . T h e y p e r c e i v e t h e i r n a t i o n a l s e c u r i t y a n d e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a s e i t h e r a d v a n c e d o r t h r e a t e n e d b y d e v e l o p m e n t s f a r f r o m t h e i r b o r d e r s . M o r e o v e r , t h e r e s o u r c e s a t t h e d i s p o s a l o f t h e l a r g e d o n o r s t o i n f l u e n c e t h e s e e v e n t s a r e c o n s i d e r a b l e . A c c o r d i n g l y , l a r g e d o n o r s a t t e m p t t o c o n t r o l d i r e c t l y t h o s e d e v e l o p m e n t s w h i c h a f f e c t
their concerns. Foreign aid is one of many tools employed by the large donors toward this end, Morgenthau(1962), Mason(1964), Feis(1966), MontgomeryC1967), and Black(1968).
Foreign aid strengthens the economic prospects of the donor, PincusC1967), Hayter(1971), Wall(1973), Weismann(1974) and Beenstock(1980). It widens the market for large donor exports. It provides new opportunities for productive private investments. And it builds more promising, lower cost sources of supply for imports. In the area of national security foreign aid is used to advance the defense perimeter of the large donor, Westwood(1966), 0'Leary(1967), Nelsen(1968), Thorp(1971), White(1974), Tendier(1975) and McNeil(1981) It ensures political stability in developing countries and lessens the threat of communist insurgencies.
It helps to maintain governments friendly to large donor concerns in power. It elicits support from recipient countries in the United Nations and other international organizations. And it purchases military bases and ports for the large donors in the developing countries.
Therefore, large donors, such as the United States of America, the United Kingdom, France, the Federal Republic of Germany and Japan place more emphasis on economic and political relationships than need when they distribute aid to recipients.
Small donors are nations with narrower concerns. Their
economic and security interests are not as wide ranging as
that of the large donors. The resources available to them
to further their goals are not as abundant. For these
r e a s o n s s m a l l d o n o r s h a v e n o t a t t e m p t e d t o c o n t r o l e v e n t s o u t s i d e t h e i r b o r d e r s a s d i r e c t l y a s t h e l a r g e d o n o r s . I n s t e a d t h e y h a v e b e c o m e a c c u s t o m e d t o w o r k i n g w i t h i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l a g e n c i e s t o a d v a n c e t h e i r n a t i o n a l g o a l s , H e r m a n n C 1 9 7 5 ) a n d H o a d l e y ( 1 9 8 0 ) . A s a r e s u l t , a m o n g s m a l l d o n o r s t h e r e a r e h i g h l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t f o r i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r m s . S m l l d o n o r s a r e c o m m i t t e d t o u p h o l d i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l r e s o l u t i o n s . T h e y a r e s e n s i t i v e t o e x t e r n a l p r e s s u r e i n c l u d i n g t h a t o f p e e r o p i n i o n . A n d s m a l l d o n o r s t e n d t o a c c e p t n o r m s a g r e e d u p o n b y t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m m u n i t y a n d s t r i v e t o r e a c h t h e m . C o n s e q u e n t l y , f o r e i g n a i d i s n o t v i e w e d b y s m a l l d o n o r s a s a m e a n s t o f u r t h e r t h e i r o w n i n t e r e s t s . B u t r a t h e r i t i s s e e n a s a w a y t o d e v e l o p t h e t h i r d w o r l d . T h e r e f o r e , s m a l l d o n o r s , s u c h a s C a n a d a , S w e d e n a n d T h e N e t h e r l a n d s p l a c e m o r e e m p h a s i s o n n e e d t h a n e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s w h e n t h e y g i v e aid .
A s i d e f r o m t h e d i f f e r e n c e s a c r o s s n a t i o n s i n e m p h a s i s i n a i d d i s t r i b u t i o n , w e a r e a l s o i n t e r e s t e d i n t h e c o n s i s t e n c y i n t h e r e v e a l e d p r e f e r e n c e s o f t h e d o n o r s . T h e f i n d i n g s o f p r e v i o u s r e s e r a r c h i n t h i s a r e a , c i t e d e a r l i e r , c o n f l i c t . T h e r e p o r t e d e f f e c t s o f s e l e c t e d d e t e r m i n a n t s o n t h e b e h a v i o r o f t h e d o n o r s v a r y f r o m s t u d y t o s t u d y . T h i s c o u l d b e e x p l a i n e d b y t h e m a n n e r i n w h i c h t h e i n d i v i d u a l s t u d i e s w e r e c o n d u c t e d . D i f f e r e n t t i m e p e r i o d s , r e c i p i e n t n a t i o n s a m p l e s a n d / o r m e t h o d o l o g i c a l t o o l s c a n p r o d u c e d i f f e r e n t r e s u l t s . H o w e v e r , i t i s a l s o r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t t h e c o n t r a d i c t o r y f i n d i n g s s u g g e s t t h a t d o n o r s d o n o t a l w a y s d i s t r i b u t e a i d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e s a m e s e t o f c r i t e r i a . T h a t
is, t h e a i d p r e f e r e n c e s o f d o n o r s m a y c h a n g e o v e r t i m e .
