The Impact of Interstate Conflict on Revolutionary Change and Individual Freedom

P 92-308

The Impact of Interstate Conflict on Revolutionary Change

and Individual Freedom

by Erich Weede

Publication Series o f the International Relations Research Group Reichpietschufer 50

D 1000 Berlin 30

This paper was presented at the 4th World Peace Science Congress at Erasmus University,

Rotterdam, May 18,1992, and at the Inaugural Pan-European Conference o f the ECPR standing

group on international relations at Heidelberg, September 16-20, 1992. It was produced with

the support o f Wolf-Dieter Eberwein and the Science Center Berlin. The author also benefitted

from his collaboration with Edward N. Muller (Tucson, Arizona) in a project on violence,

rebellion, and revolution supported by travel grants from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

or centuries, as the ‘industrial’ revolution or the rise o f the W est did. Sometimes, it is a matter o f a few years, as in the great French or Russian revolutions. W ithin economic history and historical sociology both types o f revolutionary change are rarely considered together. A literature review reveals that there is considerable (though not perfect) agreement within each o f the branches. Those who analyze structural changes in economies tend to argue that interstate conflict curtails the power o f rulers, contributes to safe property rights and individual freedom, and ultimately to economic development. Those who analyze violent revolutions tend to argue that interstate conflict puts a heavy burden on less advanced states which compete with more advanced states, that regime collapse in such situations often produces revolutionary governments which ruthlessly build strong states without much consideration o f human costs. Whether or not international conflict promotes freedom seems to depend on the degree o f foreign pressure, on the collapse of domestic regimes as well as on the role o f intellectuals.

ZUSAMMENFASSUNG

Revolutionärer Wandel bedeutet Strukturwandel. Manchmal erstreckt sich diese Art von Wandel über Jahrzehnte, wenn nicht sogar Jahrhunderte, wie im Falle des

‘ industriellen’ Revolution oder des Aufstiegs des Westens. Manchmal erfolgt dieser W andel innerhalb weniger Jahre, wie etwa bei der großen französischen bzw.

russischen Revolution. In der Wirtschaftsgeschichte und in der historischen Soziologie werden diese beiden Formen des revolutionären Wandels selten gleichzeitig betrachtet. Die Literaturübersicht belegt große (wenn auch nicht völlige) Übereinstimmung innerhalb der beiden Zweige. Diejenigen, die wirtschaftlichen Strukturwandel analysieren, neigen der Ansicht zu, daß zwischenstaatlicher Konflikt die Macht der Herrschenden einschränkt, zu sicheren Eigentumsrechten und persönlicher Freiheit und damit letztlich zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung beiträgt.

Diejenigen, die gewaltsame Revolutionen analysieren, neigen der Ansicht zu, daß

zwischenstaatliche Konflikte die weniger entwickelten Staaten, die mit

entwickelteren im Wettbewerb stehen, stark belasten, daß der Zusammenbruch der

Regime unter diesen Bedingungen häufig revolutionäre Regierungen hervorbringt,

die ohne Rücksicht auf die menschlichen Kosten einen starken Staat aufbauen. Ob

internationaler Konflikt Freiheit fördert, scheint vom Grad ausländischen Drucks,

vom Zusammenbruch der Regime und von der Rolle der Intellektuellen abhängig

zu sein.

1. I n t r o d u c t i o n

S o c ia l s c i e n t i s t s d is a g r e e w it h each o th e r a b o u t th e m eaning o f th e term s

r e v o l u t i o n o r r e v o l u t i o n a r y change. L aq u eu r (1 9 6 8 , p . 501) o f f e r s a v e r y b ro a d v ie w : " R e v o lu t io n i n i t s m ost common sense i s an a tte m p t to make a r a d i c a l change i n th e syste m o f g o v e rn m e n t. T h is o f t e n in v o lv e s th e in f r in g e m e n t o f p r e ­ v a i l i n g c o n s t i t u t i o n a l a rra n g e m e n ts and th e use o f f o r c e . 'R e v o lu t i o n ' may a ls o mean any fu n d a m e n ta lly new d e ve lo p m e n t in th e economy, c u l t u r e , o r s o c ia l f a b r i c . . . "

I n t h i s u n d e r s ta n d in g , r e v o l u t i o n i s d e fin e d by s t r u c t u r a l change, n o t by v io le n c e o r th e use o f f o r c e w h ic h o c c u rs m e re ly ' o f t e n ' i n r e v o lu t io n a r y changes. H u n tin g to n

(1 9 6 8 , p . 264) p r o v id e s a d i f f e r e n t d e f i n i t i o n : "A r e v o l u t i o n i s a r a p id , fu n d a m e n ta l, and v i o l e n t d o m e s tic change i n d o m in a n t v a lu e s and m yths o f s o c ie t y , i n i t s p o l i t i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n s , s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e , le a d e r s h ip , and gove rn m e n t a c t i v i t y and p o l i c i e s . "

H e re , a r e v o l u t i o n i s d e fin e d by s t r u c t u r a l change and by th e use o f v io le n c e . W h ile H u n tin g to n and L a q u e u r a t le a s t a g re e t h a t mere coups d ' e t a t a re n o t re v o ­

l u t i o n s , T u llo c k (1 9 7 4 ) seems to re g a rd coups as th e m ost f r e q u e n t k in d o f r e v o lu ­ t i o n and s t r u c t u r a l change as a r a r e b y p r o d u c t. T i l l y (1 9 7 8 , p . 190) p ro p o se s to d i s t i n g u i s h betw een r e v o l u t i o n a r y s i t u a t i o n s and r e v o lu t io n a r y o u tco m e s, where r e v o l u t i o n a r y s i t u a t i o n s a re d e fin e d by m u l t i p l e s o v e r e ig n t y , i . e . , by a s p e c i f i c k in d o f s t r u g g le f o r p o l i t i c a l power b u t n o t by outcom es such as d is p la c e m e n t o f p o w e r- h o ld e rs o r s t r u c t u r a l change. These f o u r a u th o r s s h o u ld s u f f i c e to d e m o n s tra te th e d e p th o f th e c o n c e p tu a l d is a g re e m e n t among s o c ia l s c i e n t i s t s .

The d e f i n i t i o n to p ic k o r to s u g g e s t depends on o n e 's e x p la n a to r y i n t e r e s t s and t h e o r e t i c a l p e r s p e c t iv e . F or th e p u rp o se s o f t h i s p a p e r, L aqueur (1 9 6 8 ) p r o v id e s th e b e s t s t a r t i n g p o i n t , because he a d m its th e p o s s i b i l i t y o f s t r u c t u r a l change w it h o u t w id e s p re a d v io le n c e and use o f f o r c e , l i k e th e ' i n d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n ' , as w e l l as s t r u c t u r a l change by o r a f t e r much v io le n c e o r use o f f o r c e , as i n the g r e a t r e v o lu t io n s i n F rance (1 7 8 9 ), R u s s ia (1 9 1 7 ), o r C hina ( 1 9 4 9 ). The m ain dependent v a r ia b l e s o f t h i s p a p e r a re s t r u c t u r a l change and i n d i v i d u a l fre e d o m . H e re , e x t r a ­ o r d in a r y s t r u c t u r a l change i s r e f e r e d to as r e v o lu t io n a r y change. The t r a n s f o r m a t io n o f s o c i e t i e s b y econom ic g ro w th i s no le s s r e v o lu t io n a r y th a n th e r e s u l t s o f r e b e l­

l i o n and v io le n c e a re i n th e F re n c h , R u s s ia n , and C hinese c a s e s . I f one compares c o u n t r ie s w h ic h b o th p a r t i c i p a t e d i n 't h e European m ir a c l e ' (Jo n es 1981) o r th e i n ­ d u s t r i a l r e v o l u t i o n , b u t w h ic h d i f f e r i n t h e i r e x p e rie n c e o f a p o l i t i c a l r e v o l u t i o n - ta k e F ra n ce and th e N e th e r la n d s , f o r exam ple - th e n i t seems t h a t econom ic r e v o lu ­ t io n s have even s t r o n g e r s t r u c t u r a l e f f e c t s th a n mere p o l i t i c a l r e v o lu t io n s d e s p ite th e dram a, v io le n c e and b lo o d o f th e l a t t e r .

I t i s th e p u rp o s e o f t h i s p a p e r to a rg ue t h a t b o th ty p e s o f r e v o lu t io n a r y change, th e c o m p a r a tiv e ly f a s t and v i o l e n t p o l i t i c a l r e v o lu t io n s as w e l l as th e c o m p a r a tiv e ly s lo w and p e a c e fu l ty p e s o f r e v o lu t io n a r y change, a re s t r o n g ly embedded i n and

a f f e c t e d by i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t s . B oth ty p e s o f r e v o lu t io n s a re shaped b y i n t e r ­

s t a t e c o n f l i c t s f o r th e same re a s o n : I n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t a f f e c t s th e d o m e s tic b a la n c e o f pow er b etw een c la s s e s , e t h n ic o r i n t e r e s t g ro u p s . The p u z z le t o be d e a lt w it h i n t h i s p a p e r ( b u t c e r t a i n l y n o t s o lv e d ) i s t h a t i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t som etim es has a p o s i t i v e im p a c t on i n d i v i d u a l fre e d o m and m a t e r ia l w e ll- b e in g and som etim es has a d e v a s t a t in g im p a c t on fre e d o m and w e ll- b e in g , d e p e n d in g on th e k in d o f r e v o l u t i o n ­ a r y change i t p ro m o te s , w h e th e r b lo o d y and v i o l e n t o r n o t .

