Review
A policy review of synergies and trade-offs in South African climate change mitigation and air pollution control strategies
Carmen Klausbruckner
a,*, Harold Annegarn
b, Lucas R.F. Henneman
c, Peter Rafaj
daJohannesKeplerUniversity,Linz,Austria
bEnergyInstitute,CapePeninsulaUniversityofTechnology,CapeTown,SouthAfrica
cGeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,Atlanta,GA,USA
dInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Laxenburg,Austria
1. Introduction
South Africa is anemerging countryand thesecondlargest economyinAfrica.Intermsofenergy,akeytoSouthAfrica’spast economic success was low energy prices that attracted and supportedenergyintensiveindustries.Inturn,thishasledtohigh emissions per capita of greenhouse gases (GHG) from the predominantlycoal-firedpower industry.Overthepastdecade, however, the relative abundance of low-cost electricity has changed—inthepastyearstherehavebeenelectricitygeneration shortfallsandforcedblackouts,andelectricitypriceshaverisenat rateswellaboveinflation.
The power sector in SouthAfricais dominatedby thestate owned company Eskom, which produces 95% of the country’s electricity1. The main resource used for power generation is coal2.South Africais thelargestCO2emitterinAfrica. In 2004,
SouthAfricaemitted440MtCO2eq.,whichwasaround1%ofthe globalemissions.Theshareincreasedtoalmost1.4%in20103,giving SouthAfricathestatusofoneoftheworld’smostcarbonintensive economies.AttheUNFCCCConferenceofthePartiesinCopenhagen (COP 15)in 2009, the countrymade a political commitment to reducesignificantlyitsGHGemission(UNFCCC,2011).
Localairpollutionisanotherpressingissueduetoitsnegative healthimpacts(Normanetal.,2007;Matingaetal.,2014;Shirinde etal.,2014).Electricitygeneration,industrialprocesses,domestic energy use and vehicular exhaust emissions are the main contributorstoairpollutioninSouthAfrica(Scorgieetal.,2004).
EnvironmentalissuesinSouthAfricaarefrequentlyconnected withthequestionofenvironmentaljustice,sincetheseissuesare linkedtothequestionofpoverty.Localair pollutiondispropor- tionallyaffectspoorer(historicallydisadvantagedblack)commu- nities that are located close to industries (Dugard and Alcaro, 2013).Useofinferiorqualityfuelburningappliancesexposethese communities toconcentrationsof smoke and carbonmonoxide ARTICLE INFO
Articlehistory:
Received23July2015
Receivedinrevisedform12November2015 Accepted1December2015
Keywords:
Climatechange Airpollution Contradictingpolicies Co-benefits GAINS SouthAfrica
ABSTRACT
ClimatechangemitigationandairqualitymanagementaremostlyaddressedseparatelyinSouthAfrican legalactsandpolicies.Thisapproachisnotalwayscoherent,especiallyinthecontextofotherserious issuesSouthAfricaisfacing,suchaspovertyalleviation.Policiesimplementedto mitigateclimate changemightincreasenegativehealthaffectsduetounanticipatedoutcomes(e.g.increasedlocalair pollution),and these indirect consequences must therefore be taken intoaccount whendevising mitigation strategies.However, greenhouse gas mitigation policies can also have co-benefits and positiveimpactsonlocalairpollution.Anevidence-basedapproachthattakesintoaccountgreenhouse gasemissions,ambientairpollutants,economicfactors(affordability,costoptimisation),socialfactors (poverty alleviations, public health benefits), and political acceptability is needed tackle these challenges. A proposal is made that use of an integrated climate/air pollution techno-economic optimisingmodel,suchastheGreenhouseGasandAirPollutionSynergies(GAINS)model,mayprovidea rationaldecisionsupporttooltoguidepolicymakersintoeffectivestrategiesforcombinedClimate ChangeandAirQualitymitigationmeasures.
ß2015ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.
* Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+4369919135501.
E-mailaddress:c.klausbruckner@gmx.at(C.Klausbruckner).
1http://www.eskom.co.za/OurCompany/CompanyInformation/Pages/
Company_Information.aspx(accessed10.11.2015).
2FormoreinformationontheSouthAfricancoalsectorsee(Eberhard,2011).
3Seehttp://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.KT/countries(accessed 10.11.2015).
ContentslistsavailableatScienceDirect
Environmental Science & Policy
j our na l h ome p a ge : w ww . e l se v i e r. co m/ l oc a te / e nv sci
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.12.001 1462-9011/ß2015ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.
thatcauseadversehealtheffects(Shirindeetal.,2014).Further- more, poorer households are likely to be more vulnerable to adverseeffectsofclimatechange,a considerationthathasbeen taken intoaccount in South African climatechange adaptation strategies(DEA,2013).
The purpose of this paper is to conduct a policy and legal analysisofSouthAfricanclimateandairpollutioncontrolpolicy strategies.ThesecondsectiongivesaperspectiveonSouthAfrica’s overall policy orientation, and explores issues surrounding air pollutionandclimatechange.Thepolicyframeworksinthefields ofairqualityandclimatechangeareoutlinedinthethirdsection.