T h e p l a u s a b i l i t y o f t h e n o t i o n o f c h a n g e s i n a i d p r e f e r e n c e s i n c r e a s e s w h e n o n e c o n s i d e r s t h e d o m e s t i c a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n t e x t s w i t h i n w h i c h t h e s e d e c i s i o n s a r e m a d e . S i t u a t i o n s m a y a r i s e i n b o t h a r e a s t h a t m i g h t i n d u c e a d o n o r t o o h a n g e h i s a i d d i s t r i b u t i o n p o l i c y . D o m e s t i c a l l y , t h e d o n o r m a y r e s p o n d t o n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c d i f f i c u l t i e s b y d i s t r i b u t i n g a i d t o s t r e n g t h e n e x i s t i n g i n t e r n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c r e l a t i o n s h i p s o r t o c r e a t e n e w o n e s . O n t h e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s i d e , E a s t - W e s t r e l a t i o n s m i g h t c h a n g e f o r t h e b e t t e r , a n d b e c o m e l e s s a n t a g o n i s t i c . T h i s d e v e l o p m e n t c o u l d c a u s e d o n o r s t o v i e w a i d d i s t r i b u t i o n l e s s i n t e r m s o f c o l d w a r a l i g n m e n t s . I n t h i s e v e n t , t h e p o l i t i c a l r e l a t i o n s b e t w e e n a d o n o r a n d a r e c i p i e n t w o u l d a s s u m e l e s s i m p o r t a n c e i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e i n f l u e n c e o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l n o r m s o n t h e a i d p r e f e r e n c e s o f t h e d o n o r s s h o u l d n o t b e u n d e r e s t i m a t e d . P r e s s u r e b y t h e T h i r d W o r l d a n d a d e s i r e t o c o n f o r m t o t h e e x p e c t a t i o n ' s o f o n e ' s p e e r s m a y c a u s e a d o n o r t o a d o p t a l e s s u t i l i t a r i a n a p p r o a c h t o t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d .
L e t u s r e s t a t e o u r e x p e c t a t i o n s . (1) I n g e n e r a l , n e e d a n d t h e u t i l i t a r i a n c o n c e r n s o f t h e d o n o r s b o t h c o m b i n e t o d e t e r m i n e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f f o r e i g n a i d . ( 2 ) I n g e n e r a l , t h e s m a l l d o n o r s p l a c e g r e a t e r e m p h a s i s o n n e e d t h a n d o t h e l a r g e d o n o r s w h o w i l l b e m o r e r e s p o n s i v e t o u t i l i t a r i a n c o n c e r n s . (3) T h e r e v e a l e d p r e f e r e n c e s o f a i d d o n o r s m a y n o t b e s t a t i c . I m p l i e d h e r e i s t h e n o t i o n t h a t t h e g o a l s o r o b j e c t i v e s s t a t e s h a v e w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f
a i d c h a n g e o v e r t i m e .
A N A L Y S I S
T h e d e s i g n w e h a v e e m p l o y e d t o a n a l y z e t h e u t i l i t y o f t h e f o r m u l a t i o n s p e c i f i e d i n t h e l a s t s e c t i o n a s w e l l a s t o e x a m i n e t h e q u e s t i o n s d e a l i n g w i t h s i z e a n d o v e r - t i m e v a r i a t i o n i n p r e f e r e n c e s i s a s f o l l o w s . F o r e a c h o f t h e e i g h t a i d d o n o r s a n a n n u a l c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s w a s u n d e r t a k e n . A t a m a x i m u m , t h e r e w e r e e i g h t y - e i g h t p o s s i b l e c a s e s i n t h e s e c r o s s - s e c t i o n s . F o r e a c h d o n o r , t h e r e a r e s e v e n t e e n c r o s s - s e c t i o n a l a n a l y s e s , o n e f o r e a c h y e a r f r o m 1 9 6 0 t o 1 9 7 7 — w i t h t h e y e a r 1 9 6 8 e x c l u d e d b e c a u s e o f m i s s i n g d a t a o n t h e f o r e i g n a i d v a r i a b l e . W e w i l l p r o c e d e t h r o u g h t h e r e s u l t s f o r e a c h a i d d o n o r , p r o v i d i n g , i n t a b u l a r f o r m , s t a t i s t i c s p e r t i n e n t t o t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f e a c h c r o s s - s e c t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e b e t a w e i g h t s f o r e a c h o f t h e t e r m s i n t h e e q u a t i o n a r e p l o t t e d o v e r t h e e i g h t e e n y e a r p e r i o d . T h i s l a t t e r d e v i c e f a c i l i t a t e s t h e d i s p l a y o f t h e r e l a t i v e s t r e n g t h o f e a c h d e t e r m i n a n t a s w e l l a s a n y v a r i a t i o n t h e r e i n . O u r d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e s e r e s u l t s f o c u s e s o n t h r e e q u e s t i o n s :
(1) W h a t i m p a c t d i d t h e t h r e e p o s t u l a t e d d e t e r m i n a n t s h a v e o n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a i d ?