2. I n t e r s t a t e C o n f l i c t , th e S e c u r ity Dilemma and th e Empowerment o f Common Men^ i n S i l e n t R e v o lu tio n s

Where th e r e i s an i n t e r s t a t e system , where s t a t e s c la im u lt im a t e s o v e r e ig n ty and r e c o g n iz e no common and s u p e r io r a u t h o r i t y , where th e y a re c a p a b le o f w a r-m a k in g a g a in s t each o t h e r , th e re i s a s e c u r i t y dilem m a (H erz 1 9 5 0 ).

There i s no a l t e r n a t i v e to s e l f - h e l p (W a ltz 1 9 7 9 ). R u le rs p e r c e iv e th e need to p r e v a i l i n w a r. They may even p e r c e iv e th e need to expand i n o r d e r to im p ro v e t h e i r p r o s p e c ts to s u r v iv e f u t u r e w a rs . A t le a s t f o r m a jo r u n i t s i n some i n t e r ­ s t a t e s y s te m s , th e r e a re in c e n t iv e s to a tte m p t to g a in 's e c u r i t y by s u p e r i o r i t y ' o r 'p e a c e b y s t r e n g t h ' . O b v io u s ly , such a p o l i c y m ust be s e l f - d e f e a t i n g f o r most p o l i t i c a l u n i t s . C o n c e iv a b ly , i t i s s e l f - d e f e a t i n g f o r a l l s ta te s i n th e v e r y lo n g r u n . T h is i s n o t th e t o p ic o f t h i s p a p e r. F o r my p u rp o se s i t i s s u f f i c i e n t to n o t ic e th e w a r-p ro n e n e s s o f i n t e r s t a t e system s and th e d i f f i c u l t y o f p e a c e f u lly o v e rc o m in g s e c u r i t y d ile m m a s . O th e rw is e , th e w r i t t e n h i s t o r y o f m ankind w o u ld n o t l a r g e l y c o n s i s t o f a h i s t o r y o f w a rs .

I f s t a t e s a re w a r - p r o n e , th e n r u le r s depend on th e w i l l i n g c o o p e r a tio n o f w a r r io r s M i l i t a r y te c h n o lo g y w i l l d e c id e , w h e th e r r u l e r s need a few e l i t e w a r r io r s o r

masses o f common men. S in c e th e s u b ju g a tio n o f armed men i s alw a ys more d i f f i c u l t , more d a n g e ro u s , and more c o s t l y th e n th e s u b ju g a tio n o f unarmed and d e fe n c e le s s p e rs o n s , w a r r i o r s t a t u s te n d s to g e n e ra te p o l i t i c a l r i g h t s . M c N e ill (1 9 8 2 , p . 11) d e s c r ib e s such a s i t u a t i o n i n th e M id d le E a s t i n th e e a r ly p a r t o f th e second m ille n iu m B. C. : " . . . a s m a ll e l i t e o f c h a r io t w a r r i o r s e x e r c is e d d e c is iv e m i l i t a r y f o r c e and s h a re d th e p o l i t i c a l e x e r c is e o f s o v e r e ig n ty w it h w a r lo r d s whose commands w ere e f f e c t i v e o n ly when a m a j o r i t y o f th e c h a r io t- o w in g c la s s c o n c u r r e d . " S in c e c h a r io t s were e x tr e m ly e x p e n s iv e m i l i t a r y equipm ent by th e s ta n d a rd s o f th e t im e , s in c e o n ly v e r y r i c h men c o u ld a f f o r d a c h a r io t and th e h o rs e s t o p u l l i t , p o l i t i c a l r i g h t s c o u ld be r e s t r i c t e d to a s m a ll 'a r i s t o c r a c y '

- 3 -

o f w a r r i o r s . The s u b ju g a tio n and e x p l o i t a t i o n o f p e a s a n ts by w a r r i o r s and lo r d s was ’ s a fe ’ .

S in c e a b o u t 1200 B .C . i r o n r e p la c e d b ro n ze i n th e M id d le E a s t. I r o n was much c h e a p e r th a n b ro n z e . More men c o u ld a f f o r d e f f e c t i v e weapons made o u t o f i r o n th a n b e f o r e . C o h e re n t and r e l a t i v e l y e g a l i t a r i a n t r i b e s a t th e edge o f th e r i v e r p l a i n s and o f c i v i l i z a t i o n c o u ld e q u ip th e m s e lv e s w i t h th e s e w eapons. W idespread o w n e rs h ip o f weapons r e in f o r c e d e g a lit a r ia n is m w i t h i n th e s e t r i b e s , some o f w h ic h succeeded i n f i r s t o v e r r u n n in g and t h e r e a f t e r r u l i n g th e c i v i l i z e d p l a i n s .

Somewhat l a t e r i n a n c ie n t G reece a new m i l i t a r y t a c t i c tra n s fo rm e d th e b a t t l e ­ f i e l d and th e s o c ie t y . H e a v ily armed and arm oured in fa n tr y m e n , th e h o p l i t e s , o u tp e r fo rm e d th e horsem en on th e b a t t l e - f i e l d . M c N e ill (1 9 6 3 , p p . 1 9 8 /2 0 0 ) a s c r ib e s n o th in g le s s th a n an e g a l i t a r i a n e f f e c t to t h i s m i l i t a r y r e v o l u t i o n :

"T he u lt im a t e b a s is o f a r i s t o c r a t i c p rim a c y was, o f c o u r s e , removed when th e f a r m e r - h o p li t e became th e d e c is iv e f a c t o r on th e b a t t l e - f i e l d . . . I n th e ra n k s each man was th e e q u a l o f h is f e l l o w s . . . The p h a la n x , t h e r e f o r e , was th e s c h o o l w h ic h made th e G reek p o l i s . . . . i t g r e a t l y b roadened th e c la s s o f c i t i z e n s who

to o k an a c t i v e p a r t i n p o l i s a f f a i r s , f o r th e h o p l i t e s who d e fe nd e d t h e i r c i t y on th e b a t t l e - f i e l d c o u ld s c a r c e ly be e x c lu d e d fro m p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n c i v i l a f f a i r s . "

P o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n m ost G reek c i t y - s t a t e s was e x tr e m e ly r e s t r i c t e d , b u t n o t e q u a lly r e s t r i c t e d e v e ry w h e re . I n A thens some k in d o f p ro to -d e m o c ra c y de­

v e lo p e d w h ic h e n fr a n c h is e d a l a r g e r p a r t o f th e p o p u la t io n th a n e ls e w h e re .

A g a in , t h i s i s r e l a t e d t o m i l i t a r y n e e d s. The A th e n ia n f l e e t depended on ro w e rs . A c c o r d in g to M c N e ill (1 9 6 3 , p . 2 0 3 ), " t h e la n d le s s A th e n ia n whose o n ly p r o p e r ty was a s tr o n g b a c k became a b le to p la y h is p a r t i n th e m i l i t a r y a f f a i r s o f th e c i t y . . . . T h e re b y h i s r i g h t to be h e a rd i n th e a s s e m b ly was c o n f ir m e d . "

5

A s i m i l a r id e a has been su g g e s te d by A n d re s k i (1 9 6 8 , p . 2 7 ) . In h i s v ie w , m i l i t a r y needs f o r c o o p e r a tiv e masses d e te rm in e w h e th e r a s o c ie t y i s more o r le s s e g a l i ­ t a r i a n . A n d r e s k i even su g g e s te d a m e a surab le i n d i c a t o r o f m i l i t a r y manpower needs, i . e . , th e m i l i t a r y p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t i o . In h is own w o rk , A n d re s k i p r o v id e s much q u a l i t a t i v e s u p p o rt fro m d i f f e r e n t s o c ie t i e s and p e r io d s o f h i s t o r y f o r t h i s p r o p o s i t i o n . M ost c r o s s - n a t i o n a l r e g r e s s io n s tu d ie s w it h p o s t-W o r ld War I I d a ta a ls o te n d t o c o n fir m th e e x p e c te d r e l a t i o n s h i p betw een h ig h e r m i l i t a r y p a r t i c i ­ p a t io n r a t i o s and more e g a l i t a r i a n incom e d i s t r i b u t i o n s (Chan 1989; D ix o n and Moon 1986^. G a m ie r and H a z e lr ig g 1977; K rie s b e rg 1979, p . 379; Weede and J a g o d z in s k i 1981; Weede and T ie fe n b a c h 1981; Weede 1 9 9 2 b ). Where r u l e r s do n o t need common men f o r m i l i t a r y p u rp o s e s , th e y fa c e l i t t l e in c e n t iv e t o re s p e c t t h e i r n e e d s .

