TRIPOD Checklist: Prediction Model Development
Section/Topic Item Checklist Item Page
Title and abstract
Title 1 Identify the study as developing and/or validating a multivariable prediction model, the target population, and the outcome to be predicted.
Abstract 2 Provide a summary of objectives, study design, setting, participants, sample size, predictors, outcome, statistical analysis, results, and conclusions.
Introduction
Background and objectives
3a Explain the medical context (including whether diagnostic or prognostic) and rationale for developing or validating the multivariable prediction model, including references to existing models.
3b Specify the objectives, including whether the study describes the development or validation of the model or both.
Methods Source of data
4a Describe the study design or source of data (e.g., randomized trial, cohort, or registry data), separately for the development and validation data sets, if applicable.
4b Specify the key study dates, including start of accrual; end of accrual; and, if applicable, end of follow-up.
Participants
5a Specify key elements of the study setting (e.g., primary care, secondary care, general population) including number and location of centres.
5b Describe eligibility criteria for participants.
5c Give details of treatments received, if relevant.
Outcome 6a Clearly define the outcome that is predicted by the prediction model, including how and when assessed.
6b Report any actions to blind assessment of the outcome to be predicted.
Predictors
7a Clearly define all predictors used in developing or validating the multivariable prediction model, including how and when they were measured.
7b Report any actions to blind assessment of predictors for the outcome and other predictors.
Sample size 8 Explain how the study size was arrived at.
Missing data 9 Describe how missing data were handled (e.g., complete-case analysis, single imputation, multiple imputation) with details of any imputation method.
Statistical analysis methods
10a Describe how predictors were handled in the analyses.
10b Specify type of model, all model-building procedures (including any predictor selection), and method for internal validation.
10d Specify all measures used to assess model performance and, if relevant, to compare multiple models.
Risk groups 11 Provide details on how risk groups were created, if done.
Results
Participants
13a
Describe the flow of participants through the study, including the number of participants with and without the outcome and, if applicable, a summary of the follow-up time. A diagram may be helpful.
13b
Describe the characteristics of the participants (basic demographics, clinical features, available predictors), including the number of participants with missing data for predictors and outcome.
Model development
14a Specify the number of participants and outcome events in each analysis.
14b If done, report the unadjusted association between each candidate predictor and outcome.
Model specification
15a Present the full prediction model to allow predictions for individuals (i.e., all regression coefficients, and model intercept or baseline survival at a given time point).
15b Explain how to the use the prediction model.
Model
performance 16 Report performance measures (with CIs) for the prediction model.
Discussion
Limitations 18 Discuss any limitations of the study (such as nonrepresentative sample, few events per predictor, missing data).
Interpretation 19b Give an overall interpretation of the results, considering objectives, limitations, and results from similar studies, and other relevant evidence.
Implications 20 Discuss the potential clinical use of the model and implications for future research.
Other information Supplementary
information 21 Provide information about the availability of supplementary resources, such as study protocol, Web calculator, and data sets.
Funding 22 Give the source of funding and the role of the funders for the present study.
We recommend using the TRIPOD Checklist in conjunction with the TRIPOD Explanation and Elaboration document.
5-6 5-6 3 2 1
4
5-6
5 6
7
-
6-7
-
7
7 8
8 8
8
14
18 16-17
18
-
-
12, Table 2
15, Table 4 9, Table 1 9, Table 1
13, Table 3