(2) W e r e t h e r e t e m p o r a l d i s c o n t i n u i t i e s o r t r e n d s i n t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e s e d e t e r m i n a n t s a n d t h u s i n d i c a t i o n s o f p r e f e r e n c e c h a n g e ?
(3) A r e t h e r e i n d i c a t i o n s t h a t l a r g e a n d s m a l l d o n o r s d i f f e r i n t e r m s o f t h e i r r e v e a l e d p r e f e r e n c e s a n d d o e s t h e d i f f e r e n c e a c c o r d w i t h t h e e x p e c t a t i o n t h a t l a r g e s t a t e s t e n d t o e m p h a s i z e u t i l i t a r i a n c o n c e r n s w h i l e s m a l l s t a t e s e m p h a s i z e n e e d ?
T H E U N I T E D S T A T E S
T h e c a s e o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i s i n t e r e s t i n g d u e m a i n l y t o t h e c h a n g e s t h a t a r e a p p a r e n t . ( R e f e r t o T a b l e 1 a n d G r a p h 1 . ) T h e t r a d e v a r i a b l e i s t h e d o m i n a n t d e t e r m i n a n t i n t h e 1 9 6 0 's. I n t h e t h e 1 9 7 0 's i t r e m a i n e d s i g n i f i c a n t , b u t l o s t s o m e o f i t s s t r e n g t h . T h e p o l i t i c a l a l i g n m e n t v a r i a b l e e x h i b i t e d j u s t t h e o p p o s i t e b e h a v i o r . T h e b e t a s c o r e s w e r e l o w i n t h e f i r s t p a r t o f o u r s t u d y a n d f o r a f e w y e a r s w e r e a c t u a l l y n e g a t i v e . L a t e r , d u r i n g t h e s e v e n t i e s , t h e s i z e o f t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h i s p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e i n c r e a s e s , i . e . , u n d e r t h e N i x o n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s a l i g n m e n t w i t h t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s b e c a m e a p r e r e q u i s i t e f o r t h e r e c e i p t o f e c o n o m i c a i d . A t t h e s a m e t i m e , t h o u g h , t h e s c o r e s f o r t h e f a c t o r n e e d b e c a m e s t r o n g e r a n d w e r e o f t e n g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c o m b i n e d s c o r e s o f t h e e c o n o m i c a n d p o l i t i c a l v a r i a b l e s . O f t e n t h e n e e d v a r i a b l e d e t e r m i n e s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f A m e r i c a n f o r e i g n e c o n o m i c a i d t o a g r e a t e r d e g r e e t h a n m o s t o b s e r v e r s w o u l d h a v e o r i g i n a l l y h y p o t h e s i z e d . I n f a c t i n 1 9 7 1 t h e n e e d v a r i a b l e i s t h e s i n g l e l a r g e s t d e t e r m i n a n t o f U . S . a i d d i s t r i b u t i o n .
T H E U N I T E D K I N G D O M
T h e r e s u l t s f o r t h e c a s e o f t h e U n i t e d K i n g d o m s h o w t h a t t h e t r a d e v a r i a b l e i s a g a i n t h e m o s t d o m i n a n t d e t e r m i n a n t .