Thediscussionincludesanoverviewofthelegalframework,with specialattentionpaidtohowthedifferentpoliciesarticulatewith eachother.Additionaldetails(especiallyoninternationalcommit- ments,constitutionalrights, legislation,andregulations) canbe foundintheSupplementaryMaterial.Thefourthsectionexplores inconsistenciesandcontradictionsbetweenairqualityandclimate changepolicies,andimplementationstrategieswithinthecurrent legaland policyframework.In thefinalsection,a resolutionof theseinherentcontradictionsisofferedthroughtheimplementa- tion of an evidence-based, integrated approach, together with criteriaforemployingthisapproachthatisapplicablealsoforother developingcountries facingsimilarproblems.Thisapproachhas beenadoptedsuccessfullyforintegrated assessmentsinEurope andinnumerousdevelopingcountriesinAsia(Purohitetal.,2010, 2013;Chenetal.,2015).
2. SouthAfrica’spositiononmitigatingclimatechangeandthe problemoflocalairpollution
2.1. Climatechange
ClimatechangeisaglobalissuethatalsoaffectsSouthAfrica.In 2013SouthAfricawasranked27thintheGlobalClimateRiskIndex (Kreftetal.,2014).SouthAfricahasratifiedthemajortreatieson climatechange:the1992UNConventionon ClimateChangein 1997,andthe1997KyotoProtocolin2002.Obligationsregarding these treaties are determined according to the principle of common but differentiated responsibility. South Africais listed as a developing countryin Annex Iof the KyotoProtocol, and thereforehasnoobligationstoreduceGHGemissions.Neverthe- less,attheUNFCCCConferenceofthePartiesin Copenhagenin 2009(COP15),SouthAfricacommitteditselftoreduceitsGHG emissions34%by2020and42%by2025incomparisonwiththe
‘‘Business as Usual’’ trajectory4 (UNFCCC, 2011), subject to conditionsoftechnicalandfinancialsupportfromthedeveloped countries.
2.2. Airpollution
Ambient–especiallyindoor– airpollution,aremajorpublic health issues. Local air pollution increases the risk of acute respiratorytractinfectionsandpneumonia,especiallyinchildren oflow-income communities—in2012thepneumonia incidence rateforchildrenunderfiveyearswas66.8outof10005,andan increasedriskofwheezingforchildrenduetooutdoorandindoor airpollutionwasfoundintheChildHighveldPriorityAreaStudy (Shirindeetal.,2014).
Domesticfuel use(mainlyof coal, woodand kerosene) is a sourceofindoorand localair pollution. Theproblem occursin SouthAfricaparticularlyininformalsettlementsnearmajorcities, butalsoinruralareas.Especiallyinwinter,ambientparticulate
concentrationscanreachdangerouslyhighlevelsinplacessuchas Soweto,SouthAfrica’slargesttownship(Scorgieetal.,2004).
The use of electricity for cooking is increasing from58% in 2002to78%in2013(GeneralHouseholdSurvey,2014).However, in some provinces (Limpopo, KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga, EasternCape) solidfuels remainanimportantsourceof energy forcooking.Evenifhouseholdsareelectrified,otherfuelsarestill usedextensivelyforcooking,foreconomicreasons6(Matingaetal., 2014).Apartfromairpollution,theuseofsolidfuelsincreasesthe likelihoodofburninjuriesandfireaccidents(Kimemiaetal.,2014).
3. Existingpolicies
Climate change is a global concern with GHG reductions discussed on the international level, whereas air pollution is a nationalconcernthatisaddressedprimarilyonnational,provincial, andlocallevels.However,measurestoreduceGHGemissionshave tobe taken on the national and local levels.To understand the dynamicsbetweenclimatechangeandairpollution,itisnecessary toexaminethepolicypapersandlegalmeasuresacrossallthese areas. Legal measures in South Africa include the National Environmental Management: AirQuality Act (NEM:AQA) andits instruments(AmbientAirQualityStandards(AAQS),PriorityAreas, Minimum EmissionStandards (MES),PollutionPrevention Plans, EmissionLicences),andareoutlinedintheSupplementaryMaterial.
Beforeanalysingspecificmeasuresincertainpolicyareas,the overall directionofSouth Africanpolicydevelopment hastobe outlined toshowthenationalpriorities. Asa startingpoint, an overviewisgivenoftherecentlydevelopedNationalDevelopment Plan(NDP),whichisintendedastheoverarchingpolicyframework forallaspectsofnationaldevelopmentoverthenextdecadeand beyond(NationalPlanningCommission,2013).
TheNationalDevelopmentPlanwaspreparedbythepresiden- tialappointedNationalPlanningCommission.TheaimoftheNDPis toprovide implementablesteps towards the sustaineddevelop- mentofSouthAfrica.Itcomprisesallsectors(interaliaemploy- ment, poverty reduction, growth, health, infrastructure, etc.), identifies challenges, and givesa comprehensive outlook ofthe futurechallengesofthecountrywiththetimehorizonto2030.In ordertoimplementtheNationalDevelopmentPlan,theMedium- TermStrategicFramework(MTSF)2014–2019waspublished(The Presidency,2014).TheNDPstressesthatthehighestpriorityshould be given to increase employment and improve the quality of education.Thedocument focusesoneconomicdevelopment and takesintoconsiderationtheneedforelectricity(sufficientsupply) for economicgrowth.GHGmitigationand healthprotectionare detailedaschallengesinthiscontext.AmajoremphasisoftheNDP is theneedforinvestmentininfrastructureforpublic transport, exploitationofcoalresources,distributionanduseofnaturalgas, and installation of 20000MW renewable electricity by 2030 (comparedto1000MWin2009)(Edkinsetal.,2010).