A lth o u g h th e m i l i t a r y may p r o v id e some degree o f e q u a l i t y w i t h i n th e w a r r i o r c o m m u n ity , i t re m a in s h i e r a r c h i c a l l y o rg a n iz e d and te n d s to e x t o l th e v i r t u e o f o b e d ie n c e t o s u p e r io r s . C e r t a i n l y , th e m i l i t a r y i s n o t an a d e q u a te s c h o o l w here th e ra n k s le a r n fre ed o m and how to make t h e i r own d e c is io n s . N e v e r th e le s s , I w a n t to a rg u e t h a t i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t and th e s e c u r i t y dilem m a w h ic h g e n e ra te th e demand f o r s o ld ie r s c o n t r ib u t e d t o th e in v e n t io n o f l i m i t e d governm ent and r e l a t i v e l y s a fe p r o p e r t y r i g h t s , to th e l i b e r a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l s fro m o p p re s s iv e r u l e and t o th e E uropean □ m ir a c le by w h ic h W estern Europe (and i t s N o rth A m erican d a u g h te r s o c i e t i e s ) became th e f i r s t c i v i l i z a t i o n to overcome mass p o v e r ty and mass s t a r v a t i o n .

'T h e r i s e o f th e W e s t' o r 't h e E uropean m ir a c l e ' may be th e p rim e r e v o l u t i o n in th e h i s t o r y o f m a n k in d . W r it e r s as d iv e r s e as A lb e r t (1 9 8 6 ), A n d r e s k i (1 9 8 4 ), C h ir o t ( 1 9 8 6 ), H a l l (1 9 8 5 ), Jones ( 1 9 8 1 ), W a lle r s t e in (1974) and Weber (1 9 2 3 /1 9 8 1 , p . 2 8 8 -8 9 ) a gree t h a t i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t and p o l i t i c a l d i s u n i t y w i t h i n W estern E urope c o n t r i b u t e d to econom ic g ro w th and d e v e lo p m e n t. My own v ie w o f th e m a tte r

(Weede 1990a, 1990b) owes th e g r e a t e s t i n t e l l e c t u a l d e b ts t o Jones (1981) and

Hayek ( 1 9 6 0 ), and le s s e r ones to A lb e r t (1 9 8 6 ), A n d re s k i (1 9 8 4 ), C o lli n s (1 9 8 0 ), N o rth (1 9 8 1 ), and Weber (1 9 2 3 /1 9 8 1 ). H ayek’ s r o le i n t h i s s y n o p s is i s s p e c i a l, because he i s th e one who a n a ly z e s b e s t th e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s o f i n d i v i d u a l d e c is io n - m a k in g i n c o n t r a s t to p u b lic d e c is io n - m a k in g by r u l e r s , th e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s o f p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y i n c o n t r a s t to commonly h e ld p r o p e r t y , and th e bene­

f i c i a l e f f e c t s o f fre e d o m and c o m p e titio n on i n c e n t iv e s , on th e a p p l i c a t i o n o f kn o w le d g e , and on th e a l l o c a t i o n o f re s o u r c e s . R eading th e econom ic h i s t o r y o f Europe and A s ia fro m such an H a ye kia n p e r s p e c tiv e p r o v id e s th e f o l lo w in g a c c o u n t:

The g r e a t A s ia n c i v i l i z a t i o n s , e s p e c ia lly C hina w h ic h was e c o n o m ic a lly and t e c h n o l o g i c a l l y th e m ost advanced s o c ie t y d u r in g th e European m id d le a g e s , were burde n ed w i t h p o l i t i c a l u n i t y w h ile W estern E urope was c h a r a c te r iz e d by c u l t u r a l u n i t y and p o l i t i c a l f r a g m e n ta tio n . I n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t i n Europe le d t o many European w a rs . B u t c o n f l i c t betw een r e l a t i v e l y s m a ll European s t a t e s and a u to n o -

4

mous p r i n c i p a l i t i e s ( a t b e s t th e s iz e o f C hinese p r o v in c e s ) a ls o e f f e c t i v e l y l i m i t e d g o v e rn m e n ta l power o v e r s u b je c t s , w h e th e r p ro d u c e rs o r t r a d e r s . C o n f l i c t betw een p o l i t i c a l u n i t s w i t h i n a s in g le c i v i l i z a t i o n p r o v id e s an o p p o r t u n it y f o r s u b je c ts to v o te w it h t h e i r f e e t a g a in s t o u tra g e s o f o p p re s s io n .

I n huge e m p ire s th e r e i s no such check on a r b i t r a r y r u l e r s and t h e i r k l e p t o c r a t i c i n c l i n a t i o n s . The c o m b in a tio n o f r i v a l r y betw een c o m p a r a tiv e ly s m a ll p o l i t i c a l u n i t s and t r a d e i n mass c o n s u m p tio n goods c o n t r ib u t e d to European t r a d e r s b e in g conceded r e l a t i v e l y s a fe r p r o p e r t y r i g h t s th a n t h e i r A s ia n c o u n t e r p a r t s . I f some European p r in c e te n d e d to ro b m e rch a n ts c r o s s in g h i s t e r r i t o r y , th e y c o u ld a v o id i t . I f a n o th e r E uropean p r in c e p ro m ise d s a fe c o n d u c t a g a in s t some m odest p r o t e c t io n f e e , m e rc h a n ts w o u ld p r e f e r ro u te s th ro u g h h is t e r r i t o r y to a l t e r n a t i v e r o u te s . By t h e i r p r o t e c t i o n fe e s th e y w o u ld s tre n g th e n th e le s s k l e p t o c r a t i c p r in c e v i s - a - v i s h is more k l e p t o c r a t i c r i v a l s . S a f e r p r o p e r ty r i g h t s i n W estern Europe th a n

th r o u g o u t A s ia c o n t r ib u t e d to re d uce d t r a n s a c t io n c o s ts , th e re b y in c re a s e d th e

7

volum e o f tr a d e and r e in f o r c e d th e r e g io n a l d i v i s i o n o f la b o u r . S p e c ia liz a t io n a c c o r d in g t o c o m p a ra tiv e a d va n ta g e and g a in s fro m tr a d e d id c o n t r i b u t e to E uropean e conom ic d e v e lo p m e n t.

I n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t i n European h i s t o r y c o n t r ib u t e d n o t o n ly to th e s p re a d o f r e l a t i v e l y s a fe p r o p e r t y r i g h t s o f m e rc h a n ts , b u t a ls o t o c o m p a r a tiv e ly d e c e n t tr e a tm e n t o f p e a s a n ts i n West E uropean h i s t o r y . P e a s a n ts c o u ld ru n away: to o th e r t e r r i t o r i e s o r to tow ns where th e y became f r e e a f t e r a b o u t a y e a r . By i t s v e r y e x is te n c e an i n t e r s t a t e system te n d s to l i m i t th e pow ers o f r u l i n g c la s s e s and g ove rn m e n ts com pared w i t h c o n t in e n t - s iz e d u n i t a r y e m p ire s .

P o l i t i c a l d i s u n i t y i n Europe a ls o l i m i t e d th e scope o f g o v e rn m e n ta l d e c is io n s . I n 1 5 th c e n tu r y C h in a th e M ing c o u r t c o u ld o u tla w o v e rs e a s tr a d e and th e b u i l d i n g o f v e s s e ls f i t f o r th e h ig h s e a s . The c o u r t succeeded i n m aking t h i s r u l i n g e f f e c t i v e - and i n e n d in g th e C hinese e ra o f e x p l o r a t io n , th u s le a v in g th e oceans to th e E u ro p e a n s . A t w o r s t , European r u l e r s c o u ld p re v e n t t h e i r b i t o f E urope t o p a r t i c i p a t e i n th e e x p l o r a t io n o f th e g lo b e and i n e x p l o i t i n g th e o p p o r t u n it ie s o f o v e rs e a s t r a d e . Nobody i n Europe had th e pow er to o v e r r u le E uropean c u r i o s i t y and a d v e n tu ro u s n e s s on a c o n t in e n t a l s c a le .

P o l i t i c a l f r a g m e n t a t io n a ls o l i m i t e d th e power o f g o ve rn m e n ts to r e g u la t e p r ic e s . I n ( a lm o s t? ) a l l t r a d i t i o n a l s o c ie t i e s th e r e e x i s t n o t io n s a b o u t j u s t p r ic e s . By and l a r g e , j u s t p r ic e s r e s u l t fro m t r a d i t i o n a l p r i c e p a t t e r n s . J u s t ( o r t r a d i t i o n a l ) p r ic e s a re in c o m p a tib le w it h s c a r c i t y p r ic e s re s p o n d in g t o changes i n s u p p ly and demand. I n o r d e r to a llo c a t e re s o u rc e s e f f i c i e n t l y , econom ies need s c a r c i t y p r ic e s r a t h e r th a n ' j u s t ’ p r ic e s . I n g e n e r a l, p o l i t i c a l (and r e l i g i o u s ) a u t h o r i t i e s te n d to s u p p o rt w hat th e y b e lie v e t o be ' j u s t ' ( i n f a c t : i n e f f i c i e n t ) p r i c e s . Where tr a d e c ro s s e s p o l i t i c a l b o r d e r s , where n e ig h b o r in g p o l i t i c a l u n i t s com pete r a t h e r th a n c o llu d e w it h each o t h e r , no a u t h o r i t y can

a s s e r t j u s t p r ic e s . A g a in , p o l i t i c a l c o n f l i c t u n d e rc u ts th e a b i l i t y o f g o v e rn ­ m ents ( w h ic h c o n t r o l o n ly p a r t o f th e e c o n o m ic a lly r e le v a n t a re a ) to do much harm .