( R e f e r t o T a b l e 2 a n d G r a p h 2 . ) A n d a g a i n t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h i s v a r i a b l e b e g a n t o d e c l i n e a r o u n d 1 9 7 1 . T h e s e c o n d m o s t i m p o r t a n t d e t e r m i n a n t o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f B r i t i s h
T a b l e 1
T h e D e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f A m e r i c a n B i l a t e r a l F o r e i g n E c o n o m i c A i d
Y e a r : N e e d
bl
P o l i t i c a l A l i g n m e n t
b 2
T r a d e R e l a t i o n s
b 3
( C o n s t a n t ) a
r v
F ( s i g . )
1 9 6 1 . 253 . 061 .45 2 , - 1 . 5 6 1 .46 7 2 0 . 5 9
( n = 6 8 ) ( . 0 8 7 ) ( . 0 9 2 ) ( . 0 7 3 ) ( . 7 5 5 )
1 9 6 2 .285 . 1 4 0 .29 5 , - 1 . 3 0 7 . 3 9 9 1 7 . 1 9
( n - 7 4 ) ( . 0 7 7 ) ( . 0 8 4 ) ( . 0 6 8 ) ( . 6 8 7 )
1 9 6 3 .245 . 0 4 2 .37 1 , - 1 . 0 1 1 . 456 2 1 . 1 8
( n - 7 3 ) ( . 0 7 6 ) ( .072). ( . 0 6 9 ) ( . 6 6 4 )
1 9 6 4 .26 3 - . 0 3 9 . 3 5 3 - 1 . 2 1 3 .36 8 1 5 . 1 8
( n - 7 4 ) ( . 0 7 8 ) ( . 0 7 8 ) ( . 0 6 7 ) ( . 7 0 8 )
1 9 6 5 . 3 4 7 - . 0 4 2 , .42 5 , - 2 . 2 3 3 . 5 0 9 2 7 . 6 8
( n - 7 8 ) ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 0 7 0 ) ( . 5 9 8 )
1 9 6 6 .321 . 0 0 7 .4 3 3 , - 2 . 2 0 5 .56 3 3 5 . 4 6
( n = 8 1 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 0 5 3 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 5 3 0 )
1 9 6 7 . 250 - . 0 0 4 .441, - 1 . 7 5 5 .500 2 9 . 0 0
( n - 8 2 ) ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 0 7 5 ) ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 5 7 8 )
1 9 7 0 . 3 7 4 .091 . 3 4 0 - 2 . 6 7 7 .552 3 4 . 3 5
( n = 8 2 ) ( . 0 5 7 ) ( . 0 6 7 ) ( . 0 5 9 ) ( . 5 1 9 )
1 9 7 1 . 414 . 0 7 9 .306, - 2 . 8 6 6 .545 3 3 . 4 0
( n = 8 2 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 6 8 ) ( . 0 5 9 ) ( . 5 3 4 )
1 9 7 2 .290 . 275 . 1 9 6 - 1 . 5 2 7 . 3 7 9 1 7 . 6 8
( n = 8 3 ) ( . 0 6 4 ) ( . 0 8 6 ) ( . 0 7 2 ) ( . 6 1 5 )
1 9 7 3 . 3 1 3 . 1 7 6 .218, - 1 . 9 9 5 .358 1 6 . 2 5
( n = 8 3 ) ( . 0 6 5 ) ( . 0 7 3 ) ( . 0 8 1 ) ( . 6 3 8 )
1 9 7 4 .377 . 1 6 6 . 146 , - 2 . 3 7 1 .39 7 1 9 . 2 7
( n = 8 4 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 0 7 0 ) ( . 5 8 2 )
1 9 7 5 . 3 6 4 . 2 3 4 . 1 1 2 - 1 . 9 6 1 .361 1 6 . 6 9
( n = 8 4 ) ( . 0 6 7 ) ( . 0 8 5 ) ( . 0 7 5 ) ( . 6 6 0 )
1 9 7 6 .285 . 1 6 2 , . 1 3 2 , - 1 . 2 1 3 .225 9 . 0 5
( n = 8 4 ) ( . 0 7 5 ) ( . 0 7 5 ) ( . 0 8 2 ) ( . 7 8 1 )
1 9 7 7 . 342 .096, .294, - 2 . 0 0 0 .32 0 1 4 . 3 5
( n = 8 7 ) ( .072) ( . 0 8 0 ) ( . 0 7 1 ) ( . 7 5 7 )
GRAPH 1
DETERMINANTS OF AMERICAN AID DISTRIBUTION
STAN. REG. COEFF. POL. ORNT. STAN. REG. COEFF. TRADESTAN. REG. COEFF. NEED
YEAR
YEAR
YEAR
T a b l e 2
T h e D e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f B r i t i s h B i l a t e r a l F o r e i g n E c o n o m i c A i d
Y e a r
•
N e e d b l
P o l i t i c a l A l i g n m e n t
b 2
T r a d e R e l a t i o n s
b 3
( C o n s t a n t ) a
: R 2
F ( s i g . )
1 9 6 1
•
, . 1 5 0 , z •I 7 3 , z • 1 3 7 , - 1 . 1 6 0 : . 1 2 5 4 . 1 6
( n = 6 7 ) ( . 0 6 8 ) ( . 0 7 7 ) ( . 0 6 3 ) ( . 6 0 1 )
1 9 6 2 s x •1 1 6 . .030, z . 2 2 2 , - 1 . 1 5 6 : . 1 8 1 6 . 3 1
( n = 7 3 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 0 7 3 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 5 4 8 )
1 9 6 3 , :
z •131, .072, z - 2 4 9 , - 1 . 3 7 6 : . 2 4 5 9 . 0 1
( n - 7 5 ) ( . 0 5 5 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 5 1 2 )
1 9 6 4 , •
. • 1 8 0 , .120, , . 1 9 1 - 1 . 4 8 8 : . 1 7 7 6 . 5 2
( n = 7 8 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 0 7 6 ) ( . 0 6 3 ) ( . 5 7 3 )