AccordingtotheNationalDevelopmentPlan,95%oftheSouth Africanpopulationshouldhaveaccesstoelectricityby2030.An additional 29000MW of electric capacity is needed by 2030, which means new installed capacity of about 40000MW (20000MWrenewables) due to thedecommissioning of some oldercoal-firedpower stations.TheNationalDevelopmentPlan also addresses the need for affordable electricity for the poor.
However, thenecessity toincrease electricity prices tofinance Eskom is mentioned. The plan acknowledges the problem of energy poverty and the need for safe domestic combustion.
Concretemeasuresforachievingthesegoalsarenotspecifiedin theplan.
4http://www.climateaction.org.za/cop17-cmp7/
sa-government-position-on-climate-change(6.7.2015)).
5http://indicators.hst.org.za/healthstats/209/data(accessed10.11.2015). 6Seehttp://soer.deat.gov.za/42.html(accessed10.11.2015).
TheNDPreferstotheClimateChangeResponseWhitePaper (SouthAfricanGovernment,2011),whichisdiscussedin more detailbelow.Itismentionedintheplanthattheintroductionof carbontaxeshastobehandledcarefully,especiallyincontextof risingelectricityprices.TheWhitePaperproposesinterventions toavoidnegativeeffectsonhouseholdenergypoverty.Problems of air pollution and energy poverty are addressed, but air pollution is not specifically contemplated as a major health concern. Indoor air pollution and local air pollution are not mentionedintheWhitePaperunderthesectiononhealth,but theyare discussedin other high-leveldocuments,such asthe National Climate Change and Health Adaptation Plan (DEA, 2013).
4. ClimatechangemitigationinSouthAfrica
Several reports, policy papers and, increasingly, legislative instruments deal with climate change. The focus is on the management of inevitable impacts due to climate change and adaption and on the reduction of GHG emissions in order to contributetoglobaleffortstomitigateGHG.Potentialmitigations strategies include energy efficiency, the use of clean coal technologies, a switch to renewables (especially solar energy, see Pegels, 2010; Winkler, 2005; Winkler et al., 2009) and/or nuclear power. Furthermore, power generation from waste incinerationandtheuseofbiofuels,aswellastheincreaseduse ofhydropower(e.g.GrandIngaDamProject;seeIEA,2014)are mentionedin SouthAfrica’s mitigationstrategies.Legaloptions includeregulationssuchasemissionsstandardsinthetransport sector,theindustrialsector,orthepowersector(seefurtherinthe Supplementary Material). Enforcement is seen as the major problemforthesuccessoftheseinstruments.Otheroptionsare marketinterventions,suchascarbontaxesthataimtointernalise external costs induced by climate-related damages or the introductionofcarbonbudgeting(WinklerandMarquard,2012;
SouthAfricanGovernment,2011).
Themostcomprehensiveworkonmitigationstrategieswasthe Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS) process, mandated by thecabinet,whichtookplacefrom2005to20087.Theaimofthe projectwastoexaminethepossiblelong-termstrategieswhereby SouthAfricacouldcontributetothemitigationofclimatechange.
The‘‘RequiredbyScience’’scenarioisdrivenbyaclimatetarget, witha goal for South Africa to reduce GHG emissions by the percentagethatisgloballyneededtoarchivethe28Cgoal(a30–
40% reduction in the year 2050 compared to the 2003 levels) (ScenariobuildingTeam,2007).
Based on the outcomes of the LTMS, the Department of EnvironmentalAffairs(DEA)in2011definedthePeak,Plateauand Decline (PPD) emission reduction trajectory as South Africa’s contributiontotheglobal28Cgoal(Fig.1)(DEA,2011,2014):
South Africa’s emissions topeak in theperiod 2020 to2025 (within therange of398Mtand583MtCO2eq.by2020and 614MtCO2eq.by2025)
plateaufor10years(398to615MtCO2eq.)
declineofemissionsfrom2036onwards(2050:212to428Mt CO2eq.).
Themostimportantpolicypaperonclimatechangemitigation, theNationalClimateChangeResponseWhitePaper(publishedin 2011),referstothisgoalandmentionslowercarbonemissionsin
electricitygeneration,andenergyefficiencyandinterventionsin thetransport sectoras themidtermstrategies withthebiggest potential.
Measuresthathavealreadybeentakenincludetheintroduc- tioninSeptember2010ofanenvironmentallevyonnewvehicle purchases(R75pergramofCO2emissionsperkilometre,overa thresholdof120g/km).Thislevyaddsfrom2to4%tothetotal priceof anewcar.A levyonelectricity(2.0c/kWh) produced from non-renewable sources was introduced in 2009 and increased to 2.5c/kWh in 2011. Energy efficiency measures were introduced in the building sector in 2011; the National Building Regulations and Building Standards (SANS 10,400) incorporate minimum insulation requirements, solar heating systems,andefficientairconditioningandventilationsystems, andintroducedstandardsforenergyefficiencylabelling(SANS 941)fordomesticappliances. Measurestopromotetheuseof renewablesincludetheRenewableEnergyFeed-InTariff(REFIT) programmethatwaslaunchedbytheNationalEnergyRegulator ofSouthAfrica(NERSA)in 2009.Thefeed-intariffsystem was declaredasinconsistentwithcurrentlegislationandabidding process was introduced in 2011 (the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement program—REIPPP).