I n t e r s t a t e c o n f i c t does n o t p r e v e n t p e r s e c u tio n o f m i n o r i t i e s w i t h i n s t a t e s . B ut i t m i t i g a t e s i t s e f f e c t s . Jews and C h r is t ia n h e r e t ic s o f t e n had to le a v e t h e i r homes i n o r d e r to escape fro m th e w o r s t. O fte n th e y fo u n d a new home in o t h e r E uropean s t a t e s . They to o k t h e i r know ledge w it h them , th e y s p re a d in n o ­ v a t i o n a c ro s s E urop e . The r o l e o f P r o te s t a n t re fu g e e s fro m F ra n ce i n s tr e n g th e n in g th e econ o m ie s o f H o lla n d and P r u s s ia i s p r o b a b ly th e b e s t known exam ple o f th e d i f f u s i o n o f p r o d u c tiv e te c h n iq u e s b y re fu g e e s . A g a in , th e s e b e n e f i c i a l e f f e c t s d e r iv e fro m th e l i m i t a t i o n o f pow er o f European governm ents by c o n f l i c t betw een r e l a t i v e l y s m a ll s t a t e s .

To sum m arize t h i s e x c u r s io n i n t o E uropean h i s t o r y , th e p o in t o f d e p a r tu r e i s a s y s te m o f c o m p e tin g s t a t e s . C o n f l i c t betw een s t a t e s c o n s t it u t e d a f o r e r u n n e r t o and a f u n c t i o n a l e q u iv a le n t o f c o n s t i t u t i o n a l l i m i t a t i o n s o f g o v e rn m e n ta l a u t h o r i t y . I n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t p r o v id e d 'c h e c k s and b a la n c e s ' b e fo r e c o n s t i ­ t u t i o n s d i d . E f f e c t i v e l y l i m i t e d g o v e rn m e n t, r e l a t i v e l y s a fe p r o p e r t y r i g h t s f o r th e lo w e r o rd e r s o f s o c ie t y , an i n a b i l i t y to su p p re ss s c a r c i t y p r ic e s o r in n o v a t io n s fro m above, and th e s p re a d o f in n o v a tio n s by re fu g e e s c o n t r ib u t e d t o th e r i s e o f c a p i t a lis m i n th e W est. The c re e p in g empowerment o f p ro d u c e rs and t r a d e r s i n West E uropean h i s t o r y e n a b le d Europe (and N o rth A m e ric a ) to overcom e mass p o v e r ty and mass s t a r v a t io n b e fo re th e g r e a t A s ia n c i v i l i z a - t i o n s d i d . The g r e a t e r deg re e o f fre e d o m i n Europe th a n i n A s ia , th e g r e a t e r 7 d e g re e t o w h ic h European r a t h e r th a n A s ia n p ro d u c e rs and t r a d e r s c o u ld make t h e i r own d e c is io n s (and re a p m ost o f th e b e n e f i t s th e r e fr o m ) l a r g e l y r e s u lt e d fro m i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t i n Europe and r e s u lt e d i n m ir a c u lo u s econom ic g ro w th .

One may p l a u s i b l y a rg u e t h a t some o f th e r e c e n t econom ic m ir a c le s i n E ast A s ia a re a ls o r e l a t e d to i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t s . I n d is c u s s in g th e European e x p e rie n c e a b o ve , a b a s ic a rg um en t was t h a t i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t a c ts as a s to n g b ra k e on th e p r e d a t o r y i n c l i n a t i o n s o f u n c h a lle n g e d g o v e rn m e n ts . Few g overnm ents in th e c o n te m p o ra ry w o r ld fa c e d c h a lle n g e s , as th e ROC on Taiw an o r th e ROK i n th e s o u th o f th e K orea n p e n in s u la d id . S in ce t h e i r d e fe a t on th e C hinese m a in la n d and s in c e t h e i r n e a r - d e fe a t in th e K orean w ar , r u l i n g c la s s e s i n b o th c o u n tr ie s 8 knew t h a t th e p r o s p e c ts o f s u r v i v a l f o r t h e i r re g im e s depended on th e l o y a l t y o f a l l s t r a t a o f s o c ie t y , on th e p r o d u c t i v i t y o f t h e i r econom ies ( i n o r d e r to

s u p p o rt t h e i r h e a vy m i l i t a r y b u r d e n ) , and f o r th e f i r s t decades on A m e rica n s u p p o r t.

T aiw an and S o u th K orea a re o u t l i e r s on th r e e v a r ia b l e s : f i r s t , on th e s e rio u s n e s s o f th e s e c u r i t y dilem m a th e y fa c e ; s e con d , on t h e i r g ro w th r e c o r d ; t h i r d , on

th e e g a l i t a r i a n c h a r a c t e r o f t h e i r income d i s t r i b u t i o n s ( i f one c o n t r o ls f o r t h e i r , by now, m id d le l e v e l o f econom ic d e v e lo p m e n t).

- 9 -

F i n a l l y , p o l i t i c a l and econom ic r e fo r m i n c o m m u n is t-ru le d s o c ie t i e s a ls o r e s u lt s fro m i n t e r n a t i o n a l r i v a l r y and c o m p e t it io n . So f a r , th e re fo rm s i n th e fo rm e r S o v ie t U n io n and E a s te rn Europe expanded p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n and i n d i v i d u a l fre e d o m w it h o u t r e v e r s in g o r even h a l t i n g econom ic d e c lin e , whereas re fo rm s i n M a in la n d C h in a c o n t r i b u t e d v e r y l i t t l e to c i v i l l i b e r t i e s and p o l i t i c a l r i g h t s , b u t s i g n i f i c a n t l y to econom ic g ro w th . I r r e s p e c t i v e o f th e degree and a re a o f s u cce ss o f th e s e r e fo r m s , th e re fo rm s have to be e x p la in e d by i n t e r n a t i o n a l p r e s s u r e . From th e p e r s p e c tiv e o f r u l i n g e l i t e s , i n s t i t u t i o n a l r e fo r m i s to r e d e f in e p r o p e r t y r i g h t s , to im p ro ve in c e n t iv e s , to re d u ce t r a n s a c t io n c o s ts and t o s t im u la t e econom ic g ro w th . In p r i n c i p l e , r u l i n g com m unists i n th e l a t e 1970s o r 1980s and r u l i n g p r in c e s i n European h i s t o r y fa c e d a s i m i l a r s i t u a t i o n and c h o ic e , w h ic h has been d e s c r ib e d by N o rth (1 9 8 1 , p . 29) i n th e s e te rm s :

" R e l a t i v e l y i n e f f i c i e n t p r o p e r ty r i g h t s t h r e a t e n th e s u r v i v a l o f a s t a t e i n the c o n t e x t o f more e f f i c i e n t n e ig h b o r s , and th e r u l e r fa c e s th e c h o ic e o f e x t i n c t i o n o r o f m o d ify in g th e fu n d a m e n ta l o w n e rs h ip s t r u c t u r e t o e n a b le s o c ie ty to re d uce

t r a n s a c t io n c o s ts and r a is e th e r a t e o f g r o w t h . " The v e r y same argum ent has been a p p lie d to C hina b y Nee (19 91 , p . 36) and i t has been e x te n d e d to p r e d i c t p o l i t i c a l change as a r e s u l t o f econom ic re fo rm s w h ic h re d u c e th e dependence o f i n d i v i d u a l s and f a m i l i e s on p o l i t i c a l c a d re s : "T he dilem m a c o n f r o n t in g th e few re m a in in g com m unist r u l e r s i s t h a t to s u r v iv e i n a w o r ld o f c o m p e tin g s t a t e s , th e y a re co m p e lle d t o i n i t i a t e and s u s ta in m a rk e t r e fo r m . Y e t th e s p re a d o f th e m a rk e t as an i n s t i t u t i o n and id e o lo g y e ro de s th e i n s t i t u t i o n a l fo u n d a tio n o f th e s t a t e s o c i a l i s t r e d i s t r i b u t i v e economy and paves th e way f o r re g im e c h a n g e ."

3. I n t e r s t a t e C o n f l i c t , R e b e llio n and V io le n t R e v o lu t io n a r y Change

S t r u c t u r a l change as w e l l as v io le n c e a re m a tte r s o f d e g re e . H e re , I s h a l l s t a r t by fo c u s in g on th e g r e a t r e v o lu t io n s where th e deg re e o f s t r u c t u r a l change as w e ll as o f c o e r c io n has been e x t r a o r d in a r y . S k o c p o l's (1 9 79 ) t r e a t i s e o f g r e a t r e v o ­

l u t i o n s i n F ra n c e , R u s s ia , and C hina i s a n a t u r a l s t a r t i n g p o i n t because o f h e r i n t e r e s t i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t , a lth o u g h h e r w o rk has a t t r a c t e d some s i g n i ­

f i c a n t c r i t i c i s m (A rjo m a n d 1986, T a y lo r 1 9 8 8 ). M o re o v e r, h e r r e a d in g o f th e R u s s ia n r e v o lu t io n i n p a r t i c u l a r i s open to c h a lle n g e s o f h i s t o r i c a l a c c u ra c y

10

and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n (P ip e s 1990, M cD a n ie l 1 9 9 1 ). B ut no a n a ly s t s u rp a s s e s h e r fo c u s 11

on lin k a g e s betw een i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t and r e v o l u t i o n .