1 9 6 5 , •
x •135, z -083, , - 2 6 0 , - 1 . 3 5 1 : .20 1 7 . 5 7
( n = 7 9 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 0 6 5 ) ( . 5 6 6 )
1 9 6 6 ,
•
, • 1 8 7 , .170, z - 2 3 0 , - 1 . 6 4 3 : . 2 6 9 1 1 . 0 7
( n = 8 3 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 5 1 7 )
1 9 6 7 ,
:
, • 1 7 1 x - . 0 1 5 , z - 2 4 5 , - 1 . 6 2 0 : . 2 3 4 9 . 2 4
( n = 8 2 ) : ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 5 1 6 )
1 9 7 0 , J , • 1 8 5 , z • 1 9 9 x z - 2 0 2 , - 1 . 5 7 0 : .28 0 1 2 . 0 5
( n = 8 6 ) ( . 0 5 3 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 5 0 7 )
1 9 7 1 , J , . 1 5 4 , 7 - 0 5 5 , . 2 5 7 - 1 . 4 3 2 : . 1 8 0 7 . 2 4
( n = 8 6 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 7 6 ) ( . 0 6 8 ) ( . 5 7 5 )
1 9 7 2 , , • 175 z •146, . 2 2 8 - 1 . 4 9 2 : . 227 9 . 3 2
( n = 8 6 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 6 4 ) ( . 0 6 5 ) ( . 5 6 0 )
1 9 7 3 , • .200, z -092, . 1 9 9 - 1 . 6 3 6 : .22 5 9 . 3 6
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 5 1 7 )
1 9 7 4 , •
.236, z • 1 9 5 , . 1 7 2 - 1 . 9 0 8 : . 3 5 0 1 6 . 4 9
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 4 6 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 0 5 3 ) ( . 4 7 0 )
1 9 7 5 , , - 2 2 1 , z -005, , . 1 4 0 - 1 . 5 7 7 : . 1 8 5 7 . 5 2
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 5 2 ) ( . 0 5 7 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 5 4 9 )
1 9 7 6 ,
•
z • 1 8 6 z -218, z • 1 0 7 , - 1 . 2 6 3 : .341 1 6 . 0 6
( n = 8 8 ) ( . 0 4 3 ) ( . 0 4 6 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 4 6 4 )
1 9 7 7 z -269, z -042, . 1 3 3 - 2 . 0 2 6 : . 2 3 6 1 0 . 0 0
( n = 8 8 ) ( . 0 5 3 ) ( . 0 6 2 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 5 6 3 )
GRAPH 2
DETERMINANTS OF BRITISH AID DISTRIBUTION
YEAR
YEAR
ccI—
cn YEAR
aid in the first decade of our study is the need variable.
From 1973 on it is the strongest determinant. Still the combined effect of the trade and political alignment variables is more influential in determing the flow of aid.
However, the determinant that captures one's attention when studying the case of the United Kingdom is the political alignment variable. The large fluctuations of this variable provoke speculation. For most of the period of this study the sign is in the right direction: it is positive. Again this is what we had hypothesized. What we did not expect is the gross irregularity of pattern exhibited by this variable. Perhaps it has some connection with the decolonization process. We are aware of the fact that the lion's share of British bilateral aid goes to its CURRENT colonies and dependencies and that this type of behavior continues immediately after the granting of independence.
Such moves are usually accompanied by a great deal of cooperative behavior. Thus the years for which the political alignment variable shows high beta scores could be the years in which colonies were granted independence. The low scores for the political alignment variable could be reflecting the influence of the regular cooperative behavior of the developing countries toward the United Kingdom.
FRANCE
French aid policy seems at one level to be quite
straightforward: aid follows trade. (Refer to Table 3 and
Graph 3.) From 1964 on the variable trade is by far the most
dominant determinant in the distribution of French bilateral
T a b l e 3
T h e D e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f F r e n c h B i l a t e r a l F o r e i g n E c o n o m i c A i d
Y e a r N e e d P o l i t i c a l T r a d e ( C o n s t a n t ) A l i g n m e n t R e l a t i o n s
b l b 2 b 3 a
R F (sig.)