(MsimangaandSebitosi,2014)IncreasinglyGHGemissionsare starting to be targeted in air quality legislation, where, for example,‘‘significantemitters ofgreenhousegas’’will have to incorporate GHG mitigation measures in their Air Pollution PreventionPlans.(SeefurtherintheSupplementaryMaterial.)
Onemeasure tolower carbon emissionsin South Africaare carbontaxes,whichwerescheduledforimplementationin2015, buthavebeenpostponedto2016.Carbontaxesareseenasmore appropriate for South Africa than a cap-and-trade (emissions trading)system(NationalTreasury,2013).Taxesaremostlikelyto beaccompaniedbythepossibilityforfirmstopurchaseoffsetsto reduce their carbon tax liability (National Treasury, 2014).
AccordingtotheCarbonOffsetsPaper(2014),acarbonoffsetsis definedasa ‘‘measurableavoidance,reductionorsequestrationof carbondioxide (CO2) orother GHG emissions’’. Measures against otherairpollutantsarenotincludedaspossibleoffsetcandidates (NationalTreasury,2014).
TheprinciplesofSouthAfrica’sclimatechangeresponseinclude the common, but differentiated, responsibilities and respective capabilities,equity,andupliftingofthepoorandvulnerable,which indicatesthatresponsestoclimatechangehavetobeinlinewith thebroadaimsofpovertyalleviation(SouthAfricanGovernment, 2011). The LTMS report mentions possible negative effects for poorer households, and effects on air pollution are partially considered.Itdiscusesboththedisproportionateimpactofclimate changeonpoorerhouseholdsandconsidersclimatechangeeffects on future ambientairpollution levels(EnergyResearchCentre, 2007).Moreover,thereportaddressesthepositiveimpactonlocal airqualitythatmaybeassociatedwiththeincreaseduseofelectric vehicles(Hughesetal.,2007).
Likewise,theClimateChangeResponseWhitePaperacknowl- edges that other factors, such as socio-economic development indicators, international competitiveness, the costs to poor households,andchallengestomitigatepovertyhavetobetaken intoaccount,andincludessectionsthatdiscusstherelationship betweenclimatechangeandlocalairquality.Thereportwarnsof an anticipated increaseof stagnantair episodesdue toclimate change,whichcanleadtoepisodesofsevereairpollutionincities.
However,thereisnolinktoanincreaseduseofsolidfuelsinthe domesticsector.Thisdocumentstates,regardingthereductionof ambientparticulatematter,ozoneandsulphurdioxide,that‘‘useof legislative and other measures that also have the co-benefit of reducing GHG emissions will be prioritised’’ (point 5.4.1.). Also mentioned are newly implemented air quality regulations that
7ItwasconductedbytheDepartmentofEnvironmentalAffairsandTourism andundertakenbytheEnergyResearchCentre(ERC)atUniversityofCapeTown.
See the documents under http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/Research/publications/
07Scenario_team-LTMS_Scenarios.pdf(accessed10.11.2015).
require reporting of GHG emission reductions in pollution prevention plans. In this context, it is also written that the
‘‘synergy betweenprevention measures toreduce conventional air pollutantsandGHGmitigationwillbeusedinaholisticapproachto manageairquality.’’(point10.6)
Greater-than-inflationrateincreasesinelectricitypricesare expected to continue if climate change mitigation policies are implemented (Department of Energy, 2013), especially in the case of the introduction of a carbon tax (South African Government, 2011). Therefore, the implementation of carbon taxeswillbesupportedbymeasuressuchasfreebasicelectricity, which aim to provide poor and low-income householdswith electricity.Thequantumoffreeelectricityiscurrently(2015)set at 50kWh per month in most municipalities, an amount sufficientforbasiclighting,entertainmentandcommunication, but inadequate for cooking and heating, so this subsidy contributes little to mitigating local air quality issues from combustion of fuels (Madubansi andShackleton, 2007; OECD, 2012). The introduction of carbon taxes is controversial. The effectivenessofacarbontaxisdependentontheleveloftaxation.
Itisseen,asasinglemeasure–attheplannedleveloftaxation– asaninsufficientincentivetouserstoinitiateswitchestoother technologies.(DepartmentofEnergy,2013)
Thelinkbetweenclimatechangeandairpollutionisrecognised inSouthAfricanpolicydocumentsonclimatechange.However, theconsequences ofclimatechangemitigationmeasuresonair qualityarefrequentlynotaddressedinanintegratedway.Itisonly throughtheevolutionanduseofintegratedassessmenttoolsthat such serious policy gaps or potential policy clashes may be avoided,andpotentialforco-benefitscanbeexploited.Measures thattacklelocalairpollutionaswellasGHGemissionsshouldbe prioritised.However,thestatementsareofgeneralnatureanddo not include specific measures on how these tasks are to be implemented.Thefollowingsectionaddressestheneedsofsuchan integratedassessment.