The g r e a t r e v o lu t io n s o c c u re d i n s t a t e s u nder s e v e re e x t e r n a l p r e s s u r e . F ra n ce had l o s t th e Seven Y e a r s ' War a g a in s t B r i t a i n le s s th a n a g e n e r a tio n b e fo r e th e r e v o l u t i o n . M o re o v e r, th e f i n a n c i a l and econom ic r e p e r c u s s io n s o f th e w ar d id

11

n o t end i n 1763 w it h th e Peace o f P a r is , n o r d id F r a n c o - B r it is h r i v a l r y f o r hegemony i n Europe and o v e rs e a s . F ra n ce was a kingdom u n t e r c o n t in u in g e x t e r n a l and f i n a n c i a l p r e s s u r e . Her p r e s t ig e had s u ffe r e d fro m th e lo s s e s i n th e g r e a t w a r. I n th e case o f R u s s ia , e x t e r n a l p re s s u re was much s t r o n g e r th a n i n th e F re n c h c a s e . By 1917, C z a r is t R u s s ia had l o s t c o n t r o l o v e r huge t e r r i t o r i e s , th e arm y was e s s e n t i a l l y b e a te n and a lm o s t i n a s t a t e o f d i s s o l u t i o n . And b e fo re W o rld War I , C z a r is t R u s s ia had s u f f e r e d a n o th e r h u m i l i a t i n g d e fe a t fro m Japanese hands i n 1905. M i l i t a r y p re s s u r e was as g r e a t o r even g r e a t e r i n th e C hinese

c a s e . I n th e 1930s and e a r ly 1940s C hina l o s t c o n t r o l to th e Japanese o v e r th e im p o r t a n t i n d u s t r i a l r e g io n o f M a n c h u ria , o v e r th e t r a d i t i o n a l c a p i t a l B e i j i n g and o v e r th e new c a p i t a l N a n jin g as w e l l as o v e r a l l o f c o a s t a l C hina and th e m ost e c o n o m ic a lly advanced r e g io n s o f th e c o u n tr y .

I n t e r n a t i o n a l r i v a l r y and h o s t i l i t y f o r c e d F ra n c e , R u s s ia , and C h in a to compete w i t h more advanced n a t io n s , w h e th e r B r i t a i n , Germany, o r Ja p a n . Under e x t e r n a l p r e s s u r e th e r u l i n g c la s s e s o f F ra n c e , R u s s ia , and C h in a had t o a tte m p t to e x t r a c t more r e s o u r c e s fro m th e p e o p le th a n b e fo r e . Tax money and m i l i t a r y s e rv ic e m e n w ere n ee d ed , i . e . , th e e x t e r n a l p re s s u re r e in f o r c e d o r g e n e ra te d d o m e s tic d i s t i b u t i o n a l s t r u g g le s . E x t e r n a l d efe nse o r th e g l o r y o f th e n a t io n

a re c o l l e c t i v e g o o d s. S u b je c ts ( o r c i t i z e n s f o r t h a t m a t t e r ) p r e f e r to see o th e r s pay f o r them . A c c o r d in g to S k o c p o l ( 1 9 7 9 ) , e f f i c i e n t re s o u rc e e x t r a c t i o n i n a l l cases

needed th e a s s is ta n c e o r a t l e a s t a c q u ie s c e n c e o f th e la n d h o ld in g c la s s e s i n t h e i r own t a x a t i o n .

I n F ra n ce and i n C h in a r e c r u it m e n t o f a d m in is tr a t o r s fro m th e la n d h o ld in g c la s s e s am ounted t o th e p e n e t r a t io n o f g ove rn m e n t by th e la n d h o ld in g c la s s e s . L a c k in g a s t r o n g c e n t r a liz e d and in d e p e n d e n t a d m in i s t r a t io n , n e i t h e r p r e r e v o lu t io n a r y F ra n ce n o r p r e r e v o lu t io n a r y C h in a c o u ld c o l l e c t th e n e c e s s a ry r e s o u r c e s . F re e ­ r i d i n g te n d e n c ie s w i t h i n th e la n d h o ld in g c la s s e s s a b o ta g e d th e c a p a b i l i t y o f

th e F re n c h and C hinese r u l i n g c la s s e s f o r c o l l e c t i v e a c t i o n , in c lu d i n g c o l l e c t i v e a c t i o n to p re s e r v e t h e i r p r i v i l e g e s .

By c o n t r a s t , th e C z a r is t a d m in is t r a t io n was c e n t r a liz e d enough to be c a p a b le o f re s o u r c e e x t r a c t i o n . A lth o u g h th e la n d h o ld in g n o b i l i t y i n R u s s ia n e a r ly m o n o p o liz e d th e m ost im p o r ta n t p o s it io n s i n th e C z a r is t a d m in i s t r a t io n and a rm y, C z a r is t a b s o lu tis m p r o v id e d th e r u l i n g c la s s w it h th e c a p a b i l i t y to overcom e th e f r e e r i d i n g te n d e n c ie s w i t h i n i t s e l f by t h r e a t s o f c o e r c io n and s e l e c t i v e in c e n t iv e s . B u t th e s u p e r i o r i t y o f German o v e r R u ssia n a rm ie s i n

W o rld War I le d to th e breakdow n o f th e R u s s ia n f r o n t , o f r u l i n g c la s s a u t h o r i t y and o f t h e i r r e p r e s s iv e c a p a b i l i t i e s .

A lth o u g h th e r o u te t o th e breakdow n o f th e o ld o r d e r d i f f e r e d i n F rance and C h in a fro m th e R u s s ia n r o u t e , w it h F rance and C hina b e in g u n a b le to m o b iliz e re s o u r c e s a g a in s t u p p e r c la s s r e s is t a n c e and f r e e r i d i n g and w it h R u s s ia 's arm y b e in g b e a te n by a f o r e ig n enemy, th e r o o t ca use , i . e . , i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e t it io n w it h more advanced s o c i e t i e s , as w e l l as th e r e s u l t s , i . e . , a breakdow n o f th e c o e r c iv e a p p a ra tu s o f th e s t a t e were i d e n t i c a l .

So f a r , my s k e tc h o f S k o c p o l's e x p la n a tio n o f th e g r e a t r e v o lu t io n s l i n k s e x t e r n a l and m i l i t a r y c o m p e t it io n betw een s t a t e s w it h r e v o lu t io n a r y p o t e n t i a l among th e l o s e r s . P u t t in g p re s s u r e on s t a t e fin a n c e s a n d /o r a rm ie s may

d e c re a s e th e c o e r c iv e c a p a b i l i t i e s o f g overnm ents to such a deg re e t h a t mass r e b e l l i o n may su c c e e d . A c t u a l l y , th e p r e r e v o lu t io n a r y c r is e s were more th a n mere t h r e a t s t o n a t io n a l o r im p e r ia l s e c u r i t y . S im u lta n e o u s ly , th e y were econom ic c r is e s im p o s in g new h a r d s h ip s on th e lo w e r c la s s e s o f s o c ie ty i . e . , th e p e a s a n ts .

13 -

As a rg ue d e ls e w h e re (R u le 1988, c h a p te r 7; Weede 1992a, c h a p te r 2 1 ) , d e p r iv a t io n i s n o t enough to e x p la in p ea sa nt r e b e l l i o n s . The p e a s a n ts must be c a p a b le o f c o l l e c t i v e a c t i o n . There m ust be p e a s a n t o r g a n iz a t io n s , s o l i d a r i t y and le a d e r s h ip . T here m ust n o t be d a i l y c o n t r o l o f p e a sa n t

a c t i v i t i e s by members o f th e u p p e r c la s s e s . There m ust n o t be c r o s s - c u t t i n g c le a v a g e s d i v i d i n g th e p e a s a n ts fro m each o th e r and l i n k i n g them to e l i t e

f a c t i o n s . A c c o r d in g to S k o c p o l (1 9 7 9 ), th e se c o n d it io n s were l a r g e l y met i n France and i n R u s s ia , w h ile th e C hinese p e a s a n try was o r i g i n a l l y in c a p a b le o f

c o l l e c t i v e a c t i o n on i t s own and t i e d by c la n , f a m ily o r c l i e n t i l i s m to th e m id d le o r even u p p e r c la s s e s . The Communist c a d re s needed decades to

b u i l d th e o r g a n iz a t io n a l i n f r a s t r u c t u r e f o r mass r e b e l l i o n . The p r e r e v o lu t io n a r y g overnm ent c o u ld n o t e f f e c t i v e l y i n t e r f e r e w it h th e com m unist b u ild - u p o f a r e v o lu t io n a r y p o t e n t i a l because o f i t s own d i v i s i o n , i n e f f i c i e n c y and c o r r u p t i o n as w e l l as because o f th e w ar w it h Japan.