1 9 6 1 :
( n = 6 9 ) :
z . 0 1 4 , ( . 0 3 1 )
z •049, ( . 0 3 4 )
. 1 0 3 ( . 0 3 6 )
- . 3 0 3 ( . 3 0 0 )
: . 0 8 5 3 . 1 2
1 9 6 2 : . 0 4 0 . 1 6 2 z •195, - . 6 2 8 : . 2 6 0 9 . 7 0
( n = 7 5 ) : ( . 0 4 7 ) ( . 0 5 4 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 4 3 4 )
1 9 6 3 : . 0 3 4 .054, z -257, , " • 7 8 8 : . 1 8 9 6 . 7 5
( n = 7 5 ) : ( . 0 5 2 ) ( . 0 6 7 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 4 8 8 )
1 9 6 4 : . 0 0 0 z -085, z -419, , - • 5 2 6 : . 2 9 5 1 1 . 9 0
( n = 7 9 ) ( . 0 6 4 ) ( . 0 7 9 ) ( . 0 7 3 ) ( . 6 0 1 ) •
1 9 6 5 : . 0 2 4 z - 1 5 1 . z .360, , - . 6 1 1 : . 2 7 2 1 0 . 7 3
( n = 7 9 ) : ( . 0 6 2 ) ( . 0 8 1 ) ( . 0 7 1 ) ( . 5 7 5 )
1 9 6 6 : . 0 2 2 . 0 0 5 z .311, , - . 6 1 1 : . 2 4 5 9 . 9 8
( n - 8 4 ) : ( . 0 4 9 ) ( . 0 5 7 ) ( . 0 5 7 ) ( . 4 4 8 )
1 9 6 7 : .0 6 5 , , . 0 2 5 , z .324, , - • 9 3 0 : . 2 5 5 1 0 . 3 9
( n - 8 3 ) : ( . 0 5 2 ) ( . 0 6 8 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 4 7 5 ) •
1 9 7 0 J , • 1 4 1 z • 1 6 8 z -415, - 1 . 6 5 0 : .43 1 2 2 . 5 1
( n = 8 6 ) : ( . 0 5 3 ) ( . 0 5 5 ) ( . 0 6 2 ) ( . 4 8 8 )
1 9 7 1 : . 1 4 0 . 0 8 8 . 4 2 4 - 1 . 7 1 5 : . 3 6 2 1 7 . 1 2
( n = 8 6 ) : ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 6 8 ) ( . 0 5 9 ) ( . 5 3 4 )
1 9 7 2 : . 1 2 3 . 149, z -424, - 1 . 5 2 9 : . 3 0 6 . 1 3 . 5 4
( n = 8 6 ) : ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 0 7 2 ) ( . 0 7 8 ) ( . 6 3 9 )
1 9 7 3 : z •1 7 1 x , . 0 6 4 , . 3 4 7 - 1 . 8 1 6 : . 2 3 4 9 . 8 0
( n = 8 7 ) : ( . 0 6 4 ) ( . 0 7 5 ) ( . 0 7 4 ) ( . 6 4 2 ) •
1 9 7 4 J z .2 0 5 , .093, .40 3 - 2 . 2 8 9 : . 2 9 9 1 3 . 2 8
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 0 8 1 ) ( . 0 7 5 ) ( . 6 6 2 )
1 9 7 5 z .229, z •187, z -281, - 2 . 1 8 7 : .255 1 0 . 8 5
( n = 8 7 ) : ( . 0 7 2 ) ( . 0 7 7 ) ( . 0 7 9 ) ( . 7 3 1 )
1 9 7 6 : z -211, , . 1 9 9 . 2 8 8 - 2 . 8 8 5 : .225 9 . 4 5
( n = 8 8 ) : ( . 0 7 1 ) ( . 0 9 0 ) ( . 0 7 7 ) ( . 7 3 8 ) •
1 9 7 7 : .247, . 3 0 5 . 3 8 4 - 2 . 7 3 0 : . 3 5 5 1 6 . 9 9
( n = 8 8 ) : ( . 0 6 9 ) ( . 0 8 2 ) ( . 0 7 1 ) ( . 7 0 3 ) •
GRAPH 3
DETERMINANTS OF FRENCH AID DISTRIBUTION
YEAR
YEAR
YEAR
aid. The effect of the political variable is not unlike that of the British case. That is, it is erratic. When the beta scores are plotted they reveal a pattern that is also chracterized by rapid and large fluctuations. Still there are some important differences. In the French case the signs are in the hypothesized direction: they are all positive. The fluctuations, when they do appear, are not as large, nor do they occur as frequently as in the British case. Toward the end of the period under study, the effect of the political variable becomes more definite and becomes increasingly more influential. It further differs from the British case in that this variable is generally, for the early part of our study, the second strongest determinant of French aid distribution. ' During the period 1961-1967 the influence of need on French policy seems to have been discounted. It is not until after 1970 that it becomes a factor in the distribution process. And in the year 1972 the influence of the need variable surpasses that of the political alignment variable.
THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY
Aside from the strength of the need determinant in the case of the United States, our analysis has not revealed any great surprises. The case of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) is no exception. (Refer to Table 4 and Graph 4.) As was the case for the United States, the United Kingdom and France, the trade variable was the greatest determinant in the distribution of aid in the early sixties.