5. Policiestoaddresslocalairpollution
Strategiestominimiseemissionsduetotheuseofsolidfuelsin the domestic sector include the Integrated Household Clean Energy Strategy (ICHES) (Department of Minerals and Energy, 2004),theNationalLiquefiedPetroleumGasStrategy(Department ofEnergy,2011),theBasanjengoMagogocampaign(acampaignto changeuserbehaviourinthemethodofignitingsolidfuelstoves) (LeRouxetal.,2009),andtheLow-SmokeFuelProgrammethat wasinitiatedbytheformerDepartmentofMineralsandEnergy.
Nationalstandardsforstovedesignexist8,butarenoteffectively enforced.
Anothermeasurethataffectstheavailabilityofelectricity– and thus air emissions – is the electrification of households (IntegratedNationalElectrificationProgramme—INEP).However, it should be taken into account that electrification does not necessarily lead to a switch from solid fuels to electricity (Matinga, 2010; Madubansi and Shackleton, 2006). Electricity pricesmightimpacttheuseofelectricity,butthetopiciscomplex andthesocialdimensionneedstobeconsidered(Madubansiand Shackleton,2007).
6. Interimconclusionsfromthepolicyreview
SouthAfricahasimplementeddiversepoliciesandlawstodeal withairpollutionandclimatechange.However,SouthAfricafaces
problems in implementing the prerequisitesand requirements.
Complianceandenforcementareconsideredweak(Craigieetal., 2009a).Thefragmentationofgovernmentalinstitutionsisseenas one of the major challenges in the field of environmental protection in South Africa(Craigie et al., 2009b; Kotze´, 2009).
Thenumberofinstitutionsinvolvedislarge,andcreatesproblems forboththeenforcementofexistinglawsandtheconsistencyof different polices. Competencies in the field of environmental protection and climate change are split between different governmentalbodiesonthesamelevel,andalsobetweennational, provincial and local government levels. The status of the DepartmentofEnvironmentalAffairsinthecabinethierarchyis relativelylowandcertainenvironmentalresponsibilitiesaregiven toothermoreseniorministrieswithdifferentprioritiese.g.the DepartmentsofMineralResources,ortheDepartmentofEnergy (Leiman,2014).
Preliminary results based on the previous findings can be summarisedasfollows:
a.In the context of international conventions, South Africa is considered a developing country and currently faces less pressuretocontributetopressingglobalenvironmentalissues, buthascommitteditselftoambitiousmeasuresagainstglobal warming.
b.ClimateChange isnot amain priorityin theoverall national plan.Povertyeradication,jobcreationandeducationarethetop priorities.
c.South African environmental law acknowledges that the eradicationofpovertyisaprioritytaskofSouthAfricanpolicy.
As environmental degradation and global warming affect mostly those socio-economic sectors that have the least capacitytoadapt,environmentalprotectionandclimatechange mitigationarenotcontradictory,buthavetobeimplementedin waysthataddressbothissuessimultaneously.
d.Theconstitutionalrighttoadecentenvironmentrequiresaction to mitigate local air pollution. Climate change mitigation strategiesthereforehavetotake intoaccounttheireffectson local(indoor)airpollution.
e.South Africa’s policy papers on climate change mitigation indicate that South Africa expects developed countries to contributefinanciallytothenationalreductionofGHG.
f.Themostimportantpolicypaperonclimatechangemitigation, theClimateChangeResponseWhitePaper,is verybroad and includesvarioustopics.Strategicprioritiesareset,butconcrete measures are not formulated. The link between ambient air pollutionandGHGemissionsisaddressed,butthedocument lacksmeasuresandgoalsinthiscontext.Measurestomitigate localairpollutionarenotexpresslystipulated.
g.Measurestolowerlocalairpollutionlevelsduetotheuseof solidfuelsarenotlinkedwithclimatechangepolicies.
h.The introduction of carbon taxes is seen as an appropriate measuretoinducebehaviouralchangetowardsreducingcarbon emissions,but scepticism existsas towhether the proposed levels willhave any effect on changing fuel choices, and by increasing electricity prices, unintentionally drive users to returntouseoflocallypollutingsolidfueluse.
i.The existence of coherent legislation and policies does not alwaysguarantee theapplication,as enforcementis weak in SouthAfricaandinstitutionalcapacityislimited.
7. Contradictions
Upuntil2004,climatechangeandairpollutionweretwotopics thatweredealtwithseparatelyinSouthAfricanpolicy.Thelink betweenclimatechangeandairpollutionwasfirstemphasisedin
8Compulsoryspecificationfornon-pressureparaffinstovesandheaters(2006).
TheCompulsoryspecificationforcoal-burningstovesandheatersforuseina dwelling(1982)hasbeenwithdrawnin2014.
officialpolicydocumentsintheClimateChangeResponseStrategy (2004)9.Aninformationhandlingsystemwasintroducedasafirst efforttoincorporateGHGemissionsin airqualitylegislation.In recentyears,lawsandpolicypapersinthefieldofairpollutionand climatechangerefertoeachother.However,themeasurestakenin thefieldofclimatechangeandairpollutionarestillnotentirely coherent.