W hether th e p e a s a n ts a re c a p a b le o f c o l l e c t i v e a c t i o n fro m th e v e r y be­

g in n in g , as i n F ra n ce and R u s s ia , o r o n ly a f t e r a d e d ic a te d e f f o r t a t mo­

b i l i z i n g them , as i n C h in a , th e end r e s u l t i s th e same a g a in : p e a s a n t r e b e l l i o n and th e breakdow n o f g o v e rn m e n ta l a u t h o r i t y i n th e c o u n tr y s id e . The s im u lt a n e it y o f th e c o lla p s e o f governm ent u n d e r e x t e r n a lly - d e r iv e d p re s s u r e and o f mass r e b e l l i o n fro m b e lo w a re th e e s s e n t ia l com ponents o f th e g r e a t r e v o l u t i o n s .

A c c o r d in g t o S k o c p o l (1 9 7 9 ), th e m a jo r e f f e c t o f th e g r e a t r e v o lu t io n s has been th e b u i l d i n g s t r o n g e r s t a t e s who b e t t e r were a b le to compete in i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t s . P o s t r e v o lu t io n a r y (N a p o le o n ic ) F rance o v e rra n m ost o f C o n t in e n t a l E u ro p e , b e fo r e i t was d e fe a te d b y th e B r i t i s h , th e R u s s ia n s , and t h e i r a l l i e s . P o s t r e v o lu tio n a r y R u s s ia ( i . e . , th e S o v ie t U n io n ) d e fe a te d Germany i n W o rld War I I . And p o s t r e v o lu t i o n a r y C hina

c e r t a i n l y i s a s t r o n g e r s t a t e th a n p r e r e v o lu t io n a r y C hina was. W h ile

S k o c p o l's th e o r y r a is e s a l o t o f d iv e r s e is s u e s , two o f them a re o f u tm o s t

im p o rta n c e i n th e c o n te x t o f t h i s p a p e r. F i r s t , i s i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t involvem eiv as im p o r t a n t a d e te r m in a n t o f r e v o lu t io n a r y u p h e a v a ls as she s u g g e s ts ? Second,

how do th e e f f e c t s o f lo n g - te r m s i l e n t r e v o lu t io n s ( l i k e th e E uropean m ir a c le ) compare w i t h th e e f f e c t s o f s h o r t - t e r m v i o l e n t r e v o lu t io n s ?

I n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t in v o lv e m e n t i s im p o r ta n t i n th e a n a ly s is o f r e v o lu t io n s , 12

because i t a f f e c t s th e b a la n c e o f pow er w i t h i n s o c i e t i e s . M i l i t a r y d e fe a t u p s e ts t h i s b a la n c e more r a d i c a l l y th a n a n y th in g e ls e . S t i l l , one may j o i n E c k s te in (1 9 8 0 , p . 1 59-160) i n q u e s t io n in g th e s t r e n g t h o f th e r e l a t i o n s h i p : "Exam ples o f r e v o lu t io n s a f t e r l o s t w a rs abound: F rance i n 1871; R u s s ia i n 1905 and 1917;

T u rk e y i n 1918; C hina a f t e r W o rld War I I . U n f o r t u n a t e ly , c o u n te rc a s e s can be in v o k e d j u s t as r e a d i l y : Japan o r I t a l y a f t e r th e l a s t g r e a t w a r, f o r in s ta n c e . P erha p s th e s e cases o n ly show t h a t lo s in g a w ar i s n o t a s u f f i c i e n t c o n d it io n f o r r e v o l u t i o n ; b u t th e n , n e i t h e r i s i t a n e c e s s a ry c o n d it io n , o r even a ’ n o r m a l' o c c u r re n c e ( e . g . , F ra n c e , 1789; M e x ic o , 1910; Cuba, 1959, e t c e t e r a ) . "O f c o u rs e ,

S k o c p o l's i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t in v o lv e m e n t o r r i v a l r y w i t h more advanced s t a t e s , l i k e M c D a n ie l's (1 9 91 ) v u l n e r a b i l i t y to f o r e i g n t h r e a t s , i s a much b ro a d e r b a c k ­ g ro u n d c o n d it io n o f r e v o lu t io n s th a n i s m i l i t a r y d e f e a t . W h ile th e F re n ch r e v o lu t io n o f 1789 i s n o t c o v e re d by m i l i t a r y d e fe a t u n le s s one a c c e p ts im p la u s ib ly lo n g tim e la g s , i t i s c o v e re d by th e more i n c l u s i v e c a te g o r y o f r i v a l r y w i t h a more advanced s t a t e , i . e . , B r i t a i n i n th e F re n c h c a s e . B ut r i v a l r y w it h more advanced s ta te s m ig h t be to o b ro a d a c a te g o r y , because i t a ls o c o n c e rn s many n o n - r e v o lu t io n a r y s t a t e and t h e r e f o r e t e l l us l i t t l e a b o u t w h ic h s o c ie t i e s a re v u ln e r a b le to r e v o lu t io n s . H u n tin g to n (1 9 6 8 , p . 275) s t a t e s e x p l i c i t l y w hat seems im p lie d by S k o c p o l's

(a s w e l l as by M c D a n ie l's ) t h e o r y : th e m ost advanced s t a t e s a re le a s t v u ln e r a b le t o r e v o l u t i o n . 13

15 -

As soon as S k o c p o l (1 9 79 ) had p u b lis h e d h e r b o o k , a n o th e r g r e a t r e v o lu t io n o c c u r re d i n I r a n . T h is i s a d i f f i c u l t case f o r h e r th e o r y . I r a n ' s degree o f i n ­ v o lv e m e n t i n i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r th a n t h a t o f m ost o t h e r s t a t e s . T ru e , I r a n was g e o p o l i t i c a l l y v u ln e r a b le because o f an o v e r ­ p o w e rin g n e ig h b o r , b u t A m e rica e f f e c t i v e l y d e te r r e d S o v ie t moves a g a in s t I r a n . I n r e s p e c t t o th e G u lf sheikdom s I r a n came c lo s e r to b e in g th e l o c a l b u l l y r a t h e r th a n b e in g b u l l i e d a ro u n d . The S ha h 's re g im e was in v o lv e d i n no w ar and t h e r e f o r e c o u ld n o t lo s e i t . The in s tr u m e n ts o f r e p r e s s io n re m a in e d a v a i la b le w it h o u t b e in g r u t h l e s s l y a p p lie d . W h ile th e S h a h 's ' f a i l u r e o f n e r v e ' i s n o t an e x p la n a tio n o f e v e n ts , i t may s e rv e as a s h o rth a n d d e s c r ip t io n o f th e p u z z le . The p re d o m in a n tly u rb a n c h a r a c t e r o f th e I r a n i a n r e v o lu t io n a ls o does n o t f i t w it h S k o c p o l's r u r a l f o c u s .

I n some r e s p e c ts M c D a n ie l's (1 991) e x p la n a tio n i s h a lf- w a y i n betw een S k o c p o l's (1 9 7 9 ) and H u n t in g t o n 's (1 968) t h e o r y . L ik e S k o c p o l, M cD a n ie l g iv e s much w e ig h t to v u l n e r a b i l i t y t o f o r e i g n t h r e a t s . L ik e H u n tin g to n , M c D a n ie l b e lie v e s t h a t m o d e rn i­

z a t i o n i s d e s t a b i l i z i n g . In M c D a n ie l's a n a ly s e s o f th e R u s s ia n and I r a n i a n r e v o lu ­ t i o n s g e o p o l i t i c a l v u l n e r a b i l i t y has d r iv e n a u t o c r a t ic m o d e r n iz a tio n . I n M c D a n ie l's v ie w , a u t o c r a t i c m o d e r n iz a tio n i s l i k e l y t o lo s e th e s u p p o rt o f t r a d i t i o n a l g ro up s w it h o u t r e p la c i n g i t by s u p p o rt fro m modern g ro u p s . So, r e v o l u t i o n seems to o c c u r , because o f th e s p e c i f i c re s p o n s e to i n t e r n a t i o n a l c h a lle n g e s , i . e . , a u t o c r a t ic mo­

d e r n i z a t i o n , w h ile t h i s e x p la n a to r y s k e tc h seems b r o a d ly c o n s is t e n t n o t o n ly w it h th e R u s s ia n and I r a n i a n cases a n a ly z e d i n d e p th by M c D a n ie l (1 9 9 1 ), b u t a ls o w it h th e F re n c h and C h in ese c a s e s , i t s u f f e r s fro m th e e x is te n c e o f much e v id e n c e where a u t o c r a t i c m o d e r n iz a tio n 14 d id n o t r e s u l t i n v i o l e n t r e v o l u t i o n : Japan a f t e r th e

M e j i - r e s t a u r a t i o n , P ru s s ia -G e rm a n y i n th e 1 9 th and e a r ly 2 0 th c e n tu r y , T u rk e y a f t e r th e K e m a lis t t a k e o v e r , S outh K orea and Taiw an a f t e r W orld War I I , even F ranco S p a in w here a u to c r a c y was p e a c e f u lly re p la c e d by dem ocracy a f t e r th e a u t o c r a t 's d e a th .