And like France it remains relatively important throughout
T a b l e 4
T h e D e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f G e r m a n B i l a t e r a l F o r e i g n E o o n o m i o A i d
Y e a r N e e d
b l
P o l i t i c a l T r a d e A l i g n m e n t R e l a t i o n s
6 b 2 b 3
( C o n s t a n t ) a
F ( s i g . )
1 9 6 1
( n = 6 6 ) *
z . 0 6 0 , ( . 0 6 9 )
- . 0 3 6 , ( . 0 6 9 )
. 2 0 1 , ( . 0 6 8 )
- . 7 0 0 ( . 5 9 3 )
: . 1 1 9 3 . 9 3
1 9 6 2 . 0 8 0 .003, .26 3 , - . 9 3 1 : . 2 0 7 7 . 2 7
( n = 7 3 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 7 4 ) ( . 0 6 6 ) ( . 5 1 5 )
1 9 6 3
•
. 1 5 0 - . 0 8 9 , .22 9 , - 1 . 2 1 8 : . 2 8 9 1 1 . 0 4
( n = 7 5 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 6 3 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 4 9 3 )
1 9 6 4 . 1 9 8 - . 0 6 0 . 1 8 1 - 1 . 5 2 4 : . 2 5 2 9 . 5 3
( n = 7 7 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 7 8 ) ( . 0 6 7 ) ( . 5 1 7 )
1 9 6 5 •
. 2 3 4 - . 0 2 1 . 2 8 0 - 1 . 9 2 4 : . 3 2 8 1 3 . 4 1
( n = 7 7 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 7 4 ) ( . 0 6 5 ) ( . 5 1 6 )
1 9 6 6 ,
•
. 2 3 5 - . 0 2 3 , .27 3 , - 1 . 8 9 4 : . 4 3 5 2 1 . 8 1
( n = 8 2 ) ( . 0 4 8 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 0 5 3 ) ( . 4 2 2 )
1 9 6 7
•
. 2 8 0 . 0 7 2 . 3 0 6 - 2 . 2 5 4 : . 4 9 3 2 7 . 6 4
( n - 8 3 ) ( . 0 4 6 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 0 5 3 ) ( . 4 0 9 )
1 9 7 0 . 2 5 5 - . 0 6 6 , . 2 6 4 - 1 . 9 0 4 : . 4 9 7 2 9 . 0 2
( n = 8 6 ) ( . 0 4 1 ) ( . 0 4 7 ) ( . 0 4 9 ) ( . 3 8 4 )
1 9 7 1 , I
. 2 6 6 .015, . 2 9 5 - 2 . 0 6 8 : . 4 7 9 2 7 . 1 1
( n = 8 6 ) ( . 0 4 3 ) ( . 0 5 4 ) ( . 0 5 2 ) ( . 4 0 8 )
1 9 7 2
•
. 3 0 3 - . 0 5 2 . 2 9 3 - 2 . 4 0 0 : . 5 6 4 3 7 . 7 7
( n = 8 6 ) ( . 0 4 0 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 0 4 6 ) ( . 3 7 8 )
1 9 7 3
:
. 3 3 3 . 0 5 4 . 2 5 3 - 2 . 2 5 2 : .531 3 3 . 5 5
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 4 0 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 0 4 9 ) ( . 8 9 8 )
1 9 7 4 . 3 4 9 - . 0 7 3 , . 2 3 8 - 2 . 3 4 5 : .568 3 8 . 7 7
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 4 2 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 0 4 8 ) ( . 4 1 8 )
1 9 7 5 , . 3 8 9 - . 0 0 5 , . 2 1 6 - 2 . 4 7 1 : . 4 9 5 2 9 . 2 0
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 4 8 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 0 5 2 ) ( . 4 8 3 )
1 9 7 6 ,
•
. 3 7 8 .013, . 1 6 4 - 2 . 1 5 8 : . 4 8 9 2 8 . 8 5
( n = 8 8 ) ( . 0 4 5 ) ( . 0 6 2 ) ( . 0 4 5 ) ( . 4 5 2 )
1 9 7 7
•
. 3 6 3 . 1 3 6 . 2 2 5 - 2 . 0 6 7 : .47 7 2 7 . 4 7
( n = 8 8 ) 2 ( . 0 4 8 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 4 8 5 )
GRAPH 4
DETERMINANTS OF GERMAN AID DISTRIBUTION
STAN. REG. COEFF. POL. ORNT. STAN. REG. COEFF. TRADESTAN. REG. COEFF. NEED
YEAR
YEAR
YEAR
the second, decade of our study. Again, as with the United Kingdom and France the political alignment variable displays a somewhat erratic influence. However, unlike the other large donors for most of the observations the signs are negative or the scores are so small as to be negligible.
There is a plausible explanation for these results. It has always been the position of the government of the FRG that aid should support its export oriented trade policy, White(1965), KnuselC1968), Bodemer(1974) and McKinley and Little(1978). Therefore, political relations are relatively unimportant in the German aid calculus. Germany differs from the other large donors with respect to another variable, need. In the early and middle sixties need had a modest effect on the distribution of aid. Its influence continued to grow steadily during the latter part of the decade until need emerges as the major determinant of German aid flows at the end of the period under study.
JAPAN
The Japanese case presents a result that is difficult to
understand given previous analyses of Japanese aid behavior
and the stated policy of successive Japanese
administrations, White(1964), Kiyoshi(1966), Sinha(1974),
HasegawaC1975) and Rix(1980). (Refer to Table 5 and Graph
5.) Need plays a major role in the distribution of Japanese
aid. Throughout the entire period of our study need rivals
trade as the determinant in Japanese policy. As
hypothesized the political alignment variable exerts a
modest influence on the distribution of Japanese aid.