Fig.2showstheinterrelationsbetweenairqualitylegislation andpoliciesandclimatechangemitigationpolicies.Itshowsthat linksbetweenclimatechangepoliciesandairqualitymanagement existbutlocalairpollutionismorerelatedwithpovertyalleviation andnotdirectlyaddressedinclimatemitigationpolicies.
The focusoftheNDPis socialquestions,includingaccess to electricity (Fig. 2). Climate change is targeted under the NDP, however,linkagesbetweenclimatechangeandotherissuessuch aspovertyeradication orair pollutionorare notaddressed.By puttingpriorityonheathrelatedissues,anindirectlinktoindoor andlocalairpollutioncanbedrawn(greyarrow).TheWhitePaper targetsairquality,butnotinacomprehensivewayregardingthe consequencesof climatechangemitigationmeasures on (espe- cially indoor) air pollution. Linkages to climate change are recognisedin certainair qualityacts.Detailson theair quality legislationcanbefoundintheSupplementarymaterial.
Many proposed airpollution andGHGmitigations strategies willmostlikelyleadtohigherenergyprices,resultinginpolicy contradictions.TheintroductionofMinimumEmissionStandards andtheneedforinvestmentstocomplywiththesestandardsis expectedtoresultinaboveinflationincreasesinelectricityprices.
Likewise,theintroductionofacarbontaxwillleadtoincreased electricityprices.Thepolicycontradictionsofcurrentpoliciesarise fromtheprobablenegativeeffectsofthesepriceincreasesonlocal airpollution.Increasedelectricitypriceswillleadtoaswitchaway fromclean(er)fuelstolessexpensiveandmorepollutingsolidfuels forthepoorereconomicstrata,certainlyforcookingandheating (OECD,2012),andresultantloweredqualityoflife.Indirecteffects ofincreasedhouseholdairpollutionincludeadversehealtheffects and increased absenteeism, thereby increasing societal costs of
medical care and reduced productivity. Increases in electricity pricesforGHGmitigationreasons,wouldhaveadisproportionate impactonthelowestsocio-economiccommunities,whichindirect contradictiontotheprimarynationalpolicyaims.
The discussions concerning the planned introduction of a carbontaxareaccompaniedbyattemptstolowertheimpactson poorer households. One option mentioned is to redistribute incomegeneratedbycarbontaxesintheformofwelfaretransfers.
Inthiscase,thesetransferswouldbeusedtolowerenergyprices forlow-incomehouseholds,andashifttowardsthedomesticuse offossilfuelscouldbeprevented.However,thisisincontradiction torecentfiscalpolicytosimplifynationaltaxcodesandcollection andalsoaffectsthecostofdoingbusinessinSouthAfrica—againan unintended outcome in contradiction to the primary aims of (productive)jobcreationandpovertyalleviation.
LocalairpollutiondamagesareconsideredintheWhitePaper (SouthAfricanGovernment,2011)asexternalitiesoftheenergy sector.Healtheffectsfromfuelswitchingduetoincreasingprices inthedomesticsectorarenotconsideredintheWhitePaper.
Tensionsexistbetweeninvestmentsincontrolofpollution(e.g.
desulphurisation) and investmentin alternative energy sources (renewables,cleanfuelsinthedomesticsector,offsetsintheform of passive energy building technologies, even in the state- subsidised housing sector) (Henneman et al., 2016). Given the advancedstateofimplementationofprovisionsoftheAirQuality Act through enforcement of Minimum EmissionLimits, imple- mentation of control technologies on the largest emitters is foreseen.Otherapproaches,suchasairqualityoffsetschemes(and onlywithinthesamegeographicareas)aimedatoptimisingnet humanexposure,mayprovidemorebenefitsthantheMinimum EmissionStandards.
Air quality as a health concern due ‘‘to inhalation of high particulate matter (PM2.5, PM10) levels from domestic coal combustion’’seemstohavelowpriorityincomparisonwithother majorpublichealthissuessuchasHIVandtuberculosis(National Planning Commission, 2013). It has to be mentioned that tuberculosis,amajorepidemicdiseaseprevalentamongtheSouth Fig.1.The‘‘Peak,PlateauandDecline’’greenhousegasemissionstrajectory101.
Africanpoor,isaggravatedbylocalairpollution(Jassaletal.,2013).
Therefore,airqualitymeasuresespeciallyonthelocallevelhaveto beconsideredwithinpoliciesthattargetotherhealthrelatedissues.
Contradictionsexistnotonlybetweenclimatechangemitiga- tion actions, but include other dimensions, such as access to electricity and poverty alleviation. Power generation in South Africais connectedwithregionalair pollutiondue tocoal-fired powerstationsandthereforehassignificanthealthimplications (Spalding-FecherandMatibe,2003).Theneedtoelectrifypoorer households might lead to a higher electricity demand. The discussion includes an overview of the legal framework, with specialattentionpaidtohowthedifferentpoliciesinteractwith eachother.However,arecentstudyshowsthatelectrificationof poor households for their basic needs does not significantly influencetheoverallGHGemissions(TaitandWinkler,2012).They foundthatoverallelectricityconsumptioninthelowestincome bands contributes less than 1% to the total national energy demand,and hence a shift in balance between energy carriers wouldchangetheoverallGHGemissionsbylessthan1%(Taitand Winkler,2012).