The d i s s o l u t i o n o f th e S o v ie t em pire and th e l i b e r a t i o n o f E ast European s t a t e s i n 1989 and th e b re a ku p o f th e S o v ie t U n io n i t s e l f i n th e e a r ly 1990s, a ls o c a l l s th e im p a c t o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t on r e v o lu t io n s i n t o q u e s tio n . L ik e S k o c p o l's (1 9 7 9 ) a g r a r ia n s o c ie t i e s b e fo r e , th e S o v ie t U n io n d id compete w it h a more advanced s t a t e , A m e ric a , f o r g lo b a l p o w e r. As i n o th e r r e v o lu t io n a r y s o c i e t i e s to b e , t h i s u n e q u a l c o m p e titio n p u t g r e a t s t r a i n on th e S o v ie t

economy and s o c ie t y . B ut th e r e was no w a r, much le s s a d e f e a t . The Red Army and th e KGB c o u ld have c ru s h e d d is s e n t a t home and i n th e n e ig h b o r in g

c l i e n t - s t a t e s . W h ile such a crackdow n m ig h t have been b lo o d y , a g a in th e means w ere a v a i la b le w it h o u t b e in g r u t h l e s s l y a p p lie d .

S k o c p o l (1 9 7 9 ) i s a w r i t e r i n th e h i s t o r i c a l s o c io lo g y t r a d i t i o n . She does n o t sa y w h ic h f a c t s a re f o r b id d e n by th e th e o r y , o r u n d e r w h ic h c o n d it io n s th e th e o r y w o u ld be r e f u t e d . So, a b ro a d and f l e x i b l e i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f h e r th e o r y seems

to f i t h e r i n t e n t i o n s much b e t t e r th a n a n a rro w f a l s i f i c a t i o n i s t a p p ro a c h . I t seems p o s s ib le t o p r o v id e an e x p la n a tio n o f th e c o lla p s e o f th e S o v ie t U nion w h ic h i s b r o a d ly c o n s is t e n t w i t h S k o c p o l's (1979) p e r s p e c t iv e o f r e v o lu t io n s . The S o v ie t U n io n s u r e ly s u ff e r e d fro m i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m p e titio n w it h a more ad­

va nce d s t a t e . T h ere a ls o was d e t e r i o r a t i n g econom ic p e rfo rm a n c e ( M u r r e l l and O ls o n 1 9 9 1 ). The n u c le a r b a la n c e o f t e r r o r , th e m i l i t a r y s t r e n g t h o f th e S o v ie t U n io n and th e d e m o c ra tic c h a r a c te r o f h e r o p p o ne n ts p r o v id e d m i l i t a r y s e c u r i t y f o r th e S o v ie t U n io n , w h ile h e r d e c l in i n g econom ic p e rfo rm a n c e - in p a r t i c u l a r i f com pared to h e r W estern r i v a l s - p r o v id e d a s tr o n g s tim u lu s f o r G o rb a c h e v 's r e fo r m s . As Deudney and Ik e n b e r r y (1 9 9 1 -9 2 , p . 97) have w r i t t e n ,

"a w o r ld d o m in a te d by l i b e r a l s t a t e s a f f o r d s re m a in in g i l l i b e r a l s t a t e s b o th

a need and an o p p o r t u n it y to l i b e r a l i z e . " So, G o rb a c h e v 's re fo rm s w h ic h i n i t i a t e d th e r e v o lu t io n a r y change and th e e xp a n s io n o f p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n s h o u ld be seen as a re s p o n s e to i n t e r n a t i o n a l c h a lle n g e s .

17

L i b e r a l i z i n g an a u t h o r i t a r i a n re g im e i s d i f f i c u l t . I t im p lie s r e d u c in g th e degree o f re g im e r e p r e s s iv e n e s s . On th e r o u te fro m a t r u l y r e p r e s s iv e re g im e , as th e S o v ie t U n io n was u n t i l th e m id -1 9 8 0 s , to a d e m o c ra tic o r l i b e r a l re g im e , one can h a r d ly a v o id a s e m i- r e p r e s s iv e t r a n s i t i o n p e r io d . S e m i-re p re s s iv e n e s s h o w e v e r, m a x im iz e s th e v u l n e r a b i l i t y o f a s t a t e t o r e b e l l i o n and v io le n c e

( M u ll e r and Weede 1990) ^ L e g i t i m a t e , e f f e c t i v e and n o n - v io le n t c h a n n e ls f o r p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n do n o t y e t e x i s t , b u t r e p r e s s io n no lo n g e r s u f f i c i e n t l y d e t e r s r e b e l l i o n .

I n t e r n a t i o n a l c h a lle n g e s and a l i b e r a l i z i n g re s p o n s e fro m above m aking room f o r c h a lle n g e s fro m b e lo w and fro m th e im p e r ia l p e r ip h e r y a re n o t th e e n t i r e s t o r y . Loss o f c o n fid e n c e a t th e to p d e l e g it im i z e d th e re g im e and u nd e rm in e d i t s w il lin g n e s s t o a p p ly i t s s t i l l am ple c a p a b i l i t i e s f o r r e p r e s s io n ( D i Palma 1 9 9 1 ). O r, as P e tte e (1 9 38 ) o r H u n tin g to n (1 9 6 8 , p . 267) p o in t o u t , some o ld re g im e s s im p ly c o lla p s e . F o r some p e r io d o f t im e , th e re e x is t s a k in d o f vacuum. So i t was i n th e USSR i n 1991 and somewhat e a r l i e r i n h e r E uropean c l i e n t - s t a t e s .

The speed o f th e c o lla p s e o f Communist r u le i n E a s te rn Europe c o n s t it u t e s a p u z z le i n i t s e l f . P a r t o f th e e x p la n a tio n seems t o be p r e fe r e n c e d i s t o r t i o n

(K u ra n 1 9 9 1 ). I n a t o t a l i t a r i a n s o c ie t y p e o p le fa c e s tr o n g in c e n t iv e s t o g e n e ra te a fa c a d e o f c o n f o r m ity . I n such a s o c ie t y one a v o id s a l o t o f t r o u b le , i f o n e 's r u l e r s g e t th e im p r e s s io n t h a t o n e ' s p re fe re n c e s f i t t h e i r s . When m ost p e o p le do n o t r e v e a l t h e i r t r u e p r e fe r e n c e s , b u t p r o je c t d i s t o r t e d im a g es, th e n i t i s v e ry d i f f i c u l t f o r each and e v e ry o n e t o know much a b o u t th e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p re fe re n c e s i n s o c ie t y . F o r q u i t e some t im e , a re g im e may lo o k l i k e b e in g b u i l t on c o n s id e r a b le p o p u la r a c q u ie s c e n c e w it h o u t b e n e f i t t i n g fro m s i g n i f i c a n t s u p p o r t. An exogenous s h o c k , such as th e r e n u n c ia t io n o f th e B rezhnev d o c t r i n e and th e r e b y th e w ith d r a w a l o f S o v ie t s u p p o r t fro m c l i e n t - s t a t e re g im e s , may e nco u ra ge some p e o p le to e x p re ss t h e i r tr u e p r e fe r e n c e s . T h e r e a f t e r , o th e r s j o i n i n and a bandwagon m ig h t d e v e lo p .

Once th e r e i s a bandwagon th e p re v io u s d e fe n d e rs o f th e o ld re g im e may lo s e the c o u ra g e t o d e fe n d th e o ld o r d e r . In s te a d some o f them s t a r t to d i s t o r t t h e i r own p r e fe r e n c e s by s a y in g t h a t th e y have a lw a y s been d e e p ly s k e p t i c a l o f th e o ld re g im e , c o lla b o r a t e d o n ly to p re v e n t w orse t h in g s fro m h a p p e n in g e t c . . So, p re ­ fe r e n c e d i s t o r t i o n i n f a v o r o f th e o ld re g im e may soon g iv e way to new p r e fe r e n c e d i s t o r t i o n s w here p e o p le p la c e b e ts i n th e l i k e l y w in n e rs o f th e o n g o in g s t r u g g le f o r p o l i t i c a l p o w e r. The appearance o f in d e c is iv e n e s s a t th e to p can s i g n a l t h a t th e o ld p r e fe r e n c e d i s t o r t i o n no lo n g e r p a y s , g e n e ra te a mass w ith d r a w a l o f a c q u ie s c e n c e and even s t a r t a new k in d o f p re fe r e n c e d i s t o r t i o n i n a v e r y s h o r t p e r io d o f t im e .

I n th e S o v ie t U n io n h e r s e l f , th e u n r a v e lin g o f th e o ld re g im e was p r o b a b ly s tim u ­ l a t e d b y g la s n o s t , i . e . , by e x p a n d in g fre ed o m s o f th o u g h t, s p e e ch , w r i t i n g , a s s e m b ly and a s s o c i a t io n . G la s n o s t i t s e l f can m ost p l a u s i b l y be a t t r i b u t e d to th e econ o m ic c r i s i s i n th e USSR w h ic h u nd e rm in e d h e r c a p a b i l i t y t o com pete w it h th e more a dva n ced W e st. So, i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t i s an i n d i r e c t , b u t ke y

i n g r e d i e n t i n th e u l t i m a t e c o lla p s e o f Communism i n R u s s ia and th e S o v ie t U n io n .