T a b l e 5
T h e D e t e r m i n a n t s o f t h e D i s t r i b u t i o n o f J a p a n e s e B i l a t e r a l F o r e i g n E c o n o m i c A i d
Y e a r N e e d
b l
P o l i t i c a l T r a d e A l i g n m e n t R e l a t i o n s
b 2 b 3
( C o n s t a n t ) a
F
( s i g . )
1 9 6 1 :
( n = 6 8 ) :
z •1 4 1 x
( . 0 4 2 ) 7 - 0 3 2a ( . 0 4 7 )
z .130' ( . 0 4 3 )
- 1 . 3 3 9 ( . 3 4 9 )
: . 2 8 8 1 0 . 0 5
1 9 6 2 : . 1 4 6 .015 z •1 2 2 . - 1 . 3 5 9 : .33 3 1 3 . 0 3
( n = 7 3 ) : ( . 0 3 4 ) ( . 0 4 0 ) ( . 0 3 8 ) ( . 2 9 0 )
1 9 6 3 : . 1 8 9 - . 0 5 0 , . 1 9 2 - 1 . 8 6 8 : . 430 1 9 . 6 3
( n = 7 5 ) : ( . 0 4 2 ) ( . 0 4 7 ) ( . 0 4 5 ) ( . 3 4 8 )
1 9 6 4 : . 1 8 4 .070' z •163. - 1 . 7 2 4 : .401 1 7 . 9 9
( n = 7 7 ) ( . 0 3 7 ) ( . 0 4 9 ) ( . 0 3 9 ) ( . 3 1 8 )
1 9 6 5 : . 245 .075' z •1 9 7 x - 2 . 2 5 1 : .41 0 1 9 . 3 0
( n = 8 0 ) ( . 0 4 7 ) ( . 0 5 4 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 3 9 8 ) ■
1 9 6 6 : . 2 2 4 .017' z •1 9 8 , - 2 . 0 7 8 : .41 7 2 1 . 0 4
( n = 8 5 ) : ( . 0 4 3 ) ( . 0 4 3 ) ( . 0 4 4 ) ( . 3 6 4 )
1 9 6 7 : . 2 3 9 ' .093' z .23 3 ' - 2 . 3 0 9 : .440 2 2 . 7 5
( n = 8 4 ) : ( . 0 4 4 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 0 4 7 ) ( . 3 7 8 )
1 9 7 0 : .270' z -094' z -265' - 2 . 6 0 9 : .463 2 5 . 5 0
( n = 8 6 ) ( . 0 4 7 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 4 1 1 )
1 9 7 1 : . 2 5 9 . 1 5 4 . 2 7 7 - 2 . 6 1 1 : . 5 2 7 3 2 . 6 2
( n = 8 6 ) : ( . 0 4 4 ) ( . 0 5 4 ) ( . 0 4 9 ) ( . 3 9 9 )
1 9 7 2 : . 2 7 3 .086' z .291' - 2 . 8 4 8 : .477 2 6 . 8 9
( n = 8 6 ) : ( . 0 4 8 ) ( . 0 6 0 ) ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 4 3 2 )
1 9 7 3 : . 3 2 4 .060 , .32 8 - 3 . 3 1 3 : . 5 1 7 3 1 . 7 2
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 5 9 ) ( . 4 6 6 ) •
1 9 7 4 : . 3 3 4 .050' z -330' - 3 . 3 4 8 : . 5 4 7 3 5 . 6 9
( n = 8 7 ) : ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 0 7 3 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( . 4 6 4 )
1 9 7 5 : .395' .019' z -325' - 3 . 8 8 2 : .592 4 2 . 7 0
( n = 8 7 ) ( . 0 5 1 ) ( - 0 6 0 ) ( . 0 4 8 ) ( . 4 8 4 )
1 9 7 6 : . 3 2 2 ' . 116' z -325' - 3 . 1 4 2 : . 5 6 7 3 9 . 0 1
( n = 8 8 ) : ( . 0 5 0 ) ( . 0 6 1 ) ( . 0 4 6 )
i
•\ Ito1oo11• 1o111
1 9 7 7 : .371 .037 . 3 8 8 - 3 . 6 6 1 : . 5 3 5 3 4 . 8 4
( n = 8 8 ) : ( . 0 5 8 ) ( . 0 7 8 ) ( . 0 5 6 ) ( . 5 5 6 )
GRAPH 5
DETERMINANTS OF JAPANESE AID DISTRIBUTION
YEAR
.43000 - •
Luia ccor
□CJ
LuiCD or
.01000 -- .22000 --
a:
57 -.2 0 0 0 0
1960.0 1964.5 1969.0
YEAR
1973.5 1978.0
orO
aQ_
Lui
3 . 0 1 0 0 0 --
CD Lui C£
-.20000 1960.0
CD
.43000 - ■
.22000 -■
1964.5 1969.0 YEAR
1973.5 1978.0