8. Co-benefits
GHG mitigation policies and air quality measures can have synergiesand createco-benefits(Bollenet al.,2010; McCollum et al., 2013; Rao et al., 2013). There is a need to identify opportunities for co-benefits in air quality management and climatechangemitigation(Naikeretal.,2012).Co-benefitsmight bethereductionoflocalairpollutantsandassociatedcontrolcosts duetothecontrollingofGHGemissions.PoliciesthattargetGHG emissionsusuallyleadalsotoareductionoflocalairpollutants suchasSO2orNOx(Rafajetal.,2013).Anyincreaseininvestments inrenewableenergysourceswillbeaccompaniedwithreduced
investments and operating costs in abatement technologies.
Developing public transport or the usage of cleaner (electric powered) vehicles will lead to less emissions from transport, improved air quality, improved quality of health and reduced public health costs. Thambiran and Diab (2011a) found the reductionoftravelswithprivatelyownedmotorvehiclesandthe improvingtheefficiencyoffreighttransportonroadstohavegreat potentialforco-benefitsinDurban,SouthAfrica.Inassessingco- benefitsithastobetakenintoaccountthatGHGmitigationcan alsohaveadverseeffects(trade-offs)onairquality,becauseof,for example,increasingozoneexposureduetoahighershareoffuel- efficientdieselvehicles,orincreasingexposuretoparticulatesdue toalargeruseofwoodenbiomassfuels(VonSchneidemesserand Monks,2013).
Fig.3showstheco-benefitsofascenarioofGHGmitigation measuresthatwouldleadtoSouthAfrica’scontributiontothe global28CgoalasdefinedintheInternationalEnergyAgency’s 2012 report (IEA,2012).Theproposed climatechange mitiga- tion measures wouldalso leadto a decrease in airpollutants suchasSO2,NOxandtoalesserextentPM2,5(Hennemanetal., 2016).
Fig.2.Interrelationbetweenairqualitylegislationandclimatechangemitigationpolicies.Rectanglesrepresentcurrentlegislationorpolicies.Arrowsofdifferentsizes representlinkstopolicies,andthestrengthofthelinkisshownbythethicknessofthearrow.
Fig.3.EffectsofSouthAfrica’scontributiontotheGlobal28CScenarioonthe emissionsofairpollutants(seeHennemanetal.,2016).
10http://www.climateaction.org.za/cop17-cmp7/
sa-government-position-on-climate-change(accessed10.11.2015).
9https://unfccc.int/files/meetings/seminar/application/pdf/
sem_sup3_south_africa.pdf(accessed10.11.2015).
Benefitsofclimatechangemitigationpolicescanalsocreate benefits in other sectors. Climate change mitigation policies could create newjobs. Policy optionssuch as the increase in renewablescan createlocal employment (Walwyn andBrent, 2015). Small positive employment effects are expected from systematic programmes of energy efficiency implementation (EnergyResearchCentre,2007).
9. Resolution—Assessingconsequencesofclimatechange mitigationpolicies
To resolve the contradictions inherent in South Africa’s air quality legislation and climate change mitigation policies, an integrationofpoliciesisneeded.Furthermore,themeasurestaken havetobeinlinewiththenationalpolicygoals.Resolutionshave toensure no further disadvantage, direct or indirect, to lower socio-economicsectors.Theyhavetobepracticalandacceptableto thevoting public.Povertyalleviation,asa maintargetofSouth Africa’spolicygoals,isnotonlyconnectedwiththelackofmoney, butalsowiththelackofaccesstosafe,affordablemodernenergy carriersandexposuretopoorlivingconditions.Thegovernment hastheresponsibilitytosafeguardthehealthandwellbeingofits citizens.Bulkinfrastructurehastobebuiltinordertofacilitate economic development, but the choices need to be made by optimisingtheoverallsocietalbenefitsofinvestments,specifically taking into account the co-benefits of climate change and air quality strategies. Thesechallenges need tobe reconciled with SouthAfrica’sclimatechangeaspirations,andcommitmentsatthe internationallevel.
For example, as an alternative to major investments in retrofitting pollution abatement technologies to decades-old power plantsthat are approaching theend oftheir design life, thepossibilityofindirectoffsetsthroughinvestmentintechnolo- gies for reduction of household air pollution (in the same geographicalarea)hasbeenproposedasamajorDepartmentof Environmental Affairs policy intervention (DEA, 2015). An evaluation of such possibilities would need to be based on scientificevidence;acost-benefitsanalysis,includingexternality factors,wouldbenecessary.
Sometrade-offscanbeavoidedifthepoliciesareaccompanied byspecificmeasures.Inthecaseofcarbontaxes,thedisadvantages forlow-incomehouseholdsduetohigherelectricitypricescould beoffsetbytransferpayments,assuggestedintheLTMS.Itshould bekept in mind that this kindof redistribution would involve administrativecosts, and is connected with social problems of stigmatisationofthepoor(Ruiters,2008).