E v e n ts i n 1989 i n E a s t Germany must have been t r ig g e r e d by G o rb a c h e v 's f a i l u r e t o v i s i b l y s u p p o r t H onnecker a t h is f a l l v i s i t as w e l l as by th e o p e n in g o f th e H u n g a ria n r o u t e t o th e West f o r w o u ld -b e re fu g e e s fro m E a s t Germany. The p r ic e o f p r e fe r e n c e d i s t o r t i o n had gone down s t e e p ly . A g a in , i n t e r n a t i o n a l f a c t o r s p la y e d a k e y r o l e i n th e c o lla p s e o f th e re g im e . Once th e o u ts id e p r o t e c t o r USSR had w ith d r a w n h e r s u p p o r t , th e o ld re g im e s to o d naked and c o lla p s e d w i t h i n w eeks.

C o n c e rn in g th e r e s u l t s o f g r e a t r e v o l u t i o n s , S k o c p o l's (1 9 7 9 , 1988) s tr e n g th e n in g o f th e s t a t e i s o b s e rv a b le i n a l l c a s e s : i n N a p o le o n ic and p o s t r e v o lu t i o n a r y F ra n c e , i n com m unist R u s s ia and C h in a , a ls o i n t h e o c r a t ic I r a n . I t i s to o e a r l y t o ju d g e th e r e s u l t s o f S o v ie t c o lla p s e . B ut th e s tr e n g th e n in g o f the state after sucessful revolutions has hpon nbf-ainad bv =n-;i

19 -

b lo o d . The n o t o r io u s g u i l l o t i n e has o n ly been a b e g in n in g . R u le rs i n 2 0 th c e n tu r y p o s t r e v o lu t i o n a r y re g im e s have been much more re a d y to k i l l t h e i r s u b je c ts o r to s t a r v e them to d e a th . The number o f v i c t im s o f S o v ie t Communism has been e s tim a te d i n th e o r d e r o f m a g n itu d e o f 60 m i l l i o n

(Rummel 1987, 1 9 9 0 ). I n Communist C hina th e number o f v ic t im s has s u rp a s s e d

30 m i l l i o n (Domes 1985, Rummel 1 9 8 7 ). I n th e S o v ie t U n io n as i n C h in a m i l l i o n s o f v i c t i m s d ie d o f p o lic y - in d u c e d s t a r v a t io n r a t h e r th a n i n f r o n t o f a f i r i n g squad o r i n c o n c e n t r a t io n camps. I t i s p la u s ib le to l i n k t h e i r d e a th d i r e c t l y to re g im e e f f o r t s to ta k e a s h o r t c u t to g r e a t power s t a t u s , i r r e s p e c t i v e o f th e human

c o s t a t home. A s tr o n g s t a t e t h a t c o u ld do w hat i t p le a s e d to do to i t s p e o p le a ls o was th e r e s u l t o f th e I r a n i a n r e v o l u t i o n . The p o s t r e v o lu t i o n a r y re g im e o f th e m u lla h s k i l l e d a b o u t tw e n ty tim e s as many p e o p le as th e l a t e Shah and h i s Savak (Rummel 1987, p . 2 5 ) . B u t th e re g im e g e n e ra te d r e v o lu t io n a r y t e r r o r and a re a d in e s s f o r m a rty rd o m i n th e p o p u la tio n t h a t made i t p o s s ib le to w it h s t a n d and r e p e l l th e I r a q i a t t a c k a g a in s t I r a n . R e v o lu tio n s may succeed i n b u i l d i n g s tr o n g s t a t e s o r i n g e n e r a tin g new and e f f e c t i v e p o l i t i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n s . T h e ir o th e r r e s u l t s have been a p t l y summarized by H u n tin g to n (1 9 6 8 , p . 3 0 8 /9 and 3 1 1 ): "The im m e d ia te econom ic r e s u l t s o f r e v o lu t io n s a re a lm o s t e n t i r e l y n e g a t i v e . . .

R e v o lu tio n s p ro d u c e l i t t l e l i b e r t y . . . " I t re m a in s to be seen w h e th e r th e

u lt im a t e r e s u l t s o f th e ' r e v o l u t i o n ’ i n E a s te rn E urope c o n s t it u t e an e x c e p tio n . W h atever th e s e w i l l b e , r e v o lu t io n a r y change i n E a s te rn Europe and i n th e S o v ie t U n io n was i n i t i a t e d b y p o l i c y r e v e r s a l a t th e to p r a t h e r th a n b y mass r e b e l l i o n fro m b e lo w .

4 . Some T e n t a t iv e C o n c lu s io n s : I n t e r s t a t e C o n f l i c t and I n d i v i d u a l Freedom

R e v ie w in g th e e v id e n c e fro m h i s t o r i c a l a n a ly s e s g e n e re a te s th e f o l lo w in g im p r e s s io n . On th e one h an d , i n t e r s t a t e c o n f l i c t has p ro v id e d e x i t o p tio n s f o r s u b je c ts and in c r e a s e d th e dependence o f r u l e r s on s u b je c ts i n o r d e r to

g overnm ent and fre e d o m as w e l l as to p o l i t i c a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n and some r e d i s ­ t r i b u t i o n o f p o l i t i c a l r i g h t s fro m th e to p to th e lo w e r o r m id d le c la s s e s . I n th e v e r y lo n g r u n , th e im p a c t o f i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t on r e v o lu t io n a r y change lo o k s l i b e r a t i n g by c u r t a i l i n g th e power o f r u l e r s . D epending on m i l i ­ t a r y te c h n o lo g y , s t r a t e g y and t a c t i c s , i . e . , on th e u s e fu ln e s s o f d e p lo y in g la r g e num bers o f s o l d i e r s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l c o n f l i c t may a ls o have an e q u a liz in g im p a c t. These two e f f e c t s s h o u ld be d is t in g u is h e d a n a l y t i c a l l y . W h ile th e l i m i t a t i o n o f g ove rn m e n t and th e s a fe g u a rd in g o f p r i v a t e p r o p e r t y r i g h t s (w h ic h a re a lm o s t tw o s id e s o f a s in g le c o in ) prom ote fre e d o m and s e l f - d e t e r ­ m in a t io n , th e e q u a liz a t io n o f p o l i t i c a l r i g h t s may g iv e e v e ry b o d y a say i n th e e l e c t i o n o f r u l e r s w it h o u t n e c e s s a r ily l i m i t i n g s t a t e pow er and p ro m o tin g i n d i v i d u a l fre e d o m . West E uropean w e lf a r e s t a t e s d e m o n s tra te t h a t p o l i t i c a l e q u a l i t y may be c o m p a tib le w i t h th e t r a n s f e r o f more and more d e c is io n - m a k in g fro m th e i n d i v i d u a l ( o r s m a ll g ro u p s , l i k e f a m ilie s o r s m a ll b u s in e s s e s ) t o th e g o v e rn m e n t.

On th e o th e r h a n d , some s t a t e s have c o lla p s e d u n t e r e x t e r n a l p r e s s u r e . As th e I r a n i a n r e v o l u t i o n d e m o n s tra te s , s e r io u s e x t e r n a l c o n f l i c t in v o lv e m e n t i s n o t a n e c e s s a ry c o n d it io n o f c o lla p s in g s t a t e s t r u c t u r e s and r e v o l u t i o n . Nor i s i t a s u f f i c i e n t c o n d it io n even f o r le s s advanced s t a t e s c o m p e tin g w it h more advanced s t a t e s . O th e rw is e , th e S o v ie t U n io n s h o u ld have c o lla p s e d much e a r l i e r . N e ve r­

t h e le s s , e x t e r n a l p re s s u r e does com pel th e governm ents o f le s s advanced s o c ie t i e s t o p la c e s i g n i f i c a n t b u rd e n s on t h e i r s u b je c ts 16, th e r e b y r e i n f o r c i n g d o m e s tic s t r i f e . W hether th e g ove rn m e n t s im p ly c o lla p s e s because r u l i n g e l i t e s lo s e t h e i r f a i t h i n th e m s e lv e s o r because o f m i l i t a r y d e f e a t , r e v o lu t io n a r y change a f t e r t r a n s f e r s o f p o l i t i c a l pow er aim s a t b u i l d i n g s tr o n g s t a t e s , i n o r d e r t o s u r v iv e i n th e i n t e r n a t i o n a l s t r u g g le f o r p ow er. I n p u r s u in g t h i s aim r e v o lu t io n a r y re g im e s te n d to be more r u t h l e s s th a n even t r a d i t i o n a l a u t o c r a c ie s . Freedom and h uman r i g h t s and th o u s a n d s o r m i l l i o n s o f l i f e s te n d to be among th e f a t a l i t i e s o f f a s t and v i o l e n t r e v o l u t i o n s .