General measures that are necessary to enforce the pre- requisites promulgated in Acts and policy papers have to be taken.Theharmonisationofinstitutionalactionisnecessary.This could be achieved, for instance, by placing the issues on the agendas of the appropriate inter-departmental ministerial clusters to strengthen cooperation between different depart- ments.Anyapproachestakenhavetobedevelopedwhilekeeping inmindthatinstitutionalcapacityinSouthAfricaislimitedand anyadditionaladministrativeburdenhastobekeptaslowas possible.
Furthermore, singular measures are insufficient to address challengesassociatedwithairpollutionandclimatechange.Both issuesneedtobeaddressedsimultaneouslythroughintegrationof related policies, while avoiding unintended and unwanted consequences(ThambiranandDiab,2011b;OECD,2012).Climate change mitigation and air pollution policies need to have coherencewithexternalfactorsdictatedbytheprevailingpolitical, economic and social milieu in South Africa. The centralpolicy pillars of the current government are employment creation, poverty alleviation and service delivery. Examples of such
constraints are: implementing renewable energy technologies shouldrequirealargecomponentoflocalcontentmanufacture (jobcreation);proposedcarbontaxesshould notaffect afford- abilityofelectricitytothelowereconomicstrata(socialequity);
andmajorinfrastructureinterventionsshouldbeaffordableand cost effective within the national infrastructure planning, supportedbyevidence-basedargument.Forexample,apossible outcomemaybeindirectsocialandenvironmentaloffsetsthat create higher benefits for the public—calculated in disability adjustedlifeyears(DALY).DALYsareusedtoestimatetheburden of disease and take into account human wellbeing (Murray, 1994).TheuseofDALYsinrecentyearsrecognisestheneedto estimatethehealtheffectsofenvironmentalpollutantsinanon- monetisedway(Gaoetal.,2015).However,limitationsexistin countries such as South Africa, where data for incidence and prevalenceofdiseasesarescarce.Hospitalandclinicalrecordsin thepublicsectorhavenotbeenwellmaintainedinSouthAfrica over the past twenty years. Good health data only exists for the upper income groups through private medical insurance schemes.
Toolsthatarecapableofprovidingnecessaryinformationare modelsthattakeintoaccountthedifferentaspectsinacommon framework and fulfil the given criteria. One option is the GreenhouseGasandAirpollutionInteractionandSynergies(GAINS) Modelthathasalreadysuccessfullybeenusedasapolicysupport toolinEuropeandAsia.(Amannetal.,2011)Itisanintegrated assessmentmodelthathas beendeveloped by IIASA(Interna- tionalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis).TheGAINSmodel links GHG and air pollution, and aims to support informed decision making that maximise synergies between different measures(co-benefits),andaccountsfor societalbenefits/costs through calculating DALYs. GAINS can optimise on minimum costs, lowestair emissions,or lowestDALYs (health impacts).
While the model does have limitations, the GAINS modelling frameworkhasbeenprovedtobeabletocomplywithmostofthe criteria outlined above. Further details are provided in the followingliterature:HordijkandAmann(2007),Raoetal.(2013), Reisetal.(2012).
SouthAfricacurrentlyiscoveredbytheGAINSGlobalmodel.
However,thisgeneralisedimplementationisnotasevolvedasthe Europeanregionalmodel.TheGlobalmodel,forexample,doesnot allowforquantificationofimpactsonhealth,cropsorecosystems inSouthAfrica.Toachievethefullfunctionalitythemodelhastobe complemented with the appropriate dispersion modelling tool (using the regional emission transfer coefficients and source- receptor matrix), which would compute concentration and deposition of polluting substances. Recently, a first co-benefit analysisforSouthAfricausingtheGAINSframeworkhasbeendone byHennemanetal.(2016).Abaselinescenario,controlscenarios andactivityscenarioswereimplementedtoshowtheeffects of differentpolicyapproachestomitigateclimatechangeandreduce air pollution and their costs. It is shown that climate change mitigationcaninducesynergiesinreducingairpollutantsatthe sametime(Fig.3).
AfullimplementationofGAINSorasimilarintegrateddecision supportmodelinSouthAfricawouldassistSouthAfricainGHG andair qualitypoliciesandstrategies. Afullimplementation of GAINS wouldprovideconsiderableimpetustorelaxthecurrent politicalandeconomictensionsinSouthAfricabetweenabroad support for the need for positive steps to mitigate climate- damagingGHGs,andtheinabilitytorationalisethecostofsuch measures in terms of near-term environmental and economic imperatives.TheimplementationofGAINSinSouthAfricacould also be a starting point for an implementation in the whole southern African region, and provide knowledge for other developingregions.
Acknowledgements
Thepaper waspart of theworkconducted in theSouthern African—YoungScientistsSummerProgramme(SA-YSSP)2014/15 that was organised by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the National Research Fund (South Africa),theDepartment ofScienceand Technology,Republicof South Africa (South Africa) and the University of Free State, Bloemfontein,SouthAfrica.Theauthorswouldliketothankthe anonymousreviewersfor theirvaluable commentsand sugges- tionstoimprovethepaper.
AppendixA. Supplementarydata
Supplementarydataassociatedwiththisarticlecanbefound,in theonlineversion, athttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2015.12.
001
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